I can't say I'm surprised that Florida Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria decided to fire manager Fredi Gonzalez. This is an owner who fired manager Joe Girardi, even though Girardi won Manager of the Year honors that same year. This is an owner who won two titles in Florida, only to dismantle the team completely the following year. This is an owner who campaigned for a new stadium when he was the owner of the Montreal Expos, didn't get what he wanted, and bailed on the Expos, hence killing baseball officially in Montreal.
Loria is a terrible owner. The only reason he isn't put up there with the Chris Cohans and Donald Sterlings (Sorry the NBA Draft is on my mind) of the world is because he actually got bailed out by two world championships. Sometimes even the bad get lucky, I guess.
That being said, Gonzalez's firing is a big deal and should be a big deal to Giants fans.
Gonzalez and Bochy both took over the Marlins and Giants, respectively, in the 2007 season. Both teams were under similar rebuilding circumstances. The Marlins were expected to compete in the NL East despite having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, while the Giants were looking to start afresh in the Post-Barry Bonds era.
Well, here is Gonzalez and Bochy's records as manager going into today:
Gonzalez: 276-279, .497 W-L % (in 555 games as manager of the Marlins).
Bochy: 270-287, .485 W-L % (in 557 games as manger of the Giants).
While neither Bochy nor Gonzalez went to playoffs the past three plus seasons as managers, Gonzalez did have a better record at the time of his firing and actually had two plus .500 seasons entering 2010 (unlike Bochy who had only one).
What has been Gonzalez's undoing? His clash with superstar Hanley Ramirez, in addition to his disagreements with owner Loria.
Gonzalez publicly chastised Ramirez after a booted ball, and promptly took him out after the inning was over. Ramirez lashed out, called out Gonzalez's Major League "experience" and before he knew it, Gonzalez was fighting a battle he couldn't possibly win. Even though the situation was apparently "mended" it was obvious that Gonzalez's time as manager was ticking in Florida.
To credit Bochy, he has a reputation of managing the clubhouse. After the days of Dusty Baker and Felipe Alou, where clubhouse tension was obvious and very public, Bochy has calmed all that down and has kept whatever issues they have in the clubhouse only.
Other than that though, Bochy's profile as Giants manager has paled in comparison to Gonzalez.
Gonzalez took the young players he was given by GM Larry Beinfest, and has given them every day playing opportunities. Chris Coghlan comes up? He gets everyday playing time. Mike Stanton comes up? He gets every day playing time. He has been pretty consistent playing young players in this Marlins organization, and the Marlins have competed, despite the lack of "experience" on their roster.
That is a far cry from Bochy's managing style. While GM Brian Sabean made the ill decision to re-sign Bengie Molina, Bochy has absolutely handled the Buster Posey situation poorly. Posey is prevented from playing catcher (which the Giants paid and drafted him to do, or else they wouldn't have given him a $6.25 million signing bonus, a Giants record) and now, it seems he may be doing platoon duty with Pablo Sandoval, who is having a down season himself. He has benched guys quickly either due to slow starts (John Bowker) or slumps (Nate Schierholtz), and has given countless opportunities to veterans (Molina, Aaron Rowand, etc.) who have not made the most of their chances.
The Giants and Marlins were supposed to be rebuilding. One manager did a good job of handling the rebuilding. The other has done a poor job, and the records prove the point further.
I don't think you have to guess very hard who I'm talking about.
Granted, I don't know who's really calling the shots. Is it Sabean telling Bochy to play the older, more paid vets? Or is it Bochy making the calls by himself? Either way, this is disappointing. After a second straight loss to Houston today, it is obvious this team is on shaky ground. Unfortunately, the Giants most likely are going to handle it the wrong way: by adding more veterans and dishing out more prospects by the trade deadline. By August, I wouldn't be surprised to see more veterans seeing the field, and more young, cheaper prospects either rotting on the bench or in Fresno.
I guarantee you Gonzalez would have handled this roster a lot differently than Bochy would, and I guarantee as well that the Giants would have been a whole lot more successful to boot. Sure, Gonzalez wouldn't have pleased Rowand or Molina as much as Bochy has, but the youngster would have played and got the opportunities they never would have had under the Giants' current manager.
It's too bad there's another year left on Bochy's contract. By 2012, it's almost certain that a manager like Gonzalez would be off the market.
Showing posts with label Bruce Bochy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bruce Bochy. Show all posts
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Buster Posey Up From Fresno! At-Bat Analysis Later Tonight
Being a fan who has resided in two different areas out of the Giants area for the past five years (four years in Spokane and one year so far in Los Angeles), I don't get to go to many games at AT&T Park. I long for the day when I finally am able to reside in the Bay Area and get season tickets or get enough money to purchase MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings annually. For the time being though, I have to deal with this reality of following the team from afar.
Well, in my first game of the 2010 season at AT&T Park, I will be able to see the player I have pined for all season: Buster Posey.
According to Andrew Baggarly's blog Extra Baggs, Posey is slated to start at first base tonight with Aubrey Huff moving to left. Now, I'm not so keen about this move on paper. First off, Bengie Molina is not a serviceable Major League catcher anymore (as I have noted in a post yesterday), so I don't know why the Giants cut ties with him or somehow work out a trade. I mean, Molina is poor defensively, has no power and kills the team with his lack of speed. Sure, Timmy is comfortable with him, but you know what? You're going to have to get used to Posey at some point. Why not start sooner than later?
Furthermore, I'm not sure about Huff in left. Huff has only played nine total games in his career in left field, so I wonder if he's going to be able to make the adjustment to the outfield after getting comfortable at first base this season (Huff's 0.5 UZR/150 has been a surprise, especially considering his career UZR at first base is minus-11.8). What makes the situation worse is the fact that Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker are going to be the odd men out. Because of Bruce Bochy's love for Aaron Rowand (and his .286 wOBA), Schierholtz is going to lose playing time because the Giants can't afford to bench Andres Torres, who has become the Giants' leadoff hitter. It's tough to stomach because Schierholtz has been so good defensively in his career and offensively he has stepped up nicely this year (his .340 wOBA and 0.77 BB/K ratio show that).
As for Bowker, he has struggled this year, no doubt (.276 wOBA). However, Bowker needs more playing time and has shown at time that he is on the cusp of turning it around should he be given more at-bats. With Posey up and Pat Burrell apparently on the move to the Bay Area, it almost seems like a given that Bowker is destined for Fresno real soon.
Overall, I'm happy Brian Sabean decided to suck it up and call up Posey. I hope soon enough the Giants management will come to their senses and either bench or designate Molina for assignment and put Posey behind the plate, which will keep Torres and Schierholtz in the outfield, and give the Giants their best lineup overall (both offensively and defensively).
It will definitely be interesting in the long-run. For the short term now, I'm just excited to see Posey play in person for the first time. Expect an at-bat analysis for Posey later tonight or early tomorrow after I come back home from AT&T Park.
Well, in my first game of the 2010 season at AT&T Park, I will be able to see the player I have pined for all season: Buster Posey.
According to Andrew Baggarly's blog Extra Baggs, Posey is slated to start at first base tonight with Aubrey Huff moving to left. Now, I'm not so keen about this move on paper. First off, Bengie Molina is not a serviceable Major League catcher anymore (as I have noted in a post yesterday), so I don't know why the Giants cut ties with him or somehow work out a trade. I mean, Molina is poor defensively, has no power and kills the team with his lack of speed. Sure, Timmy is comfortable with him, but you know what? You're going to have to get used to Posey at some point. Why not start sooner than later?
Furthermore, I'm not sure about Huff in left. Huff has only played nine total games in his career in left field, so I wonder if he's going to be able to make the adjustment to the outfield after getting comfortable at first base this season (Huff's 0.5 UZR/150 has been a surprise, especially considering his career UZR at first base is minus-11.8). What makes the situation worse is the fact that Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker are going to be the odd men out. Because of Bruce Bochy's love for Aaron Rowand (and his .286 wOBA), Schierholtz is going to lose playing time because the Giants can't afford to bench Andres Torres, who has become the Giants' leadoff hitter. It's tough to stomach because Schierholtz has been so good defensively in his career and offensively he has stepped up nicely this year (his .340 wOBA and 0.77 BB/K ratio show that).
As for Bowker, he has struggled this year, no doubt (.276 wOBA). However, Bowker needs more playing time and has shown at time that he is on the cusp of turning it around should he be given more at-bats. With Posey up and Pat Burrell apparently on the move to the Bay Area, it almost seems like a given that Bowker is destined for Fresno real soon.
Overall, I'm happy Brian Sabean decided to suck it up and call up Posey. I hope soon enough the Giants management will come to their senses and either bench or designate Molina for assignment and put Posey behind the plate, which will keep Torres and Schierholtz in the outfield, and give the Giants their best lineup overall (both offensively and defensively).
It will definitely be interesting in the long-run. For the short term now, I'm just excited to see Posey play in person for the first time. Expect an at-bat analysis for Posey later tonight or early tomorrow after I come back home from AT&T Park.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
The Writing Is On the Wall for Eugenio Velez
Two days after getting re-called to the Giants when Mark Derosa headed to the Disabled List, Eugenio Velez is heading back to Fresno after the Giants activated Freddy Sanchez for today's game against the Diamondbacks.
The move is both surprising and predictable. While Velez still has an option left for the Giants (which makes it easier for the Giants to send him up and down between Triple-A and the Majors), so did other guys like Ryan Rohlinger and Matt Downs. Some Giants fans figured with Velez's ability to play multiple positions, and the Giants' injury woes with Edgar Renteria and Derosa, Velez might be given a chance to redeem himself after a slow start to the 2010 season.
(Note: Here is an explanation of how Minor League options work on River Avenue Blues, a NY Yankees blog. Basically options work in years, and if you have an option year, you can be sent up and down as much as possible as long as you have that option year. There isn't a "set" number of options in a given year.)
That doesn't seem to be the case. After Velez got demoted, manager Bruce Bochy said this about Downs, who is currently hitting .269 with a home run and six RBI:
Two thoughts come to mind after hearing Bochy's quote:
1.) Bochy really likes to add "ey or ie" to guys' last names. (e.g. Whitey, Downsie, Rowsie...okay, I made the last one up.)
2.) Downs is the third guy Bochy has talked about moving to the outfield.
In the beginning of the year it was Travis Ishikawa. A few days ago it was Aubrey Huff. Now, it's Downs.
It makes you wonder: "Does Bochy even realize he still has Velez on the 40-man roster?"
My answer to that: yes, but he no longer has confidence in playing him anymore.
Guys with futures on Major League teams don't get called up and demoted again in less than two days. Guys with futures on the team don't regularly get demoted to Fresno after the first month of play (which has happened to Velez the past three seasons).
Thus, it's easy to determine Velez's future with the Giants: it is only a matter of time before he's playing for another Major or Minor League team.
It's tough for Velez. He hasn't exactly had it easy while being in San Francisco. In addition to Bochy's disenchantment with playing young players (which has affected Velez in addition to John Bowker), Velez simply has had a hard time finding a position in San Francisco.
Going into Spring Training in 2009, he was expected to be in the running for the second baseman job after Ray Durham was traded away to Milwaukee in 2008. Unfortunately, he never was up to the task offensively (career .306 wOBA) or defensively (minus-16.1 UZR/150 at second base for his career).
Velez provided the Giants some versatility when he began playing more regularly in the outfield in 2009. However, despite his above-average athleticism (he has a career 13.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), his lackluster instincts (he has a minus UZR in center and right) and big time blunders (I don't think I have to remind people about the Philadelphia game) seemed to bury any reputation that he can be a regular fixture in the Giants outfield.
And what has been the nail in the coffin for Velez's future in San Francisco? Two players: Andres Torres and Fred Lewis, who is now a Blue Jay.
Look at what Torres is doing for the Giants this year. Sure, he isn't young (32 years old to be exact), but he can hit (.397 wOBA going into today's game against Arizona), run (five stolen bases) and has tremendous defensive skills (he has a UZR/150 of 49.3 this year in the outfield).
As for Lewis? He has tore it up since moving to Toronto. A lot of fans claimed that Lewis wasn't needed because Velez was just as good an option in left field, if not better.
It's funny because the "Velez is better than Lewis" claim was a moot argument to begin with. Lewis is hitting .298 and has a wOBA of .349 entering today's game. Furthermore, look at what Scott from The Crazy Crabbers said in a post after Lewis was traded to Toronto:
Take a long gander at Velez's career slash line: .265, .306 and .401. That's worse than Lewis in every category. And yet, people at the time of Lewis' departure claimed Velez was a better option.
They seem to look foolish now, don't they?
Overall, maybe it was never meant to work out for Velez in San Francisco. After all, he was a Rule 5 draft pick from the Toronto Blue Jays in 2005, and those kinds of players usually aren't expected to have great Major League careers.
Nonetheless, Giants fans got their hopes up about Velez during Spring Training before the 2008 season when Jon Miller pointed him out as a player to watch at a team banquet in Scottsdale. Giants fans got their hopes about Velez when he went on that tear in late July and early August, which parlayed him into being the Giants' leadoff hitter for the remainder of the year. Giants fans got their hopes about Velez because he had cool nicknames like "The Pharaoh" or "Genie" (because he kind of looked like one to be frank).
Well...after this latest demotion for Velez, I think it's safe to say that Giants fans may have gotten their hopes up for nothing.
The move is both surprising and predictable. While Velez still has an option left for the Giants (which makes it easier for the Giants to send him up and down between Triple-A and the Majors), so did other guys like Ryan Rohlinger and Matt Downs. Some Giants fans figured with Velez's ability to play multiple positions, and the Giants' injury woes with Edgar Renteria and Derosa, Velez might be given a chance to redeem himself after a slow start to the 2010 season.
(Note: Here is an explanation of how Minor League options work on River Avenue Blues, a NY Yankees blog. Basically options work in years, and if you have an option year, you can be sent up and down as much as possible as long as you have that option year. There isn't a "set" number of options in a given year.)
That doesn't seem to be the case. After Velez got demoted, manager Bruce Bochy said this about Downs, who is currently hitting .269 with a home run and six RBI:
"We'll have Downsie take some ground balls at third," Bochy said. "He'll take some fly balls in the outfield. We'll move him around. The way he's swinging we'll use him as a right-handed pinch-hitter coming off the bench."
Two thoughts come to mind after hearing Bochy's quote:
1.) Bochy really likes to add "ey or ie" to guys' last names. (e.g. Whitey, Downsie, Rowsie...okay, I made the last one up.)
2.) Downs is the third guy Bochy has talked about moving to the outfield.
In the beginning of the year it was Travis Ishikawa. A few days ago it was Aubrey Huff. Now, it's Downs.
It makes you wonder: "Does Bochy even realize he still has Velez on the 40-man roster?"
My answer to that: yes, but he no longer has confidence in playing him anymore.
Guys with futures on Major League teams don't get called up and demoted again in less than two days. Guys with futures on the team don't regularly get demoted to Fresno after the first month of play (which has happened to Velez the past three seasons).
Thus, it's easy to determine Velez's future with the Giants: it is only a matter of time before he's playing for another Major or Minor League team.
It's tough for Velez. He hasn't exactly had it easy while being in San Francisco. In addition to Bochy's disenchantment with playing young players (which has affected Velez in addition to John Bowker), Velez simply has had a hard time finding a position in San Francisco.
Going into Spring Training in 2009, he was expected to be in the running for the second baseman job after Ray Durham was traded away to Milwaukee in 2008. Unfortunately, he never was up to the task offensively (career .306 wOBA) or defensively (minus-16.1 UZR/150 at second base for his career).
Velez provided the Giants some versatility when he began playing more regularly in the outfield in 2009. However, despite his above-average athleticism (he has a career 13.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), his lackluster instincts (he has a minus UZR in center and right) and big time blunders (I don't think I have to remind people about the Philadelphia game) seemed to bury any reputation that he can be a regular fixture in the Giants outfield.
And what has been the nail in the coffin for Velez's future in San Francisco? Two players: Andres Torres and Fred Lewis, who is now a Blue Jay.
Look at what Torres is doing for the Giants this year. Sure, he isn't young (32 years old to be exact), but he can hit (.397 wOBA going into today's game against Arizona), run (five stolen bases) and has tremendous defensive skills (he has a UZR/150 of 49.3 this year in the outfield).
As for Lewis? He has tore it up since moving to Toronto. A lot of fans claimed that Lewis wasn't needed because Velez was just as good an option in left field, if not better.
It's funny because the "Velez is better than Lewis" claim was a moot argument to begin with. Lewis is hitting .298 and has a wOBA of .349 entering today's game. Furthermore, look at what Scott from The Crazy Crabbers said in a post after Lewis was traded to Toronto:
"Let's do a quick comparison of some triple slash lines (AVG/OBP/SLG) to see where he comes down here:
Player A: .281/.339/.449
Player B: .228/.290/.365
Player C: .277/.355/.420
Player D: .265/.306/.401
Player E: .274/.343/.423
Player F: .284/.316/.415
Player G: .245/.292/.403
These are the career numbers of Fred Lewis and the other Giants outfielders. Would it surprise you if I told you that Lewis is player C and has arguably the second best triple slash line for his career.
Here are the identities of each:
Player A: Aaron Rowand
Player B: Andres Torres
Player C: Fred Lewis
Player D: Eugenio Velez
Player E: Mark DeRosa
Player F: Nate Schierholtz
Player G: John Bowker"
Take a long gander at Velez's career slash line: .265, .306 and .401. That's worse than Lewis in every category. And yet, people at the time of Lewis' departure claimed Velez was a better option.
They seem to look foolish now, don't they?
Overall, maybe it was never meant to work out for Velez in San Francisco. After all, he was a Rule 5 draft pick from the Toronto Blue Jays in 2005, and those kinds of players usually aren't expected to have great Major League careers.
Nonetheless, Giants fans got their hopes up about Velez during Spring Training before the 2008 season when Jon Miller pointed him out as a player to watch at a team banquet in Scottsdale. Giants fans got their hopes about Velez when he went on that tear in late July and early August, which parlayed him into being the Giants' leadoff hitter for the remainder of the year. Giants fans got their hopes about Velez because he had cool nicknames like "The Pharaoh" or "Genie" (because he kind of looked like one to be frank).
Well...after this latest demotion for Velez, I think it's safe to say that Giants fans may have gotten their hopes up for nothing.
Friday, May 14, 2010
Aaron Rowand No Longer A Viable Leadoff Option for the Giants
Aaron Rowand may have a good year and capitalize on that "Great every three years" cycle a lot of Giants fans have bought into. Baseball fans saw it in 2004 in Chicago (.388 wOBA) and in 2007 in Philadelphia (.382 wOBA). Maybe Giants fans will see something similar from Rowand in 2010.
He's off to a good, though not great start so far. While Rowand has hit four home runs this year in 95 plate appearances, his batting average dipped to .266 after tonight's 8-2 win over the Houston Astros and his OBP fell to .310.
Rowand may still have a breakout year for the Giants. That being said, I don't believe that "big" season will happen with him batting leadoff for this team.
First off, Rowand isn't and never was a leadoff hitter. The Giants panicked and gave him the spot because, after Spring Training ended, they had no other reasonable options at leadoff. As Giants fans, we could live with Rowand batting first simply because nobody else looked better in comparison. (Seriously, Edgar Renteria and his .307 OBP in 2009 was perhaps the second best option to bat leadoff on Opening Day).
However, this isn't Opening Day anymore. The Giants have just finished game 26 of the season. Is it the midway point? No, but it certainly has been long enough to tell what has been working and what hasn't this year for the Giants.
Rowand certainly fits in the latter category.
First off, leadoff hitters need to have one of two things in order to be effective:
1.) Tremendous speed or base stealing ability.
2.) A high propensity to draw walks or get on-base.
In terms of point number one, speed can make up for a hitter's poor plate discipline. Look at Willy Taveras, who has a career OBP of .320 and a career walk percentage of 5.1 percent. Why did he bat leadoff for every team he played for in his career until this season? Because Taveras stole over 30 bases from 2005-2008, and 25 bases in 2009 (and to put it in perspective, he had a .275 OBP for the Reds in 2009).
Rowand doesn't have that speed. Rowand has only 60 stolen bases in his career. Taveras had 68 stolen bases in 2008 ALONE.
So, if Rowand can't steal bases, he must be a good on-base guy, right? A "milk the pitcher and draw some walks" guy in the mold of Kosuke Fukudome?
Not exactly either.
Rowand has a career average walk percentage of 5.7 percent. This season, he has been below his career average, as evidenced by his 3.2 percent walk percentage so far in 2010. Now, while his strikeout rate is 17.8 percent, the first time it has been under 20 percent since 2007, his BB/K ratio is still far from impressive at 0.19. Rowand's BB/K ratios the past two years in San Francisco haven't been much better either, as it was 0.24 last year and 0.35 in 2008 (the league average is usually around 0.50).
Also, the big knock on Rowand has been his plate discipline, and this year he has showed more of the same. After swinging at 32.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone last season (seven points more than the league average), he has been even worse this year, swinging at 42.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone.
Therefore, Rowand does not fit either category in terms of being a successful leadoff hitter. I know manager Bruce Bochy likes Rowand, and wants Rowand to get comfortable at a spot in the lineup, but leadoff simply isn't it. The more Rowand bats leadoff for the Giants, the less chance they have of making the playoffs. I do not think any Giants fan can argue with that sentiment.
So who do the Giants bat at leadoff?
I suggest two scenarios.
1.) Andres Torres (the main one).
2.) Nate Schierholtz (the secondary one).
In terms of the first option, it makes the most sense. Torres, who has stepped up this year and proved that 2009 wasn't a fluke so far, fits both categories of a successful leadoff hitter. He has good speed (he has four stolen bases this year) and he has shown a strong ability to draw walks and get on base as well (he has a 14.8 percent walk percentage, a 1.00 BB/K ratio and a .398 OBP). Furthermore, unlike Rowand, Torres has proven to be patient in the batter's box. While Torres has cut down on his swings at the plate this year (42.8 percent swing percentage), he has swung at less pitches outside the strike zone (20.6 percent).
Torres not only deserves to be batting leadoff whenever he is in the lineup, but he deserves more playing time as well. While taking playing time away from Rowand will be a challenge, if unrealistic (simply because of his contract and clout with Bochy and Sabean), he certainly deserves to be playing more games in left field, especially if Mark Derosa's wrist doesn't fully recover this year.
However, while I agree that he deserves to be playing MORE, I do not think he should be the permanent left fielder for the remainder of the year. If anything, some kind of platoon needs to be worked out with John Bowker in left field. Bowker still has potential. His walk rate is the highest its been in his Major League career (9.2 percent) and his HR/FB rate (15.4 percent) shows that he has power potential. BowkerwOBA and 27.6 percent strikeout percentage don't help), but with Derosa hurt, this should be an opportunity for Giants management to give Bowker more at-bats.
The best scenario, in my mind, would be for some kind of 60-40 split (or at the very least, 70-30) between Torres and Bowker in terms of playing time in left field with Derosa out and likely heading to the DL. If they don't do it now, they might as well just send Bowker to Fresno because he isn't going to get any other opportunities considering how crowded this outfield is.
If Bowker does get the opportunity of playing every few days (and that's a big IF), then Schierholtz (who has earned the starting right field job after a great start) should bat leadoff for the Giants when Bowker is starting in left.
Schierholtz isn't a typical leadoff hitter. Unlike Rowand though, he has shown improvement this year in drawing walks and being more patient at the plate. His walk percentage is 7.4 percent this year and his BB/K ratio is 0.70 (it was 0.28 last year and 0.38 in 2008). Additionally, he has been more efficient at the plate, swinging at less pitches outside the strikezone (26 percent, a nine point drop from the previous season), while making better contact to boot (85.9 percent contact rate; an 8.2 percent improvement from 2009).
Surprisingly, Schierholtz has some speed as well. This year he has stolen three bases in four attempts. (He had only three stolen bases all of last year!) It wouldn't be surprising to see Schierholtz to steal 10-15 bases this year if given regular playing time. Is that Taveras base stealing ability? No, but it's efficient, and certainly better than what Rowand has to offer.
The Giants solution at leadoff? Drop Rowand in the lineup (six or seven would be a great fit), make Torres the leadoff when he's in the lineup, and when Bowker is replacing him in left field every few days or so, move Schierholtz up to the one spot.
It sounds easy enough, and there is a prime opportunity to instill this plan with Derosa going to be on the shelf.
The main question though is whether or not Bochy and Sabean will have the moxie to make the move. (Knowing Bochy and his history as Giants manager, my gut says no...unfortunately.)
He's off to a good, though not great start so far. While Rowand has hit four home runs this year in 95 plate appearances, his batting average dipped to .266 after tonight's 8-2 win over the Houston Astros and his OBP fell to .310.
Rowand may still have a breakout year for the Giants. That being said, I don't believe that "big" season will happen with him batting leadoff for this team.
First off, Rowand isn't and never was a leadoff hitter. The Giants panicked and gave him the spot because, after Spring Training ended, they had no other reasonable options at leadoff. As Giants fans, we could live with Rowand batting first simply because nobody else looked better in comparison. (Seriously, Edgar Renteria and his .307 OBP in 2009 was perhaps the second best option to bat leadoff on Opening Day).
However, this isn't Opening Day anymore. The Giants have just finished game 26 of the season. Is it the midway point? No, but it certainly has been long enough to tell what has been working and what hasn't this year for the Giants.
Rowand certainly fits in the latter category.
First off, leadoff hitters need to have one of two things in order to be effective:
1.) Tremendous speed or base stealing ability.
2.) A high propensity to draw walks or get on-base.
In terms of point number one, speed can make up for a hitter's poor plate discipline. Look at Willy Taveras, who has a career OBP of .320 and a career walk percentage of 5.1 percent. Why did he bat leadoff for every team he played for in his career until this season? Because Taveras stole over 30 bases from 2005-2008, and 25 bases in 2009 (and to put it in perspective, he had a .275 OBP for the Reds in 2009).
Rowand doesn't have that speed. Rowand has only 60 stolen bases in his career. Taveras had 68 stolen bases in 2008 ALONE.
So, if Rowand can't steal bases, he must be a good on-base guy, right? A "milk the pitcher and draw some walks" guy in the mold of Kosuke Fukudome?
Not exactly either.
Rowand has a career average walk percentage of 5.7 percent. This season, he has been below his career average, as evidenced by his 3.2 percent walk percentage so far in 2010. Now, while his strikeout rate is 17.8 percent, the first time it has been under 20 percent since 2007, his BB/K ratio is still far from impressive at 0.19. Rowand's BB/K ratios the past two years in San Francisco haven't been much better either, as it was 0.24 last year and 0.35 in 2008 (the league average is usually around 0.50).
Also, the big knock on Rowand has been his plate discipline, and this year he has showed more of the same. After swinging at 32.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone last season (seven points more than the league average), he has been even worse this year, swinging at 42.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone.
Therefore, Rowand does not fit either category in terms of being a successful leadoff hitter. I know manager Bruce Bochy likes Rowand, and wants Rowand to get comfortable at a spot in the lineup, but leadoff simply isn't it. The more Rowand bats leadoff for the Giants, the less chance they have of making the playoffs. I do not think any Giants fan can argue with that sentiment.
So who do the Giants bat at leadoff?
I suggest two scenarios.
1.) Andres Torres (the main one).
2.) Nate Schierholtz (the secondary one).
In terms of the first option, it makes the most sense. Torres, who has stepped up this year and proved that 2009 wasn't a fluke so far, fits both categories of a successful leadoff hitter. He has good speed (he has four stolen bases this year) and he has shown a strong ability to draw walks and get on base as well (he has a 14.8 percent walk percentage, a 1.00 BB/K ratio and a .398 OBP). Furthermore, unlike Rowand, Torres has proven to be patient in the batter's box. While Torres has cut down on his swings at the plate this year (42.8 percent swing percentage), he has swung at less pitches outside the strike zone (20.6 percent).
Torres not only deserves to be batting leadoff whenever he is in the lineup, but he deserves more playing time as well. While taking playing time away from Rowand will be a challenge, if unrealistic (simply because of his contract and clout with Bochy and Sabean), he certainly deserves to be playing more games in left field, especially if Mark Derosa's wrist doesn't fully recover this year.
However, while I agree that he deserves to be playing MORE, I do not think he should be the permanent left fielder for the remainder of the year. If anything, some kind of platoon needs to be worked out with John Bowker in left field. Bowker still has potential. His walk rate is the highest its been in his Major League career (9.2 percent) and his HR/FB rate (15.4 percent) shows that he has power potential. BowkerwOBA and 27.6 percent strikeout percentage don't help), but with Derosa hurt, this should be an opportunity for Giants management to give Bowker more at-bats.
The best scenario, in my mind, would be for some kind of 60-40 split (or at the very least, 70-30) between Torres and Bowker in terms of playing time in left field with Derosa out and likely heading to the DL. If they don't do it now, they might as well just send Bowker to Fresno because he isn't going to get any other opportunities considering how crowded this outfield is.
If Bowker does get the opportunity of playing every few days (and that's a big IF), then Schierholtz (who has earned the starting right field job after a great start) should bat leadoff for the Giants when Bowker is starting in left.
Schierholtz isn't a typical leadoff hitter. Unlike Rowand though, he has shown improvement this year in drawing walks and being more patient at the plate. His walk percentage is 7.4 percent this year and his BB/K ratio is 0.70 (it was 0.28 last year and 0.38 in 2008). Additionally, he has been more efficient at the plate, swinging at less pitches outside the strikezone (26 percent, a nine point drop from the previous season), while making better contact to boot (85.9 percent contact rate; an 8.2 percent improvement from 2009).
Surprisingly, Schierholtz has some speed as well. This year he has stolen three bases in four attempts. (He had only three stolen bases all of last year!) It wouldn't be surprising to see Schierholtz to steal 10-15 bases this year if given regular playing time. Is that Taveras base stealing ability? No, but it's efficient, and certainly better than what Rowand has to offer.
The Giants solution at leadoff? Drop Rowand in the lineup (six or seven would be a great fit), make Torres the leadoff when he's in the lineup, and when Bowker is replacing him in left field every few days or so, move Schierholtz up to the one spot.
It sounds easy enough, and there is a prime opportunity to instill this plan with Derosa going to be on the shelf.
The main question though is whether or not Bochy and Sabean will have the moxie to make the move. (Knowing Bochy and his history as Giants manager, my gut says no...unfortunately.)
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Molina, Whiteside or Posey: What Course Do the Giants Take?
It was supposed to be the Buster Posey era in San Francisco in 2010. The highly-touted draft pick from Florida State that signed the largest draft bonus in club history was supposed to be taking his position behind the plate on Opening Day this year, working with arguably one of the best pitching staffs in the Major Leagues, and helping the Giants in their quest to make the playoffs for the first time since 2003.
Well, the pitching staff is still doing well (at least the starting pitching anyways), and the Giants are still in the hunt in the NL West (they enter a three game series against the first-place San Diego Padres today), but Posey is in Fresno, playing in ballparks all across the Pacific Coast League rather than the National League.
What happened?
You could contribute a lot of things really. Bengie Molina overestimating his value on the market (he turned down a two-year deal from the Mets because he wanted more money, only the Mets pulled the deal on him at the last minute and decided to go with Rod Barajas instead). Bruce Bochy's undying love for "veterans." Brian Sabean second-guessing himself.
Whatever the specific (or combination of) reason(s), the fact remains this: Molina and Eli Whiteside are in the Majors, and Posey is not and it's a shame.
Why is it a shame? Look at Posey's stats. He's proven so far in 2010 that he's too good for the PCL. In 30 games, Posey is hitting .345 with five home runs, 21 RBI and has an OPS of .994. Furthermore, it's not just his offense that has been impressive either. Posey has a caught stealing rate of 50 percent so far this year, and the Fresno Grizzlies pitching staff and team has flourished. The Grizzlies have the seventh-best team ERA in the PCL, and the Grizzlies are currently 20-11, the best record in the PCL.
Posey is ready for the Major Leagues. All he needs is the opportunity.
And that is the problem. There isn't one for him right now.
First off, Molina is doing well. He is hitting .333, has an OPS of .859 and a wOBA of .376. What has been most impressive about Molina has been his improved approach at the plate. After posting BB/K ratios of 0.28, 0.50 (actually pretty good for him) and 0.19 the last three years as a Giant, his BB/K ratio sits at 0.88 currently. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but it's a promising number, especially considering that Molina drawing a walk last year was about as rare as a good Tori Spelling show/movie/project post "90210".
What has been so key in Molina's approach? Swinging less and swinging less outside the strike zone. Last year, Molina swung at 59.5 percent of pitches and 43.9 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. This season? He has only swung 44.7 percent of the time and has only swung at 30.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone this year. The more patient approach has paid off, as he has made better contact at the plate (he has an 88.4 percent contact rate this year in comparison to an 81.4 percent contract rate last year) and has gotten on base more (.402 OBP).
Molina though, despite his solid start, isn't perfect. Bochy has inserted him back in the lineup in cleanup hole, but he may be less suited for that role this season. While he has hit more line drives this year (20.4 percent), his HR/FB ratio is dramatically down at 5.3 percent. The lowest it has been as a Giant was in 2008, when it was 6.8 percent. Granted, Molina could improve that ratio and hit more home runs (since he is still hitting the ball in the air over 50 percent of the time), but at his age, that seems less likely, and thus, he seems less qualified to be the Giants' number four hitter in 2010.
Molina isn't the only blockade for Posey, however. Whiteside surprisingly has gotten off to a good start as well, which gives Sabean and Bochy even more of an excuse to keep Posey in Fresno. Whiteside is hitting .333 with two home runs in 35 plate appearances and has an OPS of 1.061 and a wOBA of .453. Additionally, Whiteside has a great reputation working with the Giants pitching staff, especially Jonathan Sanchez, who has had gotten off to very solid start in 2010.
Unlike Molina though, Whiteside's other numbers are far less impressive, and he seems to be more of a fluke this season than anything. His BB/K ratio in 35 plate appearances is 0.29. While that is an improvement from his BB/K ratio last season (when it was 0.17), it is still far from league average (which is 0.51 this year). Sure, Whiteside should be commended for his plate approach (he has only swung at 18.1 percent of pitches outside the strikezone this season), but he simply doesn't draw enough walks (5.7 percent this year, and ZiPS projects that he'll end up with a walk rate of 4.5 percent) and doesn't make good enough contact at the plate (74.5 percent contact rate) to merit regular playing time.
So, the Giants have three solid catcher who are all performing well. What should they do?
I know it sounds crazy, but the Giants seriously should think about shopping Molina. Already, he seems to be restless in San Francisco after not getting a better deal this off-season, and he seems to be pulling a "Brett Favre" (e.g. threatening retirement) by remarking that he is not keen on splitting time with Posey as well. If he is putting up solid numbers still by June and July, he would be a very valuable asset to a team like Boston or Seattle, a team that seriously needs a catcher. That way, the Giants not only get to promote Posey and give him his deserved shot, but they could get something of value in return. Molina may not generate as much value as in years past, but he is still a solid commodity that could earn one or two lower-tier prospects in return (which would be refreshing to see considering its the Giants always GIVING AWAY prospects during this season).
As for Whiteside? Keep him on as long as he's doing well, and then either a.) have him backup Posey when/if Molina is gone or b.) cut ties with him altogether. Seriously, I know Whiteside is a great story, but like I said before, history shows that he isn't a Major League catcher (and many people are in line with this thought as well).
This is all theory of course, but knowing Sabean and his "thoughts" on Posey and Triple-A, I doubt all this will happen. It's more likely to see a sixth season of "The Wire" than Molina traded away and Whiteside released to make room for Posey.
Giants Baseball: Where Blocking and Jettisoning Promising Players Happens!
Well, the pitching staff is still doing well (at least the starting pitching anyways), and the Giants are still in the hunt in the NL West (they enter a three game series against the first-place San Diego Padres today), but Posey is in Fresno, playing in ballparks all across the Pacific Coast League rather than the National League.
What happened?
You could contribute a lot of things really. Bengie Molina overestimating his value on the market (he turned down a two-year deal from the Mets because he wanted more money, only the Mets pulled the deal on him at the last minute and decided to go with Rod Barajas instead). Bruce Bochy's undying love for "veterans." Brian Sabean second-guessing himself.
Whatever the specific (or combination of) reason(s), the fact remains this: Molina and Eli Whiteside are in the Majors, and Posey is not and it's a shame.
Why is it a shame? Look at Posey's stats. He's proven so far in 2010 that he's too good for the PCL. In 30 games, Posey is hitting .345 with five home runs, 21 RBI and has an OPS of .994. Furthermore, it's not just his offense that has been impressive either. Posey has a caught stealing rate of 50 percent so far this year, and the Fresno Grizzlies pitching staff and team has flourished. The Grizzlies have the seventh-best team ERA in the PCL, and the Grizzlies are currently 20-11, the best record in the PCL.
Posey is ready for the Major Leagues. All he needs is the opportunity.
And that is the problem. There isn't one for him right now.
First off, Molina is doing well. He is hitting .333, has an OPS of .859 and a wOBA of .376. What has been most impressive about Molina has been his improved approach at the plate. After posting BB/K ratios of 0.28, 0.50 (actually pretty good for him) and 0.19 the last three years as a Giant, his BB/K ratio sits at 0.88 currently. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but it's a promising number, especially considering that Molina drawing a walk last year was about as rare as a good Tori Spelling show/movie/project post "90210".
What has been so key in Molina's approach? Swinging less and swinging less outside the strike zone. Last year, Molina swung at 59.5 percent of pitches and 43.9 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. This season? He has only swung 44.7 percent of the time and has only swung at 30.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone this year. The more patient approach has paid off, as he has made better contact at the plate (he has an 88.4 percent contact rate this year in comparison to an 81.4 percent contract rate last year) and has gotten on base more (.402 OBP).
Molina though, despite his solid start, isn't perfect. Bochy has inserted him back in the lineup in cleanup hole, but he may be less suited for that role this season. While he has hit more line drives this year (20.4 percent), his HR/FB ratio is dramatically down at 5.3 percent. The lowest it has been as a Giant was in 2008, when it was 6.8 percent. Granted, Molina could improve that ratio and hit more home runs (since he is still hitting the ball in the air over 50 percent of the time), but at his age, that seems less likely, and thus, he seems less qualified to be the Giants' number four hitter in 2010.
Molina isn't the only blockade for Posey, however. Whiteside surprisingly has gotten off to a good start as well, which gives Sabean and Bochy even more of an excuse to keep Posey in Fresno. Whiteside is hitting .333 with two home runs in 35 plate appearances and has an OPS of 1.061 and a wOBA of .453. Additionally, Whiteside has a great reputation working with the Giants pitching staff, especially Jonathan Sanchez, who has had gotten off to very solid start in 2010.
Unlike Molina though, Whiteside's other numbers are far less impressive, and he seems to be more of a fluke this season than anything. His BB/K ratio in 35 plate appearances is 0.29. While that is an improvement from his BB/K ratio last season (when it was 0.17), it is still far from league average (which is 0.51 this year). Sure, Whiteside should be commended for his plate approach (he has only swung at 18.1 percent of pitches outside the strikezone this season), but he simply doesn't draw enough walks (5.7 percent this year, and ZiPS projects that he'll end up with a walk rate of 4.5 percent) and doesn't make good enough contact at the plate (74.5 percent contact rate) to merit regular playing time.
So, the Giants have three solid catcher who are all performing well. What should they do?
I know it sounds crazy, but the Giants seriously should think about shopping Molina. Already, he seems to be restless in San Francisco after not getting a better deal this off-season, and he seems to be pulling a "Brett Favre" (e.g. threatening retirement) by remarking that he is not keen on splitting time with Posey as well. If he is putting up solid numbers still by June and July, he would be a very valuable asset to a team like Boston or Seattle, a team that seriously needs a catcher. That way, the Giants not only get to promote Posey and give him his deserved shot, but they could get something of value in return. Molina may not generate as much value as in years past, but he is still a solid commodity that could earn one or two lower-tier prospects in return (which would be refreshing to see considering its the Giants always GIVING AWAY prospects during this season).
As for Whiteside? Keep him on as long as he's doing well, and then either a.) have him backup Posey when/if Molina is gone or b.) cut ties with him altogether. Seriously, I know Whiteside is a great story, but like I said before, history shows that he isn't a Major League catcher (and many people are in line with this thought as well).
This is all theory of course, but knowing Sabean and his "thoughts" on Posey and Triple-A, I doubt all this will happen. It's more likely to see a sixth season of "The Wire" than Molina traded away and Whiteside released to make room for Posey.
Giants Baseball: Where Blocking and Jettisoning Promising Players Happens!
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Does Joe Torre and the Dodgers Have Bruce Bochy and the Giants' Number?
So, the Giants lost 10-8 last night to the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. It wasn't close, though the score showed that it was a two-run game. Todd Wellemeyer got shellacked, Edgar Renteria has continued his plummet at the plate, Vicente Padilla looked like a legitimate No.1 starter (which he isn't), and Andre Ethier resembled a first-ballet Hall of Famer.
Add that with Aaron Rowand getting plunked in the head, and it was safe to say that it was a rather forgettable night for the Giants.
Yet, despite it being just one of many games in the 2010 season between the Giants and Dodgers (that's how I'm coping with it anyways), I found out something very interesting about yesterday's loss against the Dodgers.
The Giants lost the series opener to the Dodgers for the fourth straight season. (The last time the Giants beat the Dodgers in their series opener was in 2006, when they beat LA at Chavez Ravine 2-1, thanks to eight innings of five-hit ball by Jamey Wright.)
Who has been the manager in that time span? None other than Bruce Bochy. (The manager in 2006 was Felipe Alou.)
Now, the series opener, in the grand scheme of things, is inconsequential. It's just one regular season game, and a season isn't made or broken by a single game.
However, when you look at the overall numbers against the Dodgers in Bochy's tenure, they don't look pretty.
The Giants under Bochy are 24-31 against the Blue Boys from Los Angeles and have been outscored by 67 runs against the Dodgers in this time span (Giants have scored 206 runs; the Dodgers have scored 273).
The most glaring number, however? In two seasons, manager Joe Torre has two NL West Division titles. Bruce Bochy? He just had his first winning season as Giants manager in 2009 (though he has a very good chance to make it two winning seasons in a row this year).
When you look at it on paper, it's pretty easy to come to this conclusion: Bochy can't manage the team against the Dodgers, Torre has the Giants' number, and managing partner Bill Neukom needs to find somebody who can beat Torre and the Dodgers.
That being said, you have to take that statement with a grain of salt, and cut Bochy some slack in some areas:
1.) Bochy Inherited A Bad Team, while Torre Inherited A Solid One
This is pretty obvious. Talent-wise, there is no comparison. The Dodgers have had superior talent in comparison to the Giants the past three seasons (at least offensively; the tide has changed since 2009 in terms of pitching talent). Torre just happened to be a decent manager, something you couldn't quite say of his predecessor Grady Little. With a guy they could somewhat respect on the bench, the Dodgers finally broke out like everybody envisioned.
As for the Giants, Felipe Alou wasn't that bad of a manager, but he wasn't that great either. That being said, the lineups in the Alou era were far more talented than anything Bochy has had to deal with. Bochy can make the lineup sure, but he doesn't acquire the players and he can't bat for them.
2.) Bochy Is Brian Sabean's Guy
Bruce Bochy was hired by Brian Sabean to replace Alou in 2007. When Sabean was up for contract renewal, it was assumed that Sabean would re-hire Bochy despite some sentiment out there that the Giants should head in a different direction when it came to the manager. When Sabes' was re-signed, so was Bochy almost immediately afterward.
Bochy and Sabean are quite the pair, and thus, Giants fans need to keep in context that Bochy's decisions are also, in many ways, Sabean's as well. Sabean is supplying him with the players and Sabean is trading away the ones he doesn't want to play. Sabean has an agenda with this Giants team, and Bochy carries it out without much complaint.
Thus, to say the Giants' ineffectiveness in the Bochy-era is completely on Bochy is unfair. If anything, it has been more on Sabean and the roster he has assembled under Bochy.
Granted, this could be a different year for Bochy. The Giants have a little bit more offense than in years past under Bochy (a little bit, not a lot) and the pitching staff looks to be stellar (far more stellar than the Dodgers, who's bullpen looks ready to fall off the face of the earth any second).
Unfortunately, as of this moment, the Dodgers have Bochy's number and there is a possibility that it could get worse, which won't help Bochy's reputation, which is already hot and cold with a lot of the Giants faithful.
Just remember though, while Bochy may not be the best manager for this current Giants organization (they need someone who can play younger guys and give them extended chances; then again, the GM has to do that too), he isn't solely at fault here. Sure, the record may not be great against Torre's Dodgers, but it's not like he's single-handedly losing games out there for the Giants.
When you look at the managerial record on baseball reference, don't look at it like "Bruce Bochy vs. Joe Torre." Instead, look at it like "Bochy-Sabean vs. Torre-Ned Colletti (the Dodgers GM)."
The losing record in the past three seasons against LA will make a lot more sense.
Add that with Aaron Rowand getting plunked in the head, and it was safe to say that it was a rather forgettable night for the Giants.
Yet, despite it being just one of many games in the 2010 season between the Giants and Dodgers (that's how I'm coping with it anyways), I found out something very interesting about yesterday's loss against the Dodgers.
The Giants lost the series opener to the Dodgers for the fourth straight season. (The last time the Giants beat the Dodgers in their series opener was in 2006, when they beat LA at Chavez Ravine 2-1, thanks to eight innings of five-hit ball by Jamey Wright.)
Who has been the manager in that time span? None other than Bruce Bochy. (The manager in 2006 was Felipe Alou.)
Now, the series opener, in the grand scheme of things, is inconsequential. It's just one regular season game, and a season isn't made or broken by a single game.
However, when you look at the overall numbers against the Dodgers in Bochy's tenure, they don't look pretty.
The Giants under Bochy are 24-31 against the Blue Boys from Los Angeles and have been outscored by 67 runs against the Dodgers in this time span (Giants have scored 206 runs; the Dodgers have scored 273).
The most glaring number, however? In two seasons, manager Joe Torre has two NL West Division titles. Bruce Bochy? He just had his first winning season as Giants manager in 2009 (though he has a very good chance to make it two winning seasons in a row this year).
When you look at it on paper, it's pretty easy to come to this conclusion: Bochy can't manage the team against the Dodgers, Torre has the Giants' number, and managing partner Bill Neukom needs to find somebody who can beat Torre and the Dodgers.
That being said, you have to take that statement with a grain of salt, and cut Bochy some slack in some areas:
1.) Bochy Inherited A Bad Team, while Torre Inherited A Solid One
This is pretty obvious. Talent-wise, there is no comparison. The Dodgers have had superior talent in comparison to the Giants the past three seasons (at least offensively; the tide has changed since 2009 in terms of pitching talent). Torre just happened to be a decent manager, something you couldn't quite say of his predecessor Grady Little. With a guy they could somewhat respect on the bench, the Dodgers finally broke out like everybody envisioned.
As for the Giants, Felipe Alou wasn't that bad of a manager, but he wasn't that great either. That being said, the lineups in the Alou era were far more talented than anything Bochy has had to deal with. Bochy can make the lineup sure, but he doesn't acquire the players and he can't bat for them.
2.) Bochy Is Brian Sabean's Guy
Bruce Bochy was hired by Brian Sabean to replace Alou in 2007. When Sabean was up for contract renewal, it was assumed that Sabean would re-hire Bochy despite some sentiment out there that the Giants should head in a different direction when it came to the manager. When Sabes' was re-signed, so was Bochy almost immediately afterward.
Bochy and Sabean are quite the pair, and thus, Giants fans need to keep in context that Bochy's decisions are also, in many ways, Sabean's as well. Sabean is supplying him with the players and Sabean is trading away the ones he doesn't want to play. Sabean has an agenda with this Giants team, and Bochy carries it out without much complaint.
Thus, to say the Giants' ineffectiveness in the Bochy-era is completely on Bochy is unfair. If anything, it has been more on Sabean and the roster he has assembled under Bochy.
Granted, this could be a different year for Bochy. The Giants have a little bit more offense than in years past under Bochy (a little bit, not a lot) and the pitching staff looks to be stellar (far more stellar than the Dodgers, who's bullpen looks ready to fall off the face of the earth any second).
Unfortunately, as of this moment, the Dodgers have Bochy's number and there is a possibility that it could get worse, which won't help Bochy's reputation, which is already hot and cold with a lot of the Giants faithful.
Just remember though, while Bochy may not be the best manager for this current Giants organization (they need someone who can play younger guys and give them extended chances; then again, the GM has to do that too), he isn't solely at fault here. Sure, the record may not be great against Torre's Dodgers, but it's not like he's single-handedly losing games out there for the Giants.
When you look at the managerial record on baseball reference, don't look at it like "Bruce Bochy vs. Joe Torre." Instead, look at it like "Bochy-Sabean vs. Torre-Ned Colletti (the Dodgers GM)."
The losing record in the past three seasons against LA will make a lot more sense.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Sabean and Bochy: They're back! (Unfortunately...But Neukom did it right)
It's official. Brian Sabean will be back as general manager and Bruce Bochy will return as manager for the San Francisco Giants. I hated it when I first heard it, wished against it with all my heart, but unfortunately, they're back and I have to live with it, despite my frustration with the pair these past few years (though I don't feel I am alone in my dismay).
However, there is a silver lining in this deal. The two-year contracts. Kudos Bill Neukom. Thank freaking God the Giants have an owner who knows what the hell he is doing.
Now, I know you're asking, "What the hell is so special? He re-signed a pair of aging, old-school (in a bad way) morons. How did Neukom handle this the right way?"
The two-year extensions are huge in my mind because it puts pressure on Sabean and Bochy to produce next year. Anything beyond two years and the Giants would be screwed. If the Giants tanked, finished in last place next year in the National League West, and Sabean and Bochy had signed three or more years extensions at this time, Neukom couldn't afford to fire the pair. You can't fire guys and eat contract money in this economy. It's impossible. You want to know why Omar Minaya has a job? Because he has a humongous contract and the Mets can't afford to take his salary in addition to the salary they have to pay to a new GM.
And this is a Mets organization that ate a humongous amount of money (including the cash from Phillips' asinine acquisitions) to fire Steve Philips and hire Omar Minaya about five years ago.
Yet the two year structure is great for this organization because if the Giants falter next year, they can afford to fire Bochy and Sabean because it won't be that bad absorbing just one more year of salary. One year is nothing. The freaking New York Knicks absorbed god knows how many years of Allan Houston's contract and still were able to function...somewhat.
Also, to put some more silver lining behind this wretched event, this latest move leads me to believe Neukom and company aren't completely sold on Sabean and Bochy just yet.
If Neukom truly believed in these two, there would have been a three year extension minimum. Granted, his confidence in the two isn't too shaky (if he had only given a one-year extension then he would have showed a serious lack of faith), but it's certainly shaky enough to the point where he can be fair about Sabean and Bochy's future and not be totally bought by the overachieving 2009 season (unlike the Razor and Mr. T and the rest of the Bay Area media).
Overall, I'm not happy with the two back in the Bay. But for the first time since taking over for former owner Peter Magowan, I am starting to think that Neukom might know how to run a professional ball club.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Sabean and Bochy to be Back in San Francisco Next Year
Today, I stumbled upon this gem in the Fanposts of McCovey Chronicles after the Giants' 7-3 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, which completed the series sweep (a little too late, huh boys?)
Basically, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy will be back as Giants General Manager and Field Manager next season.
San Jose Mercury Giants Beat Writer Andrew Baggarly seemed to confirm the same things as well, also mentioning that Sabean and Bochy will be both signed to multi-year deals.
Overall, I'm not too happy with owner Bill Neukom's decision to bring back both Bochy and Sabean. However, I had a feeling if Sabean was coming back, so was Bochy just because Bochy seems to be Sabean's guy and Sabean has always been more than patient with managers in the past (he gave Felipe Alou four years for chrissakes!).
I'm mostly unhappy with the decision because you get the feeling that if somebody else other than Sabean was running the front office, and somebody other than Bochy was making the lineups, this team could have had made the playoffs, especially with the Dodgers struggling right now. Yet because Bochy insisted on batting Bengie Molina in the four-hole and playing Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand over Nate Schierholtz, the Giants feel just short of the playoffs.
All I know, is Sabean and Bochy better deliver next year and make the playoffs. If they don't, then they shouldn't be back in 2011, bottom line.
So Sabes and Boch, congrats on your re-signings. Now go out and get somebody who can score some freaking runs, and learn how to make up a decent lineup, okay?
Basically, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy will be back as Giants General Manager and Field Manager next season.
San Jose Mercury Giants Beat Writer Andrew Baggarly seemed to confirm the same things as well, also mentioning that Sabean and Bochy will be both signed to multi-year deals.
Overall, I'm not too happy with owner Bill Neukom's decision to bring back both Bochy and Sabean. However, I had a feeling if Sabean was coming back, so was Bochy just because Bochy seems to be Sabean's guy and Sabean has always been more than patient with managers in the past (he gave Felipe Alou four years for chrissakes!).
I'm mostly unhappy with the decision because you get the feeling that if somebody else other than Sabean was running the front office, and somebody other than Bochy was making the lineups, this team could have had made the playoffs, especially with the Dodgers struggling right now. Yet because Bochy insisted on batting Bengie Molina in the four-hole and playing Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand over Nate Schierholtz, the Giants feel just short of the playoffs.
All I know, is Sabean and Bochy better deliver next year and make the playoffs. If they don't, then they shouldn't be back in 2011, bottom line.
So Sabes and Boch, congrats on your re-signings. Now go out and get somebody who can score some freaking runs, and learn how to make up a decent lineup, okay?
Friday, August 21, 2009
With Bochy's Contract Ending Soon, Does He Fit Into the Giants' Plans?
From Bleacher Report
With Giants general manager Brian Sabean, and skipper Bruce Bochy in their last years of their contract, many Giants fans have wondered if new owner Bill Neukom will keep both guys in the San Francisco organization next year.
Sabean, who has been with the Giants as GM since 1997, can be credited for turning around the Giants after inheriting a miserable team that was coming off a last place finish in the NL West in 1996.
However, Sabean had been widely criticized for overpaying for veteran players (i.e. Barry Zito, Dave Roberts etc.), and making questionable trades (i.e. the Pierzynski deal) that set back the Giants' farm system for years.
Despite those setbacks and the amount of Sabean-naysayers and "Fire Sabean" Web sites, it is a good bet that Sabean is going to be back as general manager of the Giants next year.
With the team surpassing expectations this year, and the sudden influx of young talent in the minor leagues and on the major league roster, Sabean seems to have the Giants back on track like he promised. In 2008, he made the commitment that the team would rely on young talent rather than aging veterans (as evidenced by letting their organizational figurehead, Barry Bonds, become a free agent).
That being said, while Sabean looks to be running the Giants front office for at least a couple of more years after 2009, the ground that manager Bochy is currently standing on doesn't seem so firm.
Sure, Bochy was Sabean's hire to replace Felipe Alou back in 2006, but that was a different time and a different Giants organization.
That was former owner Peter Magowan's Giants organization, and that was a team that was consistently one of the oldest major league teams year after year.
Bochy made sense for the Giants when he was hired back in 2006.
He was a manager known for being the kind of skipper that players liked playing for. He was a guy who knew how to run a clubhouse, and was known for not butting heads in the locker room, even with the most fickle of stars.
Now, though, it just doesn't seem like Bochy fits anymore in this organization. For the most part, this Giants fanbase wants the same young influx in the lineup that they see in the rotation.
Giants fans want to see guys like Nate Schierholtz be an everyday player. They want to see Buster Posey called up and be the starting catcher in 2010. They want Angel Villalona to be the guy in a year or two at first base.
And yet, Bochy doesn't seem to satisfy those wants.
Despite Schierholtz raking in the past few weeks, Bochy has insisted on starting Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand, even though statistically they cannot measure up to what Schierholtz has been doing at the plate.
Bochy has stuck with Edgar Renteria at shortstop, even though he is having one of his worst seasons at the plate.
To make matters worse, other than Sandoval, and to some extent Schierholtz and Ishikawa, Bochy has buried his young guys in the organization in their callups.
Infielder Kevin Frandsen, first baseman/outfielder John Bowker and first baseman Jesus Guzman have all gotten called-up multiple times this year, and yet, at the first sign of trouble, they have been sent to the bench and eventually back to Fresno, simply because they need more "at-bats."
You could blame Sabean for those transactions. However, if Frandsen, Bowker and Guzman were playing at least a decent amount, do you think they would have been sent down so quickly?
I don't believe so.
And as those guys continue to get at-bats against Pacific Coast League pitching, Rich Aurilia continues to be on the roster even though he holds no value on this team whatsoever.
Molina continues to be in the cleanup hole, even though it would probably be in the Giants' best interest if they had somebody else in that big spot (how about Schierholtz and Sandoval three and four? You think that would be any worse than the current Sandoval-Molina combo?).
Bochy is a good manager overall. I honestly believe he has been good for this current team. Chances are though, the team we see today probably won't be around next year.
Molina and Winn, in the last years of their contract, could (and probably should) be gone.
After his miserable performance at the plate this year, it isn't preposterous to think Sabean will try to deal Renteria next year to any bidder that is desperate for a shortstop.
So with this team probably being radically different, and radically younger, Bochy simply isn't the kind of fit that would best utilize this team.
The Giants may need somebody who is more in the mold of being able to work with young players, and able to have patience with them.
They cannot have a manager who is apt to go with Aurilia at the first sign of trouble. They do not need a manager who two years ago went with Dave Roberts over better options at the time such as Fred Lewis.
I know I have supported Bochy for what he has done this season. He is a manager that should be in contention for the National League Manager of the Year award.
But he is a veteran players' manager. That is why they hired him in the first place.
With a young team, he will be out of his element, simply because he is more apt to trust those guys who have history rather than those guys without any, even if those guys with history are unlikely to repeat what they did in the past.
Granted, Bochy isn't somebody the Giants should replace regardless. If the Giants cannot find a good candidate to succeed him, then the Giants should stand pat and resign for a couple of more years.
After all, we've seen in the past what happens when a team replaces a manager without doing the right kind of research. Seattle, Washington and Oakland fans can certainly attest to that.
That being said, all this hoopla with Bochy depends on the Giants' plans in the offseason. If Sabean is intent on going after some big free agents in the Jason Bay and Matt Holliday mold, maybe Bochy still would have a place on this team.
Like I said before, when it comes to handling veterans and managing a clubhouse, Bochy is one of the best in baseball.
However, if Sabean continues to do what he promised, and continues to move up more and more guys up from the minors to the Major League roster next year, then I don't believe Bochy's job is safe, despite what the team may accomplish this season.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Rowand or Winn? Who is the odd man out in the Giants' outfield?
Either Aaron Rowand (center) or Randy Winn (left) is going to be the centerfielder during the last couple of months. Who it will be though is to be determined.From Bleacher Report
With Nate Schierholtz back in the lineup healthy, Giants manager Bruce Bochy is put in an intriguing situation when it comes to his outfield.
Who will be the odd man out?
Already, one guy has been eliminated from consideration.
John Bowker, who has been lighting it up at Triple-A Fresno this year, doesn't seem to have a place on this Giants roster this season.
Until the July acquisition of Ryan Garko from Cleveland, Bowker's best shot at playing for the Giants would have been at first base. Now with Travis Ishikawa and Garko platooning the first base position, a crowded outfield, and Bowker not putting up eye-popping stats at the Major League level this year, he seems to be destined to spend the rest of the season at Triple-A.
Other than Bowker, things get tricky.
When Andres Torres gets back to the lineup after healing from a hamstring injury, the Giants will be suited with six outfielders who can certainly merit consideration for regular playing time.
Torres, Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn, Schierholtz, Eugenio Velez and Fred Lewis are all players who can play regularly in the Giants outfield.
So far, two guys have earned starting outfield positions for the rest of the season:
Velez and Schierholtz.
Velez deserves regular playing time simply because he is the best option for the Giants at leadoff currently. While he does not have a lot of stolen bases, Velez's combination of ability to make contact and speed on the basepaths make him a player that the Giants simply can't afford to bench.
As for Schierholtz, he has the best arm in the Giants outfield by leaps and bounds. After spending time on the DL, Giants fans were reminded how much they missed his cannon arm with constant ducks by Winn who replaced Schierholtz in right field.
Schierholtz makes baserunners and basecoaches think twice about sending a guy home when the ball is hit to right field. Even in this series against the Mets, speedster Luis Castillo has nearly been caught twice by Schierholtz throws.
I guarantee you with Winn or even Velez patrolling the right field position, those throws would not have been close as they were.
In addition to his gun, Schierholtz is a left-handed bat that the Giants need on a consistent basis.
With a .294 batting average, .323 OBP and four home runs and 20 RBI, he is the kind of player that has the kind of pop that the Giants need for the stretch run in August and September.
So, with Velez and Schierholtz mainstays in left and right field, who patrols the centerfield position?
Basically, it will come down to two veterans that have underachieved this season:
Rowand and Winn.
Lewis is eliminated simply because he is a defensive liability, but that isn't to say he should be buried on the bench Kevin Frandsen-style. His approach at the plate has been refreshing as evidenced by his batting average rising 23 points since July 23. Furthermore, he currently has a .471 batting average, .571 OBP and a 1.218 OPS in August.
Unlike some critics, Lewis getting starts every now and then shouldn't be out of the question. His high OBP in comparison to other Giants outfielders, and sudden resurgence in the batters box is valuable to this Giants team.
That being said, he simply can't make plays defensively in the outfield. He bobbles too many off the wall, has iron hands and takes bad angles. It is an adventure for him out there, and because of that, he just can't be trusted to be the regular outfielder he once was.
So with Lewis out, and Torres also suited more to being a spark off the bench ala Dave Roberts circa 2004, should the Giants go with Rowand or Winn?
Whoever Bochy decides upon, it isn't going to be pretty.
Despite signing with the Giants prior to the 2008 season with the expectations of being one of the centerpieces of the Giants offense, Rowand has been a bit of a letdown, especially this season.
Rowand has struggled mightily at the plate, and while his .266 average, .321 OBP and nine homers and 45 RBI might suggest otherwise, you have to see what he's done lately to see how badly Rowand is playing.
In the month of July, Rowand hit only .190 with a .235 OBP and struck out 18 times in 63 at-bats (a high number considering he struck out 28 times in 97 at-bats in June and 22 times in 106 at-bats in May).
August has been even worse for Rowand. This month he has a .186 batting average, a .205 OBP and has struck out 12 times in 43 at-bats (his strikeout number boosted by a hat trick on August 13 against the Mets).
Sure, Rowand is a great defensive player and certainly a leader in the clubhouse. Yet his woes at the plate are simply killing the Giants offense.
As for Winn, while his July numbers were respectable (He hit .276 with a .330 OBP in July), his August numbers are even more atrocious than Rowand's.
After today's game against the Mets, Winn has hit .184 with a .262 OBP and sports a woeful .184 slugging percentage this month.
Winn is less susceptible to the strikeout than Rowand (he has only six this month and had only 13 in July in the same amount of at-bats as Rowand). However, he simply can't hit the ball out of the infield, as Giants fans have been accustomed to the sight of Winn grounding to the second baseman or shortstop on a regular basis.
In order for the Giants to continue to stay in contention for the Wild Card spot, either Rowand or Winn is going to have to improve upon their late meager performances, and perhaps claim the centerfield position during this road trip.
The Giants need stability in centerfield, and considering both Rowand and Winn's histories, either player is more than capable of being a solid producer at the position in terms of at the plate and defensively.
Whoever the odd man out is though, it undoubtedly will be a blow to that player's ego. I'm sure it won't be easy for one of them to be regulated to situational status after going into the year with expectations of being a regular starter.
Yet with a playoff berth on the line, I guarantee you both these guys will make the necessary sacrifices in order to have a chance at a World Series ring.
At this point, it is tough to say who will be the centerfielder for the rest of the year. Both guys are playing too poorly for Bochy to make a definitive decision. The first guy who steps up and starts showing signs of life and production most likely will be the player Bochy will lean on in September.
Whether it is Rowand or Winn or whoever, Bochy and company better make a decision quickly.
After losing two of three so far in this road trip to the Mets, the Giants need to get things settled in the lineup to stop the bleeding.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
