Flash In the Pan or Potential Rebound? A Look at Pat Burrell with the Giants

After being called up on June 6th from Fresno (which sent down John Bowker to the Grizzlies in the process), Pat Burrell has made quite the splash in the Bay Area.

In 10 games and 31 plate appearances so far, Burrell is hitting .407 with two home runs, five RBI and has a wOBA of .497 and a wRAA of 4.3. That is a vast improvement from his tenure in Tampa this season, where he hit only two home runs and posted a batting average of .202 and a wOBA of .283 in 96 plate appearances.

However, how real is this start from Burrell? Is it real like Brad Penny's arrival last season with the Giants? Or is Burrell most likely going to hit a skid, and fall back to the numbers he put up in 146 games with the Rays? And, what does Burrell in the lineup mean for the rest of this Giants roster?

First off, I'm really not sure about Burrell's start. First off, you have to look at the BB and K numbers in Tampa and in San Francisco this season.

Tampa: 10.4 percent (BB percentage), 33.3 percent (K percentage), 0.36 (BB/K ratio) in 96 plate appearances.

San Francisco: 9.7 percent (BB percentage), 14.8 percent (K percentage), 0.75 (BB/K ratio) in 31 plate appearances.

Burrell's career strikeout percentage is 28.2 percent, so for Giants fans to think the 14.8 percent strikeout percentage is going to hover around that number for this rest of the season is foolish thinking. That being said, he does have a 0.60 career BB/K ratio, and his 9.7 percent BB percentage is comforting. Giants fans should definitely get used to seeing Burrell strikeout a little more often as he gets more playing time (another indicator: his 88.9 percent contact rate so far; Burrell has a career contact rate of 77.9), but if he can keep his walk percentage high (which he even did in Tampa), he is totally capable of putting up respectable BB/K numbers, which would make him tolerable in the lineup at the very least.

Some other numbers that are interesting to look in terms of Burrell's arrival to San Francisco are his batted ball numbers. Burrell has a 20.8 percent line drive percentage and a 28.6 percent HR/FB ratio. To put those percentages in perspective, Burrell had sub-20 line drive rates in Tampa (17.3 percent in 2009 and 15.8 percent in 2010) and sub-10 HR/FB rates as well (9.8 percent last year, 7.4 percent this year in Tampa).

The line drive percentage is a good indicator of things to come, since it is close to his career average which is 20.7 percent. As for the HR/FB ratio, it's definitely impossible in terms of being sustained, but I do believe he can at the very least, post a HR/FB ratio over 10 percent for the remainder of the season with the Giants. After all, he never had a HR/FB ratio under 12.6 percent prior to his arrival in Tampa, and his career HR/FB percentage is 16 percent. Granted, you have to remember that was in Philadelphia at a hitter-friendly ballpark, but even so, his career HR/FB numbers prior to Tampa are impressive regardless of team and ballpark.

Of course, while I'm happy with Burrell's start, I'm not totally on the Bandwagon yet. Since coming to San Francisco, the Giants have played Burrell in games against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Oakland, and Baltimore. With the exception of the Reds all those teams are pretty poor (only the Reds have a winning record entering today), and with the exception of Oakland, the pitching staffs are mediocre (only the A's ranked higher than 22nd in MLB in terms of team ERA).

I am interested to see how Burrell will perform against the tougher pitching staffs in the NL West (San Diego, Colorado and Los Angeles rank 1st, 5th and 14th respectively in terms of team ERA). It's one thing for Burrell to feast on the Orioles and Reds. However, if Burrell can come up big against the NL West, than he certainly will prove that he was a worthwhile pickup.

In terms of Burrell's effect on the roster, it may not be as bad as it seems. After tweaking his wrist in a rehab game in Fresno, it looks like Mark Derosa may require surgery and may be done for the season. Furthermore, the Giants may be more apt to bench the struggling Aaron Rowand more often, which will give more center field opportunities to Andres Torres, who will definitely make up for Burrell's defensive shortcomings (career minus-44.6 UZR in the outfield for Burrell).

Granted, the increase in playing time does hurt a few players. John Bowker is probably destined for Fresno the rest of the season (though if he can regain his confidence, he may be able to bounce back...he's off to a good start so far) and Nate Schierholtz may be regulated to the bench duty he received last year, which is unfortunate because Schierholtz is good defensively (career 20.9 UZR) and is much better at the plate this year in comparison to last season (.301 wOBA last year; .323 wOBA this season).

What could be the saving grace for Schierholtz? The Giants designate Bengie Molina for assignment, put Buster Posey behind the plate, move Aubrey Huff back to his natural position of first base, and put Torres in Center and Schierholtz in right, with Burrell in left, which won't be so bad because the Giants will have two plus defenders in left and right (Torres and Schierholtz's combined OF UZR this season is 16.2). The Giants will have a solid defense, without sacrificing any of the offense.

Pat "The Bat" (God I hate that nickname) is hitting well so far in San Francisco, and while I don't think he'll put up the incredible numbers he put up from 2005-2008, I think he can provide similar production to Huff at the very least. Additionally, Burrell could make this lineup work if manager Bruce Bochy can tool this lineup the right way (Which would involve Torres and Nate in, and Molina and Rowand out).

Let's hope as Giants fans Bruce Bochy can realize that and make it happen. For the first time since Barry Bonds left, the Giants offense might actually have the opportunity to be pretty decent.

Buster Posey Up From Fresno! At-Bat Analysis Later Tonight

Being a fan who has resided in two different areas out of the Giants area for the past five years (four years in Spokane and one year so far in Los Angeles), I don't get to go to many games at AT&T Park. I long for the day when I finally am able to reside in the Bay Area and get season tickets or get enough money to purchase MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings annually. For the time being though, I have to deal with this reality of following the team from afar.

Well, in my first game of the 2010 season at AT&T Park, I will be able to see the player I have pined for all season: Buster Posey.

According to Andrew Baggarly's blog Extra Baggs, Posey is slated to start at first base tonight with Aubrey Huff moving to left. Now, I'm not so keen about this move on paper. First off, Bengie Molina is not a serviceable Major League catcher anymore (as I have noted in a post yesterday), so I don't know why the Giants cut ties with him or somehow work out a trade. I mean, Molina is poor defensively, has no power and kills the team with his lack of speed. Sure, Timmy is comfortable with him, but you know what? You're going to have to get used to Posey at some point. Why not start sooner than later?

Furthermore, I'm not sure about Huff in left. Huff has only played nine total games in his career in left field, so I wonder if he's going to be able to make the adjustment to the outfield after getting comfortable at first base this season (Huff's 0.5 UZR/150 has been a surprise, especially considering his career UZR at first base is minus-11.8). What makes the situation worse is the fact that Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker are going to be the odd men out. Because of Bruce Bochy's love for Aaron Rowand (and his .286 wOBA), Schierholtz is going to lose playing time because the Giants can't afford to bench Andres Torres, who has become the Giants' leadoff hitter. It's tough to stomach because Schierholtz has been so good defensively in his career and offensively he has stepped up nicely this year (his .340 wOBA and 0.77 BB/K ratio show that).

As for Bowker, he has struggled this year, no doubt (.276 wOBA). However, Bowker needs more playing time and has shown at time that he is on the cusp of turning it around should he be given more at-bats. With Posey up and Pat Burrell apparently on the move to the Bay Area, it almost seems like a given that Bowker is destined for Fresno real soon.

Overall, I'm happy Brian Sabean decided to suck it up and call up Posey. I hope soon enough the Giants management will come to their senses and either bench or designate Molina for assignment and put Posey behind the plate, which will keep Torres and Schierholtz in the outfield, and give the Giants their best lineup overall (both offensively and defensively).

It will definitely be interesting in the long-run. For the short term now, I'm just excited to see Posey play in person for the first time. Expect an at-bat analysis for Posey later tonight or early tomorrow after I come back home from AT&T Park.

Bad Month or Bad Overall? A Look at the Giants' Offensive Numbers

The San Francisco Giants are currently 22-21 after the Oakland A's completed a three-game sweep at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium (God I hate writing the whole name...I'll just call it the OAC from now on). Panic mode has officially reared its ugly head with Giants fans, and I hate to admit it, but I've hopped on that bandwagon somewhat as well.

However, as a baseball fan, I try to be objective. I look at the numbers and try to keep things in context. I understand Bengie Molina currently has an OBP of .361 and a 0.85 BB/K ratio. That being said, Molina has a career 0.43 BB/K ratio and OBP of .309, so to think he's going to maintain those levels over the full course of a season in my mind is unrealistic.

The same thinking goes with this entire Giants offense. I know. They are coming off two straight sweeps to two, average ballclubs (Arizona and Oakland). Injuries and ineffectiveness have hit this Giants roster hard, and there seems to be increasing pressure on general manager Brian Sabean to make a move, especially with guys like Pat Burrell available. (I'm sure Sabes is "working around the clock" on this; I can picture his reaction if you ask him if he's working on getting an offensive player.)

But how bad has the Giants offense been? Well...let's take a look at the more advanced numbers.

OPS: .722 (19th in MLB).
wOBA (weighted on base average): .319 (19th in MLB).
wRC (runs created based on wOBA): 179 (tied for 21st in MLB).
wRAA (runs above average based on wOBA): minus-9 (19th in MLB).
BABIP (batting average of balls put in play): .299 (tied for 19th in MLB).
ISO (Isolated Power): .136 (21st in MLB).

As you can see, the Giants during the first two months haven't been just below league average. They have had trouble scoring runs (like last year), which hasn't been helped by their relative lack of power (the ISO number I think is the particular killer) or their lineup choices (batting Aaron Rowand at leadoff for so long was a mistake, especially considering his minus-1.7 wRAA is third worst of Giants hitters with 50 or more plate appearances).

However, while the numbers after 43 games certainly isn't in the Giants hitters' favor, you have to look at the month of May specifically. Some interesting numbers pop up.

OPS: .670 (25th in MLB).
wOBA: .298 (25th in MLB).
wRC: 72 (27th in MLB).
wRAA: minus-18 (25th in MLB).
BABIP: .275 (26th in MLB).
ISO: .130 (20th in MLB).

The Giants have been tremendously worse in May, with the only category better than their overall season averages being the ISO, which actually isn't too bad (or at least for Giants standards). The wOBA, wRC and wRAA numbers are particularly disheartening, but I think Giants fans can take comfort in one stat:

The .275 BABIP.

Now, BABIP can mean a variety of things. The Giants could be unlucky (which most certainly has been the case considering their 19.1 percent line drive percentage in May is 12th best in the league) or they just have bumped into very good defensive teams (the Padres, Diamondbacks and Mets, three teams the Giants have played in May, all have solid UZR/150 numbers this year).

However, in all likelihood the BABIP is going to rise or at the very least, fluctuate (the Giants had a .317 BABIP in April) as the season progresses, which will in turn, affect the Giants' offensive numbers. I don't think the Giants are going to top the Majors in offense in a given month anytime soon, but at the same time, I don't think the Giants are going to have as bad a month offensively as they have had this May.

Granted, how is that BABIP going to change? Who knows. The Giants will get luckier, they will face "clunkier" defensive teams (the Dodgers and Rockies have negative UZR/150 numbers, with the Dodgers having the worst UZR/150 in the Majors at negative-15.4) and guys will turn it around and bust out of their respective slumps (crossing my fingers now for Pablo Sandoval). I think those are the best (if only) things Giants fans, management and players can hope for at this point.

Now, Giants fans have to keep things in perspective. The Giants are not a well-built team offensively. Mark Derosa has been a major disappointment (he has a team-worst .243 wOBA), and Molina and Rowand have been deceivingly tolerable (Molina's wOBA at .328 proves that he isn't much better from last season; Rowand's wRAA says it all). And, while Freddy Sanchez has just gotten back from the disabled list, I'm not optimistic about him living up to that $12 million contract if he has more performances like the one he had today (0-for-4, 2 SO).

The Giants have some good pieces though (Andres Torres, who has a .383 wOBA and Aubrey Huff and his .354 wOBA has been a surprise as well), and the offense can still be good enough to remain competitive in the NL West (especially considering their pitching, which has still remained solid...sans the middle relief).

After all, if you look at the division-leading Padres, they rank below the Giants in nearly every offensive category in May, but their BABIP still hovers at .300. When the Padres hit a bad stretch of luck (which they will), it is likely that they will free fall in the standings as well.

It has been a disappointing start to the season, especially when you factor in the poor starts Colorado and Los Angeles got off to. However, the Giants have an opportunity to stay in it, and I think the numbers above show that the Giants have suffered some bad luck and poor management decisions, which I don't think (or at least hope) will happen again. With manager Bruce Bochy mixing up the lineup (and in a good way too), I think there is potential for the Giants to improve those offensive categories a little bit come June.

Will the improvement offensively in the long run by the Giants hitters be enough to win a World Series or NL Pennant? Most likely not. Will it be enough to win the NL West or earn a playoff spot? Maybe. Will it be enough to stay competitive in the NL West?

When you got pitchers like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation...absolutely.

Around the "Candlestick": Huff Analysis, Prospect Rankings, Roster Talk, Offense Musings

Decided to post some pieces I found on the Internet about the Giants that were interesting. Definitely gives me a nice break to not actually do some original "extensive" writing for a change. Come on. I do enough work on this blog posting as it is. Give me a break! I'll let Harrison Ford voice my feelings. (BTW Thanks Bill Simmons!)

Aubrey Huff Analysis on Fangraphs

I really respect and love the Web site Fangraphs, a sabermetrics heavy baseball site (you can get all kinds of advance statistics on players; it's pretty much an easier to navigate Baseball Prospectus in my mind). Anyways, Jack Moore of Fangraphs posted an interesting article on the Giants' acquisition of Aubrey Huff. Basically, we shared the same feelings: he was less than thrilled about Brian Sabean's acquistion.


John Sickels Top 20 Giants Prospects

This was posted almost two months ago, but due to certain circumstances, I wasn't able to see it until now. Some things I like: Buster Posey and Thomas Neal at the top of the list. Some things I expected: Conor Gillaspie near the bottom. Things that make me a little queasy: Sickels "less than thrilled" attitude concerning Dan Runzler and Waldis Joaquin (both whom I love).

Roster Thoughts from McCovey Chronicles

I went a little off on the McCovey Chronicles a couple of days ago in my Huff Post. I didn't really mean it though. I think was just more upset by the constant Ishikawa bashing than anything else. Really. I love this blog. You know that scene where Jeanne Tripplehorn is crying when she is ex-communicated from the Church of Latter Day Saints in the show "Big Love"? Yeah, that would be me if I was barred from that Giants blog. My favorite blog on the Giants period (other than this one of course...sorry I'm vain).


Some Thoughts on the Giants Offense for 2010

Satchel Price of Beyond the Box Score posted a piece musing on the offense of the Giants going into the 2010 season. In summary, it's probably the most optimistic thing I've seen about the Giants offense in quite some time. There are some things he did point out I didn't agree with (he mentioned that he believes Aaron Rowand is due for a breakout year, while I think Rowand can improve, but only because last year was so atrocious), but for the most part, it makes you think good things about the Giants offense around Pablo Sandoval for a change. If you're a Giants fans, read this and keep it bookmarked for when you're feeling blue.