I know prospect lists should be final, but I had to make a final tweak to the rankings. With Angel Villalona's visa being delayed, the possibility of him not playing another year is very real (though I do think he'll get here at some point). The main reason for the delay allegedly is that he is applying for a visa meant for athletes and apparently his physical shape didn't check out with those dispersing visas for such athletes. That report scares me and makes me less optimistic that he'll recapture the potential he had when he was playing in the minors as recently as 2009.
So, I added two others at the No. 30 spot, since I felt they were both deserving. I added pitcher Chris Marlowe and outfielder Roger Kieschnick. Marlowe is a relief pitcher out of Oklahoma State whose frame and strikeout ability has gotten Tim Lincecum-comparisons, while Kieschnick is a bit of a tumbler but did post solid power numbers in the Eastern League a year ago.
This should be the last change and I apologize for all the flip-flopping. I just want to get these rankings as accurate as possible and the later rankings are always the toughest.
Showing posts with label Roger Kieschnick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roger Kieschnick. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Will Gary Brown's Offense Survive the Move to the Eastern League?
No question about it, outfielder Gary Brown is the Giants' top prospect in the system and it isn't really close. Brown, the Giants' first round pick in the 2010 draft, had a killer year in the California League, as he posted a batting average of .336, an on-base percentage of .407 and an OPS of .925 in 131 games and 638 plate appearances in San Jose. While the home runs were nice for a guy with leadoff potential (14), his speed (his calling card when he was drafted), was on full display in the Cal League as he had 13 triples and stole 53 bases on 72 attempts.
Without a doubt, offensively, it was a banner year for Brown, but as most Giants fans know, High-A tends to be a banner year for most position prospects in the Giants system due to the hitter-friendly environments of the California League. The big question now will be how his bat will transition to the Eastern League where he will not only face better pitching, but hitting environments that favor the pitchers considerably so.
If you don't believe me, let's take a look at two formerly touted outfield prospects who mashed in High-A, but took dips the following years in Richmond: Thomas Neal and Roger Kieschnick.
2009 was a coming out party for Neal, as he posted a solid .242 ISO in San Jose, thanks to 22 home runs and a slugging percentage of .579. Neal, not previously a highly touted prospect in the Giants system (he was a 36th round draft pick out of junior college), climbed up the boards after his monster year, as Fangraphs had him listed as the the third best prospect in the Giants system in 2010 after Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (quite good company). In addition to the power numbers, a lot of analysts were high on Neal because of his improved approach at the plate in San Jose, as his BB/K ratio went up from 0.47 in 2008 in Augusta to 0.66 in SJ (he posted a BB percentage of 11.6 percent and a K percentage of 17.5 percent). Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet said this about Neal in his 2010 Giants write-up.
Neal's impressive 2009 performance merited a Spring Training invite in 2010, but the transition to the Eastern league proved to be a challenge for the 23-year-old from Riverside Junior College. Despite having 26 more plate appearances in 2010, his home run total dipped to 12 and his ISO fell to .149 (and consequently his wOBA tumbled almost a 100 points to .359). Also, he seemed to struggle against the better pitching as well, as his BB/K ratio fell to 0.49, with the walk rate taking the biggest hit, as it dropped to 7.9 percent, the lowest percentage since 2006, his first year in pro ball. While the numbers were not bad by any measure on a hitting standpoint, considering he was the third-best prospect in the Giants system, and his calling card was his bat (especially the power), the regression was a bit of a disappointment for Giants fans who envisioned him a future corner outfielder for the Giants in 2012 or 2013.
Things seemed to only get worse for Neal in 2011 (though it started well with him getting put on the 40-man roster), as his power continued to wilt even in the Pacific Coast League, as his ISO and wOBA fell to .114 and .336, respectively. Even worse, he looked even more lost at the plate with the Grizzlies than with the Flying Squirrels, as he had a 0.26 BB/K rate in 239 plate appearances, amplified by a 20.9 strikeout percentage, the second highest percentage in his career. Neal's decline from top-prospect to most likely a utility outfielder made him expendable to the Giants brass, as he was traded in a mid-season deal for middle infielder Orlando Cabrera (any time you get traded for a player like Cabrera, it means that management doesn't think much of you).
As for Kieschnick, his tumble in the Eastern League is much more evident, though to be honest, injuries have had a part in the hindering of his development. Much like Neal, Kieschnick went bonkers in the Cal League in 2009, as he hit 23 home runs and posted an ISO of .236 and an OPS of .876 in 563 plate appearances. Considering it was his first year of professional ball, there was a lot of hopes that the third round pick out of Texas Tech could be a better-hitting Nate Schierholtz in the future (his calling card was his rocket arm). Hulet of Fangraphs ranked him as the Giants' 5th best prospect in 2010, and remarked this in his report:
However, Kieschnick's tumble in Double-A was even more dramatic than Neal's. Due to injury, he only had 246 plate appearances and posted a measly .251 average, .298 wOBA and .673 OPS. His home run total fell to four and he had only 15 extra base hits during the injury-shortened campaign. Consequently, he tumbled out of the rankings in 2011 and earned himself a second tour of duty in the Eastern League in 2011. Unfortunately, things did not get better despite a healthier year (he had 501 plate appearances). He hit only .255 and posted a OPS of .737 in his second season with the Flying Squirrles and his ISO remained pedestrian at .174. He did hit 16 home runs and had 22 doubles and five triples, but for the most part, the achillies heel of his game, his plate approach, still did not improve, as he posted a 0.28 BB/K ratio (amplified by a 24.2 percent strikeout rate, a career high) in 2011.
Granted, Kieschnick's flaw as a player has been his inability to make consistent contact (his strikeout percentage in his three pro seasons have been 23.1, 22.4, and 24.2 percent), while not drawing walks to make up for it (his career walk percentage is 6.83). So, in many ways, the Eastern League struggles were probably more predictable than Neal's. That being said, Kieschnick is a prime example of a guy who probably got lifted a little too high in the rankings for a one year sample in a league that obviously hides a lot of hitter's flaws.
As for Brown, is he going to have a similar tumble to Neal and Kieschnick? It's hard to say (because you never know about injuries), but I would say Brown has a lot more going for him than both guys. For starters, Brown is and always was a top prospect, as he was drafted in the first round. He was a top-5 guy in the Giants system last year before his season in San Jose, while Neal and Kieschnick were relatively under-the-radar prospects whose profiles got boosted thanks to impressive (though obviously inflated) Cal League campaigns.
Secondly, Brown's calling card isn't "home-run" power like Neal and Kieschnick. Rather, the strongest part of his game is his speed, and that should be able to transition to the Eastern League, even despite the pitcher friendly confines around the league. Last year, Brown hit 34 doubles and an insane 13 triples in 638 plate appearances. Neal and Kieschnick may have hit more home runs (22 and 23 respectively compared to Brown's 14), but their extra base hits minus home runs don't compare to Brown (Neal had 45 and Kieschnick 27 to Brown's 47; and it must be noted that Neal had 41 doubles, so if you look at it, Brown had more triples than Kieschnick and Neal did combined in 2009). Without question, I would be surprised if Brown launched 14 home runs in Richmond, but while that total will go down, I think he will still manage to post good slugging percentages, because his speed is such a plus-tool.
Of course, the plate approach has people a little worried about Brown and his transition to Double-A. While his BB/K ratio was solid (0.60 in 2011), his walk rates leave a little to be desired. He only posted a 7.2 percent walk rate in San Jose, and in a short stint in the Arizona Fall League before the 2011 campaign, he only drew one (that's right ONE) walk in 55 plate appearances. That being said, he doesn't strikeout a lot either (12.7 percent strikeout rate a year ago), so he's a guy that can make contact consistently, something you couldn't say of Neal and Kieschnick in their tenures in High-A.
Another sneaky factor that could work in Brown's favor is his toughness, as evidenced by his HBP count, which was 23 last year. Add that to his walk total and BB+HBP/K ratio jumps to 0.90. Granted, I don't know if that is a sustainable number, especially as he moves up and faces better and better pitching, but it shows that Brown has an aggressive approach at the plate and that he is willing to get on base any way necessary, which is definitely a plus in his favor.
Overall, I like Brown a lot, and if he can continue to progress in Double-A at the plate like he did in High-A, then it is very likely to think that he could push for a starting job in the Giants outfield in 2013 (he's probably blocked this year due to Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera). In my opinion, the home run power most likely will take a dip, but he's probably an 8-15 home run guy at the majors anyways, so that shouldn't be too much of an alarm. His speed on the basepaths, his ability to stretch hits and make consistent contact should bode him well at the plate in Richmond, and I don't think Giants fans will see the dramatic drop off from Brown in 2012 like former outfield prospects Neal and Kieschnick in 2010.
Without a doubt, offensively, it was a banner year for Brown, but as most Giants fans know, High-A tends to be a banner year for most position prospects in the Giants system due to the hitter-friendly environments of the California League. The big question now will be how his bat will transition to the Eastern League where he will not only face better pitching, but hitting environments that favor the pitchers considerably so.
If you don't believe me, let's take a look at two formerly touted outfield prospects who mashed in High-A, but took dips the following years in Richmond: Thomas Neal and Roger Kieschnick.
2009 was a coming out party for Neal, as he posted a solid .242 ISO in San Jose, thanks to 22 home runs and a slugging percentage of .579. Neal, not previously a highly touted prospect in the Giants system (he was a 36th round draft pick out of junior college), climbed up the boards after his monster year, as Fangraphs had him listed as the the third best prospect in the Giants system in 2010 after Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (quite good company). In addition to the power numbers, a lot of analysts were high on Neal because of his improved approach at the plate in San Jose, as his BB/K ratio went up from 0.47 in 2008 in Augusta to 0.66 in SJ (he posted a BB percentage of 11.6 percent and a K percentage of 17.5 percent). Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet said this about Neal in his 2010 Giants write-up.
"In fairness, his ’09 numbers may have been helped by a good hitting environment. Even so, the 22-year-old outfielder hit .337/.431/.579 in 475 at-bats. His ISO rate jumped from .168 in low-A in ’08 to .242 in high-A in ’09. Neal has also shown solid patience at the plate over the past three seasons, topping out at 11.6 BB% this past year. He did a nice job of trimming his strikeout rate by 4% over ’08′s 24.1%. It will be hard for Neal to improve upon his .444 wOBA from ’09 but he has the talent to be a star corner outfielder for the Giants."
Neal's impressive 2009 performance merited a Spring Training invite in 2010, but the transition to the Eastern league proved to be a challenge for the 23-year-old from Riverside Junior College. Despite having 26 more plate appearances in 2010, his home run total dipped to 12 and his ISO fell to .149 (and consequently his wOBA tumbled almost a 100 points to .359). Also, he seemed to struggle against the better pitching as well, as his BB/K ratio fell to 0.49, with the walk rate taking the biggest hit, as it dropped to 7.9 percent, the lowest percentage since 2006, his first year in pro ball. While the numbers were not bad by any measure on a hitting standpoint, considering he was the third-best prospect in the Giants system, and his calling card was his bat (especially the power), the regression was a bit of a disappointment for Giants fans who envisioned him a future corner outfielder for the Giants in 2012 or 2013.
Things seemed to only get worse for Neal in 2011 (though it started well with him getting put on the 40-man roster), as his power continued to wilt even in the Pacific Coast League, as his ISO and wOBA fell to .114 and .336, respectively. Even worse, he looked even more lost at the plate with the Grizzlies than with the Flying Squirrels, as he had a 0.26 BB/K rate in 239 plate appearances, amplified by a 20.9 strikeout percentage, the second highest percentage in his career. Neal's decline from top-prospect to most likely a utility outfielder made him expendable to the Giants brass, as he was traded in a mid-season deal for middle infielder Orlando Cabrera (any time you get traded for a player like Cabrera, it means that management doesn't think much of you).
As for Kieschnick, his tumble in the Eastern League is much more evident, though to be honest, injuries have had a part in the hindering of his development. Much like Neal, Kieschnick went bonkers in the Cal League in 2009, as he hit 23 home runs and posted an ISO of .236 and an OPS of .876 in 563 plate appearances. Considering it was his first year of professional ball, there was a lot of hopes that the third round pick out of Texas Tech could be a better-hitting Nate Schierholtz in the future (his calling card was his rocket arm). Hulet of Fangraphs ranked him as the Giants' 5th best prospect in 2010, and remarked this in his report:
"The left-handed hitter did a nice job of handling southpaws by posting a .933 OPS on the heels of a .400 BABIP. His OPS against right-handers was .832. Kieschnick is a hustler on the base paths and in the field despite average speed. He also has the arm strength for right field."
However, Kieschnick's tumble in Double-A was even more dramatic than Neal's. Due to injury, he only had 246 plate appearances and posted a measly .251 average, .298 wOBA and .673 OPS. His home run total fell to four and he had only 15 extra base hits during the injury-shortened campaign. Consequently, he tumbled out of the rankings in 2011 and earned himself a second tour of duty in the Eastern League in 2011. Unfortunately, things did not get better despite a healthier year (he had 501 plate appearances). He hit only .255 and posted a OPS of .737 in his second season with the Flying Squirrles and his ISO remained pedestrian at .174. He did hit 16 home runs and had 22 doubles and five triples, but for the most part, the achillies heel of his game, his plate approach, still did not improve, as he posted a 0.28 BB/K ratio (amplified by a 24.2 percent strikeout rate, a career high) in 2011.
Granted, Kieschnick's flaw as a player has been his inability to make consistent contact (his strikeout percentage in his three pro seasons have been 23.1, 22.4, and 24.2 percent), while not drawing walks to make up for it (his career walk percentage is 6.83). So, in many ways, the Eastern League struggles were probably more predictable than Neal's. That being said, Kieschnick is a prime example of a guy who probably got lifted a little too high in the rankings for a one year sample in a league that obviously hides a lot of hitter's flaws.
As for Brown, is he going to have a similar tumble to Neal and Kieschnick? It's hard to say (because you never know about injuries), but I would say Brown has a lot more going for him than both guys. For starters, Brown is and always was a top prospect, as he was drafted in the first round. He was a top-5 guy in the Giants system last year before his season in San Jose, while Neal and Kieschnick were relatively under-the-radar prospects whose profiles got boosted thanks to impressive (though obviously inflated) Cal League campaigns.
Secondly, Brown's calling card isn't "home-run" power like Neal and Kieschnick. Rather, the strongest part of his game is his speed, and that should be able to transition to the Eastern League, even despite the pitcher friendly confines around the league. Last year, Brown hit 34 doubles and an insane 13 triples in 638 plate appearances. Neal and Kieschnick may have hit more home runs (22 and 23 respectively compared to Brown's 14), but their extra base hits minus home runs don't compare to Brown (Neal had 45 and Kieschnick 27 to Brown's 47; and it must be noted that Neal had 41 doubles, so if you look at it, Brown had more triples than Kieschnick and Neal did combined in 2009). Without question, I would be surprised if Brown launched 14 home runs in Richmond, but while that total will go down, I think he will still manage to post good slugging percentages, because his speed is such a plus-tool.
Of course, the plate approach has people a little worried about Brown and his transition to Double-A. While his BB/K ratio was solid (0.60 in 2011), his walk rates leave a little to be desired. He only posted a 7.2 percent walk rate in San Jose, and in a short stint in the Arizona Fall League before the 2011 campaign, he only drew one (that's right ONE) walk in 55 plate appearances. That being said, he doesn't strikeout a lot either (12.7 percent strikeout rate a year ago), so he's a guy that can make contact consistently, something you couldn't say of Neal and Kieschnick in their tenures in High-A.
Another sneaky factor that could work in Brown's favor is his toughness, as evidenced by his HBP count, which was 23 last year. Add that to his walk total and BB+HBP/K ratio jumps to 0.90. Granted, I don't know if that is a sustainable number, especially as he moves up and faces better and better pitching, but it shows that Brown has an aggressive approach at the plate and that he is willing to get on base any way necessary, which is definitely a plus in his favor.
Overall, I like Brown a lot, and if he can continue to progress in Double-A at the plate like he did in High-A, then it is very likely to think that he could push for a starting job in the Giants outfield in 2013 (he's probably blocked this year due to Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera). In my opinion, the home run power most likely will take a dip, but he's probably an 8-15 home run guy at the majors anyways, so that shouldn't be too much of an alarm. His speed on the basepaths, his ability to stretch hits and make consistent contact should bode him well at the plate in Richmond, and I don't think Giants fans will see the dramatic drop off from Brown in 2012 like former outfield prospects Neal and Kieschnick in 2010.
Friday, May 13, 2011
OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 21, Roger Kieschnick, OF
Roger Kieschnick is an outfield prospect who broke onto the scene fast in 2009, but took a big step back in 2010. After producing big numbers in three years at Texas Tech (he hit 39 homers and posted ISO numbers of .319 and .327 his last two years with the Red Raiders), he was drafted by the Giants in the third round of the 2008 MLB Draft. Considering his college pedigree and five-tool potential, many experts felt that the Giants got a steal in the third round with Kieschnick (Baseball America rated him at the time as one of the system’s best prospects).
In 2009, he earned a promotion to San Jose right off the bat, and he was perhaps the Giants’ most dynamic hitter in the system in his first professional year. In 517 plate appearances, Kieschnick hit 23 home runs, drove in 110 RBI, and posted an ISO of .236 and an OPS of .874. He also displayed some good speed and athleticism, as his defense earned good reports, and he stole nine bases on ten attempts in 2009.
Kieschnick’s campaign in the California League was far from perfect, however. While his power numbers were nice, there were major concerns about his swing (scouts noticed that he had a lengthy swing and didn’t always stay back on pitches) as well as his plate approach. He didn’t walk very much (6.4 percent walk rate) and he whiffed at a very high rate (25.1 percent), which produced very alarming BB/K ratios (0.28). Also, Kieschnick showed slightly below contact ability (75 percent contact rate) in a league that favored hitters. That being said, a lot of people cut him some slack, mainly because it was his first year in professional ball and his plate approach would improve as he got more at-bats under his belt in the minors.
The breakout season earned him some nice attention from a lot of publications and scouts. Baseball America in 2010 named him in the seventh best prospect in the Giants system, and Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet had him pegged as the fifth-best prospect in the Giants system, behind only Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Thomas Neal, and Dan Runzler.
Unfortunately, Kieschnick struggled to build upon his solid California League campaign in 2009, as he regressed statistically in Richmond. Back spasms and issues limited Kieschnick to only 60 games and 246 plate appearances, but even in the limited action, he didn’t impress. He only hit .251, with a .117 ISO and .673 OPS, all dramatic drop offs from the previous season. His eye at the plate improved a little bit (his BB/K ratio rose to 0.33), but it still was far from impressive and didn’t make up for the lack of power and overall regression he suffered in the Eastern League.
Of course, there were a couple of things that lessened the blow of Kieschnick’s down year. First off, he was injured, and it was an injury that obviously affected his production mightily (it took an 0-for-34 slide before Kieschnick finally admitted that something needed to be done). Also, the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers greatly, so while the massive offensive drop off was surprising, some kind of regression was to be expected, especially considering he was in his second season of professional ball and he was a year younger than the average EL player.
The Giants assigned Kieschnick for a second year in Richmond this season, hoping that he’d fare better against Eastern League pitching now that he is healthy and with a year of Double-A under his belt. Unfortunately, Kieschnick hasn’t shown much sign of improvement during this first month of play, as he is hitting .200 with a .529 OPS and only nine extra base hits. Striking out continues to be an issue as he has punched out 24 times in 120 at-bats, and sports a BB/K ratio of 0.38. His approach and eye at the plate is probably going to be a continuing issue for Kieschnick as evidenced by the past couple of years in Double-A. That being said, without the power to make up for the lackluster plate approach, Kieschnick doesn’t offer much as a prospect, and that makes his future with the Giants organization a little bleak (especially considering the talent in the Giants system in the outfield).
There are some things to like about Kieschnick. He’s a good defender (the Minor League Baseball Analyst has him as four-plus rated defender), and he showed in college and in the California League that when he gets behind the ball, he can drive in runs and extra base hits. The only problem is that he’s struggled to make consistent contact and his plate discipline needs to improve, especially when it comes to swinging at pitches he can drive. It is still early in the year of course, and there are some signs that Kieschnick can turn things around in the Eastern League at the plate (he doubled twice in a game against the Bowie Bay Sox on May 11th).
That being said, his status is a little bit questionable as a prospect, and one has to wonder if he was just a beneficiary of the California League’s hitter friendly environments. He looks to have some Nate Schierholtz potential, especially with his solid defensive skills and Team USA baseball pedigree. However, Kieschnick this year needs to start showing at least a semblance of the power he displayed in San Jose if he wants to be considered a serious prospect again like he was prior to the 2010 season.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
The Early Season Struggles of Thomas Neal in Richmond
Richmond is a team loaded with talent. Just look at the roster (especially offensively) from top to bottom, and there will be a lot of names that will jump out at you. Darren Ford, Conor Gillaspie, Nick Noonan, Brandon Crawford, Roger Kieschnick, Thomas Neal, etc. Most of the players on this Flying Squirrles roster tore it up in the California League for the San Jose Giants, arguably the best team in Minor League Baseball in 2009.
Well, how's it going for these former California League studs?
At this point, the results haven't been too hot.
Darren Ford is putting up solid average numbers (.286 average, .723 OPS), but he is tied for the team lead in strikeouts (15) and hasn't been that efficient on the base paths (only four stolen bases on seven tries). Gillaspie is showing some power (three home runs; .738 OPS), but defensively he continues to prove that third base is a bad fit (three errors). Crawford got off to a hot start, but has cooled dramatically (he is hitting .222 with a .661 OPS). Noonan continues to show his age (e.g. that he still is far from ready from the Major League level) and Kieschnick is proving to be a strikeout machine (15) without the homers (zero) or walks (three) to back it up.
The most startling start, however? That honor belongs, unfortunately, to Neal.
Neal on paper looks awful. His batting average is .203 and while his OBP isn't too awful (.311), his slugging numbers have been less than thrilling (.359 slugging, .670 OPS).
To put things into perspective, Neal posted a slugging percentage of .579 and an OPS of 1.010 in 2009 in Advanced Single-A. He hasn't posted an OPS below .800 since his first season in rookie ball, where he posted a .664 OPS in Arizona.
What gives?
In all honesty, it is tough to tell at this point. Despite, the average looking bad, Neal's plate patience has been solid for the most part. If you compare his BB/K ratio (0.57) so far to guys like Ford (0.13), Kieschnick (0.20) and Crawford (0.40), Neal does not look so bad. One of the big compliments about Neal's offensive ability was his improved plate patience in San Jose last year (he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.66). The same seems to be true this year. He still is drawing a good amount of walks despite the lofty strikeout totals, which is something you can't necessarily say of guys like Kieschnick and Ford.
What has really killed Neal so far this season has been the obvious categories. His average looks awful, as does his RBI totals (only six), and considering Gillaspie has hit more home runs in comparison (three to two), which was far from the case last year in San Jose (Neal hit 22 home runs; Gillaspie hit four), it is easy to see why a lot of Giants fans may be starting to panic about Neal's potential (especially with John Bowker continuing to underwhelm at the Major League level).
In my opinion? I think the lack of big-time power numbers early this season shouldn't be too big of a concern. Neal is still accumulating bases (his 23 TB is third-most on the team), and he is still drawing a good amount of walks, so overall, there should be no reason for Giants fans to panic. He just hasn't had a lot of things fall for him so far, which is bound to change as the season progresses. In my mind, high-strikeout, low-walk guys like Ford or Kieschnick are a much bigger worry to me than Neal at this point.
So what should Giants fans think about Neal? He is still a Top-5 prospect in the Giants system, despite this slow start and disappointing Spring Training. I think fans had illusions that he would be a guaranteed call up this season when I think that was unfair. He is still a year away, minimum, from reaching the big-leagues. I have felt that about him since the end of last year, despite the eye-popping numbers he put up in the California League.
There are a lot of things to worry about on this Richmond team (Is Gillaspie and Crawford going to reach their potential? Can Kieschnick's power come back?), but just keep this in mind: Neal is fine and will be fine as the season progresses.
Well, how's it going for these former California League studs?
At this point, the results haven't been too hot.
Darren Ford is putting up solid average numbers (.286 average, .723 OPS), but he is tied for the team lead in strikeouts (15) and hasn't been that efficient on the base paths (only four stolen bases on seven tries). Gillaspie is showing some power (three home runs; .738 OPS), but defensively he continues to prove that third base is a bad fit (three errors). Crawford got off to a hot start, but has cooled dramatically (he is hitting .222 with a .661 OPS). Noonan continues to show his age (e.g. that he still is far from ready from the Major League level) and Kieschnick is proving to be a strikeout machine (15) without the homers (zero) or walks (three) to back it up.
The most startling start, however? That honor belongs, unfortunately, to Neal.
Neal on paper looks awful. His batting average is .203 and while his OBP isn't too awful (.311), his slugging numbers have been less than thrilling (.359 slugging, .670 OPS).
To put things into perspective, Neal posted a slugging percentage of .579 and an OPS of 1.010 in 2009 in Advanced Single-A. He hasn't posted an OPS below .800 since his first season in rookie ball, where he posted a .664 OPS in Arizona.
What gives?
In all honesty, it is tough to tell at this point. Despite, the average looking bad, Neal's plate patience has been solid for the most part. If you compare his BB/K ratio (0.57) so far to guys like Ford (0.13), Kieschnick (0.20) and Crawford (0.40), Neal does not look so bad. One of the big compliments about Neal's offensive ability was his improved plate patience in San Jose last year (he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.66). The same seems to be true this year. He still is drawing a good amount of walks despite the lofty strikeout totals, which is something you can't necessarily say of guys like Kieschnick and Ford.
What has really killed Neal so far this season has been the obvious categories. His average looks awful, as does his RBI totals (only six), and considering Gillaspie has hit more home runs in comparison (three to two), which was far from the case last year in San Jose (Neal hit 22 home runs; Gillaspie hit four), it is easy to see why a lot of Giants fans may be starting to panic about Neal's potential (especially with John Bowker continuing to underwhelm at the Major League level).
In my opinion? I think the lack of big-time power numbers early this season shouldn't be too big of a concern. Neal is still accumulating bases (his 23 TB is third-most on the team), and he is still drawing a good amount of walks, so overall, there should be no reason for Giants fans to panic. He just hasn't had a lot of things fall for him so far, which is bound to change as the season progresses. In my mind, high-strikeout, low-walk guys like Ford or Kieschnick are a much bigger worry to me than Neal at this point.
So what should Giants fans think about Neal? He is still a Top-5 prospect in the Giants system, despite this slow start and disappointing Spring Training. I think fans had illusions that he would be a guaranteed call up this season when I think that was unfair. He is still a year away, minimum, from reaching the big-leagues. I have felt that about him since the end of last year, despite the eye-popping numbers he put up in the California League.
There are a lot of things to worry about on this Richmond team (Is Gillaspie and Crawford going to reach their potential? Can Kieschnick's power come back?), but just keep this in mind: Neal is fine and will be fine as the season progresses.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Neal, Kieschnick, Fairley: Which OF Prospects Are Primed for "Giants" Success?
With Spring Training beginning it's third week of play, a lot of interesting questions have sprung up around Giants camp in Scottsdale.
1.) Is Madison Bumgarner going to start the year in San Francisco or Fresno?
2.) Is Fred Lewis going to be traded or released considering he has no minor league options left on his contract?
3.) When will Buster Posey supplant Bengie Molina in the starting lineup next season?
While all those questions are interesting, I will be examining one question that is commonly lost in the shuffle of all the "big-name" Spring Training headlines:
Which prospects are making a name for themselves this Spring Training?
Granted, there are a lot of names: Nick Noonan, Brandon Crawford, Francisco Peguero, Darren Ford, Kevin Pucetas, Steve Edlefsen, etc. The list really could go on and on and on.
That being said, there are three outfield prospects that have gauged my interest since last season: Thomas Neal, Roger Kieschnick and Wendell Fairley.
All three prospects have come with some kind of reputation going into Spring Training (and they are all Non-Roster invitees by the way). Which guys are coming off solid seasons in 2009? Which guys are primed for success in 2010 and beyond? And which guys are making progress this Spring in Cactus League play?
Let's take a look at the outfielders and their profiles.
(Note: Spring Training stats are accumulated before today's game against Cleveland.)
Thomas Neal (22, 36th round draft pick of the 2005 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: High-A San Jose)
How Did Neal Perform in 2009?
Though a later rounds pick, Neal has burst onto the scene in the San Francisco Giants organization. Last year, in San Jose, Neal put up unbelievable numbers in California League play. In 129 games, he hit .337 with 22 home runs, 90 RBI, scored 102 runs and put up a .431 OBP, a 1.010 OPS, and a wOBA (weighted on base average using linear weights) of .444. Additionally, Neal showed solid patience at the plate, as evidenced by his 11.6 walk rate and 0.66 BB/K ratio.
Neal was such a stud last year in the minors that Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet listed him as the No. 3 prospect in the Giants organization, behind only Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. To put this high ranking into context, Neal ranked ahead of Dan Runzler (no. 4), Waldis Joaquin (no. 10), and Francisco Peguero (no. 9), all players that are currently on the Giants 40-man roster going into the 2010 season.
How Good of a Player is Neal?
Neal has the potential to be a force on the offensive end. Though, his 2009 season was obviously his magnus opus so far of his Minor League career, Neal also showed excellent potential the last couple of seasons.
In 2007, before he got hurt, he hit .318 with an .875 OPS and a .419 wOBA in Arizona Rookie League (he only played 10 games before he was injured and missed the rest of the year). The most promising numbers of his short season were his walk percentages and BB/K ratios, which happened to be 10.9 and 0.71, respectively.
In 2008, Neal showed steady improvement, and proved that his injury was a thing of the past. In Single-A Augusta, he put up a .276 average, a .359 OBP, an .803 OPS and a .359 wOBA. Though his walk percentage fell to 9.6, and his BB/K ratio fell to 0.47 in 2008, his power numbers made up for the drop in his plate patience categories. In Augusta, Neal hit 15 home runs, 25 doubles, drove in 81 RBI and scored 69 runs.
As you can see, there is a lot Neal can offer to this Giants organization on the offensive end. His 37 homers the past couple of years show he has power potential, and his 171 runs scored and RBI the past two years in Augusta and San Jose show that he is capable of generating a lot of runs (something the Giants need after ranking 25th in the Majors in runs scored last season). Furthermore, Neal shows a lot of patience at the plate and is able to generate walks impressively at the Minor League level. In his four minor league stints in Salem-Keizer, Arizona, Augusta, and San Jose, Neal has only had a walk percentage under 9.6 once (3.7 his rookie year of professional ball in Salem-Keizer).
What Could Hold Neal Back?
While Neal has a tendency to draw a good amount of walks, he is also susceptible to striking out quite a bit too boot. In 2009, he struck out 20.6 percent of the time and in 2008, he struck out 24.1 percent of the time as well. In fact, in his four stints at the Minor League level, Neal has only had a strikeout percentage under 20 percent once (2007, where it was 17.9 percent, but that was only in 10 games).
Additionally, there have been a lot of questions about Neal's defensive ability. While he is a solid offensive player, many experts do not think Neal has the defensive ability to be a regular outfielder for the Giants in the future (especially considering AT&T Park's tough dimensions). Many believe that Neal should probably move to first base to hide his average defensive abilities. Do I agree with those critics? It's tough to say, but if you look at his range factor per game numbers (1.64 RF/G in LF in San Jose), perhaps a move to first base wouldn't be such a bad idea for Neal.
How's Neal Doing so Far in Spring Training?
He isn't getting a ton of playing time, so you have to take these numbers with a grain of salt. That being said, he hasn't wowed statistically at the plate so far in Cactus League play. In nine at-bats, Neal has only one hit, and has a .222 OBP, a .125 slugging percentage, and a .125 batting average. To make matters worse, he has also struck out three times, which doesn't bode well for him silencing those critics who say he strikes out too much at the Minor League level.
Prediction on Neal: A solid player, who will be either a star or at the very least, an above-average MLB player. It probably won't happen next year, but definitely expect Neal to be on the 40-man roster and competing for a spot on the 25-man active roster in 2011.
Roger Kieschnick (23, 3rd round draft pick of the 2008 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: High-A San Jose)
How Did Kieschnick Perform in 2009?
Kieschnick, a rookie out of Texas Tech University, came out and performed well in his first season in the minors. In San Jose, he hit 23 home runs, 37 doubles, 8 triples, drove in 110 RBI and scored 86 runs. Also, he posted a .296 average, a .345 OBP, a .876 OPS, and a wOBA of .381. Kieschnick also showed some speed and ability on the basepaths, as evidenced by his 9 stolen bases on 10 attempts.
For a player just one year removed from college, Kieschnick showed that he was well ahead of schedule offensively, which led to him being a Non-Roster invitee this Spring Training.
How Good of a Player is Kieschnick?
Offensively, there is a lot Kieschnick offers. He can hit for power and he can hit for average to boot. Furthermore, he's above average defensively in right field (he posted a 1.75 RF/G last year and had 11 outfield assists) and he has good speed for his size (he's six-foot, three-inches and weights 200 pounds).
If you have to compare Kieschnick to anybody on the Giants current roster, the best example may be Nate Schierholtz. That being said, Kieschnick may have more power potential than Schierholtz (Schierholtz never hit more than 18 home runs at any level in the Minor Leagues).
What Could Hold Kieschnick Back?
Kieschnick has only one Minor League season under his belt, but there were some alarming numbers in his plate patience categories. In San Jose last year, he only had a 6.4 walk percentage and a BB/K ratio of 0.28. Furthermore, his strikeout rate was uncomfortably high at 25.1 percent. Those numbers aren't exactly promising, especially considering they occurred at only High Single-A.
To make matters worse, Kieschnick proved to be extraordinarily lucky in terms of finding hits. His BABIP was .352 last year. While that number isn't incredibly high in general, his lack of ability to draw walks (and strikeout often) could mean that his stats could take a massive hit if his BABIP dips. Considering that the California League is widely known as a "hitter's league," it is unlikely that Kieschnick will be able to sustain a high BABIP again in Double-A or Triple-A in 2010.
How's Kieschnick Doing So Far in Spring Training?
He has two less at-bats than Neal, but Kieschnick has already put up good numbers. He has three hits, has scored one run and drove in one RBI. He also has one stolen base on one attempt.
Yet the best numbers for Kieschnick this Spring Training? He has zero strikeouts and one walk in seven games.
Prediction on Kieschnick: Kieschnick has a potential to be a Schierholtz with more pop on the bat. However, whether or not he lives up to that comparison is very tough, considering he has only one year of professional baseball underneath his belt. That being said, Kieschnick will be a very interesting player to watch as he makes a transition to Double-A this season.
Wendell Fairley (22 on March 17, 1st round pick of the 2007 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: Single-A)
How Did Fairley Perform in 2009?
To be honest, not very well. Fairley stats in Augusta were very disappointing across the board. He posted a .243 batting average, a .323 OBP, a .656 OPS, and a .307 wOBA for the Greenjackets last season. His plate patience numbers were atrocious as well, as he had a walk percentage of 9.2, a strikeout percentage of 29.9 and a BB/K ratio of 0.35 (a 35-point drop from his 2008 in Arizona Rookie League, where his BB/K ratio was 0.70).
Also, while Fairley was touted in 2007 for his "Five Tool" ability, Fairley didn't show much on the basepaths or out on the field. He only had two stolen bases on six attempts, he committed seven errors and only posted a RF/G of 1.36 in left field in 2009.
How Good of a Player is Fairley?
Obsessive Giants Compulsive gave a pretty good review of Fairly when he was drafted back in 2007, and after reading it, you feel some hope that the kid can turn it around after a slow start in the Minor Leagues so far.
Despite putting up pedestrian stats in average, stolen bases and slugging his first two years in Rookie and Single-A, Fairley showed some promising plate patience in 2008 in Arizona Rookie League. In 52 games, Fairley posted a a .388 OBP, a .363 wOBA and a 0.70 BB/K ratio (compounded by a 10.9 walk percentage). While he took a step back in Augusta in 2009, it isn't completely out of the question that 2009 was just an off-year for him. After all, while his strikeout rate inflated with the Greenjackets, his walk rate didn't regress all that much.
Another factor in Fairley's favor is the fact that he is still young and he has time to develop. He can afford to spend another year in Augusta to fine tune his game and approach at the plate.
What Could Hold Fairley Back?
Well...to put it kindly...a lot.
Fairley wasn't quite heralded when he was drafted (many felt he was drafted too high), and he was deemed a "tumbler" in the Giants minor league system after his ROOKIE year (that was before his atrocious season in Augusta in 2009).
In many ways, Fairely suffers from the same problems a lot of guys with "multiple tools" suffer from: high strikeout rates, not as much power as advertised, etc. However, the most concerning aspect of Fairley's game has to be his stolen base ability. He just isn't very good at swiping bags, and that may hurt his value and his projection as a player in general. In 2008, he had 7 stolen bases on 10 attempts. Then, he dipped to two the next season. What makes it worse? The fact that he played in 54 more games in 2009 than 2008, and he had five LESS stolen bases.
Darren Ford, another "multiple tools player," also struggled at the plate for a couple of years in Single-A in the Milwaukee Brewers' organization. Yet, Ford always posted solid stolen base numbers to combat his mediocre offensive averages and power numbers. Fairley doesn't even have the luxury of that. So, it makes you wonder: what does Fairley offer this Giants organization?
How's Fairley Doing So Far in Spring Training?
Amazingly, Fairley isn't doing all that bad. He does have two strikeouts in four at-bats, but he does have two hits, including a double, and has accumulated three total bases. Thus, Fairley's averages look great so far (.500 average and OBP, .750 slugging percentage). That being said, considering the sample is so small, his high offensive averages are probably a fluke, and if given more playing time, it is highly likely that his numbers this Spring will fall down to earth.
Prediction on Fairley: There's still some potential, but not a lot left after two sub-par seasons in the Minors. Unfortunately, Fairley doesn't offer the Giants much and doesn't seem to excel in any category, be it at the plate, defensively, or on the basepaths. From what it seems, he was drafted too high in 2007, and he'll never be able to live up to the expectations of being a first round pick.
1.) Is Madison Bumgarner going to start the year in San Francisco or Fresno?
2.) Is Fred Lewis going to be traded or released considering he has no minor league options left on his contract?
3.) When will Buster Posey supplant Bengie Molina in the starting lineup next season?
While all those questions are interesting, I will be examining one question that is commonly lost in the shuffle of all the "big-name" Spring Training headlines:
Which prospects are making a name for themselves this Spring Training?
Granted, there are a lot of names: Nick Noonan, Brandon Crawford, Francisco Peguero, Darren Ford, Kevin Pucetas, Steve Edlefsen, etc. The list really could go on and on and on.
That being said, there are three outfield prospects that have gauged my interest since last season: Thomas Neal, Roger Kieschnick and Wendell Fairley.
All three prospects have come with some kind of reputation going into Spring Training (and they are all Non-Roster invitees by the way). Which guys are coming off solid seasons in 2009? Which guys are primed for success in 2010 and beyond? And which guys are making progress this Spring in Cactus League play?
Let's take a look at the outfielders and their profiles.
(Note: Spring Training stats are accumulated before today's game against Cleveland.)
Thomas Neal (22, 36th round draft pick of the 2005 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: High-A San Jose)
How Did Neal Perform in 2009?
Though a later rounds pick, Neal has burst onto the scene in the San Francisco Giants organization. Last year, in San Jose, Neal put up unbelievable numbers in California League play. In 129 games, he hit .337 with 22 home runs, 90 RBI, scored 102 runs and put up a .431 OBP, a 1.010 OPS, and a wOBA (weighted on base average using linear weights) of .444. Additionally, Neal showed solid patience at the plate, as evidenced by his 11.6 walk rate and 0.66 BB/K ratio.
Neal was such a stud last year in the minors that Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet listed him as the No. 3 prospect in the Giants organization, behind only Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. To put this high ranking into context, Neal ranked ahead of Dan Runzler (no. 4), Waldis Joaquin (no. 10), and Francisco Peguero (no. 9), all players that are currently on the Giants 40-man roster going into the 2010 season.
How Good of a Player is Neal?
Neal has the potential to be a force on the offensive end. Though, his 2009 season was obviously his magnus opus so far of his Minor League career, Neal also showed excellent potential the last couple of seasons.
In 2007, before he got hurt, he hit .318 with an .875 OPS and a .419 wOBA in Arizona Rookie League (he only played 10 games before he was injured and missed the rest of the year). The most promising numbers of his short season were his walk percentages and BB/K ratios, which happened to be 10.9 and 0.71, respectively.
In 2008, Neal showed steady improvement, and proved that his injury was a thing of the past. In Single-A Augusta, he put up a .276 average, a .359 OBP, an .803 OPS and a .359 wOBA. Though his walk percentage fell to 9.6, and his BB/K ratio fell to 0.47 in 2008, his power numbers made up for the drop in his plate patience categories. In Augusta, Neal hit 15 home runs, 25 doubles, drove in 81 RBI and scored 69 runs.
As you can see, there is a lot Neal can offer to this Giants organization on the offensive end. His 37 homers the past couple of years show he has power potential, and his 171 runs scored and RBI the past two years in Augusta and San Jose show that he is capable of generating a lot of runs (something the Giants need after ranking 25th in the Majors in runs scored last season). Furthermore, Neal shows a lot of patience at the plate and is able to generate walks impressively at the Minor League level. In his four minor league stints in Salem-Keizer, Arizona, Augusta, and San Jose, Neal has only had a walk percentage under 9.6 once (3.7 his rookie year of professional ball in Salem-Keizer).
What Could Hold Neal Back?
While Neal has a tendency to draw a good amount of walks, he is also susceptible to striking out quite a bit too boot. In 2009, he struck out 20.6 percent of the time and in 2008, he struck out 24.1 percent of the time as well. In fact, in his four stints at the Minor League level, Neal has only had a strikeout percentage under 20 percent once (2007, where it was 17.9 percent, but that was only in 10 games).
Additionally, there have been a lot of questions about Neal's defensive ability. While he is a solid offensive player, many experts do not think Neal has the defensive ability to be a regular outfielder for the Giants in the future (especially considering AT&T Park's tough dimensions). Many believe that Neal should probably move to first base to hide his average defensive abilities. Do I agree with those critics? It's tough to say, but if you look at his range factor per game numbers (1.64 RF/G in LF in San Jose), perhaps a move to first base wouldn't be such a bad idea for Neal.
How's Neal Doing so Far in Spring Training?
He isn't getting a ton of playing time, so you have to take these numbers with a grain of salt. That being said, he hasn't wowed statistically at the plate so far in Cactus League play. In nine at-bats, Neal has only one hit, and has a .222 OBP, a .125 slugging percentage, and a .125 batting average. To make matters worse, he has also struck out three times, which doesn't bode well for him silencing those critics who say he strikes out too much at the Minor League level.
Prediction on Neal: A solid player, who will be either a star or at the very least, an above-average MLB player. It probably won't happen next year, but definitely expect Neal to be on the 40-man roster and competing for a spot on the 25-man active roster in 2011.
Roger Kieschnick (23, 3rd round draft pick of the 2008 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: High-A San Jose)
How Did Kieschnick Perform in 2009?
Kieschnick, a rookie out of Texas Tech University, came out and performed well in his first season in the minors. In San Jose, he hit 23 home runs, 37 doubles, 8 triples, drove in 110 RBI and scored 86 runs. Also, he posted a .296 average, a .345 OBP, a .876 OPS, and a wOBA of .381. Kieschnick also showed some speed and ability on the basepaths, as evidenced by his 9 stolen bases on 10 attempts.
For a player just one year removed from college, Kieschnick showed that he was well ahead of schedule offensively, which led to him being a Non-Roster invitee this Spring Training.
How Good of a Player is Kieschnick?
Offensively, there is a lot Kieschnick offers. He can hit for power and he can hit for average to boot. Furthermore, he's above average defensively in right field (he posted a 1.75 RF/G last year and had 11 outfield assists) and he has good speed for his size (he's six-foot, three-inches and weights 200 pounds).
If you have to compare Kieschnick to anybody on the Giants current roster, the best example may be Nate Schierholtz. That being said, Kieschnick may have more power potential than Schierholtz (Schierholtz never hit more than 18 home runs at any level in the Minor Leagues).
What Could Hold Kieschnick Back?
Kieschnick has only one Minor League season under his belt, but there were some alarming numbers in his plate patience categories. In San Jose last year, he only had a 6.4 walk percentage and a BB/K ratio of 0.28. Furthermore, his strikeout rate was uncomfortably high at 25.1 percent. Those numbers aren't exactly promising, especially considering they occurred at only High Single-A.
To make matters worse, Kieschnick proved to be extraordinarily lucky in terms of finding hits. His BABIP was .352 last year. While that number isn't incredibly high in general, his lack of ability to draw walks (and strikeout often) could mean that his stats could take a massive hit if his BABIP dips. Considering that the California League is widely known as a "hitter's league," it is unlikely that Kieschnick will be able to sustain a high BABIP again in Double-A or Triple-A in 2010.
How's Kieschnick Doing So Far in Spring Training?
He has two less at-bats than Neal, but Kieschnick has already put up good numbers. He has three hits, has scored one run and drove in one RBI. He also has one stolen base on one attempt.
Yet the best numbers for Kieschnick this Spring Training? He has zero strikeouts and one walk in seven games.
Prediction on Kieschnick: Kieschnick has a potential to be a Schierholtz with more pop on the bat. However, whether or not he lives up to that comparison is very tough, considering he has only one year of professional baseball underneath his belt. That being said, Kieschnick will be a very interesting player to watch as he makes a transition to Double-A this season.
Wendell Fairley (22 on March 17, 1st round pick of the 2007 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: Single-A)
How Did Fairley Perform in 2009?
To be honest, not very well. Fairley stats in Augusta were very disappointing across the board. He posted a .243 batting average, a .323 OBP, a .656 OPS, and a .307 wOBA for the Greenjackets last season. His plate patience numbers were atrocious as well, as he had a walk percentage of 9.2, a strikeout percentage of 29.9 and a BB/K ratio of 0.35 (a 35-point drop from his 2008 in Arizona Rookie League, where his BB/K ratio was 0.70).
Also, while Fairley was touted in 2007 for his "Five Tool" ability, Fairley didn't show much on the basepaths or out on the field. He only had two stolen bases on six attempts, he committed seven errors and only posted a RF/G of 1.36 in left field in 2009.
How Good of a Player is Fairley?
Obsessive Giants Compulsive gave a pretty good review of Fairly when he was drafted back in 2007, and after reading it, you feel some hope that the kid can turn it around after a slow start in the Minor Leagues so far.
Despite putting up pedestrian stats in average, stolen bases and slugging his first two years in Rookie and Single-A, Fairley showed some promising plate patience in 2008 in Arizona Rookie League. In 52 games, Fairley posted a a .388 OBP, a .363 wOBA and a 0.70 BB/K ratio (compounded by a 10.9 walk percentage). While he took a step back in Augusta in 2009, it isn't completely out of the question that 2009 was just an off-year for him. After all, while his strikeout rate inflated with the Greenjackets, his walk rate didn't regress all that much.
Another factor in Fairley's favor is the fact that he is still young and he has time to develop. He can afford to spend another year in Augusta to fine tune his game and approach at the plate.
What Could Hold Fairley Back?
Well...to put it kindly...a lot.
Fairley wasn't quite heralded when he was drafted (many felt he was drafted too high), and he was deemed a "tumbler" in the Giants minor league system after his ROOKIE year (that was before his atrocious season in Augusta in 2009).
In many ways, Fairely suffers from the same problems a lot of guys with "multiple tools" suffer from: high strikeout rates, not as much power as advertised, etc. However, the most concerning aspect of Fairley's game has to be his stolen base ability. He just isn't very good at swiping bags, and that may hurt his value and his projection as a player in general. In 2008, he had 7 stolen bases on 10 attempts. Then, he dipped to two the next season. What makes it worse? The fact that he played in 54 more games in 2009 than 2008, and he had five LESS stolen bases.
Darren Ford, another "multiple tools player," also struggled at the plate for a couple of years in Single-A in the Milwaukee Brewers' organization. Yet, Ford always posted solid stolen base numbers to combat his mediocre offensive averages and power numbers. Fairley doesn't even have the luxury of that. So, it makes you wonder: what does Fairley offer this Giants organization?
How's Fairley Doing So Far in Spring Training?
Amazingly, Fairley isn't doing all that bad. He does have two strikeouts in four at-bats, but he does have two hits, including a double, and has accumulated three total bases. Thus, Fairley's averages look great so far (.500 average and OBP, .750 slugging percentage). That being said, considering the sample is so small, his high offensive averages are probably a fluke, and if given more playing time, it is highly likely that his numbers this Spring will fall down to earth.
Prediction on Fairley: There's still some potential, but not a lot left after two sub-par seasons in the Minors. Unfortunately, Fairley doesn't offer the Giants much and doesn't seem to excel in any category, be it at the plate, defensively, or on the basepaths. From what it seems, he was drafted too high in 2007, and he'll never be able to live up to the expectations of being a first round pick.
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