Update to the Brett Pill OTF Report: Switch to the Middle Infield?

Obsessive Giants Compulsive just let me know about this development in a comment on the Brett Pill post I wrote earlier today. Basically, Pill has played in eight games this year at second base, and there is some speculation that he may make the move to the position on a more permanent basis. With Brandon Belt and Travis Ishikawa currently on the Fresno roster, it makes sense for both the Grizzlies and Pill.

In terms of how it benefits the Grizzlies? Well, Belt is their best hitter obviously, and the Grizzlies and Giants organization need him to play everyday. That being said, while it would be good to get him some experience in the outfield to make him more versatile when he eventually gets called up again this year (he's not staying in Fresno for long, folks), he still is the Giants' first baseman of the future. Furthermore, while Ishikawa may not have much upside in terms of contributing to the Major League roster (I think it's safe to say he's probably a career Major League backup at this point), he should be in the Grizzlies lineup everyday, and mixing him and Belt up between first base and the outfield is the best way to give both of these offensive threats at-bats.

As for Pill, well, if you have to choose between Belt, Ishikawa and Pill for the first base position, Pill is probably the odd man out. He just doesn't have the power upside that Belt and Ishikawa have. However, OGC made a great point about Pill moving to second base on a perhaps more permanent basis:

"...If Pill can be converted to also play 2B, that would increase his value on the bench, because his hitting is OK for a 2B, not so much for a guy who can only play 1B. He could be like an Uggla where you give up defense to get the offense at best, though more likely a nice bat off the bench who can play multiple positions."

I like that Uggla comparison. Not because I expect Pill to be the next Dan Uggla (Uggla showed more power, and Uggla struck out a heck of a lot more in the minors; he had a 20 percent strikeout rate in his five seasons in the minors), but because I think Pill's offense is enticing when you look at it his numbers through a second-baseman's lens. As a first baseman? Pill probably projects to have Daric Barton power without the Daric Barton plate patience. As a second baseman though? His ability to make contact and hit 10-16 home runs and rack in a lot of doubles, would make him an intriguing middle-infield option, not to mention one of the better offensive middle infielder prospects in the Giants system at this moment along with Charlie Culberson and Brandon Crawford. (I'm just talking currently though, for there are infield prospects in the Giants system who obviously have higher ceilings than Pill; he's just one of the few that's closest to being Major League-ready.)

Of course, his offense will have to make up for what he'll give up defensively. In eight games so far this year, he has been decent in terms of making the routine plays (only one error in 32 chances), but he hasn't shown an incredible range (3.88 RF/G). This may be him getting just used to the position, but at six-foot, four-inches and 201 pounds, one has to wonder if Pill is athletic enough to be an average second baseman defensively.

This sudden position change makes Pill's prospect status a little more interesting, but I'm still keeping him at No. 22. He could rise if he continues his offensive production (specifically the power numbers) and manages to be decent defensively. With the Giants experiencing a ton of problems in the infield with Miguel Tejada's ineffectiveness and Pablo Sandoval's injury, Pill might be an enticing option to Giants management if he can develop defensively at the second base position.

The interesting thing though is how Pill's status at second base will be affected with the return of Emmanuel Burriss and Ryan Rohlinger to Fresno (both utility infielders). While the Pill experiment is an interesting development to pay attention to (simply because you want to maximize his value as a player and prospect), it may end sooner than expected, simply because Burriss and Rohlinger are players who are expected to get at-bats with the Grizzlies. I'm curious to see what direction manager Steve Decker will take with Pill.

In my opinion, the Giants organization (Not to mention Pill's professional career) would probably benefit more from this experiment at second base than plugging Pill back at first. We know what to expect from Rohlinger and Burriss in the middle infield and in the lineup. You can't say the same thing with Pill. It could be a bust, sure. But then again, there could be some surprising upside with Pill's position switch, and that certainly wouldn't hurt the Giants in the near future (especially considering Pill is on the 40-man roster).

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 22, Brett Pill, 1B

On upside alone, I am very skeptical about Brett Pill. There a slew of prospects on this list I like more than Pill (even Chris Dominguez, whose high strikeout rates and low walk rates don't exactly comfort me at night) and with Brandon Belt pretty much the heir apparent at first, and Aubrey Huff the current solution at the Major League level, there just doesn't seem to be much room for Pill in the Giants organization.

That being said, Pill is still an interesting prospect because of his ability to make contact and his very good year in the Eastern League in 2009 with the Connecticut Defenders. Furthermore, he's off to a good start in Fresno this year, which makes his situation with the Giants even more intriguing (especially considering he's vying for playing time at first in Fresno with Belt and Travis Ishikawa, two first basemen who have Major League experience).

Pill was drafted by the Giants in the seventh round of the 2006 MLB draft after playing three years at college baseball powerhouse Cal State Fullerton. While Pill wasn't a prospect of major note in college (he was a 45th round pick out of high school by the Atlanta Braves), he still managed to have a solid college career, especially his final year with the Titans.

In 2001, he hit .328 with a .433 OBP and a .905 OPS. While he didn't flash much "big fly" ability (he only hit 15 home runs total in his three years with Fullerton), Pill earned a reputation as a good defensive first baseman, and did manage to be a good gap-to-gap hitter as he racked 23 doubles his final year (he totaled 42 over his career). So, even though the lack of home runs from a college first baseman scared off scouts a bit, his ability to make consistent contact (he only struck out 45 times and drew 39 walks his last year in Fullerton) and hit the gaps as a hitter helped him get drafted after he declared for the second time.

In the lower minors, nothing really stood out about Pill as a prospect. The big issue with him was the fact that he didn't flash much power for a first baseman in college, and that issue persisted in the Northwest League, Sally and even California League. He still managed to be a great gap hitter (he accumulated 47 doubles in Augusta in 2008), but his home run numbers were underwhelming. In three years between the Volcanoes, Green Jackets and Giants (the San Jose ones), Pill hit just 24 home runs in 1,347 plate appearances. The lackluster power numbers also hurt his advanced statline as well, as he never had a wOBA over .330 or a wRC+ (Adjusted runs created based on wOBA) over 97 (the average is 100) from 2006-2008.

After the 2008 season ended, Pill seemed to be a fringe prospect that looked to have a replacement-level career in the Majors at best. Here is what Baseball Evolution.com writer Richard Van Zandt said about Pill after his 2007 in the Sally:

"Widely regarded as the best defensive first baseman in the system, Pill led the SAL in 2007 with 47 doubles and ranked 6th in RBI with 91, clubbing 10 home runs.  Overall.  his bat has been less than lethal, as his career line of .259/.316/.398 indicates.  Still, the club has hopes the 6’4” Pill’s power numbers will blossom in time, turning doubles into home runs."

While it was nice to see Pill's defense noted, he pretty much was viewed by most analysts and scouts as a college-style hitter who played  a position where power and home runs were expected. Unfortunately for Pill, home run power did not come naturally for him. Did that automatically bury his chances to be a Major League player? No, but it didn't help and he didn't exactly show the plate approach (0.47 BB/K ratio average over his first three seasons in the minors) that made up for his lack of pop.

That all changed though in 2009 for Pill with the Defenders, as those doubles started to turn into home runs like Van Zandt mentioned in his piece.

In 139 games and 581 plate appearances, Pill hit 19 home runs, 37 doubles, scored 71 runs and drove in 109 RBI as the regular first baseman in Connecticut. What made this power surge (.828 OPS, .368 wOBA, 125 wRC+) even more remarkable was the fact that the Eastern League was a notorious pitcher's league with the weather environments and park (especially Connecticut's) often making things challenging for hitters. And yet, Pill not only overcame these factors, but he managed to have his best season in professional ball.

All this got Giants fans and management wondering: is Pill suddenly undergoing a late awakening with his batting stroke? Or are these offensive numbers a fluke?

Last year, while Pill didn't revert totally back to his pre-2009 form, he didn't exactly tear things up in the Pacific Coast League like he did in the Eastern League with Connecticut. Pill still managed to hit 16 home runs and produce an ISO of .158. However, his wOBA fell to .330 and he was under the 100 wRC+ average for the fourth time in five years (his wRC+ was 90 in 2010).

Were his numbers a dramatic regression? Not really. That being said, to succeed in a pitcher's league and in a tough hitter's environment such as the Eastern League, it would have been nice to see Pill take advantage of the conditions and hitter-friendly environments that the PCL offered in 2010, his first full year in Triple-A.

Pill is off to a good start this year (.328 average, .852 OPS, four home runs), but there are some concerns with his plate approach. He still has continued to be a good contact hitter (he had a 12.4 strikeout percentage last year and has a 10.4 percentage with the Grizzlies this year), but his declining walk rates (5.3 percent in 2010, 2.8 percent this year) don't really spring a whole lot of confidence in terms of his projection as a prospect.

While he could be a surprise at the Major League level (he certainly has shown more power potential the past couple of seasons than he did in the Northwest League, Sally and California League, which is good), it's hard to believe that Pill will make an impact with the Giants. There simply isn't much of a market for good defensive first basemen who lack consistent power and don't really draw walks.

If anything, he seems to be in the mold of a Travis Ishikawa or Lance Niekro (plus defenders who had fringe power numbers in the minors). That probably isn't a good sign for Pill's Major League future. Nonetheless, it'll be interesting to see if Pill can break that mold if/when he breaks into the Majors. (And considering Pill is better at making contact than those two, it is a possibility, if a remote one.)

Which Giants Players were Winners from Fall and Winter League?

First off, I want to get something straight. I know Winter and Fall League performances don't mean a whole lot when it comes to how a player will perform that following Spring. A good season in the Dominican Republic certainly doesn't make a player, but a bad season in Arizona Fall League certainly doesn't break a player either.

However, it is interesting nonetheless to see which players played well and which ones didn't in the "off-season" nonetheless. Like I said before, I'm not putting too much salt into these, but I'm not completely ignoring them as well. Good or bad play should be recognized regardless of the level or season.

That being said, before I go into the "Winners and Losers of Fall and Winter League 2009" I also want to clear two things:

1.) I will not analyze Pablo Sandoval or Nate Schierholtz.
2.) I will only be referring to standard statistics.

For the first issue, we know Panda and Nate are going to be starting next season. Randy Winn looks to be joining New York next season, and unless Schierholtz gets hurt, or John Bowker looks like the second coming of a young Ryan Klesko in Spring Training, Schierholtz will be starting in Right Field come Opening Day. The same goes for Pablo. He's the third baseman, whether he hits .400 or .200 in Venezuela Winter League. What I really want to look at are guys on the cusp of making or being released from the team, for I feel Winter and Fall league play is much more important for those guys than ones who pretty much have a guaranteed position on next season's squad.

As for issues number two, that simply comes from what I have available. I wish Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs had GB/FB rates for Dominican Winter League, but unfortunately, they have much bigger fish to fry than finding out what Geno Espineli's Pitch Value in PWL play was. So, for the most part, I'll be using standard statistics (batting average, OPS, WHIP, ERA, etc.) for this evaluation of these players in Fall and Winter League.

Okay, now that all that stuff is out of the way, onto the "Winners and Losers of Fall/Winter League 2009" for the San Francisco Giants! (I'm only doing the Giants by the way, so don't think I'm doing this for the Mariners, Rangers etc; I don't care how Justin Smoak did, even though I think Justin Smoak is a hell of player).

(Note: the post ran long, so I split it into two. Check out the "Losers" in the following post tomorrow).


Winners

Kevin Frandsen:
Frandsen is on the cusp of being jettisoned from San Francisco. All the signs point to it: the acquisition of Freddy Sanchez at the July Trade Deadline last season, the re-signing of Sanchez and Juan Uribe this off-season, Emmanuel Burriss coming back from injury. Frandsen, who had a solid campaign in 2007, hasn't seemed to recover from the 2008 Achilles injury that derailed him that season. In 2009, He was either buried in Fresno, or buried on the Giants' bench.

However, if Frandsen wanted to send a message to general manager Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy that he can be a solid option for the Giants in 2010, then his Winter League play may have been it. In PWL (Puerto Rican Winter League) play, he posted a .337 batting average, a .396 OBP, a .907 OPS, hit two homers and drove in 14 RBI. Frandsen was a force of nature in Puerto Rico, and finally started to show some of the promise that many Giants fans saw during that stretch run in 2007.

Now, the jury is still out whether or not Frandsen will still be wanted come Opening Day. With a team chock-full of infielders, Frandsen may not have a spot on this team in general and may just be the odd-man out. However, Frandsen needed to show Giants brass this off-season that he was still worth keeping on the roster, and fortunately for Frandsen, he proved it and then some.

Brandon Crawford:
You want to know why the Giants' shortstop of the future got an invite to Spring Training this year? I guarantee you his season in Arizona Fall League play was probably the culprit. Crawford absolutely tore it up for the Scottsdale team this fall, as evidenced by his .312 batting average, two home runs, 10 RBI, 12 BB, .396 OBP and .850 OPS. Crawford proved to be a real star this Fall, and also gave comfort to Giants fans that the Giants organization doesn't just produce Brian Bococks at shortstop in the farm system.

Granted, Crawford is still young (he just turned 23) and is probably a long shot to make the roster with Edgar Renteria still under contract for this season. However, after a stellar Fall in Scottsdale, Crawford should be a guy to watch this Spring Training. It definitely isn't impossible to think that he could be competing for the Giants' shortstop position as early as 2011 if he continues the progress he made in AFL play.

Brett Pill:
Pill not only earned an invitation to Spring Training this year, but he also earned a spot on the 40-man roster this year, and seems to be in a good position to compete for the starting position with Travis Ishikawa in 2011 after Aubrey Huff is gone. While many Giants fans questioned the release of Jesus Guzman, Pill certainly makes the decision easier to swallow. Pill put up solid numbers in Venezuela Winter League as he had a .303 batting average, a .385 OBP, and a .901 OPS. He also showed some power, as evidenced by his five home runs and 19 RBI.

Is Pill ready to contribute to the Giants next year? Probably not. He only had nine walks in 89 AB in VWL play, so he could use some time in the minors to work on his plate patience. That being said, Pill proved to be a surprise this Winter League season, and should not only be carefully watched this Spring Training, but in 2010 as well. If the Huff experiment falters, don't be surprised to see Pill giving Ishikawa a spell from time to time.

Santiago Casilla:
Casilla is coming off two bad seasons in Oakland, and thankfully, his Winter campaign in the Dominican Winter League gave Giants fans a little bit of hope that his acquisition may not be a waste of money. In 14.1 IP, Casilla has 13 strikeouts, a 2.51 ERA and a WHIP of 0.98. 0.98! That's dominating, regardless of the fact it is Winter League play.

Casilla definitely has the ability to strike guys out, and he also has decent control (he only walked five guys in DWL play). That being said, Casilla has tanked in Oakland the past couple of years, and at 30-years-old, he isn't exactly on the upswing in terms of his career either. Hopefully, his solid numbers in the Dominican Republic, as well as a change of scenery (though not much of a change, for he's just coming across the Bay) will rejuvenate Casilla in 2010. With Alex Hinshaw and Kevin Pucetas on thin ice in terms of making the roster, Casilla, with a strong Spring, could definitely be a contributor to the Giants bullpen come Opening Day.

Tony Pena Jr.:
I know I made fun of him. I know that he used to be a shortstop and now converted to a pitcher. Regardless of the fact that he was once dubbed the Kansas City Royals' "Shortstop of the Future," Pena may actually have a decent career as a relief pitcher.

In 18 IP in DWL play, Pena absolutely tore it up. He allowed only 13 hits and seven walks, and he also managed to strike out 13 in addition to posting a 1.11 WHIP. Those numbers are not only surprising, but comforting, especially considering most Giants fans don't think Pena will contribute at all considering he spent most of his career as a shortstop.

To look at the situation realistically though,Pena is definitely a little raw as a pitcher, and for him to start out in the bullpen for the Giants in 2010 is also a longshot. However, if Pena can put up solid numbers in Fresno to start the year, don't be surprised to see the former "bust" infielder get a chance to show what he can do as a pitcher at the Major League level. It would be like Rick Ankiel in St. Louis, only reverse.