Rohlinger, Matos, Frandsen, Hinshaw: 'Four-A Players' or Late Bloomers?

Four-A Player
-Noun

1. Professional baseball player who is too good to play in Triple-A, but is unable to find success at the Major League level: Todd Linden was a Four-A Player for the San Francisco Giants.


There you go. We've heard it a lot in baseball circles, and thus, that was the best Dictionary.com-esque definition I could come up with for "Four-A Player." A lot of baseball fans of course are on the fence with this term.

Many fans don't think the term exists. They either believe that a.) they aren't Major League players to begin with or b.) they haven't gotten the necessary chances to prove that they are Major League baseball players. They aren't too good for Triple-A or not good enough for the Big Leagues. It's just a matter of the situation a player is in.

Do I believe that? Yes and no. I believe that there are "Four-A Players" out there in the baseball world, and the Giants organization is chock full of them. Todd Linden was one. Jason Ellison was one. For whatever reason, they succeeded in Fresno, but couldn't translate that success at the Big League level. Was the competition just meager in Triple-A? Were their skills susceptible to Major League pitching (or hitting in the case of pitchers)? Did they just not have the mental approaches to succeed at the Major League level?

Before I start breaking each player down, I wanted to list some nominees that I thought about writing about, but eliminated.

• Matt Downs and Jesus Guzman. (Still relatively young, as they'll be 26 during the season.)
• John Bowker and Nate Schierholtz. (I think Bowker and Schierholtz are solid, average at the worst Major League players at this moment; their stats from Triple-A haven't transitioned yet, but they aren't busts like Linden.)
• Joe Martinez (His Minor League stats are questionable; so you can make the argument that he may be a borderline Triple-A player, let alone a borderline Major League player.)

Here are the "Four-A Player" candidates: Ryan Rohlinger, Osiris Matos, Kevin Frandsen, and Alex Hinshaw.

Are these guys in the category where they are too good for Triple-A, but not good enough for the Majors? Or are these four players just late bloomers who are capable of achieving success with the Giants as soon as 2010?



Candidate No. 1: Ryan Rohlinger, 3B/2B/SS (27-years-old)

Why Rohlinger May Be Too Good for the Minors.

While everyone and their mother talked about Bowker's breakout in Fresno last season, Rohlinger went largely unnoticed by Giants fans. However, Rohlinger absolutely tore it up in Fresno in 2009. In 126 games, he hit 16 home runs, 37 doubles, scored 74 runs and drove in 78 RBI. Furthermore, he also posted an OBP of .351, an OPS of .813 and had a wOBA (weighted On-Base Average according to Linear Weights) of .360.

In many ways, Rohlinger was an absolute machine at the plate in 2009. Granted, he did manage to strikeout more in Fresno (19 percent) than at any other level in the Minors (his previous high was 18.1 percent in Advanced Single-A San Jose), and his walk rate wasn't very impressive either (7.9 percent) but he still managed to balance it out. His BB/K ratio happened to be 0.47, not incredibly poor considering his relatively high strikeout rates with the Grizzlies.

In terms of his other Minor League numbers, he got off to a slow start, but has showed a lot of success since 2008. After posting batting averages of .252 and .235 in Salem Keizer and Augusta, respectively (in addition to wOBA numbers of .320 and .336), Rohlinger broke out in 2008 in San Jose and Double-A Connecticut. While his power decreased from Augusta (he went from 18 home runs in 2007 to 13 home runs combined in a split season between San Jose and Connecticut), he became a more well-rounded hitter, as evidenced by his increase in batting average (from .235 in 2007 to .289 in combined Advanced Single-A and Double-A numbers), OPS (.747 in 2007 to .811 in 2008) and OBP (.332 in 2007 to .364 in 2008). Also his BB/K ratio numbers remained strong (0.68 and 0.65 in San Jose and Connecticut, respectively) and he actually lowered his strikeout rate to 12.7 percent with the Defenders.

Why Rohlinger Might Not Be Good Enough for the Majors.

While his Minor League numbers are good, his numbers with the Giants aren't. In 33 games total with the Giants, Rohlinger has a posted a .118 average, an OPS of .347, and a BB/K ratio of 0.14 (compounded by a 3.8 walk rate and 27.5 strikeout rate). In addition, he has only six hits in 53 plate appearances (two doubles and one triple), has scored only two runs and drove in six RBI.

As you can see, Rohlinger just hasn't showed much in limited action at the Major League level. To make matters worse, his projections aren't exactly comforting either. While CHONE projects him to hit 10 home runs and score 50 runs, they also project him to hit low for average (.241) and post low OPS (.685), wOBA (.303) and runs above average based on wOBA (wRAA) numbers (-9.9).

ZiPS seem to feel similar about those projections. They also project Rohlinger to hit 10 home runs, and they actually are more optimistic about Rohlinger in the runs scored and RBI categories (they project him to score 60 runs and drive in 70 RBI). That being said, they also predict paltry averages (.254 batting average, .318 OBP) and they project his OPS+ (adjusted OPS) numbers to be behind Downs, Guzman, Frandsen and even Steve Holm (a real slap in the face).

Four-A Player or Late Bloomer?

There is a lot to like about Rohlinger. He has good pop on his bat and his defensive numbers weren't terrible in limited action last season (he posted a 12.9 UZR/150 at third base last year, but that was only eight games). However, his BB/K ratios, and low walk rates the past few years have been alarming, especially considering he was very good at drawing walks early in his career (he didn't have a walk rate under 9.9 until his Double-A stint in 2008; it hasn't been over 7.9 at any level since).

Do I think Rohlinger could be a late bloomer? Certainly, but it's not going to be easy. He's got a lot of competition ahead of him, wherever he should play in the infield. He has Pablo Sandoval and Conor Gillaspie (at least in theory) ahead of him at third, Freddy Sanchez, Frandsen, Downs, and Burriss ahead of him at second, and he also has to deal with guys like Juan Uribe and Eugenio Velez who can play multiple positions.

I like his power, and I think he could provide some pop and solid play if given extended time at the Major League level. However, I just can't see that happening with the Giants.


Verdict: Most likely a "Four-A Player". He could be a late bloomer if he goes to a Major League team that will give him opportunity, but who knows if that will happen.


Candidate No. 2: Osiris Matos, RHP (25-years-old)


Why Matos May Be Too Good for the Minors.

Matos has been a solid pitcher in the Minors, especially in Triple-A Fresno. In a five-game stint with the Grizzlies in 2008, Matos struck out 13 batters in 9.2 innings pitched (resulting in a 12.10 strikeout rate) and only walked two hitters (resulting in a 1.86 walk rate and 6.50 K/BB ratio). Additionally, he posted a WHIP of 0.72 and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching based on ERA) of 1.14.

In 45 games and 54 innings with the Grizzlies in 2009, Matos continued to post strong numbers. While his strikeout rate went down to 7.95, his walk rate and K/BB ratio remained stellar at 2.15 and 3.69, respectively. Furthermore, his WHIP remained decent at 1.27 (though his FIP could have been better at 3.94).

If there is one thing Matos has shown in his career in the Minors is that he has goo control of his pitches. He has never posted a BB/K ratio under two and he has only had a walk rate higher than three on one occasion (in 2007 in Connecticut where he posted a walk rate of 3.38; accordingly, that was also the season where he had a 2.05 BB/K ratio, the lowest BB/K ratio of his Minor League career).

Why Matos May Not Be Good Enough for the Majors.

He has had two stints in San Francisco (in 2008 and 2009) and neither stretch was really good. In 20.2 IP in 2008, Matos posted a 4.79 ERA, a 4.92 FIP, a 1.69 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 1.78. For some reason, control suddenly became an issue, as his walk rate ballooned to 3.92 in 2008, the highest number in that category in his professional career.

In 2009, Matos didn't get much of a shot to show whether or not he improved from his rookie stint in San Francisco in 2008. He only got to pitch six innings before he was sent back down to Fresno, and he once again floundered at the Big League level. Matos posted a 2.00 WHIP and a 6.26 FIP (his 9.00 ERA is not a fair indicator because it's based on such a limited number of innings), and allowed seven runs and two home runs in his five outings. Granted, he did improve his strikeout and walk numbers in 2009 (his strikeout rate improved to 7.50, his walk rate dropped to 1.50 and he posted a 5.00 K/BB ratio), but that wasn't enough to counteract that amount of hits he allowed in his short Major League stint. Hitters hit .394 against him and he had a .394 BABIP (batting average of balls put in play) against him in 2009.

There seems to be two main problems with Matos:

1.) Mediocre velocity and effectiveness on his pitches for a reliever.
2.) His flyball rates.

In terms of the former, check out his Pitch F/X graphs and you can see his fastball velocity in 2009 sorely dipped from 2008. He was close to the 95 MPH range at times in 2008, but he seemed to be regularly around the lower 90's in 2009. His slider also dipped in 2009 by .5 MPH.

When it comes to effectiveness, Matos has struggled to be competent with any of the pitches in his three-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, changeup). In his two seasons as a Giants reliever, none of his pitches ever had positive value in terms of runs above average.

As for the latter point, it's one thing to be a flyball pitcher (and it's not necessarily a bad thing in AT&T Park). However, Matos' flyball rates are almost too alarming for any baseball fan to be comfortable. He posted a 51.4 percent flyball rate in 2008 and a 56 percent flyball rate in 2009. Furthermore, his groundball rate went down from 24.3 percent in 2008 to 20 percent in 2009, and his GB/FB ratio dipped as well from 0.47 to 0.36.

With those kinds of numbers, Matos is going to be susceptible to giving up a lot of runs, especially home runs, over his career. Last year, his tendency to give up a lot of flyballs bit him in the butt, as he put up a HR/FB rate of 14.3 percent.


Four-A Player or Late Bloomer?

Matos is having a strong Spring Training as he tries to fight for a spot on the 40-Man Roster (he was designated for assignment last season). However, while he is showing that he can be effective in Spring Training, Matos really hasn't shown much at the Major League level in his professional career.

There are some things to like about Matos. He has pretty good control, and...well...I guess that's about it. He throws strikes, but other than that, Matos really doesn't offer the Giants (or any other Major League ballclubs in general) much else. I would never bank on him becoming a decent Big League reliever as a Giants fan (but I wouldn't exactly be surprised if he happened to break out either).

Verdict: Most definitely a "Four-A Player". Unless something dramatic happens this Spring Training, he probably won't be suiting up for the Giants in 2010.


Candidate No. 3: Kevin Frandsen, 2B/SS (27-years-old)

Why Frandsen May Be Too Good for the Minors.

Frandsen has played at three stints in Fresno. You know how's he done? Pretty well. No, pretty well is underscoring it. (That's like saying Aishwarya Rai is only "pretty hot.") He's done really well at the Triple-A level, and he definitely deserves more credit for his performance in Fresno, especially at the plate.

In 2006, in 71 games and 328 plate appearances with the Grizzlies (his first stint in Triple-A), Frandsen scored 46 runs and hit .304 with a .358 OBP, a .799 OPS and a .357 wOBA. In 2007, in a short 19-game stint before being called up to the Giants, he hit .403, scored 13 runs and posted an OBP of .506, an OPS of 1.029, a wOBA of .462 and a BB/K ratio of 1.50 (he had an 11 percent walk rate and a nine percent strikeout rate in 19 games). And, in 110 games and 474 plate appearances in 2009, (he suffered an Achillies injury in 2008 which way layed him for the entire season), Frandsen hit .295, 13 home runs, scored 67 runs, posted a .352 OBP, a .790 OPS, a .348 wOBA and a 0.68 BB/K ratio.

As you can see, the stats say it all. Frandsen has nothing to prove at the minor league level. In Triple-A, he is not only an excellent player, but he's a bonafide star in the Pacific Coast League if his stats in 2006, 2007 and 2009 say anything.

Why Frandsen May Not Be Good Enough for the Majors.

It's a frustrating fact for Giants fans: as good as Frandsen has been in Triple-A, his stats haven't totally transitioned to the Major League level as many Giants fans would have hoped. He has certainly been on the cusp, and if not for injury and questionable transactions (e.g. the Freddy Sanchez trade), Frandsen's numbers could look a lot different. But the fact of the matter is, Frandsen's numbers are what they are, and unfortunately, they are disappointing, overall.

In 2006, his first stint with the Giants, Frandsen hit .215 in 41 games with a .284 OBP, a .607 OPS and a .268 wOBA. Furthermore, he didn't show much power (only six of his 20 hits were extra base hits) and he didn't show a great approach at the plate either (he had a 0.21 BB/K ratio in 2006).

However, by 2007, Frandsen started to show some signs of life (though nothing totally breakthrough). In 296 plate appearances, he hit .269 and posted a .331 OBP, .710 OPS and a .310 wOBA. While those numbers weren't great by any measure, they certainly were a massive improvement from the previous year. Additionally, Frandsen improved in one category that certainly boded well for future success: BB/K ratio.

Frandsen's BB/K ratio improved from 0.21 in 2006 to 0.88 in 2007. His strikeout rate was under 10 (9.1 percent to be exact), and though his walk rate wasn't incredible (7.1 percent), it certainly was strong enough to complement his low strikeout rate very well. Thus, as evidenced by his strong BB/K ratio numbers, Frandsen showed that he not only had an idea at the plate, but he was very disciplined to boot.

Unfortunately, you don't see BB/K ratio in the box score everyday. You only see batting average, home runs, RBI, etc. So, because Frandsen's numbers in those categories weren't impressive, he was automatically dismissed. He didn't have power, he didn't have speed (unlike Velez or Emmanuel Burriss), so Frandsen didn't stick out to Giants fans. To make matters worse, Frandsen got hurt in 2008 and missed the entire 2008 season, which only put his progress and baseball career back.

Once Frandsen returned to baseball in 2009, he struck a bad string of luck. He couldn't buy a hit in 2009. His batting average was .140, his OBP was .204, his OPS was .384 and his wOBA happened to be .182. All those numbers are atrocious, even if he only played in 20 games and had only 53 plate appearances in 2009. If you want to prove you are a player worthy of starting, you have to put up better numbers than what Frandsen put up in 2009.

Or does he?

Why do I suggest that? Because Frandsen put up two numbers that show that his 2009 season may not have been as bad as everyone may have thought: a .152 BABIP and a 0.75 BB/K ratio.

To put things in perspective, his BABIP was the lowest of any player (pitchers included) with 30 or more plate appearances. Thus, Frandsen was pretty darn unlucky in 2009, and to think he'll be that unlucky again in 2010 would be foolish. In addition, his BB/K ratio almost proves that he won't be that unlucky again either (because it's evidence that his plate discipline is solid, something you can't necessarily say of a lot of Giants hitters). His 0.75 BB/K ratio was second-highest on the team of anyone with 30 or more plate appearances (behind only Ryan Garko, who had a 0.90 BB/K ratio; he's gone by the way).

Four-A Player or Late Bloomer?

Many people are on the fence with this argument. Many believe that he is not that good of a ballplayer, while some believe he is on the cusp of breaking out, but just isn't getting a shot. Where am I? I believe in the latter. Frandsen's Triple-A stats and BB/K ratios convince me, and I'm in the camp that believes he should be starting on Opening Day at second base (or even shortstop) over Juan Uribe (who had an abnormally good offensive year, and is not as good a defensive player at shortstop as Giants would like to think).

No one should ever call Frandsen a "Four-A Player" ever. The guy is under appreciated, and once he gets his shot (either in San Francisco or elsewhere), he'll prove his doubters wrong.

Verdict: Frandsen just needs his chance. Whether he gets that with the Giants is to be determined, but he's definitely capable of being a serviceable, if not good, Major League player.


Candidate No. 4: Alex Hinshaw, LHP (27-years-old).

Why Hinshaw is Too Good for the Minors.

Hinshaw is a strikeout machine. Take a look at his numbers in the minors and you'll see what I'm talking about:

2006 in San Jose: 10.08 strikeout rate, 78 strikeouts in 69.2 innings pitched.
2007 in Connecticut: 10.57 strikeout rate, 45 strikeouts in 38.1 innings pitched.
2008 in Fresno: 12.06 strikeout rate, 21 strikeouts in 15.2 innings pitched.
2008 in San Francisco: 10.66 strikeout rate, 47 strikeouts in 39.2 innings pitched.
2009 in Fresno: 12.38 strikeout rate, 72 strikeouts in 52.1 innings pitched.

Holy schnikies those strikeout numbers are good! Granted, Hinshaw has had problems with control, for he's only had a K/BB ratio over three once, and that was in 2008 in Fresno. Also, his FIP numbers haven't been great either, as evidenced by him having a FIP under three only twice (2.94 in 2007 in Connecticut and 1.29 in 2008 in Fresno), but you can't deny the strikeout numbers. Hinshaw can make batters miss and for a reliever, that's what you want.

Why Hinshaw Might Not Be Good Enough for the Majors.

Like I said, his control is a major issue. Despite his strong strikeout numbers in 2008 with the Giants, his K/BB ratio was only 1.62 and his FIP was only 4.82 (not especially good for a reliever). To make matters worse, he had an absolutely awful showing in 2009 in San Francisco.

In nine appearances and six innings, Hinshaw posted only a strikeout rate of three, a walk rate of 10.50, a K/BB ratio of 0.29, a HR/9 (home runs allowed per nine innings) of three, and a FIP of 10.26. Even for a brief stint those numbers are atrocious.

What could be Hinshaw's problem? Well, other than his inability to be consistent in terms of finding the strike zone, there are serious issues with his velocity, as you can see in his Pitch F/X graphs.

In 2008 with the Giants, his velocity on his fastball ranged from the low to mid-90's and his aveage velocity on his fastball clocked at 92.4 MPH. In 2009 in San Francisco, he was consistenly in the low 90's range and his average fastball velocity dipped to 91.1 MPH. How big a deal is that? It's hard to tell, especially considering his 2009 was such a limited sample. That being said, considering striking guys out is such a key to Hinshaw's game as a pitcher, the drop in velocity on his fastball is concerning, if not discouraging.

Four-A Player or Late Bloomer?

I am one of the few believers in Hinshaw. While his 2008 wasn't great, it was promising. And, while I believe his 2009 in San Francisco was horrendous, his 2009 numbers in Fresno illustrate that he is still able to strike guys out. Will he ever be able to find control at the Major League level? Will he ever be able to recover from his porous 2009? Was his drop in velocity an aberration or a sign of things to come?

There are a lot of questions about Hinshaw as the Giants approach Opening Day. Unfortunately, with Guillermo Mota, Denny Bautista and Santiago Casilla, all proven Major League relievers (or at least in Mota and Casilla's case) vying for roster spots, Hinshaw looks to be the odd-man out. If anything, he probably won't get a chance to prove that his control problems are a thing of the past in a Giants uniform.

Verdict: I like him a lot, but his control, age, and dip in velocity will probably keep him from being a decent Major League reliever. Most likely a "Four-A Player."

Know the Giants' Non-Roster Invitees: The "Veterans"

In lieu of Byun-Hyun Kim and Horacio Ramirez being signed by the Giants to Minor League contracts yesterday, I figured it would be interesting to analyze the Giants' players who are coming to Spring Training, but aren't "currently" on the active 40-man roster. First, I will look at "veterans" (e.g. guys looking for second and third chances) and then "prospects" (e.g. players who will be playing Spring Training games, but may be a year away from playing in a Giants uniform).

In terms of non-roster "veterans", in the past couple of years, Sabean has made a few of these signings pay off. Two years ago, they got surprise contribution from Jose Castillo and Keiichi Yabu, who reported to Arizona as non-roster invitees. Last year, they got GREAT production from Juan Uribe and Justin Miller, who both were signed to Minor League deals before Spring Training after no team deemed them worthy of a Major League contract the whole off-season.

So, who could be this year's Miller Or Uribe? Here are some candidates:

Byung-Hyun Kim:
Kim has been out of Major League Baseball since 2007, and has been in Korea trying to regroup for a comeback. Kim burst onto the scene with Diamondbacks in 2001, where he saved 19 games for the World Series-champion Arizona Diamondbacks. However, during the 2001 World Series, Kim struggled immensely, as he blew two saves to the Yankees and sported a 13.50 ERA and 2.10 WHIP during the Fall Classic.

Kim had a bit of a comeback in 2002, where he saved 36 games. But like Shannen Doherty coming back to an Aaron Spelling show like she did in "Charmed", Kim fell off the wagon again in the playoffs for a second-straight series. Against the Cardinals in Game 3 of the NLDS, Kim allowed two runs on two hits and three walks in his only appearance of the 2002 playoffs.

After that postseason flameout, Kim has bounced around between Boston (no success), Colorado (some success), Arizona again (if you consider a 23.62 ERA and a 4.875 WHIP success) and Florida (not terrible, but not great) trying to be a Major League starting pitcher instead of a reliever. Kim never really found a niche as a starter, and it's assumed that if he makes the Giants roster, it will be as a reliever.

Kim isn't exactly young (he's 31), and his layoff from Major League Baseball for two years makes one wonder if he really has what it takes to make a comeback. While Kim does have a deceptive delivery, his lack of firepower behind his fastball (he averaged 88.3 MPH on his fastball in 2007) and his lackluster K/BB ratios during the last couple of years of his career (he had a 1.57 ratio in 2007) certainly doesn't bode well for Giants fans who think that they will be the Kim who was retiring Giants hitters in 2001 and 2002.

At least though his prospects may be better than Chien Ming Wang's (but he doesn't have as great a commercial though as Wang).

Horacio Ramirez:
Ramirez has never really been a great Major League pitcher. In fact, I wonder if he ever really was a good one to be honest. He had a decent season in 2002, his rookie year, where he won 12 games and sported a 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. His season in 2004 was passable as well, for he won 11 games and had a 1.39 WHIP again.

However, Ramirez just fits the prototype of the pitcher who doesn't have great stuff, but has had a long career in the Major Leagues because he got lucky for a couple of years. In his "career" seasons in 2003 and 2005, Ramirez had K/BB ratios of 1.39 and 1.19 respectively. Furthermore, his FIP numbers were also high at 4.72 and 5.24, in 2003 and 2005, respectively.

The bottom line? Ramirez got awfully lucky a couple of years as a pitcher, and hitters (as well as general managers and managers) have seen through his okay Win-Loss numbers. Ramirez most likely will find a role like Ramon Ortiz had last year: he'll be in Triple-A, and may post good numbers with the Grizzlies, but won't see the MLB level in 2010.

Santiago Casilla:
Casilla in 2007 was a very good relief pitcher for the Oakland A's. He posted good strikeout numbers (9.24 K/9 rate) and a solid WHIP (1.30). Many thought that Casilla was the kind of guy who could have been a major cog in the A's bullpen for years to come.

However, after lackluster 2008 and 2009 season, Casilla finds himself across the Bay in San Francisco, just trying to make a MLB team.

As I mentioned in a Fall/Winter League Winners post, Casilla made some progress by having a solid season in the Domincan Winter League. However, in order to make the Giants roster by Opening Day, Casilla needs to continue to progress and have a strong showing in Spring Training. With a bullpen chock full of arms as it is, he won't be given much slack in Cactus League play.

Tony Pena, Jr.:
Pena is an interesting case mainly because he broke into the league as a shortstop, failed miserably, and now is trying to revive his career as a pitcher. Pena has only pitched in 10 games in his career (only one of them was at the Major League level), so he is indeed a MAJOR work-in-progress. To think that he will be a contributor to the bullpen in 2010 might be a stretch.

However, Pena does offer some upside: he has put up decent strikeout numbers over his 10 games as a pitcher. Last season, in 14.1 IP with the Royals' Single-A organization, Pena had an 8.79 K/9 ratio and a 0.91 WHIP. Granted, he stills struggles with control (he had a 3.14 BB/9 rate last year) and he has benefited from good defense and luck so far in his pitching career (his FIP in Single-A was 3.41 and he had a BABIP of .209). That being said, Pena is a very interesting player to watch for the Giants come Spring Training. If he shows some improvement, and builds on his solid (though not great) Winter League season in the DWL, Pena could be a guy pitching for the Giants in the future.

(Though that future will most likely be 2011 at the earliest.)

Denny Bautista:
Bautista is an interesting case, plain and simple. He has good velocity on his fastball (he averaged 94.1 MPH on his fastball last year with the Pirates), but he doesn't, historically, have good strikeout numbers. He only averaged a K/9 rate over six twice in his six seasons at the Major League level: in 2007 (where he had a 8.31 strikeout rate with the Rockies) and last year with the Pirates (where he had a career-high 9.88 strikeout rate).

That being said, despite his recent strikeout success, Bautista suffers from the same problem almost all hard-throwing relievers suffer from: control. Bautista had a 4.61 BB/9 rate and a 2.14 K/BB ratio in 2009, and those numbers for him were his best outputs in those categories at the Major League level.

There may be a lot to like about Bautista, and he may be on the upswing of his career in terms of finally getting it together as a pitcher. However, Bautista seems to be a Merkin Valdez 2.0, only older and without the funny first name. (Hint: Google Merkin.)

Eric Hacker:
Not much has been expected out of Hacker over his baseball-playing career. He was a 23rd round pick in 2002, and was drafted by the New York Yankees, which is the equivalent of Baseball Purgatory for any prospect because of how active the Yankees are in terms of singing free agents every year.

That being said, despite not having great stuff (his fastball averages 90.1 MPH), Hacker did show some promise after being traded to Pittsburgh last year. Hacker was named the International League Player of the Week (of the week ending August 9) and pitched a few games for the Pirates, (even though his stats during those three games were atrocious; he had a 6.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP).

Is Hacker a longshot to make the Giants active roster? Yeah, (Jennifer Love Hewitt has a better chance of winning an Academy Award in the next two years in my opinion). However, Hacker, who seems to be a career Quad-A player (Triple-A guy who can't make it to the next level, ala Todd Linden), is an interesting player to watch mainly because he has drudged in a lousy farm system (the Yankees) for so long. So, perhaps a change of scenery could turn it around for him in 2010 (though he's going to need a lot of "turning around" to be an MLB pitcher).

Steve Holm/Osiris Matos:
What? Steve Holm's not on the active roster? You're continuing to harp on Matos? What gives? They were on that roster last year! Of course they got a shot! (This is other fans saying this and not me by the way.)

Well, Matos and Holm fell so out of favor with the Giants' organization last year that they were cut loose by the Giants at some point last season. And, to make matters worse, they were so unwanted by other teams around the league that they are back with the Giants, only this time fighting to make a roster spot.

What can I say about the two? Holm's a decent defensive catcher and had an okay year at the plate in 29 games 2008. That being said, with Buster Posey on the way, Bengie Molina keeping the seat warm for Posey (supposedly) and Eli Whiteside providing "intangibles" to the pitching staff (though I don't really know what they are...I guess he has a better "catching no-hitters" ratio than Molina or Posey), Holm just seems like the odd man out and most likely will be in a different organization by the end of Spring Training.

A .242 average, .297 OBP and a .691 OPS 2009 in FRESNO will do that to you I guess.

As for Matos, well, I think he looks good when he warms up. Other than that, I just can't support him. He had decent numbers in 2009 in Fresno (1.27 WHIP, 7.95 K/9 rate) and on paper, his ERA makes him look a lot worse in 2009 than he probably was (he had a decent K/9 rate at 7.50, and he had a K/BB ratio of 5.00). However Matos just seems to give up too many runs (career 5.74 ERA at the MLB level) every game he pitches in.

I think Matos has a better chance than Holm in terms of making the team at this point, but with a lot of strong young arms like Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin and Dan Runzler most likely going to be in the bullpen in 2010, Matos just seems expendable at this point.

Which Giants Players Were Losers from Fall and Winter League?

The "Winners Post" got long, so I decided to split it up.

Like I said before, just because these players are "Losers" of Fall/Winter League doesn't mean that they buried themselves for next season. It was just something I noticed, plain and simple, and I just think numbers, regardless of the level, should be recognized. Do I think guys who were winners can tank in Spring Training? Yes. Do I think guys who were losers are capable of doing much better come March? Of course.

That being said, I also think vice versa as well, for I am an avid believer that some players are capable of transitioning solid Fall/Winter seasons into solid Springs and hopefully, regular seasons. You can't ignore numbers. I learned that in Business school. When you ignore numbers, you get a situation like Enron (the baseball equivalent would be Lance Niekro).

Now, onto the losers. I'll try to be gentle (and you'll want me to especially when you see who I put on the list).


Losers

Buster Posey:
Yikes! I blasphemed, right? No, not really. Posey had a really underwhelming 2009 campaign in Arizona Fall League. In 19 games and 71 AB, Posey posted a .225 batting average, a .683 OPS and hit only two home runs. That is not what Giants fans expected from Posey in Fall League, especially not after his incredible rise through the Giants farm system last season which saw him go from San Jose to San Francisco within the course of a 162 game season. Thus, after posting rather pedestrian numbers for Scottsdale, one can understand why Sabean may have balked at giving Posey the starting job and decided to re-sign Bengie Molina for one more season.

Of course, Posey didn't completely tank. He still posted a .345 OBP (thanks to his 13 walks drawn) and drove in 13 RBI. So, Posey didn't take a complete turn for the worse. That being said, Posey probably needed a strong showing this Fall to prove to Sabean he is ready for the starting catcher's position, and unfortunately, it just didn't happen for him in Scottsdale. Hopefully, he can pick it up in Spring Training and convince Giants brass that he is worth having up at the Major League level as a backup for the time being over Eli Whiteside.

Eugenio Velez:
Velez needs to prove this Spring Training that he is not just a "one month player" and that he can put up solid numbers over the full course of a season. Unfortunately, his performance in DWL play certainly didn't convince anybody that he can play a 162 game season for the Giants.

In 161 AB, Velez posted a .261 batting average, a .313 OBP and a .679 OPS. Furthermore, he only hit two home runs, drew 10 walks and managed to strike out 25 times. Basically, Velez proved to be the same player he has always been, only this is worse because this is Dominican Winter League and not the Major Leagues.

On the bright side, he did show some speed and a better propensity for stealing bases this Winter. He managed to snag 11 bases and was only caught twice. However, in order to be a contributor for the Giants, he needs to improve his abysmal plate patience, and this Winter showed that little progress is being made in the category.

Thankfully, Giants fans can rest nicely knowing that Mark Derosa will be starting in left field on Opening Day (barring injury of course) rather than Velez.

Jesus Guzman:
I know Guzman's gone, but I think his Winter League stats may explain why Sabean was willing to pull the hook on him to clear space for Molina. Sure, Guzman's stats aren't bad: eight home runs, a .290 batting average, a .851 OPS, eight home runs and 37 RBI. Those numbers should be pretty promising, right?

Well, I think you have to only look at two numbers to understand why Guzman was sent packing: 22 BB, 37 SO.

While those numbers aren't atrocious, they aren't comforting for an organization that is looking to upgrade over Travis Ishikawa (though I think Ishikawa can actually be a good option if you look at what he did in the second-half last season). Basically, Guzman's BB/K numbers from Winter League solidify the common-held thought by Giants fans: he's basically a right-handed Ishikawa, but without the glove.

Guzman may find a career with another team. He may find a career as a designated hitter, saving teams of his mediocre defense. However, after looking at his Winter numbers in VWL play, the Giants might have done the right thing by letting him go, especially after Pill's solid season in the VWL.

Osiris Matos:
Matos isn't gone? He's still on the roster? Well...he could make the Giants roster by Opening day, even though it's more likely Shannon Doherty will have a resurgence on television. Why? The guy simply struggles wherever he seems to pitch at.

In DWL play, Matos got shellacked, as evidenced by the 10 hits he allowed in six innings pitched. He also had a god awful WHIP of 2.33 and an ERA of 6.00 in his seven appearances in the Dominican Republic.

Let's face it, in order to make the team, Matos really needs to do something to wow the Giants. After a dismal Winter, I don't think he's capable of doing that.

Denny Bautista:
He's Pedro Martinez's cousin, right? So he must be good, right?

Well, he's going to be 30 in August, and he has bounced around the Majors, unable to live up to the hype that came after the Orioles traded him to Kansas City for Jason Grimsely (the Royals supposedly came up with a steal in that trade when they got Bautista at the time).

In many way, Bautista is just a roll of the dice for the Giants. Is he going to be good? Most likely not. However, the Giants have gotten lucky with these kinds of deals before. Keichii Yabu wasn't terrible, and Justin Miller proved to be decent for half the season in 2009. Could Batista be one of those guys. He could. He has a powerful arm.

That being said, a 1.96 WHIP and nine walks in 7.2 IP isn't going to help put him on that road to "surprise success" anytime soon.

Joe Martinez:
I know this is one more than the "Winners," but I couldn't ignore Martinez. Martinez is a class act, and his recovery from injury really is a great story. Nonetheless, the guy may not have that much of a future with the Giants unless he is really able to turn it around in Spring Training.

This Fall in Scottsdale, Martinez continued to struggle. He finished with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in 23.2 IP. While he put up decent strikeout numbers (26) and low walk totals (8), he simply just gives up too many hits (31 hits) and too many runs (19).

The worst part of this mediocre AFL campaign is that these numbers came in Fall League against Rookies breaking into the league and guys with little big league experience. Martinez actually started a few games for the Giants last season.

Remembering the "Great '08": Dan Ortmeier and Osiris Matos

I know I actually have to stick to something for once, but for one, I get bored easily, and two, I just get too many ideas at times. Brian Sabean Report. Brian Sabean Watch. Around the Candlestick. Now, Remembering the Great '08. (I'll try to keep faithful to at least the latter two).

Anyways, I'm trying to get over this latest Adam LaRoche signing by the Diamondbacks, so I'm trying to think optimistically. What makes me optimistic? The crappiness Giants fans experienced in 2008. While it could have been worse (a lot of experts going into the year thought the Giants in 2008 actually could have challenged the '62 New York Mets; at the time, I thought so as well), it was a laughably bad season, and an indicator that Sabean had a lousy foundation that had solely relied on Barry Bonds post-2002.

So, in the spirit of being optimistic and pessimistic at the same time, I'm going to look at two players (one position player and one pitcher) periodically from the Giants 2008 squad that are no longer with the Giants due to a.) trades, b.) free agency or c.) just being lousy. Some guys might fall in the A and B categories, but for the most part, you should be expecting a lot of C's in the coming posts (I wouldn't call it the "Great '08" for nothing, you know).


Position player: Dan Ortmeier, 1B, OF.

There was some hope for Dan back in the day within the Giants system. Back in 2007, when Giants fans were going through the beginning stages of the "Oh My God, We're Going to be Screwed When Bonds Leaves" phase, Ortmeier came up and had a decent stretch at the Major League level. In 62 games, Ortmeier hit .287 with six home runs, and sported a .497 slugging percentage and .814 OPS. Furthermore, Ortmeier was a switch-hitter (until early in 2008 where he figured out him batting left-handed was futile; it paid off though once), and being a powerful, big guy, many Giants fans legitimately thought that Ortmeier was the solution to the first base problem the Giants were marred in after JT Snow was traded to Boston, and Lance Niekro fell off the face of the earth.

The problem, however, was that Ortmeier was the classic, Sabean-mold player: struck out a lot, and didn't walk very much either. Despite good slugging numbers in 2007, Ortmeier only sported a .317 OBP. Additionally, he had ridiculously low 0.17 BB/K ratio (thanks to a 4.3 percent walk rate and 26.1 percent strikeout rate).

A lot of Giants fans thought Ortemeir could improve upon that the following season. Unfortunately, he didn't. Ortmeier tanked in 2008. In 38 games with the Giants, he showed none of the power he had in 2007, as evidenced by his zero home runs and .628 OPS (ironically, his .313 slugging percentage was lower than his .315 on-base percentage). His BB/K ratio went up to 0.39, but unfortunately that was the only statistical category where Ortmeier showed any improvement from a season ago. Couple that with mediocre defensive skills (he had a career UZR/150 of -9.9 in the outfield, though he made it up at first base with a career UZR/150 of 8.9), and the hot start of John Bowker, and Ortmeier was pretty much done in terms of being a Giant. Any shot he had to gain ground in the Giants system was also killed by an abysmal 28 games in Fresno where he hit .206, one home run and sported a .523 OPS, and a 0.24 BB/K ratio.

Where is Ortmeier now? He is on the Colorado Rockies Triple-A team, the Colorado Springs Sky Sox, and could compete for playing time with the Rockies if he has a solid Spring Training, even if it is probably unlikely. Though his plate patience has improved since coming over from the Bay Area (he sported a .373 OBP and 0.55 BB/K ratio last season in Triple-A), the power Giants fans thought he had in 2007 seems to have disappeared. In a 122 games in Triple-A, Ortmeier hit only seven home runs.


Pitcher: Osiris Matos, RHP

What can I say about Matos? Well...not much. He pretty much was a younger version of Merkin Valdez (who was designated for assignment today...collective gasp from Giants nation? No...okay), only without the injuries and Valdez fastball. He had three pitches, and only one he could throw decently (I'll try to let you guess which one). The problem with Matos was his fastball wasn't incredibly fast (it averaged around 90.5 MPH) and he simply didn't have a lot of command with his other pitches. His BB/K ratio was pretty mediocre at 1.78 in 20 games with the Giants in 2008, mostly because he walked too many guys (he had a 3.92 walk rate in 2008) and he didn't strike out all that many (his strikeout rate in 2008 was 6.97).

Matos did show a little progress in 2009. While he got rocked in five games with the Giants to skyrocket his ERA to 9.00 and WHIP to 2.00, his Fresno numbers in 2009 aren't terrible. With the Grizzlies, he had a 1.27 WHIP and 3.48 ERA in 54.1 innings pitched. His BB/K ratio was also good in Fresno last year at 3.69. Heck, even his 5.00 BB/K ratio was pretty good in his five games with the Giants.

However, what keeps me from jumping on board to support Matos? His strikeout rates still were pretty low in 2009 (7.50 with the Giants, 7.95 with the Grizzlies). Thus, while Matos may have solved some of the control issues he had in 2008 with the Giants, he just doesn't have the stuff to be a contributor to the Giants bullpen.

Matos was designated for assignment last season when they brought up Madison Bumgarner on September eighth. However, it seems nobody has claimed him on waivers just yet, and most likely, he will be trying out with the Giants come Spring Training. That being said, Matos pretty much has no future with the Giants at this point, and unless something dramatic happens, I can see him in another team's uniform in 2010 (though it will probably be a minor league uniform if anything).