OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 26, Henry Sosa, RHP

The ceiling on Henry Sosa is one that has declined sharply in a short period of time. Once considered a sleeper prospect in 2007 when he made the All-Star Futures game, Sosa has had a hard time finding consistent success in his journey through the Giants system. While he may still have a future as a middle-reliever of some kind (and that isn't necessarily a bad thing to have), it's safe to say that Sosa probably won't live up to the hype he garnered back in 2006 and 2007, when he burst onto the scene in the Arizona Rookie League, SALLY and California League as a 20 and 21-year-old.

When Sosa broke into the minor leagues at 20 years old, Sosa was known for a lively fastball and for striking guys out in bunches (his K/9 was 11.4 his rookie year in the AZL). When he advanced to the SALLY and California League in 2007, he had some issues with his control, as he posted high walk numbers (61 walks in a 125.2 IP between Augusta and San Jose).  That being said, he still maintained good strikeout numbers (11.0 K/9 in 63.2 IP in San Jose; 8.9 K/9 in 62.0 IP), so there wasn't too much panic about Sosa's control, especially considering he was only 20 years old

2008 was supposed to be a big transition year for Sosa (especially considering the hype he garnered by making the Futures game). Here is what Obsessive Giants Compulsive said about Sosa before Spring Training that season:

"...Our rotation could get very crowded with top of the rotation throwers in a couple of years. We have Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, and Correia currently plus Sanchez and Misch in the wings, but Sosa, Bumgarner, and Alderson could be ready in the 2010-2011 timeframe to come up and start in the majors, though I would say that there is an outside chance that both Sosa and Alderson could make the majors in 2009 - as Sabean said Alderson could on draft day - if the Giants advance them aggressively, much like they did with Sanchez, bringing them up to relieve initially..."

Unfortunately, Sosa didn't transition to the Majors as fast as Giants fans would have hoped as injury issues kept him in the lower minors for another season (he had surgery to repair a torn tendon in his left knee). After pitching 125.2 IP in 2007, Sosa only pitched 57.2 IP in 2008 and didn't show much improvement in his second go-around in the California League. His ERA was 4.31 and he allowed 62 hits and 18 walks in 56.1 IP in San Jose. While he did strike out 58 batters, his 9.3 K/9 was a 1.7 point decline from the previous season.

The health problems and regression from 2007 to 2008 probably should have been a red flag and a sign of things to come. However, the real warning signs came during his 2009 season in Double-A Connecticut. Despite posting good "traditional" numbers to start out the year (6-0, 2.36 ERA), Sosa was shut down after 14 appearances and 72.1 IP due to "arm fatigue" issues. While the arm issues were an obvious scare, what was even more concerning was his 5.5 percent strikeout rate in the Eastern League, an almost four percent decrease from 2008 and a five and a half point decrease from 2007.

Sosa bounced around between being a starter and reliever last season in Fresno, but eventually found himself regulated more to the bullpen over the course of the year. Despite his role-change, the numbers didn't change much in the Pacific Coast League: his K/9 rate only improved to 6.5 and his K/BB ratio was 1.51, the lowest ratio of his minor league career (until this year where it is 1.19, but it is only the start of the season so I won't rush to judgment too quickly).

In many ways, Sosa's career path almost resembles that of Merkin Valdez. Granted, Valdez was a higher-rated prospect than Sosa. Valdez ranked No. 40 and No. 58 according to Baseball America in 2004 and 2005. Sosa never cracked any of Baseball America's Top-100 lists. (Though in retrospect, the Giants system was so shallow that Valdez was really just the best of a meager bunch, and hence, his ranking was inflated in response. The Giants system was a lot better when Sosa arrived, and hence, he went under the radar with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson commanding all the attention.)

If you look past the "rankings" though, Sosa and Valdez have had very close career paths. Valdez broke in as a raw pitcher with serious gas, but injury issues (he missed the entire 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery) and never developing as a "pitcher" (e.g. just being a "thrower" who relies on his fastball) prevented him from capitalizing on the early hype he garnered in the minors. The same could almost be said of Sosa. He had a great arm, but he's been plagued by injuries, and his command has been questionable since his knee surgery.

If you don't buy the Valdez-Sosa comparison, check out their Minor League numbers (Sosa and Valdez) and you'll see that they have had eerily similar statistics (lower K/BB ratios and lower K/9 numbers the higher they climbed in the minors). Does that mean Sosa is the second coming of Valdez? Not exactly, but I don't see Sosa faring much better than Valdez considering where he's at and how he's pitched lately, especially this year with the Grizzlies (8.59 ERA, 2.52 WHIP in 14.2 IP).

Of course, Valdez did pitch 68.1 IP in the Majors over four seasons and 69 games. If the Giants can get that out of Sosa, he may still prove to be valuable to this Giants organization. Bullpen depth is never a bad thing to have (especially considering how inconsistent middle relievers can be), and it's always nice to bolster that depth as cheaply as possible and within the system (Sosa satisfies both factors).

Under the Radar? Three Giants Prospects To Pay Attention to in 2010

Madison Bumgarner. Buster Posey. Thomas Neal. Zach Wheeler. Dan Runzler. Waldis Joaquin.

When it comes to rookies/prospects currently on the forty-man roster breaking out next season (be it at the Major League or Minor League level), those six are on every Giants fan and baseball expert's list.

However, they shouldn't be the only ones people should be looking forward to this Spring.

Conor Gillaspie, Darren Ford and Henry Sosa are three guys that could turn some heads in 2010 in the Minors.

At this moment, the three guys are still at least a year or two away from contributing at the Major League level. That being said, they are talented players that should be paid attention to should injury or mediocrity strike the current veterans on the Giants' 40-man roster. Are there red flags with Gillaspie, Ford and Sosa? Of course, but if you look at their profiles a little closer, they all have potential of being real breakout stars for the Giants in 2011 or beyond.

Here are the down-lows on the three potential "breakout" prospects:

Conor Gillaspie
2009 statistics in San Jose: 126 (G), 469 (AB), 530 (PA), 134 (H), 97 (1B), 31 (2B), 2 (3B), 4 (HR), 62 (R), 67 (RBI), 55 (BB), 2 (IBB), 68 (SO), 3 (HBP), 6 (GDP), 2 (SB), 3 (CS), .286 (AVG), .364 (OBP), .386 (OPS), .750 (OPS).

Last season, the Giants put Gillaspie on the 40-man roster even though he had only 32 games of professional experience prior to the 2009 season (he had played eight games with the Giants in 2008 and 24 games between rookie and short-season Single-A). At the time, it was deemed a questionable decision. Gillaspie certainly wasn't ready to contribute to the Major Leagues last year, and it showed  in San Jose.

However, though Gillaspie didn't wow everyone in 2009 like many thought he would when he was the Giants' second pick of the 2008 MLB Draft (behind Buster Posey), he is capable of breaking out in Double-A or even Triple-A in 2010.

Why such optimistic thoughts about a guy deemed a "tumbler" by commenters on Fangraphs? Gillaspie's plate patience numbers are very promising.

Gillaspie posted a 10.4 percent walk rate in 2009 in San Jose and also sported a 0.81 BB/K ratio. Why is that such a big deal? Well, if you look at the Giants roster last year, only two guys sported BB/K ratios above 0.70 (Kevin Frandsen, who had a 0.75 ratio, and Ryan Garko, who had a 0.90).

Furthermore, Gillaspie's strikeout rate wasn't terrible at 14.5 percent last season, and it certainly was an improvement from the 18.3 percent strikeout rate he sported in Salem-Kaizer in 2008.

Now, there are still some red flags with Gillaspie's game. He doesn't hit for ANY power it seems (as evidenced by a .386 slugging and .100 ISO) and his defense at third base is very questionable. Also, he isn't exactly a burner on the basepaths either, so he doesn't maximize his ability to get on base.

That being said, if you watch Gillaspie's swing during this Minor League Spring Training game in 2009, he does have a very good looking swing. You can tell that he will have trouble getting a lot of pop behind balls (it seems very short, compact), but it isn't unfathomable to think that his batting style could mirror a Bill Mueller-esque player (whom many experts have compared him to since he was drafted). That isn't exactly a bad thing, especially considering Mueller had a career batting average of .291 and OBP of .373.

Will Gillaspie reach those heights? Maybe, maybe not. At the very least though, I think Gillaspie could put up very similar batting numbers to a guy like Nate Schierholtz (I think their swings are very similar), only with less power, but more plate patience.

Gillaspie will probably never be high ceiling guy. He just doesn't have the power to do so. At the very least though, he is capable of being a solid everyday player in the future, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. If his career path was personified in a woman, it would probably not be as hot as Jessica Alba, and look more like Julia Stiles. It won't be smoking or jaw-dropping, but you won't be able to really complain with the the overall profile in the end.


Darren Ford
2009 statistics with San Jose: 101 (G), 441 (PA), 380 (AB), 81 (R), 114 (H), 17 (2B), 9 (3B), 9 (HR), 50 (RBI), 35 (SB), 12 (CS), 49 (BB), 97 (SO), .300 (AVG), .386 (OBP), .463 (SLG), .849 (OPS).

Ford was one of the centerpieces when the Giants traded Ray Durham to Milwaukee in 2008. So far, there is a lot to like about Ford. He's fast and can steal a base (he stole 69 in Single-A in 2006 and 67 in two levels of Single-A in 2007 and 62 in two levels of Single-A in 2008). Granted, his stolen base numbers went down to 35 in 2009, but still, he shows a great knack on the basepaths, something that is greatly needed on a Giants roster that just lost their leading stolen base man (Randy Winn).

However, there is one major question mark with Ford: he has spent the last three years in Single-A. That is never a good sign, especially when the guy is 24-years-old and was drafted out of high school.

Still, Ford offers a lot of potential despite a slow start breaking into professional ball. His batting approach has greatly improved since his first year in rookie ball in 2005. While not traditionally a power-hitting player, his OPS was the second-highest of his career in San Jose in 2009 (he posted a .902 OPS in West Virginia in 2007). Additionally, Ford has maintained an ability to get on base well. Since 2005, he has only had one season where his OPS was below .350 (in 2008, where in two levels of play it was .329).

If anything, if Rajai Davis and Fred Lewis were able to make a baby ("Junior"-style), the player would look a lot like Ford. He has the base-stealing ability of Davis, but has the run-scoring potential of Lewis as evidenced by Ford's OBP numbers. Granted, Ford still has to prove this at higher levels in the Minors. Single-A in all reality is just Single-A.

Nonetheless, if Ford capitalizes on the success he had in San Jose in Double-A or even Triple-A, then it wouldn't be surprising to see Ford get a call-up in August or September.

Henry Sosa:
2009 statistics with Connecticut: 6-0 (W-L), 2.36 (ERA), 14 (G), 14 (GS), 72.1 (IP), 298 (BF), 61 (H), 22 (R), 19 (ER), 4 (HR), 25 (BB), 44 (SO).

Sosa is an interesting case because his health is such an issue. He's coming off an arm injury in 2008, and had his season shortened in 2009 because of arm fatigue (e.g. his arm wasn't healthy after surgery in 2008).

So, Sosa's stats are hard to gauge because it's obvious it's not the Sosa that pitched in the Futures Game at Yankee Stadium in 2008. His 5.47 strikeout rate and 1.76 BB/K ratio in Double-A last season aren't exactly numbers of a player dubbed one of the most underrated prospects in baseball by Baseball Intellect in 2008.

Then again, maybe the Sosa we saw last year should be one Giants fans should be expecting in the future. After all, arm injuries are incredibly unpredictable things, and we have seen them derail promising pitchers' career (Jesse Foppert comes to mind).

Yet, let's just say Sosa is close to be his 2008 self pre-injury. Let's just say he's recovered fully after shutting it down early in 2009. What can Giants fans expect from Sosa in 2010?

In my mind, with those factors, a lot.

Sosa not only has a good arm, but he looks to have good makeup as well. Unlike some fireballers who come into the league only able to last a few innings, Sosa is a legitimate starting pitcher with gas. He posted incredible WHIP numbers at his first two levels of play (0.99 in rookie ball and 0.89 in Single-A) and even last year, despite battling arm fatigue, his WHIP was very respectable at 1.19.

And, Sosa has also improved gradually with his command and control. Until his arm injury, Sosa was able to strike guys out with great proficiency (he had 11.41, 8.85, 11.03 and 9.27 strikeout rates in various levels from rookie to advanced Single-A from 2006 to 2007), but he still had problems walking guys.

In his first two years of professional ball, he had mediocre walk rate numbers at 3.34 and 3.63 in 2006 rookie level, 2007 Single-A respectively. Then his walk rate skyrocketed in San Jose in 2007 to 5.09, which produced a BB/K ratio of 2.17.

Since 2008, he started to clean up his command issues a little bit. His walk rate was only 2.88, and he had a 3.22 K/BB ratio in 2008. And, though his BB/K ratio was the lowest of his professional career in 2009, his walk rates weren't the problem. In 2009, he posted a 3.11 walk rate, the second-lowest of his career.

With the Giants rotation in solid shape for 2009, Sosa most likely will not be needed unless the most drastic of circumstances happen (think The Simpsons when all of Montgomery Burns' free agents for his company softball team had something happen to them prior to the championship game). However, Sosa will be very interesting to watch in the minors this season.

If he shows that his arm problems are a thing of the past this Spring, Sosa will be a very enticing pitching option for the Giants in late-2010 or 2011.