Is Waldis Joaquin Entering Alex Hinshaw Territory?

So far, this year, it has been an up and down season for the Giants bullpen. Some guys have gotten off to good starts, but have imploded on some big moments (e.g. Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo). Some guys have been a shell of who they were last season (e.g. Brandon Medders and Jeremy Affeldt). And some guys...well...they have been pretty good (e.g. Dan Runzler and Guillermo Mota).

Overall, I deeply believe the Giants have the best bullpen in the National League West...though not statistically at the present moment. They are behind Colorado (second) and San Diego (third) in terms of team bullpen ERA in the Majors (Colorado has a 2.58 ERA; San Diego sports a 2.65 ERA), but the Giants are not that far behind considering how early it is in the season (the Giants are seventh and have a bullpen ERA of 3.20).

Lost in the shuffle though of the Romos, Wilsons and Affeldts in the bullpen however is Waldis Joaquin.

For those who don't know, Joaquin was recently optioned to Triple-A Fresno after Aaron Rowand returned off his stint on the 15-day disabled list.

It makes sense from a Giants management perspective. Wilson, Romo, Mota, Runzler, Affeldt and Medders are way ahead of Joaquin in terms of standing in the bullpen, and Joaquin hasn't really lived up to his potential either this season.

In 4.2 IP, Joaquin sports a 9.64 ERA, a 2.79 WHIP and has allowed six hits and seven walks. To make matters worse, Joaquin, a flamethrower who averaged 96.2 MPH last year and 94.4 MPH on his fastball this year, hasn't struck out many batters. After striking out 12 batters in 10 IP in a short callup in 2009, Joaquin has only managed to punch out two batters.

Those numbers have produced god awful K/9 and BB/K ratios (3.86 and 0.29, respectively) which makes most sabermetrics and baseball fans shudder.

And what makes things worse? His stats eerily look similar to another "hard-throwing pitcher with command-problems reliever" from last year: Alex Hinshaw.

After a solid 2008 season with the Giants where he appeared in 48 games and posted an ERA of 3.40 and a K/9 of 10.66, Hinshaw absolutely struggled in short action with the Giants bullpen in 2009. Hinshaw gave up 10 hits and allowed 8 runs and 7 walks in 6 IP.

With already a solid staff in the Giants' 2009 bullpen, it came as no surprise why Hinshaw spent the majority of the season in Fresno (he pitched 46 games for the Grizzlies).

Could the same happen to Joaquin in 2010?

It is possible. Hitters have found a tremendously easy ability to find a hit against Joaquin, as evidenced by his .350 BABIP this season. Hinshaw suffered through the same problem in his nine appearances in 2009. His BABIP was .349.

However, while they share similar strand rates (Joaquin has a 57.1 percent strand rate so far; Hinshaw had a 63.4 percent strand rate), there is something that Joaquin is better at doing than Hinshaw: inducing groundballs.

Hinshaw is not a groundball pitcher. In his two stints in San Francisco, Hinshaw posted GB/FB rates of 0.48 and 0.58. What makes this ratio even worse is that when hitters hit fly balls against Hinshaw, they have made them count. The past two seasons, Hinshaw's HR/FB rate has been 10 percent (2008) and 16.7 percent (2009).

This doesn't seem to be the problem with Joaquin. Last year, Joaquin posted a GB/FB ratio of 3.60. This year? That ratio had improved to 5.00. Granted, Joaquin has allowed more line drives this season than Hinshaw did in 2009 (25 percent to 17.4 percent), but hitters haven't made Joaquin pay too badly when it comes to fly balls this year (Joaquin hasn't given up a homer this year, and he only allowed one last year).

Thus, that is why I am more optimistic that Joaquin can bounce back after a short tenure with the Grizzlies than Hinshaw (and I don't necessarily hate Hinshaw either). Look at the game logs for 2010 for Joaquin and 2009 for Hinshaw. Joaquin looks much better than Hinshaw, and in the grand scheme of things, Joaquin wasn't all that terrible. What really sealed the deal (e.g. being demoted) for Joaquin was the April 16th opener against the Dodgers.  Check out his pitch F/X for that game:



What did all that wildness produce? Four walks, two hits, two earned runs in two innings pitched. Yikes. That is about as good as Josh Hartnett's performance in the "Black Dahlia."

Granted, his performance against the Braves (1.2 IP, two walks, two hits, three runs allowed) was pretty bad too. But it was only two performances. Is Joaquin capable of having bad performances like the ones against Los Angeles and Atlanta? Sure, but he is also capable of having solid performances, like his debut against the Astros on April 6th (12 strikes thrown, 4 balls thrown, 0.2 IP, 1 strikeout).

Is Joaquin entering that "Promising for a bit, but now falling back to earth" phase that Hinshaw drudged through in 2009? Perhaps, but I don't believe Giants fans should throw in the towel and say "Joaquin is the next Merkin Valdez!" just yet.

I think Joaquin making the Opening Day roster was a premature decision by general manager Brian Sabean (he has only pitched 10 innings at the Triple-A level). With some more experience and tuning of his command in Fresno (he has only thrown 45.3 percent of his pitches for strikes this year) , I don't think it's out of the question to see Joaquin back up my August, ready to contribute to the Giants bullpen once again.

Can Waldis Joaquin Break Out for the Giants in 2010?

We've heard a lot about Dan Runzler this off-season as being a breakout player, and a key component to the Giants' already steady bullpen next season.

Granted, there is good reason for the hype surrounding Runzler. Last year, in his short September callup, he absolutely dominated. In 11 appearances, he posted a 1.04 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 11.42 (highest on the team).

Sure, he wasn't perfect. His FIP was high at 4.14, and his BB/9 rate and K/BB ratio left a little to be desired (5.19 and 2.20, respectively), but for the most part, Runzler has rightly deserved the hype going into spring training.

However, one young pitcher who could be just as interesting to watch next year, perhaps even more so than Runzler, might be Waldis Joaquin.

Now Joaquin isn't exactly an unknown. He was turning heads after his first Major League outing in Houston. That being said, with all the hype concerning Runzler, Joaquin has gone a little underneath the radar this off-season, and that shouldn't be the case for a guy who has the potential to be a solid contributor to the Giants' bullpen in 2010.

Granted, the kid is still a little raw. Joaquin is only 23 and has been playing ball "officially" for the Giants since 2005. Despite his youth and lack of experience though, he does offer a lot of upside for the Giants.

For starters, Joaquin throws some serious gas. Last season, Joaquin averaged the second fastest fastball on the Giants at 96.2 MPH (he followed only Brian Wilson by 0.4 MPH). Furthermore, he had a K/9 rate of 10.13, fifth highest on the team. And those strikeout numbers might not be a fluke either. Joaquin had a 14.40 K/9 rate and a 8.00 K/BB ratio in 10 IP with Fresno last season as well.

Joaquin still has plenty to work on going into spring training. He had a 5.91 BB/9 rate and a 1.71 K/BB ratio last season with the Giants, which are not exactly impressive numbers. And if that isn't enough, Joaquin's WHIP and FIP weren't particularly great either a 1.59 and 4.60.

Thus, Joaquin isn't exactly coming of an impressive cup of coffee stint in San Francisco if you look beyond his fastball velocity and strikeout rate. However, even though his 2009 stats may pale in comparison to a guy like Runzler, Joaquin did benefit (albeit, strangely) from a couple of factors that may work in his favor as he continues to develop in 2010:

1.) Joaquin suffered from an abnormally high BABIP at .332 in 2009.

Though Joaquin may be at risk to high BABIP numbers in the future because he induces a lot of groundballs (he had a 3.60 GB/FB ratio last season), chances are, it won't be that high again next season. In all likelihood, it will hover around the league average of .300.

2.) Joaquin has a solid variety of pitches.

In 2009, Joaquin threw three pitches with consistency: a fastball (which he threw 76.6 percent of the time), a slider (which he threw 13.7 percent of the time) and a changeup (which he threw 9.8 percent of the time). And if that isn't enough, Joaquin also had some value behind those pitches in 2009. Though his fastball wasn't as effective as it could have been (he had a -1.07 fastball runs above average per 100 pitches), his slider and changeup proved to be solid, though not spectacular, pitches (as evidenced by his 1.85 slider runs above average per 100 pitches and 0.59 changeup runs above average per 100 pitches).

Why is pitch variety and runs above average per 100 pitches important to look at in Joaquin's case? Well, Runzler really showed confidence in only TWO pitches last season: a fastball and slider (he threw the fastball 74.7 percent of the time and the slider 20.8 percent of the time). Granted, he does have a curve and change, but last season he only threw the pitches a combined 4.5 percent of the time.

So, Runzler had only two pitches last year. He must have been awesome with them, right? Well, not exactly. Though he had tremendous value behind his slider (he averaged 10.0 slider runs above average per 100 pitches), his fastball actually proved to be less valuable than Joaquin's at -1.39 fastball runs above average per 100 pitches.

(Also, for the record, Runzler put up a -3.51 curve ball runs above average per 100 pitches and -4.43 changeup runs above average per 100 pitches in 2009 as well. However, considering he threw the pitches so little, they were bound to have such little value).

Is Joaquin going to perform better than Runzler in 2010 for the Giants? I probably wouldn't bet on it. Runzler is a lot more polished than Joaquin with his control and command at this point.

(Then again, Runzler also had less time above Single-A than Joaquin, which makes one wonder if Runzler might need to develop a little more in Fresno or Connecticut to start off the year. Joaquin pitched in 44 games in Connectictut and Fresno in 2009, while Runzler only pitched in nine games in Double-A and Triple-A.)

Whatever happens with Runzler, this is certain with Joaquin: with Merkin Valdez and Justin Miller gone from the 2009 bullpen, a spot is open in the bullpen for Joaquin to contribute right away. And, even though his 2009 wasn't as impressive on paper as one would like to hope, Joaquin certainly has the tools to succeed in 2010.

With a 96-plus fastball and a three-pitch repertoire, Joaquin is more than capable of bursting onto the scene as a surprise stopper for the Giants.