Okay. Two things to start off before I begin this second prospectus profile:
1.) Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints for their Super Bowl victory. (It was well-earned, unlike the Steelers' Super Bowl win in 2007.)
2.) I'm still shocked by the news that Hayden Panettiere and Wladimir Klitschko are dating. Seriously, this is the most shocking news I have ever heard in my life. I once mentioned the idea of Alex Rodriguez and Hayden dating to a friend, and my friend said "That's a bit uncomfortable for me to imagine." Klitschko tops that times 100.
Okay, now that those issues are out of the way, onto the second "prospectus profile" on Eugenio Velez.
Standard:
2009: 84 (games), 285 (at-bats), 307 (plate appearances), 76 (hits), 53 (singles), 13 (doubles), 5 (triples), 5 (home runs), 40 (runs), 31 (RBI), 16 (walks), 1 (IBB), 55 (strikeouts), 2 (HBP), 2 (SF), 2 (SH), 6 (GDP), 11 (SB), 5 (CS), .267 (batting average).
Advanced:
2009: 5.2 % (BB%), 19.3 (SO %), 0.29 (BB/K), .308 (OBP), .400 (SLG), .708 (OPS), .133 (ISO), 7.1 (SPD), .316 (BABIP), 31.6 (wRC), -5.1 (wRAA), .309 (wOBA).
Batted Ball:
2009: .316 (BABIP), 1.85 (GB/FB), 17.3 % (LD %), 53.7 % (GB %), 29 % (FB %), 6.0 % (IFFB %), 7.5 % (HR/FB %), 6 (IFH), 4.8 % (IFH %), 0 (BUH), 0% (BUH %).
Value:
2009: -5.3 (Batting), -1.8 (Fielding), 10.2 (Replacement), -1.4 (Positional), 1.7 (RAR), 0.2 (WAR), $1.2 million (WAR converted to Dollars scale).
Win Probability:
2009: 0.04 (WPA), -5.5 (-WPA), 5.54 (+WPA), 0.14 (RE24), 0.02 (REW), 1.04 (pLI), 1.74 (phLI), 14 (PH), 0.14 (WPA/LI), -0.1 (Clutch).
Plate Patience:
2009: 27.9 % (O-swing %), 71.9% (Z-swing %), 50.2 % (swing %), 60.6 % (O-contact %), 87.8 % (Z-contact %), 80.3 % (contact %), 50.7 % (Zone %), 57.3 % (F-strike %).
Fielding:
2009 (LF): 288.2 (innings), 49 (PO), 2 (A), 2 (E), 0 (DP), 0.962 (FP %), 1.2 (RF/G), 1.6 (RF/9), 23 (DG), 43 (exO), 0.1 (ARM), 7.8 (RngR), -0.8 (ErrR), 7.1 (UZR), 46.1 (UZR/150).
2009 (RF): 14 (innings), 3 (PO), 0 (A), 1 (E), 0 (DP), 1.00 (FP %), 0.6 (RF/G), 1.9 (RF/9), 2 (DG), 4 (exO), -0.4 (ARM), -1.1 (RngR), 0 (ErrR), -1.4 (UZR), -87.9 (UZR/150).
2009 (CF): 65.1 (innings), 13 (PO), 0 (A), 1 (E), 0 (DP), 0.929 (FP %), 1.1 (RF/G), 1.5 (RF/9), 7 (DG), 14 (exO), -0.9 (ARM), -1.1 (RngR), -0.2 (ErrR), -2.2 (UZR), -44.7 (UZR/150).
2009 (2B): 215.2 (IP), 55 (PO), 68 (A), 6 (E), 8 (DP), 0.954 (FP %), 4 (RF/G), 5.1 (RF/9), 29 (DG), 66 (exO), -0.4 (DPR), -2.7 (RngR), -2.2 (ErrR), -5.3 (UZR), -28.1 (UZR/150).
Bill James Projections:
2010: 82 (G), 206 (AB), 56 (H), 11 (2B), 3 (3B), 2 (HR), 28 (R), 20 (RBI), 25 (RC), 4.17 (RC/27), 13 (BB), 33 (SO), 14 (SB), 6 (CS), .70 (SB %), .272 (AVG), .318 (OBP), .383 (SLG), .702 (OPS).
Remember '51 Analysis:
Offensive:
Velez has tools, but unfortunately, they often go unrealized in his case. Velez has incredible speed, but his lackluster OBP (.308) and BB rate (5.2 percent), in 2009 show that he simply isn't patient enough at the plate to be a leadoff hitter at the Major League level. Granted, low OBP numbers don't automatically eliminate a guy from leadoff consideration (as evidenced by Willy Tavares), but Velez struggles to utilize his ability as a base-stealer.
In 2009, Velez stole 11 bases. However, he was caught five times. In order to be more utilized on this Giants team, he has to get a better sense when it comes to stealing bases, especially with their leading base-stealer, Randy Winn, now a Yankee.
Velez did have five triples in 2009 (second-most on the team), and hit five home runs, so Velez did show some semblance of power at the plate in 2009. However, he still seems to rely a lot on "seeing-eye" groundballs for base hits. This is evidenced by a 1.85 GB/FB ratio and 53.7 percent groundball rate.
One good quality of Velez's is that he isn't too terrible in terms of swinging at pitches outside the strike zone (especially in comparison to his Giants teammates). He only had a 27.9 percent O-Swing percentage, which put him in the middle of the pack on this Giants roster. Is he incredible? No, but there are players with much worse percentages, and the problem doesn't seem to plague him like it did earlier in his career. Also, surprisingly, out of all the the returning outfielders from last year's squad, Velez had the best contact rate at 80.3 percent (only Randy Winn had a higher contact rate than Velez at 81.2 percent).
Defensive:
Velez can play all three outfield positions and second base. Thus, with that kind of versatility, one would think he'd have tremendous value defensively, right? Not exactly.
With the exception of left field, Velez posted negative UZR ratings at all of his defensive positions. He had a -1.4 UZR at right field, a -2.2 in center field, and a -5.3 UZR at second base. Therefore, left field is really the only position Velez can play, but thankfully for the Giants, he can play it pretty well. His 7.1 UZR in left field in 2009 was the fourth-highest overall on the team.
Velez has good range to handle AT&T Park's big outfield dimensions. His 7.8 RngR was third best on the team last year (behind Winn and Travis Ishikawa). That being said, his arm strength leaves a little to be desired. He posted 0.1, -0.4, and -0.9 ARM ratings in left, center and right field, respectively in 2009.
Contract:
Velez made $404,000 last year, just four grand over the league minimum. Velez should post similar contract figures again this season, since he is still at least another year away from arbitration. That being said, he does provide good bang for the buck. Unlike some outfielders (Aaron Rowand and Mark Derosa come to mind), he won't cost the Giants a tremendous amount of money in 2009. And, to make matters more favorable for him, his WAR converted to dollars measured to $0.8 million last year. It is likely to think that he will post similar, if not slightly better WAR converted to dollars numbers in 2010. Therefore, the Giants will at least be getting more from Velez than what they will be paying him in 2010.
Outlook for 2010:
James has him only playing 82 games, and it makes sense. With the additions of Derosa and Aubrey Huff, Velez most likely will have a limited role on next year's team. Granted, he has speed, and last year, he did show some progress at the plate (though probably not as much as some would like to think). However, his lackluster walk numbers and inconsistency will probably keep him from getting much playing time in 2010. And, with guys like Andres Torres and Fred Lewis also battling for outfield spots next year, Velez will not have much room for error in Spring Training.
Remember '51 Grade: C
Velez has talent, you can't deny that. But he's not exactly young (he'll be 28) and he just doesn't seem to offer more than what a guy like Lewis could offer. If he had more respectable OBP numbers, he'd be a decent option for the Giants in terms of playing more regularly. Unfortunately, his numbers are atrocious to the point where not even his decent speed (five triples, 11 stolen bases) can make him a respectable starting/regular-playing outfield option for the Giants.
Showing posts with label Prospectus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prospectus. Show all posts
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Giants Prospectus Profile: Freddy Sanchez, Second Baseman
This is the first post of a series of posts looking at the players on the Giants roster analytically and through sabermetrics. I don't know if I'll have time to finish all the players before the season starts, but I'll try to be consistent with the updates.
Also, these stats on Sanchez don't include his Pittsburgh first-half numbers, just his numbers with the Giants.
Standard statistics:
2009: 25 (games played), 102 (AB), 107 (PA), 29 (hits), 27 (singles), 1 (doubles), 0 (triples), 1 (home runs), 11 (runs scored), 7 (RBI), 2 (BB), 0 (IBB), 16 (strikeouts), 1 (HBP), 2 (sac flies), 3 (sac hits), 3 (grounded into double plays), 0 (stolen bases), 0 (caught stealing), .284 (batting average).
Advanced statistics:
2009: 1.9 % (BB %), 15. 7 % (K %), 0.13 (K/BB), .284 (batting average), .295 (OBP), .324 (slugging), .619 (OPS), -0.39 (ISO), 1.6 (SPD), .329 (BABIP), 8.0 (wRC), -4.8 (wRAA), .274 (wOBA).
Batted Ball statistics:
2009: .329 (BABIP), 2.37 (GB/FB), 26.4 % (LD %), 51.7 % (GB %), 21.8 (FB %), 5.3 %(IFFB %), 5.3 (HR/FB), 1 (IFH), 2.2 % (IFH %), 0 (BUH), 0 % (BUH %).
Value:
2009: -4.9 (batting), 3.5 (fielding), 3.6 (replacement), 0.4 (positional), 2.6 (RAR), 0.3 (WAR), $1.2 million (WAR in Dollars).
Win Probability:
2009: -0.26 (WPA), -1.63 (-WPA), 1.37 (+WPA), -2.34 (RE24), -0.25 (REW), 0.82 (pLI), 0 (PH), -0.42 (WPA/LI), 0.1 (Clutch).
Plate patience:
2009: 35 % (O-swing %), 64.1 (Z-swing %), 50.4 % (swing %), 72.6 % (O-contact %), 88.2 % (Z-contact), 83.1 % (contact %), 52.8 % (zone %), 64.5 % (F-strike %).
Fielding:
2009: 210 (innings), 44 (PO), 65 (assists), 3 (Errors), 9 (double plays turned), 0.973 (fielding percentage), 4.4 (RF/G), 4.7 (RF/9), 24 (DG), 56 (exO), -0.5 (DPR), 3 (RngR), 1 (ErrR), 3.5 (UZR), 21.9 (UZR/150).
Bill James Projections:
2010: 138 (games), 539 (AB), 155 (hits), 35 (doubles), 2 (triples), 8 (home runs), 67 (runs), 56 (RBI), 71 (runs created), 4.78 (RC/27), 29 (walks), 76 (strikeouts), 4 (stolen bases), 2 (caught stealing), .670 (stolen base %), .288 (batting average), .329 (OBP), .404 (slugging), .733 (OPS).
Remember '51 Analysis
Offensively:
Sanchez is a contact hitter, but not necessarily a "smart" contact hitter. While Sanchez most likely will hover around the .275-.315 range in terms of batting average, his low walk rates (1.5 percent last season) and OBP (.295 in 2009) make him a risky hitter to have. Furthermore, Sanchez doesn't seem to understand the strike zone very well as evidenced by him swinging at 35 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (third highest on the team, behind Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina). And, to make his situation offensively worse, Sanchez has no power. He had only one home run last year as a Giant, and his sub .300 slugging wasn't good.
Sanchez's strength seems to be groundball singles. He has a high GB rate (51. 7 percent) and a high BABIP (.329). Therefore, he is gong to be a guy that will put the ball in play. However, his BABIP will determine whether or not he has a breakout or mediocre season. If the groundballs aren't getting through, he looks like a pretty pedestrian player rather than a two-time All-Star.
Sanchez isn't a terrible offensive player by any means. His strikeout rate is respectable (15.7 percent) -- though it doesn't help his K/BB ratio (0.13), which suffers greatly from his lousy walk rate. Furthermore, he will be a tough out at the plate because he makes contact well (83.1 contact rate). That being said, his offensive value doesn't look good on paper (-4.9) because he lacks power (-0.39 ISO, rare for an All-Star player not named Walt Weiss) and just doesn't seem to draw walks or show much patience at the plate.
Defensively:
Sanchez is solid defensively on paper. He had a high UZR (3.5), UZR/150 (21.9) RF (4.4) and RF/9 (4.7). Those were the highest numbers of any Giants second baseman in those categories. Thus, it is easy to see why he won a Gold Glove in his tenure with Pittsburgh, and sports a respectable value defensively (3.5).
There are some concerns though with Sanchez going into 2010. His double play rate leaves a little to be desired at -0.5. It especially looks bad when Kevin Frandsen and Matt Downs have better double play rates (0.4 and 0, respectively). Also, his RngR in 2009 didn't look hot at 3, and in 2010 may look worse considering the two surgeries Sanchez had this off-season.
Contract:
The Giants re-signed Sanchez for two years at six million per year this off-season. Though it is not a bad as the $8.1 million the Giants would have had to pay had he reached 500 PA last season, the Giants certainly got a bit swindled. His WAR converted to dollars last season was only $1.2 million. Thus, the Giants overpaid Sanchez by at least $3-4 million. With Orlando Hudson still on the market, chances are the Giants could have signed him at a much better deal (one year, $3-5 million) and probably get similar to better success at the second base position with Hudson.
Outlook for 2010:
Pre-injuries, Bill James' projections weren't all that great. His sub .300 OBP and sub .740 OPS didn't bode well for a team that ranked last in those categories in 2009. If Sanchez is going to be an All-Star for a second straight year, he's going to need a lot of help from his BABIP, which needs to be high in order to counteract Sanchez's lack of plate patience.
Defensively, I wouldn't expect a Gold Glove-caliber season out of Sanchez, especially after two major surgeries in less than six months. Giants fans should expect Sanchez to regress defensively from a season ago.
Remember '51 Grade: C+
Sanchez is a solid contact hitter and fielder, but lackluster plate patience, lack of power and injury problems severely downgrade his value as a Major League player. Sanchez will be lucky to touch his first half numbers from Pittsburgh a year ago, especially after his latest surgery, which will keep him out of Spring Training and perhaps Opening Day.
Also, these stats on Sanchez don't include his Pittsburgh first-half numbers, just his numbers with the Giants.
Standard statistics:
2009: 25 (games played), 102 (AB), 107 (PA), 29 (hits), 27 (singles), 1 (doubles), 0 (triples), 1 (home runs), 11 (runs scored), 7 (RBI), 2 (BB), 0 (IBB), 16 (strikeouts), 1 (HBP), 2 (sac flies), 3 (sac hits), 3 (grounded into double plays), 0 (stolen bases), 0 (caught stealing), .284 (batting average).
Advanced statistics:
2009: 1.9 % (BB %), 15. 7 % (K %), 0.13 (K/BB), .284 (batting average), .295 (OBP), .324 (slugging), .619 (OPS), -0.39 (ISO), 1.6 (SPD), .329 (BABIP), 8.0 (wRC), -4.8 (wRAA), .274 (wOBA).
Batted Ball statistics:
2009: .329 (BABIP), 2.37 (GB/FB), 26.4 % (LD %), 51.7 % (GB %), 21.8 (FB %), 5.3 %(IFFB %), 5.3 (HR/FB), 1 (IFH), 2.2 % (IFH %), 0 (BUH), 0 % (BUH %).
Value:
2009: -4.9 (batting), 3.5 (fielding), 3.6 (replacement), 0.4 (positional), 2.6 (RAR), 0.3 (WAR), $1.2 million (WAR in Dollars).
Win Probability:
2009: -0.26 (WPA), -1.63 (-WPA), 1.37 (+WPA), -2.34 (RE24), -0.25 (REW), 0.82 (pLI), 0 (PH), -0.42 (WPA/LI), 0.1 (Clutch).
Plate patience:
2009: 35 % (O-swing %), 64.1 (Z-swing %), 50.4 % (swing %), 72.6 % (O-contact %), 88.2 % (Z-contact), 83.1 % (contact %), 52.8 % (zone %), 64.5 % (F-strike %).
Fielding:
2009: 210 (innings), 44 (PO), 65 (assists), 3 (Errors), 9 (double plays turned), 0.973 (fielding percentage), 4.4 (RF/G), 4.7 (RF/9), 24 (DG), 56 (exO), -0.5 (DPR), 3 (RngR), 1 (ErrR), 3.5 (UZR), 21.9 (UZR/150).
Bill James Projections:
2010: 138 (games), 539 (AB), 155 (hits), 35 (doubles), 2 (triples), 8 (home runs), 67 (runs), 56 (RBI), 71 (runs created), 4.78 (RC/27), 29 (walks), 76 (strikeouts), 4 (stolen bases), 2 (caught stealing), .670 (stolen base %), .288 (batting average), .329 (OBP), .404 (slugging), .733 (OPS).
Remember '51 Analysis
Offensively:
Sanchez is a contact hitter, but not necessarily a "smart" contact hitter. While Sanchez most likely will hover around the .275-.315 range in terms of batting average, his low walk rates (1.5 percent last season) and OBP (.295 in 2009) make him a risky hitter to have. Furthermore, Sanchez doesn't seem to understand the strike zone very well as evidenced by him swinging at 35 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (third highest on the team, behind Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina). And, to make his situation offensively worse, Sanchez has no power. He had only one home run last year as a Giant, and his sub .300 slugging wasn't good.
Sanchez's strength seems to be groundball singles. He has a high GB rate (51. 7 percent) and a high BABIP (.329). Therefore, he is gong to be a guy that will put the ball in play. However, his BABIP will determine whether or not he has a breakout or mediocre season. If the groundballs aren't getting through, he looks like a pretty pedestrian player rather than a two-time All-Star.
Sanchez isn't a terrible offensive player by any means. His strikeout rate is respectable (15.7 percent) -- though it doesn't help his K/BB ratio (0.13), which suffers greatly from his lousy walk rate. Furthermore, he will be a tough out at the plate because he makes contact well (83.1 contact rate). That being said, his offensive value doesn't look good on paper (-4.9) because he lacks power (-0.39 ISO, rare for an All-Star player not named Walt Weiss) and just doesn't seem to draw walks or show much patience at the plate.
Defensively:
Sanchez is solid defensively on paper. He had a high UZR (3.5), UZR/150 (21.9) RF (4.4) and RF/9 (4.7). Those were the highest numbers of any Giants second baseman in those categories. Thus, it is easy to see why he won a Gold Glove in his tenure with Pittsburgh, and sports a respectable value defensively (3.5).
There are some concerns though with Sanchez going into 2010. His double play rate leaves a little to be desired at -0.5. It especially looks bad when Kevin Frandsen and Matt Downs have better double play rates (0.4 and 0, respectively). Also, his RngR in 2009 didn't look hot at 3, and in 2010 may look worse considering the two surgeries Sanchez had this off-season.
Contract:
The Giants re-signed Sanchez for two years at six million per year this off-season. Though it is not a bad as the $8.1 million the Giants would have had to pay had he reached 500 PA last season, the Giants certainly got a bit swindled. His WAR converted to dollars last season was only $1.2 million. Thus, the Giants overpaid Sanchez by at least $3-4 million. With Orlando Hudson still on the market, chances are the Giants could have signed him at a much better deal (one year, $3-5 million) and probably get similar to better success at the second base position with Hudson.
Outlook for 2010:
Pre-injuries, Bill James' projections weren't all that great. His sub .300 OBP and sub .740 OPS didn't bode well for a team that ranked last in those categories in 2009. If Sanchez is going to be an All-Star for a second straight year, he's going to need a lot of help from his BABIP, which needs to be high in order to counteract Sanchez's lack of plate patience.
Defensively, I wouldn't expect a Gold Glove-caliber season out of Sanchez, especially after two major surgeries in less than six months. Giants fans should expect Sanchez to regress defensively from a season ago.
Remember '51 Grade: C+
Sanchez is a solid contact hitter and fielder, but lackluster plate patience, lack of power and injury problems severely downgrade his value as a Major League player. Sanchez will be lucky to touch his first half numbers from Pittsburgh a year ago, especially after his latest surgery, which will keep him out of Spring Training and perhaps Opening Day.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
The San Francisco Giants "Prospectus" Project
Call me crazy. Call me nerdy. Call me insane. Whatever. I know the average baseball fan doesn't care about advanced statistical analysis. I know everyone thinks Sabermetrics is for geeks who don't watch the games. I know projections rarely ever live up to EXACT fruition.
Like I said before...whatever.
I have the time. I have the energy. I have the resources.
So, I'm starting a San Francisco Giants prospectus.
Granted, this is a very personal prospectus. It includes everything from batted ball analysis, win probability, advanced stats, plate patience, pitch type, etc. And that's not all. I have roster lists, contract information (thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts!), and this year's Bill James Projections (I had to splurge $9.95 on Yahoo for it, but you know what, it's worth it considering what you get).
Of course, this is all on excel sheets and paper right now. So, basically, the only one seeing this prospectus is me, KOB, the author of Remember '51. However, leading up to Spring Training and in the course of the season, I expect to use notes I write in my prospectus "notebook" as posts on this blog. Anything sabermetrically from now on will not just be exclusive to this blog. It will be in handwriting first, in a big purple notebook before I write it here on this blog.
So, does that mean I'm going to be another blog with only sabermetrics baseball angles? No, not really. I will continue to try to be pessimistic and humorous with some posts, be it the Remembering the Great '08 series or just other crazy thoughts in general. However, I think this Prospectus is worth noting because it is an ambitious project and I think it will give some insight to some of the future analytical pieces I will be writing in the future.
But like I said, the posts from now on just won't be from a Saber-slant. I will have articles that will go beyond all statistical and general baseball reasoning. After all, I am half-Filipino and half-Irish, and that mix doesn't make a whole hell of a lot of sense either. I might as well translate that into my baseball writing as well from time to time.
Crazy, irrational, "What the hell does that have to do with Giants baseball?" thought for today? Who would win in a fight? Eugenio Velez or Juan Uribe? Honestly, I don't know. I love the possibilities. On a Giants-fan-level, I would liken the fight to the first Clubber Lang-Rocky fight from Rocky III. Not exactly a fight everyone expects, and probably a lot shorter than we would all want, but there would be fireworks.
The Genie vs. Big Juan. I'm more excited for that than the Manny Pacquiao-Joshua Clottey fight in March.
Like I said before...whatever.
I have the time. I have the energy. I have the resources.
So, I'm starting a San Francisco Giants prospectus.
Granted, this is a very personal prospectus. It includes everything from batted ball analysis, win probability, advanced stats, plate patience, pitch type, etc. And that's not all. I have roster lists, contract information (thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts!), and this year's Bill James Projections (I had to splurge $9.95 on Yahoo for it, but you know what, it's worth it considering what you get).
Of course, this is all on excel sheets and paper right now. So, basically, the only one seeing this prospectus is me, KOB, the author of Remember '51. However, leading up to Spring Training and in the course of the season, I expect to use notes I write in my prospectus "notebook" as posts on this blog. Anything sabermetrically from now on will not just be exclusive to this blog. It will be in handwriting first, in a big purple notebook before I write it here on this blog.
So, does that mean I'm going to be another blog with only sabermetrics baseball angles? No, not really. I will continue to try to be pessimistic and humorous with some posts, be it the Remembering the Great '08 series or just other crazy thoughts in general. However, I think this Prospectus is worth noting because it is an ambitious project and I think it will give some insight to some of the future analytical pieces I will be writing in the future.
But like I said, the posts from now on just won't be from a Saber-slant. I will have articles that will go beyond all statistical and general baseball reasoning. After all, I am half-Filipino and half-Irish, and that mix doesn't make a whole hell of a lot of sense either. I might as well translate that into my baseball writing as well from time to time.
Crazy, irrational, "What the hell does that have to do with Giants baseball?" thought for today? Who would win in a fight? Eugenio Velez or Juan Uribe? Honestly, I don't know. I love the possibilities. On a Giants-fan-level, I would liken the fight to the first Clubber Lang-Rocky fight from Rocky III. Not exactly a fight everyone expects, and probably a lot shorter than we would all want, but there would be fireworks.
The Genie vs. Big Juan. I'm more excited for that than the Manny Pacquiao-Joshua Clottey fight in March.
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