So, with the polls now closed, I figured it would be nice to recap some of the polls and kind of throw my own two cents on the results. A couple of new polls will be up this week, so it'll be more fodder for people to play with here on the blog.
Question 1: Who has the Best Farm System in the NL West?
San Francisco Giants: 8 votes (30 percent)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 10 votes (38 percent)
Colorado Rockies: 2 votes (7 percent)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 0 votes (0 percent)
San Diego Padres: 6 votes (23 percent)
Total votes: 26
OTF's Take: With pitchers Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley heading the list, it makes sense why the Diamondbacks were voted with having the best system in the NL West. Initially, I put the Padres because I liked the Yonder Alonso-Yasmani Grandal combo, but in terms of top-end talent, the Padres do compare in comparison to the Diamondbacks. Considering the need for pitching and the ballpark factors that favor hitters, legitimate pitching prospects are a need in the Arizona system, and they seem to have that in the three-headed monster of Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley.
The Giants got a lot of votes, but I'm not sure they would have gotten so many had this been a neutral-site. I like Gary Brown and Joe Panik, but beyond that and the system is very questionable. I would argue that the Rockies have the third best system in the NL West with the Giants following very closely behind. That being said, a lot of the prospects in the Giants system are pretty raw, so I think the Giants could pull into third place should they get some solid performances from some guys in the lower minors.
As for the Dodgers, they're the best team in the NL West right now (no thanks to Matt Kemp), but the system is looking thin with the graduation of Kenley Jansen, Javy Guerra and Dee Gordon. Zach Lee is a legit prospect, but he seems a few years away and after Lee, their system is pretty questionable. With a new ownership group though, I expect that to change dramatically in the next couple of years.
Question No. 2: Who is the Giants' No. 1 Prospect in 2012?
Gary Brown: 31 votes (72 percent)
Joe Panik: 2 votes (4 percent)
Tommy Joseph: 2 votes (4 percent)
Heath Hembree: 3 votes (6 percent)
Andrew Susac: 1 vote (2 percent)
Francisco Peguero: 0 votes (0 percent)
Kyle Crick: 1 vote (0 percent)
Eric Surkamp: 2 votes (4 percent)
Other: 2 votes (4 percent)
Total votes: 43
OTF's Take: Not a big surprise here considering Brown is the consensus top prospect according to almost every publication and blog (with Seedlings 2 Stars being the lone exception; they rank Surkamp higher than Brown which to me, is ridiculous). At 72 percent, it is obvious that Giants fans are as hopeful as most analysts out there when it comes to Brown's future. He's off to a slow start, but even now, Brown still remains the Giants' best prospect by a wide margin.
Hembree comes in at second with three votes and with the injury to Brian Wilson, Hembree could see some time in the Giants bullpen by June. He already made the transition to Fresno a couple of weeks ago, so it's obvious that the Giants are looking for him to contribute to the Big League club sooner rather than later. Panik, Joseph and Surkamp come in at second with two votes each and Susac and Crick follow with one vote. The most surprising non-vote getter was Peguero who received none. I find this surprising because Jonathan Mayo ranked Peguero No. 99 in his Top-100 MLB prospects list going into 2012.
In terms of the other, I'm guessing Ehire Adrianza and Hector Sanchez were the one who garnered the votes. I like both of them, but at the same time, they aren't in the same tier as Brown and not even in the same tier as Hembree, Panik and Joseph. That being said, Sanchez is holding his own as the Giants' backup catcher, so he's off to a good start to begin 2012, even if he is now technically graduated as a prospect.
Showing posts with label Minor Leagues. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minor Leagues. Show all posts
Monday, April 23, 2012
Monday, April 9, 2012
Around the Horn: S2S Opening Day Recaps, WTGCTT Lines, Age vs. Level at MCC, Giants Window at BTB, Advanced Stats at MLC
Have a lot of work to catch up on, but wanted to do a quick post here at OTF. I just realized I haven't shot out a lot of links lately, and I figured it would be a good time to throw out some interesting pieces I have read over the past week and share it with people who follow it here. The list complies of a nice array of pieces from some Giants-centric, and just general baseball blogs out there on the Web.
Seedlings 2 Stars Minor League Opening Day Coverage
If you haven't checked it out on the blogroll, please check out the work at Seedlings 2 Stars. It's a Minor League blog run by the FanSided network. Wally Fish runs the baseball side of things and keeps things going at S2S, and they have some great writers who contribute to the site. Nathaniel Stoltz, whom I was a big fan of during his Bleacher Report days, used to write for the site and helped start it, but it seems like he has gone away from the site and is doing something different. Wally asked me to write for the site, and I have contributed three pieces so far: a look at the top Latin American position and pitching prospects from the NL West, and a Opening Day recap of the Sally.
I'm still figuring out my role with the site (kinda tough to write as freely as I do here with so many other writers contributing and being new to the staff), but I expect to write 2-3 times a week for the site on general minor league and perhaps scouting stuff (I would like to delve into more foreign and Latin America scouting pieces, since it doesn't seem anybody on the site has claimed a stake or expertise in that area to my knowledge). So, for now, don't expect much "general" minor league or scouting stuff on this site for the time being (the DPL Profiles and Draft looks I'll probably save for S2S), but that could be a good thing as it will allow me to focus more on being "Giants-centric" here at OTF.
When the Giants Come to Town Begins It's Grind
If you want to look at the most committed Giants blogger (and especially Minor League blogger on the net), look no further than Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town. With the start of the Minor and Major League seasons, Dr. B has started his daily recaps, which highlight top performers from every Giants Minor League team in action that night. While McCovey Chronicles does the same thing with poster Steve S, I really do enjoy Dr. B's take on the Minor League standouts each night. It has become daily reading for me, and definitely has made things easier here at OTF. Don't know how he manages to teach in college while still posting as much as he does!
Age vs. Level by Roger at McCovey Chronicles (Part I and Part II)
One of the most ambitious "Giants-centric" pieces I have read in a long time, this two-part series by Roger is so good that I am in the middle of reading it over again to sink it all in. Complete with thorough writing and graphs to back it up, Roger at McC takes a look at how teenagers who break in at A-Ball end up as Major League players in comparison to players who break into A-Ball at higher ages (such as college guys for example). It is an interesting piece to read, especially when you consider the Giants' draft strategy for the past decade or so (favoring low-ceiling, low-risk college guys in comparison to higher-ceiling, higher-risk teens). It isn't something that will take you a couple of minutes, but it's an engrossing read and one of the more enjoyable pieces on McCovey Chronicles I have encountered on the Fan Posts section in a long time.
David Fung's "Visual Look" at the Giants Window to Compete at Beyond the Box Score
I have loved Fung's graphical take on "the Window", which was a phrase used by Billy Beane explaining the Athletics plan and how their time to compete was in limited spurts during his tenure there due to the Small Market and limited budget (Jonah Keri wrote an interesting piece on it for Grantland that refuted Beane's position). Fung's graphs are always great, and the pieces give a nice general glance of what teams (the Giants in the case) will be dealing with not only now, but four to five years down the line. If you can, check out the others, just to see what the "windows" to compete are like for the other teams in Major League Baseball.
Minor League Central
It kills me that I haven't found this site earlier, but Minor League Central is basically to Minor League Ball what Fangraphs is to Major League Ball. While the site's creators and analysts note that not all of the data is completely accurate (they are subject to the recorders of the numbers, whom they admit are less accurate at the lower levels), it does give a little bit more "advanced" numbers from players who are currently in the Minor Leagues. Expect me to use more numbers from MLC in future posts (though I have already started), and I can't begin to tell you how enthralled I am that a site like this exists on the Web. I'm about as excited as Chris Farley was when one of his "comrades" told the "Sheep Pudding" story around the camp fire in the movie "Amost Heroes."
Seedlings 2 Stars Minor League Opening Day Coverage
If you haven't checked it out on the blogroll, please check out the work at Seedlings 2 Stars. It's a Minor League blog run by the FanSided network. Wally Fish runs the baseball side of things and keeps things going at S2S, and they have some great writers who contribute to the site. Nathaniel Stoltz, whom I was a big fan of during his Bleacher Report days, used to write for the site and helped start it, but it seems like he has gone away from the site and is doing something different. Wally asked me to write for the site, and I have contributed three pieces so far: a look at the top Latin American position and pitching prospects from the NL West, and a Opening Day recap of the Sally.
I'm still figuring out my role with the site (kinda tough to write as freely as I do here with so many other writers contributing and being new to the staff), but I expect to write 2-3 times a week for the site on general minor league and perhaps scouting stuff (I would like to delve into more foreign and Latin America scouting pieces, since it doesn't seem anybody on the site has claimed a stake or expertise in that area to my knowledge). So, for now, don't expect much "general" minor league or scouting stuff on this site for the time being (the DPL Profiles and Draft looks I'll probably save for S2S), but that could be a good thing as it will allow me to focus more on being "Giants-centric" here at OTF.
When the Giants Come to Town Begins It's Grind
If you want to look at the most committed Giants blogger (and especially Minor League blogger on the net), look no further than Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town. With the start of the Minor and Major League seasons, Dr. B has started his daily recaps, which highlight top performers from every Giants Minor League team in action that night. While McCovey Chronicles does the same thing with poster Steve S, I really do enjoy Dr. B's take on the Minor League standouts each night. It has become daily reading for me, and definitely has made things easier here at OTF. Don't know how he manages to teach in college while still posting as much as he does!
Age vs. Level by Roger at McCovey Chronicles (Part I and Part II)
One of the most ambitious "Giants-centric" pieces I have read in a long time, this two-part series by Roger is so good that I am in the middle of reading it over again to sink it all in. Complete with thorough writing and graphs to back it up, Roger at McC takes a look at how teenagers who break in at A-Ball end up as Major League players in comparison to players who break into A-Ball at higher ages (such as college guys for example). It is an interesting piece to read, especially when you consider the Giants' draft strategy for the past decade or so (favoring low-ceiling, low-risk college guys in comparison to higher-ceiling, higher-risk teens). It isn't something that will take you a couple of minutes, but it's an engrossing read and one of the more enjoyable pieces on McCovey Chronicles I have encountered on the Fan Posts section in a long time.
David Fung's "Visual Look" at the Giants Window to Compete at Beyond the Box Score
I have loved Fung's graphical take on "the Window", which was a phrase used by Billy Beane explaining the Athletics plan and how their time to compete was in limited spurts during his tenure there due to the Small Market and limited budget (Jonah Keri wrote an interesting piece on it for Grantland that refuted Beane's position). Fung's graphs are always great, and the pieces give a nice general glance of what teams (the Giants in the case) will be dealing with not only now, but four to five years down the line. If you can, check out the others, just to see what the "windows" to compete are like for the other teams in Major League Baseball.
Minor League Central
It kills me that I haven't found this site earlier, but Minor League Central is basically to Minor League Ball what Fangraphs is to Major League Ball. While the site's creators and analysts note that not all of the data is completely accurate (they are subject to the recorders of the numbers, whom they admit are less accurate at the lower levels), it does give a little bit more "advanced" numbers from players who are currently in the Minor Leagues. Expect me to use more numbers from MLC in future posts (though I have already started), and I can't begin to tell you how enthralled I am that a site like this exists on the Web. I'm about as excited as Chris Farley was when one of his "comrades" told the "Sheep Pudding" story around the camp fire in the movie "Amost Heroes."
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Season Preview: San Jose Giants
First off, yes, I'm posting on Easter. Which means one of four things:
1.) I'm away from family and don't have enough money to make the trip back home by road or air
2.) I'm not religious, don't believe in Easter or any God for that matter and like to live a shallow life that is devoid of anything "spiritual."
3.) Am Jewish and celebrated Passover already.
4.) Am at home, but trying to avoid family because well...I'm just an anti-social kind of guy that would rather spend time in front of a computer than with family.
Well, if you guessed one, you would be correct. Two or three wouldn't have been bad choices, simply because I never touch anything religious on this blog, so my religious views have been (and will remain) fairly ambiguous. And as for four, well...you just have to be a jerk to think that, so shame on you. I hope you feel better after you eat your Ham on Easter Sunday.
Bitterness aside, on to the 2012 preview of the San Jose Giants.
2011 Recap:
The San Jose Giants got off to a roaring start to begin the year, as they finished the first half with an unreal record of 51-19, good for the best record in the Cal League overall at the time. The Giants finished the first half 13 games ahead of second place Stockton, and 16 games ahead of third place Bakersfield. Considering the Giants past history of success in the California League (they have been in the title hunt consistently the past five years), the Giants looked primed for another run at the CL championship in 2011.
However, with the callups of Chris Dominguez, Francisco Peguero and Heath Hembree to Richmond by mid-season, a trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets (in the Carlos Beltran) and a mid-season slump by top prospect Gary Brown, the Giants regressed in the second half, going 38-32 over their next 70 games. The Giants did have a chance to win the Northern Division at the end of the year, but they ended up losing out to Stockton in the Northern Division Championship series. Still, at 90-50, it was an impressive year overall for the South Bay Giants, and the fans took notice, as they finished with the second-best attendance in the Cal League.
Offensively, everything began and ended with Brown, whose strong campaign in the Cal League garnered him honors as the Giants' top prospect going into 2012 by almost every publication and analyst. Brown posted a slash of .336/.407/.519 and added a .925 OPS to go along with 14 home runs, 115 runs scored and 53 stolen bases. For his efforts, Brown was named the 2011 Cal League Rookie of the Year and also earned a spot in the Futures Game at All-Star Weekend.
However, Brown wasn't the only bat that stood out in San Jose. Before getting call ups to Fresno and San Francisco, catcher Hector Sanchez went from middling catcher prospect to a Top-10 system guy after lighting up Cal League pitching in only 52 games. The 21-year-old Venezuelan put up a .302/.338/.533 line in 228 plate appearances and also added 11 home runs and 58 RBI to his already gaudy averages. Fellow countryman Ehire Adrianza sparked the Giants offense in the second half after Peguero and Dominguez moved up to Richmond, as the slick-fielding shorstop posted a career best slash of .300/.375/.470 in 262 plate appearances.
While the offense was a force for San Jose in 2011, the pitching was sneakily good, even after they lost Wheeler in the Beltran trade. The Giants pitching staff finished first in the Cal League runs allowed per game at 4.21, which was 0.80 runs better than second place Stockton. San Jose also finished with the league's best team ERA at 3.70 (they were the only CL team under 4.00) and second-best WHIP at 1.33 (only .04 behind first-place Stockton).
While Wheeler was the Giants' most dynamic pitcher in his tenure in San Jose (he struck out 98 in 88 innings pitched), he was far from the best pitcher statistically on the San Jose roster in 2011. The rotation was led by the three-headed-force of Craig Westcott, Chris Heston and Kelvin Marte, who all threw over 145 innings in 2011, and posted sub-4 ERAs (3.42, 3.16, 3.47, respectively). Though he finished a win behind Westcott in the W-L column, Heston was the most impressive of the three as he finished with the best K/BB ratio (3.28), K/9 (7.8), HA/9 (8.6) of the bunch. Heston was 23 years old last year, so he was around league average when it came to age (the average age of CL pitchers was 23.2 last year), but he certainly has the potential to be a strong contributor to the rotation in Richmond in 2012.
After Hembree dominated the CL (21 saves, 0.73 ERA, 16.1 K/9) and predictably earned a call up to the Eastern League, Jake Dunning and Mitch Lively split closer duties to mixed results. While Dunning did earn 10 saves, he posted a 4.74 ERA and allowed 10.2 hits per nine innings. While he did post solid K/BB ratios (2.96), Dunning has to improve his ability to limit contact if he wants to survive in the move to the Eastern League this upcoming season.
As for Lively, though an older prospect at 25 years old, he finished the year with nice numbers, recording 8 saves and posting a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 38 appearances and 17 games finished. Lively will be 26 years old and will bypass Richmond and begin the year in Triple-A Fresno.
Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?
San Jose should be a nice showcase for 2011 Giants draft picks, as catcher Andrew Susac, first baseman Ricky Oropesa, and first round pick, shortstop Joe Panik will all begin the year in the Cal League. So far, the results have been a little mixed for Oropesa and Susac, as they are batting .250 and .231 after three games, respectively. However, it is still VERY early in the season, and they could bounce those numbers up with a solid game today against Modesto.
As for Panik, he is continuing where he left off in the Northwest League, as he is putting up a slash of .400/.538/.600 in 10 at-bats. Panik has recorded two doubles and three walks and no strikeouts going into today's game. As he showed last year in Salem Keizer, Panik's mature skills and approach has illustrated why the Giants took him in the first round of the draft last season (despite the scoffs of many scouts and experts). I expect Panik to really stand out this year and have a breakout season similar to Brown a year ago, though without the speed or home run numbers (though I think he could come close in the home runs and I think their slugging percentages will be similar because of Panik's ability to hit to the gaps).
One of the big under-the-radar prospects to watch for San Jose is Adam Duvall, who is coming off a sensational year in Augusta where he posted a .912 OPS to go along with 22 home runs. Duvall shares a similar prospect profile to Chris Dominguez in the sense that they are both from the University of Louisville and both third base prospects. While he doesn't have the athleticism or plus tools of Dominguez, Duvall's Sally numbers in 2011 were more impressive than Dominguez's 2010. While he hasn't gotten of to the best start (Duvall has struck six times in 12 at-bats and has no walks and only one hit), he could be a key component to this Giants offense in 2012.
Another infield prospect to watch out for will be Carter Jurica, a 2010 draft pick who split last year between the Arizona Rookie League and the Cal League. Jurica posted a .250/.355/.383 slash last year in San Jose, and also added four home runs and five stolen bases. Most of Jurica's value comes defensively, as he has been noted for his solid though unspectacular glove up the middle. He and Panik should provide a very interesting double play combo up the middle, and are expected to rotate between second and shortstop throughout the year.
The outfield will be led Jarett Parker, who'll be making his second tour of duty in the Cal League in 2012. While Parker displayed nice power potential (13 home runs), and a patient approach (.360 OBP, 0.51 BB/K ratio, 74 walks in 571 plate appearances), he struggled in terms of making consistent contact at the plate, as evidenced by his .260 average, 70 percent contact rate, and team-leading 144 strikeouts. I don't expect Parker to stay the whole year in San Jose, as I think he is due for a call up to Richmond at some point this year simply because of his age (he'll be 23). However, he does need to show progress at the plate in terms of making better contact if he wants to be taken more seriously as a prospect. Right now, his stock has regressed since he was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft, and he looks to be way behind outfielder prospects such as Brown and Peguero.
The rest of the outfield looks pretty thin, as Ryan Lollis and Chris Lofton will look to contribute to the Giants lineup. Lollis put up stellar numbers in Augusta last year, posting a slash of .314/.393/.422 and an OPS of .816 in .296 at-bats, but he struggled in call ups to San Jose and Richmond, posting OPS numbers of .627 and .444, respectively. Lofton is a strong athlete who was rated by Baseball America as being the best athlete of any Giants pick other than Brown in the 2010 draft. A ninth round pick, Lofton put up a pedestrian .615 OPS in 418 at-bats in Augusta. He did steal 22 bags with the Green Jackets, but he was caught 14 times, a sign that his instincts on the basepaths aren't that great and are in need of improvement in San Jose. However with his athleticism, Lofton has a lot of potential to be a contributor to this San Jose lineup in 2012.
Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?
Shawn Sanford and Taylor Rogers led the Green Jackets rotation in 2011 and will be expected to do the same in San Jose in 2012. Sanford's 10-10 record doesn't impress, but he did post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 3.57 in the Sally a year ago. Sanford's strength as a pitcher is his control, as he walked only 30 batters in 169.2 innings pitched (good for a BB/9 of 1.7). That being said, while his control, command and ability to keep the ball on the ground to limit hits has been impressive (1.69 GO/AO last year), he doesn't possess overwhelming stuff or strikeout prowess. Last year, his K/9 was only 5.7, a regression from the 8.6 mark he put up in 2010 in Salem Keizer. It'll be interesting to see how well he keeps batters at bay in the Cal League in 2012, especially considering the park factors and t he'll be around league average age-wise for a pitcher at 23 years old. He's off to a good start as he went six innings and allowed only three hits and no runs while walking one and striking out one in his debut start of the 2012 season (which resulted in a win for San Jose credited to Sanford).
As for Rogers, while his 2012 debut wasn't as impressive as Sanford's (he went five innings and allowed seven hits, two runs and a walk; but he did strike out seven and earned the win), he does share a similar profile to Sanford as a pitcher, even though he is a year older. Much like Sanford, Rogers showed good command in Augusta last year (2.26 K/BB ratio) and a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground (2.11 GO/AO ratio last year with the Green Jackets). However, he doesn't blow away hitters (5.0 K/9) and he can prove to be quite hittable (career H/9 of 9.3). While Sanford's age and skills give him a little bit more upside, Rogers could prove to be a good No. 2 guy in the San Jose rotation in 2012.
The Giants will have wild cards on the staff in Stephen Harrold, Seth Rosin, Josh Osich and Edward Concepcion, who will all be in the Giants bullpen to begin the year in 2012 (though Rosin and Osich have starter potential). Harrold was rated as the 25th best prospect in the Giants system, according to Baseball America, and Rosin is a power-armed right hander who has cracked the Top 30 in many lists. Both have showed a strong ability to strike batters out over the course of their minor league careers (Harrold has a minor league career K/9 of 9.3 while Rosin is just a notch below at 9.2), but they don't have very high ceilings as older, polished arms out of college.
Osich is a big wild card because it is unknown if the Giants will keep him in the bullpen or if they might move him into the rotation eventually. Osich started in college at Oregon State (and excelled as he threw a no-hitter against UCLA last year), but he had arm issues that could have been related to TJ surgery in 2009 (which forced him to miss 2010) and was shut down for the remainder of the 2011 season (which ended hurting his draft stock as he fell to the Giants' slot in the sixth round; he originally had first round/supplemental round potential pre-shut down). While it is probably wise to ease Osich into professional pitching by keeping him in the pen to begin the year, I do hope Giants management somehow works him into the rotation at some point this year. He has the ability to start, as evidenced by his track record in college, along with a repertoire that includes a solid fastball that touches 97 MPH, and a slider and changeup that have average to slightly above potential. A move of Osich to the rotation would increase his value significantly, and make him a steal as a sixth-round selection.
A sleeper out of the bullpen to watch out for is Concepcion, as he has showed a strong ability to strike batters out (career 9.1 K/9), but has had significant command and control issues as well. After a disastrous stint in the Northwest League which saw him post a 6.39 ERA and K/BB ratio of 1.24 (a minor league career low, and that includes his stint in the DSL) in 63.1 IP as a starter, Concepcion bounced back with a move to the pen in Augusta and posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.72 K/BB ratio in 52.1 IP. Concepcion still walked hitters in bunches (6.2 BB/9), but he did strike out 10.7 batters per nine innings, his best total in that category since his stint in the Arizona Rookie League (when it was 11.5). If Concepcion can harness his control even a little bit, he could be a very valuable arm in the San Jose bullpen this year, and could see his stock as a prospect rise by the end of the season simply because of his ability to strike batters out.
What Should We Expect from the Giants in 2012?
San Jose has been one of the strengths in the Giants' system "team-wise" for a while. They have consistently competed for Cal League titles while at the same time developing talent that has progressed nicely in their system. Of course, it's always tough to judge prospects (hitters especially) in the Cal League because of the offensive-friendly park factors. We have seen many hitters mash in the Cal League, only to be fully exposed in their transition to the Double-A Eastern League. This year, the offense will attract a lot of attention, especially with 2011 Draft picks Panik, Susac and Oropesa expected to get a lot of at-bats. Past those though (and maybe Duvall), the talent offensively does drop off quite a bit. I'm not a big believe in Lofton, and Jurica seems to be backup material at the Major League level at best. Furthermore, the pitching seems less strong in comparison to years past, as the staff lacks that front line starter they've sported in years past (Wheeler last year, Surkamp two years ago, Bumgarner and Alderson in 2009).
I think San Jose has produced a clubhouse environment where the team will always be competitive and I don't expect that to stop in 2012. However, considering how reliant they will be on offense (and considering this is Susac and Oropesa's first exposure to professional pitching, that's a big risk), and how thin the pitching looks, I expect a big regression for the CL Giants in 2012 from their 90-50 record a year ago.
1.) I'm away from family and don't have enough money to make the trip back home by road or air
2.) I'm not religious, don't believe in Easter or any God for that matter and like to live a shallow life that is devoid of anything "spiritual."
3.) Am Jewish and celebrated Passover already.
4.) Am at home, but trying to avoid family because well...I'm just an anti-social kind of guy that would rather spend time in front of a computer than with family.
Well, if you guessed one, you would be correct. Two or three wouldn't have been bad choices, simply because I never touch anything religious on this blog, so my religious views have been (and will remain) fairly ambiguous. And as for four, well...you just have to be a jerk to think that, so shame on you. I hope you feel better after you eat your Ham on Easter Sunday.
Bitterness aside, on to the 2012 preview of the San Jose Giants.
2011 Recap:
The San Jose Giants got off to a roaring start to begin the year, as they finished the first half with an unreal record of 51-19, good for the best record in the Cal League overall at the time. The Giants finished the first half 13 games ahead of second place Stockton, and 16 games ahead of third place Bakersfield. Considering the Giants past history of success in the California League (they have been in the title hunt consistently the past five years), the Giants looked primed for another run at the CL championship in 2011.
However, with the callups of Chris Dominguez, Francisco Peguero and Heath Hembree to Richmond by mid-season, a trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets (in the Carlos Beltran) and a mid-season slump by top prospect Gary Brown, the Giants regressed in the second half, going 38-32 over their next 70 games. The Giants did have a chance to win the Northern Division at the end of the year, but they ended up losing out to Stockton in the Northern Division Championship series. Still, at 90-50, it was an impressive year overall for the South Bay Giants, and the fans took notice, as they finished with the second-best attendance in the Cal League.
Offensively, everything began and ended with Brown, whose strong campaign in the Cal League garnered him honors as the Giants' top prospect going into 2012 by almost every publication and analyst. Brown posted a slash of .336/.407/.519 and added a .925 OPS to go along with 14 home runs, 115 runs scored and 53 stolen bases. For his efforts, Brown was named the 2011 Cal League Rookie of the Year and also earned a spot in the Futures Game at All-Star Weekend.
However, Brown wasn't the only bat that stood out in San Jose. Before getting call ups to Fresno and San Francisco, catcher Hector Sanchez went from middling catcher prospect to a Top-10 system guy after lighting up Cal League pitching in only 52 games. The 21-year-old Venezuelan put up a .302/.338/.533 line in 228 plate appearances and also added 11 home runs and 58 RBI to his already gaudy averages. Fellow countryman Ehire Adrianza sparked the Giants offense in the second half after Peguero and Dominguez moved up to Richmond, as the slick-fielding shorstop posted a career best slash of .300/.375/.470 in 262 plate appearances.
While the offense was a force for San Jose in 2011, the pitching was sneakily good, even after they lost Wheeler in the Beltran trade. The Giants pitching staff finished first in the Cal League runs allowed per game at 4.21, which was 0.80 runs better than second place Stockton. San Jose also finished with the league's best team ERA at 3.70 (they were the only CL team under 4.00) and second-best WHIP at 1.33 (only .04 behind first-place Stockton).
While Wheeler was the Giants' most dynamic pitcher in his tenure in San Jose (he struck out 98 in 88 innings pitched), he was far from the best pitcher statistically on the San Jose roster in 2011. The rotation was led by the three-headed-force of Craig Westcott, Chris Heston and Kelvin Marte, who all threw over 145 innings in 2011, and posted sub-4 ERAs (3.42, 3.16, 3.47, respectively). Though he finished a win behind Westcott in the W-L column, Heston was the most impressive of the three as he finished with the best K/BB ratio (3.28), K/9 (7.8), HA/9 (8.6) of the bunch. Heston was 23 years old last year, so he was around league average when it came to age (the average age of CL pitchers was 23.2 last year), but he certainly has the potential to be a strong contributor to the rotation in Richmond in 2012.
After Hembree dominated the CL (21 saves, 0.73 ERA, 16.1 K/9) and predictably earned a call up to the Eastern League, Jake Dunning and Mitch Lively split closer duties to mixed results. While Dunning did earn 10 saves, he posted a 4.74 ERA and allowed 10.2 hits per nine innings. While he did post solid K/BB ratios (2.96), Dunning has to improve his ability to limit contact if he wants to survive in the move to the Eastern League this upcoming season.
As for Lively, though an older prospect at 25 years old, he finished the year with nice numbers, recording 8 saves and posting a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 38 appearances and 17 games finished. Lively will be 26 years old and will bypass Richmond and begin the year in Triple-A Fresno.
Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?
San Jose should be a nice showcase for 2011 Giants draft picks, as catcher Andrew Susac, first baseman Ricky Oropesa, and first round pick, shortstop Joe Panik will all begin the year in the Cal League. So far, the results have been a little mixed for Oropesa and Susac, as they are batting .250 and .231 after three games, respectively. However, it is still VERY early in the season, and they could bounce those numbers up with a solid game today against Modesto.
As for Panik, he is continuing where he left off in the Northwest League, as he is putting up a slash of .400/.538/.600 in 10 at-bats. Panik has recorded two doubles and three walks and no strikeouts going into today's game. As he showed last year in Salem Keizer, Panik's mature skills and approach has illustrated why the Giants took him in the first round of the draft last season (despite the scoffs of many scouts and experts). I expect Panik to really stand out this year and have a breakout season similar to Brown a year ago, though without the speed or home run numbers (though I think he could come close in the home runs and I think their slugging percentages will be similar because of Panik's ability to hit to the gaps).
One of the big under-the-radar prospects to watch for San Jose is Adam Duvall, who is coming off a sensational year in Augusta where he posted a .912 OPS to go along with 22 home runs. Duvall shares a similar prospect profile to Chris Dominguez in the sense that they are both from the University of Louisville and both third base prospects. While he doesn't have the athleticism or plus tools of Dominguez, Duvall's Sally numbers in 2011 were more impressive than Dominguez's 2010. While he hasn't gotten of to the best start (Duvall has struck six times in 12 at-bats and has no walks and only one hit), he could be a key component to this Giants offense in 2012.
Another infield prospect to watch out for will be Carter Jurica, a 2010 draft pick who split last year between the Arizona Rookie League and the Cal League. Jurica posted a .250/.355/.383 slash last year in San Jose, and also added four home runs and five stolen bases. Most of Jurica's value comes defensively, as he has been noted for his solid though unspectacular glove up the middle. He and Panik should provide a very interesting double play combo up the middle, and are expected to rotate between second and shortstop throughout the year.
The outfield will be led Jarett Parker, who'll be making his second tour of duty in the Cal League in 2012. While Parker displayed nice power potential (13 home runs), and a patient approach (.360 OBP, 0.51 BB/K ratio, 74 walks in 571 plate appearances), he struggled in terms of making consistent contact at the plate, as evidenced by his .260 average, 70 percent contact rate, and team-leading 144 strikeouts. I don't expect Parker to stay the whole year in San Jose, as I think he is due for a call up to Richmond at some point this year simply because of his age (he'll be 23). However, he does need to show progress at the plate in terms of making better contact if he wants to be taken more seriously as a prospect. Right now, his stock has regressed since he was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft, and he looks to be way behind outfielder prospects such as Brown and Peguero.
The rest of the outfield looks pretty thin, as Ryan Lollis and Chris Lofton will look to contribute to the Giants lineup. Lollis put up stellar numbers in Augusta last year, posting a slash of .314/.393/.422 and an OPS of .816 in .296 at-bats, but he struggled in call ups to San Jose and Richmond, posting OPS numbers of .627 and .444, respectively. Lofton is a strong athlete who was rated by Baseball America as being the best athlete of any Giants pick other than Brown in the 2010 draft. A ninth round pick, Lofton put up a pedestrian .615 OPS in 418 at-bats in Augusta. He did steal 22 bags with the Green Jackets, but he was caught 14 times, a sign that his instincts on the basepaths aren't that great and are in need of improvement in San Jose. However with his athleticism, Lofton has a lot of potential to be a contributor to this San Jose lineup in 2012.
Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?
Shawn Sanford and Taylor Rogers led the Green Jackets rotation in 2011 and will be expected to do the same in San Jose in 2012. Sanford's 10-10 record doesn't impress, but he did post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 3.57 in the Sally a year ago. Sanford's strength as a pitcher is his control, as he walked only 30 batters in 169.2 innings pitched (good for a BB/9 of 1.7). That being said, while his control, command and ability to keep the ball on the ground to limit hits has been impressive (1.69 GO/AO last year), he doesn't possess overwhelming stuff or strikeout prowess. Last year, his K/9 was only 5.7, a regression from the 8.6 mark he put up in 2010 in Salem Keizer. It'll be interesting to see how well he keeps batters at bay in the Cal League in 2012, especially considering the park factors and t he'll be around league average age-wise for a pitcher at 23 years old. He's off to a good start as he went six innings and allowed only three hits and no runs while walking one and striking out one in his debut start of the 2012 season (which resulted in a win for San Jose credited to Sanford).
As for Rogers, while his 2012 debut wasn't as impressive as Sanford's (he went five innings and allowed seven hits, two runs and a walk; but he did strike out seven and earned the win), he does share a similar profile to Sanford as a pitcher, even though he is a year older. Much like Sanford, Rogers showed good command in Augusta last year (2.26 K/BB ratio) and a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground (2.11 GO/AO ratio last year with the Green Jackets). However, he doesn't blow away hitters (5.0 K/9) and he can prove to be quite hittable (career H/9 of 9.3). While Sanford's age and skills give him a little bit more upside, Rogers could prove to be a good No. 2 guy in the San Jose rotation in 2012.
The Giants will have wild cards on the staff in Stephen Harrold, Seth Rosin, Josh Osich and Edward Concepcion, who will all be in the Giants bullpen to begin the year in 2012 (though Rosin and Osich have starter potential). Harrold was rated as the 25th best prospect in the Giants system, according to Baseball America, and Rosin is a power-armed right hander who has cracked the Top 30 in many lists. Both have showed a strong ability to strike batters out over the course of their minor league careers (Harrold has a minor league career K/9 of 9.3 while Rosin is just a notch below at 9.2), but they don't have very high ceilings as older, polished arms out of college.
Osich is a big wild card because it is unknown if the Giants will keep him in the bullpen or if they might move him into the rotation eventually. Osich started in college at Oregon State (and excelled as he threw a no-hitter against UCLA last year), but he had arm issues that could have been related to TJ surgery in 2009 (which forced him to miss 2010) and was shut down for the remainder of the 2011 season (which ended hurting his draft stock as he fell to the Giants' slot in the sixth round; he originally had first round/supplemental round potential pre-shut down). While it is probably wise to ease Osich into professional pitching by keeping him in the pen to begin the year, I do hope Giants management somehow works him into the rotation at some point this year. He has the ability to start, as evidenced by his track record in college, along with a repertoire that includes a solid fastball that touches 97 MPH, and a slider and changeup that have average to slightly above potential. A move of Osich to the rotation would increase his value significantly, and make him a steal as a sixth-round selection.
A sleeper out of the bullpen to watch out for is Concepcion, as he has showed a strong ability to strike batters out (career 9.1 K/9), but has had significant command and control issues as well. After a disastrous stint in the Northwest League which saw him post a 6.39 ERA and K/BB ratio of 1.24 (a minor league career low, and that includes his stint in the DSL) in 63.1 IP as a starter, Concepcion bounced back with a move to the pen in Augusta and posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.72 K/BB ratio in 52.1 IP. Concepcion still walked hitters in bunches (6.2 BB/9), but he did strike out 10.7 batters per nine innings, his best total in that category since his stint in the Arizona Rookie League (when it was 11.5). If Concepcion can harness his control even a little bit, he could be a very valuable arm in the San Jose bullpen this year, and could see his stock as a prospect rise by the end of the season simply because of his ability to strike batters out.
What Should We Expect from the Giants in 2012?
San Jose has been one of the strengths in the Giants' system "team-wise" for a while. They have consistently competed for Cal League titles while at the same time developing talent that has progressed nicely in their system. Of course, it's always tough to judge prospects (hitters especially) in the Cal League because of the offensive-friendly park factors. We have seen many hitters mash in the Cal League, only to be fully exposed in their transition to the Double-A Eastern League. This year, the offense will attract a lot of attention, especially with 2011 Draft picks Panik, Susac and Oropesa expected to get a lot of at-bats. Past those though (and maybe Duvall), the talent offensively does drop off quite a bit. I'm not a big believe in Lofton, and Jurica seems to be backup material at the Major League level at best. Furthermore, the pitching seems less strong in comparison to years past, as the staff lacks that front line starter they've sported in years past (Wheeler last year, Surkamp two years ago, Bumgarner and Alderson in 2009).
I think San Jose has produced a clubhouse environment where the team will always be competitive and I don't expect that to stop in 2012. However, considering how reliant they will be on offense (and considering this is Susac and Oropesa's first exposure to professional pitching, that's a big risk), and how thin the pitching looks, I expect a big regression for the CL Giants in 2012 from their 90-50 record a year ago.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Richmond and San Jose Set 2012 Rosters (Updated: With Giants and Grizzlies Notes to Come)
As the Giants start to figure out today who will and won't be on the active roster for Opening Day, the San Jose Giants and Richmond Flying Squirrels have already released their 2012 Opening Day rosters. This doesn't really come as too big of a surprise since both teams are opening up tomorrow. Here are some things I noticed about the rosters.
(Update as of 2:30 p.m. mountain time) The Giants just announced their 25-man roster and consequently, the Grizzlies just unveiled their roster as well. Will have another post to come. The biggest change to this post is that Ehire Adrianza is NOT going to Richmond, but Fresno after all. He is off the Squirrels' list and is now on the Grizzlies roster page. Will have thoughts on the Giants and Grizzlies in a post sometime later today
San Jose Roster Notes
Richmond Roster Notes
(Update as of 2:30 p.m. mountain time) The Giants just announced their 25-man roster and consequently, the Grizzlies just unveiled their roster as well. Will have another post to come. The biggest change to this post is that Ehire Adrianza is NOT going to Richmond, but Fresno after all. He is off the Squirrels' list and is now on the Grizzlies roster page. Will have thoughts on the Giants and Grizzlies in a post sometime later today
San Jose Roster Notes
- Though there were rumors that Jarrett Parker would make the move up to Richmond with draft classmate Gary Brown, the Giants decided to keep him in High-A to start the year. The move is probably a wise one, since Parker struck out a lot at the plate, and didn't have a steady position with Brown patrolling center field. Now, he most likely will get to play his natural position of center field (his main competition is Chris Lofton, who's athletic but a lot less skilled than Parker), which should give Giants fans and scouts a gauge of how good he is defensively. Hopefully Parker can make some adjustments and cut down on the whiffs that hurt his stock so heavily last season.
- It will be quite a battle to see who'll be playing in the middle infield in San Jose. Joe Panik predictably makes the move to the California League after mashing in the Northwest League the previous season. However, he won't simply be handed the position, as he will be competing with Carter Jurica, the Giants' third round pick in 2010. Jurica has the experience factor on Panik, as he played in 50 games and put up a slash of .250/.355/.383 in 212 plate appearances for San Jose in 2011. However, Panik profiles as the better player overall, for Jurica did commit 14 errors last year at the shortstop position. The best seems to be that Jurica will start at second and Panik will be the shortstop on Opening Day.
- Despite not playing at all last year due to signing late, Ricky Oropesa will start the year in San Jose. With his power potential, he could have a big season, especially in terms of power numbers and home runs. He may strike out a lot, but I could see him having the kind of season in the Cal League that Roger Kieschnick had in 2009 in the CL.
- Some notable absences from the list were Aaron King, Michael Main, Ryan Scoma, and James Simmons, who were all released, according to this post on the McCovey Chronicles. King and Main were once top pitching prospects in the Giants and Rangers systems, respectively, but injuries and ineffectiveness have derailed their careers.
Richmond Roster Notes
- Tommy Joseph makes the move up to Double-A and it'll be interesting to see how the Giants will handle him in Richmond. The Flying Squirrels will have Johnny Monell back behind the plate, but it's obvious that more upside rests in Joseph. Because of Monell's presence, it wouldn't be surprising to see Joseph split a lot of time between catcher and first base in 2012, especially if he continues to hit in Richmond like he did in San Jose in 2011.
- The Flying Squirrels will have an interesting outfield setup with Wendell Fairley, Juan Perez and Nick Liles battling for two spots. Right now, I'd say the favorites are Perez (whom I like a lot) and Liles (whom I'm not much a fan of, but more so than Fairley) for the right and left field positions, respectively. Center field won't be up for debate as Gary Brown should and will have the position on lockdown barring injury.
- The pitching staff lacks big-time arms or names, but it should be interesting nonetheless. Michael Kickham looks like the most intriguing prospect on the Flying Squirrels staff, but don't count out Jake Dunning (who's No. 26 on my list), Justin Fitzgerald (the Squirrels' projected Opening Day starter), Austin Fleet (who could transition to more of a starter after spending most of the time in the bullpen in Augusta and Richmond last year) or Craig Westcott (who went 13-4 with a 3.42 ERA in SJ last year). They may not dominate like Eric Surkamp a year ago, but they do have some potential to have good years in the EL.
- Chris Dominguez looks slated to be the starting third baseman for the Squirrels and safe to say, it's a big year for him. He got off to a hot start last year when he made the transition from SJ to Richmond, but he struggled down the stretch and ended finishing with a .244/.272/.403 line for the year. The power potential with Dominguez is there, and his arm strength is probably the strongest out of any infielder in the Giants system. That being said, his ability to make consistent contact as a professional has been lackluster at best. At 25 years of age, he doesn't have much time left on the clock.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Writing for a New Site...But OTF Will Still Go On
So, for those who may not be aware, I got an invite from Wally Fish of the Fansided network to write for Seedlings 2 Stars, Fansided's Minor League blog. Being that I am one of those people who always loves new challenges and opportunities, I have decided that I would contribute to their blog as a staff writer. I already posted my first article for their site, which is a look at the Top-5 Latin American position prospects in the National League West (Peguero comes in at four, and Adrianza and Sanchez are honorable mentions). I hope to write one on pitching prospects at some point this week. They want me to write a couple of times a week, which I think I can do while still keeping up consistent posts on this blog.
Also, side note, I know some of the grades might be a little off from what you see here. To give some context, I am an optimist at heart with the Giants. Yes, I'm anti-Eli Whiteside and anti-Chris Dominguez, but for the most part I tend to cut the Giants a lot of slack on things, especially when it comes to player evaluation. I mean, I was a guy who supported Fred Lewis and John Bowker as everyday Major League players, and Lewis has just been cut by the Indians this Spring and Bowker is playing for the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB. So, that just goes to show you how green I am when I come to evaluating talent. In terms of where I'm at in the Minor League analyst circles, I would say I'm just starting High-A, and I'm trying to take advantage of the hitter-friendly environments of the Cal League.
But, the point is, I tend to be more optimistic when I look at Giants prospects. Adrianza would be a C+ prospect to most analysts, but I think of him as a B on this site because I think his bat will come around and I think his glove is Gold Glove worthy. Same goes with Joe Panik, who I rate as a B+ prospect while most analysts would think of him as a B to B- guy based on his tools. Hence, the way I think of Giants prospects on this site is not really a clear cut standard...or at least not yet. With S2S, while I will be covering prospects from my perspective, I will also be covering and evaluating them based on what the general consensus is from scouts, publications and other web sites. So, while Francisco Peguero may be a B prospect on this site, I rate him as a B- prospect on S2S because the general consensus on him from most people is that he's a B- guy. I think when trying to cover prospects on a National scale, one has to take into consideration all the sources. I do that here, but as Shankbone said in a comment, I do try to give a lot of consideration to guys in the Giants system, because to be frank, I am a Giants fan and as much as I hate to admit it, I am biased in favor of the Giants.
I don't know if this clears anything up, but hopefully it'll give some context and explain the differences as I rotate my posts between here and S2S. God knows where I'm going to get the time to do all this posting, but when you live where I live and have the job I have, you do manage to find time.
I am shooting to get No. 21-25 in the prospect list done by tomorrow. I have already started, just didn't have the time today to really get finished. For all those who read this blog, thanks for reading and check out S2S. They're going through some writer turnover, but they got some really good stuff and a great staff. Definitely glad to be aboard.
Just a couple of more days to Opening Day. Hoka Hey!
Also, side note, I know some of the grades might be a little off from what you see here. To give some context, I am an optimist at heart with the Giants. Yes, I'm anti-Eli Whiteside and anti-Chris Dominguez, but for the most part I tend to cut the Giants a lot of slack on things, especially when it comes to player evaluation. I mean, I was a guy who supported Fred Lewis and John Bowker as everyday Major League players, and Lewis has just been cut by the Indians this Spring and Bowker is playing for the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB. So, that just goes to show you how green I am when I come to evaluating talent. In terms of where I'm at in the Minor League analyst circles, I would say I'm just starting High-A, and I'm trying to take advantage of the hitter-friendly environments of the Cal League.
But, the point is, I tend to be more optimistic when I look at Giants prospects. Adrianza would be a C+ prospect to most analysts, but I think of him as a B on this site because I think his bat will come around and I think his glove is Gold Glove worthy. Same goes with Joe Panik, who I rate as a B+ prospect while most analysts would think of him as a B to B- guy based on his tools. Hence, the way I think of Giants prospects on this site is not really a clear cut standard...or at least not yet. With S2S, while I will be covering prospects from my perspective, I will also be covering and evaluating them based on what the general consensus is from scouts, publications and other web sites. So, while Francisco Peguero may be a B prospect on this site, I rate him as a B- prospect on S2S because the general consensus on him from most people is that he's a B- guy. I think when trying to cover prospects on a National scale, one has to take into consideration all the sources. I do that here, but as Shankbone said in a comment, I do try to give a lot of consideration to guys in the Giants system, because to be frank, I am a Giants fan and as much as I hate to admit it, I am biased in favor of the Giants.
I don't know if this clears anything up, but hopefully it'll give some context and explain the differences as I rotate my posts between here and S2S. God knows where I'm going to get the time to do all this posting, but when you live where I live and have the job I have, you do manage to find time.
I am shooting to get No. 21-25 in the prospect list done by tomorrow. I have already started, just didn't have the time today to really get finished. For all those who read this blog, thanks for reading and check out S2S. They're going through some writer turnover, but they got some really good stuff and a great staff. Definitely glad to be aboard.
Just a couple of more days to Opening Day. Hoka Hey!
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Spring Training Notes: Cuts and a Look at the Giants Prospects This Spring
So, I figure with Opening Day and with final roster cuts coming up, it would be a good time to see who has done well and who has struggled this Spring out of the prospects invited to Spring Training. Here are a few points in "bullet form."
-- As noted in the title, the Giants made another round of cuts, optioning pitcher Hector Correa and outfielder Tyler Graham to Triple-A to Fresno (title of the blog alert!). The news on those two isn't too much of a surprise considering the Giants bullpen and outfield is pretty crowded as it is, and those two were long shots to make the 25-man this Spring. Correa struck out three in 2.1 innings of work, while also allowing one run on three hits and two walks. While Graham impressed with his abilities in the field, he never could get comfortable at the plate this Spring, as he only had two hits and one walk in 15 at-bats.
-- The Giants also made some assignments to Minor League camp last Sunday. On the list were infielders Chris Dominguez and Nick Noonan, catcher Jackson Williams, outfielder Juan Perez, and pitchers Matt Yourkin, Mitch Lively and Justin Fitzgerald.
-- The most impressive performer of the bunch was Perez, who posted a slash of .455/.538/.909 in nine games and 11 at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also added a home run, a triple and a stolen base to his stat total this Spring. The Spring is a nice sign for Perez who is coming off a down year in Richmond where he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances. The previous season, Perez gained some steam as an under the radar prospect after hitting .298 with an .809 OPS in 596 plate appearances with the San Jose Giants. While he is a bit of an older prospect (he's going to be 25 this year), Perez has some very Andres Torres-esque qualities in the sense that he has good speed (22 stolen bases a year ago) and some pop for a guy of his diminutive stature. Whether he starts in Richmond or Fresno, I think Perez could have a bounce back year in 2012, and this Spring was certainly a good sign for such a breakout.
-- On March 16th, the Giants sent top prospect Gary Brown to Minor League camp. Though he is the consensus No. 1 Giants prospect on most experts' lists and a Top-50 prospect in baseball, the move isn't a surprise considering Brown's highest level of play is the Cal League. With Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera being acquired this off-season, and with Gregor Blanco's hot spring, Brown's shot of making the 25-man roster was very slim and unlikely to begin with. In seven games with the Big League squad this Spring, Brown had two hits in 11 at-bats, both singles. While he did have a stolen base, he was caught stealing twice on three attempts. One of the big things Brown needs to work on is being more efficient on the basepaths, as he was caught 19 times last year. With his 80 scout grade speed, that is just way too much. Hopefully the Giants worked with him on some things this Spring that will make him more efficient this upcoming season.
-- Of the non-roster invitee prospects in the Giants system, the biggest performer had to be Tommy Joseph, who had two home runs in nine at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also showed a solid eye at the plate, walking twice and only striking out once. Considering that his biggest weakness as a hitter was the questionable plate discipline, this Spring was an encouraging sign for him this upcoming year as he makes the move from the Cal to the Eastern League.
-- In terms of pitching prospects, the results have been a little mixed. Eric Surkamp was expected to battle for the fifth spot in the Giants' rotation, but he hasn't stood out amazingly this Spring. While he has displayed flashes of the command that made him such a great prospect in the Cal and Eastern League (he has struck out 11 and only walked 3 in 11.1 innings of work), he has still proven to be too hittable when facing Major League hitters. He allowed 13 hits and six runs in four appearances and two starts this year. It is likely that he will start the year in Fresno.
-- On the other end, Heath Hembree came on with a fury this Spring, striking out seven in five innings of work while only walking one and allowing two hits and a run. With Brian Wilson showing some arm issues this Spring, Hembree made a case why he should be considered in the Giants bullpen as soon as this year. If Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez show any signs of struggle, don't be surprised to see Hembree get a call up to the big league roster sooner rather than later. He may be the third best right handed reliever on the Giants roster behind Wilson and Sergio Romo.
-- As noted in the title, the Giants made another round of cuts, optioning pitcher Hector Correa and outfielder Tyler Graham to Triple-A to Fresno (title of the blog alert!). The news on those two isn't too much of a surprise considering the Giants bullpen and outfield is pretty crowded as it is, and those two were long shots to make the 25-man this Spring. Correa struck out three in 2.1 innings of work, while also allowing one run on three hits and two walks. While Graham impressed with his abilities in the field, he never could get comfortable at the plate this Spring, as he only had two hits and one walk in 15 at-bats.
-- The Giants also made some assignments to Minor League camp last Sunday. On the list were infielders Chris Dominguez and Nick Noonan, catcher Jackson Williams, outfielder Juan Perez, and pitchers Matt Yourkin, Mitch Lively and Justin Fitzgerald.
-- The most impressive performer of the bunch was Perez, who posted a slash of .455/.538/.909 in nine games and 11 at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also added a home run, a triple and a stolen base to his stat total this Spring. The Spring is a nice sign for Perez who is coming off a down year in Richmond where he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances. The previous season, Perez gained some steam as an under the radar prospect after hitting .298 with an .809 OPS in 596 plate appearances with the San Jose Giants. While he is a bit of an older prospect (he's going to be 25 this year), Perez has some very Andres Torres-esque qualities in the sense that he has good speed (22 stolen bases a year ago) and some pop for a guy of his diminutive stature. Whether he starts in Richmond or Fresno, I think Perez could have a bounce back year in 2012, and this Spring was certainly a good sign for such a breakout.
-- On March 16th, the Giants sent top prospect Gary Brown to Minor League camp. Though he is the consensus No. 1 Giants prospect on most experts' lists and a Top-50 prospect in baseball, the move isn't a surprise considering Brown's highest level of play is the Cal League. With Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera being acquired this off-season, and with Gregor Blanco's hot spring, Brown's shot of making the 25-man roster was very slim and unlikely to begin with. In seven games with the Big League squad this Spring, Brown had two hits in 11 at-bats, both singles. While he did have a stolen base, he was caught stealing twice on three attempts. One of the big things Brown needs to work on is being more efficient on the basepaths, as he was caught 19 times last year. With his 80 scout grade speed, that is just way too much. Hopefully the Giants worked with him on some things this Spring that will make him more efficient this upcoming season.
-- Of the non-roster invitee prospects in the Giants system, the biggest performer had to be Tommy Joseph, who had two home runs in nine at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also showed a solid eye at the plate, walking twice and only striking out once. Considering that his biggest weakness as a hitter was the questionable plate discipline, this Spring was an encouraging sign for him this upcoming year as he makes the move from the Cal to the Eastern League.
-- In terms of pitching prospects, the results have been a little mixed. Eric Surkamp was expected to battle for the fifth spot in the Giants' rotation, but he hasn't stood out amazingly this Spring. While he has displayed flashes of the command that made him such a great prospect in the Cal and Eastern League (he has struck out 11 and only walked 3 in 11.1 innings of work), he has still proven to be too hittable when facing Major League hitters. He allowed 13 hits and six runs in four appearances and two starts this year. It is likely that he will start the year in Fresno.
-- On the other end, Heath Hembree came on with a fury this Spring, striking out seven in five innings of work while only walking one and allowing two hits and a run. With Brian Wilson showing some arm issues this Spring, Hembree made a case why he should be considered in the Giants bullpen as soon as this year. If Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez show any signs of struggle, don't be surprised to see Hembree get a call up to the big league roster sooner rather than later. He may be the third best right handed reliever on the Giants roster behind Wilson and Sergio Romo.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
What Giants Fans (Mostly Myself) Learned from "Bowkermania!"
In 2009, John Bowker burst onto the Giants fan scene like no other. He became pretty much the "favorite son" of Giants fans and bloggers everywhere, who came up with terms like "Bowkermania!" and "Free Bowker!"
Of course, there was some interest in the free-swinging lefty in 2008, who got off to a torrid start with the Giants where he hit eight home runs in the first three months of play, and posted a slash of .325/.373/.584 in the month of June. However, a down July sent him to the bench, and for the remainder of the year in 2008, Bowker was pretty much an afterthought in the Giants organization.
But 2009 was the real jump off for Bowker, and it all started with that 2009 season of his in the Pacific Coast League.
Bowker put up incredible numbers in the PCL as a 25 year old, posting a slash of .342/.451/.596 with an OPS of 1.047 in 450 plate appearances with the Fresno Grizzlies. Yes, the 21 home runs were impressive, as was the OPS, but what really turned a lot of Giants fans' heads around (especially the stat heavy guys) was Bowker's suddenly honed approach at the plate.
Prior to 2009, Bowker's approach at the plate profiled as one of a free-swinging power hitter who struck out a good amount and didn't draw a lot of walks to boot. In 2007 in San Jose, he posted an OPS of .762 but only sported a meager BB/K ratio of 0.37. In 2008, his power numbers jumped in Connecticut despite the pitcher-friendly environments of the Eastern League, as he hit 22 home runs and posted an OPS of .886 in 587 plate appearances with the Defenders. Unfortunately, despite the jump in power, the approach at the plate didn't get much better, as he finished the year with a BB/K ratio of 0.40. While Bowker certainly had the potential to hit with power at the Big League level (and he flashed that in his short campaign in 2008), many people believed that his approach at the plate would prevent him from achieving consistent success as a Major League player.
In 2009 though, that all changed as his BB/K ratio suddenly spiked to 1.16. That's right. He improved his BB/K ratio by 76 points from Double-A Connecticut and 90 points from his brief stint with the Giants (his BB/K ratio was 0.26 in San Francisco). Bowker suddenly went from an outfielder with utility potential to starting potential, perhaps even All-Star potential.
Or so that's what all of us Giants fans wanted to believe.
In reality, we should have tempered the expectations.
As Grant Brisbee eloquently put it in this piece on the McCovey Chronicles, Bowker was such a beloved figure amongst Giants fans because he was the kind of player offensively in Fresno that was the polar opposite of what Giants fans were seeing on a daily basis in the outfield. Randy Winn had no patience at the plate and added minimal power to boot. Fred Lewis was a strikeout machine. Aaron Rowand couldn't lay off balls in the dirt to save his life. Eugenio Velez was Eugenio Velez. With his unbelievable numbers in Triple-A, Giants fans felt that if they could even get a modicum of that production at the Big League level, then he would be an upgrade over whatever the Giants had trotting out in the outfield in 2009.
Alas, he couldn't translate his impressive numbers as a Grizzly to the Major League club. In a short cup of coffee (73 plate appearances), Bowker put up a .194 average, .620 OPS and a BB/K ratio of 0.22 (actually worse than his 2008 call up). He looked less like the guy who was dominating PCL pitchers like Barry Bonds, and more like the guy in July of 2008 who didn't have a clue at the plate.
It didn't stop Giants fans like us though from believing in Bowkermania. Giants fans (including myself) pointed out a myriad of reasons why the skills didn't translate from Triple-A to the Major Leagues. He wasn't getting enough at-bats. The hitting philosophy under Carney Lansford didn't suit his style. The organization was putting too much pressure on Bowker to produce right away, and not enough on guys like Winn or Velez.
To be honest, the Giants did everything they could to give Bowker the job in 2010. They hired Hensely Meulens from Fresno as the Giants hitting coach, and they didn't bring back Winn. Furthermore, they made the competition between Bowker and Nate Schierholtz for the starting right field job in Spring Training, and after out-performing Nate in Spring Training, they handed the right field position to Bowker on Opening Day.
And still, Bowker couldn't produce. After a 90 plate appearance and .207/.254/.356 campaign as the Giants' right fielder, the Giants organization sent him down to Fresno and then included him in a trade package that eventually netted them lefty-specialist Javier Lopez from Pittsburgh. In the span of a year, Bowkermania in San Francisco was done, and two years later, Bowkermania was finished in Major League Baseball, as Bowker was released from the Phillies after last season to pursue a career in Japan (he signed with the Yomiuri Giants).
Bowker isn't the only example of Giants fans over-hoping for a prospect. Kevin Frandsen, Lance Niekro, Todd Linden, Jesse Foppert, Jerome Williams, Merkin Valdez, and Dante Powell are all examples of prospects Giants fans have had high hopes for, only to see them flail at the MLB level. After Bowker and the creation of this blog, Bowkermania taught me four things:
1.) Look at skills, not stats...and look at those skills at all levels, not just one.
Ron Shandler is a big proponent of this in his forecast. Though it is mostly referring to fantasy baseball purposes, the same rings true for prospects. You have to look at what his tools are and how they translate into the numbers, and not just the numbers themselves (or even the tools themselves, because as we know, some guys sport tremendous tools but can't back it up into good numbers). In addition, I would add onto this by saying that looking at all the "skill-related" numbers at all levels is equally important. Bowker didn't really flash any plate patience until he got to Fresno. His BB/K ratio and walk numbers were pedestrian at best from the Northwest League to the Eastern League. At the end of the day, one year of good plate patience is just that: one good year. Add that with the fact that he didn't show that at the Major League level, and Bowker pretty much proved to be the player we all thought he would be pre-2009: a free swinging lefty with some pop, but not a lot of discipline.
2.) Position is key.
If Bowker was a third baseman or catcher, perhaps the Giants would have had more patience with him. That being said, with a glut of outfielders such as Rowand, Mark Derosa, Nate Schierholtz, etc., Bowker didn't have much room for error. Add that with the mid-season signing of Pat Burrell and the writing was pretty much on the wall for Bowker. That is why, in my mind, position is such a key thing for prospects. It's the reason why a guy like Pablo Sandoval loses value if he moves from third to first base or if Tommy Joseph moves from catcher to first base. As first baseman, those guys not only struggle to compete with others at the position around the league, but they even pale in their own organization, as Brandon Belt is far superior to them defensively and perhaps offensively. Bowker was a corner outfielder whose lone "strength" was his bat, and when he didn't show that bat at the Big League level, he became expendable because there is usually a lot of depth in organizations when it comes to outfielders.
3.) Pay attention to trends in the leagues.
Brian Sabean said in an interview once that Triple-A pitching "wasn't very good." While he was referring to Buster Posey and he came off as condescending, Sabean has a point. Triple-A pitching isn't good. For the most part, Triple-A pitchers are journeyman who can't find a spot on the 25-man roster or prospects who have struggled at the Major League level and are taking some time for seasoning or to work on some things. Triple-A pitchers have some kind of flaw one way or the other, and one can't automatically believe that one's Triple-A numbers will automatically translate (even partially) to the Big League level. The California League is the same issue, as the environments greatly favor hitters, much like the Pacific Coast League. As for the Eastern League, the environments tend to favor pitchers, and one has to take some pitchers' numbers (mostly ERA for example) with a grain of salt. Hence, when it comes to evaluating prospects, one just can't look at one sample and say that's the recipe for success. There has to be a consistent showing of success from level to level.
4.) Age-related-to-league performance is huge.
In many ways, Bowker going to Fresno is lose-lose. He had 350 plate appearances in San Francisco the previous year. If he succeeded, then well, he was 25 and he had almost 3/4 of a season of experience at the Big League level. He is supposed to succeed. If he flops, then he probably wasn't that good of a prospect if he can't dominate Triple-A pitching at age 25. Now, if Bowker was 22 or 23 and putting up the numbers he was in 2009, that would be a different story. But he wasn't and as a result, Giants fans probably should have tempered their expectations. This isn't just specific to Bowker of course, and it should be applied to all prospects in any professional system. If a guy is younger than the competition and producing, then that's a good sign. If he's older than the competition, then it's a red flag. If he's repeating levels, that's also a red flag as well, especially if he has good numbers. Age-related-to-league is probably one of the most important things any baseball fan could look at when it comes to evaluating prospects. Bowker's older age and the fact that he was repeating Triple-A should have had more of us Giants fans on our toes.
As stated before, Bowker isn't the only example of a "prospect getting hype but not living up to it." Myriads of organizations can claim almost hundreds of players who failed to live up to the hype in the past decade alone. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule. There are guys like Bowker who take a while to develop and then burst onto the scene at the Major League level. Mike Morse and Jose Bautista are examples of players who took longer than expected in the Minors, showed inconsistency at the Minor and Major League level and have now become everyday players. That being said, those are the exceptions, not the standards.
Did Bowker have a chance to be that exception? Of course, he did. I still feel he had a very good power tool set for a corner outfielder. But as with most prospects in his situation, the chips were stacked against him and as it is most of the time with prospects, the odds won out. For every Buster Posey, there's four to five Bowkers out there that don't live up to the "hype" generated by fans.
At least Giants fans (and myself) are better off now for understanding that the "hype machine" doesn't always strike gold with everyone.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
OTF Top 30: No. 1, Gary Brown, OF
There has been a huge delay in posts. I know consistency has been something of a problem in the past, but I had some things at work that got in the way and it was hard to find time to really sit down and write. Now though, I have a little free time, so I should be able to start posting. I will get back to the 2007 prospect retrospective later, but I wanted to get through the profiles first before Spring Training. So, without further delay, here's the first profile in the Top 30.
No.1: Gary Brown, Outfielder
Age: 23 years old
Drafted: First Round (24th overall) in 2010 Draft
College: Cal State Fullerton
2011 regular season numbers: .336 average, .407 OBP, .519 slugging, .925 OPS, .411 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 115 runs scored, 14 home runs, 53 stolen bases (High-A)
2011 Fall League/Winter League numbers: .220 average, .278 OBP, .300 slugging, .578 OPS, .266 wOBA, 40 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 1 home run, 2 stolen bases (AFL)
Why You Should Know About Brown in 2012:
Brown is the consensus top prospect in the Giants system and for good reason. He had an absolutely phenomenal year in the California League in his first full professional year. While he had a stellar career at baseball powerhouse Cal State Fullerton, many baseball experts felt Brown was a bit of a reach at the 24th slot in the 2010 draft. However, after last year, not only did he help change the minds of a lot of those naysayers, but he also became valuable to the point where the Giants were willing to trade former Top 10 pick Zack Wheeler in the Carlos Beltran deal over Brown.
What Are Brown's Strengths as a Prospect?
Brown's speed is his calling card and his plus tool as a prospect. Brown recorded a 3.80 time down the first line according to scouts, which is absolutely blazing (4.00 is usually a plus score), and last year in San Jose, Brown did steal 53 bags to boot. However, while the speed on the basepaths is nice, Brown was known for being a solid contact hitter (he posted a 94 percent contact rate in his last year at Fullerton) and in San Jose he proved much of the same as he posted an above .300 batting average and a contact rate of 86 percent. Furthermore, he also showed some gap to gap power, as he hit 34 doubles, 13 triples and 14 home runs in 638 plate appearances in San Jose in 2012 (which added up to a sterling .519 slugging).
Offensively, Brown's bat turned a lot of heads in 2011, and rightfully so. His speed, contact ability, and surprising power (especially to the gaps) make him an ideal leadoff hitter for the Giants in the future (currently Angel Pagan is slotted in the spot and he's only on a one year contract). However, defensively, Brown also rates very strong and he seems to be more than capable of handling the dimensions of AT&T's spacious park. Brown posted a 2.25 RF/G and a .989 fielding percentage in 2011. He also recorded 16 assists, not bad considering scouts rate his arm as average at best. That being said, he does have excellent range in the outfield, and has an aggressive mindset in the field as well (though at times it can be an enemy as he overplays some balls...that will get better with more experience though and is correctable). MLB Prospect Portal.com was very high on his defensive potential, as they rated his defense a 55 now, but with 70 potential (on a 20-80 scale).
Where Might Brown Struggle?
Though he had very good college numbers, Brown hasn't done anything to disprove the notion that he isn't anything more than a "California League" wonder. Now, like I said, his college numbers were very good, he has excellent tools, and his California League campaign looks incredible all across the board. That being said, he did not have a very good year statistically in Rookie ball or the Northwest League in 2010 (he posted batting averages under .200 and wOBA's of .311 and .225, respectively). In addition, his 2011 AFL campaign was extremely underwhelming offensively (.220 average, .266 wOBA). While those numbers are simply too small of samples to really hold against him (99 plate appearances total between those three stints), there will be immense pressure on Brown to perform in Richmond, especially since a lot of Giants fans envision him as the Giants starting center fielder in 2013. A lot of hitters have struggled in the transition from the California League to the Eastern League, and hence, their development stagnated along with their bats. I don't think Brown will fall in that category (as I mentioned in this earlier post), but it is something to think about as a Giants fan.
The only real concern about Brown (other than his arm strength, which is graded as mostly average by scouts; but he's a centerfielder and it's fine for his position) is probably his plate approach, which was much maligned going into the 2010 draft. Basically, Brown doesn't walk very much. It isn't Francisco Peguero-bad, but he's not going to be piling up the free passes either. Last year, he showed a lot of improvement from his college numbers (he only drew 9 walks in 210 at-bats in 2010 with the Titans), as he garnered 46 bases on balls (a 7.4 percent walk rate) and a BB/K ratio of 0.60. That being said, in the AFL, he only drew 1 walk in 55 plate appearances (a 1.8 percent rate), a bit of a regression from his solid approach in San Jose (though as stated before, it's a small sample). One of the plus aspects of Brown's game is not only his ability to make contact, but his speed. Though he could be a little more selective on the basepaths (he was caught 19 times last year), 53 stolen bases is nothing to shrug about. Brown could be one of the Giants' best stolen base threats in a long time (better than even Andres Torres, who had great speed, but did not accumulate a lot of stolen bases). However, if he struggles to get walks and recognize pitches, it's going to limit his value, because that speed will be on the bench rather than on the basepaths. (Though as I've said in my earlier post about Brown, his sneaky value comes in his HBP numbers, which make his BB/K ratios even better when you add them in to the ratio; so that could be something that could make up for the lack of walks).
A nitpicky thing I have read a lot of scouts complain about is Brown's mechanics in the batter's box. A lot of scouts feel he has too much movement pre-swing, and that it makes them wonder if his noisy mechanics will hinder him as he climbs up the system and faces better pitching. To be honest, yes, I think Brown in the batter's box looks ugly. I don't like all the movement with his legs (he twitches his back leg a lot) and he does at times show cases of "happy feet" (where he's moving his feet in the batter's box prior to the swing), though it doesn't seem as bad as it was in college. That being said, I think that concern about Brown is down the ladder with me, perhaps even a non-issue to be frank. Once Brown gets loaded up for his swing, everything looks good, and he gets out of the batter's box fast for a right handed hitter. From what I've seen, none of his quirkiness does anything to hinder his approach or swing. Is it the prettiest swing in the world? Probably not. But is it effective? Absolutely, and until it ceases to be effective, I'll consider the "noise" pre-swing as a minimal issue at best.
Grades on Brown's Tools:
Hitting for Average/Contact Ability: 18/20 (He was good in college and made strides last year; I think he should be a mid-80 percent contact hitter who'll threaten the .300 mark on an annual basis).
Plate Approach: 17/20 (Showed good discipline in 2011, but before I grade it in the A-minus range, I want to see him transition that for a second straight year).
Power: 16/20 (Depends how you view power; if it's big flies, than he's got C-grade power at best; if it's gap to gap power, Brown has a ton of potential, and this grade could go up next year if he can hold up his gap to gap power in the Eastern League in 2012).
Speed: 20/20 (Gary Brown is FAST. Enough said.)
Defense: 18/20 (Big knock is his average arm, but his range and aggressiveness make up for it; as a center fielder, I think he could have big-play, Gold Glove potential).
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (No major injury issues and did play 131 games last year in San Jose; seems like an upstanding guy too, which doesn't help you a ton as a prospect, but it's better than being a jerk, which seems to hurt you more than one would think as a prospect; either way, he seems like he could easily fit with other baby faces like Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt at the Big League level).
Overall Grade: A-minus.
Projection: Starting Center Fielder at the minimum, could have big-time contributor/All-Star potential.
Summary: I like Brown a lot, which is why I graded him as an A-minus prospect (I know Sickels graded him as a B-plus). I think Brown has some plus tools (speed being the obvious one) and some tools that could get better with more and more exposure to professional pitching. To be honest, it's hard to find a lot of flaws with Brown's tool set or abilities. Sure, he had a bit of a slump mid-season that probably prevented an earlier callup, but the overall numbers don't lie: Brown was simply phenomenal in the California League. Of course, we've been down this road before with "phenomenal" California League performers. Yet with his tool set and potential, I think Brown will not only be successful next year in Richmond, but at the Big League level as well.
No.1: Gary Brown, Outfielder
Age: 23 years old
Drafted: First Round (24th overall) in 2010 Draft
College: Cal State Fullerton
2011 regular season numbers: .336 average, .407 OBP, .519 slugging, .925 OPS, .411 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 115 runs scored, 14 home runs, 53 stolen bases (High-A)
2011 Fall League/Winter League numbers: .220 average, .278 OBP, .300 slugging, .578 OPS, .266 wOBA, 40 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 1 home run, 2 stolen bases (AFL)
Why You Should Know About Brown in 2012:
Brown is the consensus top prospect in the Giants system and for good reason. He had an absolutely phenomenal year in the California League in his first full professional year. While he had a stellar career at baseball powerhouse Cal State Fullerton, many baseball experts felt Brown was a bit of a reach at the 24th slot in the 2010 draft. However, after last year, not only did he help change the minds of a lot of those naysayers, but he also became valuable to the point where the Giants were willing to trade former Top 10 pick Zack Wheeler in the Carlos Beltran deal over Brown.
What Are Brown's Strengths as a Prospect?
Brown's speed is his calling card and his plus tool as a prospect. Brown recorded a 3.80 time down the first line according to scouts, which is absolutely blazing (4.00 is usually a plus score), and last year in San Jose, Brown did steal 53 bags to boot. However, while the speed on the basepaths is nice, Brown was known for being a solid contact hitter (he posted a 94 percent contact rate in his last year at Fullerton) and in San Jose he proved much of the same as he posted an above .300 batting average and a contact rate of 86 percent. Furthermore, he also showed some gap to gap power, as he hit 34 doubles, 13 triples and 14 home runs in 638 plate appearances in San Jose in 2012 (which added up to a sterling .519 slugging).
Offensively, Brown's bat turned a lot of heads in 2011, and rightfully so. His speed, contact ability, and surprising power (especially to the gaps) make him an ideal leadoff hitter for the Giants in the future (currently Angel Pagan is slotted in the spot and he's only on a one year contract). However, defensively, Brown also rates very strong and he seems to be more than capable of handling the dimensions of AT&T's spacious park. Brown posted a 2.25 RF/G and a .989 fielding percentage in 2011. He also recorded 16 assists, not bad considering scouts rate his arm as average at best. That being said, he does have excellent range in the outfield, and has an aggressive mindset in the field as well (though at times it can be an enemy as he overplays some balls...that will get better with more experience though and is correctable). MLB Prospect Portal.com was very high on his defensive potential, as they rated his defense a 55 now, but with 70 potential (on a 20-80 scale).
Where Might Brown Struggle?
Though he had very good college numbers, Brown hasn't done anything to disprove the notion that he isn't anything more than a "California League" wonder. Now, like I said, his college numbers were very good, he has excellent tools, and his California League campaign looks incredible all across the board. That being said, he did not have a very good year statistically in Rookie ball or the Northwest League in 2010 (he posted batting averages under .200 and wOBA's of .311 and .225, respectively). In addition, his 2011 AFL campaign was extremely underwhelming offensively (.220 average, .266 wOBA). While those numbers are simply too small of samples to really hold against him (99 plate appearances total between those three stints), there will be immense pressure on Brown to perform in Richmond, especially since a lot of Giants fans envision him as the Giants starting center fielder in 2013. A lot of hitters have struggled in the transition from the California League to the Eastern League, and hence, their development stagnated along with their bats. I don't think Brown will fall in that category (as I mentioned in this earlier post), but it is something to think about as a Giants fan.
The only real concern about Brown (other than his arm strength, which is graded as mostly average by scouts; but he's a centerfielder and it's fine for his position) is probably his plate approach, which was much maligned going into the 2010 draft. Basically, Brown doesn't walk very much. It isn't Francisco Peguero-bad, but he's not going to be piling up the free passes either. Last year, he showed a lot of improvement from his college numbers (he only drew 9 walks in 210 at-bats in 2010 with the Titans), as he garnered 46 bases on balls (a 7.4 percent walk rate) and a BB/K ratio of 0.60. That being said, in the AFL, he only drew 1 walk in 55 plate appearances (a 1.8 percent rate), a bit of a regression from his solid approach in San Jose (though as stated before, it's a small sample). One of the plus aspects of Brown's game is not only his ability to make contact, but his speed. Though he could be a little more selective on the basepaths (he was caught 19 times last year), 53 stolen bases is nothing to shrug about. Brown could be one of the Giants' best stolen base threats in a long time (better than even Andres Torres, who had great speed, but did not accumulate a lot of stolen bases). However, if he struggles to get walks and recognize pitches, it's going to limit his value, because that speed will be on the bench rather than on the basepaths. (Though as I've said in my earlier post about Brown, his sneaky value comes in his HBP numbers, which make his BB/K ratios even better when you add them in to the ratio; so that could be something that could make up for the lack of walks).
A nitpicky thing I have read a lot of scouts complain about is Brown's mechanics in the batter's box. A lot of scouts feel he has too much movement pre-swing, and that it makes them wonder if his noisy mechanics will hinder him as he climbs up the system and faces better pitching. To be honest, yes, I think Brown in the batter's box looks ugly. I don't like all the movement with his legs (he twitches his back leg a lot) and he does at times show cases of "happy feet" (where he's moving his feet in the batter's box prior to the swing), though it doesn't seem as bad as it was in college. That being said, I think that concern about Brown is down the ladder with me, perhaps even a non-issue to be frank. Once Brown gets loaded up for his swing, everything looks good, and he gets out of the batter's box fast for a right handed hitter. From what I've seen, none of his quirkiness does anything to hinder his approach or swing. Is it the prettiest swing in the world? Probably not. But is it effective? Absolutely, and until it ceases to be effective, I'll consider the "noise" pre-swing as a minimal issue at best.
Grades on Brown's Tools:
Hitting for Average/Contact Ability: 18/20 (He was good in college and made strides last year; I think he should be a mid-80 percent contact hitter who'll threaten the .300 mark on an annual basis).
Plate Approach: 17/20 (Showed good discipline in 2011, but before I grade it in the A-minus range, I want to see him transition that for a second straight year).
Power: 16/20 (Depends how you view power; if it's big flies, than he's got C-grade power at best; if it's gap to gap power, Brown has a ton of potential, and this grade could go up next year if he can hold up his gap to gap power in the Eastern League in 2012).
Speed: 20/20 (Gary Brown is FAST. Enough said.)
Defense: 18/20 (Big knock is his average arm, but his range and aggressiveness make up for it; as a center fielder, I think he could have big-play, Gold Glove potential).
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (No major injury issues and did play 131 games last year in San Jose; seems like an upstanding guy too, which doesn't help you a ton as a prospect, but it's better than being a jerk, which seems to hurt you more than one would think as a prospect; either way, he seems like he could easily fit with other baby faces like Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt at the Big League level).
Overall Grade: A-minus.
Projection: Starting Center Fielder at the minimum, could have big-time contributor/All-Star potential.
Summary: I like Brown a lot, which is why I graded him as an A-minus prospect (I know Sickels graded him as a B-plus). I think Brown has some plus tools (speed being the obvious one) and some tools that could get better with more and more exposure to professional pitching. To be honest, it's hard to find a lot of flaws with Brown's tool set or abilities. Sure, he had a bit of a slump mid-season that probably prevented an earlier callup, but the overall numbers don't lie: Brown was simply phenomenal in the California League. Of course, we've been down this road before with "phenomenal" California League performers. Yet with his tool set and potential, I think Brown will not only be successful next year in Richmond, but at the Big League level as well.
Friday, February 3, 2012
The OTF Top 30: The Actual List
It's been a long week for me, so I didn't get a chance to post until now. However, I have compiled my actual prospect list, so I figured it would be good to write down the actual list and then go into profiles.
Will go more into detail on the list in subsequent posts, but just wanted to put it out there so people have one more prospect list to chew on.
Will go more into detail on the list in subsequent posts, but just wanted to put it out there so people have one more prospect list to chew on.
| Player Name | Ranking | Position | Grade | ETA |
| Gary Brown | #1 | OF | A- | 2013 |
| Joe Panik | #2 | SS/2B | B+ | 2013 |
| Tommy Joseph | #3 | C | B | 2014 |
| Heath Hembree | #4 | P | B | 2013 |
| Ehire Adrianza | #5 | SS | B | 2013 |
| Andrew Susac | #6 | C | B | 2014 |
| Kyle Crick | #7 | P | B | 2015 |
| Eric Surkamp | #8 | P | B- | 2012 |
| Francisco Peguero | #9 | OF | B- | 2013 |
| Hector Sanchez | #10 | C | C+ | 2012 |
| Charlie Culberson | #11 | 2B | C+ | 2013 |
| Conor Gillaspie | #12 | 3B | C+ | 2012 |
| Adalberto Mejia | #13 | P | C+ | 2015 |
| Clayton Blackburn | #14 | P | C+ | 2014 |
| Josh Osich | #15 | P | C+ | 2014 |
| Ricky Oropesa | #16 | 1B | C+ | 2014 |
| Mike Kickham | #17 | P | C+ | 2014 |
| Seth Rosin | #18 | P | C+ | 2014 |
| Jarrett Parker | #19 | OF | C | 2014 |
| Chris Dominguez | #20 | 3B | C | 2013 |
| Adam Duvall | #21 | 3B | C | 2014 |
| Hector Correa | #22 | P | C | 2014 |
| Joan Gregorio | #23 | P | C | 2016 |
| Brett Bochy | #24 | P | C | 2014 |
| Jesus Galindo | #25 | OF | C | 2015 |
| Jacob Dunnington | #26 | P | C | 2015 |
| Chuckie Jones | #27 | OF | C | 2016 |
| Shawn Payne | #28 | OF | C | 2016 |
| Rafael Rodriguez | #29 | OF | C | 2016 |
| Kendry Flores | #30 | P | C | 2016 |
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Prospect Talk: A Look at the Giants Prospects Rankings Around the Blogosphere
I have almost finished compiling my Top-30 list (not writing the posts, but actually coming up with the list). I have gone back and forth quite a bit on it, but I think by the time I finish the "2007 Draft Class" series, the list will be done, and I will start writing some posts on each one.
In the meantime, many other Giants blogs have already gotten a head start on me in terms of making their own Giants prospect lists. A lot of these are from blogs I like and respect, and I would have to be lying if they didn't have some influence on the "eventual" list here. So, if you haven't already, check out these other prospects lists if you want to get a full sense of what Giants nation thinks of prospects in the Giants farm system.
Dr. B's Top-50 Prospects at "When the Giants Come to Town."
I can wholeheartedly admit that Dr. B's blog is the best Giants minor league blog out there. This one pales in comparison. His annual prospects lists are in-depth, but still concise and he always generates good discussion in the comments sections of his posts (if you want to see the individual profiles of this year's list, check it out here). Additionally, you can tell he has a passion for minor league ball if he can make a prospect list that goes all the way to 50. And who came in No. 50? None other than Jean Delgado, a shortstop, of course! (Again...just goes to show you how knowledgeable of the Giants system he really is.)
Marc Hulet of Fangraphs' Top 15 San Francisco Giants Prospects
I'm a big fan of Hulet's Minor League work and how well he analyzes prospects and the draft. He's pretty straight forward in his approach, but he does make some interesting picks (Heath Hembree, who's going in the Top 5 in a lot of prospect lists is at No. 10 while shortstop Ehire Adrianza, who has dropped out of the Top 10 in some lists is at No. 5). Giants fans probably could get a little more comprehensive reading from other sources, and in reality, his lists are pretty streamlined because he has to do so many. That being said, for a good analysis of the Top 15, Hulet's work has been pretty good (and he always reviews his lists on a consistent basis too, which is always nice.)
Bay City Ball's 2012 Top 15 Prospect List Roundtable
This is probably my favorite of the bunch, though not really for the rankings but more for the "roundtable" way they discussed and agreed upon their rankings. It's amazing how BCB has grown from a one-man operation to a nice little staff of writers who all offer a variety of perspectives on the Giants. Definitely check this one out, just to read about how they share or differ on thoughts about certain prospects and how their rankings differ (some rankings were pretty crazy, both in a good and bad way).
Prospect "Nirvana" at Giants Nirvana
Formerly "Splashing Pumpkins," Julian at Giants Nirvana probably runs one of the better independent Giants blogs out there. His analysis is always spot on, and he's always been a big supporter here at OTF. During this time of the year, GN spares no cost when it comes to prospects, as Julian not only has his own Top 20 (20-11 here and 10-1 here), but another writer, Josh (he wasn't around during the Splashing Pumpkins days from what I can remember) has compiled a Top 30 of his own as well (30-21 and 20-11 are both up). Both have very interesting takes as they have a lot of differences in opinion on some of the prospects (Clayton Blackburn and Charlie Culberson were the ones with big differences in their rankings).
John Sickels' 2012 Top 20 Prospects for the Giants
I'm a big fan of Sickels. I like his approach in terms of how he grades his prospects (mixing scouting reports and analysis), I like the A-F grading system, and he is usually concise and straightforward in his analysis of players in the minors in general. He tends to favor high risk, high upside guys (especially pitchers), but for the most part, I usually am in agreement with his rankings, especially in the Giants system. Only disagreement I have with him? Not sure if I would put Andrew Susac at No. 4. Kinda high for a guy with no professional experience (he signed late and didn't play any ball last Summer).
Crazy Crabbers' Top 20 Prospects for 2012
Scott and his crew at CC do a good job. They always do a good job mixing sabermetric analysis with just general Giants fandom in their posts. Amazing that I still have a bio there considering I haven't posted there in like a year. But, that just goes to show you how good sports they are with this stuff. Anyways, I really like the format of their posts (looking at each prospects' best tool and their ceiling) as well as how they have integrated their minor league numbers into graph form. A solid series of posts that I know is only going to get better as they go down the list (they started from No. 1 and went down).
In the meantime, many other Giants blogs have already gotten a head start on me in terms of making their own Giants prospect lists. A lot of these are from blogs I like and respect, and I would have to be lying if they didn't have some influence on the "eventual" list here. So, if you haven't already, check out these other prospects lists if you want to get a full sense of what Giants nation thinks of prospects in the Giants farm system.
Dr. B's Top-50 Prospects at "When the Giants Come to Town."
I can wholeheartedly admit that Dr. B's blog is the best Giants minor league blog out there. This one pales in comparison. His annual prospects lists are in-depth, but still concise and he always generates good discussion in the comments sections of his posts (if you want to see the individual profiles of this year's list, check it out here). Additionally, you can tell he has a passion for minor league ball if he can make a prospect list that goes all the way to 50. And who came in No. 50? None other than Jean Delgado, a shortstop, of course! (Again...just goes to show you how knowledgeable of the Giants system he really is.)
Marc Hulet of Fangraphs' Top 15 San Francisco Giants Prospects
I'm a big fan of Hulet's Minor League work and how well he analyzes prospects and the draft. He's pretty straight forward in his approach, but he does make some interesting picks (Heath Hembree, who's going in the Top 5 in a lot of prospect lists is at No. 10 while shortstop Ehire Adrianza, who has dropped out of the Top 10 in some lists is at No. 5). Giants fans probably could get a little more comprehensive reading from other sources, and in reality, his lists are pretty streamlined because he has to do so many. That being said, for a good analysis of the Top 15, Hulet's work has been pretty good (and he always reviews his lists on a consistent basis too, which is always nice.)
Bay City Ball's 2012 Top 15 Prospect List Roundtable
This is probably my favorite of the bunch, though not really for the rankings but more for the "roundtable" way they discussed and agreed upon their rankings. It's amazing how BCB has grown from a one-man operation to a nice little staff of writers who all offer a variety of perspectives on the Giants. Definitely check this one out, just to read about how they share or differ on thoughts about certain prospects and how their rankings differ (some rankings were pretty crazy, both in a good and bad way).
Prospect "Nirvana" at Giants Nirvana
Formerly "Splashing Pumpkins," Julian at Giants Nirvana probably runs one of the better independent Giants blogs out there. His analysis is always spot on, and he's always been a big supporter here at OTF. During this time of the year, GN spares no cost when it comes to prospects, as Julian not only has his own Top 20 (20-11 here and 10-1 here), but another writer, Josh (he wasn't around during the Splashing Pumpkins days from what I can remember) has compiled a Top 30 of his own as well (30-21 and 20-11 are both up). Both have very interesting takes as they have a lot of differences in opinion on some of the prospects (Clayton Blackburn and Charlie Culberson were the ones with big differences in their rankings).
John Sickels' 2012 Top 20 Prospects for the Giants
I'm a big fan of Sickels. I like his approach in terms of how he grades his prospects (mixing scouting reports and analysis), I like the A-F grading system, and he is usually concise and straightforward in his analysis of players in the minors in general. He tends to favor high risk, high upside guys (especially pitchers), but for the most part, I usually am in agreement with his rankings, especially in the Giants system. Only disagreement I have with him? Not sure if I would put Andrew Susac at No. 4. Kinda high for a guy with no professional experience (he signed late and didn't play any ball last Summer).
Crazy Crabbers' Top 20 Prospects for 2012
Scott and his crew at CC do a good job. They always do a good job mixing sabermetric analysis with just general Giants fandom in their posts. Amazing that I still have a bio there considering I haven't posted there in like a year. But, that just goes to show you how good sports they are with this stuff. Anyways, I really like the format of their posts (looking at each prospects' best tool and their ceiling) as well as how they have integrated their minor league numbers into graph form. A solid series of posts that I know is only going to get better as they go down the list (they started from No. 1 and went down).
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Mixed Six: A Look at the Giants' 2007 Rule 4 Draft
This upcoming Rule 4 draft will mark the fifth anniversary of the 2007 draft. While everyone will remember that draft for the big names such as David Price, Jason Heyward and Matt Wieters (and most likely Mike Moustakas...I'm that big a fan), this draft was also a pretty significant one for the Giants.
In many ways, the end of the 2006 season signified the beginning of the end of the Barry Bonds era. The Giants canned Felipe Alou at the end of the season (the Giants finished 76-85; the Giants tried to make a playoff push by acquiring Shea Hillenbrand, but the deal ended up doing more harm than good), and hired Bruce Bochy, who was coming off a successful campaign for the rival Padres. Additionally, many of the Giants' mainstay players in 2006 opted for greener pastures in the off-season. Seasoned (and often injured) veterans such as Moises Alou and Steve Finley left San Francisco, and suddenly, the Giants' window of opportunity for competing in the NL West looked closed for at least the next couple of years. Yes, the Giants management did sign Barry Zito to a massive contract (a mistake the Giants are still paying for), but it was obvious by the start of Spring Training that the Giants were in rebuilding mode, even in Bonds' last year of his contract.
With the Post-Bonds era looming, Brian Sabean and his management team's biggest moves in 2007 had nothing to do with the Big League roster (sans the Zito deal of course; also getting rid of Matt Morris and his albatross contract wasn't bad either). Instead, the main goal for Sabean and Co. was to restock a farm system that had been left bare by numerous mid-season and off-season transactions in the recent past, and organizational flame outs in the Majors and Minors. (Does Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Lance Niekro and Eddy Martinez-Esteve ring any bells?) The 2007 was the right kind of draft to start such a rebuilding process, as the Giants had six (that's right SIX) picks in the first 51 slots of the first and supplemental rounds.
Yes, there was some talent in the Giants system going into 2007 (Matt Cain had made his debut already and Tim Lincecum was set to do so in 2007), but no one would question that behind their top two prospects (Lincecum and Cain) that the system was incredibly weak. So, in 2007, the Giants loaded up on talent, knowing that they had to get younger and build depth in their system if they ever wanted to compete when Bonds left town after the 2007 year.
The 2007 draft class, especially the first six picks, basically are a symbol of the start of the current mold of the Giants system Giants fans see today. Remember, this used to be an organization that preferred veterans to talent within the farm system during the early years of Sabean's regime. However, that took a turn in 2007 (though you could argue Cain and Lincecum really planted the seeds; the 2007 draft class burst the new plan through the dirt) as the organization went through a huge overhaul in terms of how they evaluated and signed players. As most Giants fans will tell you, the plan obviously proved to be a success (2010 World Series).
I could do this in one post, but I don't feel like I would be doing the subject much justice. So instead, I will be breaking down the analysis of the 2007 draft class into four posts. Here is how the breakdown will look like:
Part I: The "First Rounders" (Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson).
Part II: The "Future Duo Up the Middle" (Nick Noonan and Charlie Culberson).
Part III: The "Tools" Guy and the "College" Guy (Wendell Fairley and Jackson Williams).
Part IV: The "Outsiders" (Notable guys drafted outside the first and supplemental round).
Each part will be posted within a couple of days within each other. As you can see from the list above, the results from that 2007 draft have been a bit mixed. Nonetheless, despite the results, the draft above started a process within the Giants system that has not only produced better teams at the Big League level (three straight winning seasons for the Giants from 2009-2011), but a better framework for the organization in terms of acquiring talent, be it through the draft, free agency or international signings.
I also find this all interesting because one has to wonder when the Giants will undergo another change in organizational philosophy similar to 2007. The safe bet seems to be going into the 2014 season, when Lincecum will be a free agent. Will the Giants continue the ride the train that they first started churning in 2007? Or are they preparing for Lincecum to chase the dollar and perhaps prepare to change their identity again?
As for the questions above, only time will tell. I'm not a fortune teller, and as stated before on this blog, I focus more on the Giants' Minor League rosters here, not the Big League one (go to Giants Nirvana, Crazy Crabbers, McCovey Chronicles, or Bay City Ball for that). For now, I'm going to be looking at and analyzing that 2007 class that helped start the process that Giants fans currently see now.
I think that's enough on my plate for now.
In many ways, the end of the 2006 season signified the beginning of the end of the Barry Bonds era. The Giants canned Felipe Alou at the end of the season (the Giants finished 76-85; the Giants tried to make a playoff push by acquiring Shea Hillenbrand, but the deal ended up doing more harm than good), and hired Bruce Bochy, who was coming off a successful campaign for the rival Padres. Additionally, many of the Giants' mainstay players in 2006 opted for greener pastures in the off-season. Seasoned (and often injured) veterans such as Moises Alou and Steve Finley left San Francisco, and suddenly, the Giants' window of opportunity for competing in the NL West looked closed for at least the next couple of years. Yes, the Giants management did sign Barry Zito to a massive contract (a mistake the Giants are still paying for), but it was obvious by the start of Spring Training that the Giants were in rebuilding mode, even in Bonds' last year of his contract.
With the Post-Bonds era looming, Brian Sabean and his management team's biggest moves in 2007 had nothing to do with the Big League roster (sans the Zito deal of course; also getting rid of Matt Morris and his albatross contract wasn't bad either). Instead, the main goal for Sabean and Co. was to restock a farm system that had been left bare by numerous mid-season and off-season transactions in the recent past, and organizational flame outs in the Majors and Minors. (Does Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Lance Niekro and Eddy Martinez-Esteve ring any bells?) The 2007 was the right kind of draft to start such a rebuilding process, as the Giants had six (that's right SIX) picks in the first 51 slots of the first and supplemental rounds.
Yes, there was some talent in the Giants system going into 2007 (Matt Cain had made his debut already and Tim Lincecum was set to do so in 2007), but no one would question that behind their top two prospects (Lincecum and Cain) that the system was incredibly weak. So, in 2007, the Giants loaded up on talent, knowing that they had to get younger and build depth in their system if they ever wanted to compete when Bonds left town after the 2007 year.
The 2007 draft class, especially the first six picks, basically are a symbol of the start of the current mold of the Giants system Giants fans see today. Remember, this used to be an organization that preferred veterans to talent within the farm system during the early years of Sabean's regime. However, that took a turn in 2007 (though you could argue Cain and Lincecum really planted the seeds; the 2007 draft class burst the new plan through the dirt) as the organization went through a huge overhaul in terms of how they evaluated and signed players. As most Giants fans will tell you, the plan obviously proved to be a success (2010 World Series).
I could do this in one post, but I don't feel like I would be doing the subject much justice. So instead, I will be breaking down the analysis of the 2007 draft class into four posts. Here is how the breakdown will look like:
Part I: The "First Rounders" (Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson).
Part II: The "Future Duo Up the Middle" (Nick Noonan and Charlie Culberson).
Part III: The "Tools" Guy and the "College" Guy (Wendell Fairley and Jackson Williams).
Part IV: The "Outsiders" (Notable guys drafted outside the first and supplemental round).
Each part will be posted within a couple of days within each other. As you can see from the list above, the results from that 2007 draft have been a bit mixed. Nonetheless, despite the results, the draft above started a process within the Giants system that has not only produced better teams at the Big League level (three straight winning seasons for the Giants from 2009-2011), but a better framework for the organization in terms of acquiring talent, be it through the draft, free agency or international signings.
I also find this all interesting because one has to wonder when the Giants will undergo another change in organizational philosophy similar to 2007. The safe bet seems to be going into the 2014 season, when Lincecum will be a free agent. Will the Giants continue the ride the train that they first started churning in 2007? Or are they preparing for Lincecum to chase the dollar and perhaps prepare to change their identity again?
As for the questions above, only time will tell. I'm not a fortune teller, and as stated before on this blog, I focus more on the Giants' Minor League rosters here, not the Big League one (go to Giants Nirvana, Crazy Crabbers, McCovey Chronicles, or Bay City Ball for that). For now, I'm going to be looking at and analyzing that 2007 class that helped start the process that Giants fans currently see now.
I think that's enough on my plate for now.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
The OTF Top 30 Prospect List...
So, I am going to update the prospect list this go-around. Again, prospect lists are a crap-shoot for a most part. Check out every prospect handbook from John Sickels, to Baseball America, to Baseball Prospectus and you'll realize how much fluctuation there is from year to year. Guys progress, guys regress, guys get hurt, guys retire and join the priesthood, etc. Projecting prospects sometimes is like projecting Nic Cage's next movie: you have an idea for the most part (in Cage's example, it's gonna be bad), but how exactly it will pan out is hard to determine (is it going to be "Wicker Man" bad or perhaps just "The Rock" bad?).
I am not going to start writing profiles for the list until sometime in February though out of a couple of reasons. One, that is when I will be getting a couple of publications that I will feel will be crucial in the list-making process (BA's prospect handbook and the MiLB Annalyst produced by Baseball HQ.com). Once I read through those, as well as doing other research on my end, I feel like I can confidently make a list that should be presentable.
The second reason I'm refraining from starting the list early is due to hot stove stuff. Though it's winding down, you never know who's going to get traded and such. For example, if I was a Yankees fan and I made the list two days ago, I would have been screwed because Jesus Montero would have been my number one. As we all know, that certainly is not the case anymore due to him being traded for Michael Pineda. So, waiting it out isn't a bad thing, and allows me to make a list that will be as accurate as possible come Spring Training.
Anyways, as stated on the page, by no means am I a Minor League guru. Just a fan who has an extreme interest in prospects, and has time to kill in between grading and teaching. In the meantime, I will write profiles on guys who will miss the cut because they have dropped out due to regression or poor seasons or perhaps they have graduated as prospects (see Brandon Belt). While I can't make the list just yet, I think I can say definitely who is not on the list, and that should give this blog some posts and articles to chew on before the actual lists comes out. If you really need a list to digest, check out Dr. B's lists and write ups at When the Giants Come to Town. I know I have been reading up on his stuff daily and I will definitely admit he's the best amateur minor league analyst of the Giants system out there on the Web.
Again, don't know how many are following still, but if you are, hopefully there won't be any long breaks anymore! I know that is something I have to work on!
I am not going to start writing profiles for the list until sometime in February though out of a couple of reasons. One, that is when I will be getting a couple of publications that I will feel will be crucial in the list-making process (BA's prospect handbook and the MiLB Annalyst produced by Baseball HQ.com). Once I read through those, as well as doing other research on my end, I feel like I can confidently make a list that should be presentable.
The second reason I'm refraining from starting the list early is due to hot stove stuff. Though it's winding down, you never know who's going to get traded and such. For example, if I was a Yankees fan and I made the list two days ago, I would have been screwed because Jesus Montero would have been my number one. As we all know, that certainly is not the case anymore due to him being traded for Michael Pineda. So, waiting it out isn't a bad thing, and allows me to make a list that will be as accurate as possible come Spring Training.
Anyways, as stated on the page, by no means am I a Minor League guru. Just a fan who has an extreme interest in prospects, and has time to kill in between grading and teaching. In the meantime, I will write profiles on guys who will miss the cut because they have dropped out due to regression or poor seasons or perhaps they have graduated as prospects (see Brandon Belt). While I can't make the list just yet, I think I can say definitely who is not on the list, and that should give this blog some posts and articles to chew on before the actual lists comes out. If you really need a list to digest, check out Dr. B's lists and write ups at When the Giants Come to Town. I know I have been reading up on his stuff daily and I will definitely admit he's the best amateur minor league analyst of the Giants system out there on the Web.
Again, don't know how many are following still, but if you are, hopefully there won't be any long breaks anymore! I know that is something I have to work on!
Friday, January 13, 2012
Bringing Back Optioned To Fresno
I don't know if anyone is still reading this, but after a long hiatus, I am going to start posting again at OTF. I will start making wholesale changes to the site's design (especially the rankings section), but with things in my life calmed down some and my interest in Minor League ball suddenly re-inspired, I figured it would be a good time to bring things back here. I don't think posts will be as frequent as they used to be, but my goal is to post anywhere from two-three times a week, which I think is do-able considering my schedule now.
Anyways, will probably have a first post sometime tomorrow. Hopefully I can get back to the point where OTF was a well-oiled machine. Can't wait for the 2012 minor league and major league seasons to start for the Orange and Black!
Anyways, will probably have a first post sometime tomorrow. Hopefully I can get back to the point where OTF was a well-oiled machine. Can't wait for the 2012 minor league and major league seasons to start for the Orange and Black!
Sunday, June 5, 2011
OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 14, Heath Hembree, RHP
It's been a while since I added to the list. Mostly I have been busy with some work stuff, so that is why the posts have been so inconsistent as of late. However, I should have most of June to post, so I'll have free time to make two posts a day starting in a week.
Anyways, number 14 in the list is Heath Hembree, a power reliever who may have the best stuff out of any pitcher in the Giants minor league system. That being said, despite his power repertoire, Hembree is still a raw commodity of sorts, and there is some concern how he will fare as he moves up the Giants system because his pitch repertoire is so limited as of now.
Hembree originally started his career at South Carolina, but transferred to junior college after 2008 and then made the transition to the College of Charleston in 2010. In his only year in Charleston, he displayed amazing strikeout stuff, as he punched out 42 batters in 29 innings of work. However, despite his strong ability to strike guys out, he also had some control and command problems, as he posted an ERA of 6.52, a WHIP of 1.76, a BB/9 of 5.6 and a K/BB ratio of 2.3. Still though, despite the limited innings in college, scouts were impressed by his stuff and ability, as Baseball America said this in their profile of Hembree in their Prospect Handbook:
"Hembree was a draft curiosity as a seldom-used closer at the College of Charleston, with rumors in the scouting community that he could hit 100 mph. But he also walked 18 in 29 innings and didn't have much track record, and he missed his senior year of high school with a torn ACL he sustained in a football game."
Despite the questions, his size (6-foot, 4-inches and 205 pounds) and velocity prompted the Giants to take a waiver on him in the fifth round of the 2010 draft. In his debut season in Arizona, Hembree struck out 22 batters in 11 innings, and posted an ERA and WHIP of 0.82. What was even more surprising was Hembree's newfound control as he walked zero batters in his 11 innings of work (that's right ZERO).
Of course, 11 innings is such a short sample, but the strong performance in rookie ball suddenly garnered him some attention from prospect analysts everywhere. Baseball America ranked him as the 19th best prospect in the Giants system in their Prospect Handbook, the Minor League Baseball Analyst rated him as the 14th best Giants prospect, and John Sickels ranked him 17 in his Giants Top-20 list. Even ESPN prospect analyst and former Blue Jays front office member Keith Law said Hembree was the Giants' "sleeper" prospect in 2011. This is what Law said in his writeup about Hembree:
"Heath Hembree was a fifth round pick who barely pitched this Spring for College of Charleston, then dominated the Arizona League in his brief time there, striking out 22 of 41 batters without a walk. He hit 98 repeatedly in instructional league in September."
While there was some pressure on Hembree to perform this year with the influx of higher expectations, he has stepped it up and performed admirably this season in the Cal League. He is posting a 0.87 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 20.2 innings of work. Furthermore, the strikeout stuff and solid control and command he displayed in Arizona is still evident in San Jose, as he has struck out 38 batters, walked only 9 and posted a K/BB ratio of 4.22. Hembree has been the Giants' go-to guy in the ninth, as he has accumulated 18 saves this year.
There is a lot to like about Hembree. He is a big, strong pitcher with a power fastball and a power slider (it was graded a four-plus by Rob Gordon in the Minor League Baseball Analyst 2011 annual). Furthermore, he knows how to make batters miss, he doesn't give up many hits (he has only a H/9 of 7.0 this year) and his control and command have been sterling thus far. The only concern I have is that I am concerned about his limited pitch repertoire. He's a two-pitch pitcher for the most part, though there have been reports that he has added a changeup to his arsenal. (Apparently in instructional league the Giants asked him to pitch his changeup 90 percent of the time, and according to Baseball America, it wasn't a "wasted effort.") However, one has to wonder how a two-pitch pitcher will do as he advances in the Giants system. Double-A will be a very telling sign of how he'll project as a pitcher, though considering how limited his experience is on the mound in the past few years, I doubt we'll see Hembree earn a promotion to Richmond this season. He'll probably transition to the Eastern League sometime next year, simply because I'm sure the Giants brass wants to see how he can pitch over a full season at one level.
Hembree is still relatively young, as he is only 22 years old and just a year removed from college. That bodes well in his favor, and allows the Giants to stay patient with Hembree and develop him as a pitcher. They don't need to rush him, and that will only result in good things for Hembree as he continues to gain more professional pitching experience.
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Farm Watch: Runzler Starting, Verdugo Sizzling, Peguero Debuts, Willoughby Steady, and DSL Begins
So for this edition of the Farm Watch, I add a new wrinkle as I will recap the week's worth of Dominican Summer League games as well. I don't know what I'm going to do with the headlines when the Arizona Rookie League and Short-Season begin, but I guess I'll deal with that bridge when I come to it.
Fresno Grizzlies, 23-33 going into June 4th
Richmond Flying Squirrels, 25-29 going into June 4th
San Jose Giants, 38-17 going into June 4th
Augusta Green Jackets, 23-32 going into June 4th
DSL Giants, 5-1 going into June 4th
Fresno Grizzlies, 23-33 going into June 4th
- The big story in Fresno was the promotion of Santiago Casilla and the demotion of Dan Runzler. However, while the demotion wasn't a story in itself, the subplot of Runzler being a starting pitcher with the Grizzlies was what grabbed everyone's attention. Runzler moved up quickly in the Giants system as a reliever, for in 2009, he went from Augusta all the way to the Big Leagues after dominating in the late innings in every stop in the farm system. However, the Giants are concerned about his pitch repertoire and how he has kind of plateaued a bit since his impressive callup in 2009. Runzler has only made two starts prior to this year (both rehab appearances where he only went a couple of innings) as the Giants have taken it easy with him, evidenced by the Grizzlies held him to a 40-pitch limit. He only faced eight batters on June 3rd. He walked three, but struck out two and didn't allow a hit in the limited work. The Giants are hoping Runzler can have similar success like Ryan Verdugo, who transitioned to a starter this year after being primarily used as a reliever in his minor league career.
- Marc Kroon was put in a dilemma recently, as he had an opportunity to opt out of his contract on June 1st if he didn't make the Giants roster by this time. Kroon apparently had an offer from a Japanese team (he pitched for the Yomiuri Giants and Yokohama Bay Stars in Japan), and considering he isn't on the 40-man roster, Kroon's opportunity to break into the Giants bullpen seems bleak. However, he decided to stay with the Grizzlies, with the hope that he could get a callup later in the year. The stay has paid off, as he has a 2.08 ERA in his last 10 appearances, with nine strikeouts in 8.2 IP.
- With Brandon Belt gone, Thomas Neal has picked up the slack offensively for the Grizzlies. He has continued his hot hitting, as he his currently posting an OPS of 1.013 in 83 plate appearances. Neal is an athletic, toolsy outfielder who was rated the seventh best prospect in the Giants system going into 2011 according to Baseball America. Right now, he seems to be destined to stay in Fresno until the rosters expand in September, but Neal is on the right track and is an enticing player who could bring some value to the Giants roster in the near future.
Richmond Flying Squirrels, 25-29 going into June 4th
- The Flying Squirrels offense is continuing to struggle to score runs. How bad are they? Justin Christian, a 31-year-old journeyman outfielder is leading the team in OPS at .680. Yeah. That's some major offensive struggles. On a positive note, Christian is a nice story, as he provides a "Crash Davis-esque" presence to this Richmond roster. He went undrafted out of Southeast Missouri State and ended up playing in the Frontier League (an independent baseball league) for two years before he broke into the Minor Leagues. Christian has bounced around quite a bit in his professional career, as he has played in every level in the Yankees minor league system since 2004, and he had a brief stint with the Norfolk Tides, the Orioles' Triple-A club in 2009. Christian's at-best scenario at this point would be a callup to Fresno, but his numbers aren't exactly suggesting a promotion anytime soon.
- Remember when I said Verdugo was coming off one of his best performances of the year when he struck out 10 in 6.1 IP on May 23rd? Well, Verdugo topped that with an eight-inning, 10 strikeout performance on June 2nd. Unlike the May 23rd start though, Verdugo showed exceptional control and command as he only allowed one walk and one hit in the win. Eric Surkamp is getting all the attention in Richmond this season, but Verdugo may have the higher ceiling. He has better stuff than Surkamp, and if he can continue to show the command he showed on June 2nd, then he can certainly close that gap between himself and Surkamp soon.
- The one guy I have paid attention to closely over the past couple of years is Sharlon Schoop. Schoop made some headlines in 2009 when he played considerable innings for the Netherlands team in the World Baseball Classic (remember, the Netherlands upset the favored Dominican Republic twice). Schoop has always had an interesting tool set as a prospect and he's capable of playing multiple positions in the field, but he just hasn't put it together at the plate. Last year, he showed flashes of progress in the Eastern League, as he hit .273 with a .673 OPS in a 199 plate appearances with the Flying Squirrels. However, he has taken a tremendous step back this year, as he is hitting only .159 with a .427 OPS in 69 plate appearances. Schoop has some talent, but it often goes unrealized, and it is unlikely that he'll ever be a serious prospect in the Giants system.
San Jose Giants, 38-17 going into June 4th
- In addition to Pablo Sandoval making his San Jose return in a rehab stint, Francisco Peguero made his anticipated 2011 debut in a rehab stint of his own. Peguero is one of the Giants' top outfielder prospects, as he was rated the fourth best prospect in the Giants system according to Baseball America. In his first two games in 2011, Peguero has five hits in 10 at-bats. He also has three strikeouts, but if Peguero can continue to hit in this rehab stint, it will only be a matter of time before he makes the transition to the Eastern League. Last year, Peguero hit .329 with a .846 OPS in 538 plate appearances with San Jose. He also tallied 10 home runs, 16 triples, 19 doubles and 40 stolen bases. In terms of skill, he is a five-tool caliber player who is still relatively young (he's only 23). That being said, his plate approach will have to improve, as he only posted a BB/K ratio of 0.20 a year ago. Peguero doesn't strikeout very much (17.3 percent strikeout rate), but the walk rate is going to have to improve somewhat (3.3 percent last year) if he wants to continue to transition his Cal League success to the Eastern League and eventually Major League level.
- Ryan Cavan is starting to show that he should be a prospect of note. He is not an elite prospect by any means (he was a 16th round pick in the 2009 draft), but he is quietly having a very good year as the second baseman for the SJ Giants. He is hitting .277 with an OPS of .809 and he has has six home runs, 37 RBI and seven stolen bases on eight attempts. Cavan may be benefiting from the hitter-friendly Cal League, but he did hit .283 with an .803 OPS and added 17 home runs and 79 RBI in 608 plate appearances for the Green Jackets. Thus, Cavan is a nice middle-infielder prospect who could give Charlie Culberson and Nick Noonan a run for their money. Of course, one has to see how he does in the Eastern League first. If he shows progress in Richmond either this year or next season, Cavan could be on the fast track real quick.
- Zach Wheeler is the Giants' most dynamic pitcher, but Craig Westcott has been the most solid, as he is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 60 IP. Westcott is old for the Cal League (he's 25 years old), and he doesn't have intimidating strikeout stuff (he only has a strikeout rate of 4.5). That being said, he displays good control (1.6 walk rate) and solid command (2.73 K/BB ratio), and has definitely been a boost to this Giants team that is positioned for another Cal League title.
Augusta Green Jackets, 23-32 going into June 4th
- Carlos Willoughby is older than most high-profile Latin American prospects (he's 22 years old and he's only been playing in the states since last year), and he doesn't possess a lot of pop (he only has a slugging percentage of .353). However, he is a solid contact hitter who has displayed a good plate approach and plenty of speed and efficiency on the basepaths. This year he is hitting .284 with a .379 OBP and .733 OPS, and he has 23 stolen bases on 28 attempts. Willoughby's tool set reminds me of Eugenio Velez, but unlike Velez, his strike zone recognition is very good. His ability to draw a walk and get on base should make up for his lack of power, and hopefully, Willoughby will continue to progress as he moves up the Giants system.
- Adam Duvall is a big bopper. He doesn't hit for high average (his minor league average in two years is .245), and he doesn't draw walks (only 36 walks in 456 career plate appearances). However, Duvall has tremendous raw power, as he has hit 12 home runs and posted a .476 slugging percentage in 239 plate appearances this year in the Sally. Defensively, Duvall has struggled a bit at the hot corner, as he has a fielding percentage of .899 and a RF/G of 2.84. That being said, Duvall's power tool set is enticing, and could make him a bit of a sleeper prospect.
- After giving up seven runs and five hits in a May 2nd appearance, Edward Concepcion has finally regained himself over the past month. His ERA is down to 4.23, and his strikeout rate is up to 10.1 percent. The walks are still an issue (6.8 BB/9), and he still gives up a lot of hits (9.8 H/9), but Concepcion at least has showed that he is capable of bouncing back after a rough stretch. I'm not sure if he'll be a decent prospect, especially considering he's 23 and still in Single-A. However, I like his stuff and his ability to strike batters out.
DSL Giants, 5-1 going into June 4th
- Top Latin American signee Adalberto Mejia is off to a very good start in the DSL. A tall 18-year-old lefty, Mejia has only allowed six hits and one run in 11 IP. He has showed dominant stuff (10 strikeouts) as well as excellent control (only one walk) in his first two professional starts. It's early in the year of course, but considering he was the Opening Day starter for the DSL Giants, it's obvious that the Giants organization has a lot of confidence and hope in the pitching prospect. So far, he has not disappointed.
- Alberto Robles is off to a sizzling start at the plate for the DSL Giants. He is hitting .348 with an .879 OPS in 27 plate appearances. He also has showed good speed (three stolen bases), though he will have to improve his jumps (he has gotten caught three times). With four walks and only three strikeouts, Robles has displayed a good plate approach early this year, and hopefully, the 20-year-old can parlay this hot start into a solid 2011 campaign.
- The DSL Giants are 5-1 this year and have looked impressive to begin the year, especially on the pitching end. They are only allowing 1.67 R/G and they have a team ERA of 1.07, both best in the DSL. They will have to improve the hitting, as their 4.50 R/G is in the middle of the pack, but it is a small sample, and there is still plenty of games to be played in South Boca Chica for the Gigantes.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
