The Blue Jays and Giants start a three game series tomorrow and I admit, I'm excited for it. I've been excited about it since April 15th:
Why? Because April 15th was the day the Giants traded a solid outfielder named Fred Lewis for $75,000 dollars.
Yep...a player with a career 4.5 WAR for chump change.
In many ways, I have gotten over it. Andres Torres has helped me get over it. Aubrey Huff has helped me get over it. Buster Posey's hot debut helped me get over it. John Bowker helped me find a new "he's getting hosed!" guy to support. (And he's from Sacramento, so that's a double-plus!)
That hasn't meant though I've completely forgotten about Fred. I've kept close tabs on him. I added him on my fantasy team for sentimental purposes. Heck, I even added a Blue Jays blogroll and adopted the Jays as my "Second Favorite team for the 2010 Season."
And, after watching Lewis this year...well...I'm surprised.
I'm not surprised that he's done well. He's always had the potential. I'm not surprised that Jays fans have taken a liking to him. He was always a class act.
I'm surprised by his dramatic change as a hitter.
Believe it Giants fans. Lewis is far from the same hitter he was in San Francisco. In fact, he's been the complete opposite of his usual self so far this 2010 season.
The numbers prove it.
The report on Lewis in San Francisco was this: he's going to strike out A LOT, but he has good speed and he's patient.
In the minors, Lewis had a career .383 OBP in 599 games. With the Giants, he had an OBP of .355 over three seasons. Furthermore, his other plate discipline numbers in his three seasons with the Giants prove the point that he was a very picky when it came to his approach.
In 2007, he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.59, had a swing percentage of 42 percent and an O-Swing percentage (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) of 21.2. In 2008, his BB/K ratio fell to 0.41 and his swing percentage rose to 43 percent, but his O-Swing percentage fell to 18.9 percent. Last year, he improved his BB/K ratio to 0.43, though his swing percentage rose to 44.4 percent and his O-swing percentage jumped to 19.4 percent.
It made sense though why Lewis was patient. He struck out a lot (his K percentage was 20.4, 26.5 and 28.5 percent from 2007-2009, respectively) and he didn't necessarily make contact as often as you would like (his contact percentage decreased from 84.3 percent in 2007 to 80 percent in 2008 to 77.6 percent). That being said, Lewis offered a skill set that a lot of Giants hitters didn't have at the time: he didn't give away strikes and he got on base. That was something the Giants certainly weren't seeing from other outfielders like Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn.
Since the trade to Toronto though, Lewis numbers look a little funny. His slash line is .291/.333/.814, and his plate discipline numbers look even more peculiar.
His O-swing percentage this year is 30 percent, a career high, and the first time in his Major League career when it's been above the league average. His swing percentage is 49.4 percent, the highest percentage since his rookie year in 2006 when it was 50 percent.
But you know what? It hasn't hurt him. Yes, Lewis is drawing less walks (his BB percentage is only 5.8 percent, almost five points lower than last year), still striking out a lot (27.7 percent exactly) and his BB/K ratio (0.23) and OBP aren't as comforting as they were in his Giants days. Yet Lewis is producing. His wOBA is .351. His wRC+ is 110. He has already matched his doubles total from last year (21) in 113 less plate appearances. His ISO at .189 is a career high by 31 points.
Lewis changed from a "patient, speedy hitter with not much power who strikes out a lot" in San Francisco to a "free swinging, speedy hitter with a little power who strikes out a lot" in Toronto. It's funny because Lewis was the kind of hitter that frustrated a lot of Giants fans for not being aggressive enough. Now, as a Blue Jay, he is ALMOST TOO aggressive. You wonder as a baseball fan if all that time he spent with Juan Uribe last year rubbed off on him at the plate when he migrated to Canada.
Now, Lewis isn't perfect. He has a minus-13.7 UZR/150 in the outfield this year with the Jays, which pretty much confirms to all the "Lewis Bashers" how bad a defensive player he is (his UZR in 2009 was 2.0). Do I think he's that bad? No, but his UZR/150 numbers two of the past three season have been negative, so the argument that he may be a GOOD defensive player may be invalid. At the very least he's average, or just slightly below and I think this year probably confirms that.
Despite his dropoff defensively, you have to feel happy for Lewis and the Blue Jays. Lewis has found playing time, and the Jays got a good player for peanuts. Maybe that's why Lewis is more aggressive now as a hitter with the Jays than his days with the Giants. Maybe he feels more relaxed. Maybe he knows manager Cito Gaston won't pull him out at the first sign of failure like Bruce Bochy would. Maybe he feels happier knowing that Blue Jays fans won't hound him every time he goes after a ball in the outfield like Giants fans did during the latter days of his career. Maybe he is more confident in Toronto because he's succeeding Jeremy Reed (who sucks) and not Barry Bonds (who is a legend).
Whatever the reason is, this is simple: Lewis, the Blue Jay, isn't the same Lewis we Giants fans knew and you know what? It's a good thing. It's nice to see a guy find a home, and it's nice to know that the Giants organization can develop good players (even if we may not play them as much as we probably should).
It will definitely be fun watching this Jays-Giants series the next three days. I can only offer Jays fans two things before the games start tomorrow:
1.) There are still some Giants fans that wish Fred was still a Giant and Eugenio Velez was still a Jay (sorry...it couldn't be helped).
2.) Sorry Jeremy Accardo, Merkin Valdez and Brian Bocock didn't turn out as well.
Showing posts with label Fred Lewis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fred Lewis. Show all posts
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
"Around the Candlestick": New Blog Additions, LALA Land, Dave Roberts, Lewis and Jays Update
It's been a while since I have done one of these, so I figure it's time. Two quick points before I start this edition of "Around the Candlestick":
1.) Interested to see how this road trip will go (I am always nervous when we play the Marlins).
2.) Disappointing that the Cleveland Cavs might actually lose in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Celtics could have pulled out game one and they annihilated in game two, and that was in Cleveland. LeBron (who is my favorite NBA player) may just be one of those players who might be jinxed in terms of winning a title (e.g. John Stockton, Karl Malone, Baron Davis...okay not Baron).
New Additions to the Giants Blogroll
There are some new faces to the Blogroll here at Remember '51. Crazy Crabbers, Grizzlies-Baseball, 22 Gigantes, Keith's Sports Journal, Bay Area Sports Guy and Golden Gate Giants are all new arrivals to the blogroll since the last edition of Around the Candlestick. Must say, they are all impressive blogs. Definitely check them out if you're looking for more Giants news and commentary.
Dodgerhater in Los Angeles and at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgerhater (run by Dan Pera) recently was in LA and visited Chavez Ravine. It's safe to say that he didn't enjoy his trip very much. He provides a good little diary of a Dodger game he went to and how the Dodgers and their fans (whom I don't like even more after this...I mean, c'mon! How many times do you catch a game ball?) tested his patience every step of the way. If you aren't familiar with the Dodgerhater blog and his feelings about the Bums, well...let's just say there's about as much love between them as Tito Ortiz and Jenna Jameson.
Good stuff, as always, from the Dodgerhater blog.
Dave Roberts Diagnosed With Lymphoma
I know on this blog I can be hard on guys. I criticize management (Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy) and players (Eugenio Velez and Aaron Rowand) all the time. That being said, despite my avid biases of players and people within the Giants organization, I am human.
Roberts may not have turned out well as a Giant. He unfortunately was given too big of a contract and he was simply near the end of the road in his career to produce much. It simply proved to be an unfortunate match of Roberts and the Giants, and one in a long line of Sabean's "not so great moves" as general manager.
However, Roberts definitely deserves some thoughts and support as he goes through treatment of Hodgkin's lymphoma. Despite never really panning out on the field, Roberts was a class act off of it and he deserves nothing but positive hope right now from Giants nation.
Fred Lewis and Blue Jays Update
If you haven't checked out the Blue Jays blogroll on the Remember '51 page, definitely do so. It may not be the Giants, but the Jays blogs really are pretty cool to check out. My personal favorite is 1 Blue Jays Way, which was one of the first Blue Jays blogs I started to follow, pre-Fred Lewis trade/giveaway.
Speaking of Fred, how's he doing so far as a Jay? Well, not awesome, but he's starting to turn it around and he's getting consistent playing time, which is something you can't say he'd be getting this season in San Francisco.
Lewis' statline after 15 games: .232 batting average, .290 OBP, nine runs scored, five RBI, and three stolen bases. Lewis has struck out a lot (17 K's) and he hasn't backed it up with a lot of walks either (0.24 BB/K ratio), but the last few games, it seems as if he has really gotten comfortable at the plate. Already in today's game against the Indians, he has a hit, a walk and scored the Jays' first run in two at-bats.
It makes you, as a Giants fan, really wonder. The Jays are 14-13, and need every little bit to compete in the AL East. And yet, they hit Lewis leadoff (something Giants fans said he couldn't do) and manager Cito Gaston seems to be patient in terms of giving Lewis (and others like Travis Snider and Jose Bautista) a chance.
I know Jays fans may hate me saying this, but I would rather have Gaston managing ball games than Bochy. If Bochy was managing the Jays, Lewis and Snider would have been buried already for free agent Eric Byrnes. (Because...as we know...Byrnes is a "gamer" and a "veteran.")
1.) Interested to see how this road trip will go (I am always nervous when we play the Marlins).
2.) Disappointing that the Cleveland Cavs might actually lose in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Celtics could have pulled out game one and they annihilated in game two, and that was in Cleveland. LeBron (who is my favorite NBA player) may just be one of those players who might be jinxed in terms of winning a title (e.g. John Stockton, Karl Malone, Baron Davis...okay not Baron).
New Additions to the Giants Blogroll
There are some new faces to the Blogroll here at Remember '51. Crazy Crabbers, Grizzlies-Baseball, 22 Gigantes, Keith's Sports Journal, Bay Area Sports Guy and Golden Gate Giants are all new arrivals to the blogroll since the last edition of Around the Candlestick. Must say, they are all impressive blogs. Definitely check them out if you're looking for more Giants news and commentary.
Dodgerhater in Los Angeles and at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgerhater (run by Dan Pera) recently was in LA and visited Chavez Ravine. It's safe to say that he didn't enjoy his trip very much. He provides a good little diary of a Dodger game he went to and how the Dodgers and their fans (whom I don't like even more after this...I mean, c'mon! How many times do you catch a game ball?) tested his patience every step of the way. If you aren't familiar with the Dodgerhater blog and his feelings about the Bums, well...let's just say there's about as much love between them as Tito Ortiz and Jenna Jameson.
Good stuff, as always, from the Dodgerhater blog.
Dave Roberts Diagnosed With Lymphoma
I know on this blog I can be hard on guys. I criticize management (Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy) and players (Eugenio Velez and Aaron Rowand) all the time. That being said, despite my avid biases of players and people within the Giants organization, I am human.
Roberts may not have turned out well as a Giant. He unfortunately was given too big of a contract and he was simply near the end of the road in his career to produce much. It simply proved to be an unfortunate match of Roberts and the Giants, and one in a long line of Sabean's "not so great moves" as general manager.
However, Roberts definitely deserves some thoughts and support as he goes through treatment of Hodgkin's lymphoma. Despite never really panning out on the field, Roberts was a class act off of it and he deserves nothing but positive hope right now from Giants nation.
Fred Lewis and Blue Jays Update
If you haven't checked out the Blue Jays blogroll on the Remember '51 page, definitely do so. It may not be the Giants, but the Jays blogs really are pretty cool to check out. My personal favorite is 1 Blue Jays Way, which was one of the first Blue Jays blogs I started to follow, pre-Fred Lewis trade/giveaway.
Speaking of Fred, how's he doing so far as a Jay? Well, not awesome, but he's starting to turn it around and he's getting consistent playing time, which is something you can't say he'd be getting this season in San Francisco.
Lewis' statline after 15 games: .232 batting average, .290 OBP, nine runs scored, five RBI, and three stolen bases. Lewis has struck out a lot (17 K's) and he hasn't backed it up with a lot of walks either (0.24 BB/K ratio), but the last few games, it seems as if he has really gotten comfortable at the plate. Already in today's game against the Indians, he has a hit, a walk and scored the Jays' first run in two at-bats.
It makes you, as a Giants fan, really wonder. The Jays are 14-13, and need every little bit to compete in the AL East. And yet, they hit Lewis leadoff (something Giants fans said he couldn't do) and manager Cito Gaston seems to be patient in terms of giving Lewis (and others like Travis Snider and Jose Bautista) a chance.
I know Jays fans may hate me saying this, but I would rather have Gaston managing ball games than Bochy. If Bochy was managing the Jays, Lewis and Snider would have been buried already for free agent Eric Byrnes. (Because...as we know...Byrnes is a "gamer" and a "veteran.")
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Fred Lewis to Toronto: Why Giants Fans Should Adopt the Blue Jays
It's not official, but it's darn near close. Fred Lewis is going to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later or cash. I speculated the deal was going to happen soon in a post yesterday, so I am not surprised. It is an unfortunate end for a under-appreciated player.
What can I say about Lewis now that he is a (pending) Blue Jay? I hope he breaks out. And I not only hope he breaks out, I hope he breaks out as a leadoff man (as some Blue Jays fans are envisioning). I hope he continues to post solid defensive numbers in the outfield despite drunk bleacher bums, and 50-plus year-old men who just found out about blogs two weeks ago, thinking otherwise. I hope he continues to keep the Jays as contenders in the AL East, and performs well with relief pitcher Merkin Valdez, another Giants castoff (I'm not holding out any hope for Brian Bocock though; Bocock is terrible).
I want Lewis to prove his doubters wrong. In all honesty, I was once a doubter, but I looked more into his profile and I realized he was better than I thought. More Giants fans could have done the same and made this departure easier for Lewis, but they didn't because a.) they are too lazy to look at advanced defensive statistics (e.g. UZR) or b.) they valued other players at his position too highly for stupid reasons (Aaron Rowand because he's a "gamer"; Eugenio Velez because "Jon Miller liked him in 2008 Spring Training"; Andres Torres because he's "got mental fortitude"; Nate Schierholtz because "He is crazy good defensively, and just needs more at-bats").
(In regard to those reasons: Rowand is just as bad as Lewis when it comes to jumps and reads, he just dives to make up for it; Velez is overrated and doesn't do anything particularly well; Torres was a fluke in 2009 and all his advanced numbers show that he actually was WORSE than Lewis offensively in many ways, especially when it came to striking out; and while Schierholtz is good defensively, he hacks at too much scrap and doesn't hit with enough power to make up for it.)
I hate that it had to turn out this way for Lewis. He deserved better than this. He deserved a little slack in 2009 after a great 2008 season (.282 average, .351 OBP, .348 wOBA, 8.4 wRAA, 21 SB), but unfortunately Schierholtz's hot stretch in June and Velez's hot July seemed to put him in the doghouse quickly, not only with Giants management, but with Giants fans and newspaper writers (especially Henry Schulman, who writes as if he had an agenda against Lewis and sabermetrics in general...though OBP is not technically a sabermetrics stat at the core, for it's pretty basic to calculate).
So, what does Toronto get? They get a good outfielder who will be a great answer to their leadoff problems (Seriously, Jose Bautista batting leadoff isn't getting you to the playoffs). Lewis is an upgrade at the moment over Travis Snider and Bautista in my mind, and I feel with the new environment, and also less pressure, Lewis can contribute immediately to this Blue Jays team.
Yet Toronto does not just get a good player today.
They should also get the support of Giants nation.
Yes, I am saying it right here: I am adopting the Toronto Blue Jays as a team to root for in 2010, and other Giants fans should do the same.
Now, as you know (if you have been following this blog), I don't say that with ease. I am stern in my commitment to teams in sports. For the most part, I only consider myself to be a fan of one team in each major sport (the 49ers in the NFL; Golden State Warriors in the NBA; San Jose "We Can't Win A Playoff Series" Sharks in the NHL; California Golden Bears in college football; Gonzaga Bulldogs in college basketball) and while I may "like" other teams, I won't ever consider myself to be a "fan" of them.
This is an exception, though it is only temporary for this season (it is subject to renewal).
Why do I think Giants fans should be fans of the Blue Jays? First off, the Lewis trade. Lewis deserves to be a Giant, but Brian Sabean and Schulman screwed it all up and he isn't. So, since he isn't in the black and orange, Giants fans should cheer for the team he currently plays for. What is that team? The Blue Jays. (Easy enough, right?)
Second, the Blue Jays are a classic of example of what should have happened as an organization if Sabean was not brought back. Alex Anthopolous really is a general manager with a ton of potential. He's young, he believes in his young talent, and when he makes deals, he usually has made smart, deals for younger, "still have something left in them and playing with a chip on their shoulder" players (i.e. Lewis and Valdez have good potential still and they came practically free; Aubrey Huff and Mark Derosa cost nine million dollars this year and who knows how much upside they have). Anthopolous is the kind of general manager the Giants should have pursued this off-season. Instead, they settled for the same old, same old for at least another couple of years.
Third, the Jays are a fun team to watch surprisingly (not easy to say because they are "Canada's Team"). Since getting rid of Alexis Rios (who apparently should have been traded to San Francisco for Tim Lincecum), the Jays seem to have a different energy. They have a lot of good arms in their rotation (Ricky Romero is a cross between Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez) and they have a lot of those "under-the-radar, but quality" players who broke out last year like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. To make matters better, they have a lot of good talent coming up, like Brett Wallace (who tore it up in Sacramento last year) and Kyle Drabek (who was acquired from Philly in the Roy Halladay deal).
Lastly, the Jays have four former Giants in their organization (Lewis, Valdez, Bocock, and Jeremy Accardo, who was traded to Toronto for one, short-lived "A.J. Pierzynski-esque" season of Shea Hillenbrand). They're practically the SF Giants-Canada!
My only problem with the Jays? I don't really like manager Cito Gaston. He seems to be the "old-school to a fault" kind of manager that Bruce Bochy is. Granted, he is an upgrade over previous manager John Gibbons (who couldn't stop fighting with his players), but from what I read in the Jays blogosphere, the Jays might be better off hiring somebody new in the off-season. Considering the new organizational philosophy under Anthopolous, Gaston just doesn't seem to be a fit.
Weigh the positives against the negatives and the answer is pretty simple: Giants fans should also be Jays fans in 2010, but shouldn't cheer for the Jays more than the Giants. Sound simple? No? It will get more simple in time once you continue to pay attention to Lewis and the Jays this season.
What can I say about Lewis now that he is a (pending) Blue Jay? I hope he breaks out. And I not only hope he breaks out, I hope he breaks out as a leadoff man (as some Blue Jays fans are envisioning). I hope he continues to post solid defensive numbers in the outfield despite drunk bleacher bums, and 50-plus year-old men who just found out about blogs two weeks ago, thinking otherwise. I hope he continues to keep the Jays as contenders in the AL East, and performs well with relief pitcher Merkin Valdez, another Giants castoff (I'm not holding out any hope for Brian Bocock though; Bocock is terrible).
I want Lewis to prove his doubters wrong. In all honesty, I was once a doubter, but I looked more into his profile and I realized he was better than I thought. More Giants fans could have done the same and made this departure easier for Lewis, but they didn't because a.) they are too lazy to look at advanced defensive statistics (e.g. UZR) or b.) they valued other players at his position too highly for stupid reasons (Aaron Rowand because he's a "gamer"; Eugenio Velez because "Jon Miller liked him in 2008 Spring Training"; Andres Torres because he's "got mental fortitude"; Nate Schierholtz because "He is crazy good defensively, and just needs more at-bats").
(In regard to those reasons: Rowand is just as bad as Lewis when it comes to jumps and reads, he just dives to make up for it; Velez is overrated and doesn't do anything particularly well; Torres was a fluke in 2009 and all his advanced numbers show that he actually was WORSE than Lewis offensively in many ways, especially when it came to striking out; and while Schierholtz is good defensively, he hacks at too much scrap and doesn't hit with enough power to make up for it.)
I hate that it had to turn out this way for Lewis. He deserved better than this. He deserved a little slack in 2009 after a great 2008 season (.282 average, .351 OBP, .348 wOBA, 8.4 wRAA, 21 SB), but unfortunately Schierholtz's hot stretch in June and Velez's hot July seemed to put him in the doghouse quickly, not only with Giants management, but with Giants fans and newspaper writers (especially Henry Schulman, who writes as if he had an agenda against Lewis and sabermetrics in general...though OBP is not technically a sabermetrics stat at the core, for it's pretty basic to calculate).
So, what does Toronto get? They get a good outfielder who will be a great answer to their leadoff problems (Seriously, Jose Bautista batting leadoff isn't getting you to the playoffs). Lewis is an upgrade at the moment over Travis Snider and Bautista in my mind, and I feel with the new environment, and also less pressure, Lewis can contribute immediately to this Blue Jays team.
Yet Toronto does not just get a good player today.
They should also get the support of Giants nation.
Yes, I am saying it right here: I am adopting the Toronto Blue Jays as a team to root for in 2010, and other Giants fans should do the same.
Now, as you know (if you have been following this blog), I don't say that with ease. I am stern in my commitment to teams in sports. For the most part, I only consider myself to be a fan of one team in each major sport (the 49ers in the NFL; Golden State Warriors in the NBA; San Jose "We Can't Win A Playoff Series" Sharks in the NHL; California Golden Bears in college football; Gonzaga Bulldogs in college basketball) and while I may "like" other teams, I won't ever consider myself to be a "fan" of them.
This is an exception, though it is only temporary for this season (it is subject to renewal).
Why do I think Giants fans should be fans of the Blue Jays? First off, the Lewis trade. Lewis deserves to be a Giant, but Brian Sabean and Schulman screwed it all up and he isn't. So, since he isn't in the black and orange, Giants fans should cheer for the team he currently plays for. What is that team? The Blue Jays. (Easy enough, right?)
Second, the Blue Jays are a classic of example of what should have happened as an organization if Sabean was not brought back. Alex Anthopolous really is a general manager with a ton of potential. He's young, he believes in his young talent, and when he makes deals, he usually has made smart, deals for younger, "still have something left in them and playing with a chip on their shoulder" players (i.e. Lewis and Valdez have good potential still and they came practically free; Aubrey Huff and Mark Derosa cost nine million dollars this year and who knows how much upside they have). Anthopolous is the kind of general manager the Giants should have pursued this off-season. Instead, they settled for the same old, same old for at least another couple of years.
Third, the Jays are a fun team to watch surprisingly (not easy to say because they are "Canada's Team"). Since getting rid of Alexis Rios (who apparently should have been traded to San Francisco for Tim Lincecum), the Jays seem to have a different energy. They have a lot of good arms in their rotation (Ricky Romero is a cross between Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez) and they have a lot of those "under-the-radar, but quality" players who broke out last year like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. To make matters better, they have a lot of good talent coming up, like Brett Wallace (who tore it up in Sacramento last year) and Kyle Drabek (who was acquired from Philly in the Roy Halladay deal).
Lastly, the Jays have four former Giants in their organization (Lewis, Valdez, Bocock, and Jeremy Accardo, who was traded to Toronto for one, short-lived "A.J. Pierzynski-esque" season of Shea Hillenbrand). They're practically the SF Giants-Canada!
My only problem with the Jays? I don't really like manager Cito Gaston. He seems to be the "old-school to a fault" kind of manager that Bruce Bochy is. Granted, he is an upgrade over previous manager John Gibbons (who couldn't stop fighting with his players), but from what I read in the Jays blogosphere, the Jays might be better off hiring somebody new in the off-season. Considering the new organizational philosophy under Anthopolous, Gaston just doesn't seem to be a fit.
Weigh the positives against the negatives and the answer is pretty simple: Giants fans should also be Jays fans in 2010, but shouldn't cheer for the Jays more than the Giants. Sound simple? No? It will get more simple in time once you continue to pay attention to Lewis and the Jays this season.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
What Will Happen to Fred Lewis? (And How Will the Giants Be Affected?)
Fred Lewis' stint on the Disabled List and rehab assignment in Fresno is shortly coming to an end. By this weekend, three things will happen to Lewis:
A.) He will be traded to another Major League ballclub (the Blue Jays, Padres and Athletics have been rumored destinations, with Toronto the most likely destination).
B.) He will be designated for assignment (e.g. waived).
C.) He will remain on the Giants roster, and either John Bowker will get sent down to Fresno or Eugenio Velez, Travis Ishikawa or Andres Torres will get designated for assignment.
While a lot of Giants and baseball fans still keep hope that the Giants management will come to their senses and keep Lewis on the roster, the last option seems very, very unlikely. Lewis' down season in 2009 and his "bad" defense according to baseball fans and writers' "eyes" (despite UZR showing that Lewis is an above-average defender) have just burned too many bridges for Lewis to stay in San Francisco.
It's a shame, really. As a Giants fan, you wish the general manager didn't stack the outfield with so many similar (albeit mediocre-to-above-average) pieces. You wish beat writers like Hank Schulman didn't have so much influence and weren't so ignorant to baseball statistics (seriously, his crusade against OBP is an argument that was made six-seven years ago) on Giants fans.
But like I said, it is what it is. (The worst part is that Schulman's "I'm old-school! I judge baseball by my eyes! OBP isn't a valid stat!" is seeping into our online communities.)
So, basically it comes down to A or B.
In my opinion, it's going to be A.
First off, I know Lewis doesn't have a lot of trade value, thus, many Giants fans will say "Who is going to want him? Nobody will trade for him at this point!"
Yet I point to Merkin Valdez as a key example of why designating guys for assignment can be tough, and should be avoided if necessary (though they did get lucky with Jesus Guzman).
Sure, Valdez did not have a good year last year. However, a pitcher that averages 95.5 MPH on his fastball isn't exactly easy to find, especially on the waiver wire. The Blue Jays realized this, played hard ball with the Giants so the Giants wouldn't think Valdez had any value for a trade, and swooped him up for practically nothing once Brian Sabean designated Valdez for assignment.
I guarantee you Sabean doesn't want to get burned like he did with Valdez again. And considering the Blue Jays and their fans are showing strong interest in Lewis, Sabean most likely will exhaust all his options before designating Lewis for assignment (and really, really exhaust them, even if it produces a "Kevin Frandsen to Boston").
With option B out of the way, that leaves us with A. Which team is going to trade with the Giants, and what are the Giants going to get back in return?
As of now, Toronto seems like the most logical choice. The Padres have a crowded outfield chock-full with young talent such as Tony Gwynn, Jr., Kyle Blanks and Will Venable, so Lewis doesn't seem to fit down in southern California (and I can't see Sabean trading within the division either). The Athletics have a similar situation. Though they have benefited in the past from the Giants' DFA transactions (e.g. Rajai Davis), there just isn't a place in Oakland's organizations for Lewis amongst Coco Crisp, Davis, Michael Taylor, Eric Patterson and Ryan Sweeney.
As for Toronto? In addition to new general manager Alex Anthopoulos' recent history of acquiring Giants (he also picked up Brian Bocock in addition to Valdez this off-season), the Blue Jays seem to be a solid fit for Lewis. Currently, the starting outfield consists of Travis Snider in left field, Vernon Wells in center field and Jose Bautista in right field.
Wells seems to be a mainstay due to his contract and "star" status. Snider and Bautista however, are on shakier ground.
Bautista seems to be a stellar player, though he is a bit of a journeyman and older (he'll be 30 in October). While his batting average wasn't great in 2009 (.235 last year), he posted a solid BB/K ratio (0.66) and has the ability to hit between 10-15 home runs in a season (he has hit 28 COMBINED the past two seasons). Additionally, Bautista was stellar defensively, as evidenced by his 5.1 UZR in right field last year.
Snider on the other hand, hasn't been quite as impressive. Lewis is actually an upgrade over him in almost every category. He strikes out less than Snider (28.5 percent strikeout rate to Snider's 32.4 in 2009), has a better BB/K ratio (0.43 to Snider's 0.37 in 2009), steals more bases (29 combined SB for Lewis the last two years, one total for Snider in his Major League career) and their wOBA numbers were identical in 2009 (.327).
Sure, Sinder is younger (22), so you have to cut him some slack. Yet with only Adam Lind (who's primarily the Blue Jays' designated hitter) and Jeremy Reed as the team's other outfielders at the moment, having Lewis as a platoon outfielder probably would be in the Blue Jays' best interests. He would have a lot of impact on the lineup, and he wouldn't cost the Jays too much in return.
Yet the main question Giants fans (as this is a Giants blog after all) have to wonder is this: what will the Giants receive in return should Sabean trade Lewis to Toronto?
The Blue Jays' organization isn't great (they were ranked 26th in Fangraphs' organizational rankings going into this season; though the Giants weren't much better at 23), but they do have some interesting talent in the minors.
While the big names such as Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek won't be touched, they have promising infielders who could be dealt in Brad Emaus and Kevin Ahrens (Emaus is coming off a solid season in Double-A, while Ahrens is coming off a poor season in high Single-A). The Jays do have a lot of assets in terms of pitching such as David Purcey and Robert Ray (and Jason Frasor would be an interesting pickup considering he just lost the closer's position to Kevin Gregg this week), but pitching doesn't really seem to be a need for the Giants now, be it in the starting rotation or bullpen.
It will be very interesting see what the Giants will do/get with Lewis. When you look at his WAR converted to dollars the past two years ($11 million in 2008; $5.1 million in 2009), you would think Lewis would generate a lot of return in a trade. But alas, the deadline on Lewis' future in San Francisco is getting closer, and for some reasons, it seems as if Lewis will be going to the Jays for scraps or designated for assignment, most likely getting picked up by Toronto the second he hits the waiver wire.
It's going sting when Lewis leaves. Lewis should leave to better memories than bleacher bums yelling at him all the time for no reason at AT&T Park, and 50-year-old men (or 24-year-old frat boys) on blogs or message boards writing "HE STRIKES OUT LOOKING ALL THE TIME!" (In caps lock, no less.)
All I hope for Lewis now is that he can have a good career, and that the Giants at least get SOMETHING worthwhile out of his leaving.
A.) He will be traded to another Major League ballclub (the Blue Jays, Padres and Athletics have been rumored destinations, with Toronto the most likely destination).
B.) He will be designated for assignment (e.g. waived).
C.) He will remain on the Giants roster, and either John Bowker will get sent down to Fresno or Eugenio Velez, Travis Ishikawa or Andres Torres will get designated for assignment.
While a lot of Giants and baseball fans still keep hope that the Giants management will come to their senses and keep Lewis on the roster, the last option seems very, very unlikely. Lewis' down season in 2009 and his "bad" defense according to baseball fans and writers' "eyes" (despite UZR showing that Lewis is an above-average defender) have just burned too many bridges for Lewis to stay in San Francisco.
It's a shame, really. As a Giants fan, you wish the general manager didn't stack the outfield with so many similar (albeit mediocre-to-above-average) pieces. You wish beat writers like Hank Schulman didn't have so much influence and weren't so ignorant to baseball statistics (seriously, his crusade against OBP is an argument that was made six-seven years ago) on Giants fans.
But like I said, it is what it is. (The worst part is that Schulman's "I'm old-school! I judge baseball by my eyes! OBP isn't a valid stat!" is seeping into our online communities.)
So, basically it comes down to A or B.
In my opinion, it's going to be A.
First off, I know Lewis doesn't have a lot of trade value, thus, many Giants fans will say "Who is going to want him? Nobody will trade for him at this point!"
Yet I point to Merkin Valdez as a key example of why designating guys for assignment can be tough, and should be avoided if necessary (though they did get lucky with Jesus Guzman).
Sure, Valdez did not have a good year last year. However, a pitcher that averages 95.5 MPH on his fastball isn't exactly easy to find, especially on the waiver wire. The Blue Jays realized this, played hard ball with the Giants so the Giants wouldn't think Valdez had any value for a trade, and swooped him up for practically nothing once Brian Sabean designated Valdez for assignment.
I guarantee you Sabean doesn't want to get burned like he did with Valdez again. And considering the Blue Jays and their fans are showing strong interest in Lewis, Sabean most likely will exhaust all his options before designating Lewis for assignment (and really, really exhaust them, even if it produces a "Kevin Frandsen to Boston").
With option B out of the way, that leaves us with A. Which team is going to trade with the Giants, and what are the Giants going to get back in return?
As of now, Toronto seems like the most logical choice. The Padres have a crowded outfield chock-full with young talent such as Tony Gwynn, Jr., Kyle Blanks and Will Venable, so Lewis doesn't seem to fit down in southern California (and I can't see Sabean trading within the division either). The Athletics have a similar situation. Though they have benefited in the past from the Giants' DFA transactions (e.g. Rajai Davis), there just isn't a place in Oakland's organizations for Lewis amongst Coco Crisp, Davis, Michael Taylor, Eric Patterson and Ryan Sweeney.
As for Toronto? In addition to new general manager Alex Anthopoulos' recent history of acquiring Giants (he also picked up Brian Bocock in addition to Valdez this off-season), the Blue Jays seem to be a solid fit for Lewis. Currently, the starting outfield consists of Travis Snider in left field, Vernon Wells in center field and Jose Bautista in right field.
Wells seems to be a mainstay due to his contract and "star" status. Snider and Bautista however, are on shakier ground.
Bautista seems to be a stellar player, though he is a bit of a journeyman and older (he'll be 30 in October). While his batting average wasn't great in 2009 (.235 last year), he posted a solid BB/K ratio (0.66) and has the ability to hit between 10-15 home runs in a season (he has hit 28 COMBINED the past two seasons). Additionally, Bautista was stellar defensively, as evidenced by his 5.1 UZR in right field last year.
Snider on the other hand, hasn't been quite as impressive. Lewis is actually an upgrade over him in almost every category. He strikes out less than Snider (28.5 percent strikeout rate to Snider's 32.4 in 2009), has a better BB/K ratio (0.43 to Snider's 0.37 in 2009), steals more bases (29 combined SB for Lewis the last two years, one total for Snider in his Major League career) and their wOBA numbers were identical in 2009 (.327).
Sure, Sinder is younger (22), so you have to cut him some slack. Yet with only Adam Lind (who's primarily the Blue Jays' designated hitter) and Jeremy Reed as the team's other outfielders at the moment, having Lewis as a platoon outfielder probably would be in the Blue Jays' best interests. He would have a lot of impact on the lineup, and he wouldn't cost the Jays too much in return.
Yet the main question Giants fans (as this is a Giants blog after all) have to wonder is this: what will the Giants receive in return should Sabean trade Lewis to Toronto?
The Blue Jays' organization isn't great (they were ranked 26th in Fangraphs' organizational rankings going into this season; though the Giants weren't much better at 23), but they do have some interesting talent in the minors.
While the big names such as Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek won't be touched, they have promising infielders who could be dealt in Brad Emaus and Kevin Ahrens (Emaus is coming off a solid season in Double-A, while Ahrens is coming off a poor season in high Single-A). The Jays do have a lot of assets in terms of pitching such as David Purcey and Robert Ray (and Jason Frasor would be an interesting pickup considering he just lost the closer's position to Kevin Gregg this week), but pitching doesn't really seem to be a need for the Giants now, be it in the starting rotation or bullpen.
It will be very interesting see what the Giants will do/get with Lewis. When you look at his WAR converted to dollars the past two years ($11 million in 2008; $5.1 million in 2009), you would think Lewis would generate a lot of return in a trade. But alas, the deadline on Lewis' future in San Francisco is getting closer, and for some reasons, it seems as if Lewis will be going to the Jays for scraps or designated for assignment, most likely getting picked up by Toronto the second he hits the waiver wire.
It's going sting when Lewis leaves. Lewis should leave to better memories than bleacher bums yelling at him all the time for no reason at AT&T Park, and 50-year-old men (or 24-year-old frat boys) on blogs or message boards writing "HE STRIKES OUT LOOKING ALL THE TIME!" (In caps lock, no less.)
All I hope for Lewis now is that he can have a good career, and that the Giants at least get SOMETHING worthwhile out of his leaving.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
"Around the Candlestick": New Blog, Prospects Introspective, "Giants" Optimism, Affeldt Extension, Giants Book Review
Two things before I do another round of "Around the Candlestick" today:
1.) Butler proves that Gonzaga has no execuse for not shooting for the Final Four. Seriously, after Butler made the Final Four, I'm not doing the "Oh, I'm just happy if we go to the Sweet 16" act. Butler is in the Horizon. The Horizon is Butler and that's it. Mark Few and Gonzaga need to put up or shut up, and that put up is a Final Four berth.
2.) I'm still holding up hope that Fred Lewis will stay as a Giant, though all popular (and idiotic) opinion seem to be in the camp that he is out of here like Kevin Frandsen. I hope that the Giants management will see that Andres Torres and Eugenio Velez aren't upgrades over Lewis. I hope that management will realize that Mark Derosa might be a better option at second base to start the season than Juan Uribe (who had an uncharacteristically good offensive year in 2009). I hope that Brian Sabean isn't an idiot.
Like Andy said to Red in the Shawshank Redemption, "Hope is a good thing."
Now on to the "Around the Candlestick" links and hat tips.
New Blog: (500) Days of Zobrist
I am shameless, but I have to plug it. About a week ago, I asked my friend and fellow baseball fan (and crazy fantasy baseball fanatic) Luke Ricci to write a post for me on "five things he learned from our fantasy auction draft." Well, I re-thought about the request because I was like "Well, I don't really talk about fantasy baseball on this blog, and it would detract from the Giants theme as well."
So, Luke suggested the idea of combining forces to create our own fantasy baseball blog (which he was planning on doing anyway with or without me). And, like the good friend I am, I jumped head first in.
As of this moment, our fantasy baseball blog, (500) Days of Zobrist, is in its early stages. We have only five posts. We have only five followers on our Twitter account. We have had only five comments. (Strange how things work in five's huh?)
However, I assure you it's good stuff. Not only is it a place where you will see other posts from me on baseball subjects NOT involving the Giants, but you will also see great writing from Luke, who knows his baseball stuff.
Check it out today. If you like Remember '51, but want more general baseball talk, (500) Days of Zobrist is definitely worth a peek at.
A Realistic Look at the Giants Prospects
I have mad respect for Obssessive Giants Compulsive and his blog. Maybe it's because he's a cross between objective baseball analyst (he has an MBA and experience in analytics) and berzerk fan (he got so much bad grief from his rants on his earlier blog, that he had to create an entirely new one). I like to consider myself in that category of fandom. Do we agree on the same things? Not exactly, but I like to believe that are mindsets as Giants fans are quite similar.
Anyway, OGC had a great post yesterday in the comparison between hitting and pitching prospects and their success at the Major League level. He said it all in this bit:
Well said. Yes we have to rebuild, but to think that it's going to happen overnight is a bit foolish. Granted, I wish our GM would actually adhere to developing guys more than settling on short-term free agent solution after free agent solution, but I do agree that the right guys are coming up in our system, and it's only a matter of time before our offense comes around like our pitching.
Giants NL West Champions? It Could Happen...
PaapFly.com wrote a great post concerning his optimism for the Giants in 2010. Basically, he plays off a piece he read by Joe Posnanski and the Royals (Posnanski is a Royals fan). So in the same vein, Rory at PaapFly decides to see if being optimistic about the Giants winning the West is a realistic thing or a "Head in the clouds" fantasy.
Rory doesn't hold the punches back when it comes to the Giants. He realizes a lot of pieces fell into place last year. He realizes that health is a huge factor. He realizes that Brian Sabean, much like Royals Datyon Moore, is a crappy GM. However, he makes this claim at the end of his post:
Would I want more closure than that? Sure. But for now, I'll take it. Everybody says we're the fourth-best team in the NL West. It's nice to see something for a change that gives us "leaning toward the pessimistic, but we're realists at the heart" Giants fans some hope.
(The hope theme is huge here! Drink it in!)
Jeremy Affeldt Returns! (For Two More Years...Maybe)
The whole contract situation behind Affeldt's deal is weird. Apparently it's incentive based, and there's a club option, and for the most part, it was a safe deal on Sabean's behalf.
Or at least that's what everyone is saying, even though I don't seem to agree with the mindset behind the deal.
Nick from Croix De Candlestick echoes the popular sentiment. He seems to be in the camp that Affeldt is needed, and that the Giants did a good thing by re-signing him so they wouldn't lose him to larger deals should he opt for free agency after the contract he signed in 2008 expired.
He says this about the deal:
I think this was a well-written piece, but for the most part I disagree with Nick. Last year was a regression. He just got lucky and it wasn't as noticeable (huge ERA and FIP discrepancy). I don't trust a guy to be a setup pitcher with a walk rate over four. I don't like it when he has a crazy GB/FB rate one year after never really being one in his career. I don't like it when he had 20 less innings than appearances. It just makes me think it's a waste of money, especially when you have a younger, cheaper option in Dan Runzler waiting in the wings.
(On a side note: I hate this "low-risk, high reward talk." As a business major, the term doesn't exist. In order to have high reward there needs to be risk. Now, it may not be obvious risk (maybe in contract, money, etc.), but there is risk nonetheless.
For example, a lot of people say "Aubrey Huff! Low risk, high reward!" Not really. The risk you have with a player like Huff goes beyond salary: he's a clunker defensively, he blocks Ishikawa (who has no minor league options left), he is 33 years old, and he is coming off a bad year. That's a hell of a lot of risk. Now look at the reward: he breaks out and provides offense similar to his 2008 numbers where he put up great stats. That's a high reward, but it comes with a considerable amount of risk.
With high reward there usually is high risk. The whole low risk, high reward talk is really a figment of people's optimism. Also, it excuses incompetency, which I think Giants fans have been doing for far too long.)
Chris at Bay City Ball echoed some of my same worries with Affeldt:
I really think Chris hits it the nail on the head here. It's not necessarily a terrible move (if Affeldt has another year like last year - though I won't bank on it - the extension for Affeldt is worth it) it's just that it came terribly early, and it came at a pretty high price. In all likelihood, it would have been better for the Giants to wait until the season and negotiate with Affledt at the end of the year on a new contract once his current one ran out. If Affeldt wanted to hardball, let him walk. The Giants have Runzler, and at 31-years of age, Affeldt most likely would be in regression as a pitcher anyways, and would have been hard pressed to repeat those 2009 or 2008 numbers.
Book Review on "Giants Past and Present": the Aftermath
I have been getting a lot of thanks from Dan Fost and his crew at MVP Books for my review on his coffee-table book. I really appreciate the feedback, (which is ironic since my review is feedback of his book; feedback on feedback! Crazy!)
That being said, I just want to clarify something as well: I mean what I say. One guy on Bleacher Report (I also posted the review on my Bleacher Report profile) gave a sarcastic little "You must work for the book company or be the author himself!"
One, I don't know why he would even suggest that when I wrote 90 articles on Bleacher Report other than that review (in comparison to him who wrote only around 10). Two, I don't write what people want. I take things into consideration, but I don't write to promote anything solely (unless it's my own, then I'm kind of shameless in that regard...sorry. I'm not perfect).
Example. Last year, I was given an opportunity as Sports Editor of the Gonzaga Bulletin to interview members of the ESPN College Gameday Crew when they visited Gonzaga. The marketing director asked if I could promote their "Hub of College Basketball" advertisements. I wrote a sentence in one of the articles about it, and that's it. I didn't want to please them completely even though they hooked me up with interviews (a luxury a lot of other media didn't get) because a.) I didn't know what the hell they were talking about at first, b.) I still didn't understand what the hell they were talking about after I interviewed Digger Phelps (jerk), Hubert Davis (awesome!) and the producer (can't remember his name, but really nice guy) and c.) nobody would have cared about their promotion or not. So, I wrote a sentence out of courtesy, but everything else was about the game, the event and the Zags, like it should have been, not some promotion.
So, you could say "They paid you off to do that review," but you'd be wrong. I love to criticize. I criticize Brian Sabean as much as possible with great glee. But I recognize good things and give them their credit when credit is due. That is the case in Fost's book. It's great. It's an awesome read, it has a lot of great material, and it's essential because it's something different from the usual "Glory Days of the Yankees" or "The Curse of the Bambino" books you see in bookstores.
There. That settles it. There is no controversy.
1.) Butler proves that Gonzaga has no execuse for not shooting for the Final Four. Seriously, after Butler made the Final Four, I'm not doing the "Oh, I'm just happy if we go to the Sweet 16" act. Butler is in the Horizon. The Horizon is Butler and that's it. Mark Few and Gonzaga need to put up or shut up, and that put up is a Final Four berth.
2.) I'm still holding up hope that Fred Lewis will stay as a Giant, though all popular (and idiotic) opinion seem to be in the camp that he is out of here like Kevin Frandsen. I hope that the Giants management will see that Andres Torres and Eugenio Velez aren't upgrades over Lewis. I hope that management will realize that Mark Derosa might be a better option at second base to start the season than Juan Uribe (who had an uncharacteristically good offensive year in 2009). I hope that Brian Sabean isn't an idiot.
Like Andy said to Red in the Shawshank Redemption, "Hope is a good thing."
Now on to the "Around the Candlestick" links and hat tips.
New Blog: (500) Days of Zobrist
I am shameless, but I have to plug it. About a week ago, I asked my friend and fellow baseball fan (and crazy fantasy baseball fanatic) Luke Ricci to write a post for me on "five things he learned from our fantasy auction draft." Well, I re-thought about the request because I was like "Well, I don't really talk about fantasy baseball on this blog, and it would detract from the Giants theme as well."
So, Luke suggested the idea of combining forces to create our own fantasy baseball blog (which he was planning on doing anyway with or without me). And, like the good friend I am, I jumped head first in.
As of this moment, our fantasy baseball blog, (500) Days of Zobrist, is in its early stages. We have only five posts. We have only five followers on our Twitter account. We have had only five comments. (Strange how things work in five's huh?)
However, I assure you it's good stuff. Not only is it a place where you will see other posts from me on baseball subjects NOT involving the Giants, but you will also see great writing from Luke, who knows his baseball stuff.
Check it out today. If you like Remember '51, but want more general baseball talk, (500) Days of Zobrist is definitely worth a peek at.
A Realistic Look at the Giants Prospects
I have mad respect for Obssessive Giants Compulsive and his blog. Maybe it's because he's a cross between objective baseball analyst (he has an MBA and experience in analytics) and berzerk fan (he got so much bad grief from his rants on his earlier blog, that he had to create an entirely new one). I like to consider myself in that category of fandom. Do we agree on the same things? Not exactly, but I like to believe that are mindsets as Giants fans are quite similar.
Anyway, OGC had a great post yesterday in the comparison between hitting and pitching prospects and their success at the Major League level. He said it all in this bit:
"So the Giants lineup sucks. Other team's pitching sucks. And yet others, defense. Rebuilding teams always have things that suck. The successful ones add on pieces each year and make the playoffs eventually. Prospects don't all blossom all at once, they take time and not all take the same time. Lincecum took less than a couple of months to figure it all out. Sanchez took a number of years (so did Koufax and Randy Johnson, FYI)."
Well said. Yes we have to rebuild, but to think that it's going to happen overnight is a bit foolish. Granted, I wish our GM would actually adhere to developing guys more than settling on short-term free agent solution after free agent solution, but I do agree that the right guys are coming up in our system, and it's only a matter of time before our offense comes around like our pitching.
Giants NL West Champions? It Could Happen...
PaapFly.com wrote a great post concerning his optimism for the Giants in 2010. Basically, he plays off a piece he read by Joe Posnanski and the Royals (Posnanski is a Royals fan). So in the same vein, Rory at PaapFly decides to see if being optimistic about the Giants winning the West is a realistic thing or a "Head in the clouds" fantasy.
Rory doesn't hold the punches back when it comes to the Giants. He realizes a lot of pieces fell into place last year. He realizes that health is a huge factor. He realizes that Brian Sabean, much like Royals Datyon Moore, is a crappy GM. However, he makes this claim at the end of his post:
"It’s still mid-march and the games are still quite meaningless. But the Giants have some brilliant pieces and if everything goes more or less how they are hoping it will this season, we may well see some post season baseball. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Dodgers are busy spending all of their cash on legal fees rather than baseball players."
Would I want more closure than that? Sure. But for now, I'll take it. Everybody says we're the fourth-best team in the NL West. It's nice to see something for a change that gives us "leaning toward the pessimistic, but we're realists at the heart" Giants fans some hope.
(The hope theme is huge here! Drink it in!)
Jeremy Affeldt Returns! (For Two More Years...Maybe)
The whole contract situation behind Affeldt's deal is weird. Apparently it's incentive based, and there's a club option, and for the most part, it was a safe deal on Sabean's behalf.
Or at least that's what everyone is saying, even though I don't seem to agree with the mindset behind the deal.
Nick from Croix De Candlestick echoes the popular sentiment. He seems to be in the camp that Affeldt is needed, and that the Giants did a good thing by re-signing him so they wouldn't lose him to larger deals should he opt for free agency after the contract he signed in 2008 expired.
He says this about the deal:
"Expect a regression from the newly re-signed Affeldt, but not to levels that would make him ineffective. He’ll still be the go-to 8th inning guy, and he’ll still do a damn fine job. If he gets back in the strike zone and kicks up that K/9 rate it might make up for the increase in BABIP that he’s going to see in 2010, so the regression may not be quite as painful to witness. Simply, it’s a good move with a low risk and good potential for upside."
I think this was a well-written piece, but for the most part I disagree with Nick. Last year was a regression. He just got lucky and it wasn't as noticeable (huge ERA and FIP discrepancy). I don't trust a guy to be a setup pitcher with a walk rate over four. I don't like it when he has a crazy GB/FB rate one year after never really being one in his career. I don't like it when he had 20 less innings than appearances. It just makes me think it's a waste of money, especially when you have a younger, cheaper option in Dan Runzler waiting in the wings.
(On a side note: I hate this "low-risk, high reward talk." As a business major, the term doesn't exist. In order to have high reward there needs to be risk. Now, it may not be obvious risk (maybe in contract, money, etc.), but there is risk nonetheless.
For example, a lot of people say "Aubrey Huff! Low risk, high reward!" Not really. The risk you have with a player like Huff goes beyond salary: he's a clunker defensively, he blocks Ishikawa (who has no minor league options left), he is 33 years old, and he is coming off a bad year. That's a hell of a lot of risk. Now look at the reward: he breaks out and provides offense similar to his 2008 numbers where he put up great stats. That's a high reward, but it comes with a considerable amount of risk.
With high reward there usually is high risk. The whole low risk, high reward talk is really a figment of people's optimism. Also, it excuses incompetency, which I think Giants fans have been doing for far too long.)
Chris at Bay City Ball echoed some of my same worries with Affeldt:
"As a starter-turned-reliever, Affeldt has found success in his bullpen role. Unless he’s closing for the Giants, you can expect him to post WAR values of anywhere between .4 wins to .8 wins in most seasons. He should continue to be a valuable member of the bullpen for the next two years. Just don’t expect him to post another 1.73 ERA. Again, it’s not a bad deal, but the Giants are soon going to have $10M of payroll tied up between Brian Wilson and Jeremy Affeldt. For a team that’s paying out a large chunk of payroll to Zito, Rowand, Renteria, DeRosa, and Freddy Sanchez, I’m not exactly thrilled with padding the bullpen with more money. It seems to be the one place on the team where the Giants have a few prospects that could come in and succeed without having to hand out $5M contracts.
Conclusion: I don’t hate the deal, but I’m not thrilled with the price."
I really think Chris hits it the nail on the head here. It's not necessarily a terrible move (if Affeldt has another year like last year - though I won't bank on it - the extension for Affeldt is worth it) it's just that it came terribly early, and it came at a pretty high price. In all likelihood, it would have been better for the Giants to wait until the season and negotiate with Affledt at the end of the year on a new contract once his current one ran out. If Affeldt wanted to hardball, let him walk. The Giants have Runzler, and at 31-years of age, Affeldt most likely would be in regression as a pitcher anyways, and would have been hard pressed to repeat those 2009 or 2008 numbers.
Book Review on "Giants Past and Present": the Aftermath
I have been getting a lot of thanks from Dan Fost and his crew at MVP Books for my review on his coffee-table book. I really appreciate the feedback, (which is ironic since my review is feedback of his book; feedback on feedback! Crazy!)
That being said, I just want to clarify something as well: I mean what I say. One guy on Bleacher Report (I also posted the review on my Bleacher Report profile) gave a sarcastic little "You must work for the book company or be the author himself!"
One, I don't know why he would even suggest that when I wrote 90 articles on Bleacher Report other than that review (in comparison to him who wrote only around 10). Two, I don't write what people want. I take things into consideration, but I don't write to promote anything solely (unless it's my own, then I'm kind of shameless in that regard...sorry. I'm not perfect).
Example. Last year, I was given an opportunity as Sports Editor of the Gonzaga Bulletin to interview members of the ESPN College Gameday Crew when they visited Gonzaga. The marketing director asked if I could promote their "Hub of College Basketball" advertisements. I wrote a sentence in one of the articles about it, and that's it. I didn't want to please them completely even though they hooked me up with interviews (a luxury a lot of other media didn't get) because a.) I didn't know what the hell they were talking about at first, b.) I still didn't understand what the hell they were talking about after I interviewed Digger Phelps (jerk), Hubert Davis (awesome!) and the producer (can't remember his name, but really nice guy) and c.) nobody would have cared about their promotion or not. So, I wrote a sentence out of courtesy, but everything else was about the game, the event and the Zags, like it should have been, not some promotion.
So, you could say "They paid you off to do that review," but you'd be wrong. I love to criticize. I criticize Brian Sabean as much as possible with great glee. But I recognize good things and give them their credit when credit is due. That is the case in Fost's book. It's great. It's an awesome read, it has a lot of great material, and it's essential because it's something different from the usual "Glory Days of the Yankees" or "The Curse of the Bambino" books you see in bookstores.
There. That settles it. There is no controversy.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Is Rajai Davis of the Oakland A's that Much Better Than Fred Lewis?
I got in a heated argument with a commenter on an article on Bleacher Report a couple of days ago. The piece was mostly about Giants general manager Brian Sabean not giving young guys like Kevin Frandsen and Rajai Davis that much of a chance, and that his unwillingness to go with younger players is the main reason why the Giants are going to struggle to be successful in the long-run.
For the most part, I liked and agreed with the article...except for the part about Rajai Davis.
Like I said in my comments, hindsight is 20/20. In all reality, nobody expected Davis to be that good, the Giants especially. Davis was a pickup by the Giants in 2007 in the Matt Morris to Pittsburgh trade and in all honesty, the Giants were more concerned about getting rid of Morris and his contract rather than acquiring anyone. Davis was a nice player, but the Giants weren't expecting him to have much of an impact (he was a 38th round pick after all).
Furthermore, what made Davis expendable at the time was that he happened to be very similar to another player on the Giants roster when he arrived in San Francisco in 2007.
That player happened to be Fred Lewis, a player the Giants drafted in the second round of the 2002 MLB Draft and had high hopes for after solid minor league campaigns from 2002-2007.
Going into 2008, after the acquisition of Aaron Rowand in the off-season, the Giants basically had a choice to make: whom do they go with in left field? Do they go with Lewis or Davis? With Rowand patrolling center and Randy Winn in right, the Giants couldn't afford to have both.
Lewis got off to a good start in 2008. Davis didn't. Thus, Davis was released and he wound up with the Oakland A's. Lewis went on to have a solid year with the Giants in 2008, while Davis posted pretty mediocre statistics the remainder of the season across the Bay in Oakland.
And then, last year happened.
While Lewis didn't have as bad a year as many people would like to believe, he still regressed nonetheless. He struggled defensively (though not as much as I think people would like to believe), lost his spot in left field, and dealt with the endless harping of Giants fans who wanted Lewis to be more aggressive at the plate like fan favorites Nate Schierholtz and Pablo Sandoval (granted, that was never Lewis' style of hitting, but fans still harped about it nonetheless).
As for Davis, well...he broke out in a big way. While he played for a struggling Oakland A's squad last year, Davis earned a spot in center field thanks to some pretty impressive numbers at the plate. In 2009, he posted a .305 batting average, .360 OBP, .784 OPS and stole 41 bases.
As you can see by those numbers in 2009, you can understand why Giants fans would be upset that Sabean released Davis instead of Lewis back in 2008. However, I can give three reasons why Giants fans shouldn't be so quick to thrash Lewis and put Davis on a pedestal:
1. Other than stolen bases and batting average, Lewis' numbers were actually comparable with Davis'. Davis was just luckier than Lewis in 2009.
In 2009, Davis had 41 stolen bases; Lewis had eight. Davis batted .305 last year; Lewis hit .258. So, Davis has been a better base-stealer than Lewis over his career and probably will be so again next year (or at least that's what Rickey Henderson is saying). Also, Davis may hit better than Lewis in terms of batting average because Davis is better at making contact than Lewis (Davis made contact 80.2 percent of the time last season while Lewis only made contact 77.4 percent of the time).
Other than that though, you can really debate how much better Davis is than Lewis.
For starters, Davis benefited from an unusually high BABIP (.361) last season. He had never had a BABIP over .321 at the Major League level until last year. As for Lewis' BABIP, it came down to .348 after it was also crazy high at .365 in 2008. (That being said, Lewis has been prone to high BABIP numbers, for he also had a .344 BABIP in 2007 over the course of 58 games.)
Now, high BABIP numbers aren't necessarily a bad thing (especially with guys who have a lot of speed). Usually, hitters who tend to have high groundball rates are more likely to post high BABIP numbers on a consistent basis.
Lewis' groundball percentage in 2009 was 52.1 percent (the lowest percent of his Major League career). He also posted a 1.96 GB/FB ratio and owned a line-drive percentage of 21.3 percent, the second highest percentage of his Major League career (which explains his drop in groundball percentage).
2. Lewis' "patient" approach at the plate is better than Davis' "free-swinging" mentality.
The most interesting numbers in the Davis and Lewis comparison have to come in terms of plate patience.
Davis posted better numbers at the plate in 2009 in comparison to Lewis, there is no doubt about that. However, even though his numbers were impressive, his plate approach might not be conducive to consistent success. As for Lewis, while he might frustrate fans who are used to seeing the Giants' "free-swinging" hitters, his patient, more efficient plate approach might produce more consistent success in the long-run in comparison to Davis.
In 2009, Lewis had a four percent advantage in walk percentage (10.7 percent for Lewis, 6.7 percent for Davis) and even though he had a much higher strikeout rate than Davis in 2009 (28.5 to 17.9 percent), Lewis still had a better BB/K ratio (0.43) than Davis (0.41).
Also, Lewis' disciplined approach at the plate was evident in 2009, especially in comparison to Davis. Lewis only swung at 19.4 percent of pitches outside the strike zone last year. As for Davis? He swung at 30.6 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. (For a team that has had players swing at pitches that actually hit them in games, I think the Giants would benefit from Lewis' more disciplined approach rather than Davis' hacking mentality.)
Davis may have gotten to have more hits to fall for him in 2009 in comparison to Lewis. However, if he doesn't improve his free-swinging approach and understand the strike zone better in 2010, then it is highly likely that his stats will look closer to his 2008 numbers (e.g. mediocre) rather than his impressive 2009 ones.
3. Davis will have less opportunity to succeed in 2010 than in 2009.
Lewis will have a tough time cracking the lineup in 2010. Every Giants fans pretty much acknowledges that, even Lewis himself. He is playing behind Mark Derosa, Eugenio Velez, Andres Torres and John Bowker in left field going into Spring Training, and therefore, he will need to make the most of his opportunities this Spring Training if he wants to stay on the Giants' 25-man active roster come April. As for Davis, he seems to be the main man in center field for the A's in 2010.
Or at least that's what everyone thinks. In all honesty though, he will have little room for error once the season starts in April. This off-season, the A's signed Coco Crisp and they still have the highly-touted Ryan Sweeney, whom many people project to have a better season than both Davis and Crisp in 2010.
So, if anything, it is very plausible to think that Davis is capable of being Fred Lewis ala 2009. There are a lot of solid, if not better options around him (think Schierholtz, Velez for Lewis in 2009 and Crisp, Sweeney for Davis in 2010), and considering the A's have a lot less invested in Davis than they do in Sweeney or Crisp, Davis is a very expendable player despite his solid 2009.
Can Davis handle the pressure of being the front runner after coming out of nowhere in 2009? Can he produce a good enough start to keep off guys like Crisp or Sweeney, whom A's fans will easily clamor for if Davis does not produce in 2010 like he did in 2009?
Now, we won't know until the season starts, but if I have to guess, it wouldn't be surprising to see Davis be a scapegoat for A's fans in 2010 like Lewis was a scapegoat for Giants fans in 2009.
For the most part, I liked and agreed with the article...except for the part about Rajai Davis.
Like I said in my comments, hindsight is 20/20. In all reality, nobody expected Davis to be that good, the Giants especially. Davis was a pickup by the Giants in 2007 in the Matt Morris to Pittsburgh trade and in all honesty, the Giants were more concerned about getting rid of Morris and his contract rather than acquiring anyone. Davis was a nice player, but the Giants weren't expecting him to have much of an impact (he was a 38th round pick after all).
Furthermore, what made Davis expendable at the time was that he happened to be very similar to another player on the Giants roster when he arrived in San Francisco in 2007.
That player happened to be Fred Lewis, a player the Giants drafted in the second round of the 2002 MLB Draft and had high hopes for after solid minor league campaigns from 2002-2007.
Going into 2008, after the acquisition of Aaron Rowand in the off-season, the Giants basically had a choice to make: whom do they go with in left field? Do they go with Lewis or Davis? With Rowand patrolling center and Randy Winn in right, the Giants couldn't afford to have both.
Lewis got off to a good start in 2008. Davis didn't. Thus, Davis was released and he wound up with the Oakland A's. Lewis went on to have a solid year with the Giants in 2008, while Davis posted pretty mediocre statistics the remainder of the season across the Bay in Oakland.
And then, last year happened.
While Lewis didn't have as bad a year as many people would like to believe, he still regressed nonetheless. He struggled defensively (though not as much as I think people would like to believe), lost his spot in left field, and dealt with the endless harping of Giants fans who wanted Lewis to be more aggressive at the plate like fan favorites Nate Schierholtz and Pablo Sandoval (granted, that was never Lewis' style of hitting, but fans still harped about it nonetheless).
As for Davis, well...he broke out in a big way. While he played for a struggling Oakland A's squad last year, Davis earned a spot in center field thanks to some pretty impressive numbers at the plate. In 2009, he posted a .305 batting average, .360 OBP, .784 OPS and stole 41 bases.
As you can see by those numbers in 2009, you can understand why Giants fans would be upset that Sabean released Davis instead of Lewis back in 2008. However, I can give three reasons why Giants fans shouldn't be so quick to thrash Lewis and put Davis on a pedestal:
1. Other than stolen bases and batting average, Lewis' numbers were actually comparable with Davis'. Davis was just luckier than Lewis in 2009.
In 2009, Davis had 41 stolen bases; Lewis had eight. Davis batted .305 last year; Lewis hit .258. So, Davis has been a better base-stealer than Lewis over his career and probably will be so again next year (or at least that's what Rickey Henderson is saying). Also, Davis may hit better than Lewis in terms of batting average because Davis is better at making contact than Lewis (Davis made contact 80.2 percent of the time last season while Lewis only made contact 77.4 percent of the time).
Other than that though, you can really debate how much better Davis is than Lewis.
For starters, Davis benefited from an unusually high BABIP (.361) last season. He had never had a BABIP over .321 at the Major League level until last year. As for Lewis' BABIP, it came down to .348 after it was also crazy high at .365 in 2008. (That being said, Lewis has been prone to high BABIP numbers, for he also had a .344 BABIP in 2007 over the course of 58 games.)
Now, high BABIP numbers aren't necessarily a bad thing (especially with guys who have a lot of speed). Usually, hitters who tend to have high groundball rates are more likely to post high BABIP numbers on a consistent basis.
Lewis' groundball percentage in 2009 was 52.1 percent (the lowest percent of his Major League career). He also posted a 1.96 GB/FB ratio and owned a line-drive percentage of 21.3 percent, the second highest percentage of his Major League career (which explains his drop in groundball percentage).
Now, you think that Davis, a speed demon on the base paths, would have similar groundball numbers to Lewis, right? Not exactly. Davis' highest groundball percentage in his career was 48.2 percent in 2008 (Lewis has never had a groundball percentage under 52.1 percent), and last year he only hit the ball on the ground 45.6 percent of the time.
To make matters worse, Davis sports an unusually high fly ball rate as a speedster (he had a 34.4 percent fly ball percentage last year, while Lewis had only a 26.5 percent fly ball percentage). That doesn't bode well concerning his skill set, and therefore, it would not be surprising to see his BABIP fall in 2010, which would crash Davis' offensive numbers back to earth.
2. Lewis' "patient" approach at the plate is better than Davis' "free-swinging" mentality.
The most interesting numbers in the Davis and Lewis comparison have to come in terms of plate patience.
Davis posted better numbers at the plate in 2009 in comparison to Lewis, there is no doubt about that. However, even though his numbers were impressive, his plate approach might not be conducive to consistent success. As for Lewis, while he might frustrate fans who are used to seeing the Giants' "free-swinging" hitters, his patient, more efficient plate approach might produce more consistent success in the long-run in comparison to Davis.
In 2009, Lewis had a four percent advantage in walk percentage (10.7 percent for Lewis, 6.7 percent for Davis) and even though he had a much higher strikeout rate than Davis in 2009 (28.5 to 17.9 percent), Lewis still had a better BB/K ratio (0.43) than Davis (0.41).
Also, Lewis' disciplined approach at the plate was evident in 2009, especially in comparison to Davis. Lewis only swung at 19.4 percent of pitches outside the strike zone last year. As for Davis? He swung at 30.6 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. (For a team that has had players swing at pitches that actually hit them in games, I think the Giants would benefit from Lewis' more disciplined approach rather than Davis' hacking mentality.)
Davis may have gotten to have more hits to fall for him in 2009 in comparison to Lewis. However, if he doesn't improve his free-swinging approach and understand the strike zone better in 2010, then it is highly likely that his stats will look closer to his 2008 numbers (e.g. mediocre) rather than his impressive 2009 ones.
3. Davis will have less opportunity to succeed in 2010 than in 2009.
Lewis will have a tough time cracking the lineup in 2010. Every Giants fans pretty much acknowledges that, even Lewis himself. He is playing behind Mark Derosa, Eugenio Velez, Andres Torres and John Bowker in left field going into Spring Training, and therefore, he will need to make the most of his opportunities this Spring Training if he wants to stay on the Giants' 25-man active roster come April. As for Davis, he seems to be the main man in center field for the A's in 2010.
Or at least that's what everyone thinks. In all honesty though, he will have little room for error once the season starts in April. This off-season, the A's signed Coco Crisp and they still have the highly-touted Ryan Sweeney, whom many people project to have a better season than both Davis and Crisp in 2010.
So, if anything, it is very plausible to think that Davis is capable of being Fred Lewis ala 2009. There are a lot of solid, if not better options around him (think Schierholtz, Velez for Lewis in 2009 and Crisp, Sweeney for Davis in 2010), and considering the A's have a lot less invested in Davis than they do in Sweeney or Crisp, Davis is a very expendable player despite his solid 2009.
Can Davis handle the pressure of being the front runner after coming out of nowhere in 2009? Can he produce a good enough start to keep off guys like Crisp or Sweeney, whom A's fans will easily clamor for if Davis does not produce in 2010 like he did in 2009?
Now, we won't know until the season starts, but if I have to guess, it wouldn't be surprising to see Davis be a scapegoat for A's fans in 2010 like Lewis was a scapegoat for Giants fans in 2009.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
On the Fringe: Where Do Five San Francisco Giants Players Stand?
From Bleacher Report
With new additions Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa signed, and Freddy Sanchez and Juan Uribe re-signed this offseason by San Francisco Giants General Manager Brian Sabean, the Giants seem to be a brand new team offensively going into next year.
Granted, while these signings seem to blend into Sabean's unending trend of signing veterans that are perhaps on the decline of their careers, on paper, the acquisitions done by Sabean and his management team have to be considered an improvement (I guess).
That being said, these latest moves make things very interesting come this Spring Training for five players who will be on the fringe of making the 25-man roster, perhaps even the 40-man roster: Eugenio Velez, Fred Lewis, John Bowker, Travis Ishikawa and Andres Torres.
Case No. 1: Eugenio Velez. Position: LF, UTL
Eugenio Velez had a solid start after his call-up in late July. However, after being moved permanently to the leadoff position, and seeing playing time everyday, he effectively cooled off and put up rather mediocre stats.
Last season, Velez finished with five home runs, a .267 batting average, and a .708 OPS. While Velez did have 11 stolen bases, he was caught five times, not a good percentage for a base-stealer.
According to Velez's Bill James and CHONE projections for next season, the lanky 27-year-old from the Dominican Republic, most likely will not improve much upon his numbers from a season ago.
CHONE only projects a four point improvement in his OPS, and Bill James actually believes his OPS will drop seven points. And this is also considering that Velez's OPS is pretty awful to being with, especially for a guy expected to bat leadoff.
The only shining grace? Velez is expected to improve his BB/K ratio in both projections. In Bill James, he is expected to improve by 10 points, while he is expected to improve by five points according CHONE. Granted, at 0.29 last year, Velez really has nowhere to go but up.
As far as Velez's future with the Giants? It doesn't look good. DeRosa made things bad, but Huff makes things almost impossible for Velez to continue his playing career in San Francisco.
Prediction: If he has a great (and key word: GREAT) Spring Training, then maybe he could make the roster. However, unless DeRosa gets hurt or Huff falls off the face of the earth, Velez most likely will be gone by May at the latest.
Case No. 2: Fred Lewis. Position: LF
Fred Lewis' future was already in heavy doubt last season, when Nate Schierholtz's surprisingly good offensive numbers in May put him on the bench. Furthermore, he lost even more ground when Velez put up his hot streak in late July and early August.
That being said, Lewis seems to be one of their best outfield options mainly for one reason: his OBP.
The Giants ranked last in OBP last year, and according to Jack Moore of Fangraphs, Lewis may be the Giants' best option when it comes to offense. Lewis had a .348 OBP last year, and according to Bill James and CHONE projections, he is expected to put up a .351 and .344 OBP, respectively.
Couple that with increases in his stolen bases (BJ projects him to steal 13 bases, CHONE projects 11, both projections up from the eight he had last year) and home runs (BJ and CHONE have him at seven and eight, respectively) and Lewis seems to be an enticing option.
However, the Huff signing definitely seems to put a wrench in Lewis' future. With Huff most likely playing first base (unless Bud Selig decides to add the DH in the National League), DeRosa probably will get bumped into left field.
That leaves a unique backup situation in Left Field among Lewis, Velez, John Bowker and Andres Torres. Bowker most likely will go to Triple-A to start the season, and Torres may be better utilized in Center as a backup to Rowand. Thus, the battle is between Velez and Lewis.
If you go by last year, Velez probably will gain more favor by some fans because of his spectacular couple of weeks when he was on fire. That being said, if you are a more knowledgeable fan, Lewis should be the go-to guy because of his consistency.
He wasn't awful, but he wasn't fantastic by any measure. The main question is which aspect is manager Bruce Bochy more impressed with: Velez's brief, spectacular play? Or Lewis' slightly above average consistency?
Prediction: Lewis most likely will get the boot unless he has a great Spring Training. Unlike Velez, there probably is actually a decent market for Lewis (because of his plate patience and decent speed), and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Giants get some return on Lewis by or right before the end of Spring Training.
Whatever happens, seeing Lewis in a Giants uniform by Opening Day isn't a strong possibility.
Case No. 3: John Bowker. Position: OF, 1B
Bowker is coming off a pretty lousy stint last season at the Major League level. He hit .194, posted a .620 OPS and a 0.22 BB/K ratio in 31 games last year with the Giants. However, Bowker is coming off an impressive campaign in Fresno last season where he hit .342, with 21 home runs, and posted a 1.047 OPS and 1.16 BB/K ratio. Basically. Bowker was the best player in the Giants Triple-A team, and he did this all in 104 games as well.
Therefore, that begs Giants fans to ask this question: is Bowker another Todd Linden, a guy who can hit 30 home runs in Triple-A, but do jack at the Major League level? Or is he a player that just needs the right opportunity to show what he can do?
Bowker has shown some success with the Giants. In 2008, he got off to a hot start and hit 10 home runs in a 111 games. That being said, he has really struggled in terms of plate patience. While his BB/K numbers were incredible last year in Fresno, they still were mediocre in 2008 at 0.26.
There is no question Bowker has some pop with the bat. In addition, there is no question that Bowker really doesn't have much else to prove at the Minor League level. However, the question is will he get a shot next year? Or will he continue to only be able to knock Triple-A pitching out of the park. He can play all three outfield positions (though left is really his only position), not to mention first base, but with all those positions already filled to the brim, Bowker might not get the opportunity unless somebody get injured.
Prediction: Bowker could get a shot, but only if somebody ahead of him such as Huff or Derosa fails miserably first. At that point, the season will be already lost, so who knows what could happen to Bowker.
Case No. 4: Travis Ishikawa. Position: 1B
Ishikawa is screwed. Plain and simple. With the Derosa signing, there was already widespread thought that Pablo Sandoval was going to move to first base to allow room for Derosa to play third. Now with Huff on the team, Sandoval will not only play third, but he most likely will play backup at first when Huff needs a spell.
The only role it seems Ishikawa will have on the Giants will be in terms of a defensive replacement. That is quite a shame considering the progress Ishikawa made as a Giant last year.
Last year, despite a putrid start and awful road numbers, he put up nine home runs, and a .715 OPS in 120 games last year in San Francisco. And if that isn't enough, his projections are pretty generous. Bill James projects him to hit 13 home runs, drive in 56 RBI, post a .772 RBI and improve his BB/K ratio to 0.44 (10 points). CHONE projects similar home run numbers (13) and RBI totals (50) and also projects him to make a massive jump in his OPS (.762), though not so much in terms of his BB/K ratio (only 0.35, a one point improvement).
I know Ishikawa is going to be a high strikeout guy. And, though he improved throughout the course of his year, he probably won't ever be a high walk guy either. That being said, Ishikawa's power most likely will improve (mainly because he can't put up putrid road numbers again like he did last year) and you can't really put up a true number of how valuable he is defensively.
Too bad Bochy doesn't know that.
Prediction: Huff's signing almost guarantees Ishikawa starting out in Triple-A Fresno. Only if Huff and Derosa falter simultaneously will Ishikawa get a serious shot at the starting job in 2010, and that probably won't come until mid-season. I mean, Bochy hit Molina in the cleanup despite his sub. 300 OBP.
Case No. 5: Andres Torres. Position: OF
Torres was an incredible surprise last year for the Giants. Despite not playing at the Major League level since 2005, Torres put up a .876 OPS, and stole six bases (and only got caught once). Furthermore, he hit .270 and six home runs in only 75 games, and a 170 plate appearances. This was a guy that had only one career home run at the Major League level prior to 2009.
So, it's safe to say, 2009 was a bit of a breakout season for the tiny, speedy Torres.
However, the question is whether or not he can do it again?
So far, the projections aren't optimistic that he will be able to build on his surprising 2009 season. First off, he's not exactly young (he'll be 32 next season) and he has such a small sample at the Major League level prior to 2009. Bill James predicts that he will have drops in batting average, OBP, and OPS (from. 270 to .264, .343 to .330, and .876 to .731, respectively). CHONE is even more pessimistic. They expect a 22 point dip in average (to .248), a 163 point drop in OPS (.713) and nearly double the amount of strikeouts (from 45 to 87).
The only optimistic stats concerning Torres projections? Similar home run numbers from a year ago (both BJ and CHONE project him to hit six home runs) and an increase in his BB/K ratio (from 0.36 in 2009 to 0.39 and 0.37 in 2010 according to BJ and CHONE respectively).
Granted, the offense may not be Torres most endearing quality. Torres is an incredible defender that was made to cover the sparse outfield at AT&T Park. Furthermore, with six stolen bases and getting caught only once, Torres is not only a speedy base stealer, but he's an efficient one to boot, a quality that makes him a more enticing commodity than Velez, who isn't nearly as efficient.
Prediction: With an ability to play left and center, and with Aaron Rowand on thin ice after an atrocious year last season, Torres is a safe bet to make the squad in 2010. At the very least, he will fill a Dave Roberts "ala 2004 with the Boston Red Sox" role where he will be used as a late inning defensive reserve and pinch hitter for the Giants.
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