OTF MLB Draft Peek: LHP Brian Johnson and RHP Jake Barrett

Though we are still months away, it's always a good time to be looking at potential candidates in the upcoming MLB Draft. With the college baseball season starting to gain steam, a lot of Draft and Prospect blogs and sites out there are already coming out with mock drafts. I decided to take a look at two college arms who were projected to go in the Giants slot at No. 20. They are pitchers Brian Johnson and Jake Barrett, who come from established college powerhouses Florida and Arizona State, respectively.


Brian Johnson, Left-Handed Pitcher, University of Florida



Why You Should Know About Johnson:

Through The Fence has Johnson going at No. 20 in their latest mock draft, and safe to say, Johnson is an intriguing arm who could have a lot of versatility as a prospect. For starters, Johnson is a two-way player for the Gators who also plays first base in addition to pitching. While he has produced solid numbers at the plate for the Gators over his collegiate career (he posted a .307/.381/.464 slash last season with five home runs in 192 at-bats last season and this year his slash is .283/.316/.453 with two home runs), he holds a lot more value in this draft as a pitcher. Last year, he made 15 starts and 16 appearances for the Gators and posted an 8-3 record with a 3.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. This season, Johnson has gotten off to a good start, as he is 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA after six starts.

Johnson's main strength as a pitcher is his control and command. Last year, he posted a K/BB ratio of 4.8 and a walk rate of 1.69. This year, his plus tools haven't missed a beat, as his K/BB ratio currently sits at four and he has only allowed seven free passes in 31.2 innings pitched. Johnson isn't a strikeout artist by any means, as his K/9 was 8.13 last year and 8.08 this year, but with his control, the strikeout numbers may be good enough for him to be a solid Major League starting pitcher.

The main weakness with Johnson though is that he has proved to be hittable in his collegiate career. Last year, he had a hits allowed per nine innings of 8.81 and this season has proved to be similar, as his H/9 rate currently sits at 8.08 (the same as his K/9). While he was able to keep the ball in the park last year (he only gave up four home runs all of last year), this year, his H/9 rate has hurt him more, as he leads the Gators pitching staff in home runs allowed with five (already one more than his entire total from last year). Granted, with the move from metal to wood bats, one can imagine that Johnson will be able to keep the ball in the park a little better as a professional. That being said, how well Johnson will be able to induce groundballs will be the key to whether or not he will be successful as a professional pitcher.

Johnson sports a three pitch arsenal with a fastball that sits in the low 90's, a changeup and a slider that projects to be a plus pitch at the next level, according to TTF writer Dan Kirby. At six-foot, four inches and 235 pounds, Johnson has a big, impressive frame, and Kirby noted that he has a great mound presence and an advanced feel for pitching. Last summer, he also gained valuable experience playing for the USA Collegiate Team, though he was mostly lauded for his performance at the plate (he did hit three home runs, including the game winner against Japan).

There are some concerns that come with Johnson as a potential pick, with the issues mostly centering on hitters ability to make contact off him and a head injury he suffered from an errant throw by catcher Mike Zunino during a game against Georgia last season. Nonetheless, with his impeccable command and versatility as a two way player, Johnson could be an intriguing pick for the Giants should he be available at the 20th slot in this year's draft.



Jake Barrett, Right-Handed Pitcher, Arizona State University



Why You Should Know About Barrett:

Selected 99th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2009 draft, Barrett is a polished college arm that was projected to go in the Giants slot according to Pine Tar Press writer Ty Youngfelt. Much like Johnson, Barrett sports solid command and tools as a pitcher, and could help stock a Giants system that is thin on pitching after numerous trades (Tim Alderson, Scott Barnes, Zack Wheeler, Henry Sosa) and graduations (Madison Bumgarner, Dan Runzler).

Barrett  has solid tools as a pitcher, as he sports a fastball that sits in the 90-94 MPH range along with a curveball and splitter that have above average potential, according to MLB Draft Countdown. MLBDC was particularly high about Barrett entering this season, as they noted this in their profile on him last June:

"Toronto was so high on him back in 2009 because he had a big-league body (6’3″, 225 lbs), a good fastball (90-94 mph) and two pitches (curveball and splitter) with above-average potential...He showed great poise stepping into a very talented bullpen during his freshman year, pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 28 outings and striking out 43 batters in 29.1 innings...

This year, Barrett made the jump to the rotation and found instant success. His first start of the season saw him toss six-innings of shutout ball, giving up only three hits while striking out six. He finished the season with a 7-4 record, a 4.14 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 76 innings. He tossed one complete-game shutout against Cal late in the season....Barrett is going to be one of the most big-league ready of any of the college pitchers in the 2012 class, making him a perfect fit."

So far this season, the Sun Devils have regulated Barrett back to the bullpen, as he has taken over the role as the team's primary closer. While the change in roles certainly hasn't helped his stock, he has relished in the role, striking out 14 batters and allowing only 2 walks in 11.2 innings pitched this year. He also has two saves and is posting a 2.31 ERA after nine appearances to begin the 2012 collegiate season.

Much like Johnson, hitters have been able to make contact against Barrett at a decent rate over his amateur career. Last year, he posted a H/9 percentage of 8.88 and this year he has allowed 8 hits in his 11.2 innings of work. The high hit rates haven't hurt him as much, as he has kept the ball in the park as evidenced by his 0.36 HR/9 rate last year, and one home run this season. That being said, much like Johnson, how well he will be able to induce groundballs will be key to his development as a professional pitcher, especially since his control isn't as solid as Johnson's (he posted a BB/9 of 2.49 last year).

If he stays as a reliever this year, then I highly doubt the Giants will pick up Barrett at the 20th slot (Youngfelt made his Mock Draft in February before the college season started and I assume he thought Barrett was going to stay in the rotation). That being said, if Barrett somehow make the transition back to the rotation this year, then he could be a viable pick at the 20th slot. There is no doubt about his tools, and in limited innings of work, he can prove to be a dominant pitcher who can strike out hitters in bunches. Furthermore, at six-foot, three inches and 230 pounds, he has a big solid frame that projects well for the future. However, it's obvious stamina is an issue for him, as evidenced by his role change this year. Even if he pitches the whole year in the bullpen, Barrett could still have a future as a starting pitcher as professional, but the Giants and Barrett himself are going to have to work on his conditioning in order for him to be able to log a lot of innings as a starter over the course of a full professional season.

Mixed Six: A Look at 2007 First Rounders Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson

As promised, here is the first piece on the 2007 Draft series. The first part unsurprisingly is on the Giants' first two picks in the draft: left handed pitcher Madison Bumgarner (who went 10th overall in the draft) and right handed pitcher Tim Alderson (who went 22nd overall). Both were high upside arms out of high school, and though they were projected to be a couple years away at the soonest from contributing at the Big League level, many Giants fans dreamed of rotation headlining Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner and Alderson for years to come.

After years of development in the minors though, the two pitchers have panned out in remarkably different ways. One is a World Series stud, the other hasn't played above Double-A. One was arguably the best pitcher last year in a rotation with not one or two but three All-Star pitchers, while the other one performed so poorly in 2010 that their team sent him from Double-A to High-A.

I think it's safe to say we all know who's who.

Let's take a deeper look though at their individual profiles though.



Madison Bumgarner: "The World Series Hero"

Bumgarner went 10th overall in the 2007 MLB Rule 4 Draft. At the time, there was some good arms coming out of the draft, as David Price went No. 1 overall and Jarrod Parker (formerly the Diamondbacks' top prospect) went in the slot before Bumgarner. At the time, Bumgarner was young and just out of high school, but scouts liked what he brought to the table as a big (six-foot, five inches, 227 pounds) left-handed pitcher with Top-of-the-rotation potential.

A lot of Giants fans though weren't exactly thrilled however with the selection of the pick. Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town was adamantly against the drafting of Bumgarner prior to draft day (as stated by OGC in his post about the Bumgarner selection), and even OGC himself had some choice things to say in his "disappointment" of Bumgarner going in the Giants' slot. Here is what he said about the pick:
 

"I was disapppointed by the selection of Madison Bumgarner. Not to the point of wanting to throw myself down the stairs, as DrB on MCC said he would if the Giants selected him, but I had been hoping to get some offensive help from the #10 pick. I was really hoping that Wieters would fall to us, but I guess that was wishful thinking. But there was a bunch of top offensive help available at #10, Beau Mills, Jason Heyward, Matt Dominguez, who were consensus top picks where you couldn't go wrong - in the post analysis - selecting one of them."

Furthermore, OGC also pointed out to Bumgarner's lack of breaking stuff as a bit of a red flag, especially considering Sabean said after draft day that they were planning to "fast track" him in the Giants system. Of course, OGC was realistic that he could develop one, especially since he was so young at the time. Here's what he said about Bumgarner developing his secondary pitches:

"Bumgarner doesn't have a curve or slider not because he could not master them, but because he just started pitching them just one year ago, because his father wouldn't allow him to. Well, now he will get professional training on the proper way to throw them, plus he can speak with Zito, Cain, and Lincecum about it because they all have a great curve ball, and probably with Lowry and Misch about their changeups. And he's only 17 (18 in August), so he still has some physical maturation coming, which should add a few MPH to his already good fastball plus with professional coaching, he should be able to master the curve and/or slider with a few years under his belt."

The issue though for most Giants fans at the time (OGC included) though was not really the fact that they picked Bumgarner, but rather that they picked Bumgarner when it was obvious that they needed to restock their system with position players. At the time, Dominguez and Heyward were available in the draft, and to some (if not most Giants fans), the common thought was that either of those guys would have brought more value because of the lack of position talent in the Giants system. As for Bumgarner, while he was a good pitcher, he would still be a No. 3 guy behind Lincecum and Cain and, at the time, would probably be a No. 3 or 4 guy depending on how Noah Lowry developed (which ended up being 3 because Lowry got hurt and his career fell off a cliff).

Despite the controversy with the selection, Bumgarner was ranked highly by baseball publications as Baseball America ranked him the No. 3 prospect in the Giants system before even playing a game. Bumgarner made good on the high praise and the Top-10 selection as he absolutely dominated the Sally. In 24 games and a 141.2 IP, he went 15-3 with a 1.46 ERA, 1.71 FIP, 0.93 WHIP and a 164 strikeouts. He showed impeccable command (his K/BB ratio was 7.81 and his BABIP was around average at .304), and his control was also very mature for a kid just out of high school (1.33 BB/9). Without a doubt, Bumgarner was dominating in every way in Low Single-A and it was safe to say the Giants had a lot to look forward to with the former Top-10 pick.

With such a dominating 2008 campaign with the Green Jackets, his stock rose considerably going into the 2009 season. Baseball America ranked him the No. 9 prospect overall, and a popular argument amongst prospect experts was whether he or Baltimore Orioles left-handed prospect Brian Matusz would have the better pitching career. Bumgarner started out the year in San Jose in High-A, but the league proved to be too easy for him as he dominated in just five starts. In 24.1 IP, he posted an ERA of 1.48, a FIP of 2.05, a WHIP of 0.89 and a K/BB ratio of 5.75. Though his strikeout numbers did decline a little (his K/9 rate in the 24.1 innings sample was 8.51, almost seven points down from the previous season), but considering the Cal League was a hitter's league, there wasn't too much concern about the initial dip in San Jose.

After five starts, the Giants moved Bumgarner up to Double-A with the Connecticut Defenders (the team moved to Richmond the following season). Bumgarner pitched a lot of innings (107) and posted good traditional numbers (1.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9-1 record) in the Eastern League, but there were some red flags raised during his 2009 campaign with the Defenders.

The biggest concern was his dip in dominance rate (K/9), as it fell to 5.80, an almost 10 point drop from the previous year. While he was still showing good control (his BB/9 was 2.42), the huge regression in K/9 rate from Augusta left him with a K/BB ratio (2.30) that looked a whole lot less impressive than the gaudy 7.81 ratio he put up in the Sally. Hence, a lot of questions started to get asked about Bumgarner's development. How was his velocity holding up? Was he developing his secondary pitches? Are hitters figuring him out? Is he going through some minor injury issues that fans and writers aren't aware of?

All those questions became amplified when the Giants called him up for an emergency spot start late in the 2009 season. Though Bumgarner pitched admirably in a 76 pitch start (he went 5.1 IP and allowed five hits, one walk and struck out four while only giving up two runs), the big alarm that went off was Bumgarner's dip in velocity. While reports said that he was hitting the mid-90's range in the minors, Bumgarner's fastball velocity averaged only 88.1 MPH in his first Major League appearance. Suddenly, many people began wondering if Bumgarner's stuff and velocity in the minors were exaggerated, simply to raise his stock as a prospect in the system. Management claimed though that the drop in velocity was a temporary thing, and that he was just suffering from fatigue after pitching so many innings in 2008 and 2009 as a teenager.

Unfortunately, come Spring Training in 2010, things did not start off well for Bumgarner. The velocity did not go up as expected, as Bumgarner was hitting the 87-89 MPH range on the radar guns and he also put up very uninspired numbers during the Spring as well, as he allowed five runs, eight and seven walks in seven innings pitched. His ERA hovered to 6.43 during Spring Training, his WHIP was a bloated 2.14, and the worst stat of all? He had zero strikeouts the entire Spring. (That's right...ZERO!)

The lackluster performance made the Giants go with Todd Wellemeyer in the fifth spot over Bumgarner, and instead, Bumgarner started the year in 2010 with the Fresno Grizzlies. Despite the humbling spring and drop in stock (he fell from No. 9 to No. 14 in BA's prospect rankings), he still managed to pitch well in the Pacific Coast League. He finished the Fresno campaign with a 7-1 record, 3.16 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.33 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 2.68. Furthermore, his velocity came back (he was back in the 90 MPH range by April) and his strikeouts per nine increased to 6.42 with the Grizzlies.

After Wellemeyer (predictably) flopped in the fifth spot in the rotation, Bumgarner got the call up to the Big League roster. Not only did Bumgarner have a great year overall during the regular season (7-6, 3.00 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.31 WHIP and 3.31 K/BB ratio), but he shined the most in the playoffs during the Giants' World Series run. In four playoff appearances, and 3 starts, Bumgarner went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and had 18 strikeouts and only five walks in 20.2 IP during the postseason. Bumgarner's real gem came in the World Series against the Rangers on the road in Game Four, as he pitched 8 shutout innings with six strikeouts and only two walks and three hits allowed in the winning effort that put the Giants up 3-1 in the series.

The following year in 2011, Bumgarner arguably was the best Giants starting pitcher in 2011, which is saying something considering they had a two-time Cy Young Winner (Lincecum) and two other All-Stars in the past few years (Cain and Vogelsong). Bumgarner pitched 204.1 innings, and finished with a 13-13 record, 3.21 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, and a 4.15 K/BB ratio. In comparison, Bumgarner's FIP was the best on the team, as was his tERA (3.12), xFIP (3.10) and SIERA (3.18). Additionally, his K/BB ratio was almost a point and a half better than the second closest Giants starting pitcher (Cain came in at second with a 2.84 K/BB ratio).

It's crazy to think how Bumgarner went from "mixed feelings" pick in 2007 to a pitcher on the rise on arguably one of the best starting staffs in baseball in 2012. Right now, the future is bright for Bumgarner, as he would be a No. 1 pitcher on most teams right now (seriously, Jonathan Sanchez is slotted to be the No. 2 starter in KC and he could be No. 1 with a good Spring). It'll be interesting to see how Bumgarner will do over a second straight full year, and if he can continue to be as dominating as he was last year, especially in the second half (Bumgarner was dominating June on, as he posted FIP numbers of 2.51, 2.74, 3.08, and 2.51 from June-October). My "gut" tells me he will continue the momentum, though I wouldn't be surprised to see a little regression simply because his year was so phenomenal in 2011.

Regression or not, one thing is for clear: the Giants made the right choice in the 10th slot in 2007.



Tim Alderson: "The Player Traded for Freddy Sanchez"

In 2009, when Alderson was traded for Freddy Sanchez in a July Trade Deadline deal, there was a bit of mixed feelings (mostly weighing toward the negative end) amongst Giants fans on the Web. Chris Quick said this of Alderson in a post on Bay City Ball after the trade went down:

"At first glance, I think it’s a steep price to pay for Sanchez. Injury issues aside, he’s a quality player that’s been worth between 3-4 wins these past four years. In the matter of the last few days the Giants have traded away two Top-10 pitching prospects from their system. Outside of Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler (who is still unsigned), the Giants probably don’t have another pitcher in their Top-10.

The difference between Sanchez and Juan Uribe over the remainder of the season probably varies between 0.5 – 1 win(s). The Giants fix a major hole on their team and do improve themselves. But I’m not sure I like the price that they paid.

Tentatively, I’d call this a Pirates win. Welcome to the team, Freddy."

After all, it did seem like a typical "panic" move by Sabes. Alderson was a Top-10 prospect in the Giants system and a first round pick, and many felt that the contribution Sanchez would have with the Giants wouldn't match the upside Alderson would bring to the Giants rotation in the future.

Two years later, it's obvious the Giants wound up on the better end of the deal, as Sanchez played a crucial role in the Giants World Series run, while Alderson has taken a nose dive as a prospect in the Pirates system.

Alderson was drafted in the 22nd slot in the 2007 draft as a young, tall, projectable arm out of Horizon High School in Arizona (he was a teammate of current Giants prospect Tommy Joseph, so he came from a nice high school program). At six-foot, six inches, Alderson had the physical tools of a No. 1 or No. 2 starting pitcher in the making, and scouts were very high about his potential as a professional pitcher. His scouting report on MiLB.com prior to draft day was positive, as scouts remarked that he had "plus, plus command" and that he displayed very good poise on the mound in the game they scouted (he struck out 13 against Bishop Gorman High School, a pretty good baseball program based out of Las Vegas). There were some concerns about his unorthodox delivery, but for the most part, scouts were pretty high on Alderson's upside, as stated in the summary section of his scouting report:

"With a unique delivery, pitching out of the stretch and unorthodox arm action, some teams may be wary. But Alderson has the chance to have three above-average pitches with outstanding command in a big, athletic package."

After signing, Alderson made a short appearance in the Arizona Rookie League in 2007, pitching in 3 games and a limited five inning stint. He made quite the impression, as he struck out 12, allowed four hits and no free passes in the small sample. The sterling scouting reports and impressive Rookie League debut earned Alderson some hype going into the 2008 season, as Baseball America ranked him at No. 84 in their Top-100 list.

While the Giants opted to have Bumgarner start his professional career in the Sally, they fast tracked Alderson to High-A as a 19-year-old, as he pitched 26 games and a 145.1 innings in the Cal League. Alderson put up great numbers for a teenager in a league where the average age of pitcher's at the time was 22.8 years old (so he was almost four years younger than the competition, which is a HUGE age difference). He went 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.64 FIP, and a K/BB ratio of  3.65. He wasn't a strikeout machine like his left-handed counterpart in Augusta (his K/9 was 7.68), but the solid control and command he displayed in his first full year of professional ball had a lot of Giants fans salivating about his potential. In fact, it was commonplace for many Giants fans and baseball analysts to compare Bumgarner and Alderson, and there was a wide contingent of Giants fans that preferred Alderson to Bumgarner at the time.

After the solid campaign in San Jose, Alderson's stock rose dramatically, as Baseball America ranked him the No. 45 prospect in their Top-100. Despite the solid campaign the previous year in San Jose, the Giants opted for him to start the year again in the Cal League, not eager to rush him to the challenges of the Eastern League just yet. Despite a drop in strikeout rate (his K/9 fell to 6.92), Alderson showed even better control in San Jose, as he posted a BB/9 of only 1.04 in a 26 inning sample.

Unfortunately, despite the improved control, Alderson proved to be a less dominant pitcher in his second year in the Cal League. His H/9 rose from 7.7 in 2008 to 10.7, and his ERA and FIP numbers rose to 4.15 and 4.12, respectively. Granted, there wasn't much panic from Giants fans or management because it was only a five start sample, but safe to say, there was some concern that perhaps Alderson didn't have that No. 1 upside as initially thought when drafted, and probably was more of a No. 3 or No. 2 starter at best (Fangraphs/Rotographs' Marc Hulet especially championed this notion).

Still, the Giants eventually promoted Alderson to Double-A Connecticut, and he was able to overcome the lackluster start and post solid numbers in his short campaign with the Defenders before being traded for Sanchez in late July. In 13 starts and 72.2 IP, Alderson posted an ERA of 3.47, a FIP of 3.53, a WHIP of 1.24 and a K/BB ratio of 3.29. But again, while the numbers were solid, Alderson continued to get batted around in the Eastern League, as his H/9 hovered at 9.4. So, while most of the numbers were nice, the fact that hitters were making consistent contact against him continued to worry Giants fans, and made people wonder if Alderson was projecting downward rather than upward as a prospect.

Since being traded to the Pirates, all the concerns and worries about Alderson came into fruition (though it came at the expense of another team, thank God). In 38.2 IP and seven starts in Double-A Altoona, Alderson finished off the 2009 season in mediocre fashion, as he posted an ERA of 4.66, a 4.62 FIP, a 1.34 WHIP, an a K/BB ratio of 1.38 (amplified by a drop in K/9 to 4.19 and rise BB/9 to 3.03). To make matters worse, Alderson was getting a little lucky in Altoona as his BABIP only hovered around .267. If his luck was a little different, it isn't out of the question to think that his 2009 Altoona numbers would have been a lot worse.

The next season for Alderson in Double-A proved to be a challenge and sparked his steep decline as a prospect in the Pirates system. He got batted around hard in 18 starts in Altoona, as his H/9 rose to a career high 11.2 and his ERA inflated to 5.62 in 89.2 IP. The stint in Double-A was so disheartening that the Pirates demoted Alderson to High-A to work on some things, but it didn't seem to help, as he finished the High-A campaign with a 6.98 ERA and 1.92 K/BB ratio in 38.1 IP. Of course, his FIP numbers suggest he wasn't as bad his ERA numbers said in High-A and Double-A (they were 4.47 and 4.82, respectively), but considering Alderson was back in High-A after pitching (and dominating) there as a 19 year old displayed how much of a step back Alderson had taken in such a short period of time.

Alderson last year played in Double-A Altoona for a third time and there was some hope that he could rebound from such a disastrous 2010 campaign. Unfortunately, the Pirates organization had soured on him,  moving him out of the rotation and into the bullpen. He only made one start the whole season and only pitched 74.1 innings in 2011. Despite the move to the bullpen, he didn't show much progress, as he finished the year with a 4.12 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.30 WHIP and a 2.11 K/BB ratio. In the span of less than three years, Alderson went from a prospect with a No. 2-3 ceiling to most likely a middle reliever. Hence, it isn't surprising that Alderson dropped from most Pirates prospects lists by 2012.

The story of Alderson's decline is an interesting one. In many ways, it makes Giants fans wonder: was Alderson's decline a product of his declining or overrated skills as a pitcher? Or is his decline more of an example of an organization's poor development of pitching talent? After all, Scott Barnes, another top pitching prospect in the Giants system who was traded near the deadline the same season as Alderson also went through a steep decline after he left the Giants system (though to be fair, he did bounce back a little in 2011).

In all likelihood, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. It was obvious that Alderson was proving to be less and less dominating as he moved up the system, but at the same time, the Giants organization is very efficient when it comes to developing pitching talent. Would Alderson have realized that No. 2 or No. 3 starter potential if he was still in the Giants system? Maybe not, but I don't think he would have gone through such a steep decline either if he was still in the same organization that drafted him.

At the end of the day though, while Bumgarner's story is an example of why organizations need to keep their top farm talent, Alderson is a poster boy for why losing top prospects isn't the end of the world. Remember, the Alderson for Sanchez trade was unpopular at the time amongst baseball circles, as many thought the Giants hadn't learned anything from previous deals like the A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano trade. However, if anything, the Alderson trade probably shows that management does know more about their prospects than we as Giants fans would like to give them credit for. Did Sabes and the Giants management team probably expect Alderson to decline so fast in the Pirates organization? Probably not. But, his skills and stats showed that he was declining and thus, expendable, and they made a deal where they could get a solid piece in return before his value depreciated to the point where he would be untrade-able (as he is now).

As a Giants fan, you can't find much argument with that approach at all.

Mixed Six: A Look at the Giants' 2007 Rule 4 Draft

This upcoming Rule 4 draft will mark the fifth anniversary of the 2007 draft. While everyone will remember that draft for the big names such as David Price, Jason Heyward and Matt Wieters (and most likely Mike Moustakas...I'm that big a fan), this draft was also a pretty significant one for the Giants.

In many ways, the end of the 2006 season signified the beginning of the end of the Barry Bonds era. The Giants canned Felipe Alou at the end of the season (the Giants finished 76-85; the Giants tried to make a playoff push by acquiring Shea Hillenbrand, but the deal ended up doing more harm than good), and hired Bruce Bochy, who was coming off a successful campaign for the rival Padres. Additionally, many of the Giants' mainstay players in 2006 opted for greener pastures in the off-season. Seasoned (and often injured) veterans such as Moises Alou and Steve Finley left San Francisco, and suddenly, the Giants' window of opportunity for competing in the NL West looked closed for at least the next couple of years. Yes, the Giants management did sign Barry Zito to a massive contract (a mistake the Giants are still paying for), but it was obvious by the start of Spring Training that the Giants were in rebuilding mode, even in Bonds' last year of his contract.

With the Post-Bonds era looming, Brian Sabean and his management team's biggest moves in 2007 had nothing to do with the Big League roster (sans the Zito deal of course; also getting rid of Matt Morris and his albatross contract wasn't bad either). Instead, the main goal for Sabean and Co. was to restock a farm system that had been left bare by numerous mid-season and off-season transactions in the recent past, and organizational flame outs in the Majors and Minors. (Does Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Lance Niekro and Eddy Martinez-Esteve ring any bells?) The 2007 was the right kind of draft to start such a rebuilding process, as the Giants had six (that's right SIX) picks in the first 51 slots of the first and supplemental rounds.

Yes, there was some talent in the Giants system going into 2007 (Matt Cain had made his debut already and Tim Lincecum was set to do so in 2007), but no one would question that behind their top two prospects (Lincecum and Cain) that the system was incredibly weak. So, in 2007, the Giants loaded up on talent, knowing that they had to get younger and build depth in their system if they ever wanted to compete when Bonds left town after the 2007 year.

The 2007 draft class, especially the first six picks, basically are a symbol of the start of the current mold of the Giants system Giants fans see today. Remember, this used to be an organization that preferred veterans to talent within the farm system during the early years of Sabean's regime. However, that took a turn in 2007 (though you could argue Cain and Lincecum really planted the seeds; the 2007 draft class burst the new plan through the dirt) as the organization went through a huge overhaul in terms of how they evaluated and signed players. As most Giants fans will tell you, the plan obviously proved to be a success (2010 World Series).

I could do this in one post, but I don't feel like I would be doing the subject much justice. So instead, I will be breaking down the analysis of the 2007 draft class into four posts. Here is how the breakdown will look like:

Part I: The "First Rounders" (Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson).
Part II: The "Future Duo Up the Middle" (Nick Noonan and Charlie Culberson).
Part III: The "Tools" Guy and the "College" Guy (Wendell Fairley and Jackson Williams).
Part IV: The "Outsiders" (Notable guys drafted outside the first and supplemental round).

Each part will be posted within a couple of days within each other. As you can see from the list above, the results from that 2007 draft have been a bit mixed. Nonetheless, despite the results, the draft above started a process within the Giants system that has not only produced better teams at the Big League level (three straight winning seasons for the Giants from 2009-2011), but a better framework for the organization in terms of acquiring talent, be it through the draft, free agency or international signings.

I also find this all interesting because one has to wonder when the Giants will undergo another change in organizational philosophy similar to 2007. The safe bet seems to be going into the 2014 season, when Lincecum will be a free agent. Will the Giants continue the ride the train that they first started churning in 2007? Or are they preparing for Lincecum to chase the dollar and perhaps prepare to change their identity again?

As for the questions above, only time will tell. I'm not a fortune teller, and as stated before on this blog, I focus more on the Giants' Minor League rosters here, not the Big League one (go to Giants Nirvana, Crazy Crabbers, McCovey Chronicles, or Bay City Ball for that). For now, I'm going to be looking at and analyzing that 2007 class that helped start the process that Giants fans currently see now.

I think that's enough on my plate for now.

Giants Select SS Joe Panik at No. 29 and RHP Kyle Crick at No. 49

Sorry this is late, but I had some commitments tonight and I couldn't get to the post until now. Good thing I did though, as it gave me some time to reflect on the picks.


Joe Panik, SS, St. John's University (NY)



For some reasons, St. John has been really active in my life these past five months. A girl I dated had parents who went to St. John's, St. John's quickly became my favorite team in College Basketball because of their hard-nosed play and Steve Lavin, Gonzaga played St. John's in the NCAA Tourney and the Zags played their best basketball game of the year, and now the Giants used their 29th pick on the Red Storm infielder. Wow...if I didn't turn down St. John's out of high school (it was one of four colleges I was considering), I would be really stoked to be a Johnnie alum right now.

Anyways, back on the subject, well...from a statistical standpoint, Panik looks very good. He showed very good strike zone recognition in college, as he posted BB/K ratios of 1.81, 2.24 and 1.83 in his three years with the Johnnies. Furthermore, he put up averages of .332, .374 and .398 in his three collegiate seasons. The most surprising aspect of Panik's game was his pop for a middle infielder, as he posted slugging percentages of .513, .621 and .642 and hit a total of 25 home runs in 640 at-bats.

However, the big question about Panik is how he can do against better competition and how his power and hitting will translate when he starts hitting with wood bats. Panik played a year in the Cape Cod in 2010, and while he did well at the plate (he hit .276 with a .384 OBP in 145 at-bats), his power didn't translate as he posted a slugging percentage of .372 and only had 10 extra bases hits (eight doubles and two home runs).

In terms of his defense, he had garnered good reports from scouts, though he doesn't seem to be rated as highly as Brandon Crawford or Ehire Adrianza when they broke into professional ball. Here's is what Matt Grabusky said about Panik in his scouting report on MLB Draft Guide.com:

"In the field, Panik has good range and soft hands.  His arm is average, which leads some to see his future at second base. Whether he remains at short or slides over to second, Panik has the ability to be a high on base guy and solid fielder at the next level."

A lot of experts still felt though the Giants reached with Panik at 29, and that they could have gotten him at their slot in the supplemental round, or even perhaps as late as the second round. Keith Law on his twitter called Panik a "reach" and that he was a "utility" type. I would wait and see how he does when he makes the transition to the Northwest League this year before I would give him such a "label", but I do feel like the Giants could have gotten a higher ceiling high school arm at No. 29 (Henry Owens for example) and then got Panik at No. 49 in the supplemental round.

Of course, this has been a trend for the Giants recently in drafts (e.g. "reaching for players in the first round"), but it's a strategy that's paid off. Last year, Gary Brown was a projected supplemental/second round pick, and he went in the Giants' first round slot. Safe to say, he's made the pick pay off as evidenced by his performance in San Jose this year. Hopefully the same can be true for Panik.


Kyle Crick, RHP, Sherman HS (TX)



Crick is a projectable power arm that fits the characteristics of former Giants HS draft picks: he's big (225 pounds), he's tall (six-foot, three-inches), and he throws gas, though he has to do some work on his secondary stuff. Thankfully, considering Crick's age, the Giants have the time to be patient with him, and he could be a nice project that could develop well in the Giants system. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler are prime examples of physically gifted HS pitchers that succeeded in the Giants system, and there's no reason to think that Crick can join that club if he stays healthy.

Crick according to John Klima of Baseball Beginnings earned an OFP grade of 54 in his scouting report. The best aspect of Crick's repertoire, according Klima, is his fastball, which was graded a 50 out of 65. His slider was his next best pitch, which was graded a 40 out of 55 and his change and split were graded a decent 30 out of 50. Crick's control still needs some work (Klima graded his control a 30 out of 50), but it's obvious that he has a good tool set and some nice potential as a pitcher.

Furthermore, Klima was encouraged by his mechanics and delivery, noting that his delivery was good and that his "arm smooth through back, body sometimes out in front of arm, arm catches up, gets extension and balanced landings." Here's what Klima said about his strengths as a pitcher:

"FB 89-93, comfortable 90-92, hard downhill with tail, heavy ball. Can reach back for a little more and elevate when needed. SL 81-83 with hard bite, go-to weapon. Hard and late. Split 81 with hard drop. Straight CHG 80-81, assume those weren’t flat sliders, secondary SL 72-73 with drop."

For a supplemental pick, Crick has the tools and frame to be a very good pitcher. Of course, he's young, and he will take some time to develop, since he's a high school kid and not a high profile pitcher like some recent HS pitcher picks like Bumgarner and Wheeler (who were both Top-10 first round picks). That being said, there is a lot to like, and if he can develop his control and secondary stuff in the instructional league and low minors in his first couple of years, then Crick could be a high upside pick that could add to the shallow pitching depth in the Giants system.

OTF MLB Draft "Eve" Preview

Tomorrow is it. The Rule 4 draft. After numerous player profiles on this blog, we'll finally see the draft take place and see who the Giants will take at the No. 29 pick. Here is some brief notes before tomorrow's big day.


High school arms the Giants could take in the first round: Robert Stephenson, RHP; Henry Owens, LHP; Joe Ross, RHP; Jorge Lopez, RHP; Hawtin Buchanan, RHP; Dillon Howard, RHP; Jose Fernandez, RHP.

Stephenson may be the best pitcher of the bunch, but all the consensus with the mock drafts seem to have him going in the 15-20 range. He would be a steal at No. 29. Owens is a bit of a reach as well, but it seems more plausible for the Giants to land him, as he seems to be going more in the 24-30 range in a lot of mock drafts. The same seems to be true with Howard and Fernandez, who are going in the 25-33 range. Ross is probably the most likely high school pitcher to be selected by the Giants simply because his talent fits well at the slot, and his Bay Area ties make him an enticing option. However, there are some reports circulating that his stock is rising and he could be taken sooner. As for Lopez and Buchanan, they're intriguing pitching talents, but the Giants would probably be overdrafting if they took them in the first round at No. 29. I expect them to be supplemental or second-round material.



College arms the Giants could take in the first round: Tyler Anderson, LHP; Josh Osich, LHP; Alex Meyer, RHP; Matt Purke, LHP; Andrew Chafin, LHP.

I previewed Meyer in my first draft profile, but his stock has boosted considerably since my writeup. He seems to be a borderline Top-10 pick now and most likely could go in the 10-15 range. He underwhelmed in college, but his tools and size are promising. Anderson and Osich are polished pitchers from Oregon and Oregon State, respectively, but they don't have as much ceiling or upside as some of the other arms in this draft, especially the high school ones. Purke is a stay-away who's stock has tumbled because of injuries and egregious signing bonus demands. Chafin is another nice pitcher with good tools and solid stuff, but he has gone through some minor injury issues that has hurt his stock. He's probably not worth it either considering the promising high school arms available in this draft.



Positional talent that the Giants could take in the first round: C.J. Cron, 1B; Brian Goodwin, OF; Jason Esposito, SS/3B; Andrew Susac, C; Kolten Wong, 2B; Brandon Nimmo, OF; Cory Spangenberg 3B.

Cron has as nice power tool set and he was impressive this year at the plate for Utah. However, he is expected to go higher and there is some good depth at the first base position in the Giants system. Goodwin seems to be the most enticing pick out of positional players, simply because he has an impressive tool set with marginal power. However, the Giants took Gary Brown last year, and the minor league outfield depth is loaded as it is. The same could be true for Nimmo, who is younger than Goodwin, but has impressed scouts lately. Esposito looks like a nice player, but he looks to be more supplemental round material. Wouldn't be a bad pickup for the Giants if they could get him in the supplemental or second round. Susac is getting a lot of wind lately with the Buster Posey injury, and he could be a very real possibility should he still be available at No. 29. Wong and Spangenberg are both good talents, though Wong is the more proven commodity. However, they look like they could go earlier, as mock drafts have them in the 20-28 range. Wong would be worth a pick on if available. Spangenberg? I'm not so sure, but he does have an interesting tool set.



What Giants fans should expect this draft

Brian Sabean mentioned this on KNBR, but the pitching depth in this draft is deep, and the Giants do need to stock the system with guys moving up (e.g. Madison Bumgarner), being traded away (e.g. Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes) or fizzling out (e.g. Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin) in the last few seasons. I would say there is a 70 percent chance the Giants take a pitcher in the first round of this draft, simply because the talent is deep and they could get a lot of return or a steal they wouldn't get any other year at the 29th pick. I would say it's 50-50 over the remaining 30 percent, with either Goodwin or Susac going in the 29th slot if the Giants don't take a pitcher. I personally like Susac more, but Goodwin has a bunch of tools and could move up quickly ala Brown-style.

Either way, Sabean has had a tendency to surprise Giants fans in the past when it comes to draft picks. Even Bumgarner and Brown were considered "over-drafted" players at the time, and yet they have seemed to pan out just fine. Hence, I wouldn't be shocked if somebody totally off the radar was picked at No. 29. That being said, Sabean and his team have showed great skill in terms of developing talent out of the draft in the past five years, so I am confident that Sabean can continue this trend in the 2011 draft.

OTF MLB Draft Peek: Tyler Anderson, LHP, and Matt Purke, LHP

I will get back to the prospect list countdown at some point, but all the latest developments with the draft have me hooked. I think this week will definitely be draft-centered, with maybe a farm update here and there.

Anyways, I'm going to take a look at two left-handed college pitchers who are rumored to go in the mid-to-late first round: Tyler Anderson out of Oregon and Matt Purke out of Texas Christian.



Tyler Anderson, LHP, University of Oregon



At six-foot, four-inches and 215 pounds, lefty Tyler Anderson is an interesting prospect who doesn't have intimidating stuff, but may be polished enough for the Giants to take in the 29th slot in the first round. Anderson has a very tall, lanky frame, and he has shown good command and ability to strike batters out in his collegiate career.

Anderson is coming off a very solid sophomore year in 2010 and an even better junior season in 2011. Last season, in addition to being voted team MVP and to the Pac-10 first team, he went 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA, and struck out 105 batters in 102.2 IP while only allowing 33 walks (good for a K/BB ratio of 3.18). This season, his ERA improved to 2.17, his W-L record jumped to 8-3, and he struck out 114 batters in 107.2 IP while only walking 35 (his K/BB raito was 3.26). Anderson isn't just a pitcher with a nice frame and good tools, but he has proven himself at the collegiate level, a nice sign that he is very capable of being a solid starting pitcher at the professional level.

John Klima of Baseball Beginnings was high on Anderson, projecting that he could develop into a No. 1 or No. 2 starter at the Major League level. Here is what he said about Anderson's abilities in his scouting report:

"Complete confidence in plus change-up with sink, deception and feel, 81-83, thrown as straight change and also with sink any time in count. FB 88-92, comfortable 91, downhill life, natural sink, not afraid to challenge RHH, CHG makes FB play up. OK slider for third look, enough tilt, uses to change eye level for FB, 76-77. Aggressive up-tempo strike thrower with a little quirk in the back leading to a smooth, easy arm action across top, throws across the body and creates deception. Above-average FB and CHG control."

Anderson doesn't have a lot more room to grow, which is pretty typical for a pitcher coming out of college. However, the grades on him so far are pretty positive. MLB Draft Insider rated his fastball, slider and command/control a 55 with 55 potential (in the case of his command/control, they graded it a 55-plus). His changeup earned a 45 grade with 50 potential, and his mechanics earned a 55 grade, both currently and in terms of potential. As you can see, Anderson has all the right tools as of now, and thus, has the potential to be moved quickly in the Giants system if drafted in the 29th slot.

The only real question with Anderson may be his mechanics. When you watch him on tape, his mechanics and delivery look funky, as he moves extremely quickly, almost as if he's rushing to pitch. One has to wonder how much he'll be able to keep his uncanny pitching motion when he makes the transition to professional ball. That being said, Tim Lincecum was able to keep his unusual mechanics and motion when he transitioned to the minors, and it was obvious that it didn't hurt his development. So, considering his success with his current mechanics and pitching motion in college, Anderson's mechanics may be overblown, and it is unlikely the Giants will mess with them unless he struggles immensely in the transition to professional ball.

While he is not a finesse guy by any means, Anderson's stuff doesn't pop out at you. In many ways, he is very similar to Eric Surkamp in the sense that his velocity doesn't wow you, but he still manages to strike guys out at a great rate. The one advantage Anderson does have over Surkamp is that Anderson's does have a better fastball, so that is something Anderson has going for him. That being said, his lack of "explosive" stuff, may deter the Giants from taking him, especially considering how deep this draft is in terms of pitching (Dr. B makes a note of this in his latest post which looks at left-handed pitchers in this draft).

There is a lot of pluses to Anderson as a potential draft pick. He's got a great frame, he knows how to pitch, he has displayed solid strikeout ability and he has played for a baseball coach who has a lot of experience in terms of producing good Major League players (George Horton used to coach at Cal State Fullerton). It is possible that Anderson will be off the list earlier, but if he's available, he could be a very enticing pick for the Giants at No. 29.



Matt Purke, LHP, Texas Christian University



Purke is probably the riskiest first round pick in this Rule 4 Draft. Purke was originally a first round pick by the Rangers in 2009, but he decided to go to TCU instead. After two years, his stock has taken a tumble, not because of his performances with the Horned Frogs, but because of health issues and the large signing bonus he is demanding if drafted.

In terms of what Purke has done in college, it's nothing short of amazing. His freshman year, he went 16-0 with a 3.02 ERA and had 142 strikeouts in 116.1 IP while only allowing 34 walks and 91 hits. The 14th overall pick by the Rangers the previous season, Purke lived up to his lofty hype his first season with the Horned Frogs, as he led them to the College World Series and was projected as a Top-10 pick when he was eligible for the 2011 draft.

However, this year proved to be difficult for Purke. He only made 10 starts and pitched 47.2 innings as he was diagnosed with shoulder bursitis in late April. Jonathan Mayo said this about Purke in a scouting update that examined Purke's "issues" in 2011.

"There’s been a lot of speculation about Purke and his prized left arm for much of the 2011 season. Some scouts felt something wasn’t quite right all season, and there were some people who questioned the validity of reports about a blister shutting Purke down in the early part of the season, thinking perhaps that it was a cover for the shoulder. Someone familiar with the situation assured Purke did indeed have a nasty blister and that his shoulder didn’t bother him until after he returned. It’s possible that the 10 days he had to take off from throwing to let the blister heal contributed to the shoulder issue he’s now dealing with."

After being diagnosed with bursitis, Purke was shut down until May 25th, when he made his return in the MWC Tourney against New Mexico. With his pitch counted limited, he threw four innings, and allowed four hits, one run, two walks while striking out four. While it wasn't a bad performance by any means, it definitely displayed that the arm issues still linger, and may hurt how he'll project as a pitcher in the minors. He is a tall, lanky pitcher who could fill out as a professional (he's six-foot, four inches and 180 pounds), he has some interesting tools, and his stuff prior to his injury (especially in high school) was of "Top-10 pick" caliber. That being said, it's obvious that he isn't the same pitcher he once was when he was the 14th overall pick in 2009. Here's what Klima said in his scouting report of Purke this year:

"Former first-rounder no longer overpowering. Violent, max-effort and slingy pusher, mid-to-low ¾, body in front of arm, leading and dropping elbow, front side flying open. Leads with elbow and drags arm to compensate, jeopardizing entire future. Arm does not work. Lacks consistent downhill plane and confident repetition of breaking stuff. Transformation from schoolboy flame thrower to ordinary average well underway. No longer a premium pick."

Another big issue with Purke is his signability. He burned some bridges with the Rangers after he turned down their six million dollar offer in 2009 (he wanted $7.5 million). Now, Purke is apparently asking for a four million dollar bonus if drafted. Of course, that was before his injury issues, but it goes without saying that the price tag for Purke will come high nonetheless. The Giants under Brian Sabean have been a bit stingy when it comes to signing bonuses with their picks. Until Buster Posey, Sabean really didn't sign guys over the slot suggestion, which usually resorted in them drafting guys in the first round who weren't first round talents (e.g. Wendell Fairley). That certainly will be the case with Purke if he falls to No. 29, and one has to wonder if Sabean will cave in to Purke's demands if the Giants draft him (logic says "no").

If Purke could recover from his injury problems, then he could be a very interesting prospect. He had such promise in high school and in his first year at TCU, that if taken slowly, perhaps Purke could regain the form that made him such a premium pick-candidate a year ago. But that's a huge risk, and with so many pitchers in this draft, the Giants can't afford to whiff on a "questionable" pick like Purke when there are much better and cheaper options available.

OTF MLB Draft Peek: Joe Ross, RHP, and Josh Osich, LHP

We're winding down toward the MLB Rule 4 Draft, and as expected, Mock Drafts continue to pop up. Let's take a look at two draft prospects who are being rumored to go to the 29th slot in the 2011 Draft.


Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS



John Sickels in his latest mock draft has Ross going to the Giants slot. Ross is the younger brother of former top A's prospect and pitcher Tyson Ross, and much like his older brother, the younger Ross has an enticing arm and physical build for a pitcher.

At six-foot, two-inches and 190 pounds, Ross isn't as big as his older brother (who's six-foot, five-inches and 215 pounds), but he has a lot more room for growth and is a lot earlier in his development. Tyson didn't get drafted until after his collegiate tenure at Cal-Berkley. As for Joe, he is expected to go anywhere from the late first to supplemental round as a graduating high school senior. So, while Tyson was a little bit more developed as a pitcher when he was drafted in 2008, Joe may have more upside and ceiling than his older brother.

The one thing they do share in common is that they both have live arms and good stuff. Joe, according to MLB Draft Guide, throws his fastball in the 91-94 MPH range, and he has a "slider with plus potential." Ross does have a changeup, but according to reports, it is still a work in progress.

Mechanically, Ross throws from a three-quarter arm slot and his long limbs and athletic build adds to the deception of his delivery. Furthermore, according to MLB Draft Guide, he has showed good control in high school and is consistent with his delivery, a nice sign that he may be able to make the transition to professional quickly if he signs out of high school.

Currently, Ross is committed to go to UCLA, and head coach John Savage raves about Ross' potential. Savage said this about the Bay-Area pitcher:

”Joe is the best right-handed pitching prospect in California. He has a very athletic delivery and a fastball that explodes at the plate. We look forward to watching Joe compete for a weekend job right away at UCLA. His potential as a pitcher is unlimited.”

Of course, you never know about a coach's praise. He is a recruit of Savage, and I'm sure he wants him to sign, so the praise is probably to be expected. Nonetheless, Ross has all the tools to be a good Major League pitcher, and it's obvious that barring injury, he can develop when he breaks into the minor leagues. Of course, considering his age and where he is at in his development, Ross is going to need some time to develop, as is usually the case with pitchers drafted out of high school.

In terms of where he is now, Ross isn't exactly impressive in comparison to other pitching prospects out of high school currently eligible for this year's draft. MLB Draft Insider graded his fastball a 45, his breaking stuff and changeup a 40, and his control and command a 40. However, while it currently isn't impressive, they are positive that he can grow and develop, as his fastball potential is a 55, his breaking stuff a 50 and his control/command a 55. MLB Draft Insider was especially optimistic about his mechanics, as that seems to be the strongest part of his game, as they rated his mechanics currently a 50 with 60 potential.

Ross is a good story because he's a Bay Area kid and a familiar name amongst Bay Area baseball circles. Furthermore, if the Giants draft him, they must really like him, because they don't have to go far to scout him (Bishop O'Dowd is in located in Oakland). With a baseball family pedigree, a live arm, and a need to upgrade the pitching depth in the minors, the Giants would seem to be a prime fit for Ross.


Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State



Baseball America has Osich going to the Giants in their latest mock draft, and he is a live-armed lefty out of Oregon State who comes with some red flags. Last year, he was shut down for the year in 2010 due to Tommy John surgery. However, Osich this year has come back with a fury, with his most notable performance being a no-hitter against UCLA on May 1st.

The big story of his no-hitter was that it came in a duel against UCLA ace Trevor Bauer. For those who don't know, Bauer is one of the top pitchers in the country, and is projected to go in the Top-15 of this year's draft.

Despite the injury concerns, Osich has the size and stuff to become a legitimate Major League pitcher. At six-foot, three-inches and 225 pounds, Osich is a hoss with an intimidating presence on the mound. According to MLB Draft Guide, he throws a mid-90's fastball with an above average changeup. He is also starting to throw his breaking ball again, which he waned off of to protect himself after Tommy John surgery.

John Klima of Baseball Beginnings was very positive about him in his scouting report, and felt that despite his injuries, he was still a player that would fly off the boards, especially after all the buzz generated from his no-hitter against the Bruins, a pretty quality baseball program. Here is what Klima said in his scouting report:

"I first saw him in Palm Springs in 2009 he threw 97. In this look he sat 92-93 with a bump to 94. The velocity isn’t what it used to be, but it will be enough. He’s throwing from a mid 3/4 slot and sometimes drags his arm, which isn’t my favorite for any pitcher, but teams will look past that to get the left-handed power while they can get it. He’s still downhill enough to make it work, especially in this look, where his fastball was getting late cut into right-handed hitters. His second weapon for right-handers is a 80-82 change, both straight and with occasional sink, and he had good feel on this. There’s not a lot left to dream on here with this boy. He’s close to physical maturity and he won’t throw any harder, so you can expect him to be fast tracked."

In comparison to Ross and other high school pitchers in this draft, Osich doesn't have that much of a ceiling. That is clear in his scouting reports according to MLB Draft Insider, as he only has a 50 potential in terms of his changeup and control/command, and a 55 potential in terms of mechanics and delivery and breaking stuff. The highest rated aspect of his game may be his fastball though, as MLB Draft Insider rated his fastball a 65. This is entirely possible, as he is coming off Tommy John, and before, reports had him clocked in the 97 MPH range.

Osich looks to be a polished left-hander with back of the rotation potential, but perhaps could find some solidity in the bullpen down the road. If the Giants want a guy that can advance through the system quickly, Osich may be their guy, as he has a lot less room to develop in comparison to Ross. I'm not thrilled about the injury history or his mechanics, but history has showed that pitchers have rebounded nicely after Tommy John, and the Giants pitching staff in the minors has done well in terms of working with pitchers with mechanics issues (Zack Wheeler being the biggest example).

OTF MLB Draft Peek: Jason Esposito, SS/3B, and Brian Goodwin, OF

In one day, we will officially be a week away from the MLB Draft! Exciting isn't it? While I'm not sure what I'm going to do for Draft Day (on this blog, specifically), I think I may have only one or two more posts left in terms of going over possible prospects that the Giants could be taking in this year's draft.

In this post, I'm going to look at two prospects who have gone in some mock drafts in the Giants slot. They are position players, however, and though this Giants system needs to re-stock their pitching, these are two players whom the Giants may have a tough time passing on if they're available. Let's take a look at infielder Jason Esposito from Vanderbilt and outfielder Brian Goodwin, a JuCo prospect out of Miami-Dade CC.


Jason Esposito, SS/3B, Vanderbilt University



Prospect Junkies in their latest mock draft had Esposito going to the Giants at No. 29. The possibility of the Giants picking Esposito is enticing, as he would bring a lot of offensive and speed upside to the left side of the infield. Granted, the Giants are pretty set at shortstop with Ehire Adrianza and Brandon Crawford, but third base is a little more open for competition, and Esposito has a lot of excellent tools and is coming off a pretty decent year at the plate in his junior season with the Commodores.

Esposito was a 7th round pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2008, and despite Dayton Moore and the Royals offering him a $1.5 million signing bonus, he decided to stick with his commitment to Vanderbilt. So far, it hasn't exactly been a bad decision. In his three years in Nashville, he has a career batting average of .331, an OBP of .407 and he has accumulated 22 home runs and 154 RBI in 713 collegiate at-bats. Additionally, he has shown good speed on the base paths over his career, as he has swiped 63 bases.

Offensively, he has a solid bat with some pop. While he isn't a home run hitter, he does have gap to gap power, as he has hit 58 doubles with the Commodores. MLB Draft Insider graded his current power as a 50, but did give him 55 potential. His contact rates have swooned a little bit, as he posted rates of 79.7, 86.6 and 83.1 percent in his three seasons at Vandy, but the big concern though with Esposito is his inconsistent plate discipline. While he has sported solid OBP numbers, his BB/K ratios have fluctuated over his collegiate career. His three year ratios at Vanderbilt are 0.33, 0.97 and 0.38 (though in 2011, he was hit 13 times, so if you add that into his BB totals, the BB/K ratio goes up to 0.75; however, I attribute that less to plate approach and more to the wildness of the pitchers he has faced). Thus, the huge waves make you wonder how well Esposito understands the strike zone. John Klima said this about Esposito's plate discipline on a video sample he recorded in April:

"The teams that dig Esposito are going to go on more swings like that first one — they’ll like the body, the hands, the compact stroke, the hip speed and the bat speed. He does flash those tools. If you made your final judgment on the rest of his life based on these four swings, you’d say, well, dude better learn some discipline."

It's obvious that Esposito flashes the right tools to succeed as a professional, but his inconsistency does throw some red flags. Furthermore, Klima also feels that Esposito doesn't flash enough power to play the corner position, and contests that a switch to shortstop may raise his stock as a prospect. While I don't necessarily agree totally with the statement (I think there have been examples of third basemen who have succeeded in the Majors without tremendous power), he does have a point. His bat would be good for a third baseman, but great for a shortstop (think Brandon Crawford with a little bit more power). If Esposito could make the transition to shortstop, offensively he'd be a much more enticing prospect to teams in the draft.

Defensively, Esposito's glove grades out pretty well, though it seems to be that he projects more as a third baseman than a shortstop (though as noted by Kilma above, his stock would be better served by a move toward the middle of the infield). MLB Draft Insider graded his glove a 50 with 55 potential and his arm a 50 with 55 potential (this is on the customary 20-80 scale). Zachary Ball of Pro Draft Central had this to say about Esposito in his scouting report:

"Much more athletic and graceful in the field than his predecessor [2008 1st Round Draft pick Pedro Alvarez], Esposito looks like a third baseman. He has a great arm, more than adequate for the position, and on the mound he can crank it up to the low 90s. He has great soft hands, and his footwork has improved to the point where he could be one of the top defensive third basemen in this class."

Another concern about Esposito is whether or not he's just a product of the offense-heavy college environment. (e.g. can his power and hitting translate with wooden bats?) While his collegiate numbers are very good, he has struggled in two years in the Cape Cod League. In 111 at-bats in his first year in the Cape Cod, he hit .198 with a .233 OBP and .449 OPS. He only hit two extra base hits (two doubles) and he fanned 30 times and walked only four times (a 0.13 BB/K ratio). His second season in 2010 wasn't much better, as he hit only .246 with a .592 OPS in 65 at-bats. While he cut down the strikeouts (13), he didn't walk much either, and thus, his BB/K ratio (0.38) wasn't that impressive, though it was certainly an improvement the second-time around.

As a prospect, Esposito is interesting because he flashes good tools defensively and he has some potential with the bat as well. That being said, his stock has fluctuated greatly, as some saw him as more of a second to third round pick going into the 2011 season. If there is one thing going in Esposito's favor though, it is his pedigree, as Vanderbilt has had a history of producing good Major League talent recently, with Alvarez, David Price and current prospect Sonny Gray, who is projected as a Top-5 pick. While the Giants may not have a drastic need to pick up Esposito in the first round (as noted before in previous posts, pitching should be their main focus this draft), he could be a steal in the supplemental round or even second round if he's available.


Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami-Dade CC (Florida)



The Giants really don't have a particular need in the outfield. With Thomas Neal, Francisco Peguero, Gary Brown, Darren Ford, Rafael Rodriguez, Chuckie Jones, and Brandon Belt most likely going to make a transition to left, the Giants have considerable depth in their system in the outfield. Thus, Goodwin would seem to be an odd fit.

However, if he's available, the Giants may be tempted to pick him because he could be the best available player at No. 29 on talent alone.

At six-foot, one-inches and 190 pounds, Goodwin is a physical specimen with loads of athleticism. MLB Draft Insider graded his speed a 60, and his fielding a 50 with 55 potential. Offensively, he has a lot of tools and though he may not hit with much power as a professional, Klima noted that Goodwin's left-handed swing has "speed, strength and lift." Brewerfan.net also had this to say in his scouting report of Goodwin a year ago when he was still in high school:

"He does a lot of little things well, and has four legitimate tools, lacking power as the only tool to make him the always coveted five-tool talent. And despite his lack of power, Goodwin will surprise you with his pop from time to time. Most of his power goes to the gaps, and his 6.5 speed allows him to leg out plenty of extra base hits. His bat is made for contact, as he excels at putting the ball in play and going with pitches to drive the ball up the middle and the other way. He is extremely fast out of the box, and gets down the line to first base as a left-handed hitter as well as anyone, allowing him to be a threat on infield grounders and bunt plays."

Brewerfan.net made Andrew McCutchen comparisons with Goodwin, though I don't know if Goodwin will have the power upside like McCutchen. That being said, defensively and on the basepaths, the comparisons are definitely valid, as his athleticism may be up there with anybody in this current draft. Baseball Factory ranked him as the 21st best prospect out of high school in 2009, and noted that he was "A natural OF prospect with a fluid LH stroke, Goodwin makes everything look very easy on the field. He glides to balls in the outfield and finds the barrel at the plate with a consistent, low-effort swing."

Before transferring to Miami-Dade CC, Goodwin starred at the University of North Carolina, as he hit .291 with 7 home runs and 63 RBI, while posting an OBP of .409 and an OPS of .920 in 227 at-bats. Furthermore, he showed excellent strike zone recognition, as he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.92. He did strike out a lot (49 times, the second highest total on the team), and his contact rate left a little to be desired (78 percent), but it was still solid for a freshman. Additionally, while he wasn't given the green light to go on the basepaths as much as other players, he did steal seven bases on nine attempts, and did leg out a team-high eight triples, so the speed set is obviously there.

However, in November of 2010, Goodwin was ruled ineligible for the 2011 season, for violating university policy. While the specifics of the suspension never went public, it was widely speculated that academic issues were the main reason why he ended up transferring to junior college his sophomore year. While his makeup has gotten good reports (Brewerfan.net had sterling reports about his makeup and attitude in high school), the suspension is a bit of a red flag in some ways, and makes you wonder if he can avoid trouble as a professional. Nonetheless, it probably could have been a case that Goodwin was focused solely on baseball at a good academic university, and that's not uncommon with baseball players (and athletes in general) in college.

Still though, Goodwin has an excellent toolset and a high ceiling for a prospect. He also performed well in the Cape Cod League, as 5 Tool Talk wrote this about his performance in the summer league:

"His early collegiate success continued into last summer, as he finished 11th among those that qualified on the Cape in batting with a .281 average. During his time with Harwich, he also posted a .364 on-base percentage, stole 15 bases (good for eighth in the league) in 19 attempts and six of his 32 hits went for extra bases."

I don't know if Goodwin will be available at the Giants' slot. He could go in the 10-20 range, simply because his potential and tools may be too much to pass up for MLB general managers. That being said, if he's available at No. 29, the Giants should think about swiping him up, even despite the outfield depth, because he has the potential to develop into a very promising and special Major League player.

OTF MLB Draft Peek: Jorge Lopez, RHP, and Hawtin Buchanan, RHP

Today I'm going to take a look at two possible supplemental round picks that could fall in the Giants slot. The Giants got the 49th pick in the Supplemental Round after Juan Uribe signed with the Dodgers this off-season. Again, we have some more pitchers, but as noted before this pitching is especially deep in young, high upside pitching, and the Giants have an obvious need to solidify their pitching depth in the minors (the Minor League Basbeall Analyst graded the Giants minor league pitching as a C- in their 2011 annual).



Jorge Lopez, RHP, Caguas Military Academy, Puerto Rico

John Sickels has Lopez projected to go at the 49th slot in his latest mock supplemental first round draft. Lopez is a high-ceiling arm, with a nice frame and good stuff according to reports. While Puerto Rican prospects usually don't have a history of going high in the draft (Luis Atilano was the highest pick from Puerto Rico in the history of the draft, as he went No. 35 in 2003), Lopez seems to be an exception to the rule.

According to a report by Perfect Game USA, Lopez is getting comparisons to Javier Vazquez. He still has a lot of room to develop as a pitcher (he's six-foot-four inches, and 175 pounds), but already he sports a fastball that goes in the low 90's and a good spinning curve ball that has gotten good reports from scouts. An excellent athlete (Lopez played volleyball, basketball and ran track in addition to baseball), Lopez used to be a shortstop before he converted to the mound full time.

Perfect Game noted on his player profile page these things about Lopez:

"Slender young build, should gain strength but not much weight. Slow paced low effort delivery, high 3/4's release point, pulls off some on release, very long and loose arm, good use of his lower half. Fastball to 91 mph, velo comes easy. Flashes hard curveball spin when on top of the ball, change up shows nice sink and should be thrown more. Very nice young pitching prospect who should keep improving."

Lopez was named a Rawlings 3rd Team All-American in 2011, and Diamondscape Scouting named him to the Second-Team All-Region team for the Southeast in January. Unlike a lot of high school prospects eligibile in this draft, there isn't a ton of video or scouting reports on Lopez, but he does sound like an enticing pitcher who has considerable upside as a prospect. While Lopez comes from an area of Puerto Rico that is known for developing positional talent (Cayey), Lopez is still an enticing prospect who has faced good competition and has been fostered in a solid baseball environment.

I wish there was more information on Lopez, because he has good tools for a pitcher. The Giants had some success with Jonathan Sanchez, another pitching prospect who came out of Puerto Rico, but Lopez is a bit more raw in comparison to Sanchez. Sanchez pitched in college in the United States before he entered the draft (he played at Ohio Dominican University), and even then, he was an under the radar prospect (he went in the 27th round of the 2004 draft).

Nonetheless, if Lopez can develop as a pitcher in the minors like Sanchez (or perhaps even better), then the Giants could get a steal in the supplemental round with the Puerto Rican right hander. He may take a little more time than Sanchez to break into the majors simply because of his age and where he is in the development stage, but Lopez seems to have the tools and stuff to succeed as a professional pitcher.


Hawtin Buchanan, RHP, Biloxi HS (Mississippi)



Buchanan is another young, raw, but projectable pitcher who could go in the supplemental round in the Giants slot. Buchanan has intriguing size (six-foot, eight inches, 240 pounds), but he is a very good athlete despite his big frame. He already is committed to Ole Miss, not just to play baseball, but to play quarterback for their football team as well.

His stuff is pretty electric as he sports a fastball that goes in the mid-low 90's and touches 95 MPH. However, according to Perfect Game, there are some issues with his mechanics, as he tends to drop his elbow on his curve ball and is slow on his chanegup. Nonetheless, PG was very optimistic about his improvement from 2010 to 2011

"When I saw Buchanan last year at the East Cobb Invitational tournament I was very impressed with his arm and overall strength and athleticism. But, his mechanics needed a lot of work. Over the offseason he put in that work and it has paid off. He’s increased his velocity by 5-7 MPH and has been up to 95. The 6’ 8” righty who is committed to Ole Miss has really been boosting his draft stock with big performances this season. In a big game against George County on March 10th, a game that drew a lot of interest from MLB scouts (as Buchanan opposed LHP Mason Robbins) Hawtin threw a complete game 3-hitter in Biloxi’s district opener and showed improved command of his secondary stuff."

There are a lot of positives when you watch Buchanan on tape. He has a straight, high leg kick that is very similar to Bronson Arroyo and Roy Oswalt. While I'm not sure he will develop into pitchers of that caliber, he still has tremendous uspide and stuff for a kid his age. The main concern with Buchanan might not be his tools as a pitcher, but whether or not he will sign if drafted. After all, he is committed to play football at Ole Miss, and if he is serious about playing football, he may not sign out of high school if drafted. This probably has lowered his draft stock, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Buchanan go lower in the draft because of this issue.

On talent alone though, there is no question that Buchanan is a supplemental round/second round pick. He was a second team All-Rawlings All-American in 2011, and he was also named to the All-Region first team for the Southeast. If the Giants can select him and get him to sign, then they'll have a nice prospect on their hands because his size and stuff are both a plus for his age. He will need some time to develop as a pitcher of course, since professional hitting will be a major step up over the competition he has currently faced (If you watch the tape, it's obvious he's head and shoulders above the hitters). Nonetheless, the Giants will have the patience to allow him to develop in the minors, simply because there isn't a need to rush him with the Major League rotation and bullpen set strongly at this point.

OTF MLB Draft Peek: Robert Stephenson, RHP, and Kolten Wong, 2B

Here a couple of more looks at some prospects that look to go around the 29th slot in the draft (the Giants' pick). As I mentioned before, this is a very deep draft, and I don't think the Giants could go wrong with any pick they make in the first round. Nonetheless, it's always good to look at the possibilities.



Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (CA) HS



Baseball America in their latest mock draft has the lanky right hander going to the Giants at No. 29. Safe to say, the high school pitcher has a lot of interesting upside.

At 6-foot, 3-inches and 180 pounds, Stephenson is considered one of the top prep pitchers in the country, as he was named to the 2011 All-Rawlings First team and All-Region Team for California. Stephenson made a big splash last summer in the AFLAC All-American games, as he started for the West Team and pitched two shutout innings. He also played in the 2010 Area Codes game and also showcased a solid performance in the contest.

Stephenson has a live arm and some good tools for a pitcher. His stuff has gained raves from scouts, and his body has room to mature, which means good things in terms of his stuff developing at the professional level. His fastball is his plus pitch, but he does have some good secondary pitches, though they obviously could use some work. Matt Grabusky of MLB Draft Guide.com had this to say about Stephenson's pitches:

"Stephenson has good control of his fastball that is regularly 92-94 and has been clocked as high as 97 this spring.  Both his curve and change have plus potential, but are somewhat inconsistent at this point."

John Klima of Baseball Beginnings also had good things to say about Stephenson's Major League potential in his scouting report. He has graded his fastball and curve ball a four (out of six) and his changeup and control a three (out of five). Klima gave him an OFP rating of 55, which is pretty promising for a prep pitcher who is still early and raw in his development. Much like Grabusky, Klima points out that he's "far from a finished product, both in terms of physical maturity and stuff," but he still projects the live-armed right hander as a potential No. 1-No. 3 starter at the Major League level.

Much like Owens, Stephenson presents a lot of upside and would look to be a good pickup at No. 29. He is currently committed to go to the University of Washington, but it is widely expected that Stephenson would sign if he is drafted in the first round. Personally, I like Henry Owens a bit more from the video I have seen of both pitchers, but if Owens goes earlier (which is possible, as Baseball America has him going to the Braves at No. 28), then Stephenson would be a nice prize nonetheless. He still has the kind of upside that Owens has, though I like Owens more because of his frame (Owens is six-foot, seven-inches tall) and the fact that he is a lefty (Left-handed starters tend to have more value).

With the history of the Giants organization developing pitchers, Stephenson would look to have a bright future with the Giants, albeit one that would take a few years of development in the minors. That being said, there really is no rush to get Stephenson to the Majors, as the rotation is more than set with Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain manning the rotation for at least a couple of more years (at the very least, Lincecum, Bumgarner and Cain, since Sanchez is always in the mix in trade rumors). The Giants organization has the time and resources to invest in a pitcher with as much uspide and potential as Stephenson.



Kolten Wong, 2B, University of Hawaii



Wong is a prospect that is projected to go in the late first round to early supplemental round slot (I have seen him go from the 20-35 range in most mock drafts). He is getting a lot of Christian Colon comparisons in the sense that he is a pretty polished player at the collegiate level and has a chance to be promoted quickly through the minor league system. However, much like Colon, he doesn't have the upside in comparison to other prospects, as he may not be much better than what he currently is.

That shouldn't be a knock on Wong though, as what he currently is as a prospect is very, very good. He is currently batting .365 at Hawaii this year with 6 home runs, 41 RBI and has an OBP of .480, an OPS of 1.019 and an ISO of .174, all impressive numbers for a middle infielder. Furthermore, he has stolen 22 bases on 26 attempts, not necessarily speed demon numbers, but evidence that he can be fast, efficient base stealer at the next level.

Defensively, he is solid overall with good hands, but as Nick J. Faleris of Diamondscape Scouting notes in his scouting report of Wong, his range tops out as "unspectacular, but more than adequate." Wong also has the potential to go behind the plate, which ups his value a little bit as a prospect. Of course, with Buster Posey at the Major League level, and prospects like Hector Sanchez and Tommy Joseph in the minors, there probably isn't much a need for Wong to play behind the backstop.

While Wong has excelled at the collegiate level with a non-traditional college power, his summer league performances have also gained raves. He was the Cap Cod League MVP in 2010, as he hit .341 with 3 home runs, 18 RBI and stole 22 bases and drew 18 walks in 155 plate appearances for the Orleans Firebirds.

Wong's biggest positive seems to be his bat, as scouts really like what they see from him at the plate. He swings a bit hard (which is to be expected since he is a smaller guy at five-foot, nine-inches and a 188 pounds), but he doesn't overcompensate by any means. Furthermore, his approach and tools have earned plenty of positive remarks. Klima had this to say about Wong's hitting in his latest scouting update:

"His hands are his greatest gift and he almost always trusts them. The gunshot sound at contact comes from exceptional fast-twitch muscles through his fingers, hands, wrists and forearms. Wong’s bat stays in the hitting zone for a long time – it gets there early, takes its shoes off and has a drink – and then finishes with an aggressive uppercut. His power is geared to pull and he’s a straight-away hitter. He’ll have gap power, but if you go middle-in, he can take you out of the park. His swing is easy, effortless, powerful and natural."

The middle infield in the Giants system is a bit of a concern. While I still like Nick Noonan as a prospect, there are questions about his ability and upside as a prospect after a down year in Richmond in 2010 (though he certainly has picked it up this year). Charlie Culberson tore it up last year and is the Flying Squirrels' best hitter this year, but he still has to prove that he's more than a "Cal League Wonder" in the Eastern League (his Sally stats weren't all that impressive). And Ehire Adrianza and Brandon Crawford obviously have the gloves to play at the Major League level, but their bats and health are question marks and have kind of stunted their development.

Thus, Wong is a solid prospect that could fill an obvious need in the Giants system. With the amount of high ceiling pitching in this draft, the Giants certainly wouldn't hurt themselves by taking a hurler in the first round. However, Wong seems to have the qualities of a special prospect who could move fast in the Giants system based on his offensive tools and performance in the Cape Cod League and in college. Wong is my favorite when it comes to whom the Giants should pick, but at the same time, I think the Giants are more likely to pass on him if he's available just because the pitching is too enticing to pass up on.

If the Giants pick him though, Giants fans need to keep an eye out on this kid. He could have instant impact the second he breaks into the minors. That's how polished Wong is from what I've seen on video and from what I've read in his scouting reports.