Is Brian Sabean Finally Wising Up as Giants General Manager?

I hate to say it. I am as big a Sabean basher as the next McCoven commenter on McCovey Chronicles. For years, I felt he got too much credit as GM when the Giants were riding high and competing for the NL West Division title every year. I came to these feelings because of two things: A.) He had Barry Bonds, the best hitter alive, and B.) the NL West wasn't exactly flush with talented "management" (e.g. Sabes was the best of a mediocre bunch of GMs in the NL West at the time).

But, as I write this post, the Giants are 64-49, which is three wins better than where they were at last year after 113 games. They are one game back of the Padres in the NL West, which I never would have thought back in June when they looked like a dead lock for third or fourth in the division. They are one game up in the Wild Card race, and I like their chances considering Dusty Baker is managing the Reds (e.g. They are going to self-destruct at some point).

And, who deserves some credit?

Sabes. F'ing Sabes.

Those words don't come easy. However, just look at what he's done this year.

• He signed an aging, "left for dead" ("I Spit on Your Grave"-style) Aubrey Huff to a one year deal worth three million dollars. Huff, a career DH prior to this season, was expected to play first base and provide the Giants with pop, though his projections were rather disheartening (Bill James projected a .338 wOBA and a 4.5 wRAA). What has Huff done? He has mashed (20 home runs), surpassing expectations offensively (his wOBA is .403 and his wRAA is 30) and defensively (he has played three positions and sports a cumulative 2.1 UZR). Huff has been the Giants MVP, and his WAR (4.2, which converts to about $16.9 million according to Fangraphs) proves it. And we all thought Nick Johnson (.330 wOBA; 0.1 WAR) was a better option in the off-season.
• He passed on Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, more expensive free agent choices this off-season. Granted, some of it was out of his hands (Bay said straight up he didn't want to play in SF and Holliday was demanding too large a payday because his agent is Scott Boras), but Sabes made the right move by passing on the two, expensive sluggers. While Holliday looks to be worth his salt (4.4 WAR; .388 wOBA), Bay has been a tremendous disappointment (.144 ISO; .337 wOBA; 1.3 WAR).
• He admitted he was wrong (not publicly, but in action), cut ties with Bengie Molina and by July 1st, Buster Posey was the everyday catcher, which every Giants fan wanted in the beginning of the year except the Molina family. And guess what? The move paid off. The Giants went 20-8 in July, the first time they won 20 games in July since 2000 and Posey has been a spark in the lineup (.387 wOBA; 2.4 WAR).
• He signed Pat Burrell, though everyone thought (including myself) thought it was a dumb idea, that Burrell was done, and that he was just going to cause a logjam in the Giants lineup. I was totally wrong. Bruce Bochy finally decided that Aaron Rowand was benchable, Mark Derosa got surgery and sat out the rest of the year (a blessing in disguise; Derosa would have made the lineup situation worse), and Burrell came in rejuvenated and with a chip on his shoulder to prove the Tampa stint was a fluke. Burrell has posted a .377 wOBA as a Giant, has been a model teammate and has provided one of the best moments Giants fans have had against the Dodgers in quite a while.
• And lastly, he stayed pat at the Trade Deadline, and didn't trade away any top prospects, even though everyone clamored that the Giants needed a bat. My argument for those pining for Jose Bautista or someone similar was this: Where would he play? I think Sabes realized that and decided to roll the dice on this offense, figuring that Pablo would turn it around at some point, which would cover the offense should Burrell and Posey cool (which sort of has happened). Second, the Giants have some special prospects, and I think Jonathan Sanchez is a special (not to mention affordable and under team control for two more years) pitcher, and to lose them for short-term gain would've been a travesty. If you don't believe me, look at how the Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez trades have turned out on the Giants end.

Granted, Sabes has made some blunders. Signing Molina was a bad decision. Signing Sanchez, despite his glowing recommendation from Mychael Urban (Urban said that Sanchez was a guaranteed for a .300 average and 10 home runs prior to the season and that we should "Book it." Not quite Urban. Not quite) was a bad decision (his .286 wOBA and 0.3 WAR echo that). Signing Derosa was a bad decision. Not doing enough medical research on Sanchez and Derosa in the off-season was a bad decision.

That being said, Sabes has improved on those mistakes (for the most part). He didn't stay hard-headed about improving the blunders he made earlier this year. In fact, we've seen Sabestradeable player" factory. He understands that they can help you win games NOW. I think Posey has showed him that, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some guys in the minors this year get shots at starting positions next year. A couple of years ago (last year even), we couldn't say that of Sabes. It would almost be guaranteed that a veteran would be starting on Opening Day, even if that veteran is a washed up Steve Finley.

Maybe this is all a flash in the pan. Maybe Sabes is just letting it ride because that's what he does: let things ride when they are working. Maybe he hasn't changed philosophies, but just ran out of options and got incredibly lucky with Huff, Posey and Andres Torres. Maybe this off-season, he'll fall into his same, dumb idiosyncrasies and re-sign Edgar Renteria to a one-year contract because he's been a "Great Giant" this season.

I don't know. I can't see the future. But in terms of the present, Sabes has finally earned my approval as the Giants general manager so far this season.

Now if you excuse me, I'm going to use the rest room and throw up now.

Buster Posey Up From Fresno! At-Bat Analysis Later Tonight

Being a fan who has resided in two different areas out of the Giants area for the past five years (four years in Spokane and one year so far in Los Angeles), I don't get to go to many games at AT&T Park. I long for the day when I finally am able to reside in the Bay Area and get season tickets or get enough money to purchase MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings annually. For the time being though, I have to deal with this reality of following the team from afar.

Well, in my first game of the 2010 season at AT&T Park, I will be able to see the player I have pined for all season: Buster Posey.

According to Andrew Baggarly's blog Extra Baggs, Posey is slated to start at first base tonight with Aubrey Huff moving to left. Now, I'm not so keen about this move on paper. First off, Bengie Molina is not a serviceable Major League catcher anymore (as I have noted in a post yesterday), so I don't know why the Giants cut ties with him or somehow work out a trade. I mean, Molina is poor defensively, has no power and kills the team with his lack of speed. Sure, Timmy is comfortable with him, but you know what? You're going to have to get used to Posey at some point. Why not start sooner than later?

Furthermore, I'm not sure about Huff in left. Huff has only played nine total games in his career in left field, so I wonder if he's going to be able to make the adjustment to the outfield after getting comfortable at first base this season (Huff's 0.5 UZR/150 has been a surprise, especially considering his career UZR at first base is minus-11.8). What makes the situation worse is the fact that Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker are going to be the odd men out. Because of Bruce Bochy's love for Aaron Rowand (and his .286 wOBA), Schierholtz is going to lose playing time because the Giants can't afford to bench Andres Torres, who has become the Giants' leadoff hitter. It's tough to stomach because Schierholtz has been so good defensively in his career and offensively he has stepped up nicely this year (his .340 wOBA and 0.77 BB/K ratio show that).

As for Bowker, he has struggled this year, no doubt (.276 wOBA). However, Bowker needs more playing time and has shown at time that he is on the cusp of turning it around should he be given more at-bats. With Posey up and Pat Burrell apparently on the move to the Bay Area, it almost seems like a given that Bowker is destined for Fresno real soon.

Overall, I'm happy Brian Sabean decided to suck it up and call up Posey. I hope soon enough the Giants management will come to their senses and either bench or designate Molina for assignment and put Posey behind the plate, which will keep Torres and Schierholtz in the outfield, and give the Giants their best lineup overall (both offensively and defensively).

It will definitely be interesting in the long-run. For the short term now, I'm just excited to see Posey play in person for the first time. Expect an at-bat analysis for Posey later tonight or early tomorrow after I come back home from AT&T Park.

Five Available Players the Giants Should Pass On

It's official. After today's 1-0 loss to the Oakland A's, the Giants should be in panic mode when it comes to upgrading the offense. Aaron Rowand isn't cutting it at leadoff (though this isn't exactly "surprising" news) and for whatever reason, Pablo Sandoval has suddenly transformed from budding-Vlad Guerrero to budding-Randall Simon. Add that with Bengie Molina starting to cool off and things don't look good for the Giants and their playoff aspirations.

That being said, despite the Giants desperate (and I mean, "Elizabeth Berkley needing an actress role" desperate) need for offense, they should pass on the following five players who are available and could come at low-cost, but are too much of a risk to acquire.


Number Five: Kaz Matsui, Infielder

Why Matsui is enticing

After hitting .141 and posting a wOBA of .167 to start off the year, the Houston Astros released Matsui on May 19th, deciding to go with Jeff Keppinger at second base for the remainder of the season.

While Matsui seems to be a better fit with the Colorado Rockies (who are in need of a second baseman due to Clint Barmes' slow start), Matsui could be of some use to the Giants. Edgar Renteria has struggled with injuries all year, and Freddy Sanchez's health is also in question after just coming off the disabled list. Matt Downs is a nice option and has performed well, but after falling back to earth recently, one has to wonder if he can contribute to the Giants over the course of a full season. Additionally, Juan Uribe, who also got off to a hot start, has cooled in the month of May (.242 average and .343 wOBA in May; compared to his .313 average and .358 wOBA in April).

Matsui may not be a regular starter, but he could be much needed insurance for a Giants infield that has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency so far this season.

Why Matsui is frightening

Matsui the past couple of years has really declined as a player, and it's hard to see why ESPN Magazine tagged him as the "Next" athlete in their 2004 "Next" issue.

Since 2008, Matsui's slugging numbers have dipped from .427 (in 2008) to .357 (2009) to .155 (this season). The same goes with his OBP (.354 to .302 to .197) and wOBA (.349 to .297 to .167) numbers. Granted, Matsui is not exactly young (34 years old), but it's surprising to see him take such a dive this past few years.

Add that with very questionable defense (he has had negative UZR numbers two out of the past three seasons), and Matsui proves to be a very risky option. Sure, he could be an upgrade over Renteria or Sanchez, but he could also be tremendously worse, which is very hard to stomach for Giants fans.


Why the Giants should pass

Matsui is too much of a risk and has been to much of an underachiever to take a flier on. His career wOBA is .314, and he pretty much has been living off his 2007 season in Colorado when he had a .341 wOBA and stole 32 bases. The Giants are not going to get that 2007 Matsui, or even the slightly decent 2008 version. If acquired, the Giants would get a declining infielder who won't be an upgrade over Sanchez, Renteria, Uribe, or even Downs.


Number Four: Jermaine Dye, Outfielder


Why Dye is enticing

Though he hasn't played since last year, Dye is still available and still apparently in game shape (or at least that's what he says). While last year he declined in a lot of offensive categories (his wOBA dropped from .376 in 2008 to .344 last year), he still hit 27 home runs. Considering the Giants are in dire need of a power threat (sorry...Molina in the cleanup spot for a third straight year isn't cutting it), Dye does fill in a need, and the Giants don't have to give up any prospects in return.

Why Dye is frightening

Do I really need to go through the list? Okay...I will.

1. He's 36 years old.
2. His UZR/150 has been in the minus-20 range three of the past four seasons (and when it wasn't, it was minus-18.9 in 2008).
3. He has suffered massive drop in offensive categories such as batting average (from .292 in 2008 to .250 in 2009), slugging (.541 to .453) and OPS (.885 to .793).
4. He was actually detrimental to his team last year (according to WAR values, he cost the White Sox $1.7 million dollars).
5. $1.5 million dollars isn't enough for Dye. (He's entering Latrell Sprewell territory at this point.)

Why the Giants should pass

Did you not read anything above? If you still want to sign him after reading that, then...well...I don't know what to tell you.


Number Three: Eric Byrnes, Outfielder


Why Byrnes is enticing

Well...he hustles. And he can hit bombs. Don't believe me? Check this out:



Dang. That was parked.

Why Byrnes is frightening

Well, he has had sub-.300 wOBA numbers the past three seasons, he tanked in his short stint with the Mariners this season and defensively and he isn't the Byrnes fans are accustomed to (he had a minus-8.1 UZR/150 this year with the Mariners and a minus-7.0 UZR/150 with the D'Backs in 2008).

Oh, and this is Major League baseball, not club softball.

Why the Giants should pass

Would you rather have John Bowker and Nate Schierholtz in left and right field? Or an injured Mark Derosa and Byrnes? Yeah....I think Giants fans know the answer to that one.


Number two: Carlos Lee, outfielder


Why Lee is enticing

Though he says he won't waive his no-trade clause, the clock seems to be ticking for Lee's tenure in Houston. While Lee does have a massive contract ($18.5 million per year), he does have a history of hitting for power and run production, something you can't really say out of any other players in the Giants lineup. Last year, Lee hit 26 home runs and drove in 102 RBI. Furthermore, Lee has a history of tremendous plate discipline. From 2006-2009, Lee's wOBA ranged from .355 to .396 and his BB/K ratio didn't dip below 0.76.

Those are the kinds of qualities the Giants could use in a cleanup hitter.


Why Lee is frightening

Not only has Lee gone through an awful season so far (.199 average, .250 wOBA), but he hasn't exactly won any awards for "Teammate of the Year" recently. On May 14th, Lee got in a spat with Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter, and Lee wasn't exactly gracious about it either. While Lee isn't a Barry Bonds, one has to wonder if getting a guy like Lee would be the best thing for a team that is so well-known for their clubhouse chemistry.

I mean, ask Seattle Mariners fans what it's like when you bring in a guy with "questionable character issues."

Why the Giants should pass

Lee is a big bopper, but overall, he's too expensive and is too much of a clubhouse risk for the Giants to acquire. Then again, Lee has to waive his no-trade clause in order for anything to be a possibility, but even if he does, Lee certainly isn't worth dealing for considering where he's at in his career (hint: on the decline).


Number one: Pat Burrell, outfielder

Why Burrell is enticing

Burrell is the hottest name right now on the market. Already, we have seen two Giants beat writers (Hank "I love Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy" Schulman of the Chronicle and Mychel Urban of CSN Bay Area) kibosh the rumors of the Giants having interest in Burrell, and one (Andrew Baggarly) say that the Giants could pursue him.

You can't blame the Giants having some interest. After all, Burrell won't cost the Giants anything, he is a Bay Area kid (he went to Bellarmine Prep in San Jose), he's got some nice chest hair, and he has a proven track record.

From 2005 to 2008, the lowest wOBA he posted was .374, and the lowest BB/K ratio he had in that time span was 0.62. Add that with an average of 31 home runs a year in those four seasons, and you can see why the Rays were willing to shell out some cash for him when he became a free agent after the 2008 season.

Why Burrell is frightening

The Burrell in Tampa Bay experiment really went horribly wrong for general manager Andrew Friedman and the Rays. Last year, Burrell's home run total dipped to 14 (his HR/FB ratio in 2009 was 9.8 percent; the lowest it was before that was in 2003 when it was 12.3 percent) and his wOBA plummeted to .304.

Burrell last year, for a lack of a better word, stunk. And, if you need more evidence of his mediocrity, check out his minus-9.6 wRAA (runs above average based on wOBA) and minus-0.5 WAR (which accumulated to negative-$2.3 dollars in value; Burrell was signed to a two-year, $16 million contract before 2009).

This year hasn't been much better. His HR/FB has actually gone down (to 7.4 percent) and his wOBA is even worse at .284. Furthermore, Burrell's strong plate discipline has been absent this year as well. He sports a BB/K ratio of 0.36 (the lowest of his career so far) and he has swung at 25.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (another career high).

Burrell just isn't the same player baseball fans saw from 2005-2008, and you can't blame Friedman and the Rays cutting ties with him so early in the season.

Why the Giants should pass

I would like to believe that Burrell is more comfortable in the National League than the American League East, and if he makes the transition, would kill like Brad Penny when Penny was traded from Boston to San Francisco late last year. He would make a great comeback story, and his Bay Area roots would resonate with the Giants faithful and media.

Yet, I just don't trust Burrell. His decline offensively the past two years has been eye-popping (especially the BB/K ratio and ISO drop), and he isn't good enough defensively (minus-44.6 career UZR in the outfield) to handle the dimensions of AT&T Park (not to mention make up for this offensive decline).

Burrell sounds good on paper, but Giants fans and management should be warned. He isn't worth the playing time he would take away from Andres Torres, John Bowker or Nate Schierholtz (Aaron Rowand would go unaffected because Bochy has a man-crush on Rowand, which explains why he still bats him leadoff though Rowand has an OBP under .300 and is 0-for-2 in stolen bases).

"May"-Hem: One Frustrating Week for Giants Baseball Fans

The Giants still have a chance to come out with a win from the Padres in this series. I'm trying to stay that optimistic. Jonathan Sanchez is on the hill, and for some reason, I have that feeling that Sanchez will deal and help the Giants avoid an 0-6 start to the season against the Friars. After all, he's pitched  somewhat well in the past against the Padres.

However, this isn't about the series against the Padres solely. It goes beyond that. The Giants so far this week have been frustrating the living daylights out of us fans. Here are some reasons why:



The Giants' Ineptitude Against the Padres This Series


Check out the game graphs from yesterday and today's losses on Fangraphs.

I'm sorry. That sucks. It sucks because when you look at the graphs, you realize we just have gone downhill and haven't clawed back in the slightest this series against a team that we are better on paper against. (At home nonetheless!) It sucks to see the Padres doing the damage this series, and it's guys like Jerry Hairston Jr. and Yorvit "I can't hit against anybody but the Giants"  Torrealba.

Ugh...I'm getting sick to my stomach. Looking at these graphs makes me feel like the Duke brothers at the end of "Trading Places."



Brian Sabean Saying "Triple-A" Doesn't Matter

I hate Sabean. I hated him before and I hate him even more after he made some asinine comments in an article by San Jose Mercury Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly in regard to the prospect of bringing up Buster Posey. Here's a "gem of wisdom" from the longest tenured general manager in Major League Baseball.

"Triple-A baseball isn't very good," Sabean said. "I'm going to tell you that right now. Especially from a pitching standpoint. Anybody who can pitch is in the big leagues."

Lunacy. Sabean makes absolute no sense and ends up sounding not only like an idiot, but a blowhard idiot to boot. (And I'm not the only one saying it's dumb either.)

Look...we get it Sabes. You don't want bring up Posey and mess up the arbitration process like you did with Tim Lincecum. We know you can't say that to the media. However, you have reasonable excuses. Say you're "Behind Bengie and Eli (or "Whitey" as Bruce Bochy likes to call him) for the time being." Say "Posey could use half a season working with Madison Bumgarner."

But to say "Triple-A baseball isn't very good?" Come on. You know you aren't going to win that argument, and you just make the Giants organization and Giants fans look foolish.

I wish I could write pieces like this about Sabean, but it's times like this that prove time and time again why Sabean is such an overrated (and over-employed) general manager.


Bengie Molina: "Mr. Outspoken."

I really like Bengie. I do. He's the best catcher we've had in a Giants uniform since Bob Brenly and he is a great clubhouse guy that has worked well with our pitching staff. Furthermore, it is very hard to find a decent hitting catcher these days, let alone a good one like Molina, so you have to feel, as a Giants fan, we've been pretty lucky these past three-plus years.

Yet, Molina seems to be wearing out his welcome with the Giants. First off, he hasn't made things easy with the Posey situation (apparently, he's "frustrated" with how it's being handled). Secondly, on his personal blog, Behind the Mask, he went on a bit of a tirade against ESPN, which poked fun at his speed (or lack thereof) on Sportscenter. Here's a little tidbit from his post today:

"Look, you can say I'm the slowest guy in baseball or in  all of sports or in the entire world. I don't take issue with that because I AM the slowest guy. I have always been the slowest guy. I can't challenge that criticism. But ESPN's intention was not to criticize but to humiliate."

I'm sorry Bengie, but I just got to disagree with you on these two things. First off, I know you're ticked that you didn't get offered more money this off-season. I know you got screwed over by the Mets, and you deserve to be angry. But nobody forced you to sign this off-season with the Giants. Heck, even Giants management implored you to not sign with the Giants. You knew Posey was the catcher of the future and still, you signed anyway. You don't have any excuse or leeway to complain about this.

In terms of point two, it's ESPN. Everybody gets made fun of there. What else did you expect? Have you watched Sportscenter the past ten years? That's just the nature of how the show is. Furthermore, if you don't want anymore criticism (I saw the telecast, it's really not that bad) then don't attract any attention to yourself. Nobody would have remembered the slow-mo of you running home beyond today, but because you brought it up, it'll be talked for at least a few more. Let sleeping dogs lie Bengie. ESPN poking fun at you for something you know to be pretty obvious is nothing to cry "murder" over. It could have been worse.


Mark Derosa's Wrist Problems

Another reason for my dislike of Sabean. He commits $24 million this off-season to Mark Derosa and Freddy Sanchez. What happens? Sanchez begins the year on the Disabled List because of off-season knee surgery, and now, Derosa claims that his wrist surgery this off-season was a "total failure" in an article in the San Jose Mercury.

DeRosa said he "didn't feel great" when he started to hit before Giants camp opened, "but I just figured that was part of coming back from wrist surgery. And in spring training, you can kind of dance around it. You can feel good and get a couple of windblown doubles in the gap, and everybody thinks you're ready to go."

That's awesome. Not only did Sabean sign one guy with injury problems (simply because he needed to save face after trading away Tim Alderson), it appears that he signed two this off-season (three if you count Edgar Renteria the previous season). What makes this even better? Remember '51's boy Fred Lewis is doing serious damage in Toronto. Here's what he's doing with the Blue Jays:

1.) Batting leadoff (something Giants fans said "He couldn't do.")
2.) Hitting .296 with a .813 OPS, 10 doubles, 13 RBI, 14 R and 3 SB.
3.) Being clutch (wonder how the guys at Bleacher Report feel about this article now) and winning Blue Jays fans over (Bluebird Banter said that it would be a travesty if Lewis is taken out of the lineup in favor of a Edwin Encarnacion at third, Jose Bautista in the outfield, lineup when Encarnacion returns).

But I guess we just had to sign Derosa, right?

Molina, Whiteside or Posey: What Course Do the Giants Take?

It was supposed to be the Buster Posey era in San Francisco in 2010. The highly-touted draft pick from Florida State that signed the largest draft bonus in club history was supposed to be taking his position behind the plate on Opening Day this year, working with arguably one of the best pitching staffs in the Major Leagues, and helping the Giants in their quest to make the playoffs for the first time since 2003.

Well, the pitching staff is still doing well (at least the starting pitching anyways), and the Giants are still in the hunt in the NL West (they enter a three game series against the first-place San Diego Padres today), but Posey is in Fresno, playing in ballparks all across the Pacific Coast League rather than the National League.

What happened?

You could contribute a lot of things really. Bengie Molina overestimating his value on the market (he turned down a two-year deal from the Mets because he wanted more money, only the Mets pulled the deal on him at the last minute and decided to go with Rod Barajas instead). Bruce Bochy's undying love for "veterans." Brian Sabean second-guessing himself.

Whatever the specific (or combination of) reason(s), the fact remains this: Molina and Eli Whiteside are in the Majors, and Posey is not and it's a shame.

Why is it a shame? Look at Posey's stats. He's proven so far in 2010 that he's too good for the PCL. In 30 games, Posey is hitting .345 with five home runs, 21 RBI and has an OPS of .994. Furthermore, it's not just his offense that has been impressive either. Posey has a caught stealing rate of 50 percent so far this year, and the Fresno Grizzlies pitching staff and team has flourished. The Grizzlies have the seventh-best team ERA in the PCL, and the Grizzlies are currently 20-11, the best record in the PCL.

Posey is ready for the Major Leagues. All he needs is the opportunity.

And that is the problem. There isn't one for him right now.

First off, Molina is doing well. He is hitting .333, has an OPS of .859 and a wOBA of .376. What has been most impressive about Molina has been his improved approach at the plate. After posting BB/K ratios of 0.28, 0.50 (actually pretty good for him) and 0.19 the last three years as a Giant, his BB/K ratio sits at 0.88 currently. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but it's a promising number, especially considering that Molina drawing a walk last year was about as rare as a good Tori Spelling show/movie/project post "90210".

What has been so key in Molina's approach? Swinging less and swinging less outside the strike zone. Last year, Molina swung at 59.5 percent of pitches and 43.9 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. This season? He has only swung 44.7 percent of the time and has only swung at 30.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone this year. The more patient approach has paid off, as he has made better contact at the plate (he has an 88.4 percent contact rate this year in comparison to an 81.4 percent contract rate last year) and has gotten on base more (.402 OBP).

Molina though, despite his solid start, isn't perfect. Bochy has inserted him back in the lineup in cleanup hole, but he may be less suited for that role this season. While he has hit more line drives this year (20.4 percent), his HR/FB ratio is dramatically down at 5.3 percent. The lowest it has been as a Giant was in 2008, when it was 6.8 percent. Granted, Molina could improve that ratio and hit more home runs (since he is still hitting the ball in the air over 50 percent of the time), but at his age, that seems less likely, and thus, he seems less qualified to be the Giants' number four hitter in 2010.

Molina isn't the only blockade for Posey, however. Whiteside surprisingly has gotten off to a good start as well, which gives Sabean and Bochy even more of an excuse to keep Posey in Fresno. Whiteside is hitting .333 with two home runs in 35 plate appearances and has an OPS of 1.061 and a wOBA of .453. Additionally, Whiteside has a great reputation working with the Giants pitching staff, especially Jonathan Sanchez, who has had gotten off to very solid start in 2010.

Unlike Molina though, Whiteside's other numbers are far less impressive, and he seems to be more of a fluke this season than anything. His BB/K ratio in 35 plate appearances is 0.29. While that is an improvement from his BB/K ratio last season (when it was 0.17), it is still far from league average (which is 0.51 this year). Sure, Whiteside should be commended for his plate approach (he has only swung at 18.1 percent of pitches outside the strikezone this season), but he simply doesn't draw enough walks (5.7 percent this year, and ZiPS projects that he'll end up with a walk rate of 4.5 percent) and doesn't make good enough contact at the plate (74.5 percent contact rate) to merit regular playing time.

So, the Giants have three solid catcher who are all performing well. What should they do?

I know it sounds crazy, but the Giants seriously should think about shopping Molina. Already, he seems to be restless in San Francisco after not getting a better deal this off-season, and he seems to be pulling a "Brett Favre" (e.g. threatening retirement) by remarking that he is not keen on splitting time with Posey as well. If he is putting up solid numbers still by June and July, he would be a very valuable asset to a team like Boston or Seattle, a team that seriously needs a catcher. That way, the Giants not only get to promote Posey and give him his deserved shot, but they could get something of value in return. Molina may not generate as much value as in years past, but he is still a solid commodity that could earn one or two lower-tier prospects in return (which would be refreshing to see considering its the Giants always GIVING AWAY prospects during this season).

As for Whiteside? Keep him on as long as he's doing well, and then either a.) have him backup Posey when/if Molina is gone or b.) cut ties with him altogether. Seriously, I know Whiteside is a great story, but like I said before, history shows that he isn't a Major League catcher (and many people are in line with this thought as well).

This is all theory of course, but knowing Sabean and his "thoughts" on Posey and Triple-A, I doubt all this will happen. It's more likely to see a sixth season of "The Wire" than Molina traded away and Whiteside released to make room for Posey.

Giants Baseball: Where Blocking and Jettisoning Promising Players Happens!

Alex Gordon a Giant? A Good or Bad Idea?

I'm very interested in the news about Alex Gordon getting sent down to Omaha this weekend. In many ways, it is a peculiar move by Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (who may be on par with Brian Sabean in terms of general managing ineffectiveness).

Gordon started the year on the disabled list and has only played in 12 games and had 38 plate appearances this season. However, while his batting average (.194) or wOBA (.299) aren't that impressive, Gordon does have an OBP of .342 and a BB/K ratio of 0.88.

What has been the problem for Gordon this year? Two things really.

1.) He hasn't gotten very lucky in terms of finding hits (.227 BABIP).
2.) The infield in Kansas City is extremely crowded. (Gordon is competing with Chris Getz, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo...yes, that's one DEEP infield baseball fans!)

In terms of point number two, in my opinion, Gordon is a better option than Getz, Betancourt and Bloomquist (and perhaps better than Aviles). However, that doesn't seem to be an opinion Moore shares, as evidenced by Gordon's demotion.

Hence, the debate amongst the baseball world is whether or not Moore is going to trade Gordon. Considering he's only 26 years old, Gordon still has some value, even if it isn't quite as high as it was when he was deemed the No. 2 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America before the 2007 season.

So, with Gordon maybe available, that begs Bay Area baseball fans to ask this question: should Sabean and the Giants pull a trade with Kansas City for the young third baseman? (If you don't think that's a possibility, you might be mistaken, as this is already a hot topic in the Giants blogosphere.)

Let's look at the positives and negatives of this "hypothetical" deal.


Positives

1.) Gordon's Plate Patience

Like I said before, Gordon is posting a BB/K ratio of 0.88. He has seven walks (which would tie him for fourth on this current Giants team) in 38 plate appearances (in comparison, Edgar Renteria, who also has seven walks, has earned those totals in 84 plate appearances).

Over his career, Gordon has shown a patient eye at the plate. Last season, despite dealing with injury most of the season, and only posting a .232 average and a .321 wOBA, he had a 0.49 BB/K ratio (which would have been sixth best on last year's Giants roster in term of players with 50 or more plate appearances). In 2008, his second full big-league season, he posted a 0.55 BB/K ratio.

The only season where he struggled in terms of plate patience was his first full rookie season in 2007, when he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.30. However, since that rookie year, Gordon has honed his approach, mainly by cutting down on swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. In 2007 and 2008, Gordon only swung at 24.1 and 24.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (the league average was 25.4 and 25.1 percent, respectively).

This season? He has been even better, as his O-Swing percentage stands at 19.8 percent. This season, nobody on the Giants roster with 20 or more plate appearances has an O-Swing percentage under 20 percent (Andres Torres has the best percentage at 20.9 percent). The only guy who had an O-Swing percentage under 20 percent last year (Fred Lewis, who had a 19.4 percent O-Swing percentage) is now a Toronto Blue Jay.


2.) Gordon is developing his power.

In 2008, Gordon posted his best offensive season. He hit .260 with a .351 OBP and hit 16 home runs and scored 72 runs. His wOBA was .344 and he had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) value of 2.3.

However, he only had a HR/FB rate of 8.9 percent in 2008.

In 2009, he had a much worse statistical season. His wOBA was .321 and he hit only six home runs in 189 plate appearances. However, his HR/FB rate dramatically improved to 12.0 percent in 2009, despite dealing with injury and ineffectiveness all season.

This season has been very similar. Despite dealing with injury and being flip-flopped in and out of the roster, Gordon has hit one home run, which puts his HR/FB ratio at 11.1 percent this season (he has hit nine fly balls and six line drives in comparison to eight groundballs).

Sure, the numbers don't look as good in 2009 or in 2010 as they did in 2008. But Gordon is developing power. All he needs is more at-bats.


Negatives

1.) Gordon strikes out a lot.

Despite a strong ability to draw a walk, Gordon unfortunately strikes out a good amount. From 2007 through 2010, his strikeout percentage has been 25.2 percent, 24.3 percent, 26.2 percent, and 25.8 percent. All those totals were higher than the league average each season.

Furthermore, Gordon isn't exactly strong in terms of making contact. From 2007 through 2010, his contact rate has ranged from 75.4 percent (this season) to 76.7 percent (last year). To put it in perspective, the league average for hitters in terms of contact percentage is a little over 80 percent generally.

Striking out isn't something that Giants management or fans seem to tolerate very well. Here is a post by jasomack, a member of the McCovey Chronicles blog, concerning the idea of the Giants getting Gordon:

"I’d love the Giants to try something like this. If he played to his career averages, the uptick in defense bump probably makes him comparable to Huff, and he has some real upside. But it’s just a dumb fantasy. Gordon has the attributes the Giants brass undervalues most: patience and youth. He also strikes out a lot. Those things got Fred Lewis deported."

Unfortunately, he makes a great point. Gordon, offensively at least, seems to be very similar to Lewis. I think it's safe to say that doesn't bode well.

2.) Gordon's questionable defense.

The big argument of moving Pablo to first is that his defense is mediocre, and there is evidence of that (depending on how much you believe in advanced defensive metrics). Last season, Sandoval posted a minus-4.8 UZR and a minus-7.1 UZR/150 ("minus" meaning he cost the team runs; "positive" UZR numbers mean that he saved the team runs). This year, he hasn't been much better, as evidenced by his minus-1.5 UZR and minus-22.7 UZR/150.

Unfortunately though, on paper, Gordon doesn't seem to be much better.

While he posted a solid UZR (6.9) in 137 games at third base in 2007, he struggled "Winona Ryder in Mr. Deeds" style in 2008. In 133 games at third, he posted a minus-4.0 UZR. In 2009, he improved that number a little bit (his UZR was only minus-1.7), but considering he played less games, the projection wasn't much better in 2009 (his UZR/150 was minus-5.3) than in 2008 (his UZR/150 was minus-4.7).

Therefore, the Giants are in a dilemma if they acquire Gordon: do they supplant Sandoval at first for a guy who can't compare offensively and may not be that much better defensively at third than Sandoval?

Doesn't sound enticing does it?


Verdict

Overall, there is a lot to like about Gordon, and because of his plate patience and youth, I'm inclined to go after him. However, the reality is, despite Moore being the Michael Bay of the baseball management world (e.g. all flash, no substance), he won't give up Gordon without getting a pretty penny on return, and I don't know how much the Giants can offer after they got hosed on Scott Barnes and Tim Alderson last year. I mean, it sounds good to say that "Oh let's give up John Bowker, Jesus Guzman and maybe a Wendell Fairley" for him, but in reality, general managers aren't usually that dumb. (And I emphasize usually.)

It's not completely impossible, but considering the Giants wants (power) and acquisition style (big-name veterans), it doesn't seem likely that Gordon will be sporting a black and orange uniform this season.

Does Joe Torre and the Dodgers Have Bruce Bochy and the Giants' Number?

So, the Giants lost 10-8 last night to the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. It wasn't close, though the score showed that it was a two-run game. Todd Wellemeyer got shellacked, Edgar Renteria has continued his plummet at the plate, Vicente Padilla looked like a legitimate No.1 starter (which he isn't), and Andre Ethier resembled a first-ballet Hall of Famer.

Add that with Aaron Rowand getting plunked in the head, and it was safe to say that it was a rather forgettable night for the Giants.

Yet, despite it being just one of many games in the 2010 season between the Giants and Dodgers (that's how I'm coping with it anyways), I found out something very interesting about yesterday's loss against the Dodgers.

The Giants lost the series opener to the Dodgers for the fourth straight season. (The last time the Giants beat the Dodgers in their series opener was in 2006, when they beat LA at Chavez Ravine 2-1, thanks to eight innings of five-hit ball by Jamey Wright.)

Who has been the manager in that time span? None other than Bruce Bochy.  (The manager in 2006 was Felipe Alou.)

Now, the series opener, in the grand scheme of things, is inconsequential. It's just one regular season game, and a season isn't made or broken by a single game.

However, when you look at the overall numbers against the Dodgers in Bochy's tenure, they don't look pretty.

The Giants under Bochy are 24-31 against the Blue Boys from Los Angeles and have been outscored by 67 runs against the Dodgers in this time span (Giants have scored 206 runs; the Dodgers have scored 273).

The most glaring number, however? In two seasons, manager Joe Torre has two NL West Division titles. Bruce Bochy? He just had his first winning season as Giants manager in 2009 (though he has a very good chance to make it two winning seasons in a row this year).

When you look at it on paper, it's pretty easy to come to this conclusion: Bochy can't manage the team against the Dodgers, Torre has the Giants' number, and managing partner Bill Neukom needs to find somebody who can beat Torre and the Dodgers.

That being said, you have to take that statement with a grain of salt, and cut Bochy some slack in some areas:

1.) Bochy Inherited A Bad Team, while Torre Inherited A Solid One

This is pretty obvious. Talent-wise, there is no comparison. The Dodgers have had superior talent in comparison to the Giants the past three seasons (at least offensively; the tide has changed since 2009 in terms of pitching talent). Torre just happened to be a decent manager, something you couldn't quite say of his predecessor Grady Little. With a guy they could somewhat respect on the bench, the Dodgers finally broke out like everybody envisioned.

As for the Giants, Felipe Alou wasn't that bad of a manager, but he wasn't that great either. That being said, the lineups in the Alou era were far more talented than anything Bochy has had to deal with. Bochy can make the lineup sure, but he doesn't acquire the players and he can't bat for them.

2.) Bochy Is Brian Sabean's Guy

Bruce Bochy was hired by Brian Sabean to replace Alou in 2007. When Sabean was up for contract renewal, it was assumed that Sabean would re-hire Bochy despite some sentiment out there that the Giants should head in a different direction when it came to the manager. When Sabes' was re-signed, so was Bochy almost immediately afterward.

Bochy and Sabean are quite the pair, and thus, Giants fans need to keep in context that Bochy's decisions are also, in many ways, Sabean's as well. Sabean is supplying him with the players and Sabean is trading away the ones he doesn't want to play. Sabean has an agenda with this Giants team, and Bochy carries it out without much complaint.

Thus, to say the Giants' ineffectiveness in the Bochy-era is completely on Bochy is unfair. If anything, it has been more on Sabean and the roster he has assembled under Bochy.

Granted, this could be a different year for Bochy. The Giants have a little bit more offense than in years past under Bochy (a little bit, not a lot) and the pitching staff looks to be stellar (far more stellar than the Dodgers, who's bullpen looks ready to fall off the face of the earth any second).

Unfortunately, as of this moment, the Dodgers have Bochy's number and there is a possibility that it could get worse, which won't help Bochy's reputation, which is already hot and cold with a lot of the Giants faithful.

Just remember though, while Bochy may not be the best manager for this current Giants organization (they need someone who can play younger guys and give them extended chances; then again, the GM has to do that too), he isn't solely at fault here. Sure, the record may not be great against Torre's Dodgers, but it's not like he's single-handedly losing games out there for the Giants.

When you look at the managerial record on baseball reference, don't look at it like "Bruce Bochy vs. Joe Torre." Instead, look at it like "Bochy-Sabean vs. Torre-Ned Colletti (the Dodgers GM)."

The losing record in the past three seasons against LA will make a lot more sense.

What Will Happen to Fred Lewis? (And How Will the Giants Be Affected?)

Fred Lewis' stint on the Disabled List and rehab assignment in Fresno is shortly coming to an end. By this weekend, three things will happen to Lewis:

A.) He will be traded to another Major League ballclub (the Blue Jays, Padres and Athletics have been rumored destinations, with Toronto the most likely destination).

B.) He will be designated for assignment (e.g. waived).

C.) He will remain on the Giants roster, and either John Bowker will get sent down to Fresno or Eugenio Velez, Travis Ishikawa or Andres Torres will get designated for assignment.

While a lot of Giants and baseball fans still keep hope that the Giants management will come to their senses and keep Lewis on the roster, the last option seems very, very unlikely. Lewis' down season in 2009 and his "bad" defense according to baseball fans and writers' "eyes" (despite UZR showing that Lewis is an above-average defender) have just burned too many bridges for Lewis to stay in San Francisco.

It's a shame, really. As a Giants fan, you wish the general manager didn't stack the outfield with so many similar (albeit mediocre-to-above-average) pieces. You wish beat writers like Hank Schulman didn't have so much influence and weren't so ignorant to baseball statistics (seriously, his crusade against OBP is an argument that was made six-seven years ago) on Giants fans.

But like I said, it is what it is. (The worst part is that Schulman's "I'm old-school! I judge baseball by my eyes! OBP isn't a valid stat!" is seeping into our online communities.)

So, basically it comes down to A or B.

In my opinion, it's going to be A.

First off, I know Lewis doesn't have a lot of trade value, thus, many Giants fans will say "Who is going to want him? Nobody will trade for him at this point!"

Yet I point to Merkin Valdez as a key example of why designating guys for assignment can be tough, and should be avoided if necessary (though they did get lucky with Jesus Guzman).

Sure, Valdez did not have a good year last year. However, a pitcher that averages 95.5 MPH on his fastball isn't exactly easy to find, especially on the waiver wire. The Blue Jays realized this, played hard ball with the Giants so the Giants wouldn't think Valdez had any value for a trade, and swooped him up for practically nothing once Brian Sabean designated Valdez for assignment.

I guarantee you Sabean doesn't want to get burned like he did with Valdez again. And considering the Blue Jays and their fans are showing strong interest in Lewis, Sabean most likely will exhaust all his options before designating Lewis for assignment (and really, really exhaust them, even if it produces a "Kevin Frandsen to Boston").

With option B out of the way, that leaves us with A. Which team is going to trade with the Giants, and what are the Giants going to get back in return?

As of now, Toronto seems like the most logical choice. The Padres have a crowded outfield chock-full with young talent such as Tony Gwynn, Jr., Kyle Blanks and Will Venable, so Lewis doesn't seem to fit down in southern California (and I can't see Sabean trading within the division either). The Athletics have a similar situation. Though they have benefited in the past from the Giants' DFA transactions (e.g. Rajai Davis), there just isn't a place in Oakland's organizations for Lewis amongst Coco Crisp, Davis, Michael Taylor, Eric Patterson and Ryan Sweeney.

As for Toronto? In addition to new general manager Alex Anthopoulos' recent history of acquiring Giants (he also picked up Brian Bocock in addition to Valdez this off-season), the Blue Jays seem to be a solid fit for Lewis. Currently, the starting outfield consists of Travis Snider in left field, Vernon Wells in center field and Jose Bautista in right field.

Wells seems to be a mainstay due to his contract and "star" status. Snider and Bautista however, are on shakier ground.

Bautista seems to be a stellar player, though he is a bit of a journeyman and older (he'll be 30 in October). While his batting average wasn't great in 2009 (.235 last year), he posted a solid BB/K ratio (0.66) and has the ability to hit between 10-15 home runs in a season (he has hit 28 COMBINED the past two seasons). Additionally, Bautista was stellar defensively, as evidenced by his 5.1 UZR in right field last year.

Snider on the other hand, hasn't been quite as impressive. Lewis is actually an upgrade over him in almost every category. He strikes out less than Snider (28.5 percent strikeout rate to Snider's 32.4 in 2009), has a better BB/K ratio (0.43 to Snider's 0.37 in 2009), steals more bases (29 combined SB for Lewis the last two years, one total for Snider in his Major League career) and their wOBA numbers were identical in 2009 (.327).

Sure, Sinder is younger (22), so you have to cut him some slack. Yet with only Adam Lind (who's primarily the Blue Jays' designated hitter) and Jeremy Reed as the team's other outfielders at the moment, having Lewis as a platoon outfielder probably would be in the Blue Jays' best interests. He would have a lot of impact on the lineup, and he wouldn't cost the Jays too much in return.

Yet the main question  Giants fans (as this is a Giants blog after all) have to wonder is this: what will the Giants receive in return should Sabean trade Lewis to Toronto?

The Blue Jays' organization isn't great (they were ranked 26th in Fangraphs' organizational rankings going into this season; though the Giants weren't much better at 23), but they do have some interesting talent in the minors.

While the big names such as Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek won't be touched, they have promising infielders who could be dealt in Brad Emaus and Kevin Ahrens (Emaus is coming off a solid season in Double-A, while Ahrens is coming off a poor season in high Single-A). The Jays do have a lot of assets in terms of pitching such as David Purcey and Robert Ray (and Jason Frasor would be an interesting pickup considering he just lost the closer's position to Kevin Gregg this week), but pitching doesn't really seem to be a need for the Giants now, be it in the starting rotation or bullpen.

It will be very interesting see what the Giants will do/get with Lewis. When you look at his WAR converted to dollars the past two years ($11 million in 2008; $5.1 million in 2009), you would think Lewis would generate a lot of return in a trade. But alas, the deadline on Lewis' future in San Francisco is getting closer, and for some reasons, it seems as if Lewis will be going to the Jays for scraps or designated for assignment, most likely getting picked up by Toronto the second he hits the waiver wire.

It's going sting when Lewis leaves. Lewis should leave to better memories than bleacher bums yelling at him all the time for no reason at AT&T Park, and 50-year-old men (or 24-year-old frat boys) on blogs or message boards writing "HE STRIKES OUT LOOKING ALL THE TIME!" (In caps lock, no less.)

All I hope for Lewis now is that he can have a good career, and that the Giants at least get SOMETHING worthwhile out of his leaving.

Giant Change is Needed: Why the Neukom-Sabean Relationship is Doomed to Fail

With Spring Training officially on it's way, the off-season, for the most part is officially done. Sure, there are some lingering free agents out there and perhaps some late-additions to the Giants roster could (but shouldn't) happen, but for the most part, the Giants seem pretty much set with their roster as they head into the 2010 season, which begins in less than a month.

That being said, the most widely-asked question by Giants fans (other than how the Giants are going to do in 2010, of course) has to be this:

How did the Giants do this off-season?

That is an interesting question. Of course, we won't truly know until the games start. We won't know if Mark Derosa just had a bad stretch with St. Louis because of injury, or if he is on the decline until the regular-season starts. We won't know how Aubrey Huff's defense at first will fare until the regular season starts. We won't know if Freddy Sanchez will be fully healthy again and be the NL All-Star he was in the first half of 2009 until the regular season starts.

Yet, there is one thing Giants fans can say about this off-season before the regular season starts:

Managing General Partner Bill Neukom and General Manager Brian Sabean are not a good fit for each other.

In many ways, this is a different Giants ownership from what we have seen in the past. Sure, former Managing Partner Peter Magowan is still on as a Principal Partner, but it's Neukom calling the shots, and his shots certainly have been felt this off-season if you look at the list:

• In terms of free agency, the Giants didn't sign anybody beyond a two-year contract. Freddy Sanchez and Mark Derosa both received two-year, $12 million offers. Aubrey Huff received a one-year $3 million offer. Juan Uribe received a one-year, $3.25 million offer, and Bengie Molina received a one-year, $4.5 million offer.
• The Giants didn't have to sacrifice too much in arbitration. Jonathan Sanchez earned a $2.1 million dollar extension in arbitration. Brian Wilson earned a $4.4375 million extension. And Tim Lincecum, their franchise player who had earned TWO Cy Young awards in his first TWO seasons, earned a two-year extension, but will only be paid $9 million in 2010 (he will earn $14 million in 2011).
• The Giants didn't make any serious offers to any big-time free-agents. The biggest offer they made was $19 million total to Adam LaRoche, but even then, that contract was only a two-year deal. Yes, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon and Matt Holliday didn't show interest in signing with the Giants, but it did not seem as if the Giants showed much interest in them in return.

What can we judge from those three points? The days of free-wheeling contracts and over-spending might be a thing in the past. Even last year, in Neukom's first season as Managing Partner, Neukom and Sabean played it on the conservative end. The biggest free agent deal that was made was Edgar Renteria's two-year $18.5 million deal (and that turned out to be a dud). And, even though there seemed to be a prime opportunity for the Giants to swing in, they stayed clear of Manny Ramirez, even though he could have brought instant impact to their anemic offense.

For some reason, I can't see this conservatism from Magowan. Magowan was known for being a fan first, and he spent like a fan. If the Giants needed to make a splash in free agency (e.g. Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina, Moises Alou, etc.), Magowan opened the pocket book for Sabean and allowed him to do so. If the Giants needed to make a big trade regardless of the cost (e.g. A.J. Pierzynski for Boof Bonser, Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano), Magowan gave gave the green flag to Sabean.

Magowan wanted the Giants to win regardless of how it affected his bottom line in the balance sheet. It worked to both the Giants fans' advantage (Three NL West titles in 1997, 2000 and 2003, and an NL Pennant and near-World Series win in 2002) and to their disadvantage (Ignoring the steroid culture during the Bonds Era, the accumulation of bad contracts and lack of farm system development).

Neukom, on the other hand, doesn't seem inclined to run things the "Magowan Way." Just from what we've seen in his first two years, Neukom seems more concerned about mitigating risk rather than making a big splash. You could see this attitude during last season's Trade Deadline. The acqusitions were modest: two players (Sanchez and Ryan Garko) for two top pitching prospects (Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes). Neither of the players the Giants recieved were premiere (and remember, Holliday and Roy Halladay were on the market), but the cost wasn't extraordinary either (remember, the Seattle Mariners gave up four prospects for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell last off-season).

To be honest, I don't think there's anything wrong with Neukom's managing style. If done properly (think the Oakland A's of the Early 2000's, the 2003 Florida Marlins and the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays) the conservative approach to building a ballclub can be worthwhile. It can not only produce immediate success, but it can set up the seeds of future success because you're relying on younger, cheaper options rather than the high-risk, high-reward players you get through free agency. Sure, it doesn't always work (Kansas City and general manager Dayton Moore have been struggling to find success through this mindset because many players haven't lived up to expectations, like Alex Gordon), but with the right people, and the right mindset, success is not just possible, it's likely.

Yet that's the problem at this current moment. Sabean is not the right person to head the kind of management style that Neukom presents. Sabean is similar to a guy like New York Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman: he needs a lot of money, and he needs to spend a lot of money to achieve success. That's what he did from 1997-2008. Magowan gave him a lot of money, and he spent it on as many free agents as he possibly could, from Dave Roberts to Steve Finley to Ryan Klesko to Rich Aurilia, version 2.5.

Unfortunately, Sabean can't do that anymore, and as a Giants fan, you can tell he's going through withdrawls about it. He wants to spend more money on guys like LaRoche or Molina (they lucked out because the market tanked on Molina), but you feel Neukom won't let him do it. So, he just goes after to whatever he can, spending it on guys who are big names, but not necessarily fits on this team.

He spends $3 million on Huff to play first base, even though Huff hasn't played first base regularly in his career. He spends $12 million on Sanchez, even though Sanchez has a questionable injury history. He spends $12 million on Derosa, even though Derosa is better suited as a complementary player for a heavily offensive lineup rather than a primary player for a team that needs offense.

And the worst part? You get this strange feeling that Sabean held back in negotiations. You feel that if Magowan were still running things Huff would get a two-year deal instead of one and Sanchez would get a four-year deal instead of two. As a Giants fan, you feel that these off-season acquisitions were not all done by Sabean, but rather, were Sabean's ideas dictated by Neukom's prices. It seems as if Neukom put a price ceiling up, said "This is the high mark, don't go beyond it," and Sabean worked accordingly, and predictably (going with questionable, in-regression veterans).

That's why Sabean and Neukom can't work. It's almost as if Neukom and his managing team are baiting Sabean to find a more efficient way of running a team. It's almost as if they are hinting to him to rely more on players in their system rather than free agents. I think that's why they gave him the two-year extension this off-season. The average age of the Giants' Opening Day lineup in 2009 was 25.67 years-old. They thought that was a sign that he would get it, and play into their "efficient spending" model.

And yet, he doesn't get it, and I don't think Sabean ever will. The projected Opening Day lineup in 2010 has an average age of 30.67 years-old. The payroll increased from just over $82 million to just over $90 million (at this point) in less than one year (and the payroll most likely will go up by Opening Day). That's not efficiency. That's not what the Marlins, A's and Rays did en route to success.

If anything, it is just ineffectiveness, compounded by ignorance.

Neukom can find success as an owner despite his "cost-conscious" ways. However, Sabean isn't going to help him achieve that success. He's only going to hinder, if not prevent it from happening. The route to success in Neukom's "style" isn't through veterans, but with youth. It isn't through big-names, but efficient, "worth more than they're paid" players.

There are two-years left on Neukom's contract, and for all we, as Giants fans, know, Sabean may be around for two more years. If that's what happens, so be it.

But it needs to be known: change is drastically needed. This off-season proved that. The Giants need a general manager that will follow the path the A's, the Marlins and Rays set forth for Major League teams that want to be efficient with money, but still competitive.

Who is that guy? I don't know, but it certainly isn't Sabean.

The Five Songs (and Music Videos) That Describe the Brian Sabean Era

My feelings about San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean change all the time. I think he does a great job developing pitching talent, but I think he drafts and develops position players poorly (either doesn't give them a chance, or throws them in the fire too quickly, only to pull the plug on them right when they start to show some promise). I believe he is great at finding bullpen help off the scrap, but I also believe he has a tendency to overpay guys in Free Agency.

So, what do I do with these feelings concerning Sabes? Well, I decided to pick five songs that describe each era for the Giants under the longest-tenured general manager currently in Major League Baseball. I basically split up Sabes' tenure into five eras: 1997-2001, 2002-2004, 2005-2008, 2009, and 2010-beyond. For each of those eras I will have a song that describes the general gist of that era under Sabean.

(FYI: these aren't typical, "we all know these!" songs. Yes, I could have gone with "We are the Champions" by Queen for the 1997 team, but where's the fun in that? I wanted to find songs that you may recognize but you haven't heard in a long time because a.) they were under-appreciated in their time or b.) they were one-hit wonders and probably sucked. Either way, don't expect the usual when it comes to these song choices to describe Sabes' tenure. After all, Sabes is not the "usual" general manager in Major League Baseball.)

1997-2001: "More and More" by Captain Hollywood Project

After 1996, Giants fans wanted more from our general manager after a last place finish in the NL West in 1996. Who could blame Giants fans? We had Mark Carreon playing first and Bill Van Landingham was supposedly one of our foundations in the pitching rotation. That was not what Giants fans wanted after Peter Magowan signed Barry Bonds to big bucks in December of 1992.

So, Magowan brought in Sabean, who promised Giants fans more, and you know what? He delivered. First he traded away Matt Williams for Jose Vizcaino, Joe Roa and Jeff Kent, and it worked. Then he made Shawn Estes the ace of the rotation and he won 19 games. Then he brought in Darryl Hamilton and we finally had a decent leadoff guy since Darren Lewis left town.

1997 and 2000 produced NL West championships, and Sabean set a new standard for Giants fans: we got more and he fostered an attitude of wanting more. And for a while, Sabean delivered, always adding more to the Giants' teams from this timespan, be it free agents or veterans acquired through trades.

At the time, Giants fans all liked the "more" Sabean was delivering. If we only knew what it would produce down the line.

2002-2004: "Sweet Dreams" by La Bouche

These were the pinnacle years of Sabean's tenure as general manager. The Giants won the NL Pennant in 2002, finished with the best regular season record in baseball in 2003 (in the midst of changing managers and revamping the roster with Edgardo Alfonso, Ray Durham, and Jose Cruz Jr.), and won 91 games in 2004 despite not putting any kind of push for Vlad Guerrero and trading Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser away for one-year of A.J. Pierzynski.

The dreams and memories of Giants baseball from 2002-2004 were absolutely great, and Giants fans thought Sabes could do no wrong. Sure, there were warning signs (the increasing age of the teams, Sabean not signing first round draft picks etc.) but it's safe to say that Giants fans couldn't see them. The wins and the competitiveness of the teams simply overshadowed all the bad and we at the time, as Giants fans, were fine with it.

2005-2008: "Cruel Summer" by Bananarama

After lucking out by winning 91 games in 2004, the Giants fell off a cliff in 2005, where they built a streak of four straight losing seasons. Injuries and lackluster play from free agents started to show the weaknesses in the Giants organization in terms of building for the future (e.g. the Giants' crappy farm system was now exposed to the world because we were having scrubs replace our injured veterans) and Sabean, who couldn't do no wrong for a while, was now exposed and rightfully criticized for his lack of a long-term plan.

As free agent after free agent continued to not pan out, Giants fans were constantly graced with mediocre play from big-name signings (Dave Roberts, Steve Finley, Ryan Klesko etc.) and prospects who were either a.) vastly overrated (Lance Niekro, Jason Ellison etc.) or b.) weren't meant to contribute at the Major League level (Brian Bocock).

For Giants fans, it was one "Cruel Summer" after the next from 2005 and 2008. Unfortunately, because of the clout Sabean built with then-owner Peter Magowan from 1997-2003, Sabes was always excused for the mess he built through bad, expensive signings and poor drafting.

August 2009-February 2010: "You Can't Count on Me" by Counting Crows

After the mess from 2005-2008, Sabes conceded that he couldn't just buy good teams, but he had to develop them through drafting and development. So, after Bonds left after the 2007 season, Sabean asked Giants fans for patience. He said he would not be spending big money on talent anymore, and that we would have to go through some growing pains as the talent he drafted and picked up worked to become "MLB-ready." He sold Giant fans on Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Tim Alderson as the cornerstones of the Giants' future.

Well, two of them worked out well, one looks to be a train wreck, one was traded away for an oft-injured, free-hacking second baseman, and the other two could be great, but one wonders if they will be given the proper chances to show what they can do at the MLB level.

And, to make matters worse, Sabean continues to block the "young talent" he harped about "sticking with" back in 2007. He signed Aubrey Huff, despite Huff having a negative WAR with Orioles and Tigers last season (The Tigers had an equally as pathetic offense as the Giants last season, just to put Huff's negative value in perspective). He signed Mark Derosa, despite Derosa being in his mid-30's and coming off a wrist injury. He signed Bengie Molina, though the Giants have a younger, better option in Posey.

As Giants fans, we thought we could count on him to progress the Giants' future along. That's why we put up with him getting that two-year extension.

San Francisco fans should have known better from Sabes. The Counting Crows would have.

November 2010 or November 2011: "Goodbye to You" by Scandal

I'm not saying that the Giants will do worse than last year. As a fan, I hope that the Giants continue to improve on their 88-win record from a year ago and make the playoffs. Personally, I think the Giants have what it takes. Sure, the Diamondbacks are better (though not as good as everybody thinks) and the Dodgers and Rockies are the teams to beat (though the Dodgers' starting pitching is very questionable in my mind). That being said, the Giants' Opening Day lineup in 2010 looks a lot better than it did in 2008 and 2009.

However, as a Giants fan, you just can't help but feel that this team doesn't have enough on paper. You feel that Sabean plugged holes with veterans, but didn't exactly upgrade the positions from a year ago. You feel that sooner or later, the horses that carried us in 2009 will break down in some way in 2010. Not completely break down of course, but regress to the point where they will be a lesser version of themselves in 2010.

Who will it be? I don't know. It could be Lincecum. It could be Cain. It could be Wilson. It could be Uribe. It could be Sandoval. It could be Affeldt. It could be Runzler. It could be Molina. It could be anyone. It could be more than one, too. And what makes it so much more terrifying is the fact that the Giants needed to get some guys as safety this off-season, just in case one or two (or even three, God forbid) of those "studs" from last year regress, and it just really didn't happen. I mean, Derosa and Huff aren't going to pick up the slack should the Panda struggle out of the gate. They'll be good complimentary players when the going is good, but when the going is tough? Well, I just can't see them making an impact.

To me, this off-season just reminded me of the 2008 Seattle Mariners. They made some pickups, but not enough to really compete and once the regular season started, it all just fell on them because they put too much faith in the wrong kinds of players (e.g. Richie Sexson, Eric Bedard, Brad Wilkerson, etc.)

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic and I hope to God as a Giants fan I'm wrong, but I just have a feeling, after this year or next year we'll be singing along with Patty Smyth "Goodbye to You" to Brian Sabean's box at AT&T Park.

The "Brian Sabean Watch": One similar-looking Giants off-season (only less money)

You know...it's hard to say exactly how I feel about Brian Sabean's performances as general manager for the San Francisco Giants this off-season. I didn't agree with him getting a two-year extension this off-season, but owner Bill Neukom gave him one anyway, simply because of the 88-74 season the Giants had in 2009. Granted, I do think Sabes deserved some credit for that season. Everybody expected the Giants to hover around .500, but they stayed in the playoff race until the last week of the season. That should be commended, no doubt. I am not one of those kinds of fans where "no playoffs = no success." Last season was very successful for the Giants, they just played in a division where there were two other playoff-caliber teams. If the Giants are in the NL Central, maybe they're in the playoffs instead of the Cardinals. Who knows.

Thus, while I didn't agree with Sabean coming back, I tolerated it just because he deserved a shot to show whether or not 2009 was a sign of progress or a fluke.

For some reason, I just get this bad lingering feeling 2009 could be a fluke.

I understand the deals Sabes made. I understand you can't just release Freddy Sanchez when you traded your second-best pitching prospect (Tim Alderson) for him at the Trade Deadline last July. I understand the Juan Uribe signing because he might need to take over at shortstop if Edgar Renteria flounders once again for a third-straight season, and you don't want to have another situation like 2008 where your only backup is a career Single-A player like Brian Bocock. I think Mark Derosa is a safe pickup because he can play multiple positions. I also like the fact that Sabes waited until the end of the off-season and scrapped guys Aubrey Huff and Bengie Molina off the bargain bin for one-year deals, when in the past, he would sign them early and for more money and years than they worth (e.g. Dave Roberts).

That being said, the Giants built success last year of their pitching and defense. So, you think, if your a general manager that needs to improve their offense from laughable to just mediocre, you would want to sign guys that wouldn't jeopardize the qualities that made your teams so successful a season ago.

Huff is a designated hitter. Derosa is going to be 35. Bengie is Bengie, only he's a year older and a year more out-of-shape.

The Giants may be on paper better on offense, but the defense without a doubt is going to dip, and that makes you wonder what the pitching staff is thinking. You think Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain feel comfortable taking the hill with Huff manning first base? You think Brian Wilson, who's already defensively deficient on the hill as it is, will feel even more comfortable with an aging defense that might not be able to make the plays they did in 2009?

In many ways, this off-season was just typical of every off-season the Giants have had under Sabean. A lot of big-names, a lot of promise, but in the end, usually not a lot of follow-through. The list of big-names who seemed to "tank" for the Giants is practically a mile long: Renteria, Roberts, Edgardo Alfonso, Mike Matheny, Michael Tucker, Jeffrey Hammonds, Ryan Klesko, Steve Finley etc., etc.

Grant from the McCovey Chronicles summed it all up in a great post about Sabean and this off-season: Sabean is a great developer of pitching talent and has made a solid knack in the past couple of years in terms of finding hiddeng gems to add to the bullpen, but is a lousy evaluator of offensive talent.

In many ways, that seems to be the case again this season. The Giants rotation can only get better with a young Madison Bumgarner in the number five spot in the rotation. The squad has two young, incredible arms in Dan Runzler and Waldis Joaquin that are ready to contribute to an already solid bullpen led by Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo. Sabean also spurned the common route that a lot of GMs take in terms of adding big-name arms to the bullpen even though they are at the end of their primes or in fact, past it.

Yet the guy is still clueless. I understand Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche didn't want to play in San Francisco, and I understand you can't do anything about that. However, really...Huff is an upgrade over Travis Ishikawa even though Huff struggled in a pitcher's park like Comerica last season? Molina is really that much better than Buster Posey? Sanchez is better than Orlando Hudson, who could go into "eff you" mode after the Dodgers spurned to re-sign him this off-season?

It's just the same old Dog and Pony show from Sabean. He didn't deserve his extension at the end of last season, and he didn't seem to do anything to show he was worth it at the end of this off-season.

Let's just hope Sabean and the Giants get away with it like they did last year. Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval can carry us to the playoffs, right?

Same Old Sabean, Same Old Team: Giants Sign Aubrey Huff

I guess I jinxed myself last night. For some reason, out of the blue, I came out of nowhere to defend Travis Ishikawa.

Call it a bad feeling, hunch, whatever. I just knew something was in store this coming week in terms of the first baseman position.

I expected it to be Adam LaRoche.

Instead, the Giants signed Aubrey Huff to what appears to be a one-year deal worth $2.5 million dollars.

Yes, the same Huff that has spent most of his career as a Designated Hitter. The same Huff that posted a .567 OPS and only two home runs in a small, second half stint after being traded from Baltimore to the Detroit Tigers (not to mention complemented their utter collapse to the Twins last season). The same Huff that has only played in one ballpark similar to AT&T Park (Comerica Park) and effectively stunk it up in his tenure there.

At this point, I apologize for what I said yesterday. I almost wish it was Adam LaRoche the Giants signed, even if it meant another year in terms of a contract and a few more million dollars.

At least, he would be a guy worthy of supplanting Ishikawa. At least LaRoche wouldn't be an embarrassment in the infield like Huff most likely will be next season when he'll be missing Edgar Renteria and Pablo Sandoval's ailing throws to first.

Seriously, I'm really just puzzled by this move. I understand it on paper. Huff has good stats (minus 2009) and satisfies a need (a left-handed power hitter). I understand it really was a good contract. It's only one year, it's only two and a half million, and if Huff stinks it up Ryan Klesko style, then Brian Sabean can pull the plug on him. That makes sense.

What I don't get is that the Giants seem to have made their success on pitching and defense last season, and they seem to have just thrown that in the wind simply because everybody kept harking "More Offense! More Offense!" He seemed to be following the right plan when he re-signed Freddy Sanchez, and let go of Ryan Garko. He seemed to make a good signing in Mark Derosa, a guy who can play multiple positions and really hold it down in left field, even if is in the mid-30's and is most likely on the downswing of his career. He made the right call in re-signing Juan Uribe, just in case Edgar Renteria falls off the face of the earth by May (which most likely will happen).

And then, this happens. Huff blows up everything the Giants worked for last year, all because Giants fans, bloggers, and management wanted "dingers" and "immediate run production."

I'm not saying Ishikawa is the second coming of Mo Vaughn. Heck, I don't even know if Ishikawa could reach up to JT Snow level in his career. But what I'm sick of hearing is how pathetic Giants minor league position players are. I'm sick of hearing people hark about how Kevin Frandsen never gets any chances, and then the same people bury Ishikawa when Ishikawa actually puts up similar, if not BETTER numbers than Frandsen in his tenure at Major League level.

Ishikawa may not turn out to be the next Carlos Pena like I imagine him to be. I'll give his naysayers that, just because players usually never live up to comparisons nine times out of ten. However, he's not the next Todd Linden. He's not the next Lance Niekro. Ishikawa is head and shoulders above those guys in my mind. Linden was a great Triple-A hitter, but never could make an adjustment, and Niekro was the benificiary of a surpisingly small stint when JT Snow was hurt. Ishikawa had a good full season as a rookie, and that was despite atrocious road numbers (two home runs, .162 average, .471 OPS), which is more a characteristic of lack of experience rather than his overall play. He can't do any worse than he did last year on the road, and if he can couple that with his solid home stats (seven home runs, .349 average, .935 OPS), he's going to improve. You just can't ignore that.

And yet, Giants fans and management continue to push this idea (and the statistics) out the window, continue to think to themselves that "a proven player" is better, even if that same player may never prove himself again. Seriously, if Sandoval did not have his coming out party like he did in 2009, these same people would have buried the Panda and pined for Jose Castillo again last year.

In my mind, I just don't know if the Giants can do any better next year. I seriously thought they could, I thought Sabean learned his lesson, and then he came out and signed Huff. At this point, I just don't think it's Sabean's fault anymore. In many ways, I believe there is this terrible, hypocritical wave of Giants fans who harp about certain things (don't trade Matt Cain, play Frandsen more, We hate Eugenio Velez) and then make completely contrary arguments (get rid of Jonathan Sanchez, Ishikawa stinks, Giants fans wanting power hitters regardless of the ballparks they played in during their careers).

(Granted, I'm guilty of this as well. I have made contrary arguments in my time here as well. I love Emmanuel Burriss too much. I flip flop on Velez all the time. I actually thought getting Jermaine Dye was a good idea. But it just seems to get worse and worse from fans who only care about RBIs and HRs and don't think you can be successful any other way. I like to think that I observe and care about other aspects of this Giants team.)

Do I hope Huff doesn't stink up the join in San Francisco? Of course. I am a Giants fan, and I want the team to win, regardless of how terrible a team they're set up to be. I'm just frustrated, that's all. I'm frustrated because I thought Giants fans were going to see a team going to be set up to be like the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, a team that took pride in its pitching and defense, and let the hitting come from less heralded guys within their system. Instead, Sabean has given us this: a team that emphasizes big names over potential and progress, just like before, as always. Nothing has changed with him, despite what Giants fans were hoping when owner Bill Neukom handed him that two-year deal this off-season

I'm going to say it here now: the progress we saw as a defense last year? Throw that out the window. The progress we saw with guys within the system finding success at the Major League level? Forget about it in 2010.

Next season is going to look a lot like those years from 2005-2008 where we had "star" names floundering in San Francisco because a.) they couldn't adjust to the ballpark and b.) they were on the downside of their careers. Next season is going to be like those years where it seemed the Giants had no plan, other than good starting pitching. Next season is going to be like those years when we watched Mark Sweeney, Steve Finley and Dave Roberts.

The only difference is they'll have different names and numbers on the back of their jerseys.

Uggla and Damon Are NOT The Answers to the Giants Playoff Hopes

Dan Uggla and Johnny Damon.

They do not make sense in Black and Orange, right?

After all, currently, the Giants have Freddy Sanchez at second base. In fact, he's implanted there, without compromise. The Giants traded their second-best pitching prospect for him last Trade Deadline, and they signed him to a two-year, six-million per year deal early this off-season, the first real deal GM Brian Sabean did after he was re-signed as general manager for the Giants.

Uggla is a second baseman. I can't see him as a type that can move anywhere else. He's doesn't have the range or fielding ability to play shortstop (though anyone at this point seems better than Edgar Renteria), and I can't seem him being an upgrade at third base over Pablo Sandoval (though everybody--except me of course--thinks moving him to first is the answer).

Sure, there is a lot to like about Uggla. He hits home runs (and in a pitcher's park like Dolphins Stadium mind you) and he does have a decent on-base percentage (.354 last year) despite his high strikeout numbers (150 whiffs last year). Those two positives of Uggla, though, are two things that nobody else in the Giants lineup can do except Pablo Sandoval, so it is easy to see why some Giants fans would be tempted by Sabean acquiring the Marlin.

But he doesn't fit on this Giants squad. He would be a guy without a position, and that is never good to have, especially when you have somebody who has played second base so regularly as Uggla has.

And yet, according to Jayson Stark, the Giants seem to have interest in acquiring the Marlins big-swinger.

Yikes.

And if that isn't enough, there seems to be some increasing opinion on the Web (on Giants blog El Lefty Malo) that Johnny Damon wouldn't be such a bad idea as the Giants left fielder.

I know Eugenio Velez probably isn't the answer for the Giants in left field (he was a product of a hot two weeks and that's it). I know that Andres Torres isn't a very attractive option either. I know Fred Lewis has burned so many bridges with his high strikeout numbers and bad fielding that Giants fans would riot and start the next San Francisco Fire if he started on Opening Day.

However, the fact of the matter is this: AT&T is NOT a home run hitter's park, and Yankees Stadium IS.

That should be enough for Sabean to steer away from Damon despite his gaudy run production numbers (24 home runs, 82 RBI).

If Damon is signed by the Giants for 2010, Giants faithful should be prepared to experience an "Edgar Renteria-esque" season from the former Yankees outfielder.

The Giants shouldn't stay completely pat this offseason. I agree that Nick Johnson would not be that bad of a signing, and I think the case is aptly made in this article.

However, Sabean should not be swinging for the fences with these two guys. They just reek of Renteria, Dave Roberts, Steve Finley and Ryan Klesko. I want the Giants to win next year, and I think with the right player(s), they are more than capable of doing so.

But anyone thinking that Damon or Uggla is going to be that missing piece for this San Francisco Giants squad has to be out of their minds.

(Unless of course, getting Uggla requires getting rid of Conor Gillaspie, which the McCovey Chronicles doesn't think is such a bad idea. You know what? I'm agreeing with them! Just by looking at his stats, maybe an Uggla for Gillaspie swap wouldn't be such a bad thing. Only that though. Nothing else. Like I said before, neither guy alone will take the Giants to the playoffs.)