Season Preview: San Jose Giants

First off, yes, I'm posting on Easter. Which means one of four things:

1.) I'm away from family and don't have enough money to make the trip back home by road or air
2.) I'm not religious, don't believe in Easter or any God for that matter and like to live a shallow life that is devoid of anything "spiritual."
3.) Am Jewish and celebrated Passover already.
4.) Am at home, but trying to avoid family because well...I'm  just an anti-social kind of guy that would rather spend time in front of a computer than with family.

Well, if you guessed one, you would be correct. Two or three wouldn't have been bad choices, simply because I never touch anything religious on this blog, so my religious views have been (and will remain) fairly ambiguous. And as for four, well...you just have to be a jerk to think that, so shame on you. I hope you feel better after you eat your Ham on Easter Sunday.

Bitterness aside, on to the 2012 preview of the San Jose Giants.


2011 Recap:

The San Jose Giants got off to a roaring start to begin the year, as they finished the first half with an unreal record of 51-19, good for the best record in the Cal League overall at the time. The Giants finished the first half 13 games ahead of second place Stockton, and 16 games ahead of third place Bakersfield. Considering the Giants past history of success in the California League (they have been in the title hunt consistently the past five years), the Giants looked primed for another run at the CL championship in 2011.

However, with the callups of Chris Dominguez, Francisco Peguero and Heath Hembree to Richmond by mid-season, a trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets (in the Carlos Beltran) and a mid-season slump by top prospect Gary Brown, the Giants regressed in the second half, going 38-32 over their next 70 games. The Giants did have a chance to win the Northern Division at the end of the year, but they ended up losing out to Stockton in the Northern Division Championship series. Still, at 90-50, it was an impressive year overall for the South Bay Giants, and the fans took notice, as they finished with the second-best attendance in the Cal League.

Offensively, everything began and ended with Brown, whose strong campaign in the Cal League garnered him honors as the Giants' top prospect going into 2012 by almost every publication and analyst. Brown posted a slash of .336/.407/.519 and added a .925 OPS to go along with 14 home runs, 115 runs scored and 53 stolen bases. For his efforts, Brown was named the 2011 Cal League Rookie of the Year and also earned a spot in the Futures Game at All-Star Weekend.

However, Brown wasn't the only bat that stood out in San Jose. Before getting call ups to Fresno and San Francisco, catcher Hector Sanchez went from middling catcher prospect to a Top-10 system guy after lighting up Cal League pitching in only 52 games. The 21-year-old Venezuelan put up a .302/.338/.533 line in 228 plate appearances and also added 11 home runs and 58 RBI to his already gaudy averages. Fellow countryman Ehire Adrianza sparked the Giants offense in the second half after Peguero and Dominguez moved up to Richmond, as the slick-fielding shorstop posted a career best slash of .300/.375/.470 in 262 plate appearances.

While the offense was a force for San Jose in 2011, the pitching was sneakily good, even after they lost Wheeler in the Beltran trade. The Giants pitching staff finished first in the Cal League runs allowed per game at 4.21, which was 0.80 runs better than second place Stockton. San Jose also finished with the league's best team ERA at 3.70 (they were the only CL team under 4.00) and second-best WHIP at 1.33 (only .04 behind first-place Stockton).

While Wheeler was the Giants' most dynamic pitcher in his tenure in San Jose (he struck out 98 in 88 innings pitched), he was far from the best pitcher statistically on the San Jose roster in 2011. The rotation was led by the three-headed-force of Craig Westcott, Chris Heston and Kelvin Marte, who all threw over 145 innings in 2011, and posted sub-4 ERAs (3.42, 3.16, 3.47, respectively). Though he finished a win behind Westcott in the W-L column, Heston was the most impressive of the three as he finished with the best K/BB ratio (3.28), K/9 (7.8), HA/9 (8.6) of the bunch. Heston was 23 years old last year, so he was around league average when it came to age (the average age of CL pitchers was 23.2 last year), but he certainly has the potential to be a strong contributor to the rotation in Richmond in 2012.

After Hembree dominated the CL (21 saves, 0.73 ERA, 16.1 K/9) and predictably earned a call up to the Eastern League, Jake Dunning and Mitch Lively split closer duties to mixed results. While Dunning did earn 10 saves, he posted a 4.74 ERA and allowed 10.2 hits per nine innings. While he did post solid K/BB ratios (2.96), Dunning has to improve his ability to limit contact if he wants to survive in the move to the Eastern League this upcoming season.

As for Lively, though an older prospect at 25 years old, he finished the year with nice numbers, recording 8 saves and posting a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 38 appearances and 17 games finished. Lively will be 26 years old and will bypass Richmond and begin the year in Triple-A Fresno.


Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?

San Jose should be a nice showcase for 2011 Giants draft picks, as catcher Andrew Susac, first baseman Ricky Oropesa, and first round pick, shortstop Joe Panik will all begin the year in the Cal League. So far, the results have been a little mixed for Oropesa and Susac, as they are batting .250 and .231 after three games, respectively. However, it is still VERY early in the season, and they could bounce those numbers up with a solid game today against Modesto.

As for Panik, he is continuing where he left off in the Northwest League, as he is putting up a slash of .400/.538/.600 in 10 at-bats. Panik has recorded two doubles and three walks and no strikeouts going into today's game. As he showed last year in Salem Keizer, Panik's mature skills and approach has illustrated why the Giants took him in the first round of the draft last season (despite the scoffs of many scouts and experts). I expect Panik to really stand out this year and have a breakout season similar to Brown a year ago, though without the speed or home run numbers (though I think he could come close in the home runs and I think their slugging percentages will be similar because of Panik's ability to hit to the gaps).

One of the big under-the-radar prospects to watch for San Jose is Adam Duvall, who is coming off a sensational year in Augusta where he posted a .912 OPS to go along with 22 home runs. Duvall shares a similar prospect profile to Chris Dominguez in the sense that they are both from the University of Louisville and both third base prospects. While he doesn't have the athleticism or plus tools of Dominguez, Duvall's Sally numbers in 2011 were more impressive than Dominguez's 2010. While he hasn't gotten of to the best start (Duvall has struck six times in 12 at-bats and has no walks and only one hit), he could be a key component to this Giants offense in 2012.

Another infield prospect to watch out for will be Carter Jurica, a 2010 draft pick who split last year between the Arizona Rookie League and the Cal League. Jurica posted a .250/.355/.383 slash last year in San Jose, and also added four home runs and five stolen bases. Most of Jurica's value comes defensively, as he has been noted for his solid though unspectacular glove up the middle. He and Panik should provide a very interesting double play combo up the middle, and are expected to rotate between second and shortstop throughout the year.

The outfield will be led Jarett Parker, who'll be making his second tour of duty in the Cal League in 2012. While Parker displayed nice power potential (13 home runs), and a patient approach (.360 OBP, 0.51 BB/K ratio, 74 walks in 571 plate appearances), he struggled in terms of making consistent contact at the plate, as evidenced by his .260 average, 70 percent contact rate, and team-leading 144 strikeouts. I don't expect Parker to stay the whole year in San Jose, as I think he is due for a call up to Richmond at some point this year simply because of his age (he'll be 23). However, he does need to show progress at the plate in terms of making better contact if he wants to be taken more seriously as a prospect. Right now, his stock has regressed since he was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft, and he looks to be way behind outfielder prospects such as Brown and Peguero.

The rest of the outfield looks pretty thin, as Ryan Lollis and Chris Lofton will look to contribute to the Giants lineup. Lollis put up stellar numbers in Augusta last year, posting a slash of .314/.393/.422 and an OPS of .816 in .296 at-bats, but he struggled in call ups to San Jose and Richmond, posting OPS numbers of .627 and .444, respectively. Lofton is a strong athlete who was rated by Baseball America as being the best athlete of any Giants pick other than Brown in the 2010 draft. A ninth round pick, Lofton put up a pedestrian .615 OPS in 418 at-bats in Augusta. He did steal 22 bags with the Green Jackets, but he was caught 14 times, a sign that his instincts on the basepaths aren't that great and are in need of improvement in San Jose. However with his athleticism, Lofton has a lot of potential to be a contributor to this San Jose lineup in 2012.



Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?

Shawn Sanford and Taylor Rogers led the Green Jackets rotation in 2011 and will be expected to do the same in San Jose in 2012. Sanford's 10-10 record doesn't impress, but he did post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 3.57 in the Sally a year ago. Sanford's strength as a pitcher is his control, as he walked only 30 batters in 169.2 innings pitched (good for a BB/9 of 1.7). That being said, while his control,  command and ability to keep the ball on the ground to limit hits has been impressive (1.69 GO/AO last year), he doesn't possess overwhelming stuff or strikeout prowess. Last year, his K/9 was only 5.7, a regression from the 8.6 mark he put up in 2010 in Salem Keizer. It'll be interesting to see how well he keeps batters at bay in the Cal League in 2012, especially considering the park factors and t he'll be around league average age-wise for a pitcher at 23 years old. He's off to a good start as he went six innings and allowed only three hits and no runs while walking one and striking out one in his debut start of the 2012 season (which resulted in a win for San Jose credited to Sanford).

As for Rogers, while his 2012 debut wasn't as impressive as Sanford's (he went five innings and allowed seven hits, two runs and a walk; but he did strike out seven and earned the win), he does share a similar profile to Sanford as a pitcher, even though he is a year older. Much like Sanford, Rogers showed good command in Augusta last year (2.26 K/BB ratio) and a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground (2.11 GO/AO ratio last year with the Green Jackets). However, he doesn't blow away hitters (5.0 K/9) and he can prove to be quite hittable (career H/9 of 9.3). While Sanford's age and skills give him a little bit more upside, Rogers could prove to be a good No. 2 guy in the San Jose rotation in 2012.

The Giants will have wild cards on the staff in Stephen Harrold, Seth Rosin, Josh Osich and Edward Concepcion, who will all be in the Giants bullpen to begin the year in 2012 (though Rosin and Osich have starter potential). Harrold was rated as the 25th best prospect in the Giants system, according to Baseball America, and Rosin is a power-armed right hander who has cracked the Top 30 in many lists. Both have showed a strong ability to strike batters out over the course of their minor league careers (Harrold has a minor league career K/9 of 9.3 while Rosin is just a notch below at 9.2), but they don't have very high ceilings as older, polished arms out of college.

Osich is a big wild card because it is unknown if the Giants will keep him in the bullpen or if they might move him into the rotation eventually. Osich started in college at Oregon State (and excelled as he threw a no-hitter against UCLA last year), but he had arm issues that could have been related to TJ surgery in 2009 (which forced him to miss 2010) and was shut down for the remainder of the 2011 season (which ended hurting his draft stock as he fell to the Giants' slot in the sixth round; he originally had first round/supplemental round potential pre-shut down). While it is probably wise to ease Osich into professional pitching by keeping him in the pen to begin the year, I do hope Giants management somehow works him into the rotation at some point this year. He has the ability to start, as evidenced by his track record in college, along with a repertoire that includes a solid fastball that touches 97 MPH, and a slider and changeup that have average to slightly above potential. A move of Osich to the rotation would increase his value significantly, and make him a steal as a sixth-round selection.

A sleeper out of the bullpen to watch out for is Concepcion, as he has showed a strong ability to strike batters out (career 9.1 K/9), but has had significant command and control issues as well. After a disastrous stint in the Northwest League which saw him post a 6.39 ERA and K/BB ratio of 1.24 (a minor league career low, and that includes his stint in the DSL) in 63.1 IP as a starter, Concepcion bounced back with a move to the pen in Augusta and posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.72 K/BB ratio in 52.1 IP. Concepcion still walked hitters in bunches (6.2 BB/9), but he did strike out 10.7 batters per nine innings, his best total in that category since his stint in the Arizona Rookie League (when it was 11.5). If Concepcion can harness his control even a little bit, he could be a very valuable arm in the San Jose bullpen this year, and could see his stock as a prospect rise by the end of the season simply because of his ability to strike batters out.


What Should We Expect from the Giants in 2012?

San Jose has been one of the strengths in the Giants' system "team-wise" for a while. They have consistently competed for Cal League titles while at the same time developing talent that has progressed nicely in their system. Of course, it's always tough to judge prospects (hitters especially) in the Cal League because of the offensive-friendly park factors. We have seen many hitters mash in the Cal League, only to be fully exposed in their transition to the Double-A Eastern League. This year, the offense will attract a lot of attention, especially with 2011 Draft picks Panik, Susac and Oropesa expected to get a lot of at-bats. Past those though (and maybe Duvall), the talent offensively does drop off quite a bit. I'm not a big believe in Lofton, and Jurica seems to be backup material at the Major League level at best. Furthermore, the pitching seems less strong in comparison to years past, as the staff lacks that front line starter they've sported in years past (Wheeler last year, Surkamp two years ago, Bumgarner and Alderson in 2009).

I think San Jose has produced a clubhouse environment where the team will always be competitive and I don't expect that to stop in 2012. However, considering how reliant they will be on offense (and considering this is Susac and Oropesa's first exposure to professional pitching, that's a big risk), and how thin the pitching looks, I expect a big regression for the CL Giants in 2012 from their 90-50 record a year ago.

Season Preview: Augusta Green Jackets

With Opening Day happening across the Minor League yesterday, I figured it would be good to take a look at what Giants fans could expect from the teams in the Giants organization. I'm going to start with the lower levels first and move my way up. Since the Arizona Rookie League, the Northwest League and Dominican Summer League don't start until later in the season, I'm going to start with the Giants' Sally team, the Augusta Green Jackets.


2011 Recap:

It was a tale of two seasons for the Green Jackets, as they got off to a slow start in 2011. They finished the first half 31-39, good for fifth place in the Southern Division. However, a couple of roster moves and some better play sparked them in the second half, as they finished with the best record in the Southern Division after the break at 39-29. While they still finished behind the Savannah Sand Gants (the Mets organization) in the overall standings, the 70-68 record was still a promising end for a team that had its share of struggles in the beginning of the year.

The Green Jackets relied on their pitching as they finished sixth best in the league in runs allowed per game at 4.43 and fourth in ERA at 3.70. Shawn Sanford, Stan Rogers and Mike Kickham provided good production at the top of the rotation, as they each threw over 100 innings and posted ERA numbers of 2.55, 2.91, and 4.11, respectively. Seth Rosin proved to be an excellent spot starter for the Green Jackets, as he struck out 93 batters in 89 innings pitched while posting an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.25. The bullpen also got a bounce back season from Edward Concepcion, who struck out 62 batters in 52.1 IP. While Concepcion still sports control issues (his K/BB ratio was 1.72), the performance was a nice sign for a prospect whose stock took a serious drop in 2010.

Offensively, Augusta struggled to score runs, as they finished fifth-worst in the Sally in runs scored per game at 4.43 and fourth-worst in OPS at .693. Despite the lackluster team showing, the Green Jackets did have some position players who made solid contributions during the 2011 season.

Though overshadowed by Chris Dominguez since college (they both were third basemen from the University of Louisville), Adam Duvall had a breakout year, posting a .285/.385/.527 slash with a team leading .917 OPS and 22 home runs. Outfielder Ryan Lollis also had a solid 80-game stint before he made the move to San Jose, as he posted a slash of .314/.393/.422 with an OPS of .816. While he struggled at the end of the year to post a pedestrian .650 OPS, Carlos Willoughby was a catalyst for the most part at the top of the order, as he showed a patient approach at the plate (.343 OBP, 0.73 BB/K ratio) and some speed on the basepaths (a team-high 33 stolen bases). Though he is repeating the year in Augusta, Willoughby is somebody to keep an eye on, especially to start the year.




Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?

The outfield will be intriguing as Chuckie Jones, Brett Krill and Shawn Payne will look to be the regular starting outfield during the 2012 season. Jones is a super-athlete with plus power, arm strength and speed tools (a lot of scouts have made Matt Kemp comparisons because of his background), but he has struggled to make contact over the course of his Minor League career (61 percent contact rate in Salem Keizer a year ago). Krill was a low-round pick in the Giants' 2010 Draft (25th round), but he is coming off a sensational campaign with the Volcanoes where he put up a slash of .304/.350/.488 along with six home runs and four stolen bases in 226 plate appearances. Payne is a toolsy-outfielder who has "Fred Lewis" potential, as he sports a patient approach at the plate, and good speed and instincts on the basepaths (though he doesn't sport a lot of raw power, as he hit no home runs a year ago).  Payne put up a slash of .306/.431/.394 and stole 21 bases on 27 attempts in 195 plate appearances in the NWL last year.

In addition to Willoughby, shortstop Kelby Tomlinson will be an infielder to watch out for this year in Augusta. Baseball America rated Tomlinson with the best speed tool set and the best athleticism out of any Giants draft pick in the 2011 draft (the Giants selected him in the 12th round). Tomlinson however is not just all tools, as he roped pitching in the Arizona Rookie League last year. He posted a slash of .357/.417/.543 in 156 plate appearances. While he doesn't sport "home run power", Tomlinson has showed a strong ability to stretch out hits, as he hit 10 doubles, 5 triples and two home runs in the AZL. He does have to improve his concentration in the field if he wants to continue to stick at shortstop (10 errors, .924 fielding percentage last year), but scouts note that he has the tools and potential to be an above-average defensive shortstop as he moves up the system.



Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?

The strength of the Green Jackets' roster is in the rotation, as there will be many arms to watch out for in Augusta in 2012. The roster is filled with projectable, high-ceiling arms who not only could be impact prospects in the Giants system, but could help make this Green Jackets team competitive in the Sally Southern conference.

In terms of starting pitching, Clayton Blackburn, Kyle Crick and Adalberto Mejia will anchor the top of the rotation. Blackburn started on Opening Day for the Jackets and performed well as he struck out six and walked zero while allowing four hits in 4.2 innings pitched. Blackburn is a big (six-foot, three-inches, 220 pounds) powerful arm that showed impeccable command in the Arizona Rookie League as an 18 year old. Crick also shares a similar profile to Blackburn, as he is a powerful prep arm out of Texas who was the Giants' supplemental round pick in the 2011 draft. Crick has more control and command issues than Blackburn at this point in his career (he walked eight and allowed nine hits in seven innings pitched in the Arizona Rookie League last year), but he is only 19 years old, was rated more highly by scouts than Blackburn out of high school, and still has a lot of time for development on the mound.

Mejia is a big surprise to make the Green Jackets roster, as many figured Joan Gregorio would be starting the year in Augusta instead of Mejia. However, though this is Mejia's first exposure Stateside, he was absolutely dominant in the Dominican Summer League in 2011. He struck out 71 and walked only eight batters in 76 innings pitched, and he finished the year with the DSL Giants with a 5-2 record and 1.42 ERA. It'll be interesting to see how Mejia fares in the Sally as a raw 18-year-old (he'll turn 19 in June) out of the Dominican, but he has the size (six-foot, three-inches and 195 pounds) and skills to project as a good starting pitching prospect not only this year, but for years to come.

Some sleepers in the Giants' pitching rotation are Demondre Arnold, Bryce Bandilla and Chris Marlowe, all picks in the Giants' 2011 draft. Arnold is a raw right hander out of junior college, but scouts have noted his impressive stuff and his strong performance last year in the Arizona Rookie League bullpen. In 26.2 IP, Arnold struck out 32 batters, allowed 16 hits and 8 walks as a nineteen year old. While he is expected to be in the Green Jackets bullpen, his excellent command and strikeout ability should make him a solid late innings option for the Green Jackets in 2012.

Bandilla and Marlowe are college prospects who come out of Arizona and Oklahoma State, respectively. While control has been an issue for them in their college careers, they have excellent stuff and strikeout potential, and could be fast risers in the Giants system, especially if they stay in the pen. Marlowe could compete for the setup or closer's position with Arnold, while Bandilla could be the first left-handed pitcher out of the pen in the late innings. While they didn't get much playing time after signing (Bandilla didn't play while Marlowe threw only three innings in the AZL; he did strike out five in three innings of work though), they do offer some upside and will be interesting arms to watch. If they do well, don't be surprised to see a second half promotion for both of these guys in the second half of the year.



What Should We Expect from the Green Jackets in 2012?

The Green Jackets have a solid pitching staff that could carry them, especially in the beginning of the year. While the offense has some interesting players with strong tools (Jones, especially), I would be surprised to see the Green Jackets surpass their offensive production from a year ago, especially with their main run producer, Duvall, now playing in San Jose. However, if Willoughby can have a year that was more similar to his first half and not his second half, than the Green Jackets might be able to muster enough offense, especially with a pitching staff that sports so much potential. I don't know if Augusta will be able to compete for a Sally title, but they certainly have the potential to be a dark horse, especially if guys like Jones and Tomlinson can back up their prospect hype with solid seasons at the plate in the Sally.

The 2010 San Francisco Giants Minor League Preview

The 2010 season is officially on its way in San Francisco, with the home opener against Atlanta looming tomorrow. While Opening Week is near the end of its run in the Major Leagues, today, the Giants' minor league organizations begin their own Opening Days, respectively.

What should Giants fans expect this season after the Giants combined farm system finished with the best record out of any other organization in baseball? Which guys will be seeing callups in 2010, and which guys are probably a year or two away from seeing a Giants uniform?

Here is an in-depth look at what Giants fans should watch for in the Giants' minor league system this year.


Most Interesting Team to Watch: Fresno Grizzlies

The Grizzlies top to bottom are stacked. They have a great starting pitching staff, headlined by Madison Bumgarner, the Giants' pitching phenom who happened to be a candidate for the No. 5 spot in the rotation this Spring, and Kevin Pucetas, who pitched all last year in Fresno to varying results (10-6, 5.04 ERA). However, it doesn't end there with Bumgarner and Pucetas. Joe Martinez contributed at the Major League level last year, and is looking to bounce back in Fresno after having an up and down 2009, and Horacio Ramirez is a left-handed Major League veteran who had his best days in Atlanta.

Yet it's not just the starting rotation that makes the Grizzlies such an interesting team to watch. Their bullpen is stocked with second-chance veterans (Denny Bautista, Felix Romero), questionable, older prospects with upside (Alex Hinshaw, Osiris Matos, Eric Hacker, Geno Espineli), and promising young arms (Henry Sosa, Steve Edlefsen). Though Bumgarner and Pucetas may receive a majority of the hype in 2010, the Grizzlies bullpen may be a strong aspect of this Grizzlies team. It is very reasonable to think that not only will many of the arms in the bullpen will find success in Fresno in 2010, but it is also likely that many will see opportunities at the Major League level over the course of the season.

Offensively, the Grizzlies will sport some familiar faces (Jesus Guzman, Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, Steve Holm), but there are also some fresh new faces who are looking to make an impact after having success in Double-A Connecticut. Brock Bond, Mike McBryde and Brett Pill (who made the 40-man roster this year) are all capable of having good seasons in the Pacific Coast League.

The biggest offensive player to watch, however? That honor goes to Buster Posey. It will only be a short matter of time before we see Posey behind the plate in a Giants uniform, but for now, Grizzlies fans will reap the benefits of Posey "developing" behind the plate in Triple-A.


Least Interesting Team to Watch: San Jose Giants

Last year, San Jose fans were spoiled. They started the year with three top pitchers in their rotation (Bumgarner, Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes), a top arm in their bullpen (Dan Runzler), a stacked outfield (Thomas Neal, Darren Ford, Roger Kieschnick) and a promising infield (Conor Gillaspie, Brandon Crawford, Nick Noonan).

No wonder they were the best team in the Giants' minor league organization last year.

This year though, the roster isn't quite as enticing. Though the Giants will sport promising shortstop and defensive wizard Ehire Adrianza, centerfielder Francisco Peguero (who is on the Giants' 40-man roster) and former first round pick Wendell Fairley, for the most part, nobody offensively jumps out at you.

As far as the pitching is concerned, Aaron King and Eric Surkamp are two lefties to watch and could be contributing to the Giants in a couple of years. Unfortunately, after King and Surkamp, the quality of the pitching seems to dip (though it wouldn't be surprising to see Zach Wheeler see some time in San Jose mid-season should he perform well in Augusta).

Sorry San Jose fans, but it doesn't look like the Giants will be repeating as California League champs. 


Wild Card Team: Richmond Flying Squirrels

Whether or not you like the name, the Richmond roster will be a very peculiar team in 2010. They could either be incredibly solid, or could struggle in the transition to the Eastern League.

If anything, the inaugural Richmond squad looks like the San Jose Giants 2.0. Gillaspie will be starting at third, Crawford at shortstop and Nick Noonan at second. It is the same story in the outfield, as Neal, Ford and Kieschnick will patrol left, center and right field, respectively.

Offensively there is a lot to like, as they are solid all-around. Yet while the Flying Squirrels will most likely score plenty of runs, their pitching is a different story.

With Sosa and Edlefsen getting the callup to Triple-A, and Surkamp and King still in High-A ball, Richmond will be relying heavily on Clayton Tanner and Daniel Turpen to carry this squad. Tanner had a solid season in San Jose, posting a 3.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 2.88 K/BB ratio in 26 games last year. Turpen was solid out of the bullpen as well in San Jose, as evidenced by his 1.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 46 appearances.

However, Turpen's  low strikeout rate (7.6) and questionable K/BB ratio (2.50) last season prevent Giants fans from totally buying in on Turpen's potential. If he can improve those numbers, it would not be surprising to see Turpen in Fresno, especially should an injury happen to the San Francisco bullpen.

Tony Pena, Jr. the former Royals "shortstop of the future" turned pitcher will also be an interesting guy to watch in Richmond. While he is still developing as a pitcher, he has decent enough stuff (his fastball averaged 89.8 MPH in 2008 with the Royals) to at least get a shot in the Majors.


Most Overblown Storyline: Madison Bumgarner's Velocity

That is all we have heard this off-season concerning Bumgarner. That is all we have heard this Spring. Chances are, that's all we're going to hear about this Minor League season.

"What about Bumgarner's velocity?"

Now, I'm not saying that the Giants or Giants fans should ignore this completely. After all, it is concerning when a primarily fastball-throwing pitcher suddenly dips under 90 MPH at only 20 years of age. There should be research to find out if this is a mechanical issue, a health issue or perhaps an issue of overblown scouting reports.

That being said, the biggest question that needs to be asked isn't "How's Bumgarner's velocity looking in Fresno?"

Instead, what everyone should be asking is "How well is Bumgarner pitching in Fresno in general?"

If Bumgarner's fastball is only hovering around the 87-90 MPH range, but he's still posting decent K/BB ratios and WHIP numbers, then you know what? I don't care about the velocity. Does velocity help in terms of reaching success at the Major League level? Sure, but it doesn't always guarantee success. Ask Merkin Valdez about it sometime.


Best Position Battles: Matt Downs/Brock Bond at Second Base (Triple-A) and Tommy Joseph/Hector Sanchez at Catcher (Single-A)

I couldn't pick between the two so I decided to list them both. Sure, there are other position battles going on throughout the Giants system, but it goes without saying that these two will be the most interesting (and impacting) ones.

In terms of the first one, the Grizzlies will have quite a dilemma at second base. Matt Downs is coming off a solid spring, where he batted .356 and scored eight runs in 45 at-bats, and a quietly good 2009 in Fresno where he hit .300 with 14 home runs, 74 RBI, and posted a wOBA (weighted on-base average) of .365. Brock Bond, however, is no slouch. Bond led the Eastern League in batting (.333) and on-base percentage (.429) and also scored 93 runs while posting a wOBA of .381 with the Connecticut Defenders (the Giants former Double-A club) in 2009.

Both guys offer different skill sets, with different strengths and weaknesses. While both are solid fielders (Downs sported a 4.3 RF/G with the Giants in 2009; Bond posted a 4.35 RF/G in Connecticut) Downs is more similar to former Giants second-base prospect Kevin Frandsen (who is now with the Red Sox organization). He doesn't draw a whole lot of walks (5.4 percent BB/9 rate last year) but he doesn't strike out a whole lot either (13.7 percent K/9, 0.43 BB/K ratio). Downs does offer some power upside (he hit 14 homer runs last year, and 17 home runs in San Jose in 2008) in comparison to Bond (two home runs total in professional career; .076 ISO in 2009).

Bond has also shown a tremendous ability to avoid strike outs (he only had a 15.3 percent rate last year), but unlike Downs, Bond may be better at drawing walks. He had a 12.6 percent walk rate last year, and a BB/K ratio of 0.97. Those numbers aren't a fluke either, as he has owned a BB/K ratio of 2.00, 1.24, 0.65, and 0.65 from Rookie to High-A ball.

In addition to being a solid contact hitter and on-base guy, Bond can also swipe the occasional base. Though his percentage was not good last year (46 percent), he did steal 13 bases and could be a good bet for ten or so bags at the big-league level.

With Freddy Sanchez holding the second-base job down when he returns from the disabled list, and Juan Uribe the primary utility infielder, chances are, both guys will be staying in Fresno a lot longer than they would like.

In terms of the second position battle, it will be a battle between two young, highly hyped catchers. Tommy Joseph was the Giants' second round pick (55th overall) in the 2009 draft, and there is a lot of promise that comes along with the Arizona native. Joseph  is known for his offense (he hit .442 with 15 home runs his senior year in high school) and power (apparently, he held his own in a home run contest against "Baseball's Lebron James" Bryce Harper).

There are concerns though about his defensive ability, for he only played one year of catcher in high school at Horizon High in Arizona (the same high school Tim Alderson went too). Despite most people saying he may (or perhaps should) move back to first base, Joseph has stated that he wants to play catcher at the professional level.

Regardless of Joseph's hype and the $712,500 signing bonus he was given, he certainly is going to have some competition at the position in Sanchez. In 2008 in the Dominican Summer League, Sanchez hit .348 with four home runs and 63 RBI in 55 games. In 2009 in the Arizona Rookie League, he hit .299 with a .403 OBP, .810 OPS and a .387 wOBA. While he only hit one home run in 139 plate appearances, his plate patience made up for his lack of power. He sported a walk rate of 11.5 percent, a strikeout rate of 17.9 percent and a BB/K ratio of 0.76.

Add that with solid defense (he threw out 45 percent of base runners attempting to steal), and it's easy to see why Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet listed Sanchez as a 2010 Sleeper in his Minor League Review of the 2009 Giants.


The Giants' "Crash Davis" (e.g. He's not seeing the Major Leagues anytime soon): Eddy Martinez-Esteve

Martinez-Esteve has been in the minors since 2004. A second-round pick out of Florida State, Martinez-Esteve was being hailed as the next Manny Ramirez by some Giants fans. He hit for incredible power at Florida State (20 home runs, .385 average, 1.164 OPS his last year with the Seminoles), but unfortunately, it hasn't translated to the professional level. While he did hit .313 with 17 home runs and posted an OPS of .951 in San Jose in 2005, Martinez-Esteve hasn't been the same since that offensive explosion in the California League.

After injury sidelined him to 27 games in Connecticut in 2006, it has been a long road back for Martinez-Esteve. In 2007, he played in Arizona, San Jose and Connecticut, but didn't produce much at either stop. While his .310 average in Arizona Rookie League was nice, he only hit .207 in 82 at-bats in San Jose and .239 in 134 at-bats in Connecticut. And if that wasn't painful enough, he only hit one home run TOTAL in 2007.

In 2008 and 2009, he started the season in Connecticut and never advanced beyond Double-A. While his batting averages were decent (.298 and .291 in 2008 and 2009, respectively), and his BB/K ratios were very solid (1.46 in 2008; 0.76 in 2009), the power that he showed in college and in High-A hasn't seemed to come back. In 445 plate appearances in 2008, Martinez-Esteve hit six home runs. In 491 plate appearances last year, he hit only eight home runs.

With nowhere to go, Martinez-Esteve will start the year in Fresno, competing with Joe Borchard, newly-converted outfielder Jesus Guzman and Ben Copeland for a spot in right field.

Like Davis in the movie "Bull Durham," I wouldn't be surprised to see Martinez-Esteve stick, if not bounce around, the minors this year while other guys around him get callups to the big leagues. At this point, it just seems as if the Big League ship has sailed on Martinez-Esteve.


Minor League/Major League Late Bloomer: Alex Hinshaw

A lot of people either like Hinshaw or they don't. I can't blame them. While the guy has shown an incredible ability to strike guys out (he hasn't had a K/9 under 10 in the minors, and in 2008 he sported a K/9 of 10.66), his control problems can be flat out irritating (6.58 walk rate in 2008 in San Francisco; 5.50 walk rate last season in Fresno).

However, he had, for the most part, a solid Spring Training this year, and I get the feeling that while his walk numbers won't be great (he walked seven in 7.2 innings pitched this Spring), they will be low enough so that his strikeout rates will overshadow his control issues (he struck out nine batters this Spring).

If he can get his walk numbers in the three range (not impossible in my mind), then I think Hinshaw will have another very good year in the bullpen in Fresno. (He sported a 2.30 BB/9 in 2008 in 13 games in Fresno, and he had a 3.76 BB/9 in 38.1 IP in Double-A in 2007.) Granted, this Giants team doesn't need much bullpen help at this moment. If somebody falters though (cough...Medders...cough), don't be surprised to see Hinshaw as the first or second pitcher callup. Not only is he capable of putting up sterling numbers in Fresno, he can do it in the Majors as well.

If he gets his control under-wraps, of course. Unfortunately for Hinshaw, that's a big "IF" if you look at his seven walks and ten hits allowed in six innings at the Major League level last year. (Though, despite those numbers, I'm still willing to take a chance on it coming together for Hinshaw anyways)

"Giants" Enemy Lines: The NL West Preview

It's finally here. I'm sorry for the delay. It's been tough balancing two blogs (this and 500 Days of Zobrist, the fantasy baseball blog) so I've kind of slacked a little the past week on posts here at Remember '51.

However, here is Remember '51's complete NL West Preview, with each team by team breakdown (including your very own San Francisco Giants).


Arizona Diamondbacks
2009 results: 70-92 (last in the NL West).
2010 projections: 82-80 (PECOTA; tied for third in NL West)


The Diamondbacks in 2009

The Diamondbacks suffered a huge letdown season last year after finishing second in the division in 2008, and making the playoffs in 2007. The main problems for Arizona last season? Management change, injuries and general ineffectiveness by their players.

First off, Arizona changed managers last season after 29 games, firing manager Bob Melvin and replacing him with A.J. Hinch, the Diamondbacks' farm director at the time. The move was surprising because a.) Hinch had no managerial experience at the time, and b.) it seemed he was being groomed to be a future "general" manager rather than a "field" manager (hence, him working as the manager of minor league operations).

Well, the relationship never really clicked, and the Diamondbacks tanked. It wasn't completely his fault tho. Brandon Webb went down to injury, and promising players like Chris Young, Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson and even Stephen Drew all had down years. Dan Haren had another solid campaign, and Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds and Miguel Montero all showed promise of being future stars, but for the most part, the Diamondbacks didn't get a whole lot of consistent contribution from their roster, hence their last place finish in 2009.

Why the Diamondbacks Can Be Good in 2010

The young talent is in place. Though Drew is coming off a bad year, he certainly has enough promise to bounce back to his 2008 form (.291 average, 21 home runs, .836 OPS, 13.6 wRAA in 2008), and his plate approach was actually better in 2009 (0.56 BB/K ratio in 2009 in comparison to 0.38 ratio in 2008). Also, Haren and Upton are studs. Reynolds, Webb and Montero are big question marks, but if they continue to progress, they could have real impact on this team in 2010.

Furthermore, the Diamondbacks made some interesting moves that could work out for better. Edwin Jackson definitely is a talent, and made a step last year in Detroit to prove that he is on the cusp of being one of the game's better pitchers. Also, the acquisition of Ian Kennedy also adds depth to their starting rotation, something they didn't really have in 2009. If the hitting can bounce back, the pitching will look a whole lot better in 2010 than in 2009, which consequently will have a big effect on their record.

Why the Diamondbacks Might Be Bad in 2010

A lot of question marks surround this team. Can A.J. Hinch manage this ballclub after failing to motivate them in 2009? Can Brandon Webb be healthy? Can Dan Haren get some run support? Is Chad Qualls a top-tier closer or just another good reliever? Is Mark Reynolds a one-year wonder or a consistent power threat? Can Justin Upton carry this offense? Can Stephen Drew return to 2008 form? Can Edwin Jackson repeat his first-half stats in 2009 over the course of a full-season?

In my mind, the Diamondbacks have more questions than any other team in the NL West. So, while the Diamondbacks have potential to be solid players in the National League race, they could also fall apart as easily as last year if a lot of their players don't bounce back and produce.

What's my gut feeling about a lot of these questions? I don't think Webb will be back to his Cy-Young form, I think Reynolds won't repeat his 2009 numbers, I think Jackson is good but not great (Max Scherzer was a much better fit for this team), and Haren will get more run support than in 2009, but not that much.

Remember '51 Projection: 78-84 (fourth in the NL West)

The Diamondbacks have an interesting pitching core in Haren, Webb, Jackson and Kennedy and an even more interesting offensive core in Montero, Reynolds, Upton and Drew. My main beef is that I can't get a good read on these players. In my opinion, I think half of these "core" guys will flourish (Upton, Drew, Haren) and half will most likely not (Reynolds, Webb, Kennedy). So, I think Diamondbacks will flounder around .500 the whole year. They won't be out of it early, but they won't be serious contenders like a lot of people think.


Colorado Rockies
2009 results: 92-70 (second in NL West; NL Wild-Card winners)
2010 projections: 86-76 (PECOTA; first in NL West)

The Rockies in 2009

The Rockies were a tale of two teams last year: the team under Clint Hurdle, and the team post-Clint Hurdle.

To start off the year, the Rockies seemed to be a tremendous disappointment. At the time of Hurdle's firing, the Rockies were 18-28 and many thought general manager Dan O'Dowd was in the midst of another rebuilding season in Colorado.

Then Jim Tracy took over, the Rockies got hot, and eventually took second place from the San Francisco Giants, as well as the NL Wild Card spot. Though the Phillies bounced the Rockies in the NLDS, it was a successful season for the Rockies, who got big-time performances from hitters Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ian Stewart and solid pitching seasons from Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jorge de la Rosa, Huston Street, and Jason Marquis.

Why the Rockies Can Be Good in 2010

The Rockies have a chance to be not only contenders in the NL West, but perhaps in Major League baseball as well. They return their entire, young core from last year, and shed all the spare parts they didn't need (Garrett Atkins) this off-season. Furthermore, the Rockies will also welcome back Jeff Francis, one of the Rockies' aces in 2007, who is coming back after missing the entire 2009 season to injury.

The Rockies lineup will be absolutely stacked, especially in outfielder where Gonzalez will play left, Fowler center, and Hawpe right. While Hawpe may be a detriment to the Rockies defensively, no baseball fan can doubt the offensive potency of that trio in the lineup.

There are some question marks with the pitching staff (mostly concerning de la Rosa and his high walk rates). However, Rockies fans have to be happy with the progress of Ubaldo Jimenez, who had the highest VORP (value over replacement player) of any pitcher on the Rockies staff last year according to Baseball Prospectus.

Why the Rockies Might Be Bad in 2010

If there is one thing you can say about the Rockies it is this: they don't necessarily have a track record for consistency. After winning the NL Pennant in 2007, the Rockies tanked in 2008, going 74-88. Could the same be in store for them in 2010? Sure, they have a new manager in Tracy, but one has to wonder if the Rockies are the kind of franchise that can put together back-to-back solid seasons. In their short history, they haven't necessarily proven that.

To make matters worse, the Rockies are dealing with some serious issues in the pitching category, especially at closer. Huston Street was shut-down this Spring, and most likely will begin the season on the Disabled List. Now, he could be back by May 1, but one has to wonder: can Street do what he did for the Rockies last year? Or are we going to see a Brad Lidge-esque trend? (e.g. solid one year, terrible the next).

Last year was a very surprising season for Street that might be hard to duplicate. Additionally, there isn't too much depth in the Rockies bullpen either (Franklin Morales is slated to be the temporary closer). If there is one thing that is required for a successful season, a solid bullpen is it, and unfortunately for Rockies fans, you can't necessarily say that of Colorado at this point.

Remember '51 Projection: 86-76 (first in the NL West)

The Rockies have question marks galore with their bullpen, and a few question marks with their starting pitching (how healthy is Francis? Can de la Rosa duplicate his 2009 numbers, but improve his walk stats?). Nonetheless, from top-to-bottom, the Rockies are pretty solid, and I consider them to be the favorite to win the NL West. Offensively, they look dynamite. Tulowitzki is the real deal, and Hawpe could prove to be a stud over his career as well. The players with the biggest upside though are Fowler and Gonzalez, who could experience real breakout season now that they will be expected to be playing full time in Colorado.


Los Angeles Dodgers
2009 results: (95-67, 1st in the NL West; NLCS runner-ups)
2010 projections: (83-79, PECOTA; second in the NL West)

The Dodgers in 2009

The Dodgers got off to a hot start in 2009 and never looked back. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier broke into superstar status in Los Angeles, and Jonathan Broxton delivered in his first full-season as Dodgers closer. While Manny Ramirez didn't live up to expectations after coming back from a 50-game suspension to start off the season, free agent pickup Orlando Hudson picked up the slack en route to an All-Star appearance and his fourth Gold Glove at the end of the season.

While the Dodgers didn't have a strong ace for most of the year, they got a pleasant surprise in Clayton Kershaw, who had the highest VORP of any Dodgers pitcher in 2009 (Randy Wolf was second). While the Dodgers lost Wolf, Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, who had a solid first-half last year, return as well as Vicente Padilla, their Opening Day starter this year, who performed admirably (4-0, 1.22 WHIP, 3.20 ERA) after being acquired from Texas last season.


Why the Dodgers Can Be Good in 2010

They have Kemp back. They have Ethier back. They have Manny back. The solid trio of slugging outfielders return and the National League West should take notice. Yes, the Dodgers didn't make many upgrades this off-season, but when you have those three as your three-four-five hitters, you don't really need to hit free agency that hard.

Also, the bullpen is scary (even if they aren't completely healthy). Broxton is a stud, and George Sherrill, a former closer with the Baltimore Orioles, is a solid left-handed compliment. The Dodgers also have two solid young arms in the rotation in Kershaw and Billingsley, both who had great stretches during the season in 2009. If they can get a hold of their command in 2010, Kershaw and Billingsley could be one of the NL-West's better one-two punches.

Why the Dodgers Could Be Bad in 2010

There is a lot against the Dodgers going into Opening Day. First off, the McCourt divorce is proving to be a huge distraction, and as Frank and Jamie sling mud, lawyers and money at each other, one has to wonder who the heck is running the ballclub for the time being. The Dodgers were already hit-hard this off-season because of Frank and Jamie's messy dealings, will the same be true during the season when they are in need of a pitching upgrade?

Furthermore, age is a concern for many of the players on the Dodgers roster. Manny seems to be in regression, as does Casey Blake, as does Russell Martin, as does Rafael Furcal. Sure, the Dodgers have a great core in Kemp and Etheir, but other than that, their offense seems to be a little shaky at this point. James Loney hasn't really prove to be anything special, lord knows how Blake DeWitt will fare over a full Major League season, and one has to wonder about their outfield depth, which was hit hard by the departure of Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox. I guarantee you, Pierre will be missed once the Dodgers reach mid-season.


Remember '51 Projection: 81-81 (third in the NL West)

The Dodgers look to be in regression as a team, and the McCourt divorce certainly doesn't help their situation either. Maybe Manny has one more good season left in him. Maybe Loney will reach his potential this year like Kemp last season. Maybe Billingsley will get his control problems panned out. Maybe Kershaw will develop a third pitch.

I'm sorry...I know I'm biased as a Giants fan, but I just don't see a whole lot of optimism with this 2010 Dodgers squad.


San Francisco Giants
2009 results 88-74 (third in the NL West)
2010 projections: 82-80 (PECOTA; tied for third in the NL West)

The Giants in 2009

The Giants were expected to continue their rebuilding process in the post-Barry Bonds era in 2009. Well...the rebuilding process finished sooner than expected, as the Giants raced off to a hot start and stayed in the NL Wild Card race the entire year. While the Giants didn't get a lot of help offensively (they finished in or near the bottom of the NL in most major categories such as OPS, OBP and runs scored), the pitching made up for their offensive deficiencies. Tim Lincecum won his second Cy Young, Matt Cain made the NL All-Star team, Brian Wilson improved from 2008, Barry Zito finally showed he was worth a semblance of the contracts he was given in 2007, and Jonathan Sanchez showed some promise by throwing the first Giants no-hitter since John Montefusco.

Granted, the offense was not a complete bust. Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval proved to be the most exciting Giants third baseman since Matt Williams as he slugged 25 home runs, hit .330, and sported a VORP of 64.2 (almost 40 points higher than the next-best Giants hitter, Juan Uribe, who had a VORP of 25.7). The Giants had a lot of problems getting consistent offensive production from their lineup. Thankfully, Sandoval wasn't one of the problems.


Why the Giants Can Be Good in 2010

It's not just the Sandoval and Co. show anymore. Though one can question how good the moves were financially, Giants fans can't accuse general manager Brian Sabean of not putting out any effort to improve the Giants offense this off-season. Sabean signed Mark Derosa from the St. Louis Cardinals and Aubrey Huff from the Detroit Tigers, and also managed to re-sign Uribe (as insurance should Edgar Renteria flounder a second-straight year), Freddy Sanchez and Bengie Molina. There are some questions concerning the direction the Giants are taking as an organization (are they going young or are they still trying the old "plug and chug" model of building a ballclub?) but any Giants fan can admit that the Giants' Opening Day lineup looks a whole lot more promising in 2010 than in 2009.

As for the pitching? They return their top-four starters from last season, they return their top-three bullpen arms (Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo), they added a fifth starter who has had a marvelous Spring (Todd Wellemeyer), and they have a Top-10 prospect (Madison Bumgarner) waiting in the wings should that "Spring Star" prove to be a dud during the regular season.

Yes, it's safe to say, things are good on the pitching end for the Giants.


Why the Giants Could Be Bad in 2010

They did their "best" to address their power need this off-season by signing 20-homer guys Huff and Derosa. However, there still are major concerns about this Giants lineup.

They have Aaron Rowand penciled in to bat leadoff.

They have only one guy returning with an OBP over .350 (Sandoval) and the guy with the second-highest OBP (Fred Lewis) is on the verge of being released.

F. Sanchez will begin the season on the DL.

Thus, it's tough to say that the Giants are in a "much" better situation in 2010 than in 2009. They have an older roster, a lot of their players (Molina, Derosa, Huff, Sanchez, Rowand) have already reached their peaks as players, and a lot of the promising young guys (Buster Posey for example) seem to be blocked unless major injury or major moves should happen during the year.

In many ways, Sabean had a chance to really improve the Giants roster this season and set them up well for the future. Instead, it looks like he just speckled problems (need for offense) with plaster (Derosa, Molina and Huff signings) that will wear off sooner than expected.

Remember '51 Projection: 83-79 (second in the NL West)

I know I have been a negative Nancy about the Giants for the most part this off-season. However, at the core, I think this Giants team is a good enough team, and the NL West is vulnerable enough for the Giants to make a run. The Dodgers aren't the same Dodgers in 2009 and won't be the 2009 Dodgers with this McCourt Divorce hanging over them. The Diamondbacks, in my mind, could be a dark horse should Webb be healthy, but if he isn't, I seriously doubt they'll be major contenders. San Diego is San Diego.

The opportunity is there. All the stands in the way is the Rockies, and despite their great young talent, they don't have a history of repeated success.

That's what makes me hopeful about the Giants this season, but I'm not going to jump the gun and give them the NL West yet. However, I won't be surprised if the pull it off.


San Diego Padres
2009 results: 75-87 (fourth place in the NL West)
2010 projections: 73-89 (fifth place in the NL West)

The Padres in 2009

Widely maligned as a laughingstock earlier in the season, the Padres actually turned it around at the end of the year and turned out to be a pretty decent ballclub, despite their poor start. Adrian Gonzalez proved to be a stud once again, and the Padres got relative breakout years from position players like Everth Cabrera (14.8 VORP, fourth-highest on the team), Chase Headley (15.1 VORP, third-highest on the team), Will Venable (12 home runs, 38 RBI, 10.3 VORP), and Kyle Blanks (10 home runs in 172 plate appearances, 10.0 VORP). Also, Giants castoff Kevin Correia also proved to be a breakout of sorts as he posted the highest VORP out of any pitcher on the team (24.9) and Heath Bell proved to be a viable closer as the he made the NL All-Star team and saved 42 games.

Why the Padres Can Be Good in 2010

Kevin Towers and his questionable general manager ways (picking Matt Bush No.1 overall  over Justin Verlander, Billy Butler and Stephen Drew, giving Brian Giles a "no-trade" clause in his contract, etc.) are gone and the Padres have a good young core in place to compete. Venable and Blanks weren't spectacular in 2009, but they certainly have the potential to breakout in 2010. Headly proved to be a very solid player down the stretch, and Cabrera might be one of the games most underrated shortstops.

Add that with a solid closer (Bell_, one of the best hitters in the game (Gonzalez) and manager with a good reputation (Bud Black, who actually garnered some Manager of the Year votes), and the Padres have the chance to be successful in 2010 in a Tampa Bay Rays or Florida Marlins mold.

Why the Padres Might Be Bad in 2010

They have a good young core offensively, but there are serious issues in their pitching department. Jon Garland is their No. 1 starter. Jon "Freaking" Garland! That is not good sign for your ballclub.

To make matters worse, it only seems to be a matter of time before Gonzalez is traded. For the Padres to have playoff hopes, they need Gonzalez, and at this point, having him for more than two months seems to be a luxury.

The Padres are young and talented, but they seem too young at this point to compete, even in the "free-for-all" NL West.


Remember '51 Projection: 72-90 (fifth in the NL West)

The Padres could be good in 2011 or 2012. However, they just don't seem to have enough pitching and their young talent seems to be a bit too unproven at this point in order to be a contender. I like what the Padres are doing as an organization, but they just don't have the horses to compete for a playoff spot. Most likely, it's going to be a long, tough year for Padres fans, and it will only get worse when Adrian Gonzalez leaves.

"Giants" Enemy Lines: A Look at the NL West's One-Two Starting Pitchers

This is a series of posts leading up to the season preview which will be posted sometime next week. This post will look at the number one and number two starters for each team in the NL West (other than the Giants, since these posts will concentrate more on what the Giants will be facing in 2010 in various categories).

One thing to note about these posts is that I'm not looking specifically at the number one or number two pitchers in the rotation according to MLB.com depth charts. Rather, what I am looking at (and more concerned about as a Giants fan) are the two best pitchers on each NL West squad. For example, if you used the Giants as an example, the starting rotation may look like this: Tim Lincecum (no.1), Barry Zito (no.2), Matt Cain (no.3), Jonathan Sanchez (no.4), and Todd Wellemeyer/Kevin Pucetas (no.5).

(Note: I didn't put Madison Bumgarner in the fifth spot because he got optioned today. However, I do feel Bumgarner will be the fifth starter at some point this year, since I don't trust that Wellemeyer or Pucetas will be as good in the regular season as they have been in Spring Training.)

Now, would everyone consider Barry Zito the second-best pitcher on the Giants roster? Of course not. Thus, you have to use the same reasoning with the no.1 and no.2 starters on the other NL West squads. Is Chris Young a possible Opening Day starter? Could be. Is he the team's best pitcher? I would argue against that (he's probably the third, maybe even fourth best pitcher on the Padres at this moment in my opinion).

So, let's take a look around the NL West and the team's top of the rotation pitchers.

Arizona Diamondbacks:
Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson

Why Giants Fans Should Fear Haren
Haren's stats against the Giants in 2009: three games, 0-2 W-L, 3.79 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 9.50 K/BB.

Sure, Haren went 0-2 (with one no-decision) against the Giants in 2009. However, if it were not for lackluster offense on the Diamondbacks' end (or great pitching by the Giants starters...you can choose which one) then Haren could have easily went 3-0 against San Francisco last season.

While he finished a distant fourth for the NL Cy Young behind Cardinals Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, and repeat winner Tim Lincecum (collective yeah! by Giants nation), Haren for the most part was in the running in the race until the last couple of months. Haren posted ERA numbers of 4.95 and 4.79 in August and September/October (he didn't post an ERA higher than 3.50 prior to August), along with WHIP numbers of 1.23 and 1.31 (he didn't have a WHIP higher than 1.06 prior to August).

Now, those numbers aren't terrible. They didn't get him the Cy Young, but they shouldn't deter Giants fans from believing Haren is anything less than a Big-Time Major League ace.

Haren has a lot to offer as a pitcher. In his tenure in Arizona, Haren has shown unbelievable control and command, as evidenced by his K/BB ratios. In 2008 with the Diamondbacks, he posted a K/BB ratio of 5.15. In 2009, he increased that number to 5.87. (To put it in perspective, the league average K/BB ratio for pitchers is around two).

How does Haren gets guys out? He has a solid, four-pitch repertoire, with all of his pitches having positive value in 2009 according to Fangraphs. Last season, Haren's money pitch was his cutter, as the pitch was worth 17.8 runs above average (e.g. he saved the Diamondbacks 17.8 runs last year with this pitch, according to Fangraphs). His fastball and split also proved to be effective as well, evidenced by his 9.3 and 9.0 runs above average ratios on these pitches.

The crazy thing about Haren is that he doesn't have incredible stuff. His fastball only averaged 90.6 MPH and it only topped out at 95 MPH on a couple of occasions last season. That being said, he mixes up his pitches well (probably due to the fact that he is very effective with all four of them). He only threw his fastball 45.7 percent of the time (the league average is 53.0 percent) and threw his cutter 23.3 percent of the time, his curve ball 18 percent of the time and his split finger 13 percent of the time. That kind of confidence in his secondary pitches show that Haren is not a one-trick pony, and is a tough guy to hit against, mainly because he can beat you in a variety of ways.

Haren may not have one the Cy Young last season. However, if he continues to stay in form like he did in 2008 and 2009, and his hitting comes around, it would not be surprising to see Haren snatch the award away from Lincecum in 2010.

Why Giants Fans Should Fear Jackson
Numbers in Detroit in 2009: 13-9 W-L, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.77 K/9, 2.30 K/BB.

Why did I list Jackson over Brandon Webb? Mainly because Webb probably won't return until late-April, and I am curious to see if Webb will be his old self when he returns to pitching after missing most of 2009 due to injury. So, I'm going with Jackson, who is expected to be ready to go once the 2010 season starts for the Diamondbacks.

However, that should not make Giants fans overlook Jackson.

Jackson, an All-Star in 2009 with the Tigers, has tremendous potential and finally delivered after years of hype when he was in the Dodgers' organization. Jackson has tremendous stuff and velocity (he averaged 94.5 MPH on his fastball), and last season he made great strides by cutting down his walk rate (to 2.94, the lowest walk rate of his career). Add that with increases in his strikeout rate and K/BB ratio (6.77 and 2.30 respectively) from 2008, and Jackson proved that he has all the makings of a potential top-of-the-rotation guy.

Is Jackson a bonafide ace at this moment? Unfortunately, now. Despite solid numbers in Detroit, his FIP (4.28) was less than flattering, and he benefited from a generously low BABIP (.281, the lowest number in that category since his rookie year in 2003 where he only pitched four games). It is unlikely that he'll post numbers that low again, even if he is making a transition from the American to the National League.

That being said, the Giants and Giants fans should not sleep on Jackson, even if Webb comes back to Arizona's rotation healthy. He could be to the Diamondbacks rotation what Matt Cain is to the Giants' (thus, explaining why I wrote that piece comparing Jackson and Cain a while ago).

Scare factor: 8.5 (potentially 9 if Webb's healthy) out of 10. (Jackson could be boom or bust, but Haren is the real deal and provides plenty of scare and worry to Giants fans. Also, if Webb comes back healthy and in old-form, then this rotation just got a whole lot scarier.)

Colorado Rockies
Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa


Why Giants Fans Should Fear Jimenez
Jimenez's stats against the Giants in 2009: 5 games, 2-3 W-L, 3.98 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.00 K/BB.

Jimenez is the ace for the Rockies staff. Maybe ten years ago that was Mike Hampton and that didn't mean much considering it was home run derby every game played at Coors Field back then. Now though, being the ace of the Rockies is not a dubious honor. In fact, it actually means something nowadays considering the Rockies are a serious contender in the National League and the favorite to win the NL West in my book. (Or are they? Sorry don't want to spoil my NL West season preview.)

Jimenez is no Hampton. Jimenez is no Jamey Wright. Jimenez is the real deal with serious stuff, and last year he showed some serious success. (I like to say serious, don't I?)

In 2009, Jimenez went 15-12, not a great record, but his other numbers are much more impressive. His ERA was 3.47 and his FIP (fielding independent pitching on an ERA scale) was 3.36. Furthermore, he posted a strikeout rate of 8.17 (the highest of his Major League career) and a K/BB ratio of 2.33. His WHIP was also the league average (which is 1.39) at 1.23 and his BABIP wasn't just a little over 10 points under the league average at .290 (so he wasn't extraordinarily lucky by any measure in comparison to Jackson from Arizona).

What makes Jimenez so dangerous? His ability to throw the high heat.

The 26-year-old right hander throws gas, plain and simple, no questions asked. His fastball averaged 96.1 MPH last year and it actually touched the 100 MPH range according to Pitch F/X velocity charts on Fangraphs.

Yet the fastball isn't the only pitch in the Rockies ace's repertoire. Last season, Jimenez showed a solid ability to mix up his pitches as evidenced by him throwing his slider 17.8 percent of the time and his change 11.5 percent of the time. The secondary pitches also packed punch. His slider had a value of 15 runs above average and his changeup had a value of 9.6 runs above average (his fastball had a value of 11.4 runs above average in comparison).

Jimenez may not be a big name in comparison Haren from Arizona, but make no mistakes about it. Jimenez could be a serious dark horse to challenge for the Cy Young should he continue to improve like he did in 2009.

Why Giants Fans Should Fear Jorge De La Rosa
De La Rosa's stats against the Giants in 2009: 3 stars, 3-0 W-L, 3.38 ERA, 0.984 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 7.00 K/BB.

Here is the equation that could summarize the Giants against De La Rosa last year:

De La Rosa + Giants offense = Rockies win.

Ergo, visa vi, concordingly...De La Rosa owned the Giants hitters in 2009.

I watched every start De La Rosa had against San Francisco last year, and there was no doubt in my mind how good the guy was. Basically, he is Jonathan Sanchez, only if Sanchez had better control and more velocity on the fastball (and had a better mental makeup than Sanchez...and had more wins...and had more run support...I could go on forever really). With a fastball that averages 93.3 MPH, De La Rosa has some solid gas behind his pitches. Additionally, he can mix it up well. In 2009, he threw his slider 15.3 percent of the time and changeup 17.0 percent of the time. His slider and chanegup proved to be his most effective pitches, as he had a value of 3.4 runs above average and 8.1 runs above average on them, respectively.

The most intriguing aspect of De La Rosa's pitching though is his ability to make bats miss. Last year, hitters only made contact against De La Rosa 74.8 percent of the time. To put things in perspective, the league average contact rate is 80.5 percent and Jimenez, the ace of the Rockies, had a contact rate of 77.3 percent.

What does that show? De La Rosa has the makings of a real strikeout artist (which already somewhat rings true as evidenced by his 9.39 strikeout rate). If De La Rosa can lower his walk (4.04 BB/9) and WHIP numbers (1.38) from 2009, don't be surprised to see De La Rosa on the NL All-Star roster next July.

Scare factor: 9 out of 10 (They play in Coors Field unfortunately, but considering they are strikeout pitchers, they have the ability to succeed where pitchers like Hampton, Shawn Estes and Darryl Kile failed. If they continue to improve, and can get some improvement from their defense behind them, Jimenez and De La Rosa could be the answer to the Giants' Lincecum-Cain one-two punch.)

Los Angeles Dodgers
Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw

Why Giants Fans Should Fear Billingsley
Billingsley's stats against the Giants in 2009: 5 games (4 starts) , 1-2 W-L, 3.67 ERA, 1.556 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.33 K/BB.


Billingsley is a very interesting pitcher. There is no doubt the guy has the ability to strike hitters out. Last year he posted a 8.21 strikeout rate, and that was his lowest K/9 rate since his rookie season in 2006 (where it was 5.90). Additionally, Billingsley can also make hitters miss (75.9 contact rate in 2009) and his FIP (3.82 in 2009) actually suggests that he may not have been as bad a pitcher as he looked to be back in July and September/October where he was posting ERA numbers of 7.52 and 5.16, respectively and and WHIP numbers of 1.52 and 1.48, respectively.

So what's Billingsley's problem? Well, he has trouble finding the strike zone.


Last year, his walk rate was high at 3.94 and he only posted a K/BB ratio of 2.03. He was especially bad against the Giants: despite having a K/9 rate of 10, he only posted a 3.33 K/BB ratio.

Billingsley's control is very puzzling, mainly because he doesn't throw incredibly hard (his fastball average 91.8 MPH last year) and he mixes up his pitches well. He throws his cutter 23.2 percent of the time and his curve 23.1 percent of the time, thus showing that he has confidence in a few pitches.


However, in tight situations, Billingsley struggled last year. In high leverage situations, he posted a K/BB ratio of 0.93 and a FIP of 5.26. Those numbers look very bad, especially when you compare them to battery mate Kershaw, who posted a K/BB ratio of 2.33 and a FIP of 3.74 in high leverage situations.

There is no doubt Billingsley has the tools to be a great pitcher. He has three pitches he can throw with consistency, he induces a good amount of groundballs (1.25 GB/FB rate last year, 1.58 in 2008), and he can make hitters miss, as evidenced by his strikeout rates and contact rates.

That being said, unless Billingsley performs better in tougher situations, and solves his walk issues, Billingsley will never be the ace he was hyped up to be when he was drafted by Dodgers in the first round in 2003. 

Why Giants Fans Should Fear Kershaw
Kershaw's stats against the Giants in 2009: 1 start, 7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K, No-Decision.

You can thank the Dodgers bullpen for blowing Kershaw's wonderful performance against the Giants. Yet, bad start and all, you can say one thing about Kershaw:

This...kid...can...pitch.


Seriously, he just turned 22, and he may be the Dodgers best pitcher on staff come Opening Day. Now, I know you can be pessimistic (and I like to be with the Dodgers) and say the Dodgers starting rotation is pretty mediocre, but I'll take the high road and say that Kershaw is a gem in the rough that get overshadowed by the big name starters in the NL West such as Lincecum, Haren, Cain and even Jimenez and De La Rosa.

However, you can't ignore Kershaw, despite his mediocre record (8-8) in 2009.


For starters, Kershaw has an extraordinary ability to strike guys out. In 2009, he posted a strikeout rate of 9.74 and hitters only made contact against Kershaw 76.7 percent of the time. What the secret to his success? He has got some incredibly stuff behind his pitches, especially his fastball. His fastball averaged 93.9 MPH last year, but it was common to see his fastball hover around the 95-6 MPH range. Furthermore, he had tremendous value behind his fastball as well (illustrated by the pitch having a value of 30.0 runs above average).

Granted, people expecting Kershaw to be the Dodgers answer to Lincecum have to keep things in perspective. For starters, he's still young, and despite solid ERA numbers last year (2.79) as well as FIP numbers (3.08), his K/BB numbers leave a little to be desired (2.03, hurt by a 4.79 walk rate in 2009). In addition, Kershaw is a pretty two-dimensional pitcher. He threw his fastball 71.7 percent of the time and the only pitch he threw more than 10 percent of the time was his curve ball (17.1 percent of the time). 

If Kershaw wants to be an ace in this league, he's going to have to develop a third pitch, or else Major League hitters will catch up on him pretty quickly.


Scare factor: 7 out of 10 (Billingsley and Kershaw are two young, scary, promising pitchers, but they don't impress in comparison to what Colorado and Arizona have to offer. If Kershaw can develop an effective third pitch, and if Billingsley can get his walk issues under control, this duo could surprise, especially considering the offensive lineup they are pitching with.)

San Diego Padres
Kevin Correia and Jon Garland

Why Giants Fans Should Fear Correia
Correia's stats against the Giants in 2009: 4 games, 1-1 W-L, 3.75 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 5.00 K/BB.

The former Giant made his old team pay in 2009. In four games, Correia went 1-1 and posted a solid 3.75 ERA and 1.292 WHIP.

However, it was just the Giants Correia succeeded against. He also managed to have a solid year overall, as shown by his 3.91 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, and 2.22 K/BB ratio (helped by a 6.45 strikeout rate).


Now, Correia doesn't have intimidating stuff. His fastball only average 91.1 MPH and it topped out over 95 MPH just once in 2009 according to his velocity graphs. Yet Correia succeeded with Padres in 2009 because a.) he didn't walk too many guys (his walk rate was 2.91) and b.) he improved in terms of inducing groundballs.


In regard to the former, the walk numbers were a surprise. The lowest walk rate numbers Correia posted prior to 2009 was in 2006 with the Giants at 2.54. That being said, those walk numbers came as a reliever and he pitched almost 129 more innings in 2009 than in 2006, so his 2009 walk rate numbers are a lot more impressive than his 2006 ones.


As for the latter point, you could attribute Correia's success in inducing more groundballs and allowing less line drives (his groundball rate increased from 38.2 percent in 2008 to 44.8 in 2009, and his line drive rate fell from 24.9 percent in 2008 to 19.2 percent in 2009) to his change in pitch variety. In his first year as a starting pitcher at the Major League level, Correia primarily threw three pitches: a fastball (which he threw 60 percent of the time), slider (which he threw 27.2 percent of the time), and changeup (which he threw 9.2 percent of the time).


In his second year as a starting pitcher with the Padres, Correia threw his fastball less (only 51.7 percent of the time) and his secondary pitches more. He threw his slider 30.2 percent of the time, his curve ball and 10.5 percent of the time, and his changeup 5.8 percent of the time. Thus, Correia found success by having a solid pitch variety something he didn't do as a reliever and spot starter back in San Francisco.


Can Correia repeat his 2009 success in 2010? It's tough to tell because his stuff isn't awesome. However, if he can continue to improve his GB/FB rates, it isn't out of the question to think that Correia could be an underrated ace in the NL West.


Why Giants Fans Should Fear Jon Garland
Garland's stats against the Giants in 2009: 2 games, 1-0 W-L, 2.35 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 2.9 K/9, 2.50 K/BB.

Garland isn't an intimidating pitcher by any means. He is up there in age (he's 30), and he isn't the kind of pitcher known for striking guys out (his strikeout rate has topped five three times: 5.07 in 2003, 5.23 in 2002, and 5.43 in 2000, all with the White Sox). Yet Garland finds moderate success as a Major League pitcher because he doesn't walk guys. Since 2005, his walk rate hasn't been over 2.70.


Despite solid walk rates, it really hasn't transitioned to success in his other statistical categories. His FIP wasn't impressive (4.48) and neither was his WHIP (1.40). Garland has a tendency to induce groundballs as a pitcher, but even then, it's hit or miss at-times. While he induced good groundball numbers in 2008 and 2009 (1.79 and 1.31, respectively), they were less than stellar in 2006 and 2007 (1.12 and 1.04, respectively).


Garland can mix it up with his pitches, which is necessary considering his mediocre velocity (he averaged 89.7 MPH on his fastball last year). However, while he has up to six different pitches, he only throws two of them with any confidence (only his cutter and change were thrown over 10 percent of the time).


There is not a lot to like about Garland. That being said, he is a serviceable and dependable pitcher that will eat innings (he has thrown 190-plus innings since 2002) and put up decent, though not spectacular numbers. Considering a lot of pitchers on the Padres have suffered from inconsistency (Chris Young and Clayton Richard come to mind), a guy like Garland isn't bad to have in this rotation.


Scare factor: 4.5 out of 10 (Correia is a good pitcher on this Padres team, but he'd be a third or fourth starter on any other NL West squad. Garland is good, but he won't strike fear into anybody. Richard has some potential, but it hasn't been proven consistently. For now, this Padres rotation is pretty mediocre.)