Wow...12 days. Can't really apologize for that long a lay-off, especially considering my history (it would be like Rick Pitino apologizing for another relationship out of wedlock). But, with school being what it is here, and my responsibilities to Seedlings 2 Stars, posting here has been more difficult than usual. Hopefully though, I can get back into the swing of things here at OTF. I will be having a recap of general Minor League performances later this week, and should finish off the rankings for good. Of course, considering my inconsistencies with posting, I will make no guarantees (though I will make guarantees to bitch about how much I'm frustrated with the Brandon Belt situation on Twitter...sorry it couldn't be helped).
Two players who have really jumped out to me to begin the year in 2012 are Juan Perez and Nick Noonan. Both were Top-30 prospects according to Baseball America going into 2011 who fell out of the rankings after lackluster years in Double-A Richmond. However, they have regrouped to have solid starts to begin the 2012 year and one has to wonder if they are in the process of regaining their once-lofty prospect statuses. That being said, are their starts legitimate signs of progress? Or are they just good months that are flashes in the pan?
Let's take a look on the outlook for Perez and Noonan for the remainder of the season.
Juan Perez, Outfielder
Age: 25
Current Team: Richmond Flying Squirrels
2012 numbers: .317 average, .359 OBP, .400 slugging percentage, .759 OPS, 10 runs scored, one home run, three stolen bases, three walks, 14 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances (through 16 games).
Why is Perez's Hot Start Promising?
A late-blooming prospect (Perez didn't break into professional ball until he was 23), Perez has the makings of an Andres Torres-esque player (and I liked Torres a lot when he was a Giant). Despite his diminutive stature (he's five-feet, 11 inches and a 185 pounds), he sports decent pop in his bat (he hit 13 home runs in San Jose in 2010) and good speed on the basepaths (he stole 22 bases on 28 attempts in 2011 in Richmond). Even though he struggled in the transition from the California League to the Eastern League last year (he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances), he has bounced back in a repeat campaign this year, as he is sporting a slash of .317/.359/.400 through 17 games.
With Gary Brown struggling on the offensive end, Perez has been the main catalyst for the Flying Squirrels offense, as he has scored 10 runs and stolen three bases on four attempts. He also has a home run and two doubles, a sign that the power that he displayed in the California League in 2010 wasn't a complete fluke. While it is still early in the year, the solid start in his second year in the EL, along with a good campaign in Spring Training bodes good things for Perez who fell off the radar after the 2011 season. If he continues to build on this solid start, he could be a candidate to move up to Fresno at some point this year, especially if someone gets injured in the Giants outfield.
What Should Giants Fans Expect from Perez for the Remainder of 2012?
Despite the gaudy slash line, Perez's performance has been far from perfect. The biggest concern has been his eye at the plate, which has been raw and unrefined as a professional. Last year, Perez posted a BB/K ratio of 0.29 and this year hasn't been better, despite his familiarity with Eastern League pitching. His BB/K ratio is currently 0.21, highlighted by 14 strikeouts. Add this with a contact rate of 76 percent, and one has to wonder if Perez will ever be able to make consistent enough contact as a professional to be a legitimate Major League player.
That being said, those aspects were concerns of Torres as a professional. However, pre-injury, Torres was able to be a productive player for the Giants during their 2009 and 2010 campaigns. While Torres had a much more patient eye at the plate than Perez, he was also older (Torres was in his early thirties prior to his breakout) and actually was around the same percentage contact-wise. Sans his 2010 campaign in San Jose where he was caught 15 times on 32 attempts, Perez has sported solid speed and efficiency on the basepaths and could be at the very least a platoon player at the Major League level in addition being a solid pinch-running option off the bench. There still is a long way to go for Perez, but his solid April in Richmond is a promising start for the 25-year-old outfielder.
Nick Noonan, Infielder
Age: 22
Current Team: Fresno Grizzlies
2012 numbers: .333 average, .370 OBP, .381 slugging, .751 OPS, 5 runs scored, 1 stolen base, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances.
Why is Noonan's Hot Start So Promising?
Noonan was once a top prospect who held Chase Utley comparisons until he started struggling at the plate starting in 2009 in San Jose. After two lackluster campaigns in Richmond (his Double-A career slash is .226/.290/.297), the Giants decided to move Noonan up to Triple-A to give him a change of pace and scenery. So far, the move has paid off, as Noonan has put up a .751 OPS in 13 games (his previous high OPS was .727 in 2009 in San Jose).
The biggest improvement for Noonan to begin the 2012 year has been his plate approach, as he is currently sporting a BB/K ratio of 0.75. Noonan has always produced good approaches at the plate, for he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.67 and 0.55 in San Jose and Richmond, respectively in 2011. However, considering his campaigns in San Jose and Richmond were repeats of those levels, the fact that he is carrying his disciplined approach to the next level is a promising sign. Furthermore, Noonan has displayed a strong ability to make contact against Pacific Coast League pitching, as his contact rate currently sits at 90 percent for the year. Considering that his career contact rate in Double-A was 78 percent, this is a nice indicator that Noonan is finally honing his approach and abilities at the plate after so many years of disappointing performances in the minors over his professional career.
What Should Giants Fans Expect from Noonan for the Remainder of 2012?
Despite Noonan's nice start at the plate, his defensive play has been a different story. With Charlie Culberson a mainstay at the keystone position and Conor Gillaspie holding down the hot corner, Noonan has flip flopped between shortstop and third base with the Grizzlies in 2012. However, the results have not been good, as he has committed four errors already and is sporting a fielding percentage of .852. If Noonan continues to hit, it is likely that he will get more playing time and thus more opportunities in the field, which naturally will raise his fielding percentage. That being said, Noonan hasn't showed the Giants brass or Grizzlies' coaching staff that his glove merits regular playing time at a certain position so far this year.
Also, while Noonan is obviously performing much better in Triple-A than in Double-A, one has to wonder if his hot start is a true measure of improvement, or if it is proof of the old Brian Sabean-adage that "Triple-A Pitching isn't very good." While it is typical to see top position prospects see extended time in the PCL or IL (International League), the same doesn't ring true for pitchers, as top pitching prospects spend little to no time at all in Triple-A before they make the jump from Double-A to the Majors. Sure, Noonan may be hitting in Fresno, but he might be doing so against Quad-A pitchers or guys who are simply lifetime Minor Leaguers in the Matt Kinney and Kevin Pucetas mold. Hence, Noonan might be able to sustain the hot start he's built in 2012. Unfortunately, unless his glove work gets better, a solid 2012 campaign might not be a sign that he's ready for the Major Leagues, but rather an example of why PCL stats (especially ones in Fresno) should always be taken with a grain of salt.
Showing posts with label Nick Noonan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Noonan. Show all posts
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Is It Time to Give Up on Nick Noonan?
Probably one of the most interesting non-roster invites to Spring Training has to be Nick Noonan. I find it mostly intriguing because he doesn't fit the mold of the typical Spring Training invite: he's not a top prospect anymore (e.g. not Gary Brown), he's not a castoff (e.g. not Brian Burres or Gregor Blanco), he hasn't been in the minors tremendously long (e.g. not Matt Yourkin), and he's not a fringe pitching prospect who is being looked at because he could eat innings should somebody on the 40-man get hurt or fall off a cliff (e.g. not a Justin Fitzgerald or David Quinowski).
Noonan was a top draft pick (Supplemental round pick in the 2007 draft) and prospect in the Giants system after he had a tremendous season in Rookie Ball in 2007 as an 18-year-old. In 224 plate appearances in the Arizona Rookie League, Noonan posted a slash of .316/.357/.451 along with a .809 OPS and .390 wOBA. Considering his age (just out of high school) and his position (middle infield), many Giants fans and baseball analysts thought Noonan had all the makings of a stud-in-waiting. In fact, after his 2008 campaign, many Giants fans were comparing Noonan to Chase Utley, with the hope that Noonan had that kind of star potential and toolset after such a solid first professional season.
In Augusta the next year, his numbers regressed a little, but there was little alarm with the dip. For starters, Noonan was young for the league at 19 (the average age of hitters in the Sally that year was 21.6), and he still posted good numbers for a second baseman with a slash line of .279/.315/.415 and an OPS of .730. That being said, there was a little concern with Noonan's approach, as his BB/K ratio fell from 0.60 in 2008 to 0.23 in 2009. What hurt his BB/K ratio the most was the increase in strikeouts as his his K rate rose from from 8.9 percent in the AZL to 18.4 percent in the Sally. Of course, the Sally is a pitcher's league and Noonan did have more plate appearances in Augusta than in Arizona (532 to 224), so some kind of rise in strikeouts was to be expected, especially considering his youth. Nonetheless, a 10 percent rise was alarming, especially since Noonan didn't appear to be the kind of player that would garner a ton of walks.
Noonan remained high on prospects lists going into 2009, and a breakout season was almost expected from him as he made the transition to San Jose as a 20 year old. Unfortunately, though the Cal League does tend to favor hitters, Noonan looked a bit overwhelmed as his hitting line dropped massively in High-A. In 530 plate appearances, Noonan hit only .259, with an OBP of .329, a slugging of .397 and an OPS of .727. His wOBA regressed again for the second straight year, this time to .325, a bit concerning since hitters numbers tend to inflate in the Cal League, not deflate. Noonan did show a better eye at the plate, as his walk percentage rose to 9.1 percent and his BB/K ratio improved to 0.49. That being said, the Chase Utley comparisons he garnered early on in his career started to look a little premature after his 2009 season.
Though he probably should've started the year again in High-A (his year wasn't that great, he had some flaws he needed to work on and he was still young enough to begin in San Jose), but the Giants brass deemed it necessary to move Noonan up to Double-A in 2010 along with his other 2009 San Jose teammates Roger Kieschnick, Thomas Neal and Conor Gillaspie. The move proved to be a mistake, as Noonan looked totally out of his league at the plate against Eastern League pitching. He put up a slash line of .237/.280/.304 in 406 plate appearances and posted career lows in OPS (.584) and wOBA (.266). His plate approach and eye at the plate took a step back as well in Richmond, as his BB/K ratio fell to 0.30. Without a doubt, Noonan was one of the bigger disappointments in Double-A in 2010, though to be fair, he wasn't alone and probably wasn't the biggest one that year (that honor in my opinion belonged to Kieschnick).
At 22 years old, the Giants decided to keep Noonan in Richmond to begin the year in 2011. However, Noonan didn't play much at second base, as Charlie Culberson (who tore up the Cal League in 2010) manned the position for most of the year for the Flying Squirrels. Instead, Noonan mostly played shortstop, as he played 71 games at the position in 2011. He and Culberson proved to be a good double play combo up the middle, and the position switch did give Noonan some value as it showed he had some versatility as an infielder. His fielding numbers were pretty solid (.970 fielding percentage, 4.07 RF/G), though safe to say, he's far from the best glove at the position in the Giants system (Ehire Adrianza and Brandon Crawford are clearly ahead of him as far as defense is concerned).
While the position switch proved to be valuable to Noonan's status as a prospect, the 2011 season wasn't kind again for Noonan. Though his batting eye improved (11 percent walk rate, a career high, and a 0.55 BB/K ratio), his offensive numbers didn't show much improvement (as evidenced by his .215/.306/.292 slash line). The power he showed in Rookie ball (.136 ISO) has seemed to disappear (.077 ISO in 2011) and even for a middle infielder, his bat seems sub-par to mediocre at best. Noonan did get a cup of coffee in Fresno (13 games and 41 plate appearances) and he performed respectably (.297/.366/.378 slash line), but by the end of the year, he found himself back all the way to San Jose to work on some things at the plate (he posted a .647 OPS and .291 wOBA in 135 plate appearances in San Jose).
To go from Double-A to Triple-A to High-A in the span of months is certainly disheartening for fans of Noonan. At 23 years old, he still has some youth on his side, but he's not getting any younger and he certainly has not gotten better as he's moved up the system, obvious from his disastrous campaigns in Richmond in 2010 and 2011 (though he did have a nice call up in Fresno, it was a VERY small sample). It wouldn't be surprising to see Noonan off of most Baseball Experts' Top-30 lists for the Giants system this winter, especially with infielders such as Culberson and Joe Panik making progress last year.
So, as a Giants fan, it makes one wonder: is all lost on Noonan? Some would like to think so after being demoted to San Jose in August, but Noonan did earn an invite to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, which makes one think that Giants brass still is curious about Noonan in terms of how he will develop. Noonan may not be the Chase Utley-type most Giants fans dreamed of when he came onto the scene in Arizona in 2007, but to be honest, he still has potential to be a good utility infielder type in the Mike Fontenot-mold. Remember, he still is only 23 years old. He is only a year older than Panik, who has played less than a year of professional ball to this point. Yes, his success hasn't come recently by any stretch of the imagination, but late bloomers are common-place in baseball (see Alex Gordon in 2011) and Noonan may be a case of a.) why organizations shouldn't rush their prospects up in the system (the Mets have learned this the hard way with Lastings Milledge and Fernando Martinez) and b.) why fans shouldn't give up on players who still have a lot of playing time left in their careers. Noonan hasn't impressed, but he hasn't stunk it up to the point where one could say that there is no hope for him at all.
Of course, this Spring Training and this upcoming season will be huge for Noonan. A good showing this Spring probably will earn him one last invite to to Richmond, where it will be a crucial year for his status (if he doesn't succeed in a THIRD year in Double-A, then it probably is safe to say that he won't have much of a future in baseball, let alone with the Giants). A poor showing, and well, he could be sent back to High-A again, which would be a back-breaker in his development, especially since Panik is expected to start the year in San Jose and is also widely rumored to move to second base.
I want to believe in Noonan (which is why I didn't list this post as a "tumbler" post; he will be on the list, though very low). I think injuries and a rash rise up the system hurt him, but his improvement in his batting eye last year I think were some nice signs. Of course, the slash line has to improve in 2012, but I think he is certainly capable of posting better offensive numbers in Double-A now that he has had two mediocre years under his belt.
Are the chips stacked against Noonan to succeed as a prospect in the Giants system? No doubt about it. But is it time to give up on him? I would cool the jets on that argument until we see him play in 2012.
Noonan was a top draft pick (Supplemental round pick in the 2007 draft) and prospect in the Giants system after he had a tremendous season in Rookie Ball in 2007 as an 18-year-old. In 224 plate appearances in the Arizona Rookie League, Noonan posted a slash of .316/.357/.451 along with a .809 OPS and .390 wOBA. Considering his age (just out of high school) and his position (middle infield), many Giants fans and baseball analysts thought Noonan had all the makings of a stud-in-waiting. In fact, after his 2008 campaign, many Giants fans were comparing Noonan to Chase Utley, with the hope that Noonan had that kind of star potential and toolset after such a solid first professional season.
In Augusta the next year, his numbers regressed a little, but there was little alarm with the dip. For starters, Noonan was young for the league at 19 (the average age of hitters in the Sally that year was 21.6), and he still posted good numbers for a second baseman with a slash line of .279/.315/.415 and an OPS of .730. That being said, there was a little concern with Noonan's approach, as his BB/K ratio fell from 0.60 in 2008 to 0.23 in 2009. What hurt his BB/K ratio the most was the increase in strikeouts as his his K rate rose from from 8.9 percent in the AZL to 18.4 percent in the Sally. Of course, the Sally is a pitcher's league and Noonan did have more plate appearances in Augusta than in Arizona (532 to 224), so some kind of rise in strikeouts was to be expected, especially considering his youth. Nonetheless, a 10 percent rise was alarming, especially since Noonan didn't appear to be the kind of player that would garner a ton of walks.
Noonan remained high on prospects lists going into 2009, and a breakout season was almost expected from him as he made the transition to San Jose as a 20 year old. Unfortunately, though the Cal League does tend to favor hitters, Noonan looked a bit overwhelmed as his hitting line dropped massively in High-A. In 530 plate appearances, Noonan hit only .259, with an OBP of .329, a slugging of .397 and an OPS of .727. His wOBA regressed again for the second straight year, this time to .325, a bit concerning since hitters numbers tend to inflate in the Cal League, not deflate. Noonan did show a better eye at the plate, as his walk percentage rose to 9.1 percent and his BB/K ratio improved to 0.49. That being said, the Chase Utley comparisons he garnered early on in his career started to look a little premature after his 2009 season.
Though he probably should've started the year again in High-A (his year wasn't that great, he had some flaws he needed to work on and he was still young enough to begin in San Jose), but the Giants brass deemed it necessary to move Noonan up to Double-A in 2010 along with his other 2009 San Jose teammates Roger Kieschnick, Thomas Neal and Conor Gillaspie. The move proved to be a mistake, as Noonan looked totally out of his league at the plate against Eastern League pitching. He put up a slash line of .237/.280/.304 in 406 plate appearances and posted career lows in OPS (.584) and wOBA (.266). His plate approach and eye at the plate took a step back as well in Richmond, as his BB/K ratio fell to 0.30. Without a doubt, Noonan was one of the bigger disappointments in Double-A in 2010, though to be fair, he wasn't alone and probably wasn't the biggest one that year (that honor in my opinion belonged to Kieschnick).
At 22 years old, the Giants decided to keep Noonan in Richmond to begin the year in 2011. However, Noonan didn't play much at second base, as Charlie Culberson (who tore up the Cal League in 2010) manned the position for most of the year for the Flying Squirrels. Instead, Noonan mostly played shortstop, as he played 71 games at the position in 2011. He and Culberson proved to be a good double play combo up the middle, and the position switch did give Noonan some value as it showed he had some versatility as an infielder. His fielding numbers were pretty solid (.970 fielding percentage, 4.07 RF/G), though safe to say, he's far from the best glove at the position in the Giants system (Ehire Adrianza and Brandon Crawford are clearly ahead of him as far as defense is concerned).
While the position switch proved to be valuable to Noonan's status as a prospect, the 2011 season wasn't kind again for Noonan. Though his batting eye improved (11 percent walk rate, a career high, and a 0.55 BB/K ratio), his offensive numbers didn't show much improvement (as evidenced by his .215/.306/.292 slash line). The power he showed in Rookie ball (.136 ISO) has seemed to disappear (.077 ISO in 2011) and even for a middle infielder, his bat seems sub-par to mediocre at best. Noonan did get a cup of coffee in Fresno (13 games and 41 plate appearances) and he performed respectably (.297/.366/.378 slash line), but by the end of the year, he found himself back all the way to San Jose to work on some things at the plate (he posted a .647 OPS and .291 wOBA in 135 plate appearances in San Jose).
To go from Double-A to Triple-A to High-A in the span of months is certainly disheartening for fans of Noonan. At 23 years old, he still has some youth on his side, but he's not getting any younger and he certainly has not gotten better as he's moved up the system, obvious from his disastrous campaigns in Richmond in 2010 and 2011 (though he did have a nice call up in Fresno, it was a VERY small sample). It wouldn't be surprising to see Noonan off of most Baseball Experts' Top-30 lists for the Giants system this winter, especially with infielders such as Culberson and Joe Panik making progress last year.
So, as a Giants fan, it makes one wonder: is all lost on Noonan? Some would like to think so after being demoted to San Jose in August, but Noonan did earn an invite to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, which makes one think that Giants brass still is curious about Noonan in terms of how he will develop. Noonan may not be the Chase Utley-type most Giants fans dreamed of when he came onto the scene in Arizona in 2007, but to be honest, he still has potential to be a good utility infielder type in the Mike Fontenot-mold. Remember, he still is only 23 years old. He is only a year older than Panik, who has played less than a year of professional ball to this point. Yes, his success hasn't come recently by any stretch of the imagination, but late bloomers are common-place in baseball (see Alex Gordon in 2011) and Noonan may be a case of a.) why organizations shouldn't rush their prospects up in the system (the Mets have learned this the hard way with Lastings Milledge and Fernando Martinez) and b.) why fans shouldn't give up on players who still have a lot of playing time left in their careers. Noonan hasn't impressed, but he hasn't stunk it up to the point where one could say that there is no hope for him at all.
Of course, this Spring Training and this upcoming season will be huge for Noonan. A good showing this Spring probably will earn him one last invite to to Richmond, where it will be a crucial year for his status (if he doesn't succeed in a THIRD year in Double-A, then it probably is safe to say that he won't have much of a future in baseball, let alone with the Giants). A poor showing, and well, he could be sent back to High-A again, which would be a back-breaker in his development, especially since Panik is expected to start the year in San Jose and is also widely rumored to move to second base.
I want to believe in Noonan (which is why I didn't list this post as a "tumbler" post; he will be on the list, though very low). I think injuries and a rash rise up the system hurt him, but his improvement in his batting eye last year I think were some nice signs. Of course, the slash line has to improve in 2012, but I think he is certainly capable of posting better offensive numbers in Double-A now that he has had two mediocre years under his belt.
Are the chips stacked against Noonan to succeed as a prospect in the Giants system? No doubt about it. But is it time to give up on him? I would cool the jets on that argument until we see him play in 2012.
Friday, May 6, 2011
OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 25, Nick Noonan, 2B
Nick Noonan is another prospect (much like Henry Sosa, No. 26 on the list), who's stock has taken a considerable plunge over the past couple of seasons. Unlike some experts who think Noonan probably won't live up to the hype he garnered when he was drafted No. 32 in the 2007 MLB Draft, I still think Noonan has a chance to carve out a good professional career in the future. He just won't be the "high-ceiling star" a lot of Giants fans christened him to be early on in his career.
Noonan was drafted out of high school, playing ball in the San Diego area (a very competitive region for high school baseball...then again, most of California is). Scouts had a lot of praise to say about Noonan, especially offensively, as chronicled in a 2007 post by Obsessive Giants Compulsive.
Here is what a couple of NL scouts said in their reports about him:
"Every time you watch him, you get a better appreciation for him and what he can do. He does everything smooth and easy..."
[One NL Scout] considers Nick one of the top high school hitters in Southern California: "I've seen him hit 95 MPH like it's 75 MPH. He has a quick bat and exceptional knowledge of the strike zone. Nothing fazes him. He's just a cool customer - a true baseball player...."
When the Giants got him at No. 32 in the supplemental round, it was considered a steal of sorts. Yes, Noonan was still young and had a lot of development to do as a player. That being said, the Giants could afford to wait, and Noonan seemed to have the tools to succeed.
Noonan came onto the scene fast, hitting pretty well in the Arizona Rookie League. In 224 plate appearances in 2007, he hit .316 with an .809 OPS and three home runs, 40 RBI and had 18 stolen bases on 21 attempts. The impressive campaign by the 18-year-old in the 52 game stretch only added to the hype surrounding Noonan, as the second baseman was on most Giants writers and bloggers Top 10 prospects lists going into the 2008 season.
While he didn't excel like he did in the Rookie League, his time in the SALLY still proved to be a respectable stint for Noonan statistically. While his BB/K ratio fell from an impressive 0.60 in Arizona to 0.23 in Augusta, and his OPS dipped from .809 to .730, Noonan did hit nine home runs, drove in 48 RBI, and stole 29 bases on 33 attempts in 119 games in 532 plate appearances. While the high number of strikeouts (19.6 percent strikeout rate) and low walks (4.3 walk percentage) did alarm some scouts, many felt that his offensive upside, decent power and ability to swipe bags at efficient rate boded well for his future. Futhermore, the fact that he did this as a 19 year old was even more impressive, and the thought was that Noonan's plate approach would get better as he acquired more at-bats and more professional experience.
Unfortunately, 2009 in San Jose didn't exactly prove to be kind to Noonan. While playing on a team stacked with talent such as Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Conor Gillaspie, Thomas Neal and Darren Ford, Noonan didn't exactly stand out in a crowded pool. He hit only .259 with a .727 OPS and seven home runs and 64 RBI. What was most concerning was his dip in stolen bases, as he had only 9 on 14 attempts after swiping 29 in the SALLY. (Of course, he probably wasn't needed to steal bases with Ford on the roster, but nonetheless...the dip was big, especially considering he played five more games in San Jose than Augusta.)
Much like his 2008 campaign in Augusta, many fans remained positive about Noonan's potential, citing his age, an improvement in BB/K ratio (0.49) and a strong finish in the California League (he hit .292 in August and .310 in September) as promising signs that made up for his regressing OPS, slugging and stolen base numbers from the previous seasons.
In 2010, the Giants organization decided to move up Noonan to Richmond along with Neal, Gillaspie, Ford, Brandon Crawford and Roger Kieschnick. The move was a bit rash, since Noonan statistically didn't show anything in San Jose that merited a promotion to Double-A. As expected, the Eastern League proved to be overwhelming for the 21 year old as he hit .237 with a career low .584 OPS and three home runs and 26 RBI in 406 plate appearances with the Flying Squirrels. The improvement he also showed in plate approach in San Jose went out the window as well, as Noonan had a 0.30 BB/K ratio and a career low .266 wOBA. The lackluster season in Double-A killed Noonan's rankings with experts, as John Sickels, who had him ranked as the 13th best player in the Giants system going into 2010, left him off the list completely going into 2011.
This year, Noonan's back in Double-A, and he is off to an okay start (thanks to a big game last night, where he hit a home run in each game of a double-header with New Britain). Currently, he is hitting .246 with a .701 OPS and two home runs and seven RBI in 70 plate appearances. Noonan still has some issues at the plate (he has struck out 15 times this year), but the showing of power this early is nice, and hopefully he can continue to build upon this with a year of the Eastern League already down his belt.
In my opinion, there is still a lot to like about Noonan. There was a whole lot of "Chase Utley" comparisons early-on in his career, and to me, those expectations seemed to be quite lofty and perhaps unfair. Noonan, while inconsistent with the bat, has flashed good defensive skills in the minors, as he has a career fielding percentage of .969 and range factor of 4.74 in 392 games in the minors. If he can be at least "replacement level" offensively (or better yet, slightly above, though I'll settle with "replacement level"), then he could have a future as a utility player in the Mike Fontenot mold because of his defensive ability. As far as developing beyond that comparison though is questionable at best.
Sure, Noonan is still young (he just turned 22 on May 4th), so he has that going for him. That being said, he needs to have a massive change offensively (both in approach and production) if he ever wants to recapture that promise he garnered after his solid AZL campaign in 2007. Considering how he's done so far in 115 games in Double-A, it's probably unlikely he'll bounce back to that "top 20 Giants prospect" status again (though I certainly wouldn't rule it out completely).
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Giant Comeback? Four Infielder Prospects Looking to Bounce Back in 2010
Last year was a great year for some top Giants prospects. Buster Posey certainly made a leap in his first full year of professional ball, Madison Bumgarner made solid headway from Single-A to the Major Leagues and Waldis Joaquin and Dan Runzler proved they could be solid relief options in 2010 after solid Minor (and even Major) League campaigns in 2009.
However, for all the success stories concerning Giants prospects, there were a few downers in 2009. Specifically, four of them were middle infielders (two who were first round draft picks): Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Ehire Adrianza, and Nick Noonan. All four guys were expected to make big leaps after promising 2008 campaigns, but for some reason, none of them really lived up to expectations in 2009.
Now, does that mean the sun has set on these four infield prospects? Not at all. The potential for Major League success as soon as 2010 is still there for some of them. That being said, I feel it is important to look at the four and examine which guys are due for a breakout in 2010, and what are some of the warning signs that may prevent one, a couple (or perhaps all four) of the players from being big-time contributors at the Major League level.
Emmanuel Burriss, 2B/SS (Highest level reached last year: MLB).
2009 stats with Giants: 61 G, 202 AB, 220 PA, 48 H, 42 1B, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 18 R, 13 RBI, 14 BB, 34 SO, 11 SB, .238 AVG., .292 OBP, .560 OPS
How Burriss Struggled in 2009:
Big expectations were put on Burriss, the Giants' First Round Pick in 2006, after a solid 2008 campaign with the Giants, and an even better Spring Training where he put up a .855 OPS in Spring Training prior to the 2009 season. With those credentials, and the second base spot open after Ray Durham's departure, Burriss was given the starting nod at second base with the hope that he would build on those two solid campaigns and become a viable candidate for the leadoff spot in the Giants lineup.
Well, Burriss never really lived up to the promise of 2008 or Spring Training, as he struggled to get on base (.292 OBP) and seemed to be overmatched at the plate. He posted the highest strikeout rate of his professional career with the Giants in 2009 (16.8 percent), and only hit six extra base hits all year (all doubles), which produced a putrid .267 slugging percentage and .560 OPS. Even though Burriss did provide some spark on the bases as expected (11 stolen bases in 2009), his defense didn't live up to billing. After sporting a 3.8 UZR in 2008 at second base, Burriss had a -3.7 UZR in 2009 at second base.
How bad was Burriss in 2009? In WAR values for the Giants, Burriss ranked last in WAR out of any San Francisco positional player at -0.8 (equivalent to $-3.8 million dollars, according to Fangraphs).
Why Giants Fans Should be Hopeful of Burriss:
Talent-wise, Burriss is a very interesting player. He has tremendous base-stealing ability (as evidenced by his 35 and 51 stolen bases in 2007 and 2008 in Salem-Keizer and Augusta), a quality that will be sorely needed in 2010 after the Giants lost their leading stolen base leader (Randy Winn) to free agency this off-season. The Giants really do not have a true leadoff hitter at the moment (Aaron Rowand is predicted to bat lead-off on Opening Day) and though Eugenio Velez and Andres Torres are solid baserunning options, they are much older ( 27 and 32, respectively) and it is debatable whether or not they will get many opportunities considering how crowded the outfield is. With Freddy Sanchez injured, and Edgar Renteria on thin ice, Burriss could have a chance to compete if somebody ahead of him falters and if he can get off to a fast start out of the gate in 2010 in the Minors or even Spring Training.
Offensively, Burriss does not draw a lot of walks (6.4 percent walk rate in 2009, 8.4 percent walk rate in 2008) but with the exception of last season, he does not strike out very much either. In 2008, he had a 0.96 BB/K ratio, and in 2009 with Fresno, he had a 0.75 BB/K ratio. While he could swing less outside of the strike zone (he swung at 28.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone), he has a very strong ability to make contact at the plate. In 2008, he had a contact rate of 90.1 percent and even in his sub-par 2009, he had a contact rate of 84.6 percent, fifth-best of Giants hitters with 20 or more plate appearances.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Burriss:
Speed and defense were supposed to be the key characteristics of Burriss' game. Last year, he only proved the former. His negative UZR at second base was disappointing, and his negative UZR at shortstop in 2008 proved that he may not be as versatile in the field as many Giants fans would like to think.
Furthermore, Burriss' absolute lack of power is a huge red flag. He has never posted a slugging percentage over .370 in his career, and has never sported an OPS over .750 either. Granted, Giants fans don't expect him to be Barry Bonds at the plate, but one would expect with his speed that he would be better in terms of legging out extra-base hits, especially triples. Sadly, that isn't the case. In his career at the Major League level, Burriss has only hit 14 extra-base hits (12 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run) in 494 plate appearances.
Brandon Crawford, 2B (Highest level reached last year: Double-A).
2009 stats with Connecticut (Double-A): 108 G, 392 AB, 423 PA, 101 H, 69 1B, 26 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 38 R, 31 RBI, 20 BB, 100 SO, 11 SB, .258 AVG., .294 OBP, .659 OPS.
How Crawford Struggled in 2009:
Crawford actually tore it up in 2009...in Single-A San Jose that is. In San Jose, Crawford hit .371 with a 1.045 OPS and also hit six home runs and 17 RBI in 25 games in the California League.
However, after getting promoted to Double-A Connecticut, Crawford ran into major problems at the plate.
Nearly every category of his dropped with the Defenders. His average went down to .258, his OPS went down to .659, he couldn't draw a walk to save his life (as evidenced by his 4.7 walk percentage, and .294 OBP), and he suddenly became a modern day recreation of Pedro Feliz circa 2001 when it came to swinging and missing (100 strikeouts in Connecticut, 25.5 percent strikeout rate).
To make things worse, he didn't add much power either in Double-A. After posting a .600 slugging and .229 ISO in San Jose in 2009, his slugging and ISO fell to .395 and .107 respectively. Additionally, he only hit four home runs in 423 plate appearances (he hit six home runs in 119 plate appearances in San Jose).
Why Giants Fans Should Be Hopeful of Crawford:
Crawford has always had raves for his glove and he still remains a solid defensive player. His RF/G was 4.58 in combined Single-A and Double-A play in 2009, so that should give some Giants fans hope considering Edgar Renteria's RF/G was 3.74 for the Giants in 2009. If anything, Crawford would be a solid upgrade over Renteria or even Juan Uribe (who had a 3.78 RF/G in 2009 at shortstop).
Granted, defense isn't everything. Brian Bocock was a good defender too. However, unlike Bocock, Crawford does have an ability to hit. His combined stats in Single-A and Double-A last year were still decent (.282 average, .742 OPS) and he had a solid campaign in Arizona Fall League this year (as evidenced by a .312 average and .850 OPS). If Crawford can get back to Single-A form somewhat, or hover around those combined-level stats from 2009 in 2010, it isn't impossible to think that he could be competing for the starting shortstop job in 2011 once Edgar Renteria's contract is up.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Crawford:
He is 23-years-old, and played three years of college baseball at UCLA. So, he's not exactly young considering where he's at in the minor league system, and he doesn't have a whole lot of time to develop in comparison to guys out of high school (such as Nick Noonan). Therefore, Crawford ceiling may not be very high, and Giants fans could seem him reach it in a couple of years considering his college experience.
That being said, despite his three years of college ball, and two years of professional ball, Crawford has serious issues at the plate. At four levels of play (rookie, short-season Single-A, Advanced Single-A, and Double-A), Crawford's BB/K ratios haven't been great. He had 0.00 BB/K ratio in Arizona and Salem Keizer (because he drew no walks, but then again, it was only a five game sample) and a 0.20 BB/K ratio with the Defenders. Even in his solid outing in San Jose, he BB/K ratio wasn't good at 0.31 (a 30.5 percent strikeout rate probably contributed to such a high ratio).
Ehire Adrianza, SS (Highest level reached last year: Single-A).
2009 Stats with Augusta (Single-A): 117 G, 388 AB, 448 PA, 100 H, 80 1B, 15 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 54 R, 46 RBI, 42 BB, 66 SO, 7 SB, .258 AVG., .333 OBP, .660 OPS.
How Adrianza Struggled in 2009:
Adrianza played sparingly in 2008, but he showed some promise in Rookie League, Short-Season Single-A, and even Triple-A stints. He performed okay in his longest stint of of the year in Arizona Rookie league, hitting .255 with a .349 OBP and .731 OPS, but his two-game cup of coffee in Fresno proved to be the most impressive, as he went 3-for-8 with a double and scored two runs.
Despite the promise from the Fresno games, Adrianza didn't really make a jump at the plate in Augusta. He only hit .258 in 117 games and only sported an OPS of .660. While his plate patience numbers were fine, if not promising considering he was only 19-20 years old in 2009 (.333 OBP, 9.4 percent walk rate, 0.64 BB/K ratio), he really didn't show much ability to get extra base hits or produce runs. His slugging was only .327, his ISO was 0.70, and he had a runs above average based on wOBA of -2.6. That's not exactly the kind of improvement everyone expected from Adrianza after his callup with the Grizzlies.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Hopeful of Adrianza:
Giants fans should be hopeful because a lot of people are. Baseball America is, as is the McCovey Chronicles, not to mention MLB.com Giants beat writer Chris Haft. Why is that? Because Adrianza has a great glove and great speed. Adrianza had a 5.06 RF/G in 2008, which shows that he is capable of being a Gold Glove-Caliber shortstop. And his speed? You won't see it in his seven stolen bases (though he was only caught once), but his speed score of 5.4 is very solid, and shows the potential he has when he gets running.
Also, Adrianza has very solid plate patience for a guy his age. Granted, he's no Nick Johnson, but considering he's only 20 and he had a BB/K ratio of 0.64 in 2009 shows that he isn't too much of a free-swinger and has an idea what the strike zone looks like. If he can continue to harness and slightly improve these solid plate patience skills as he makes his way through the Giants' system, Adrianza will be a very solid commodity to a ballclub that is notoriously known for lack of strike zone recognition from their hitters (e.g Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina, etc.).
Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Adrianza:
Giants fans should have some skepticism about Adrianza because some people seriously doubt his ability as well. Seriously, SF Dugout.com has him rated as No. 50 in their Top 50 Giants prospects. That's a pretty big difference from where Baseball America, McCovey Chronicles and Haft have him ranked. Why do I think there's such a big gap in terms of the mindset on Adrianza? Well...for the most part, at this point in his career (like I said before, he's only 20, but still) he's all potential and really hasn't proven all that much on the field.
At the levels of pro ball he has played at extensively ( Dominican Summer League and Augusta), his stats are very underwhelming, especially when it comes to getting hits. He hasn't hit over .260 in places where he has played 15 games or more (Dominican Summer League, Arizona Rookie League, Augusta), and his OPS in stints where he played 15 games or more has topped out at .676 (2007 in the Dominican Summer League).
Furthermore, the two aspects of his game that are most intriguing (defense and baserunning) took major hits last season in Single-A. His RF/G went down to 4.13 (he had a 5.06 RF/G in 2008) and he committed 30 errors as well. As for his baserunning, he only stole seven bases in 117 games in 2009, a huge drop from his ballyhooed 2007 in the Dominican Summer League where he stole 23 bases in 66 games.
Nick Noonan, 2B (Highest level reached last year: Advanced Single-A).
2009 stats with San Jose (Advanced Single-A): 124 G, 459 AB, 530 PA, 119 H, 78 1B, 26 2B, 8 3B, 7 HR, 82 R, 64 RBI, 48 BB, 97 SO, 9 SB, .259 AVG., .330 OBP, .727 OPS.
How Noonan Struggled in 2009:
Other than perhaps Conor Gillaspie, nobody had a more disappointing 2009 in the minors than Noonan. His rookie season in 2007 showed flashes of promise, illustrated by his .313 batting average, .809 OPS and 18 stolen bases. For a while, Noonan was being compared to a young Chase Utley: a solid defensive infielder with some pop and skill on the basepaths.
However, after a slight regression in 2008 Augusta (where his OPS fell to .730 and his strikeout rate rose to 19.6 percent, though he did steal 29 bases), Noonan really hit the skids in 2009 in San Jose. His average fell down to .258 (down 55 points from his rookie season), his OPS fell to .727 (down 82 points from his rookie season) and his stolen base total, one of the sole category highlights of his 2008 campaign, fell from 29 to 9. Noonan was deemed somewhat of "tumbling" prospects by some experts after the 2009 season, which made many Giants fans wonder if he ever could live up to those Chase Utley comparisons he was bestowed with after his rookie season in 2007.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Hopeful of Noonan:
Noonan is still incredibly young (he'll be 21 in May, something Grant from McCovey Chronicles continues to emphasize) and he still has shown some extended flashes of brilliance in his three years of pro ball (something you can't really say out of a guy like Adrianza, who has shown "brief" flashes of brilliance). Also, while Noonan's strikeout rate went up two points (from 19.6 percent in 2008 to 21.1 percent in 2009), his walk rate did improve in 2009 (from 4.3 to 9.1 percent) as did his BB/K ratio (0.23 in 2008 to 0.49). If his BB/K ratios had stayed around the same or went down (ala Brandon Crawford) then I would be more worried. So, to look on the sunny side of things, Noonan is getting a better idea at the plate, even if it isn't exactly reflected in his batting average or OPS. And if you look at video of Noonan's swing, you can't help but feel he has a solid, balanced stroke and approach in the batter's box.
In addition, Noonan still remained stellar defensively at second base despite his drop offensively. Noonan's RF/G stayed around the same at 4.68, and he made less errors (16 in comparison to 18 in 2008) in more games (120 to 116 in 2008) and chances (577 to 572 in 2008). So, even though his ability at the plate and his ability to steal bases are in question, his ability in the field certainly isn't.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Noonan:
Sure, he's young, but still...one bad season is an "off season" (and Giants fans can live with those). Two bad seasons in a row, however, could be grounds for regression, and you could make that argument with Noonan. An 82 point drop off in OPS in a two year span is a red flag. A 20 base difference in stolen bases (despite having only two less plate appearances from 2008) is a red flag. A steadily increasing strikeout rate from 2007 to 2009 is a red flag. Going from 6.1 runs above average based on wOBA to -6.4 runs above average based on wOBA in one season is a red flag.
As you can see, there are so many red flags with Noonan that his career outlook almost looks like the Soviet Union (lots of red flags...duh!) Pre-Fall of the Berlin Wall. Therefore, Giants fans have every right to be skeptical. Then again, Giants fans have to remember that Noonan is still young (and I know it's tough to stomach because we saw guys like Pablo Sandoval come in and mash at the Major League level at 22 years old), and that is comforting because he still has a lot of time to develop his approach at the plate (something a guy like Crawford, for example, doesn't have the luxury of doing because he's 23 years old).
As far as the Utley comparisons, you have to take into consideration Utley's stats when he played in Advanced Single-A during his second season of professional ball. (Granted, Utley was three years older than Noonan when he broke into professional ball, so take that into consideration).
Utley's 2003 stats with Clearwater (Advanced Single-A): 122 G, 467 AB, 523 PA, 120 H, 25 2B, 16 HR, 65 R, 59 RBI, 19 SB, 37 BB, .257 AVG., .324 OBP, .746 OPS.
As you can see (unfortunately), those numbers don't bode well for Noonan in terms of being the "Next Chase Utley."
However, for all the success stories concerning Giants prospects, there were a few downers in 2009. Specifically, four of them were middle infielders (two who were first round draft picks): Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Ehire Adrianza, and Nick Noonan. All four guys were expected to make big leaps after promising 2008 campaigns, but for some reason, none of them really lived up to expectations in 2009.
Now, does that mean the sun has set on these four infield prospects? Not at all. The potential for Major League success as soon as 2010 is still there for some of them. That being said, I feel it is important to look at the four and examine which guys are due for a breakout in 2010, and what are some of the warning signs that may prevent one, a couple (or perhaps all four) of the players from being big-time contributors at the Major League level.
Emmanuel Burriss, 2B/SS (Highest level reached last year: MLB).
2009 stats with Giants: 61 G, 202 AB, 220 PA, 48 H, 42 1B, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 18 R, 13 RBI, 14 BB, 34 SO, 11 SB, .238 AVG., .292 OBP, .560 OPS
How Burriss Struggled in 2009:
Big expectations were put on Burriss, the Giants' First Round Pick in 2006, after a solid 2008 campaign with the Giants, and an even better Spring Training where he put up a .855 OPS in Spring Training prior to the 2009 season. With those credentials, and the second base spot open after Ray Durham's departure, Burriss was given the starting nod at second base with the hope that he would build on those two solid campaigns and become a viable candidate for the leadoff spot in the Giants lineup.
Well, Burriss never really lived up to the promise of 2008 or Spring Training, as he struggled to get on base (.292 OBP) and seemed to be overmatched at the plate. He posted the highest strikeout rate of his professional career with the Giants in 2009 (16.8 percent), and only hit six extra base hits all year (all doubles), which produced a putrid .267 slugging percentage and .560 OPS. Even though Burriss did provide some spark on the bases as expected (11 stolen bases in 2009), his defense didn't live up to billing. After sporting a 3.8 UZR in 2008 at second base, Burriss had a -3.7 UZR in 2009 at second base.
How bad was Burriss in 2009? In WAR values for the Giants, Burriss ranked last in WAR out of any San Francisco positional player at -0.8 (equivalent to $-3.8 million dollars, according to Fangraphs).
Why Giants Fans Should be Hopeful of Burriss:
Talent-wise, Burriss is a very interesting player. He has tremendous base-stealing ability (as evidenced by his 35 and 51 stolen bases in 2007 and 2008 in Salem-Keizer and Augusta), a quality that will be sorely needed in 2010 after the Giants lost their leading stolen base leader (Randy Winn) to free agency this off-season. The Giants really do not have a true leadoff hitter at the moment (Aaron Rowand is predicted to bat lead-off on Opening Day) and though Eugenio Velez and Andres Torres are solid baserunning options, they are much older ( 27 and 32, respectively) and it is debatable whether or not they will get many opportunities considering how crowded the outfield is. With Freddy Sanchez injured, and Edgar Renteria on thin ice, Burriss could have a chance to compete if somebody ahead of him falters and if he can get off to a fast start out of the gate in 2010 in the Minors or even Spring Training.
Offensively, Burriss does not draw a lot of walks (6.4 percent walk rate in 2009, 8.4 percent walk rate in 2008) but with the exception of last season, he does not strike out very much either. In 2008, he had a 0.96 BB/K ratio, and in 2009 with Fresno, he had a 0.75 BB/K ratio. While he could swing less outside of the strike zone (he swung at 28.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone), he has a very strong ability to make contact at the plate. In 2008, he had a contact rate of 90.1 percent and even in his sub-par 2009, he had a contact rate of 84.6 percent, fifth-best of Giants hitters with 20 or more plate appearances.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Burriss:
Speed and defense were supposed to be the key characteristics of Burriss' game. Last year, he only proved the former. His negative UZR at second base was disappointing, and his negative UZR at shortstop in 2008 proved that he may not be as versatile in the field as many Giants fans would like to think.
Furthermore, Burriss' absolute lack of power is a huge red flag. He has never posted a slugging percentage over .370 in his career, and has never sported an OPS over .750 either. Granted, Giants fans don't expect him to be Barry Bonds at the plate, but one would expect with his speed that he would be better in terms of legging out extra-base hits, especially triples. Sadly, that isn't the case. In his career at the Major League level, Burriss has only hit 14 extra-base hits (12 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run) in 494 plate appearances.
Brandon Crawford, 2B (Highest level reached last year: Double-A).
2009 stats with Connecticut (Double-A): 108 G, 392 AB, 423 PA, 101 H, 69 1B, 26 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 38 R, 31 RBI, 20 BB, 100 SO, 11 SB, .258 AVG., .294 OBP, .659 OPS.
How Crawford Struggled in 2009:
Crawford actually tore it up in 2009...in Single-A San Jose that is. In San Jose, Crawford hit .371 with a 1.045 OPS and also hit six home runs and 17 RBI in 25 games in the California League.
However, after getting promoted to Double-A Connecticut, Crawford ran into major problems at the plate.
Nearly every category of his dropped with the Defenders. His average went down to .258, his OPS went down to .659, he couldn't draw a walk to save his life (as evidenced by his 4.7 walk percentage, and .294 OBP), and he suddenly became a modern day recreation of Pedro Feliz circa 2001 when it came to swinging and missing (100 strikeouts in Connecticut, 25.5 percent strikeout rate).
To make things worse, he didn't add much power either in Double-A. After posting a .600 slugging and .229 ISO in San Jose in 2009, his slugging and ISO fell to .395 and .107 respectively. Additionally, he only hit four home runs in 423 plate appearances (he hit six home runs in 119 plate appearances in San Jose).
Why Giants Fans Should Be Hopeful of Crawford:
Crawford has always had raves for his glove and he still remains a solid defensive player. His RF/G was 4.58 in combined Single-A and Double-A play in 2009, so that should give some Giants fans hope considering Edgar Renteria's RF/G was 3.74 for the Giants in 2009. If anything, Crawford would be a solid upgrade over Renteria or even Juan Uribe (who had a 3.78 RF/G in 2009 at shortstop).
Granted, defense isn't everything. Brian Bocock was a good defender too. However, unlike Bocock, Crawford does have an ability to hit. His combined stats in Single-A and Double-A last year were still decent (.282 average, .742 OPS) and he had a solid campaign in Arizona Fall League this year (as evidenced by a .312 average and .850 OPS). If Crawford can get back to Single-A form somewhat, or hover around those combined-level stats from 2009 in 2010, it isn't impossible to think that he could be competing for the starting shortstop job in 2011 once Edgar Renteria's contract is up.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Crawford:
He is 23-years-old, and played three years of college baseball at UCLA. So, he's not exactly young considering where he's at in the minor league system, and he doesn't have a whole lot of time to develop in comparison to guys out of high school (such as Nick Noonan). Therefore, Crawford ceiling may not be very high, and Giants fans could seem him reach it in a couple of years considering his college experience.
That being said, despite his three years of college ball, and two years of professional ball, Crawford has serious issues at the plate. At four levels of play (rookie, short-season Single-A, Advanced Single-A, and Double-A), Crawford's BB/K ratios haven't been great. He had 0.00 BB/K ratio in Arizona and Salem Keizer (because he drew no walks, but then again, it was only a five game sample) and a 0.20 BB/K ratio with the Defenders. Even in his solid outing in San Jose, he BB/K ratio wasn't good at 0.31 (a 30.5 percent strikeout rate probably contributed to such a high ratio).
Ehire Adrianza, SS (Highest level reached last year: Single-A).
2009 Stats with Augusta (Single-A): 117 G, 388 AB, 448 PA, 100 H, 80 1B, 15 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 54 R, 46 RBI, 42 BB, 66 SO, 7 SB, .258 AVG., .333 OBP, .660 OPS.
How Adrianza Struggled in 2009:
Adrianza played sparingly in 2008, but he showed some promise in Rookie League, Short-Season Single-A, and even Triple-A stints. He performed okay in his longest stint of of the year in Arizona Rookie league, hitting .255 with a .349 OBP and .731 OPS, but his two-game cup of coffee in Fresno proved to be the most impressive, as he went 3-for-8 with a double and scored two runs.
Despite the promise from the Fresno games, Adrianza didn't really make a jump at the plate in Augusta. He only hit .258 in 117 games and only sported an OPS of .660. While his plate patience numbers were fine, if not promising considering he was only 19-20 years old in 2009 (.333 OBP, 9.4 percent walk rate, 0.64 BB/K ratio), he really didn't show much ability to get extra base hits or produce runs. His slugging was only .327, his ISO was 0.70, and he had a runs above average based on wOBA of -2.6. That's not exactly the kind of improvement everyone expected from Adrianza after his callup with the Grizzlies.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Hopeful of Adrianza:
Giants fans should be hopeful because a lot of people are. Baseball America is, as is the McCovey Chronicles, not to mention MLB.com Giants beat writer Chris Haft. Why is that? Because Adrianza has a great glove and great speed. Adrianza had a 5.06 RF/G in 2008, which shows that he is capable of being a Gold Glove-Caliber shortstop. And his speed? You won't see it in his seven stolen bases (though he was only caught once), but his speed score of 5.4 is very solid, and shows the potential he has when he gets running.
Also, Adrianza has very solid plate patience for a guy his age. Granted, he's no Nick Johnson, but considering he's only 20 and he had a BB/K ratio of 0.64 in 2009 shows that he isn't too much of a free-swinger and has an idea what the strike zone looks like. If he can continue to harness and slightly improve these solid plate patience skills as he makes his way through the Giants' system, Adrianza will be a very solid commodity to a ballclub that is notoriously known for lack of strike zone recognition from their hitters (e.g Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina, etc.).
Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Adrianza:
Giants fans should have some skepticism about Adrianza because some people seriously doubt his ability as well. Seriously, SF Dugout.com has him rated as No. 50 in their Top 50 Giants prospects. That's a pretty big difference from where Baseball America, McCovey Chronicles and Haft have him ranked. Why do I think there's such a big gap in terms of the mindset on Adrianza? Well...for the most part, at this point in his career (like I said before, he's only 20, but still) he's all potential and really hasn't proven all that much on the field.
At the levels of pro ball he has played at extensively ( Dominican Summer League and Augusta), his stats are very underwhelming, especially when it comes to getting hits. He hasn't hit over .260 in places where he has played 15 games or more (Dominican Summer League, Arizona Rookie League, Augusta), and his OPS in stints where he played 15 games or more has topped out at .676 (2007 in the Dominican Summer League).
Furthermore, the two aspects of his game that are most intriguing (defense and baserunning) took major hits last season in Single-A. His RF/G went down to 4.13 (he had a 5.06 RF/G in 2008) and he committed 30 errors as well. As for his baserunning, he only stole seven bases in 117 games in 2009, a huge drop from his ballyhooed 2007 in the Dominican Summer League where he stole 23 bases in 66 games.
Nick Noonan, 2B (Highest level reached last year: Advanced Single-A).
2009 stats with San Jose (Advanced Single-A): 124 G, 459 AB, 530 PA, 119 H, 78 1B, 26 2B, 8 3B, 7 HR, 82 R, 64 RBI, 48 BB, 97 SO, 9 SB, .259 AVG., .330 OBP, .727 OPS.
How Noonan Struggled in 2009:
Other than perhaps Conor Gillaspie, nobody had a more disappointing 2009 in the minors than Noonan. His rookie season in 2007 showed flashes of promise, illustrated by his .313 batting average, .809 OPS and 18 stolen bases. For a while, Noonan was being compared to a young Chase Utley: a solid defensive infielder with some pop and skill on the basepaths.
However, after a slight regression in 2008 Augusta (where his OPS fell to .730 and his strikeout rate rose to 19.6 percent, though he did steal 29 bases), Noonan really hit the skids in 2009 in San Jose. His average fell down to .258 (down 55 points from his rookie season), his OPS fell to .727 (down 82 points from his rookie season) and his stolen base total, one of the sole category highlights of his 2008 campaign, fell from 29 to 9. Noonan was deemed somewhat of "tumbling" prospects by some experts after the 2009 season, which made many Giants fans wonder if he ever could live up to those Chase Utley comparisons he was bestowed with after his rookie season in 2007.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Hopeful of Noonan:
Noonan is still incredibly young (he'll be 21 in May, something Grant from McCovey Chronicles continues to emphasize) and he still has shown some extended flashes of brilliance in his three years of pro ball (something you can't really say out of a guy like Adrianza, who has shown "brief" flashes of brilliance). Also, while Noonan's strikeout rate went up two points (from 19.6 percent in 2008 to 21.1 percent in 2009), his walk rate did improve in 2009 (from 4.3 to 9.1 percent) as did his BB/K ratio (0.23 in 2008 to 0.49). If his BB/K ratios had stayed around the same or went down (ala Brandon Crawford) then I would be more worried. So, to look on the sunny side of things, Noonan is getting a better idea at the plate, even if it isn't exactly reflected in his batting average or OPS. And if you look at video of Noonan's swing, you can't help but feel he has a solid, balanced stroke and approach in the batter's box.
In addition, Noonan still remained stellar defensively at second base despite his drop offensively. Noonan's RF/G stayed around the same at 4.68, and he made less errors (16 in comparison to 18 in 2008) in more games (120 to 116 in 2008) and chances (577 to 572 in 2008). So, even though his ability at the plate and his ability to steal bases are in question, his ability in the field certainly isn't.
Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Noonan:
Sure, he's young, but still...one bad season is an "off season" (and Giants fans can live with those). Two bad seasons in a row, however, could be grounds for regression, and you could make that argument with Noonan. An 82 point drop off in OPS in a two year span is a red flag. A 20 base difference in stolen bases (despite having only two less plate appearances from 2008) is a red flag. A steadily increasing strikeout rate from 2007 to 2009 is a red flag. Going from 6.1 runs above average based on wOBA to -6.4 runs above average based on wOBA in one season is a red flag.
As you can see, there are so many red flags with Noonan that his career outlook almost looks like the Soviet Union (lots of red flags...duh!) Pre-Fall of the Berlin Wall. Therefore, Giants fans have every right to be skeptical. Then again, Giants fans have to remember that Noonan is still young (and I know it's tough to stomach because we saw guys like Pablo Sandoval come in and mash at the Major League level at 22 years old), and that is comforting because he still has a lot of time to develop his approach at the plate (something a guy like Crawford, for example, doesn't have the luxury of doing because he's 23 years old).
As far as the Utley comparisons, you have to take into consideration Utley's stats when he played in Advanced Single-A during his second season of professional ball. (Granted, Utley was three years older than Noonan when he broke into professional ball, so take that into consideration).
Utley's 2003 stats with Clearwater (Advanced Single-A): 122 G, 467 AB, 523 PA, 120 H, 25 2B, 16 HR, 65 R, 59 RBI, 19 SB, 37 BB, .257 AVG., .324 OBP, .746 OPS.
As you can see (unfortunately), those numbers don't bode well for Noonan in terms of being the "Next Chase Utley."
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