Will Gary Brown's Offense Survive the Move to the Eastern League?

No question about it, outfielder Gary Brown is the Giants' top prospect in the system and it isn't really close. Brown, the Giants' first round pick in the 2010 draft, had a killer year in the California League, as he posted a batting average of .336, an on-base percentage of .407 and an OPS of .925 in 131 games and 638 plate appearances in San Jose. While the home runs were nice for a guy with leadoff potential (14), his speed (his calling card when he was drafted), was on full display in the Cal League as he had 13 triples and stole 53 bases on 72 attempts.

Without a doubt, offensively, it was a banner year for Brown, but as most Giants fans know, High-A tends to be a banner year for most position prospects in the Giants system due to the hitter-friendly environments of the California League. The big question now will be how his bat will transition to the Eastern League where he will not only face better pitching, but hitting environments that favor the pitchers considerably so.

If you don't believe me, let's take a look at two formerly touted outfield prospects who mashed in High-A, but took dips the following years in Richmond: Thomas Neal and Roger Kieschnick.

2009 was a coming out party for Neal, as he posted a solid .242 ISO in San Jose, thanks to 22 home runs and a slugging percentage of .579. Neal, not previously a highly touted prospect in the Giants system (he was a 36th round draft pick out of junior college), climbed up the boards after his monster year, as Fangraphs had him listed as the the third best prospect in the Giants system in 2010 after Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (quite good company). In addition to the power numbers, a lot of analysts were high on Neal because of his improved approach at the plate in San Jose, as his BB/K ratio went up from 0.47 in 2008 in Augusta to 0.66 in SJ (he posted a BB percentage of 11.6 percent and a K percentage of 17.5 percent). Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet said this about Neal in his 2010 Giants write-up.

"In fairness, his ’09 numbers may have been helped by a good hitting environment. Even so, the 22-year-old outfielder hit .337/.431/.579 in 475 at-bats. His ISO rate jumped from .168 in low-A in ’08 to .242 in high-A in ’09. Neal has also shown solid patience at the plate over the past three seasons, topping out at 11.6 BB% this past year. He did a nice job of trimming his strikeout rate by 4% over ’08′s 24.1%. It will be hard for Neal to improve upon his .444 wOBA from ’09 but he has the talent to be a star corner outfielder for the Giants."

Neal's impressive 2009 performance merited a Spring Training invite in 2010, but the transition to the Eastern league proved to be a challenge for the 23-year-old from Riverside Junior College. Despite having 26 more plate appearances in 2010, his home run total dipped to 12 and his ISO fell to .149 (and consequently his wOBA tumbled almost a 100 points to .359). Also, he seemed to struggle against the better pitching as well, as his BB/K ratio fell to 0.49, with the walk rate taking the biggest hit, as it dropped to 7.9 percent, the lowest percentage since 2006, his first year in pro ball. While the numbers were not bad by any measure on a hitting standpoint, considering he was the third-best prospect in the Giants system, and his calling card was his bat (especially the power), the regression was a bit of a disappointment for Giants fans who envisioned him a future corner outfielder for the Giants in 2012 or 2013.

Things seemed to only get worse for Neal in 2011 (though it started well with him getting put on the 40-man roster), as his power continued to wilt even in the Pacific Coast League, as his ISO and wOBA fell to .114 and .336, respectively. Even worse, he looked even more lost at the plate with the Grizzlies than with the Flying Squirrels, as he had a 0.26 BB/K rate in 239 plate appearances, amplified by a 20.9 strikeout percentage, the second highest percentage in his career. Neal's decline from top-prospect to most likely a utility outfielder made him expendable to the Giants brass, as he was traded in a mid-season deal for middle infielder Orlando Cabrera (any time you get traded for a player like Cabrera, it means that management doesn't think much of you).

As for Kieschnick, his tumble in the Eastern League is much more evident, though to be honest, injuries have had a part in the hindering of his development. Much like Neal, Kieschnick went bonkers in the Cal League in 2009, as he hit 23 home runs and posted an ISO of .236 and an OPS of .876 in 563 plate appearances. Considering it was his first year of professional ball, there was a lot of hopes that the third round pick out of Texas Tech could be a better-hitting Nate Schierholtz in the future (his calling card was his rocket arm). Hulet of Fangraphs ranked him as the Giants' 5th best prospect in 2010, and remarked this in his report:

"The left-handed hitter did a nice job of handling southpaws by posting a .933 OPS on the heels of a .400 BABIP. His OPS against right-handers was .832. Kieschnick is a hustler on the base paths and in the field despite average speed. He also has the arm strength for right field."

However, Kieschnick's tumble in Double-A was even more dramatic than Neal's. Due to injury, he only had 246 plate appearances and posted a measly .251 average, .298 wOBA and .673 OPS. His home run total fell to four and he had only 15 extra base hits during the injury-shortened campaign. Consequently, he tumbled out of the rankings in 2011 and earned himself a second tour of duty in the Eastern League in 2011. Unfortunately, things did not get better despite a healthier year (he had 501 plate appearances). He hit only .255 and posted a OPS of .737 in his second season with the Flying Squirrles and his ISO remained pedestrian at .174. He did hit 16 home runs and had 22 doubles and five triples, but for the most part, the achillies heel of his game, his plate approach, still did not improve, as he posted a 0.28 BB/K ratio (amplified by a 24.2 percent strikeout rate, a career high) in 2011.

Granted, Kieschnick's flaw as a player has been his inability to make consistent contact (his strikeout percentage in his three pro seasons have been 23.1, 22.4, and 24.2 percent), while not drawing walks to make up for it (his career walk percentage is 6.83). So, in many ways, the Eastern League struggles were probably more predictable than Neal's. That being said, Kieschnick is a prime example of a guy who probably got lifted a little too high in the rankings for a one year sample in a league that obviously hides a lot of hitter's flaws.

As for Brown, is he going to have a similar tumble to Neal and Kieschnick? It's hard to say (because you never know about injuries), but I would say Brown has a lot more going for him than both guys. For starters, Brown is and always was a top prospect, as he was drafted in the first round. He was a top-5 guy in the Giants system last year before his season in San Jose, while Neal and Kieschnick were relatively under-the-radar prospects whose profiles got boosted thanks to impressive (though obviously inflated) Cal League campaigns.

Secondly, Brown's calling card isn't "home-run" power like Neal and Kieschnick. Rather, the strongest part of his game is his speed, and that should be able to transition to the Eastern League, even despite the pitcher friendly confines around the league. Last year, Brown hit 34 doubles and an insane 13 triples in 638 plate appearances. Neal and Kieschnick may have hit more home runs (22 and 23 respectively compared to Brown's 14), but their extra base hits minus home runs don't compare to Brown (Neal had 45 and Kieschnick 27 to Brown's 47; and it must be noted that Neal had 41 doubles, so if you look at it, Brown had more triples than Kieschnick and Neal did combined in 2009). Without question, I would be surprised if Brown launched 14 home runs in Richmond, but while that total will go down, I think he will still manage to post good slugging percentages, because his speed is such a plus-tool.

Of course, the plate approach has people a little worried about Brown and his transition to Double-A. While his BB/K ratio was solid (0.60 in 2011), his walk rates leave a little to be desired. He only posted a 7.2 percent walk rate in San Jose, and in a short stint in the Arizona Fall League before the 2011 campaign, he only drew one (that's right ONE) walk in 55 plate appearances. That being said, he doesn't strikeout a lot either (12.7 percent strikeout rate a year ago), so he's a guy that can make contact consistently, something you couldn't say of Neal and Kieschnick in their tenures in High-A.

Another sneaky factor that could work in Brown's favor is his toughness, as evidenced by his HBP count, which was 23 last year. Add that to his walk total and BB+HBP/K ratio jumps to 0.90. Granted, I don't know if that is a sustainable number, especially as he moves up and faces better and better pitching, but it shows that Brown has an aggressive approach at the plate and that he is willing to get on base any way necessary, which is definitely a plus in his favor.

Overall, I like Brown a lot, and if he can continue to progress in Double-A at the plate like he did in High-A, then it is very likely to think that he could push for a starting job in the Giants outfield in 2013 (he's probably blocked this year due to Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera). In my opinion, the home run power most likely will take a dip, but he's probably an 8-15 home run guy at the majors anyways, so that shouldn't be too much of an alarm. His speed on the basepaths, his ability to stretch hits and make consistent contact should bode him well at the plate in Richmond, and I don't think Giants fans will see the dramatic drop off from Brown in 2012 like former outfield prospects Neal and Kieschnick in 2010.

Scarce Six: A Look at the African-American Players in the Giants Organization

I just realized this fact after I saw Emmanuel Burriss get transferred to the 60-day Disabled List on May 22 to make room for Santiago Casilla: the Giants haven't had one African-American player take the field for them this year. Burriss has been hurt and on the disabled list all season, and Fred Lewis, the only other African-American player on the 25-man active roster this Spring, was traded away to Toronto shortly after the season began.

In my mind, this is incredible, and may be the first year in a long time that the Giants have not had an African-American player take the field in a Giants uniform. I mean, this is a franchise that has housed great African-American players like Willie Mays, Monte Irvin, Hank Thompson, Willie McCovey, Bobby Bonds, Jeffrey Leonard, Kevin Mitchell, Ellis Burks, Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton (for a half-season anyways), Ray Durham, and of course, Barry Bonds.

Now, I don't think you can blame this one on the Giants organization or use the racism card on Bill Neukom or Brian Sabean (though I wish we could because it would get Sabean fired). The lack of African-American ballplayers on the Giants roster is simply a reality of the game nowadays. It's not just the Giants that lack African-American players, a lot of teams are. Last year, in a tweet, Bill Simmons joked that the Red Sox "had more Jewish guys on their team than African-Americans." Hence, anybody claiming the Giants as a "racist" organization  may have a hard argument to make.

That being said, the organization isn't completely bare of talented African American players. Let's take a look at the African-American players in the Giants organization and how soon (or if) they will see playing time in a San Francisco Giants uniform.



Emmanuel Burriss, 2B/SS

Stats this season: None (Has been on Disabled List all year due to a foot injury).

Burriss has plenty of experience on this Giants team and may be the only African-American player in the Giants organization that could play for the Giants this year. Burriss is coming off a foot injury this Spring, which is disheartening mainly because the strongest aspect of his game is his speed (he stole 11 bases last year in 61 games). Burriss doesn't have much power (.046 and .030 ISO the past two seasons), but he had a very strong BB/K ratio in 2008 (0.96) and he has a strong propensity to make contact at the plate (career 87.6 percent contact rate in the Majors). Burriss isn't a bad defender, but his UZR suggests that he may not be as good as advertised (minus-17.7 UZR/150 at shortstop in 2008; minus-3.9 UZR/150 at second base last year).

The biggest roadblock to Burriss' path in the Majors this year (other than his injury) may be the crowded Giants infield. With Juan Uribe, Freddy Sanchez, Edgar Renteria, and Matt Downs all vying for playing position at second base and shortstop, there just may not be any room for Burriss at the Major League level this season. In all likelihood, when he comes back, Burris will be playing most (if not all) of the year in Fresno, which isn't necessarily a bad thing considering he's only played 21 total games above the Advanced Single-A level.


Darren Ford, OF
Stats this season: .247 average, .319 OBP, .673 OPS, 19 R, 14 SB in 38 games in Richmond (Double-A).

Darren Ford turned some heads after a strong year in San Jose in 2009 (.384 wOBA, 81 runs scored, 35 stolen bases) and a surprising Spring Training (11 hits, 11 runs scored in 22 at-bats). While Ford did not make the active, 25-man roster (tough to justify that one when the highest level he played before Spring Training was Advanced Single-A), it was safe to say that Ford earned his spot on the Giants' 40-man roster after Spring Training ended.

So far in 2010, the results have been mixed for Ford. While he has stolen 14 bases, Ford hasn't hit particularly well in the Eastern League for the Flying Squirrels. Granted, this isn't necessarily too big a deal (the Eastern League is known to be a pitcher's league), but the 23.3 percent strikeout percentage and 9.1 walk percentage (he also sports a 0.42 BB/K ratio; almost a ten point dip from 2009) certainly don't make you as a Giants fan feel particularly hopeful that he will get a callup anytime soon.

Ford's speed definitely is attractive, especially considering the Giants' only legitimate stolen base threat is Andres Torres at this point. However, unless he's able to really turn it around, it's safe to say that the soonest Ford will be up with the Giants will be in 2011.


Thomas Neal, OF
Stats this season: .263 average, .332 OBP, .706 OPS, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 15 R, 5 SB in 44 games in Richmond (Double-A).

The hype around Thomas Neal amplified after a breakout year in San Jose last season. In the California League last year, Neal hit 22 HR, scored 102 runs and posted an OPS 1.010 and a wOBA .444 in 129 games. The performance had such an impact on the Giants brass and media that it earned him a non-roster invite to Spring Training, and a spot in the Top-Five of every Giants Prospect Rankings publication, blog or Web site.

However, this year has been anything but kind to Neal. After a disappointing, short Spring Training stint (Neal has only two hits in 11 at-bats), Neal hasn't necessarily been showing the power he displayed in the California League in 2009. This year, he has hit only three home runs and his slugging percentage sits at .374 (his slugging hasn't been under .444 since his first stint in the Northwest League).

The biggest concern with Neal though has to be his plate patience, which has been a bit questionable this season. After posting walk percentages over 9.5 percent the last three years, Neal currently has a walk percentage of 7.1 percent. This has affected his BB/K ratio, which currently sits at 0.37 (last year in San Jose it was 0.66).

Neal eventually is going to see more balls drop for hits. That's just the reality of the game and playing in the Eastern League. However, he has to improve his plate patience if he wants to live up to that billing of being a Top-Five prospect in the Giants organization.


Wendell Fairley, OF
Stats this season: .283 average, .367 OBP, .677 OPS, 15 RBI, 2 SB in 33 games in San Jose (Advanced Single-A).

Fairley was a first-round pick for the Giants in the 2007 first-year player draft. However, despite his draft position, many draft experts felt he was picked in the first round for cost reasons rather than his talent (the Giants had four first round picks in 2007).

Like many experts have predicted, Fairley has disappointed in his tenure in the Giants organization. While he posted a solid wOBA (.363) and BB/K ratio in (0.70) in Arizona Rookie League in 2008, he tumbled greatly in his first season in the South Atlantic League with the Greenjackets in 2009. Fairley went down in wOBA (.307), average (.243), stolen bases (only two stolen bases in six attempts), and BB/K ratio (0.35). And he did this with an improvement in BABIP (it jumped from .308 in 2008 to .338 in 2009).

However, things have turned around a little bit for Fairley in 2010. He started the year off well, holding his own in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee (he had two hits in five at-bats).  He has transitioned that strong impression to a pretty solid year so far in San Jose. While he may not hit for power (his slugging is very underwhelming at .310), his ability to get on-base (.367 OBP) has some Giants fans and management people turning their heads a little bit.

Fairley could use some more refinement at the plate (his BB/K ratio is 0.33). That being said, considering how well he has played lately (he is hitting .324 in his last 10 games), it isn't out of the question to think that Fairley can continue to progress in the California League, and improve in his power and plate patience categories. If he is able to build upon this recent hot streak, it will definitely help him shed that "Tumbler" label he's been tagged with since 2008.


James Simmons, OF
Stats this season: .227 average, .299 OBP, .670 OPS, 7 SB, 9 RBI in 33 games in San Jose (Advanced Single-A).

I really don't know much about Simmons, and I don't think many Giants fans do either. Simmons was a 24th round draft pick in the 2005 MLB amateur draft and came out of Vernon Junior College in Texas. He hasn't been listed in any of the Giants Top Prospects lists, and he has only played in the Arizona Rookie League and the South Atlantic League in addition to the California League (where he currently plays).

What can I tell you about Simmons? He has some athleticism, and has the ability to steal a base. In 2008, he stole 25 bases for Augusta. Last year, he stole 15 bases while doing another tour of duty for the Greenjackets, but he only got caught once. This year, he has been similarly effective, with seven stolen bases on eight tries.

Despite that solid baserunning ability however, Simmons hasn't showed much with the bat. This year he is hitting .227 in San Jose, and the same has been true throughout his four years in the minors. He really jumped onto the scene in 2006, posting a .360 wOBA in Rookie League, but for the next two years he didn't have a wOBA over .292 at any level (he bounced around from Augusta to San Jose). In 2009, he picked it up and posted a wOBA of .343, but considering that it was his third go-around in Augusta, those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

So, what kind of hopes can Giants fans have for a guy like Simmons? Not much, really. But then again, he was a 24th round draft pick, so it makes sense why you can't expect too much from the guy.


Evan Crawford, OF
Stats this season: .273 average, .355 OBP, .718 OPS, 22 R, 9 SB in 42 games in San Jose (Single-A).

Crawford was the Giants' ninth round pick in the 2009 first year player draft. For some reason, I have a lot of hope for this kid (he seems to have a good head on his shoulders). He played three seasons at Indiana University, and had a solid campaign in 2009, posting an .847 OPS and 27 stolen bases. Immediately after he was drafted, Crawford head to Arizona Rookie League, where he hit .273, scored 14 runs and stole nine bases in 16 games. When he was promoted Salem Keizer of the Northwest League, Crawford played even better, posting a .316 average and a wOBA of .381.

Now, it's tough to tell how good Crawford's Volcanoes campaign really was. While his wOBA was high, as was his OBP (.375), there were some concerning numbers. For starters, his BABIP was .412, which is extremely high and probably means he was extremely luck when it came to finding hits (which isn't sustainable, especially as you advance through the minor league system). Second, his BB/K ratio wasn't exactly impressive at 0.30. A high strikeout percentage (26.3 percent) most likely happened to be the culprit of his mediocre BB/K ratio, though he seems to be a player that strikes out a lot in general (he had a 22.7 percent strikeout rate in Arizona Rookie League).

This year, he began the year in Augusta and for the most part, it has been solid.  He hasn't showed much power (.364 slugging), but that's been true since his college days (he hit only four home runs total at Indiana). Additionally, while he still shows a lot of speed (nine stolen bases) and he certainly can get on-base (.355 OBP), the strikeouts (37 in 165 at-bats, which is a 22.7 percent strikeout rate) still are a bit of a concern. To look at it on the bright side, at least Crawford is now getting better at drawing walks. This year, he has drawn 18 walks (9.8 percent walk percentage) and has a BB/K ratio of 0.49 (which is 19 points higher than his BB/K ratio in Salem-Keizer).

Crawford may be a year or two away from even sniffing the Giants roster. However, this kid certainly has under-the-radar talent, and considering his improvement in plate discipline this year with Greenjackets, I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to progress and surprise as a ballplayer as he moves up through the Giants farm system.

The Early Season Struggles of Thomas Neal in Richmond

Richmond is a team loaded with talent. Just look at the roster (especially offensively) from top to bottom, and there will be a lot of names that will jump out at you. Darren Ford, Conor Gillaspie, Nick Noonan, Brandon Crawford, Roger Kieschnick, Thomas Neal, etc. Most of the players on this Flying Squirrles roster tore it up in the California League for the San Jose Giants, arguably the best team in Minor League Baseball in 2009.

Well, how's it going for these former California League studs?

At this point, the results haven't been too hot.

Darren Ford is putting up solid average numbers (.286 average, .723 OPS), but he is tied for the team lead in strikeouts (15) and hasn't been that efficient on the base paths (only four stolen bases on seven tries). Gillaspie is showing some power (three home runs; .738 OPS), but defensively he continues to prove that third base is a bad fit (three errors). Crawford got off to a hot start, but has cooled dramatically (he is hitting .222 with a .661 OPS). Noonan continues to show his age (e.g. that he still is far from ready from the Major League level) and Kieschnick is proving to be a strikeout machine (15) without the homers (zero) or walks (three) to back it up.

The most startling start, however? That honor belongs, unfortunately, to Neal.

Neal on paper looks awful. His batting average is .203 and while his OBP isn't too awful (.311), his slugging numbers have been less than thrilling (.359 slugging, .670 OPS).

To put things into perspective, Neal posted a slugging percentage of .579 and an OPS of 1.010 in 2009 in Advanced Single-A. He hasn't posted an OPS below .800 since his first season in rookie ball, where he posted a .664 OPS in Arizona.

What gives?

In all honesty, it is tough to tell at this point. Despite, the average looking bad, Neal's plate patience has been solid for the most part. If you compare his BB/K ratio (0.57) so far to guys like Ford (0.13), Kieschnick (0.20) and Crawford (0.40), Neal does not look so bad. One of the big compliments about Neal's offensive ability was his improved plate patience in San Jose last year (he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.66). The same seems to be true this year. He still is drawing a good amount of walks despite the lofty strikeout totals, which is something you can't necessarily say of guys like Kieschnick and Ford.

What has really killed Neal so far this season has been the obvious categories. His average looks awful, as does his RBI totals (only six), and considering Gillaspie has hit more home runs in comparison (three to two), which was far from the case last year in San Jose (Neal hit 22 home runs; Gillaspie hit four), it is easy to see why a lot of Giants fans may be starting to panic about Neal's potential (especially with John Bowker continuing to underwhelm at the Major League level).

In my opinion? I think the lack of big-time power numbers early this season shouldn't be too big of a concern. Neal is still accumulating bases (his 23 TB is third-most on the team), and he is still drawing a good amount of walks, so overall, there should be no reason for Giants fans to panic. He just hasn't had a lot of things fall for him so far, which is bound to change as the season progresses. In my mind, high-strikeout, low-walk guys like Ford or Kieschnick are a much bigger worry to me than Neal at this point.

So what should Giants fans think about Neal? He is still a Top-5 prospect in the Giants system, despite this slow start and disappointing Spring Training. I think fans had illusions that he would be a guaranteed call up this season when I think that was unfair. He is still a year away, minimum, from reaching the big-leagues. I have felt that about him since the end of last year, despite the eye-popping numbers he put up in the California League.

There are a lot of things to worry about on this Richmond team (Is Gillaspie and Crawford going to reach their potential? Can Kieschnick's power come back?), but just keep this in mind: Neal is fine and will be fine as the season progresses.

Neal, Kieschnick, Fairley: Which OF Prospects Are Primed for "Giants" Success?

With Spring Training beginning it's third week of play, a lot of interesting questions have sprung up around Giants camp in Scottsdale.

1.) Is Madison Bumgarner going to start the year in San Francisco or Fresno?
2.) Is Fred Lewis going to be traded or released considering he has no minor league options left on his contract?
3.) When will Buster Posey supplant Bengie Molina in the starting lineup next season?

While all those questions are interesting, I will be examining one question that is commonly lost in the shuffle of all the "big-name" Spring Training headlines:

Which prospects are making a name for themselves this Spring Training?

Granted, there are a lot of names: Nick Noonan, Brandon Crawford, Francisco Peguero, Darren Ford, Kevin Pucetas, Steve Edlefsen, etc. The list really could go on and on and on.

That being said, there are three outfield prospects that have gauged my interest since last season: Thomas Neal, Roger Kieschnick and Wendell Fairley.

All three prospects have come with some kind of reputation going into Spring Training (and they are all Non-Roster invitees by the way). Which guys are coming off solid seasons in 2009? Which guys are primed for success in 2010 and beyond? And which guys are making progress this Spring in Cactus League play?

Let's take a look at the outfielders and their profiles.


(Note: Spring Training stats are accumulated before today's game against  Cleveland.)


Thomas Neal (22, 36th round draft pick of the 2005 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: High-A San Jose)


How Did Neal Perform in 2009?

Though a later rounds pick, Neal has burst onto the scene in the San Francisco Giants organization. Last year, in San Jose, Neal put up unbelievable numbers in California League play. In 129 games, he hit .337 with 22 home runs, 90 RBI, scored 102 runs and put up a .431 OBP, a 1.010 OPS, and a wOBA (weighted on base average using linear weights) of .444. Additionally, Neal showed solid patience at the plate, as evidenced by his 11.6 walk rate and 0.66 BB/K ratio.

Neal was such a stud last year in the minors that Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet listed him as the No. 3 prospect in the Giants organization, behind only Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. To put this high ranking into context, Neal ranked ahead of Dan Runzler (no. 4), Waldis Joaquin (no. 10), and Francisco Peguero (no. 9), all players that are currently on the Giants 40-man roster going into the 2010 season.

How Good of a Player is Neal?

Neal has the potential to be a force on the offensive end. Though, his 2009 season was obviously his magnus opus so far of his Minor League career, Neal also showed excellent potential the last couple of seasons.

In 2007, before he got hurt, he hit .318 with an .875 OPS and a .419 wOBA in Arizona Rookie League (he only played 10 games before he was injured and missed the rest of the year). The most promising numbers of his short season were his walk percentages and BB/K ratios, which happened to be 10.9 and 0.71, respectively.

In 2008, Neal showed steady improvement, and proved that his injury was a thing of the past. In Single-A Augusta, he put up a .276 average, a .359 OBP, an .803 OPS and a .359 wOBA. Though his walk percentage fell to 9.6, and his BB/K ratio fell to 0.47 in 2008, his power numbers made up for the drop in his plate patience categories. In Augusta, Neal hit 15 home runs, 25 doubles, drove in 81 RBI and scored 69 runs.

As you can see, there is a lot Neal can offer to this Giants organization on the offensive end. His 37 homers the past couple of years show he has power potential, and his 171 runs scored and RBI the past two years in Augusta and San Jose show that he is capable of generating a lot of runs (something the Giants need after ranking 25th in the Majors in runs scored last season). Furthermore, Neal shows a lot of patience at the plate and is able to generate walks impressively at the Minor League level. In his four minor league stints in Salem-Keizer, Arizona, Augusta, and San Jose, Neal has only had a walk percentage under 9.6 once (3.7 his rookie year of professional ball in Salem-Keizer).

What Could Hold Neal Back?

While Neal has a tendency to draw a good amount of walks, he is also susceptible to striking out quite a bit too boot. In 2009, he struck out 20.6 percent of the time and in 2008, he struck out 24.1 percent of the time as well. In fact, in his four stints at the Minor League level, Neal has only had a strikeout percentage under 20 percent once (2007, where it was 17.9 percent, but that was only in 10 games).

Additionally, there have been a lot of questions about Neal's defensive ability. While he is a solid offensive player, many experts do not think Neal has the defensive ability to be a regular outfielder for the Giants in the future (especially considering AT&T Park's tough dimensions). Many believe that Neal should probably move to first base to hide his average defensive abilities. Do I agree with those critics? It's tough to say, but if you look at his range factor per game numbers (1.64 RF/G in LF in San Jose), perhaps a move to first base wouldn't be such a bad idea for Neal.

How's Neal Doing so Far in Spring Training?

He isn't getting a ton of playing time, so you have to take these numbers with a grain of salt. That being said, he hasn't wowed statistically at the plate so far in Cactus League play. In nine at-bats, Neal has only one hit, and has a .222 OBP, a .125 slugging percentage, and a .125 batting average. To make matters worse, he has also struck out three times, which doesn't bode well for him silencing those critics who say he strikes out too much at the Minor League level.


Prediction on Neal: A solid player, who will be either a star or at the very least, an above-average MLB player. It probably won't happen next year, but definitely expect Neal to be on the 40-man roster and competing for a spot on the 25-man active roster in 2011.


Roger Kieschnick (23, 3rd round draft pick of the 2008 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: High-A San Jose)


How Did Kieschnick Perform in 2009?

Kieschnick, a rookie out of Texas Tech University, came out and performed well in his first season in the minors. In San Jose, he hit 23 home runs, 37 doubles, 8 triples, drove in 110 RBI and scored 86 runs. Also, he posted a .296 average, a .345 OBP, a .876 OPS, and a wOBA of .381. Kieschnick also showed some speed and ability on the basepaths, as evidenced by his 9 stolen bases on 10 attempts.

For a player just one year removed from college, Kieschnick showed that he was well ahead of schedule offensively, which led to him being a Non-Roster invitee this Spring Training.

How Good of a Player is Kieschnick?

Offensively, there is a lot Kieschnick offers. He can hit for power and he can hit for average to boot. Furthermore, he's above average defensively in right field (he posted a 1.75 RF/G last year and had 11 outfield assists) and he has good speed for his size (he's six-foot, three-inches and weights 200 pounds).

If you have to compare Kieschnick to anybody on the Giants current roster, the best example may be Nate Schierholtz. That being said, Kieschnick may have more power potential than Schierholtz (Schierholtz never hit more than 18 home runs at any level in the Minor Leagues).

What Could Hold Kieschnick Back?

Kieschnick has only one Minor League season under his belt, but there were some alarming numbers in his plate patience categories. In San Jose last year, he only had a 6.4 walk percentage and a BB/K ratio of 0.28. Furthermore, his strikeout rate was uncomfortably high at 25.1 percent. Those numbers aren't exactly promising, especially considering they occurred at only High Single-A.

To make matters worse, Kieschnick proved to be extraordinarily lucky in terms of finding hits. His BABIP was .352 last year. While that number isn't incredibly high in general, his lack of ability to draw walks (and strikeout often) could mean that his stats could take a massive hit if his BABIP dips. Considering that the California League is widely known as a "hitter's league," it is unlikely that Kieschnick will be able to sustain a high BABIP again in Double-A or Triple-A in 2010.

How's Kieschnick Doing So Far in Spring Training?

He has two less at-bats than Neal, but Kieschnick has already put up good numbers. He has three hits, has scored one run and drove in one RBI. He also has one stolen base on one attempt.

Yet the best numbers for Kieschnick this Spring Training? He has zero strikeouts and one walk in seven games.

Prediction on Kieschnick: Kieschnick has a potential to be a Schierholtz with more pop on the bat. However, whether or not he lives up to that comparison is very tough, considering he has only one year of professional baseball underneath his belt. That being said, Kieschnick will be a very interesting player to watch as he makes a transition to Double-A this season.


Wendell Fairley (22 on March 17, 1st round pick of the 2007 MLB Draft)
(Highest level reached: Single-A)

How Did Fairley Perform in 2009?

To be honest, not very well. Fairley stats in Augusta were very disappointing across the board. He posted a .243 batting average, a .323 OBP, a .656 OPS, and a .307 wOBA for the Greenjackets last season. His plate patience numbers were atrocious as well, as he had a walk percentage of 9.2, a strikeout percentage of 29.9 and a BB/K ratio of 0.35 (a 35-point drop from his 2008 in Arizona Rookie League, where his BB/K ratio was 0.70).

Also, while Fairley was touted in 2007 for his "Five Tool" ability, Fairley didn't show much on the basepaths or out on the field. He only had two stolen bases on six attempts, he committed seven errors and only posted a RF/G of 1.36 in left field in 2009.

How Good of a Player is Fairley?

Obsessive Giants Compulsive gave a pretty good review of Fairly when he was drafted back in 2007, and after reading it, you feel some hope that the kid can turn it around after a slow start in the Minor Leagues so far.

Despite putting up pedestrian stats in average, stolen bases and slugging his first two years in Rookie and Single-A, Fairley showed some promising plate patience in 2008 in Arizona Rookie League. In 52 games, Fairley posted a a .388 OBP, a .363 wOBA and a 0.70 BB/K ratio (compounded by a 10.9 walk percentage). While he took a step back in Augusta in 2009, it isn't completely out of the question that 2009 was just an off-year for him. After all, while his strikeout rate inflated with the Greenjackets, his walk rate didn't regress all that much.

Another factor in Fairley's favor is the fact that he is still young and he has time to develop. He can afford to spend another year in Augusta to fine tune his game and approach at the plate.

What Could Hold Fairley Back?

Well...to put it kindly...a lot.

Fairley wasn't quite heralded when he was drafted (many felt he was drafted too high), and he was deemed a "tumbler" in the Giants minor league system after his ROOKIE year (that was before his atrocious season in Augusta in 2009).

In many ways, Fairely suffers from the same problems a lot of guys with "multiple tools" suffer from: high strikeout rates, not as much power as advertised, etc. However, the most concerning aspect of Fairley's game has to be his stolen base ability. He just isn't very good at swiping bags, and that may hurt his value and his projection as a player in general. In 2008, he had 7 stolen bases on 10 attempts. Then, he dipped to two the next season. What makes it worse? The fact that he played in 54 more games in 2009 than 2008, and he had five LESS stolen bases.

Darren Ford, another "multiple tools player," also struggled at the plate for a couple of years in Single-A in the Milwaukee Brewers' organization. Yet, Ford always posted solid stolen base numbers to combat his mediocre offensive averages and power numbers. Fairley doesn't even have the luxury of that. So, it makes you wonder: what does Fairley offer this Giants organization?


How's Fairley Doing So Far in Spring Training?

Amazingly, Fairley isn't doing all that bad. He does have two strikeouts in four at-bats, but he does have two hits, including a double, and has accumulated three total bases. Thus, Fairley's averages look great so far (.500 average and OBP, .750 slugging percentage). That being said, considering the sample is so small, his high offensive averages are probably a fluke, and if given more playing time, it is highly likely that his numbers this Spring will fall down to earth.

Prediction on Fairley: There's still some potential, but not a lot left after two sub-par seasons in the Minors. Unfortunately, Fairley doesn't offer the Giants much and doesn't seem to excel in any category, be it at the plate, defensively, or on the basepaths. From what it seems, he was drafted too high in 2007, and he'll never be able to live up to the expectations of being a first round pick.