Can Denny Bautista and Santiago Casilla Invigorate the Giants Bullpen?

After coming back and beating the Nationals today 5-4, the Giants remained over .500 for the season at 24-22. While the record is still promising, the Giants have struggled in the month of May, alarming considering many of the teams in the NL West who flopped in April are starting to turn it around this month (e.g. Colorado, Los Angeles).


Now, the Giants have offensive problems. No doubt about it. Furthermore, there are concerns with Tim Lincecum as well, especially after his latest six hit, six run, five walk performance in 4.2 IP on Wednesday against the Nationals.


Yet one of the big concerns that has Giants fans up in arms is this: can the bullpen hold up and keep the Giants competitive?


The bullpen can mean the difference between a rebuilding season and a playoff run, and the Giants have experienced this first-hand. In 2008, during their 72-90 season, the Giants bullpen was one of the worst in baseball, sporting a 4.45 ERA (24th in the Majors). In 2009, when the Giants went 88-74 and just missed out on the NL Wild Card, the bullpen posted an ERA of 3.49, second-best in baseball (behind only the Dodgers, who had a bullpen ERA of 3.14).


How are the Giants relievers doing this season? Well, the results have been mixed. Brian Wilson is off to a solid start having converted 12 out of his first 13 saves, and sporting an ERA of 2.45. Furthermore, the Giants have gotten solid performances out of journeyman and former Dodger (God I hate saying that) Guillermo Mota, who has appeared in 18 games this season and holds an ERA of 1.13 and a WHIP of 0.94.


However, after ranking second last year in the Majors, the Giants bullpen currently ranks 10th in the league with a 3.68 team ERA. Furthermore, many Giants relievers who were expected to have an impact this year haven't necessarily gotten off to the best of starts.


Brandon Medders, who is currently on the disabled list, has been a train wreck, as evidenced by his 7.20 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in 14 appearances (granted, his 5.83 FIP suggests that he isn't as bad as his ERA says, but nonetheless, a 5.83 FIP isn't necessarily a sterling number either).

Fireballer Dan Runzler, who burst on the scene in September last year hasn't been much better. While Runzler's strikeout numbers continue to impress (20 strikeouts in 18 IP), his 1.54 BB/K ratio and 83.7 percent contact rate suggests that Runzler may have some command issues that he may need to sort out. Much like Medders, Runzler's FIP (3.77) suggests that he's better than his ERA (5.00), and he does induce a lot of groundballs (1.75 GB/FB ratio). However, considering Runzler is a two pitch pitcher (he throws his fastball 73.8 percent of the time and his slider 25.5 percent of the time) and his velocity has dropped (the average velocity on his fastball has dropped from 94.7 MPH in 2009 to 93.6 MPH this year), Runzler may be regulated to middle relief or mop up duty in the Giants bullpen and may see some time in Fresno to boot.


So, with Medders and Runzler struggling, Sergio Romo going through his usual fits of inconsistency (Romo has a solid BB/K ratio at 3.80 and WHIP at 0.89, but his FIP is unusually high at 4.04 as his HR/FB ratio at 9.4 percent), and with Jeremey Affeldt struggling with his control (5.19 BB/9; 1.40 BB/K ratio), is there anybody in the Giants bullpen of worth other than Mota and Wilson?


There are two candidates who could spark the Giants bullpen:


Denny Bautista and Santiago Casilla.


Now, Bautista and Casilla aren't exactly young and they don't necessarily have track records of success. Both Bautista and Casilla are turning 30 this season and both relievers struggled mightily with their respective teams (Bautista the Pirates; Casilla the A's) last season.


However, Bautista and Casilla throw serious heat and can strike guys out. This year, Bautista is averaging 95.3 MPH on his fastball. Casilla has been even better, averaging 96.7 MPH on his fastball.


If you don't believe me on Casilla, check out his velocity charts from today's game.

That is some serious gas, and can explain why Casilla has six strikeouts in 2.2 IP in 2010.


Bautista has been solid as well in terms of striking guys out. In 7.1 IP, Bautista has 11 strikeouts. Furthermore, he is sporting a contact rate of 74 percent and a swinging strike percentage of 10.3 percent (the league average swinging strike percentage is 8.3 percent).


That being said, it is not as if Bautista and Casilla are perfect. Both have issues with their control. Bautista has a career 5.12 BB/9 and 1.31 BB/K ratio, which isn't exactly comforting. Casilla also has suffered with the same problems, as evidenced by his career 4.49 BB/9 and 1.77 BB/K ratio.


Bautista has suffered in terms of finding the strike zone at times in 2010. This year, Bautista has walked eight batters in 7.1 IP and spots a WHIP of 1.91. Casilla has been solid with only one walk and a WHIP of 0.36. Despite these sterling numbers, Giants fans have to take it with a grain of salt, mainly because it is such a small sample (case in point, his WHIP was 1.78 last year and his BB/K ratio was 1.40 with the Oakland A's).


Are Bautista and Casilla saviors to this Giants bullpen? Probably not. However, both guys throw serious heat and can strike guys out, which is what you want from relievers in your bullpen. With Affeldt's health and effectiveness in question, and Medders' 2009 looking like a fluke, both Bautista and Casilla will be greatly needed to have breakout seasons in 2010.

At this point, I think it's totally possible for both Dominican-born pitchers.

Know the Giants' Non-Roster Invitees: The "Veterans"

In lieu of Byun-Hyun Kim and Horacio Ramirez being signed by the Giants to Minor League contracts yesterday, I figured it would be interesting to analyze the Giants' players who are coming to Spring Training, but aren't "currently" on the active 40-man roster. First, I will look at "veterans" (e.g. guys looking for second and third chances) and then "prospects" (e.g. players who will be playing Spring Training games, but may be a year away from playing in a Giants uniform).

In terms of non-roster "veterans", in the past couple of years, Sabean has made a few of these signings pay off. Two years ago, they got surprise contribution from Jose Castillo and Keiichi Yabu, who reported to Arizona as non-roster invitees. Last year, they got GREAT production from Juan Uribe and Justin Miller, who both were signed to Minor League deals before Spring Training after no team deemed them worthy of a Major League contract the whole off-season.

So, who could be this year's Miller Or Uribe? Here are some candidates:

Byung-Hyun Kim:
Kim has been out of Major League Baseball since 2007, and has been in Korea trying to regroup for a comeback. Kim burst onto the scene with Diamondbacks in 2001, where he saved 19 games for the World Series-champion Arizona Diamondbacks. However, during the 2001 World Series, Kim struggled immensely, as he blew two saves to the Yankees and sported a 13.50 ERA and 2.10 WHIP during the Fall Classic.

Kim had a bit of a comeback in 2002, where he saved 36 games. But like Shannen Doherty coming back to an Aaron Spelling show like she did in "Charmed", Kim fell off the wagon again in the playoffs for a second-straight series. Against the Cardinals in Game 3 of the NLDS, Kim allowed two runs on two hits and three walks in his only appearance of the 2002 playoffs.

After that postseason flameout, Kim has bounced around between Boston (no success), Colorado (some success), Arizona again (if you consider a 23.62 ERA and a 4.875 WHIP success) and Florida (not terrible, but not great) trying to be a Major League starting pitcher instead of a reliever. Kim never really found a niche as a starter, and it's assumed that if he makes the Giants roster, it will be as a reliever.

Kim isn't exactly young (he's 31), and his layoff from Major League Baseball for two years makes one wonder if he really has what it takes to make a comeback. While Kim does have a deceptive delivery, his lack of firepower behind his fastball (he averaged 88.3 MPH on his fastball in 2007) and his lackluster K/BB ratios during the last couple of years of his career (he had a 1.57 ratio in 2007) certainly doesn't bode well for Giants fans who think that they will be the Kim who was retiring Giants hitters in 2001 and 2002.

At least though his prospects may be better than Chien Ming Wang's (but he doesn't have as great a commercial though as Wang).

Horacio Ramirez:
Ramirez has never really been a great Major League pitcher. In fact, I wonder if he ever really was a good one to be honest. He had a decent season in 2002, his rookie year, where he won 12 games and sported a 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. His season in 2004 was passable as well, for he won 11 games and had a 1.39 WHIP again.

However, Ramirez just fits the prototype of the pitcher who doesn't have great stuff, but has had a long career in the Major Leagues because he got lucky for a couple of years. In his "career" seasons in 2003 and 2005, Ramirez had K/BB ratios of 1.39 and 1.19 respectively. Furthermore, his FIP numbers were also high at 4.72 and 5.24, in 2003 and 2005, respectively.

The bottom line? Ramirez got awfully lucky a couple of years as a pitcher, and hitters (as well as general managers and managers) have seen through his okay Win-Loss numbers. Ramirez most likely will find a role like Ramon Ortiz had last year: he'll be in Triple-A, and may post good numbers with the Grizzlies, but won't see the MLB level in 2010.

Santiago Casilla:
Casilla in 2007 was a very good relief pitcher for the Oakland A's. He posted good strikeout numbers (9.24 K/9 rate) and a solid WHIP (1.30). Many thought that Casilla was the kind of guy who could have been a major cog in the A's bullpen for years to come.

However, after lackluster 2008 and 2009 season, Casilla finds himself across the Bay in San Francisco, just trying to make a MLB team.

As I mentioned in a Fall/Winter League Winners post, Casilla made some progress by having a solid season in the Domincan Winter League. However, in order to make the Giants roster by Opening Day, Casilla needs to continue to progress and have a strong showing in Spring Training. With a bullpen chock full of arms as it is, he won't be given much slack in Cactus League play.

Tony Pena, Jr.:
Pena is an interesting case mainly because he broke into the league as a shortstop, failed miserably, and now is trying to revive his career as a pitcher. Pena has only pitched in 10 games in his career (only one of them was at the Major League level), so he is indeed a MAJOR work-in-progress. To think that he will be a contributor to the bullpen in 2010 might be a stretch.

However, Pena does offer some upside: he has put up decent strikeout numbers over his 10 games as a pitcher. Last season, in 14.1 IP with the Royals' Single-A organization, Pena had an 8.79 K/9 ratio and a 0.91 WHIP. Granted, he stills struggles with control (he had a 3.14 BB/9 rate last year) and he has benefited from good defense and luck so far in his pitching career (his FIP in Single-A was 3.41 and he had a BABIP of .209). That being said, Pena is a very interesting player to watch for the Giants come Spring Training. If he shows some improvement, and builds on his solid (though not great) Winter League season in the DWL, Pena could be a guy pitching for the Giants in the future.

(Though that future will most likely be 2011 at the earliest.)

Denny Bautista:
Bautista is an interesting case, plain and simple. He has good velocity on his fastball (he averaged 94.1 MPH on his fastball last year with the Pirates), but he doesn't, historically, have good strikeout numbers. He only averaged a K/9 rate over six twice in his six seasons at the Major League level: in 2007 (where he had a 8.31 strikeout rate with the Rockies) and last year with the Pirates (where he had a career-high 9.88 strikeout rate).

That being said, despite his recent strikeout success, Bautista suffers from the same problem almost all hard-throwing relievers suffer from: control. Bautista had a 4.61 BB/9 rate and a 2.14 K/BB ratio in 2009, and those numbers for him were his best outputs in those categories at the Major League level.

There may be a lot to like about Bautista, and he may be on the upswing of his career in terms of finally getting it together as a pitcher. However, Bautista seems to be a Merkin Valdez 2.0, only older and without the funny first name. (Hint: Google Merkin.)

Eric Hacker:
Not much has been expected out of Hacker over his baseball-playing career. He was a 23rd round pick in 2002, and was drafted by the New York Yankees, which is the equivalent of Baseball Purgatory for any prospect because of how active the Yankees are in terms of singing free agents every year.

That being said, despite not having great stuff (his fastball averages 90.1 MPH), Hacker did show some promise after being traded to Pittsburgh last year. Hacker was named the International League Player of the Week (of the week ending August 9) and pitched a few games for the Pirates, (even though his stats during those three games were atrocious; he had a 6.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP).

Is Hacker a longshot to make the Giants active roster? Yeah, (Jennifer Love Hewitt has a better chance of winning an Academy Award in the next two years in my opinion). However, Hacker, who seems to be a career Quad-A player (Triple-A guy who can't make it to the next level, ala Todd Linden), is an interesting player to watch mainly because he has drudged in a lousy farm system (the Yankees) for so long. So, perhaps a change of scenery could turn it around for him in 2010 (though he's going to need a lot of "turning around" to be an MLB pitcher).

Steve Holm/Osiris Matos:
What? Steve Holm's not on the active roster? You're continuing to harp on Matos? What gives? They were on that roster last year! Of course they got a shot! (This is other fans saying this and not me by the way.)

Well, Matos and Holm fell so out of favor with the Giants' organization last year that they were cut loose by the Giants at some point last season. And, to make matters worse, they were so unwanted by other teams around the league that they are back with the Giants, only this time fighting to make a roster spot.

What can I say about the two? Holm's a decent defensive catcher and had an okay year at the plate in 29 games 2008. That being said, with Buster Posey on the way, Bengie Molina keeping the seat warm for Posey (supposedly) and Eli Whiteside providing "intangibles" to the pitching staff (though I don't really know what they are...I guess he has a better "catching no-hitters" ratio than Molina or Posey), Holm just seems like the odd man out and most likely will be in a different organization by the end of Spring Training.

A .242 average, .297 OBP and a .691 OPS 2009 in FRESNO will do that to you I guess.

As for Matos, well, I think he looks good when he warms up. Other than that, I just can't support him. He had decent numbers in 2009 in Fresno (1.27 WHIP, 7.95 K/9 rate) and on paper, his ERA makes him look a lot worse in 2009 than he probably was (he had a decent K/9 rate at 7.50, and he had a K/BB ratio of 5.00). However Matos just seems to give up too many runs (career 5.74 ERA at the MLB level) every game he pitches in.

I think Matos has a better chance than Holm in terms of making the team at this point, but with a lot of strong young arms like Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin and Dan Runzler most likely going to be in the bullpen in 2010, Matos just seems expendable at this point.

Around the "Candlestick": Simmons Lists Giants, Top 50 Prospects, Panda in Sharks Jersey, Bautista Piece, Angel Villalona!

All right. Bored, and just been browsing around the net. So, I decided to shoot up some links of things I found on the net concerning Giants baseball. Some are creative; some are not. Give me a break. I can't focus with the Zags losing to the freaking Santa Clara Broncos. (Update: they won...thank you Kerry Keating for being the worst coach in the history of the WCC!)

Giants Are N0. 6 On Bill Simmons' Most Tortured Franchise List

Just saw this one this morning. Finally, Giants fans get some much due respect for being a tortured organization. I mean, we heard Red Sox fans moan for 86 years, and Cubs fans continually whine and get massive publicity for it (BTW they should lose their "Lovable Losers" title after the way they crucified Steve Bartman; blame Alex Gonzalez and you're crappy bullpen for the loss Cubs fans!). The Giants haven't won a title since moving to San Francisco for chrissakes! Why is there not a curse moniker for that? I'm sure Mad Dog would love one so he can have something concrete to vent his frustration at on his dying radio show on Sirius.

And to make matters worse, the Florida Marlins (I'm sure the state of Florida has forgotten about them...after all they're too fascinated with Tim Tebow and his "friends") have won two titles! (Ironically, they have beat the Giants in the playoffs in both their World Series runs in 1997 and 2003).

See what the Sports Guy says here:

You'd think a 66-year title drought, the Bonds/BALCO fallout, a borderline Level 1 loss in 2002 and having its first World Series home game in 27 years postponed by a devastating earthquake during batting practice of the first-ever Bay Area World Series would get the message out that, "Hey, we need to start including these guys in all future Tortured Sports Cities discussions." Can you be underrated/tortured? Apparently so.

Thanks Sports Guy. Giants nation salutes you.

Bumgarner and Posey Make MLB.com's 2010 Top 50 prospects

Awesome. Just awesome. I know, I could say more, but what else can you say. Giants fans have known this for a year, so it really comes as no surprise to us that Bumgarner finished 10th and Posey fourth on Chris Mayo of MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects for 2010. I really have only two beefs with the rankings:

1.) Bumgarner fell four spots from last year (he was the No. 6 prospect on last year's list). I know his fastball dropped in velocity in the second half last year, but this guy actually did well at the MAJOR LEAGUES last year in a short stint. Shouldn't that count for something?

2.) Why is Buster Posey's video only 15 seconds? Seriously, he's the number four prospect and all you can give him is 15 seconds, while the No. 49 prospect, the Dodgers' Ethan Martin gets a minutes and 23 seconds? Come on MLB Network!

Panda in a San Jose Sharks Jersey

My Spanish isn't spectacular, but I'm pretty sure the description on the Tweet photo says "Pablo Sandoval after visiting the San Jose Sharks' arena this Thursday." (They played the Blackhawks tonight).

See, three years of high school Spanish did teach me something. Also, I will say this...Sandoval looks better in a Sharks jersey than Jonathan Cheechoo in a Giants jersey.

An Introspective on Denny Bautista

What do I know about Bautista? Not much other than the fact that he's Pedro and Ramon Martinez's cousin. However, thanks to Give 'Em Stankeye for putting up a good piece that recalls the "baseball experts" ripping the Orioles a new one for trading him away to Kansas City for Jason Grimsely. Basically, they made Bautista sound like the next big thing.

How the times have changed Denny. How the times have changed.


Angel Villalona Strikes Out (awfully) in Minor League Game

Remember when Villalona was one of the top prospects in the Minors? Then he gained a tremendous amount of weight, was unable to tell the difference between a ball and strike, and involved himself in a murder case in the Dominican Republic. Has it reached Ugueth Urbina-status yet? No, but it will be tough for Villalona to come back after this latest incident, especially with other Giants in the system making tremendous progress while he is...well...not. Just watch the link and how he strikes out on three straight, bad pitches. Can you really see a guy make the Major Leagues with a plate approach like that?

John Shea jinx? I think you could say that...if there was such a thing. Maybe Giants fans can coin that term with a few more flops.