First off, yes, I'm posting on Easter. Which means one of four things:
1.) I'm away from family and don't have enough money to make the trip back home by road or air
2.) I'm not religious, don't believe in Easter or any God for that matter and like to live a shallow life that is devoid of anything "spiritual."
3.) Am Jewish and celebrated Passover already.
4.) Am at home, but trying to avoid family because well...I'm just an anti-social kind of guy that would rather spend time in front of a computer than with family.
Well, if you guessed one, you would be correct. Two or three wouldn't have been bad choices, simply because I never touch anything religious on this blog, so my religious views have been (and will remain) fairly ambiguous. And as for four, well...you just have to be a jerk to think that, so shame on you. I hope you feel better after you eat your Ham on Easter Sunday.
Bitterness aside, on to the 2012 preview of the San Jose Giants.
2011 Recap:
The San Jose Giants got off to a roaring start to begin the year, as they finished the first half with an unreal record of 51-19, good for the best record in the Cal League overall at the time. The Giants finished the first half 13 games ahead of second place Stockton, and 16 games ahead of third place Bakersfield. Considering the Giants past history of success in the California League (they have been in the title hunt consistently the past five years), the Giants looked primed for another run at the CL championship in 2011.
However, with the callups of Chris Dominguez, Francisco Peguero and Heath Hembree to Richmond by mid-season, a trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets (in the Carlos Beltran) and a mid-season slump by top prospect Gary Brown, the Giants regressed in the second half, going 38-32 over their next 70 games. The Giants did have a chance to win the Northern Division at the end of the year, but they ended up losing out to Stockton in the Northern Division Championship series. Still, at 90-50, it was an impressive year overall for the South Bay Giants, and the fans took notice, as they finished with the second-best attendance in the Cal League.
Offensively, everything began and ended with Brown, whose strong campaign in the Cal League garnered him honors as the Giants' top prospect going into 2012 by almost every publication and analyst. Brown posted a slash of .336/.407/.519 and added a .925 OPS to go along with 14 home runs, 115 runs scored and 53 stolen bases. For his efforts, Brown was named the 2011 Cal League Rookie of the Year and also earned a spot in the Futures Game at All-Star Weekend.
However, Brown wasn't the only bat that stood out in San Jose. Before getting call ups to Fresno and San Francisco, catcher Hector Sanchez went from middling catcher prospect to a Top-10 system guy after lighting up Cal League pitching in only 52 games. The 21-year-old Venezuelan put up a .302/.338/.533 line in 228 plate appearances and also added 11 home runs and 58 RBI to his already gaudy averages. Fellow countryman Ehire Adrianza sparked the Giants offense in the second half after Peguero and Dominguez moved up to Richmond, as the slick-fielding shorstop posted a career best slash of .300/.375/.470 in 262 plate appearances.
While the offense was a force for San Jose in 2011, the pitching was sneakily good, even after they lost Wheeler in the Beltran trade. The Giants pitching staff finished first in the Cal League runs allowed per game at 4.21, which was 0.80 runs better than second place Stockton. San Jose also finished with the league's best team ERA at 3.70 (they were the only CL team under 4.00) and second-best WHIP at 1.33 (only .04 behind first-place Stockton).
While Wheeler was the Giants' most dynamic pitcher in his tenure in San Jose (he struck out 98 in 88 innings pitched), he was far from the best pitcher statistically on the San Jose roster in 2011. The rotation was led by the three-headed-force of Craig Westcott, Chris Heston and Kelvin Marte, who all threw over 145 innings in 2011, and posted sub-4 ERAs (3.42, 3.16, 3.47, respectively). Though he finished a win behind Westcott in the W-L column, Heston was the most impressive of the three as he finished with the best K/BB ratio (3.28), K/9 (7.8), HA/9 (8.6) of the bunch. Heston was 23 years old last year, so he was around league average when it came to age (the average age of CL pitchers was 23.2 last year), but he certainly has the potential to be a strong contributor to the rotation in Richmond in 2012.
After Hembree dominated the CL (21 saves, 0.73 ERA, 16.1 K/9) and predictably earned a call up to the Eastern League, Jake Dunning and Mitch Lively split closer duties to mixed results. While Dunning did earn 10 saves, he posted a 4.74 ERA and allowed 10.2 hits per nine innings. While he did post solid K/BB ratios (2.96), Dunning has to improve his ability to limit contact if he wants to survive in the move to the Eastern League this upcoming season.
As for Lively, though an older prospect at 25 years old, he finished the year with nice numbers, recording 8 saves and posting a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 38 appearances and 17 games finished. Lively will be 26 years old and will bypass Richmond and begin the year in Triple-A Fresno.
Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?
San Jose should be a nice showcase for 2011 Giants draft picks, as catcher Andrew Susac, first baseman Ricky Oropesa, and first round pick, shortstop Joe Panik will all begin the year in the Cal League. So far, the results have been a little mixed for Oropesa and Susac, as they are batting .250 and .231 after three games, respectively. However, it is still VERY early in the season, and they could bounce those numbers up with a solid game today against Modesto.
As for Panik, he is continuing where he left off in the Northwest League, as he is putting up a slash of .400/.538/.600 in 10 at-bats. Panik has recorded two doubles and three walks and no strikeouts going into today's game. As he showed last year in Salem Keizer, Panik's mature skills and approach has illustrated why the Giants took him in the first round of the draft last season (despite the scoffs of many scouts and experts). I expect Panik to really stand out this year and have a breakout season similar to Brown a year ago, though without the speed or home run numbers (though I think he could come close in the home runs and I think their slugging percentages will be similar because of Panik's ability to hit to the gaps).
One of the big under-the-radar prospects to watch for San Jose is Adam Duvall, who is coming off a sensational year in Augusta where he posted a .912 OPS to go along with 22 home runs. Duvall shares a similar prospect profile to Chris Dominguez in the sense that they are both from the University of Louisville and both third base prospects. While he doesn't have the athleticism or plus tools of Dominguez, Duvall's Sally numbers in 2011 were more impressive than Dominguez's 2010. While he hasn't gotten of to the best start (Duvall has struck six times in 12 at-bats and has no walks and only one hit), he could be a key component to this Giants offense in 2012.
Another infield prospect to watch out for will be Carter Jurica, a 2010 draft pick who split last year between the Arizona Rookie League and the Cal League. Jurica posted a .250/.355/.383 slash last year in San Jose, and also added four home runs and five stolen bases. Most of Jurica's value comes defensively, as he has been noted for his solid though unspectacular glove up the middle. He and Panik should provide a very interesting double play combo up the middle, and are expected to rotate between second and shortstop throughout the year.
The outfield will be led Jarett Parker, who'll be making his second tour of duty in the Cal League in 2012. While Parker displayed nice power potential (13 home runs), and a patient approach (.360 OBP, 0.51 BB/K ratio, 74 walks in 571 plate appearances), he struggled in terms of making consistent contact at the plate, as evidenced by his .260 average, 70 percent contact rate, and team-leading 144 strikeouts. I don't expect Parker to stay the whole year in San Jose, as I think he is due for a call up to Richmond at some point this year simply because of his age (he'll be 23). However, he does need to show progress at the plate in terms of making better contact if he wants to be taken more seriously as a prospect. Right now, his stock has regressed since he was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft, and he looks to be way behind outfielder prospects such as Brown and Peguero.
The rest of the outfield looks pretty thin, as Ryan Lollis and Chris Lofton will look to contribute to the Giants lineup. Lollis put up stellar numbers in Augusta last year, posting a slash of .314/.393/.422 and an OPS of .816 in .296 at-bats, but he struggled in call ups to San Jose and Richmond, posting OPS numbers of .627 and .444, respectively. Lofton is a strong athlete who was rated by Baseball America as being the best athlete of any Giants pick other than Brown in the 2010 draft. A ninth round pick, Lofton put up a pedestrian .615 OPS in 418 at-bats in Augusta. He did steal 22 bags with the Green Jackets, but he was caught 14 times, a sign that his instincts on the basepaths aren't that great and are in need of improvement in San Jose. However with his athleticism, Lofton has a lot of potential to be a contributor to this San Jose lineup in 2012.
Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?
Shawn Sanford and Taylor Rogers led the Green Jackets rotation in 2011 and will be expected to do the same in San Jose in 2012. Sanford's 10-10 record doesn't impress, but he did post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 3.57 in the Sally a year ago. Sanford's strength as a pitcher is his control, as he walked only 30 batters in 169.2 innings pitched (good for a BB/9 of 1.7). That being said, while his control, command and ability to keep the ball on the ground to limit hits has been impressive (1.69 GO/AO last year), he doesn't possess overwhelming stuff or strikeout prowess. Last year, his K/9 was only 5.7, a regression from the 8.6 mark he put up in 2010 in Salem Keizer. It'll be interesting to see how well he keeps batters at bay in the Cal League in 2012, especially considering the park factors and t he'll be around league average age-wise for a pitcher at 23 years old. He's off to a good start as he went six innings and allowed only three hits and no runs while walking one and striking out one in his debut start of the 2012 season (which resulted in a win for San Jose credited to Sanford).
As for Rogers, while his 2012 debut wasn't as impressive as Sanford's (he went five innings and allowed seven hits, two runs and a walk; but he did strike out seven and earned the win), he does share a similar profile to Sanford as a pitcher, even though he is a year older. Much like Sanford, Rogers showed good command in Augusta last year (2.26 K/BB ratio) and a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground (2.11 GO/AO ratio last year with the Green Jackets). However, he doesn't blow away hitters (5.0 K/9) and he can prove to be quite hittable (career H/9 of 9.3). While Sanford's age and skills give him a little bit more upside, Rogers could prove to be a good No. 2 guy in the San Jose rotation in 2012.
The Giants will have wild cards on the staff in Stephen Harrold, Seth Rosin, Josh Osich and Edward Concepcion, who will all be in the Giants bullpen to begin the year in 2012 (though Rosin and Osich have starter potential). Harrold was rated as the 25th best prospect in the Giants system, according to Baseball America, and Rosin is a power-armed right hander who has cracked the Top 30 in many lists. Both have showed a strong ability to strike batters out over the course of their minor league careers (Harrold has a minor league career K/9 of 9.3 while Rosin is just a notch below at 9.2), but they don't have very high ceilings as older, polished arms out of college.
Osich is a big wild card because it is unknown if the Giants will keep him in the bullpen or if they might move him into the rotation eventually. Osich started in college at Oregon State (and excelled as he threw a no-hitter against UCLA last year), but he had arm issues that could have been related to TJ surgery in 2009 (which forced him to miss 2010) and was shut down for the remainder of the 2011 season (which ended hurting his draft stock as he fell to the Giants' slot in the sixth round; he originally had first round/supplemental round potential pre-shut down). While it is probably wise to ease Osich into professional pitching by keeping him in the pen to begin the year, I do hope Giants management somehow works him into the rotation at some point this year. He has the ability to start, as evidenced by his track record in college, along with a repertoire that includes a solid fastball that touches 97 MPH, and a slider and changeup that have average to slightly above potential. A move of Osich to the rotation would increase his value significantly, and make him a steal as a sixth-round selection.
A sleeper out of the bullpen to watch out for is Concepcion, as he has showed a strong ability to strike batters out (career 9.1 K/9), but has had significant command and control issues as well. After a disastrous stint in the Northwest League which saw him post a 6.39 ERA and K/BB ratio of 1.24 (a minor league career low, and that includes his stint in the DSL) in 63.1 IP as a starter, Concepcion bounced back with a move to the pen in Augusta and posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.72 K/BB ratio in 52.1 IP. Concepcion still walked hitters in bunches (6.2 BB/9), but he did strike out 10.7 batters per nine innings, his best total in that category since his stint in the Arizona Rookie League (when it was 11.5). If Concepcion can harness his control even a little bit, he could be a very valuable arm in the San Jose bullpen this year, and could see his stock as a prospect rise by the end of the season simply because of his ability to strike batters out.
What Should We Expect from the Giants in 2012?
San Jose has been one of the strengths in the Giants' system "team-wise" for a while. They have consistently competed for Cal League titles while at the same time developing talent that has progressed nicely in their system. Of course, it's always tough to judge prospects (hitters especially) in the Cal League because of the offensive-friendly park factors. We have seen many hitters mash in the Cal League, only to be fully exposed in their transition to the Double-A Eastern League. This year, the offense will attract a lot of attention, especially with 2011 Draft picks Panik, Susac and Oropesa expected to get a lot of at-bats. Past those though (and maybe Duvall), the talent offensively does drop off quite a bit. I'm not a big believe in Lofton, and Jurica seems to be backup material at the Major League level at best. Furthermore, the pitching seems less strong in comparison to years past, as the staff lacks that front line starter they've sported in years past (Wheeler last year, Surkamp two years ago, Bumgarner and Alderson in 2009).
I think San Jose has produced a clubhouse environment where the team will always be competitive and I don't expect that to stop in 2012. However, considering how reliant they will be on offense (and considering this is Susac and Oropesa's first exposure to professional pitching, that's a big risk), and how thin the pitching looks, I expect a big regression for the CL Giants in 2012 from their 90-50 record a year ago.
Showing posts with label Josh Osich. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Josh Osich. Show all posts
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
OTF Top 30: No. 11-15; Culberson, Gillaspie, Mejia, Blackburn, Osich
So it's been 11 days since my last post. It's been a weird month, and it's been hard to just find time to really sit down and post (not to mention tweet). For the sake of time interests, I've decided to streamline the rankings profiles a bit now. First off, I would like to have as many of the rankings up before Opening Day. Secondly, when you get deeper and deeper in the rankings, less and less information is available, so it's harder to come up with as in-depth profiles like the ones in the Top-10.
Hopefully, the posting will be a little more consistent from here on out.
No. 11: Charlie Culberson, Second Base
Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Utility infielder; at best, starting second base. At worst, career backup.
Summary: Culberson, the former supplemental round pick (2007 Draft), has had an up and down career as an infielder in the Giants system. Originally drafted as a shortstop, inconsistent defense forced a move from the position after the 2008 season in Augusta (he ended up playing third base in 2009 with the Green Jackets, until he ended up settling at Second Base in San Jose). The main problem with Culberson's defense is that he is too error prone, as he committed 75 errors in between his two campaigns in the Sally in 2009 and 2010. That being said, the move to second base has been worthwhile, as he has only committed 28 errors the past two years at the Keystone in San Jose and Richmond, which has improved his fielding percentages to .975 and .978 the past two years (in comparison, his fielding percentages in Augusta were .901 and .900, respectively).
Offensively, things started slow for Culberson, as the Sally seemed to overwhelm him as a hitter just out of high school. In two stints with the Green Jackets, he posted OPS numbers of .599 and .598, and he displayed little power (312.5 average slugging in Augusta), ability to hit for average (.240 batting average in two seasons in Single-A) and a poor approach at the plate (0.31 average BB/K ratio in Augusta). Much like fellow 2007 pick Wendell Fairley, many people felt that Culberson simply didn't have the offensive skills to project into a Major League player.
However, in 2010, Culberson broke out in all kinds of ways in the California League. He improved defensively with the transition to second base, becoming at least average defensively at the position. The biggest improvement though came offensively, as he hit 16 home runs, and posted a slash of .290/.334/.457 in 503 at-bats in San Jose. While the plate approach was still skeptical (0.33 BB/K ratio), the increased power (career high .167 ISO) as well as speed on the basepaths (25 stolen bases), gave some scouts and experts that Culberson could have 20-20 home run-stolen base potential in the mold of Dustin Pedroia, or at the very least 15-15 potential.
Of course, as mentioned before on this blog, Cal League stats always have to be taken with a grain of salt. While he did follow up his Cal League dominance with an excellent showing in the Arizona Fall League (he posted a .366/.394/.591 slash with two home runs and 21 runs scored in 99 plate appearances with the Scorpions), the Eastern League pitching proved to be dominating for him to replicate his High-A numbers. He regressed to post a slash of .259/.287/.382 in 553 at-bats, and his plate approach suffered, as he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.17, a career low.
While some would write off Culberson completely, I was actually a little comforted in some ways by his 2011 campaign in Richmond, and still hold some hope that he can turn into a good Major League player in a year or two. First off, he was still two years younger than the competition in the Eastern League (average hitter's age is 24), and while is power regressed, it didn't fall off a cliff like some hitters who make the transition from the Cal to the Eastern League. He still hit 10 home runs, and his ISO only dipped 44 points, not terrible considering his previous high ISO in the Sally was .085. He also made the Eastern League All-Star team, an honor that displayed that his season wasn't downright terrible by any stretch of the imagination.
What to Expect in 2012: It's tough to gauge where Culberson will be in 2012. An early injury in the beginning of work outs has kept him out of Spring Training so far, and it's likely that he won't be ready until the end of Spring Training as well. There was some hope that with a good Spring, Culberson could have made the transition to Triple-A to start the year. Now, it looks like he'll be in extended Spring Training and most likely starting out the year in Double-A again. While starting out in Double-A could be a good thing, Culberson needs to make some kind of transition upward this year, either to Triple-A (the most likely scenario) or to the Majors. The latter is probably a stretch, especially when you consider Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theirot and Emmanuel Burriss are ahead of him on the organizational depth chart at the Major League and Triple-A level. However, there needs to be a sign of improvement and a leap of some sort for Culberson as a prospect in 2012. While he is still only 23 years old, this will be his sixth full season as a professional. If he cannot build off the campaign in Richmond a year ago, it's probably likely to think that Culberson won't amount to much at the Major League level. If he does, then he and Joe Panik could be battling for the keystone position when Sanchez leaves town.
No. 12: Conor Gillaspie, Third Base
Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Utility infielder/outfielder; could start at third base or a corner outfield position in right situation.
Summary: Originally a highly heralded supplemental round pick in the 2008 draft (he was the Giants' second pick after Buster Posey), Gillaspie's career has started slow, but really picked up the past two seasons. After getting a peek at the Major League level in 2008 shortly after being drafted (a Major League callup was written into his contract in order for him to sign at a lower bonus), Gillaspie struggled in all areas of his game in 2009 in San Jose. He committed 27 errors at third base in 116 games, and he only posted a slash of .286/.364/.386 in 530 plate appearances. Despite the hitter-friendly environments, Gillaspie displayed little to no power ability in his first full year, as he only hit four home runs and posted a measly ISO of .100.
While the lack of power or defensive ability hurt his stock greatly in 2009, he did display a solid eye at the plate (0.81 BB/K ratio) and a strong ability to make contact (86 percent contact rate). When he made the transition to the Eastern League in 2010, he was able to transition those skills for the most part. While his BB/K ratio dipped a little, it still remained above average at 0.55, and his contact percentage remained unchanged at 86 percent. Furthermore, one of the reasons for the dip in BB/K ratio was he increased his aggressiveness at the plate, which resulted in a lower walk rate (from 10 to 7 percent), but increased power (.132 ISO). In fact, he doubled his home run total from the Cal League in the Eastern League (from 4 to 8), and his slugging and OPS numbers both improved from San Jose as well (to .420 and .757). Considering most prospects' power numbers go the opposite direction in the transition from the CL to the EL, the improvement was a promising sign that Gillaspie wasn't finished yet.
2011 proved to be Gillaspie's best year as a professional, as he posted his best overall numbers as a Minor Leaguer in Fresno. He hit 11 home runs and posted a slash of .297/.391/.453 with an OPS of .844. His contact rate dipped to 82 percent, but he posted career highs in walk percentage at 13 percent, BB/K ratio at 0.84, and ISO at .157. His stellar campaign with the Grizzlies earned him a callup to the Big Leagues, and he held his own in 19 at-bats, posting a slash of .263/.333/.421 with two walks, only one strikeout, and five hits, including an inside the park home run.
What to Expect in 2012: Gillaspie doesn't hold much room for projection at 24 years old. He is a polished offensive player that displays a strong ability to make contact and a great eye at the plate. However, while his power has started to develop since that lackluster 2009 campaign in San Jose, his upside probably remains at 10-15 home runs a year, and he doesn't offer much speed on the basepaths or athleticism on the field to boot. This proves to be a problem, because defensively, he doesn't really project to be more than a corner infielder or outfielder, and he certainly doesn't have the power tool set to justify consistent playing time at the positions. Gillaspie could be a player in the Bill Mueller-mold (corner infielder who gets on-base and hits for average despite wielding below-average power for their position), but those kinds of players tend to be very rare, and get even fewer opportunities. At the same time, Gillaspie most likely will (and should) get some more playing time at the Major League level in 2012 (though, most likely, he will start the year in Fresno barring injury to someone this Spring). Hopefully, he'll get some more playing time at other positions in Triple-A to maximize his value when he gets the call up some point this year.
No. 13: Adalberto Mejia, Left-handed pitcher
Overall grade: C+
Projection: No. 2-3 starting pitcher.
Summary: A Dominican bonus baby who was signed for $350,000 in 2011 by scout Pablo Peguero (who was also responsible for signing outfielders Francisco Peguero and Rafael Rodriguez), Mejia is still a project of sorts who is a long ways away in terms of being fully developed. Furthermore, while he does offer some upside, at his age and where he's at in his professional career, he still carries considerable risk as a prospect (Baseball America, which ranked him 26 in their prospect handbook, graded his risk factor as extreme).
However, Mejia simply dominated as a pitcher in the Dominican Summer League, most likely earning himself a ticket to the Arizona Rookie League and/or Short-Season Salem Keizer this year. While DSL stats can't be taken too seriously (any rookie league numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt), Mejia displayed impeccable control for an 18 year old who had just signed that season. He only allowed eight walks in 76 innings pitched, good for a walk percentage of 0.9 and a K/BB ratio of 8.9. Just to compare, Joan Gregorio, a right handed prospect who has been ranked higher than Mejia on most lists, allowed nine more walks (17) in two less innings pitched when he threw in the DSL in 2011, and posted a K/BB ratio 6.5 points lower than Mejia (2.4). So, while the numbers can't be weighted too heavily, one can't dismiss Mejia's advanced approach completely either.
Tools wise, Mejia is still raw, as he throws a fastball that goes in the 87-91 MPH range that touches 92 MPH. Furthermore, he has a decent changeup and is working on his slider, which right now is still more of a slurve, according to reports from Baseball America. That being said, he is still 18 and growing into his Six-foot, three inch frame. As he gets older and exposed to more professional instruction when he makes the transition stateside, it is likely that his pitching repertoire and ability will get better. His approach has already received good marks, so the Giants will be starting with an already solid foundation.
What to Expect in 2012: Mejia is still years away from the Big Leagues, and with most Latin American prospects, his future could go either way. Just judging from his numbers and the early reports, Mejia has that upside to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, though he probably doesn't have the front line stuff or size to be a No.1 (though as stated before, he could gain more velocity as he continues to develop physically). I expect the Giants to take things conservatively with Mejia, and I don't really see him pitching beyond the Northwest League in 2012. However, if he continues to transition his command and control to the states, I wouldn't be surprised to see him be more of a riser in more prospect lists going into 2013.
No. 14 Clayton Blackburn, right-handed pitcher
Overall Grade: C+
Projection: No. 2/3 Starter; reliever at worst
Summary: Drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft, the prep arm out of Oklahoma (the same state that produced top picks Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley in the 2011 draft) probably had the biggest pitching breakout out of the Giants' picks in 2011 (Joe Panik had the biggest breakout overall).
After signing, Blackburn made his debut in the Arizona Rookie League, and much like Mejia in the DSL, Blackburn displayed impeccable command and control for an 18 year old. In 33 innings pitched, he struck out 30 and walked only 3 batters total. (That's right, Three!) In addition, he only gave up 4.6 hits per nine innings and posted a BB/K ratio of 10. While it was only a 33 inning sample in Rookie ball, the stellar campaign had a lot of experts around the web and league wondering why Blackburn didn't go higher in the 2011 draft (though to be fair to other teams, it did seem like he was for sure going to honor his commitment to the University of Oklahoma going into the draft).
At six-foot, three inches and 220 pounds, his frame hints at front line rotation potential, or at the very least, middle of the rotation status. He has a four pitch arsenal, sporting a 90-93 MPH fastball, a good curve ball, and a slider and changeup, according to Rob Gordon of the MiLBA. Furthermore, while he didn't blow hitters away totally in his stint, Blackburn has excellent life on his pitches, and induces groundballs at an impressive rate (his GO/AO was 2.58 in 2011).
The main concern right now with Blackburn seems to be his size, for at 220 pounds, he is a bit on the heavy side, and isn't particularly athletic. Baseball America notes that he'll have to watch his conditioning in order to maintain and build stamina as a starting pitcher, especially as he makes the transition to full-season ball.
What to Expect in 2012: Blackburn is a big, young, high-ceiling arm that fits the mold of many former pitching prospects in the Giants organization (i.e. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner). While he doesn't have the upside of supplemental round pick Kyle Crick, Blackburn is a legitimate pitching prospect who has an advanced feel and repertoire for somebody his age. He most likely will begin the year in Low-A Augusta, which probably is the right track for him considering his youth. As noted before, his conditioning and stamina will be key things to keep an eye on in 2012, for a lot of his value is tied to him being a starter. If he can't keep the stamina to be a starting pitcher over a full year, his stock will take a hit. That being said, I am confident that he will stay in shape, and he could have a solid year in the Green Jackets' rotation in 2012.
No. 15: Josh Osich, Left-handed pitcher
Overall grade: C+
Projection: No. 4-5 starter; reliever
Summary: A sixth round pick, Osich had the makings of a first or second round draft choice going into the 2011 draft. However, Tommy John surgery in 2010, and arm concerns at the end of his 2011 season at Oregon State, scared off a lot of teams, and the Giants came in and swooped him up in the sixth round. Though he didn't play professionally last year, Osich did sign for $450,000 and passed a physical, so as of now, everything points to Osich being healthy and ready for the 2012 season.
As a pitcher, Osich had stretches of dominance during his time with the Beavers. He threw a no-hitter against powerhouse UCLA in 2011, and struck out 79 batters in 76.4 innings pitched his junior season. While he did post an ERA of 3.64 in 2011, his BB/K ratio remained decent at 2.32, and he only allowed 62 hits the entire year as well. Considering this was his first year coming off TJ surgery, and he couldn't really throw his breaking stuff due to the surgery, the numbers were a promising sign.
Right now, the big dilemma for the Giants is whether to break in Osich as a reliever or starter. Though he started in college and has starting potential, his injury concerns (he was pulled from an NCAA regional game in 2011 after one inning) probably will regulate Osich to the bullpen at least initially. Osich sports a three pitch arsenal, with a 92-95 MPH fastball that has been rated as four plus by Rob Gordon, and a slider and changeup. Baseball America noted that he didn't throw the slider very much last year due to injury concerns, and hence, that could have been the reason it wasn't graded very highly or very effective in 2011. Now that he has had a full year of play since TJ, it wouldn't be surprising to see his breaking stuff, especially his slider, become a more valuable part of his arsenal as a professional.
What to Expect in 2012: I am a big fan of Osich. I did a profile write-up on him going into the 2012 draft pick, and I thought he was worth spending a second round pick on, if available. The fact that the Giants got him in the sixth round to me is a steal (though as noted, we did spend second round money on him with his signing bonus). The health issues are a concern of course, but Osich has very good stuff and I think his secondary pitches will be even better now that he will be two years removed from TJ surgery that cost him his 2010 college season. I think the Giants will take things slow with him and start him in the bullpen, and in the Sally, just to be on the safe side. Though to be frank, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him pitch in High-A ball, simply due to his status as a high-round, college prospect.
Hopefully, the posting will be a little more consistent from here on out.
No. 11: Charlie Culberson, Second Base
Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Utility infielder; at best, starting second base. At worst, career backup.
Summary: Culberson, the former supplemental round pick (2007 Draft), has had an up and down career as an infielder in the Giants system. Originally drafted as a shortstop, inconsistent defense forced a move from the position after the 2008 season in Augusta (he ended up playing third base in 2009 with the Green Jackets, until he ended up settling at Second Base in San Jose). The main problem with Culberson's defense is that he is too error prone, as he committed 75 errors in between his two campaigns in the Sally in 2009 and 2010. That being said, the move to second base has been worthwhile, as he has only committed 28 errors the past two years at the Keystone in San Jose and Richmond, which has improved his fielding percentages to .975 and .978 the past two years (in comparison, his fielding percentages in Augusta were .901 and .900, respectively).
Offensively, things started slow for Culberson, as the Sally seemed to overwhelm him as a hitter just out of high school. In two stints with the Green Jackets, he posted OPS numbers of .599 and .598, and he displayed little power (312.5 average slugging in Augusta), ability to hit for average (.240 batting average in two seasons in Single-A) and a poor approach at the plate (0.31 average BB/K ratio in Augusta). Much like fellow 2007 pick Wendell Fairley, many people felt that Culberson simply didn't have the offensive skills to project into a Major League player.
However, in 2010, Culberson broke out in all kinds of ways in the California League. He improved defensively with the transition to second base, becoming at least average defensively at the position. The biggest improvement though came offensively, as he hit 16 home runs, and posted a slash of .290/.334/.457 in 503 at-bats in San Jose. While the plate approach was still skeptical (0.33 BB/K ratio), the increased power (career high .167 ISO) as well as speed on the basepaths (25 stolen bases), gave some scouts and experts that Culberson could have 20-20 home run-stolen base potential in the mold of Dustin Pedroia, or at the very least 15-15 potential.
Of course, as mentioned before on this blog, Cal League stats always have to be taken with a grain of salt. While he did follow up his Cal League dominance with an excellent showing in the Arizona Fall League (he posted a .366/.394/.591 slash with two home runs and 21 runs scored in 99 plate appearances with the Scorpions), the Eastern League pitching proved to be dominating for him to replicate his High-A numbers. He regressed to post a slash of .259/.287/.382 in 553 at-bats, and his plate approach suffered, as he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.17, a career low.
While some would write off Culberson completely, I was actually a little comforted in some ways by his 2011 campaign in Richmond, and still hold some hope that he can turn into a good Major League player in a year or two. First off, he was still two years younger than the competition in the Eastern League (average hitter's age is 24), and while is power regressed, it didn't fall off a cliff like some hitters who make the transition from the Cal to the Eastern League. He still hit 10 home runs, and his ISO only dipped 44 points, not terrible considering his previous high ISO in the Sally was .085. He also made the Eastern League All-Star team, an honor that displayed that his season wasn't downright terrible by any stretch of the imagination.
What to Expect in 2012: It's tough to gauge where Culberson will be in 2012. An early injury in the beginning of work outs has kept him out of Spring Training so far, and it's likely that he won't be ready until the end of Spring Training as well. There was some hope that with a good Spring, Culberson could have made the transition to Triple-A to start the year. Now, it looks like he'll be in extended Spring Training and most likely starting out the year in Double-A again. While starting out in Double-A could be a good thing, Culberson needs to make some kind of transition upward this year, either to Triple-A (the most likely scenario) or to the Majors. The latter is probably a stretch, especially when you consider Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theirot and Emmanuel Burriss are ahead of him on the organizational depth chart at the Major League and Triple-A level. However, there needs to be a sign of improvement and a leap of some sort for Culberson as a prospect in 2012. While he is still only 23 years old, this will be his sixth full season as a professional. If he cannot build off the campaign in Richmond a year ago, it's probably likely to think that Culberson won't amount to much at the Major League level. If he does, then he and Joe Panik could be battling for the keystone position when Sanchez leaves town.
No. 12: Conor Gillaspie, Third Base
Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Utility infielder/outfielder; could start at third base or a corner outfield position in right situation.
Summary: Originally a highly heralded supplemental round pick in the 2008 draft (he was the Giants' second pick after Buster Posey), Gillaspie's career has started slow, but really picked up the past two seasons. After getting a peek at the Major League level in 2008 shortly after being drafted (a Major League callup was written into his contract in order for him to sign at a lower bonus), Gillaspie struggled in all areas of his game in 2009 in San Jose. He committed 27 errors at third base in 116 games, and he only posted a slash of .286/.364/.386 in 530 plate appearances. Despite the hitter-friendly environments, Gillaspie displayed little to no power ability in his first full year, as he only hit four home runs and posted a measly ISO of .100.
While the lack of power or defensive ability hurt his stock greatly in 2009, he did display a solid eye at the plate (0.81 BB/K ratio) and a strong ability to make contact (86 percent contact rate). When he made the transition to the Eastern League in 2010, he was able to transition those skills for the most part. While his BB/K ratio dipped a little, it still remained above average at 0.55, and his contact percentage remained unchanged at 86 percent. Furthermore, one of the reasons for the dip in BB/K ratio was he increased his aggressiveness at the plate, which resulted in a lower walk rate (from 10 to 7 percent), but increased power (.132 ISO). In fact, he doubled his home run total from the Cal League in the Eastern League (from 4 to 8), and his slugging and OPS numbers both improved from San Jose as well (to .420 and .757). Considering most prospects' power numbers go the opposite direction in the transition from the CL to the EL, the improvement was a promising sign that Gillaspie wasn't finished yet.
2011 proved to be Gillaspie's best year as a professional, as he posted his best overall numbers as a Minor Leaguer in Fresno. He hit 11 home runs and posted a slash of .297/.391/.453 with an OPS of .844. His contact rate dipped to 82 percent, but he posted career highs in walk percentage at 13 percent, BB/K ratio at 0.84, and ISO at .157. His stellar campaign with the Grizzlies earned him a callup to the Big Leagues, and he held his own in 19 at-bats, posting a slash of .263/.333/.421 with two walks, only one strikeout, and five hits, including an inside the park home run.
What to Expect in 2012: Gillaspie doesn't hold much room for projection at 24 years old. He is a polished offensive player that displays a strong ability to make contact and a great eye at the plate. However, while his power has started to develop since that lackluster 2009 campaign in San Jose, his upside probably remains at 10-15 home runs a year, and he doesn't offer much speed on the basepaths or athleticism on the field to boot. This proves to be a problem, because defensively, he doesn't really project to be more than a corner infielder or outfielder, and he certainly doesn't have the power tool set to justify consistent playing time at the positions. Gillaspie could be a player in the Bill Mueller-mold (corner infielder who gets on-base and hits for average despite wielding below-average power for their position), but those kinds of players tend to be very rare, and get even fewer opportunities. At the same time, Gillaspie most likely will (and should) get some more playing time at the Major League level in 2012 (though, most likely, he will start the year in Fresno barring injury to someone this Spring). Hopefully, he'll get some more playing time at other positions in Triple-A to maximize his value when he gets the call up some point this year.
No. 13: Adalberto Mejia, Left-handed pitcher
Overall grade: C+
Projection: No. 2-3 starting pitcher.
Summary: A Dominican bonus baby who was signed for $350,000 in 2011 by scout Pablo Peguero (who was also responsible for signing outfielders Francisco Peguero and Rafael Rodriguez), Mejia is still a project of sorts who is a long ways away in terms of being fully developed. Furthermore, while he does offer some upside, at his age and where he's at in his professional career, he still carries considerable risk as a prospect (Baseball America, which ranked him 26 in their prospect handbook, graded his risk factor as extreme).
However, Mejia simply dominated as a pitcher in the Dominican Summer League, most likely earning himself a ticket to the Arizona Rookie League and/or Short-Season Salem Keizer this year. While DSL stats can't be taken too seriously (any rookie league numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt), Mejia displayed impeccable control for an 18 year old who had just signed that season. He only allowed eight walks in 76 innings pitched, good for a walk percentage of 0.9 and a K/BB ratio of 8.9. Just to compare, Joan Gregorio, a right handed prospect who has been ranked higher than Mejia on most lists, allowed nine more walks (17) in two less innings pitched when he threw in the DSL in 2011, and posted a K/BB ratio 6.5 points lower than Mejia (2.4). So, while the numbers can't be weighted too heavily, one can't dismiss Mejia's advanced approach completely either.
Tools wise, Mejia is still raw, as he throws a fastball that goes in the 87-91 MPH range that touches 92 MPH. Furthermore, he has a decent changeup and is working on his slider, which right now is still more of a slurve, according to reports from Baseball America. That being said, he is still 18 and growing into his Six-foot, three inch frame. As he gets older and exposed to more professional instruction when he makes the transition stateside, it is likely that his pitching repertoire and ability will get better. His approach has already received good marks, so the Giants will be starting with an already solid foundation.
What to Expect in 2012: Mejia is still years away from the Big Leagues, and with most Latin American prospects, his future could go either way. Just judging from his numbers and the early reports, Mejia has that upside to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, though he probably doesn't have the front line stuff or size to be a No.1 (though as stated before, he could gain more velocity as he continues to develop physically). I expect the Giants to take things conservatively with Mejia, and I don't really see him pitching beyond the Northwest League in 2012. However, if he continues to transition his command and control to the states, I wouldn't be surprised to see him be more of a riser in more prospect lists going into 2013.
No. 14 Clayton Blackburn, right-handed pitcher
Overall Grade: C+
Projection: No. 2/3 Starter; reliever at worst
Summary: Drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft, the prep arm out of Oklahoma (the same state that produced top picks Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley in the 2011 draft) probably had the biggest pitching breakout out of the Giants' picks in 2011 (Joe Panik had the biggest breakout overall).
After signing, Blackburn made his debut in the Arizona Rookie League, and much like Mejia in the DSL, Blackburn displayed impeccable command and control for an 18 year old. In 33 innings pitched, he struck out 30 and walked only 3 batters total. (That's right, Three!) In addition, he only gave up 4.6 hits per nine innings and posted a BB/K ratio of 10. While it was only a 33 inning sample in Rookie ball, the stellar campaign had a lot of experts around the web and league wondering why Blackburn didn't go higher in the 2011 draft (though to be fair to other teams, it did seem like he was for sure going to honor his commitment to the University of Oklahoma going into the draft).
At six-foot, three inches and 220 pounds, his frame hints at front line rotation potential, or at the very least, middle of the rotation status. He has a four pitch arsenal, sporting a 90-93 MPH fastball, a good curve ball, and a slider and changeup, according to Rob Gordon of the MiLBA. Furthermore, while he didn't blow hitters away totally in his stint, Blackburn has excellent life on his pitches, and induces groundballs at an impressive rate (his GO/AO was 2.58 in 2011).
The main concern right now with Blackburn seems to be his size, for at 220 pounds, he is a bit on the heavy side, and isn't particularly athletic. Baseball America notes that he'll have to watch his conditioning in order to maintain and build stamina as a starting pitcher, especially as he makes the transition to full-season ball.
What to Expect in 2012: Blackburn is a big, young, high-ceiling arm that fits the mold of many former pitching prospects in the Giants organization (i.e. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner). While he doesn't have the upside of supplemental round pick Kyle Crick, Blackburn is a legitimate pitching prospect who has an advanced feel and repertoire for somebody his age. He most likely will begin the year in Low-A Augusta, which probably is the right track for him considering his youth. As noted before, his conditioning and stamina will be key things to keep an eye on in 2012, for a lot of his value is tied to him being a starter. If he can't keep the stamina to be a starting pitcher over a full year, his stock will take a hit. That being said, I am confident that he will stay in shape, and he could have a solid year in the Green Jackets' rotation in 2012.
No. 15: Josh Osich, Left-handed pitcher
Overall grade: C+
Projection: No. 4-5 starter; reliever
Summary: A sixth round pick, Osich had the makings of a first or second round draft choice going into the 2011 draft. However, Tommy John surgery in 2010, and arm concerns at the end of his 2011 season at Oregon State, scared off a lot of teams, and the Giants came in and swooped him up in the sixth round. Though he didn't play professionally last year, Osich did sign for $450,000 and passed a physical, so as of now, everything points to Osich being healthy and ready for the 2012 season.
As a pitcher, Osich had stretches of dominance during his time with the Beavers. He threw a no-hitter against powerhouse UCLA in 2011, and struck out 79 batters in 76.4 innings pitched his junior season. While he did post an ERA of 3.64 in 2011, his BB/K ratio remained decent at 2.32, and he only allowed 62 hits the entire year as well. Considering this was his first year coming off TJ surgery, and he couldn't really throw his breaking stuff due to the surgery, the numbers were a promising sign.
Right now, the big dilemma for the Giants is whether to break in Osich as a reliever or starter. Though he started in college and has starting potential, his injury concerns (he was pulled from an NCAA regional game in 2011 after one inning) probably will regulate Osich to the bullpen at least initially. Osich sports a three pitch arsenal, with a 92-95 MPH fastball that has been rated as four plus by Rob Gordon, and a slider and changeup. Baseball America noted that he didn't throw the slider very much last year due to injury concerns, and hence, that could have been the reason it wasn't graded very highly or very effective in 2011. Now that he has had a full year of play since TJ, it wouldn't be surprising to see his breaking stuff, especially his slider, become a more valuable part of his arsenal as a professional.
What to Expect in 2012: I am a big fan of Osich. I did a profile write-up on him going into the 2012 draft pick, and I thought he was worth spending a second round pick on, if available. The fact that the Giants got him in the sixth round to me is a steal (though as noted, we did spend second round money on him with his signing bonus). The health issues are a concern of course, but Osich has very good stuff and I think his secondary pitches will be even better now that he will be two years removed from TJ surgery that cost him his 2010 college season. I think the Giants will take things slow with him and start him in the bullpen, and in the Sally, just to be on the safe side. Though to be frank, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him pitch in High-A ball, simply due to his status as a high-round, college prospect.
Monday, May 30, 2011
OTF MLB Draft Peek: Joe Ross, RHP, and Josh Osich, LHP
We're winding down toward the MLB Rule 4 Draft, and as expected, Mock Drafts continue to pop up. Let's take a look at two draft prospects who are being rumored to go to the 29th slot in the 2011 Draft.
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS
John Sickels in his latest mock draft has Ross going to the Giants slot. Ross is the younger brother of former top A's prospect and pitcher Tyson Ross, and much like his older brother, the younger Ross has an enticing arm and physical build for a pitcher.
At six-foot, two-inches and 190 pounds, Ross isn't as big as his older brother (who's six-foot, five-inches and 215 pounds), but he has a lot more room for growth and is a lot earlier in his development. Tyson didn't get drafted until after his collegiate tenure at Cal-Berkley. As for Joe, he is expected to go anywhere from the late first to supplemental round as a graduating high school senior. So, while Tyson was a little bit more developed as a pitcher when he was drafted in 2008, Joe may have more upside and ceiling than his older brother.
The one thing they do share in common is that they both have live arms and good stuff. Joe, according to MLB Draft Guide, throws his fastball in the 91-94 MPH range, and he has a "slider with plus potential." Ross does have a changeup, but according to reports, it is still a work in progress.
Mechanically, Ross throws from a three-quarter arm slot and his long limbs and athletic build adds to the deception of his delivery. Furthermore, according to MLB Draft Guide, he has showed good control in high school and is consistent with his delivery, a nice sign that he may be able to make the transition to professional quickly if he signs out of high school.
Currently, Ross is committed to go to UCLA, and head coach John Savage raves about Ross' potential. Savage said this about the Bay-Area pitcher:
Of course, you never know about a coach's praise. He is a recruit of Savage, and I'm sure he wants him to sign, so the praise is probably to be expected. Nonetheless, Ross has all the tools to be a good Major League pitcher, and it's obvious that barring injury, he can develop when he breaks into the minor leagues. Of course, considering his age and where he is at in his development, Ross is going to need some time to develop, as is usually the case with pitchers drafted out of high school.
In terms of where he is now, Ross isn't exactly impressive in comparison to other pitching prospects out of high school currently eligible for this year's draft. MLB Draft Insider graded his fastball a 45, his breaking stuff and changeup a 40, and his control and command a 40. However, while it currently isn't impressive, they are positive that he can grow and develop, as his fastball potential is a 55, his breaking stuff a 50 and his control/command a 55. MLB Draft Insider was especially optimistic about his mechanics, as that seems to be the strongest part of his game, as they rated his mechanics currently a 50 with 60 potential.
Ross is a good story because he's a Bay Area kid and a familiar name amongst Bay Area baseball circles. Furthermore, if the Giants draft him, they must really like him, because they don't have to go far to scout him (Bishop O'Dowd is in located in Oakland). With a baseball family pedigree, a live arm, and a need to upgrade the pitching depth in the minors, the Giants would seem to be a prime fit for Ross.
Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State
Baseball America has Osich going to the Giants in their latest mock draft, and he is a live-armed lefty out of Oregon State who comes with some red flags. Last year, he was shut down for the year in 2010 due to Tommy John surgery. However, Osich this year has come back with a fury, with his most notable performance being a no-hitter against UCLA on May 1st.
The big story of his no-hitter was that it came in a duel against UCLA ace Trevor Bauer. For those who don't know, Bauer is one of the top pitchers in the country, and is projected to go in the Top-15 of this year's draft.
Despite the injury concerns, Osich has the size and stuff to become a legitimate Major League pitcher. At six-foot, three-inches and 225 pounds, Osich is a hoss with an intimidating presence on the mound. According to MLB Draft Guide, he throws a mid-90's fastball with an above average changeup. He is also starting to throw his breaking ball again, which he waned off of to protect himself after Tommy John surgery.
John Klima of Baseball Beginnings was very positive about him in his scouting report, and felt that despite his injuries, he was still a player that would fly off the boards, especially after all the buzz generated from his no-hitter against the Bruins, a pretty quality baseball program. Here is what Klima said in his scouting report:
In comparison to Ross and other high school pitchers in this draft, Osich doesn't have that much of a ceiling. That is clear in his scouting reports according to MLB Draft Insider, as he only has a 50 potential in terms of his changeup and control/command, and a 55 potential in terms of mechanics and delivery and breaking stuff. The highest rated aspect of his game may be his fastball though, as MLB Draft Insider rated his fastball a 65. This is entirely possible, as he is coming off Tommy John, and before, reports had him clocked in the 97 MPH range.
Osich looks to be a polished left-hander with back of the rotation potential, but perhaps could find some solidity in the bullpen down the road. If the Giants want a guy that can advance through the system quickly, Osich may be their guy, as he has a lot less room to develop in comparison to Ross. I'm not thrilled about the injury history or his mechanics, but history has showed that pitchers have rebounded nicely after Tommy John, and the Giants pitching staff in the minors has done well in terms of working with pitchers with mechanics issues (Zack Wheeler being the biggest example).
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS
John Sickels in his latest mock draft has Ross going to the Giants slot. Ross is the younger brother of former top A's prospect and pitcher Tyson Ross, and much like his older brother, the younger Ross has an enticing arm and physical build for a pitcher.
At six-foot, two-inches and 190 pounds, Ross isn't as big as his older brother (who's six-foot, five-inches and 215 pounds), but he has a lot more room for growth and is a lot earlier in his development. Tyson didn't get drafted until after his collegiate tenure at Cal-Berkley. As for Joe, he is expected to go anywhere from the late first to supplemental round as a graduating high school senior. So, while Tyson was a little bit more developed as a pitcher when he was drafted in 2008, Joe may have more upside and ceiling than his older brother.
The one thing they do share in common is that they both have live arms and good stuff. Joe, according to MLB Draft Guide, throws his fastball in the 91-94 MPH range, and he has a "slider with plus potential." Ross does have a changeup, but according to reports, it is still a work in progress.
Mechanically, Ross throws from a three-quarter arm slot and his long limbs and athletic build adds to the deception of his delivery. Furthermore, according to MLB Draft Guide, he has showed good control in high school and is consistent with his delivery, a nice sign that he may be able to make the transition to professional quickly if he signs out of high school.
Currently, Ross is committed to go to UCLA, and head coach John Savage raves about Ross' potential. Savage said this about the Bay-Area pitcher:
”Joe is the best right-handed pitching prospect in California. He has a very athletic delivery and a fastball that explodes at the plate. We look forward to watching Joe compete for a weekend job right away at UCLA. His potential as a pitcher is unlimited.”
Of course, you never know about a coach's praise. He is a recruit of Savage, and I'm sure he wants him to sign, so the praise is probably to be expected. Nonetheless, Ross has all the tools to be a good Major League pitcher, and it's obvious that barring injury, he can develop when he breaks into the minor leagues. Of course, considering his age and where he is at in his development, Ross is going to need some time to develop, as is usually the case with pitchers drafted out of high school.
In terms of where he is now, Ross isn't exactly impressive in comparison to other pitching prospects out of high school currently eligible for this year's draft. MLB Draft Insider graded his fastball a 45, his breaking stuff and changeup a 40, and his control and command a 40. However, while it currently isn't impressive, they are positive that he can grow and develop, as his fastball potential is a 55, his breaking stuff a 50 and his control/command a 55. MLB Draft Insider was especially optimistic about his mechanics, as that seems to be the strongest part of his game, as they rated his mechanics currently a 50 with 60 potential.
Ross is a good story because he's a Bay Area kid and a familiar name amongst Bay Area baseball circles. Furthermore, if the Giants draft him, they must really like him, because they don't have to go far to scout him (Bishop O'Dowd is in located in Oakland). With a baseball family pedigree, a live arm, and a need to upgrade the pitching depth in the minors, the Giants would seem to be a prime fit for Ross.
Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State
Baseball America has Osich going to the Giants in their latest mock draft, and he is a live-armed lefty out of Oregon State who comes with some red flags. Last year, he was shut down for the year in 2010 due to Tommy John surgery. However, Osich this year has come back with a fury, with his most notable performance being a no-hitter against UCLA on May 1st.
The big story of his no-hitter was that it came in a duel against UCLA ace Trevor Bauer. For those who don't know, Bauer is one of the top pitchers in the country, and is projected to go in the Top-15 of this year's draft.
Despite the injury concerns, Osich has the size and stuff to become a legitimate Major League pitcher. At six-foot, three-inches and 225 pounds, Osich is a hoss with an intimidating presence on the mound. According to MLB Draft Guide, he throws a mid-90's fastball with an above average changeup. He is also starting to throw his breaking ball again, which he waned off of to protect himself after Tommy John surgery.
John Klima of Baseball Beginnings was very positive about him in his scouting report, and felt that despite his injuries, he was still a player that would fly off the boards, especially after all the buzz generated from his no-hitter against the Bruins, a pretty quality baseball program. Here is what Klima said in his scouting report:
"I first saw him in Palm Springs in 2009 he threw 97. In this look he sat 92-93 with a bump to 94. The velocity isn’t what it used to be, but it will be enough. He’s throwing from a mid 3/4 slot and sometimes drags his arm, which isn’t my favorite for any pitcher, but teams will look past that to get the left-handed power while they can get it. He’s still downhill enough to make it work, especially in this look, where his fastball was getting late cut into right-handed hitters. His second weapon for right-handers is a 80-82 change, both straight and with occasional sink, and he had good feel on this. There’s not a lot left to dream on here with this boy. He’s close to physical maturity and he won’t throw any harder, so you can expect him to be fast tracked."
In comparison to Ross and other high school pitchers in this draft, Osich doesn't have that much of a ceiling. That is clear in his scouting reports according to MLB Draft Insider, as he only has a 50 potential in terms of his changeup and control/command, and a 55 potential in terms of mechanics and delivery and breaking stuff. The highest rated aspect of his game may be his fastball though, as MLB Draft Insider rated his fastball a 65. This is entirely possible, as he is coming off Tommy John, and before, reports had him clocked in the 97 MPH range.
Osich looks to be a polished left-hander with back of the rotation potential, but perhaps could find some solidity in the bullpen down the road. If the Giants want a guy that can advance through the system quickly, Osich may be their guy, as he has a lot less room to develop in comparison to Ross. I'm not thrilled about the injury history or his mechanics, but history has showed that pitchers have rebounded nicely after Tommy John, and the Giants pitching staff in the minors has done well in terms of working with pitchers with mechanics issues (Zack Wheeler being the biggest example).
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