Season Preview: Augusta Green Jackets

With Opening Day happening across the Minor League yesterday, I figured it would be good to take a look at what Giants fans could expect from the teams in the Giants organization. I'm going to start with the lower levels first and move my way up. Since the Arizona Rookie League, the Northwest League and Dominican Summer League don't start until later in the season, I'm going to start with the Giants' Sally team, the Augusta Green Jackets.


2011 Recap:

It was a tale of two seasons for the Green Jackets, as they got off to a slow start in 2011. They finished the first half 31-39, good for fifth place in the Southern Division. However, a couple of roster moves and some better play sparked them in the second half, as they finished with the best record in the Southern Division after the break at 39-29. While they still finished behind the Savannah Sand Gants (the Mets organization) in the overall standings, the 70-68 record was still a promising end for a team that had its share of struggles in the beginning of the year.

The Green Jackets relied on their pitching as they finished sixth best in the league in runs allowed per game at 4.43 and fourth in ERA at 3.70. Shawn Sanford, Stan Rogers and Mike Kickham provided good production at the top of the rotation, as they each threw over 100 innings and posted ERA numbers of 2.55, 2.91, and 4.11, respectively. Seth Rosin proved to be an excellent spot starter for the Green Jackets, as he struck out 93 batters in 89 innings pitched while posting an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.25. The bullpen also got a bounce back season from Edward Concepcion, who struck out 62 batters in 52.1 IP. While Concepcion still sports control issues (his K/BB ratio was 1.72), the performance was a nice sign for a prospect whose stock took a serious drop in 2010.

Offensively, Augusta struggled to score runs, as they finished fifth-worst in the Sally in runs scored per game at 4.43 and fourth-worst in OPS at .693. Despite the lackluster team showing, the Green Jackets did have some position players who made solid contributions during the 2011 season.

Though overshadowed by Chris Dominguez since college (they both were third basemen from the University of Louisville), Adam Duvall had a breakout year, posting a .285/.385/.527 slash with a team leading .917 OPS and 22 home runs. Outfielder Ryan Lollis also had a solid 80-game stint before he made the move to San Jose, as he posted a slash of .314/.393/.422 with an OPS of .816. While he struggled at the end of the year to post a pedestrian .650 OPS, Carlos Willoughby was a catalyst for the most part at the top of the order, as he showed a patient approach at the plate (.343 OBP, 0.73 BB/K ratio) and some speed on the basepaths (a team-high 33 stolen bases). Though he is repeating the year in Augusta, Willoughby is somebody to keep an eye on, especially to start the year.




Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?

The outfield will be intriguing as Chuckie Jones, Brett Krill and Shawn Payne will look to be the regular starting outfield during the 2012 season. Jones is a super-athlete with plus power, arm strength and speed tools (a lot of scouts have made Matt Kemp comparisons because of his background), but he has struggled to make contact over the course of his Minor League career (61 percent contact rate in Salem Keizer a year ago). Krill was a low-round pick in the Giants' 2010 Draft (25th round), but he is coming off a sensational campaign with the Volcanoes where he put up a slash of .304/.350/.488 along with six home runs and four stolen bases in 226 plate appearances. Payne is a toolsy-outfielder who has "Fred Lewis" potential, as he sports a patient approach at the plate, and good speed and instincts on the basepaths (though he doesn't sport a lot of raw power, as he hit no home runs a year ago).  Payne put up a slash of .306/.431/.394 and stole 21 bases on 27 attempts in 195 plate appearances in the NWL last year.

In addition to Willoughby, shortstop Kelby Tomlinson will be an infielder to watch out for this year in Augusta. Baseball America rated Tomlinson with the best speed tool set and the best athleticism out of any Giants draft pick in the 2011 draft (the Giants selected him in the 12th round). Tomlinson however is not just all tools, as he roped pitching in the Arizona Rookie League last year. He posted a slash of .357/.417/.543 in 156 plate appearances. While he doesn't sport "home run power", Tomlinson has showed a strong ability to stretch out hits, as he hit 10 doubles, 5 triples and two home runs in the AZL. He does have to improve his concentration in the field if he wants to continue to stick at shortstop (10 errors, .924 fielding percentage last year), but scouts note that he has the tools and potential to be an above-average defensive shortstop as he moves up the system.



Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?

The strength of the Green Jackets' roster is in the rotation, as there will be many arms to watch out for in Augusta in 2012. The roster is filled with projectable, high-ceiling arms who not only could be impact prospects in the Giants system, but could help make this Green Jackets team competitive in the Sally Southern conference.

In terms of starting pitching, Clayton Blackburn, Kyle Crick and Adalberto Mejia will anchor the top of the rotation. Blackburn started on Opening Day for the Jackets and performed well as he struck out six and walked zero while allowing four hits in 4.2 innings pitched. Blackburn is a big (six-foot, three-inches, 220 pounds) powerful arm that showed impeccable command in the Arizona Rookie League as an 18 year old. Crick also shares a similar profile to Blackburn, as he is a powerful prep arm out of Texas who was the Giants' supplemental round pick in the 2011 draft. Crick has more control and command issues than Blackburn at this point in his career (he walked eight and allowed nine hits in seven innings pitched in the Arizona Rookie League last year), but he is only 19 years old, was rated more highly by scouts than Blackburn out of high school, and still has a lot of time for development on the mound.

Mejia is a big surprise to make the Green Jackets roster, as many figured Joan Gregorio would be starting the year in Augusta instead of Mejia. However, though this is Mejia's first exposure Stateside, he was absolutely dominant in the Dominican Summer League in 2011. He struck out 71 and walked only eight batters in 76 innings pitched, and he finished the year with the DSL Giants with a 5-2 record and 1.42 ERA. It'll be interesting to see how Mejia fares in the Sally as a raw 18-year-old (he'll turn 19 in June) out of the Dominican, but he has the size (six-foot, three-inches and 195 pounds) and skills to project as a good starting pitching prospect not only this year, but for years to come.

Some sleepers in the Giants' pitching rotation are Demondre Arnold, Bryce Bandilla and Chris Marlowe, all picks in the Giants' 2011 draft. Arnold is a raw right hander out of junior college, but scouts have noted his impressive stuff and his strong performance last year in the Arizona Rookie League bullpen. In 26.2 IP, Arnold struck out 32 batters, allowed 16 hits and 8 walks as a nineteen year old. While he is expected to be in the Green Jackets bullpen, his excellent command and strikeout ability should make him a solid late innings option for the Green Jackets in 2012.

Bandilla and Marlowe are college prospects who come out of Arizona and Oklahoma State, respectively. While control has been an issue for them in their college careers, they have excellent stuff and strikeout potential, and could be fast risers in the Giants system, especially if they stay in the pen. Marlowe could compete for the setup or closer's position with Arnold, while Bandilla could be the first left-handed pitcher out of the pen in the late innings. While they didn't get much playing time after signing (Bandilla didn't play while Marlowe threw only three innings in the AZL; he did strike out five in three innings of work though), they do offer some upside and will be interesting arms to watch. If they do well, don't be surprised to see a second half promotion for both of these guys in the second half of the year.



What Should We Expect from the Green Jackets in 2012?

The Green Jackets have a solid pitching staff that could carry them, especially in the beginning of the year. While the offense has some interesting players with strong tools (Jones, especially), I would be surprised to see the Green Jackets surpass their offensive production from a year ago, especially with their main run producer, Duvall, now playing in San Jose. However, if Willoughby can have a year that was more similar to his first half and not his second half, than the Green Jackets might be able to muster enough offense, especially with a pitching staff that sports so much potential. I don't know if Augusta will be able to compete for a Sally title, but they certainly have the potential to be a dark horse, especially if guys like Jones and Tomlinson can back up their prospect hype with solid seasons at the plate in the Sally.

Tumbler Profile: Carlos Willoughby Takes Step Back in 2011

Second Baseman Carlos Willoughby was on my Top-32 last year (before it dramatically stopped at 17 with Heath Hembree) at No. 28, and though he was kind of a fringe guy on the list last year, I still had some high hopes for him. I basically pictured him as a more patient, Eugenio Velez, and considering Velez's main flaw was his lack of plate patience, I thought Willoughby might have some value and upside as a prospect. However, the Sally was not kind to Willoughby, and consequently, he tumbles out of my Top-30 for this year.

The Colombian-born product made a name for himself in his third year in the Dominican Summer League as he posted a slash line of .327/.466/.904 in 329 plate appearances in the DSL. While he was old for the league (the average age of hitters there was 18.4) and it was his third campaign in the DSL, I still liked the fact that he not only could hit, but he could take a walk as well (his BB/K ratio was a ridiculous 1.67). Furthermore, Willoughby also showed exceptional skills on the basepaths as he stole 46 bases out of 58 attempts, a 79 percent success rate. With an excellent eye, good contact skills and some aptitude on the basepaths, Willoughby had all the tools in my mind to be a sleeper prospect of sorts (though as noted, his older age was a bit of a concern).

At 21 years old, Willoughby produced a solid campaign in the Arizona Rookie League in 2010, as he posted a respectable slash of .295/.432/.804 in 205 plate appearances. His BB/K ratio wasn't as impressive as his DSL numbers, but at 0.47, it wasn't bad considering it was his first exposure to American professional pitching. His base stealing ability was his real strength in Arizona, as he stole 23 bases out of 27 attempts, an 85 percent success rate. Yes, Willoughby did not sport much power, as his ISO was only .136 and he only had16 extra base hits all year. Nonetheless, many felt his speed tool set would suit him well as he continued to climb up the system and be more exposed to American pitching.

He made the jump to Augusta last season and while some things improved in a sense, a lot did not. His BB/K ratio did rise to 0.73, but his overall slash line dipped to .240/.341/.650 in 567 plate appearances. Additionally, though the Sally is tough on hitters, he showed absolutely no power at all as evidenced by his .068 ISO. I found the ISO numbers especially surprising because one would think a guy with his speed set would be able to stretch some single into doubles (unfortunately that wasn't the case in 2011).

Hence, Willoughby pretty much proved to be nothing but a singles hitter (25 extra base hits) who could draw a walk and steal a base decently well (33 stolen bases on 43 attempts). His lackluster numbers, thin profile and older age (he was 22 in the Sally) caused him to fall off the radar in many Giants fans and analysts' minds and you'd be lucky to see Willoughby crack any Top-50 lists, let alone a Top-20 one.

Defensively, Willoughby seems to be good as evidenced by his 5.74 RF/G and .982 fielding percentage, but reports don't rate him as anything spectacular (probably Velez-esque to guess). Furthermore, with guys like Charlie Culberson and Nick Noonan and now most likely Joe Panik (who probably will move to second base based on reports about his defense) ahead of him, it's easy to see why Willoughby has been lost in the shuffle before and most likely will stay lost in the shuffle in 2012.

In my opinion, Willoughby has some potential to be a decent role player in the future. His plate patience is solid, and he has some competency on the basepaths (though to be honest, I'll be interested to see if his stolen base numbers will sustain as he moves up the system). Granted, his upside may be that of a utility player, and at his age, one has to wonder how old he would be when (or even IF) he gets a shot at the Majors. Thus, the big question would be, as an older age prospect making his Big League debut, will his speed and the ability on the basepaths still be there? Or will they deteriorate with age like most guys?

I like Willoughby for a variety of reasons. I was higher on Velez as a player than most Giant fans (I saw him hit a home run in person at AT&T and I was immediately endeared) and the comparisons to him are pretty uncanny; he's from Colombia (I visited Colombia for a month) and I like his plate patience, which you can't devalue by any means. But, if he wants to regain any steam as a prospect, he has to start hitting better for average (I'm not even going to talk about power because it's obvious that he's just not a power guy by any means), and right now that is simply a big question mark that could go either way at this point.

The Murky Outlook of Ydwin Villegas

When the Giants signed shortstop Ydwin Villegas, he seemed like one of those "projects" that had some nice upside, but would take some time to develop. He was a small (5-feet, 10-inches, 150 pounds), but nimble shortstop out of Venezuela (he's from the same area as Pablo Sandoval) with a switch-hitting approach and some athletic defensive ability. Furthermore, youth was on his side, as he was 17 years old when he signed and broke into the Dominican Summer League. He wasn't the caliber of international signings like Rafael Rodriguez or Ehire Adrianza, but Villegas at the time of his signing offered some nice potential, even if it would take some time to develop.

In the Dominican Summer League, Villegas didn't hit for average very well (.219), but he did walk (40) more than he struck out (36) in 67 games and 274 plate appearances with the DSL Giants. His lack of power was deflating  (he had only eight hits and a dismal .260 slugging), but the thought was that with his defense and positive plate approach that he had enough time to hit better for average the more he was exposed to professional pitching.

He made the jump to the Arizona Rookie League in 2009, and the average came around for Villegas in Arizona. His batting average jumped to .302 and he did swipe 12 bags on 15 attempts. Granted, the slugging wasn't much better (.352), and the plate approach regressed a little when he transitioned stateside (his BB/K ratio fell to 0.43 after it was 1.11 in the DSL). Nonetheless, it was nice to see Villegas have some real impact in his US debut. Later in the year, he earned a late-season callup to the Northwest League and in a three game stint, he really showed some promise, garnering three hits, two RBI and a walk in nine plate appearances (he struck out twice). It was a small sample size of course, but as an 18-year-old, the combination of his good Arizona League campaign and brief Salem-Keizer stint gave Villegas "under-the-radar" potential as a prospect.

There was a little bit of hope about Villegas' potential around the Giants blogosphere going into 2010. When the Giants Come to Town ranked him the 21st best prospect in the Giants system, which was a little high considering he wasn't on the radar on any other prospect lists (though John Sickels noted him as an honorable mention in his Top 20 Giants Prospects list going into 2010). Here is what Dr. B said about Villegas in his January 2010 writeup:

"Ydwin Villegas is a slick fielding SS who produced a nice BA with some speed, but little power for the Arizona League Giants, essentially a younger version of Ehire Adrianza. Since he didn't turn 19 until the end of the season, he is likely to have considerable upside. I rated him behind Adrianza because they are essentially the same player, but Adrianza is farther up the ladder. The question I have is where will Villegas play in 2010?"

The Giants decided to move him up to Augusta, and unfortunately, the decision didn't prove to be the best as Villegas seemed overwhelmed by the competition in the Sally. He played 79 games with the Green Jackets and in 281 plate appearances he hit .189 with an OPS of only .458. He didn't show much power (.242) or plate patience, as he struck out 55 times and only walked nine times (a 0.16 BB/K ratio). His contact rate wasn't great either at 79 percent, but the .234 BABIP probably didn't help his cause either. Safe to say though, the campaign in the Sally was disappointing, and a classic sign that the Giants management probably rushed Villegas to Single-A ball a little too soon (even Dr. B mentioned that Villegas probably should have started the year in Salem-Keizer).

However, Villegas bounced back in the Giants winter instructional league in the Dominican Republic, as his glove continued to garner spectacular reviews from coaches and scouts (especially when he was moved to second base and teamed up the middle with phenom Adrianza). Also, according to Baseball America in their 2011 Prospect Handbook, "Villegas played much looser...running better and swinging the bat with more authority."

This year, Baseball America ranked Villegas as the Giants' 26th best prospect despite the down season in Augusta. They still noted he was still a project of sorts, but BA liked his upside, his defensive tools and the frame he was bound to grow into as he got older.

The second time in the Sally wasn't as kind as the first as Villegas hit .185 with a .425 OPS in 89 plate appearances. The same problems lingered from 2010: he looked overwhelmed (he struck out 19 times and drew only one walk, which is good for a 0.05 K/BB ratio), and he was making less contact at the plate than in 2010 (his contact rate had fallen to 76 percent). On Saturday, with the Green Jackets struggling under .500, the Giants sent him to extended Spring Training along with other notable players such as Dan Burkhart, Josh Mazzola, Sundredy Windster, Matt Graham, and Ryan Bradley, according to the Augusta Chronicle.

With this latest set-back, one has to wonder what the future holds for Villegas. It's obvious from reports that the guy has a lot of tools and talent, but unfortunately, he just hasn't been able to put it together in Single-A in two stints. He is probably a victim of too much hype, as it seems a lot of experts and analysts cut him some slack early on because of his age and athleticism. That being said, he is 20 years old, and at this point, he's probably due for another stint in Augusta perhaps even next year, which would be his third go-around in the Sally at 21 years old. Yes, breaking into the Sally at 19 is a decent feat. But to be playing in Single A at 21 when he's been playing professional ball since he was 17? Well...that's a bit harder to stomach.

Villegas is an interesting subject mainly because with some recent International Signings the Giants made (the Giants signed Simon Mercedes, a RHP and Adalberto Mejia, a LHP) and the Signing Period starting July 2nd (a couple of months away, but still close enough), it definitely is classic case of why Giants fans and analysts should always be cautious with these kinds of prospects. Yes, international prospects, especially ones from Latin America, come with considerable upside, tools and athleticism at a young age (they are playing professional baseball when most kids in the United States haven't even graduated high school yet). However, there is a significant transition step needed to succeed at the professional level, and some guys, despite their potential, struggle to make the adjustment to professional pitching when they make their way stateside.

Now, is it all doom and gloom for Villegas? I'm not so sure. Reports have him as one of the Top-five defensive infielders in the Giants system (some argue he's just behind Adrianza and Brandon Crawford). So, Villegas may just be a late bloomer who'll just need some more time to figure it out at the plate. That being said, he may not be a Top-50 prospect in the Giants system anymore, and certainly isn't the Top 30 prospect that Baseball America made him out to be going into the 2011 season.

It'll be interesting to keep an eye on Villegas as he works on some things in extended Spring Training in Arizona. However, it is probably a wise thing for Giants fans to temper their expectations on Villegas' potential from this point forward.