tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57236104063798248872024-03-21T22:22:38.216-07:00Remember '51 - An often biased look at baseball and the SF GiantsKevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.comBlogger330125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-31779760409594694022020-02-05T18:08:00.003-08:002020-02-05T18:08:56.900-08:00The Giants did it…they freaking did it…VICTORY!!! (Memories from the 2010 World Series)<div class="graf graf--p" name="1fc2">
I just have to write. I’m a wreck. I’m enthralled. I’m weeping. I’m shaking.</div>
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The Giants won the World Series. Nothing can bring this down. Nothing. Everything else is secondary to this feeling. After all those years. All those years where it was disappointment after disappointment. 1962. 1987. 1989. 1993. 1997. 2000. 2002. 2003. The putrid period that was 2004–2008. Armando Benitez. Solomon Torres. Scott Spiezio. Pro Player Park. K-Rod. That damn Rally Monkey. Benny Agbayani. Bobby Jones. Felix Rodriguez melting down. The Florida Marlins. The New York Yankees. Willie McCovey coming up just a couple of feet short. The Atlanta Braves coming back. The St. Louis Cardinals. Steve Finley as a Dodger. Steve Finley as a Giant.</div>
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The Ghosts are gone. On All Saints day. It seems fitting. It seems right. And I couldn’t be more thankful to God, Buddha, Allah, Krishna, Joseph Smith, Xerxes, the Spartans that beat Xerxes’ army in “300” and whatever Shintoists believe in. I’m just on a high. I’m on a high, a cloud, and the powers that be couldn’t have been more generous.</div>
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It’s strange to be at this feeling. People know how much of a Giants fan I am. People know what I went through when I started writing about the Giants on a regular basis starting last year, the summer before I entered the novitiate. Some people will thank my fandom is crazy, over-the-top, perhaps even stupid. But it isn’t. Being a fan is a marriage. A REAL fan too. Not somebody who just picks a team because they are hot or they are good. Being a real fan is like committing to someone. You know their faults, you know they are going to disappoint you more often than not, and you know that your loyalty will put you in situations you don’t want to be in when you have had too many Whiskey sours (cough…Tattle Tale room…cough). And yet, you have to do this. In order to experience this kind of payoff, this kind of feeling, emotion, you need to commit to a team in terms of a matrimonial relationship. Or else, there’s no point in being a fan, there’s no reason in following sports.</div>
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When the Giants started the season, I felt the marriage hitting a skid. I loved what they did last year. I loved Pablo Sandoval. I loved Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson (for better and worse). And yet, I just didn’t see this team make improvements. We signed a guy coming off his worst statistical year in his career. We signed two guys who were coming off major injuries. We had a catcher who was blocking our catcher of the future, and a run of the mill starter blocking our pitcher of the future behind Lincecum and Cain.</div>
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I wasn’t giving up, but I was pessimistic. Giants fans usually are. We know that whenever there is hope (e.g. 2004 when we signed a “closer” in Benitez), the Gods have had a custom of crushing us down. And it seemed to be that way to start the year. The Giants at one point in June were in fourth place in the National League. The pitching looked to be mortal. Pablo looked liked Randall Simon (e.g. not good) and it just looked like another disappointing year, much like 2004 or 1998, when we were coming off hopeful seasons the previous season.</div>
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And something changed. As soon as I started following the Giants less (not by chance mind you) the Giants started winning. I was working in a summer camp where I had no TV or Internet access and the Giants had their best month of July since 2000. I had been entrenched in my work here at Red Cloud when they came up hot in September. The Giants just kept doing it and doing it, right when I was less and less involved and thus, I started to believe “Crap! I’m jinxing them when I watch them! I better watch from afar!”</div>
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And I couldn’t keep away this postseason though. After watching the first couple of games on the gamecast, I started watching the games again. I had to. And they did it. Cody Ross became a stud. Edgar Renteria became a stud. Madison Bumgarner proved Spring Training doesn’t mean jack. And Rob Neyer became the most asinine baseball analyst in America after he continued to defend the Phillies and Rangers with each loss. (“The Giants are just getting lucky!”)</div>
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Baseball is a funny game. Following a sports team is a funny thing too. It’s amazing how you can find your life correlating with the sports team you follow. You feel pain when they experience pain. You feel anguish when they falter. And yet, you also share in the joys. I feel like the Giants are almost my family, the family that I’m so connected with, that they make or break me depending on how they do. You should have seen me in June. The Giants were miserable, and by some strange cosmic fate, I was also miserable in my own life. And yet, they picked me up. The Giants gave a pessimistic, “waiting for doom” person like me hope to believe in things, believe in life and believe in miracles and the underdog. They made me believe in things like luck, picking yourself up and proving people wrong. They made me believe that confidence isn’t a bad thing as long as you do it the right way. And they made me believe that life…is surprising, a rollercoaster, but worth the ride at the same time. I just keep thinking about the line from the Grandma in “Parenthood”:</div>
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“[The Rollercoaster] goes up and down, side to side, all over the place. I have never experienced something so terrifying in my life. All my brothers and sisters…they went on the merry-go-round. All that does is go up and down. Nothing exciting about that. I’ll take the rollercoaster.”</div>
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That’s not just Giants baseball. It’s life. Giants baseball has been my symbol, my hope for life. Because sure, you experience things like Game 6 in Anaheim. You experience Barry Zito getting $126 million dollars. You experience Agbayani hitting a game-winning homer and never doing anything in his career ever again. But then you have this…a World Series. A world series ring. And I was alive to see it.</div>
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Sure, I know what it means to SF. I know a lot of Giants fans have been living a lot longer than I have. But I’m going to be selfish here. It means something more to me. I have almost a month left here at Red Cloud and on the Rez. Anything can happen, both good or bad and who knows, maybe I’ll hit that bad streak awful soon.</div>
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But I’ll just think of tonight. Lincecum’s gem. Renteria’s home run. Wilson striking out Cruz to end the game on a 3–2 count.</div>
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And I’ll feel okay. I won’t feel doom about whatever the situation is, because it’ll remind me that despite all the bad times and crap we go through in life, there is hope and there is promise and there is joy.</div>
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Who says sports can’t teach us things?</div>
Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-5004829269186671752019-05-03T06:43:00.001-07:002019-05-03T06:43:37.238-07:00Appreciating the Final Days of Bumgarner as a GiantGiants Ace Madison Bumgarner is still a Giant. Yes, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://aroundthefoghorn.com/2019/04/30/san-francisco-giants-madison-bumgarner-landing-spots/" href="https://aroundthefoghorn.com/2019/04/30/san-francisco-giants-madison-bumgarner-landing-spots/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">there are rumors swirling more than ever</a>, especially as the Giants sit in last place in the NL West at 13–18 as of May 1st, and sport the worst offense in all of baseball, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d" href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d" rel="noopener" target="_blank">according to wRC+</a>. But as of now, Bumgarner is still the Giants’ best pitcher in the rotation, and arguably the best and biggest superstar on the Giants roster as of this moment (the only other competition may be battery mate Buster Posey). MadBum will bring Giants fans to the stadium, and not only will he perform, but he will also ignite memories of a Giants past that was a lot more successful and memorable.<br />
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Last night fit that bill perfectly, as Bumgarner went six innings, and struck out eight Dodger hitters, while only allowing four hits, two walks, and a run on 114 pitches. It was classic Bumgarner, what Giants fans have been used to for about a decade: not exactly the prettiest, not perfect, but still solid when it mattered most. And as usual, Bumgarner did it on the big stage, against Giants fans’ most hated opponent at Oracle Park.</div>
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Bumgarner didn’t get the win (per usual this year, the offense couldn’t back up the Giants’ stellar pitching), but it was a nice showcase for the 29-year-old ace, who showed that despite injury issues the past couple of years, he can still bring it and compete at the highest level. And while that is nice for Giants fans who may still hold onto the glimmer of hope that the organization can still stay in the playoff race (after all…we’ve only been a month into the season), it is more relevant to other organizations in baseball: Bumgarner is available, he is in the last year of his deal, and he can still perform against the best teams in baseball.</div>
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As he walked off the mound after finishing the sixth inning, you could sense that this performance may be the beginning of the end for MadBum in the black and orange. With pitching a premium around the league, and more crucial than ever for playoff qualification as well as success, there are not many pitchers on the market who are as affordable and reputable as Bumgarner. And for the Giants, with a terrible offense, an aging roster, and a thin farm system, getting some kind of return to booster this organization from the bottom up is more important than ever for new head honcho Farhan Zaidi, who was hired as Bobby Evans’ replacement to breathe new life in San Francisco. It won’t be a matter of “if” Bumgarner will be traded…more like a matter of “when.”</div>
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And it’s bittersweet because Bumgarner has been one of the best Giants pitchers…well…ever.</div>
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<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEU_enUS821US821&ei=Rw3LXKcgiqj9BrXfnOAB&q=barry+bonds+retirement&oq=barry+bonds+retirement&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i70i251j0j0i22i30l8.88841.91570..92128...0.0..0.113.1869.21j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i131j0i67j0i131i67.ResPbzGyp-0" href="https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEU_enUS821US821&ei=Rw3LXKcgiqj9BrXfnOAB&q=barry+bonds+retirement&oq=barry+bonds+retirement&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i70i251j0j0i22i30l8.88841.91570..92128...0.0..0.113.1869.21j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i131j0i67j0i131i67.ResPbzGyp-0" rel="noopener" target="_blank">After Barry Bonds’ “retirement” in 2007</a>, the Giants put a premium on developing the pitching, which never was “great” during Bonds’ tenure in the Bay Area (unless you consider Livan Hernandez and Shawn Estes “great”). The “swing for the fences” approach provided some fireworks and storylines during the Bonds era, but often it failed to lead to much significant or consistent regular season and postseason success. Then general manager at the time, Brian Sabean, shifted the Giants’ focus from offense (relying on aging power vets like Bonds and Moises Alou, for example, failed to get the Giants a World Series title) to pitching and defense (to prevent runs in Oracle Park’s spacious outfield) and can be credited for developing a home-grown rotation and plucky, on the cheap bullpen that set up their three-World-Series run from 2010–2014.</div>
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The shift in organizational approach started with <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainma01.shtml" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainma01.shtml" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Matt Cain</a>, who went 13–12 as a rookie in 2005, and ended up being a workhorse for the Giants for nearly a decade en route to three All-Star appearances (2009, 2011, 2012). Then “The Freak” <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Tim Lincecum</a> joined him, earning back-to-back Cy Young awards in 2008 and 2009 while helping the Giants go from cellar-dweller to playoff contender. And while those two aces certainly experienced incredible high’s as Giants, it wasn’t until <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Bumgarner came along in 2010</a> (he debuted in 2009, but his first full season wasn’t until 2010) that the rotation really solidified and the Giants became the NL West juggernaut that they were from 2010–2016.</div>
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While Cain and Lincecum had more regular season brass and accolades (the highest Bumgarner ever finished in the Cy Young standings was fourth in 2014 and 2016), no other pitcher in the Giants organization was more valuable. From 2011–2016, Bumgarner was the ninth most valuable pitcher in baseball, according to WAR. Take a look at the chart below, and you can see that Bumgarner, though he has not won a Cy Young in his career, is up there statistically with past Cy Young winners such as the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, Nationals’ Max Scherzer, and Mariners’ Felix Hernandez, just to name a few.</div>
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Since 2016, it has been a rougher patch for Bumgarner, as injuries limited him to only 40 starts and 240 innings in 2017 and 2018 combined (he had no fewer than 32 starts and 204 innings every season from 2011 to 2016). Of course, he’s not alone in the Giants rotation when it comes to problems: big free agent pickup <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2019/4/30/18524650/johnny-cueto-begins-throwing-program-following-tommy-john-surgery" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2019/4/30/18524650/johnny-cueto-begins-throwing-program-following-tommy-john-surgery" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Johnny Cueto has also struggled to stay healthy</a> (he missed most of last year due to arm issues, and will miss most, if not all, of this year due to Tommy John surgery), and Jeff Samardzija has struggled with inconsistency (15 losses in 2017; a 5.44 FIP in 2018). But despite the health question marks, Bumgarner still flashes that 2011–2016 self more often than not: he had a 3.32 and 3.26 ERA in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and though his ERA is higher in 2019 than the previous two years (3.92), his FIP is actually better (3.26), a reverse from the previous two seasons where his FIP (3.99 and 3.95, respectively) was higher than his ERA the past two seasons. If Bumgarner continues to pitch like last night, it will only be a matter of time before his ERA regresses closer to his career average (3.06).</div>
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But then again, Bumgarner probably won’t be around long enough in San Francisco for Giants fans to see it get there this season.</div>
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The Giants’ farm system, by all means, is “thin” to put it nicely, a “mess” to put it negatively. <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.mlb.com/news/farhan-zaidi-takes-giants-job-c300339326" href="https://www.mlb.com/news/farhan-zaidi-takes-giants-job-c300339326" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Zaidi was hired</a> to rehaul the organization from the inside-out, and present a different approach from his predecessor, Bobby Evans, who preferred to spend big money on veterans to keep their playoff window “alive” regardless of cost or harm to the Giants’ future. Though Zaidi worked in a Dodgers organization that also had a big checkbook, the Dodgers, led chiefly by former Rays guru Andrew Friedman, sports a more balanced approach when it comes to roster organization: yes they pay for big free agents, but they also pay and develop their farm system well, and it’s paying off with “wunderkinds” such as Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Kike Hernandez mashing the Dodgers into championship contention again in 2019. Zaidi played a critical role in the development of the Dodgers while in the front office, and how successful he’ll be as the Giants’ top executive will hinge on not only how he deals with the albatross row of contracts regarding Evan Longoria, Cueto, Samardzija, Brandon Crawford, and even Buster Posey to an extent, but also if he can find a similar “youth movement” formula in San Francisco that has been so successful in Los Angeles.</div>
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But you can only develop a farm system (<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/owenpoindexter/2019/03/04/how-the-san-francisco-giants-can-restock-the-farm-system/" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/owenpoindexter/2019/03/04/how-the-san-francisco-giants-can-restock-the-farm-system/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">ranked near the bottom by most major prospect publication</a>s) in a few ways: the draft (which they have done with 2018 #2 pick and catcher <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bart--000joe" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bart--000joe" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Joey Bart</a>, who may be the heir apparent to Posey); international signings (the Giants have a slew of international guys ranked highly in their system with high upside, but are high-risk, such as outfielders <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=canari000ale" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=canari000ale" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Alex Canario </a>and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rincon000die" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rincon000die" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Diego Rincones</a>); or trade. And when it comes to the latter, Bumgarner has to be the piece: he’s proven, he’s affordable, and he, much to the dismay of Giants fans who latched on during their three-World-Series-run, doesn’t play into the Giants’ future plans. Zaidi needs Bumgarner to bring back a decent package, a decent group of prospects who will make their minor league organization better and thus, a more competitive club in the next three-to-five years.</div>
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So how do we, as Giants fans, deal with these final days of MadBum? Do we grumble over what could have been? (What if Bryce Harper signed with San Francisco instead of Philly?) Do we blame the “Moneyball” influence of baseball that prioritizes “value” over “legacy” in the present moment? Do we blame Bruce Bochy for working him too hard during that 2016 season, which could have led to injury-affected campaigns the following two years, where the Giants ended up playing themselves out of contention and into mediocrity?</div>
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You could…it’s possible that you can go even further with the gripes, really. It’s an endless list. There’s a lot to be frustrated about as a Giants fan, and nothing will be more frustrating to see Bumgarner leading another club to postseason success like he did in 2010, 2012 and 2014.</div>
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But for the time being…enjoy him. Enjoy him beating the Dodgers. Enjoy him keeping the Giants’ season at times somewhat competitive and entertaining when he’s on the bump. Enjoy him as one of the last remaining relics of what was a great era for Giants fans.</div>
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Because the bottoming out will come sooner than Giants fans think…and when it does…well…Giants ace Derek Holland going against Clayton Kershaw in Dodger Stadium won’t have the same kind of aura.</div>
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</section>Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-81007569564519222382012-04-23T06:00:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:53.028-07:00Poll Results: Diamondbacks Best Farm, Brown Giants Top ProspectSo, with the polls now closed, I figured it would be nice to recap some of the polls and kind of throw my own two cents on the results. A couple of new polls will be up this week, so it'll be more fodder for people to play with here on the blog.<br /><br /><br /><b>Question 1: Who has the Best Farm System in the NL West?</b><br /><br /><i>San Francisco Giants</i>: 8 votes (30 percent)<br /><i>Arizona Diamondbacks</i>: 10 votes (38 percent)<br /><i>Colorado Rockies</i>: 2 votes (7 percent)<br /><i>Los Angeles Dodgers</i>: 0 votes (0 percent)<br /><i>San Diego Padres</i>: 6 votes (23 percent)<br /><br /><i>Total votes</i>: 26<br /><br /><b>OTF's Take</b>: With pitchers Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley heading the list, it makes sense why the Diamondbacks were voted with having the best system in the NL West. Initially, I put the Padres because I liked the Yonder Alonso-Yasmani Grandal combo, but in terms of top-end talent, the Padres do compare in comparison to the Diamondbacks. Considering the need for pitching and the ballpark factors that favor hitters, legitimate pitching prospects are a need in the Arizona system, and they seem to have that in the three-headed monster of Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley.<br /><br />The Giants got a lot of votes, but I'm not sure they would have gotten so many had this been a neutral-site. I like Gary Brown and Joe Panik, but beyond that and the system is very questionable. I would argue that the Rockies have the third best system in the NL West with the Giants following very closely behind. That being said, a lot of the prospects in the Giants system are pretty raw, so I think the Giants could pull into third place should they get some solid performances from some guys in the lower minors.<br /><br />As for the Dodgers, they're the best team in the NL West right now (no thanks to Matt Kemp), but the system is looking thin with the graduation of Kenley Jansen, Javy Guerra and Dee Gordon. Zach Lee is a legit prospect, but he seems a few years away and after Lee, their system is pretty questionable. With a new ownership group though, I expect that to change dramatically in the next couple of years.<br /><br /><br /><b>Question No. 2: Who is the Giants' No. 1 Prospect in 2012?</b><br /><br /><i>Gary Brown</i>: 31 votes (72 percent)<br /><i>Joe Panik</i>: 2 votes (4 percent)<br /><i>Tommy Joseph:</i> 2 votes (4 percent)<br /><i>Heath Hembree</i>: 3 votes (6 percent)<br /><i>Andrew Susac</i>: 1 vote (2 percent)<br /><i>Francisco Peguero</i>: 0 votes (0 percent)<br /><i>Kyle Crick</i>: 1 vote (0 percent)<br /><i>Eric Surkamp</i>: 2 votes (4 percent)<br /><i>Other</i>: 2 votes (4 percent)<br /><br /><i>Total votes</i>: 43<br /><br /><br /><b>OTF's Take</b>: Not a big surprise here considering Brown is the consensus top prospect according to almost every publication and blog (with Seedlings 2 Stars being the lone exception; they rank Surkamp higher than Brown which to me, is ridiculous). At 72 percent, it is obvious that Giants fans are as hopeful as most analysts out there when it comes to Brown's future. He's off to a slow start, but even now, Brown still remains the Giants' best prospect by a wide margin.<br /><br />Hembree comes in at second with three votes and with the injury to Brian Wilson, Hembree could see some time in the Giants bullpen by June. He already made the transition to Fresno a couple of weeks ago, so it's obvious that the Giants are looking for him to contribute to the Big League club sooner rather than later. Panik, Joseph and Surkamp come in at second with two votes each and Susac and Crick follow with one vote. The most surprising non-vote getter was Peguero who received none. I find this surprising because Jonathan Mayo ranked Peguero No. 99 in his Top-100 MLB prospects list going into 2012.<br /><br />In terms of the other, I'm guessing Ehire Adrianza and Hector Sanchez were the one who garnered the votes. I like both of them, but at the same time, they aren't in the same tier as Brown and not even in the same tier as Hembree, Panik and Joseph. That being said, Sanchez is holding his own as the Giants' backup catcher, so he's off to a good start to begin 2012, even if he is now technically graduated as a prospect.<br /><br /><br />Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-45720671872937351532012-04-22T13:16:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:53.272-07:00Can 2012 Be Bounce Back Campaigns for Juan Perez and Nick Noonan?Wow...12 days. Can't really apologize for that long a lay-off, especially considering my history (it would be like Rick Pitino apologizing for another relationship out of wedlock). But, with school being what it is here, and my responsibilities to Seedlings 2 Stars, posting here has been more difficult than usual. Hopefully though, I can get back into the swing of things here at OTF. I will be having a recap of general Minor League performances later this week, and should finish off the rankings for good. Of course, considering my inconsistencies with posting, I will make no guarantees (though I will make guarantees to bitch about how much I'm frustrated with the Brandon Belt situation on Twitter...sorry it couldn't be helped).<br /><br />Two players who have really jumped out to me to begin the year in 2012 are Juan Perez and Nick Noonan. Both were Top-30 prospects according to Baseball America going into 2011 who fell out of the rankings after lackluster years in Double-A Richmond. However, they have regrouped to have solid starts to begin the 2012 year and one has to wonder if they are in the process of regaining their once-lofty prospect statuses. That being said, are their starts legitimate signs of progress? Or are they just good months that are flashes in the pan?<br /><br />Let's take a look on the outlook for Perez and Noonan for the remainder of the season.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=perez-014jua"><b>Juan Perez, Outfielder</b></a><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 25<br /><b>Current Team</b>: Richmond Flying Squirrels<br /><br /><b>2012 numbers</b>: .317 average, .359 OBP, .400 slugging percentage, .759 OPS, 10 runs scored, one home run, three stolen bases, three walks, 14 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances (through 16 games).<br /><br /><br /><b>Why is Perez's Hot Start Promising?</b><br /><br />A late-blooming prospect (Perez didn't break into professional ball until he was 23), Perez has the makings of an Andres Torres-esque player (and I liked Torres a lot when he was a Giant). Despite his diminutive stature (he's five-feet, 11 inches and a 185 pounds), he sports decent pop in his bat (he hit 13 home runs in San Jose in 2010) and good speed on the basepaths (he stole 22 bases on 28 attempts in 2011 in Richmond). Even though he struggled in the transition from the California League to the Eastern League last year (he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances), he has bounced back in a repeat campaign this year, as he is sporting a slash of .317/.359/.400 through 17 games.<br /><br />With Gary Brown struggling on the offensive end, Perez has been the main catalyst for the Flying Squirrels offense, as he has scored 10 runs and stolen three bases on four attempts. He also has a home run and two doubles, a sign that the power that he displayed in the California League in 2010 wasn't a complete fluke. While it is still early in the year, the solid start in his second year in the EL, along with a good campaign in Spring Training bodes good things for Perez who fell off the radar after the 2011 season. If he continues to build on this solid start, he could be a candidate to move up to Fresno at some point this year, especially if someone gets injured in the Giants outfield.<br /><br /><br /><b>What Should Giants Fans Expect from Perez for the Remainder of 2012?</b><br /><br />Despite the gaudy slash line, Perez's performance has been far from perfect. The biggest concern has been his eye at the plate, which has been raw and unrefined as a professional. Last year, Perez posted a BB/K ratio of 0.29 and this year hasn't been better, despite his familiarity with Eastern League pitching. His BB/K ratio is currently 0.21, highlighted by 14 strikeouts. Add this with a contact rate of 76 percent, and one has to wonder if Perez will ever be able to make consistent enough contact as a professional to be a legitimate Major League player.<br /><br />That being said, those aspects were concerns of Torres as a professional. However, pre-injury, Torres was able to be a productive player for the Giants during their 2009 and 2010 campaigns. While Torres had a much more patient eye at the plate than Perez, he was also older (Torres was in his early thirties prior to his breakout) and actually was around the same percentage contact-wise. Sans his 2010 campaign in San Jose where he was caught 15 times on 32 attempts, Perez has sported solid speed and efficiency on the basepaths and could be at the very least a platoon player at the Major League level in addition being a solid pinch-running option off the bench. There still is a long way to go for Perez, but his solid April in Richmond is a promising start for the 25-year-old outfielder.<br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=noonan001nic"><b>Nick Noonan, Infielder</b></a><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 22<br /><b>Current Team:</b> Fresno Grizzlies<br /><br /><b>2012 numbers</b>: .333 average, .370 OBP, .381 slugging, .751 OPS, 5 runs scored, 1 stolen base, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances.<br /><br /><br /><b>Why is Noonan's Hot Start So Promising?</b><br /><br />Noonan was once a top prospect who held Chase Utley comparisons until he started struggling at the plate starting in 2009 in San Jose. After two lackluster campaigns in Richmond (his Double-A career slash is .226/.290/.297), the Giants decided to move Noonan up to Triple-A to give him a change of pace and scenery. So far, the move has paid off, as Noonan has put up a .751 OPS in 13 games (his previous high OPS was .727 in 2009 in San Jose).<br /><br />The biggest improvement for Noonan to begin the 2012 year has been his plate approach, as he is currently sporting a BB/K ratio of 0.75. Noonan has always produced good approaches at the plate, for he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.67 and 0.55 in San Jose and Richmond, respectively in 2011. However, considering his campaigns in San Jose and Richmond were repeats of those levels, the fact that he is carrying his disciplined approach to the next level is a promising sign. Furthermore, Noonan has displayed a strong ability to make contact against Pacific Coast League pitching, as his contact rate currently sits at 90 percent for the year. Considering that his career contact rate in Double-A was 78 percent, this is a nice indicator that Noonan is finally honing his approach and abilities at the plate after so many years of disappointing performances in the minors over his professional career.<br /><br /><br /><b>What Should Giants Fans Expect from Noonan for the Remainder of 2012?</b><br /><br />Despite Noonan's nice start at the plate, his defensive play has been a different story. With Charlie Culberson a mainstay at the keystone position and Conor Gillaspie holding down the hot corner, Noonan has flip flopped between shortstop and third base with the Grizzlies in 2012. However, the results have not been good, as he has committed four errors already and is sporting a fielding percentage of .852. If Noonan continues to hit, it is likely that he will get more playing time and thus more opportunities in the field, which naturally will raise his fielding percentage. That being said, Noonan hasn't showed the Giants brass or Grizzlies' coaching staff that his glove merits regular playing time at a certain position so far this year.<br /><br />Also, while Noonan is obviously performing much better in Triple-A than in Double-A, one has to wonder if his hot start is a true measure of improvement, or if it is proof of the old Brian Sabean-adage that "Triple-A Pitching isn't very good." While it is typical to see top position prospects see extended time in the PCL or IL (International League), the same doesn't ring true for pitchers, as top pitching prospects spend little to no time at all in Triple-A before they make the jump from Double-A to the Majors. Sure, Noonan may be hitting in Fresno, but he might be doing so against Quad-A pitchers or guys who are simply lifetime Minor Leaguers in the Matt Kinney and Kevin Pucetas mold. Hence, Noonan might be able to sustain the hot start he's built in 2012. Unfortunately, unless his glove work gets better, a solid 2012 campaign might not be a sign that he's ready for the Major Leagues, but rather an example of why PCL stats (especially ones in Fresno) should always be taken with a grain of salt.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-81325719671735158842012-04-09T06:00:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:53.426-07:00Around the Horn: S2S Opening Day Recaps, WTGCTT Lines, Age vs. Level at MCC, Giants Window at BTB, Advanced Stats at MLCHave a lot of work to catch up on, but wanted to do a quick post here at OTF. I just realized I haven't shot out a lot of links lately, and I figured it would be a good time to throw out some interesting pieces I have read over the past week and share it with people who follow it here. The list complies of a nice array of pieces from some Giants-centric, and just general baseball blogs out there on the Web.<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://seedlingstostars.com/">Seedlings 2 Stars Minor League Opening Day Coverage</a></b><br /><br />If you haven't checked it out on the blogroll, please check out the work at Seedlings 2 Stars. It's a Minor League blog run by the FanSided network. Wally Fish runs the baseball side of things and keeps things going at S2S, and they have some great writers who contribute to the site. Nathaniel Stoltz, whom I was a big fan of during his Bleacher Report days, used to write for the site and helped start it, but it seems like he has gone away from the site and is doing something different. Wally asked me to write for the site, and I have contributed three pieces so far: a look at the top Latin American <a href="http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/04/02/a-look-at-the-top-latin-american-position-prospects-in-the-nl-west/">position</a> and <a href="http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/04/07/a-look-at-the-top-latin-american-pitching-prospects-in-the-nl-west/">pitching</a> prospects from the NL West, and a <a href="http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/04/06/opening-day-recap-rainouts-dominate-opening-sally-slate/">Opening Day recap of the Sally.</a><br /><br />I'm still figuring out my role with the site (kinda tough to write as freely as I do here with so many other writers contributing and being new to the staff), but I expect to write 2-3 times a week for the site on general minor league and perhaps scouting stuff (I would like to delve into more foreign and Latin America scouting pieces, since it doesn't seem anybody on the site has claimed a stake or expertise in that area to my knowledge). So, for now, don't expect much "general" minor league or scouting stuff on this site for the time being (the DPL Profiles and Draft looks I'll probably save for S2S), but that could be a good thing as it will allow me to focus more on being "Giants-centric" here at OTF.<br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b><a href="http://whenthegiantscometotown.blogspot.com/">When the Giants Come to Town Begins It's Grind</a></b><br /><br />If you want to look at the most committed Giants blogger (and especially Minor League blogger on the net), look no further than Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town. With the start of the Minor and Major League seasons, Dr. B has started his daily recaps, which highlight top performers from every Giants Minor League team in action that night. While McCovey Chronicles does the same thing with <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/steve%20S">poster Steve S</a>, I really do enjoy Dr. B's take on the Minor League standouts each night. It has become daily reading for me, and definitely has made things easier here at OTF. Don't know how he manages to teach in college while still posting as much as he does!<br /><br /><br /><b>Age vs. Level by Roger at McCovey Chronicles (<a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2012/4/2/2918818/age-vs-level-some-actuarials">Part I</a> and <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2012/4/2/2920057/age-vs-level-some-actuarials-pt-2">Part II</a>)</b><br /><br />One of the most ambitious "Giants-centric" pieces I have read in a long time, this two-part series by Roger is so good that I am in the middle of reading it over again to sink it all in. Complete with thorough writing and graphs to back it up, Roger at McC takes a look at how teenagers who break in at A-Ball end up as Major League players in comparison to players who break into A-Ball at higher ages (such as college guys for example). It is an interesting piece to read, especially when you consider the Giants' draft strategy for the past decade or so (favoring low-ceiling, low-risk college guys in comparison to higher-ceiling, higher-risk teens). It isn't something that will take you a couple of minutes, but it's an engrossing read and one of the more enjoyable pieces on McCovey Chronicles I have encountered on the Fan Posts section in a long time.<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/4/4/2924472/a-graphic-look-at-the-window-to-win-san-francisco-giants">David Fung's "Visual Look" at the Giants Window to Compete at Beyond the Box Score</a></b><br /><br />I have loved Fung's graphical take on "the Window", which was a phrase used by Billy Beane explaining the Athletics plan and how their time to compete was in limited spurts during his tenure there due to the Small Market and limited budget (<a href="http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7422765/jonah-keri-looks-curtain-alleged-woes-mlb-second-class-franchises">Jonah Keri wrote an interesting piece on it for Grantland</a> that refuted Beane's position). Fung's graphs are always great, and the pieces give a nice general glance of what teams (the Giants in the case) will be dealing with not only now, but four to five years down the line. If you can, check out the others, just to see what the "windows" to compete are like for the other teams in Major League Baseball.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://minorleaguecentral.com/"><b>Minor League Central</b></a><br /><br />It kills me that I haven't found this site earlier, but Minor League Central is basically to Minor League Ball what Fangraphs is to Major League Ball. While the site's creators and analysts note that not all of the data is completely accurate (they are subject to the recorders of the numbers, whom they admit are less accurate at the lower levels), it does give a little bit more "advanced" numbers from players who are currently in the Minor Leagues. Expect me to use more numbers from MLC in future posts (though I have already started), and I can't begin to tell you how enthralled I am that a site like this exists on the Web. I'm about as excited as Chris Farley was when one of his "comrades" <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mKHrHB6ILM">told the "Sheep Pudding" story around the camp fire in the movie "Amost Heroes.</a>"Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-26798677763442436502012-04-08T15:36:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:53.582-07:00Season Preview: San Jose GiantsFirst off, yes, I'm posting on Easter. Which means one of four things:<br /><br />1.) I'm away from family and don't have enough money to make the trip back home by road or air<br />2.) I'm not religious, don't believe in Easter or any God for that matter and like to live a shallow life that is devoid of anything "spiritual."<br />3.) Am Jewish and celebrated Passover already.<br />4.) Am at home, but trying to avoid family because well...I'm just an anti-social kind of guy that would rather spend time in front of a computer than with family.<br /><br />Well, if you guessed one, you would be correct. Two or three wouldn't have been bad choices, simply because I never touch anything religious on this blog, so my religious views have been (and will remain) fairly ambiguous. And as for four, well...you just have to be a jerk to think that, so shame on you. I hope you feel better after you eat your Ham on Easter Sunday.<br /><br />Bitterness aside, on to the 2012 preview of the <a href="http://www.milb.com/index.jsp?sid=t476">San Jose Giants.</a><br /><br /><br /><b>2011 Recap:</b><br /><br />The San Jose Giants got off <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=5014a6aa">to a roaring start to begin the year</a>, as they finished the first half with an unreal record of 51-19, good for the best record in the Cal League overall at the time. The Giants finished the first half 13 games ahead of second place Stockton, and 16 games ahead of third place Bakersfield. Considering the Giants past history of success in the California League (they have been in the title hunt consistently the past five years), the Giants looked primed for another run at the CL championship in 2011.<br /><br />However, with the callups of <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDcQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Ddoming001chr&ei=XnCCT8vjOfPy2gXhuMCIBw&usg=AFQjCNFULIH6zuxO_i_dc4al4JKJ8jkWeg">Chris Dominguez</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDUQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dpeguer001fra&ei=cHCCT4X1IerM2AXntN2DBw&usg=AFQjCNFmwbARd_54YuYtiG7KiDbea33eEw">Francisco Peguero</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDoQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dhembre001ric&ei=gXCCT_uqE4WC2AXe9fDuBg&usg=AFQjCNHSI6nIa0mrJ6yzFa_hLHiB2vRxoQ">Heath Hembree</a> to Richmond by mid-season, a trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets (in the Carlos Beltran) and a mid-season slump by top prospect <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CEcQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dbrown-005gar&ei=j3CCT_7TH5Po2gW-yqnjBg&usg=AFQjCNHHX82Jc6eU6ezpcSa48hOGwi0tmA">Gary Brown</a>, the Giants regressed in the second half, going 38-32 over their next 70 games. The Giants did have a chance to win the Northern Division at the end of the year, but they ended up losing out to Stockton in the Northern Division Championship series. Still, at 90-50, it was an impressive year overall for the South Bay Giants, and the fans took notice, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=e699968f#league_fielding::none">as they finished with the second-best attendance in the Cal League</a>.<br /><br />Offensively, everything began and ended with Brown, whose strong campaign in the Cal League garnered him honors as the Giants' top prospect going into 2012 by almost every publication and analyst. Brown posted a slash of .336/.407/.519 and added a .925 OPS to go along with 14 home runs, 115 runs scored and 53 stolen bases. For his efforts, Brown was named the 2011 Cal League Rookie of the Year and also earned a spot in the Futures Game at All-Star Weekend.<br /><br />However, Brown wasn't the only bat that stood out in San Jose. Before getting call ups to Fresno and San Francisco, catcher Hector Sanchez went from middling catcher prospect to a Top-10 system guy after lighting up Cal League pitching in only 52 games. The 21-year-old Venezuelan put up a .302/.338/.533 line in 228 plate appearances and also added 11 home runs and 58 RBI to his already gaudy averages. Fellow countryman Ehire Adrianza sparked the Giants offense in the second half after Peguero and Dominguez moved up to Richmond, as the slick-fielding shorstop posted a career best slash of .300/.375/.470 in 262 plate appearances.<br /><br />While the offense was a force for San Jose in 2011, the pitching was sneakily good, even after they lost Wheeler in the Beltran trade. The Giants pitching staff finished first in the Cal League runs allowed per game at 4.21, which was 0.80 runs better than second place Stockton. San Jose also finished with the league's best team ERA at 3.70 (they were the only CL team under 4.00) and second-best WHIP at 1.33 (only .04 behind first-place Stockton).<br /><br />While Wheeler was the Giants' most dynamic pitcher in his tenure in San Jose (he struck out 98 in 88 innings pitched), he was far from the best pitcher statistically on the San Jose roster in 2011. The rotation was led by the three-headed-force of <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dwestco001cra&ei=pnCCT53TDaa42wXlwKWFBw&usg=AFQjCNEQ3Z6SwIaiW7BwGcWjqBOEf2WiNQ">Craig Westcott</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dheston001chr&ei=snCCT5TdCMfM2gXY0Pj2Bg&usg=AFQjCNEU_TxRhp1y7xp3pyTvehqpFJBrtw">Chris Heston</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CEEQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmarte-001kel&ei=w3CCT_XpLqeq2gWyg-ThBg&usg=AFQjCNH5QN1-Q3yuy1Eb9BcarA2HOHIm9Q">Kelvin Marte</a>, who all threw over 145 innings in 2011, and posted sub-4 ERAs (3.42, 3.16, 3.47, respectively). Though he finished a win behind Westcott in the W-L column, Heston was the most impressive of the three as he finished with the best K/BB ratio (3.28), K/9 (7.8), HA/9 (8.6) of the bunch. Heston was 23 years old last year, so he was around league average when it came to age (the average age of CL pitchers was 23.2 last year), but he certainly has the potential to be a strong contributor to the rotation in Richmond in 2012.<br /><br />After Hembree dominated the CL (21 saves, 0.73 ERA, 16.1 K/9) and predictably earned a call up to the Eastern League, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Ddunnin001jak&ei=93CCT4TGFKOG2gXU8JiaBw&usg=AFQjCNFvn35JGBqbPGhvh-9ReZp8l1TKwg">Jake Dunning</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dlively001mit&ei=A3GCT53VCKTe2QW385joBg&usg=AFQjCNEJuSP-zq18M-wT1cXhUHBkuOqvRw">Mitch Lively</a> split closer duties to mixed results. While Dunning did earn 10 saves, he posted a 4.74 ERA and allowed 10.2 hits per nine innings. While he did post solid K/BB ratios (2.96), Dunning has to improve his ability to limit contact if he wants to survive in the move to the Eastern League this upcoming season.<br /><br />As for Lively, though an older prospect at 25 years old, he finished the year with nice numbers, recording 8 saves and posting a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 38 appearances and 17 games finished. Lively will be 26 years old and will bypass Richmond and begin the year in Triple-A Fresno.<br /><br /><br /><b>Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?</b><br /><br />San Jose should be a nice showcase for 2011 Giants draft picks, as catcher <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&ved=0CGwQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmlb.mlb.com%2Fteam%2Fplayer.jsp%3Fplayer_id%3D572180&ei=FXGCT_LnBoq02gWpn-3vBg&usg=AFQjCNEvdlr8oqjvQld33gJQMmVcJBdDcg">Andrew Susac</a>, first baseman Ricky Oropesa, and first round pick, shortstop <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEUQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dpanik-000joe&ei=WnGCT5qCBoHE2wXk7a36Bg&usg=AFQjCNGLOTOKmcXq-tjz2uK5tE4oqKbPzA">Joe Panik</a> will all begin the year in the Cal League. So far, the results have been a little mixed for Oropesa and Susac, as they are batting .250 and .231 after three games, respectively. However, it is still VERY early in the season, and they could bounce those numbers up with a solid game today against Modesto.<br /><br />As for Panik, he is continuing where he left off in the Northwest League, as he is putting up a slash of .400/.538/.600 in 10 at-bats. Panik has recorded two doubles and three walks and no strikeouts going into today's game. As he showed last year in Salem Keizer, Panik's mature skills and approach has illustrated why the Giants took him in the first round of the draft last season (despite the scoffs of many scouts and experts). I expect Panik to really stand out this year and have a breakout season similar to Brown a year ago, though without the speed or home run numbers (though I think he could come close in the home runs and I think their slugging percentages will be similar because of Panik's ability to hit to the gaps).<br /><br />One of the big under-the-radar prospects to watch for San Jose is <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDEQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dduvall001ada&ei=bXGCT-ziMqSW2AXrhfWFBw&usg=AFQjCNGT4vJwFzG7JTGFZnLNj1bS7pWHTA">Adam Duvall</a>, who is coming off a sensational year in Augusta where he posted a .912 OPS to go along with 22 home runs. Duvall shares a similar prospect profile to Chris Dominguez in the sense that they are both from the University of Louisville and both third base prospects. While he doesn't have the athleticism or plus tools of Dominguez, Duvall's Sally numbers in 2011 were more impressive than Dominguez's 2010. While he hasn't gotten of to the best start (Duvall has struck six times in 12 at-bats and has no walks and only one hit), he could be a key component to this Giants offense in 2012.<br /><br />Another infield prospect to watch out for will be <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDMQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Djurica001car&ei=fXGCT6eGI4z-2QWRxNiYBw&usg=AFQjCNERa6K2M6E_OscvtsCtH-YpMqJInw">Carter Jurica</a>, a 2010 draft pick who split last year between the Arizona Rookie League and the Cal League. Jurica posted a .250/.355/.383 slash last year in San Jose, and also added four home runs and five stolen bases. Most of Jurica's value comes defensively, as he has been noted for his solid though unspectacular glove up the middle. He and Panik should provide a very interesting double play combo up the middle, and are expected to rotate between second and shortstop throughout the year.<br /><br />The outfield will be led <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CDQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dparker003jar&ei=jXGCT-DhFMTg2QWhr8nhBg&usg=AFQjCNHJ9AKZZAQ5pZpDuCE2bx2YzVw0ZA">Jarett Parker</a>, who'll be making his second tour of duty in the Cal League in 2012. While Parker displayed nice power potential (13 home runs), and a patient approach (.360 OBP, 0.51 BB/K ratio, 74 walks in 571 plate appearances), he struggled in terms of making consistent contact at the plate, as evidenced by his .260 average, 70 percent contact rate, and team-leading 144 strikeouts. I don't expect Parker to stay the whole year in San Jose, as I think he is due for a call up to Richmond at some point this year simply because of his age (he'll be 23). However, he does need to show progress at the plate in terms of making better contact if he wants to be taken more seriously as a prospect. Right now, his stock has regressed since he was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft, and he looks to be way behind outfielder prospects such as Brown and Peguero.<br /><br />The rest of the outfield looks pretty thin, as <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDkQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dlollis001rya&ei=o3GCT5PfDOSa2AWbgYGIBw&usg=AFQjCNE5GwzpH0d6cv3KhOJUP7gQKbAxhw">Ryan Lollis</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dlofton001chr&ei=t3GCT8DWGsHq2AWg_emRBw&usg=AFQjCNHk6MbbQqdHRMJKuHMrFaga5mAOvQ">Chris Lofton</a> will look to contribute to the Giants lineup. Lollis put up stellar numbers in Augusta last year, posting a slash of .314/.393/.422 and an OPS of .816 in .296 at-bats, but he struggled in call ups to San Jose and Richmond, posting OPS numbers of .627 and .444, respectively. Lofton is a strong athlete who was rated by Baseball America as being the best athlete of any Giants pick other than Brown in the 2010 draft. A ninth round pick, Lofton put up a pedestrian .615 OPS in 418 at-bats in Augusta. He did steal 22 bags with the Green Jackets, but he was caught 14 times, a sign that his instincts on the basepaths aren't that great and are in need of improvement in San Jose. However with his athleticism, Lofton has a lot of potential to be a contributor to this San Jose lineup in 2012.<br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CD0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dsanfor001sha&ei=yHGCT6abI-Xg2QXC2NGvBw&usg=AFQjCNFnnYbgN0uJ2L_VL2n9hHnuNgYMBg">Shawn Sanford </a>and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&sqi=2&ved=0CDwQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Drogers001tay&ei=13GCT-z-IILE2wWHorjzBg&usg=AFQjCNGWQNDt8iym7MqWJKh0B8nYy-DJ8A">Taylor Rogers</a> led the Green Jackets rotation in 2011 and will be expected to do the same in San Jose in 2012. Sanford's 10-10 record doesn't impress, but he did post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 3.57 in the Sally a year ago. Sanford's strength as a pitcher is his control, as he walked only 30 batters in 169.2 innings pitched (good for a BB/9 of 1.7). That being said, while his control, command and ability to keep the ball on the ground to limit hits has been impressive (1.69 GO/AO last year), he doesn't possess overwhelming stuff or strikeout prowess. Last year, his K/9 was only 5.7, a regression from the 8.6 mark he put up in 2010 in Salem Keizer. It'll be interesting to see how well he keeps batters at bay in the Cal League in 2012, especially considering the park factors and t he'll be around league average age-wise for a pitcher at 23 years old. He's off to a good start as he went six innings and allowed only three hits and no runs while walking one and striking out one in his debut start of the 2012 season (which resulted in a win for San Jose credited to Sanford).<br /><br />As for Rogers, while his 2012 debut wasn't as impressive as Sanford's (he went five innings and allowed seven hits, two runs and a walk; but he did strike out seven and earned the win), he does share a similar profile to Sanford as a pitcher, even though he is a year older. Much like Sanford, Rogers showed good command in Augusta last year (2.26 K/BB ratio) and a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground (2.11 GO/AO ratio last year with the Green Jackets). However, he doesn't blow away hitters (5.0 K/9) and he can prove to be quite hittable (career H/9 of 9.3). While Sanford's age and skills give him a little bit more upside, Rogers could prove to be a good No. 2 guy in the San Jose rotation in 2012.<br /><br />The Giants will have wild cards on the staff in <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDsQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dharrol001ste&ei=_HGCT-OVG6Xq2QWxzpzhBg&usg=AFQjCNGQDhl-IabQLD9RxQ4n5q-I0BK0Fg">Stephen Harrold,</a> <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDEQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Drosin-001set&ei=CXKCT7qfNsfM2AWBrLzxBg&usg=AFQjCNF-85IVEH4haPohKlgG2xqIKFUMEw">Seth Rosin</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&sqi=2&ved=0CGkQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dosich-001jos&ei=EnKCT-OyI8rs2QWzqviLBw&usg=AFQjCNEU053I0blzQjnUEnl6ZfT82m_rDw">Josh Osich</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CFIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseball-reference.com%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dconcep001edw&ei=KnKCT6rDAsbc2gXFo4SbBw&usg=AFQjCNHNYIhC1g3LQr6wI0UrP-HzqZf9dA">Edward Concepcion</a>, who will all be in the Giants bullpen to begin the year in 2012 (though Rosin and Osich have starter potential). Harrold was rated as the 25th best prospect in the Giants system, according to Baseball America, and Rosin is a power-armed right hander who has cracked the Top 30 in many lists. Both have showed a strong ability to strike batters out over the course of their minor league careers (Harrold has a minor league career K/9 of 9.3 while Rosin is just a notch below at 9.2), but they don't have very high ceilings as older, polished arms out of college.<br /><br />Osich is a big wild card because it is unknown if the Giants will keep him in the bullpen or if they might move him into the rotation eventually. Osich started in college at Oregon State (and excelled as he threw a no-hitter against UCLA last year), but he had arm issues that could have been related to TJ surgery in 2009 (which forced him to miss 2010) and was shut down for the remainder of the 2011 season (which ended hurting his draft stock as he fell to the Giants' slot in the sixth round; he originally had first round/supplemental round potential pre-shut down). While it is probably wise to ease Osich into professional pitching by keeping him in the pen to begin the year, I do hope Giants management somehow works him into the rotation at some point this year. He has the ability to start, as evidenced by his track record in college, along with a repertoire that includes a solid fastball that touches 97 MPH, and a slider and changeup that have average to slightly above potential. A move of Osich to the rotation would increase his value significantly, and make him a steal as a sixth-round selection.<br /><br />A sleeper out of the bullpen to watch out for is Concepcion, as he has showed a strong ability to strike batters out (career 9.1 K/9), but has had significant command and control issues as well. After a disastrous stint in the Northwest League which saw him post a 6.39 ERA and K/BB ratio of 1.24 (a minor league career low, and that includes his stint in the DSL) in 63.1 IP as a starter, Concepcion bounced back with a move to the pen in Augusta and posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.72 K/BB ratio in 52.1 IP. Concepcion still walked hitters in bunches (6.2 BB/9), but he did strike out 10.7 batters per nine innings, his best total in that category since his stint in the Arizona Rookie League (when it was 11.5). If Concepcion can harness his control even a little bit, he could be a very valuable arm in the San Jose bullpen this year, and could see his stock as a prospect rise by the end of the season simply because of his ability to strike batters out.<br /><br /><br /><b>What Should We Expect from the Giants in 2012?</b><br /><br />San Jose has been one of the strengths in the Giants' system "team-wise" for a while. They have consistently competed for Cal League titles while at the same time developing talent that has progressed nicely in their system. Of course, it's always tough to judge prospects (hitters especially) in the Cal League because of the offensive-friendly park factors. We have seen many hitters mash in the Cal League, only to be fully exposed in their transition to the Double-A Eastern League. This year, the offense will attract a lot of attention, especially with 2011 Draft picks Panik, Susac and Oropesa expected to get a lot of at-bats. Past those though (and maybe Duvall), the talent offensively does drop off quite a bit. I'm not a big believe in Lofton, and Jurica seems to be backup material at the Major League level at best. Furthermore, the pitching seems less strong in comparison to years past, as the staff lacks that front line starter they've sported in years past (Wheeler last year, Surkamp two years ago, Bumgarner and Alderson in 2009).<br /><br />I think San Jose has produced a clubhouse environment where the team will always be competitive and I don't expect that to stop in 2012. However, considering how reliant they will be on offense (and considering this is Susac and Oropesa's first exposure to professional pitching, that's a big risk), and how thin the pitching looks, I expect a big regression for the CL Giants in 2012 from their 90-50 record a year ago.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-17807482565132177082012-04-06T15:52:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:53.741-07:00Season Preview: Augusta Green JacketsWith Opening Day happening across the Minor League yesterday, I figured it would be good to take a look at what Giants fans could expect from the teams in the Giants organization. I'm going to start with the lower levels first and move my way up. Since the Arizona Rookie League, the Northwest League and Dominican Summer League don't start until later in the season, I'm going to start with the Giants' Sally team, the <a href="http://www.milb.com/index.jsp?sid=t478">Augusta Green Jackets</a>.<br /><br /><br /><b>2011 Recap:</b><br /><br />It was a <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=d9e22cf9">tale of two seasons for the Green Jackets</a>, as they got off to a slow start in 2011. They finished the first half 31-39, good for fifth place in the Southern Division. However, a couple of roster moves and some better play sparked them in the second half, as they finished with the best record in the Southern Division after the break at 39-29. While they still finished behind the Savannah Sand Gants (the Mets organization) in the overall standings, the 70-68 record was still a promising end for a team that had its share of struggles in the beginning of the year.<br /><br />The Green Jackets relied on their pitching as they finished sixth best in the league in runs allowed per game at 4.43 and fourth in ERA at 3.70. <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dsanfor001sha&sa=U&ei=gtR_T5bMEMjs2gWcsISXBw&ved=0CB4QFjAA&usg=AFQjCNE1CYSWcc2BwqnwX_EbnlSIsgOP-A">Shawn Sanford</a>, Stan Rogers and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dkickha001mic&sa=U&ei=rtR_T_3-GKfe2AXb6cyUBw&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNFWuo8rSRyo63aLmXHfcFeKc3Kozw">Mike Kickham</a> provided good production at the top of the rotation, as they each threw over 100 innings and posted ERA numbers of 2.55, 2.91, and 4.11, respectively. <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Drosin-001set&sa=U&ei=ItV_T7fxF4nI2AWApsSFBw&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNFKj_a6tjK8z8-TDHCU679rvKMvVg">Seth Rosin</a> proved to be an excellent spot starter for the Green Jackets, as he struck out 93 batters in 89 innings pitched while posting an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.25. The bullpen also got a bounce back season from <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dconcep001edw&sa=U&ei=w9R_T47xDePS2gW9st2cBw&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNG7ZpwCfblRoYEptBiITa2aoyoe3w">Edward Concepcion</a>, who struck out 62 batters in 52.1 IP. While Concepcion still sports control issues (his K/BB ratio was 1.72), the performance was a nice sign for a prospect whose stock took a serious drop in 2010.<br /><br />Offensively, Augusta struggled to score runs, as they finished fifth-worst in the Sally in runs scored per game at 4.43 and fourth-worst in OPS at .693. Despite the lackluster team showing, the Green Jackets did have some position players who made solid contributions during the 2011 season.<br /><br />Though overshadowed by <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=doming001chr">Chris Dominguez</a> since college (they both were third basemen from the University of Louisville), <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dduvall001ada&sa=U&ei=2dR_T5desYDZBbmcsIEH&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNEpQ6y_5Qyolaj9yjzNu6eXQ8CU3w">Adam Duvall</a> had a breakout year, posting a .285/.385/.527 slash with a team leading .917 OPS and 22 home runs. Outfielder <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dlollis001rya&sa=U&ei=6tR_T5aGGofM2gWX5Pn0Bg&ved=0CBMQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNEKUuundbJ9CmBWY5Q5l2wb1roIfg">Ryan Lollis</a> also had a solid 80-game stint before he made the move to San Jose, as he posted a slash of .314/.393/.422 with an OPS of .816. While he struggled at the end of the year to post a pedestrian .650 OPS, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dwillou002car&sa=U&ei=-dR_T82BKcLs2gXfpZzlBg&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHYon0V7HqZvbH5lp8AS_QiHC8CCw">Carlos Willoughby</a> was a catalyst for the most part at the top of the order, as he showed a patient approach at the plate (.343 OBP, 0.73 BB/K ratio) and some speed on the basepaths (a team-high 33 stolen bases). Though he is repeating the year in Augusta, Willoughby is somebody to keep an eye on, especially to start the year.<br /><br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?</b><br /><br />The outfield will be intriguing as <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Djones-025cha&sa=U&ei=gdN_T671BaXq2QWxzpzhBg&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNH6SVVqaFNpSx-6PenzlQJJnDLgwA">Chuckie Jones</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dkrill-001bre&sa=U&ei=ldN_T7nzO4WL2AXH7rXmBg&ved=0CBQQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNHJA6bSFaLBFGplvgdX4B9LkqT3zQ">Brett Krill</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dpayne-001ras&sa=U&ei=ptN_T73lM-TS2QWy8vjnBg&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNEKpGjAdZ6rudMjsfaKF3-wJHnPQw">Shawn Payne</a> will look to be the regular starting outfield during the 2012 season. Jones is a super-athlete with plus power, arm strength and speed tools (a lot of scouts have made Matt Kemp comparisons because of his background), but he has struggled to make contact over the course of his Minor League career (61 percent contact rate in Salem Keizer a year ago). Krill was a low-round pick in the Giants' 2010 Draft (25th round), but he is coming off a sensational campaign with the Volcanoes where he put up a slash of .304/.350/.488 along with six home runs and four stolen bases in 226 plate appearances. Payne is a toolsy-outfielder who has "Fred Lewis" potential, as he sports a patient approach at the plate, and good speed and instincts on the basepaths (though he doesn't sport a lot of raw power, as he hit no home runs a year ago). Payne put up a slash of .306/.431/.394 and stole 21 bases on 27 attempts in 195 plate appearances in the NWL last year.<br /><br />In addition to Willoughby, shortstop <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dtomlin000kel&sa=U&ei=2tN_T5rVF6XW2AXN6tzzBg&ved=0CBAQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNG6SG1xsQh34zVWTAFmxtkgbhycdQ">Kelby Tomlinson</a> will be an infielder to watch out for this year in Augusta. Baseball America rated Tomlinson with the best speed tool set and the best athleticism out of any Giants draft pick in the 2011 draft (the Giants selected him in the 12th round). Tomlinson however is not just all tools, as he roped pitching in the Arizona Rookie League last year. He posted a slash of .357/.417/.543 in 156 plate appearances. While he doesn't sport "home run power", Tomlinson has showed a strong ability to stretch out hits, as he hit 10 doubles, 5 triples and two home runs in the AZL. He does have to improve his concentration in the field if he wants to continue to stick at shortstop (10 errors, .924 fielding percentage last year), but scouts note that he has the tools and potential to be an above-average defensive shortstop as he moves up the system.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?</b><br /><br />The strength of the Green Jackets' roster is in the rotation, as there will be many arms to watch out for in Augusta in 2012. The roster is filled with projectable, high-ceiling arms who not only could be impact prospects in the Giants system, but could help make this Green Jackets team competitive in the Sally Southern conference.<br /><br />In terms of starting pitching, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dblackb000cla&sa=U&ei=8dN_T6KjH-jq2AXmvtibBw&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHjae1CU_mTqrYrjLRK_G98TRCZ8g">Clayton Blackburn</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dcrick-000kyl&sa=U&ei=ANR_T_D3IsXm2QXL68WSBw&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNGjuD7nfiKXtLCV8vBWuHRk-xUQSg">Kyle Crick</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dmejia-000ada&sa=U&ei=ENR_T5PINeGW2QXZw_X-Bg&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNG8KEvltKrVmq7M6NI52TQzu_hxPQ">Adalberto Mejia</a> will anchor the top of the rotation. Blackburn started on Opening Day for the Jackets and performed well as he struck out six and walked zero while allowing four hits in 4.2 innings pitched. Blackburn is a big (six-foot, three-inches, 220 pounds) powerful arm that showed impeccable command in the Arizona Rookie League as an 18 year old. Crick also shares a similar profile to Blackburn, as he is a powerful prep arm out of Texas who was the Giants' supplemental round pick in the 2011 draft. Crick has more control and command issues than Blackburn at this point in his career (he walked eight and allowed nine hits in seven innings pitched in the Arizona Rookie League last year), but he is only 19 years old, was rated more highly by scouts than Blackburn out of high school, and still has a lot of time for development on the mound.<br /><br />Mejia is a big surprise to make the Green Jackets roster, as many figured <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dgregor001joa&sa=U&ei=KNR_T_TzJuPe2AWyksGGBw&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNEkElaV4bJFsfEipuJ4M6YmSMS3Pw">Joan Gregorio</a> would be starting the year in Augusta instead of Mejia. However, though this is Mejia's first exposure Stateside, he was absolutely dominant in the Dominican Summer League in 2011. He struck out 71 and walked only eight batters in 76 innings pitched, and he finished the year with the DSL Giants with a 5-2 record and 1.42 ERA. It'll be interesting to see how Mejia fares in the Sally as a raw 18-year-old (he'll turn 19 in June) out of the Dominican, but he has the size (six-foot, three-inches and 195 pounds) and skills to project as a good starting pitching prospect not only this year, but for years to come.<br /><br />Some sleepers in the Giants' pitching rotation are <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Darnold001dem&sa=U&ei=PdR_T6qeBoKb2QXY09zmBg&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNH9zeOXlHPkGzHNZsqrUG4Oa6v6fg">Demondre Arnold</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dbandil001bry&sa=U&ei=S9R_T6LgK6W62gW2stCEBw&ved=0CBsQFjAD&usg=AFQjCNFlSsgzNFkI53biLW5kbbpI7ubzRg">Bryce Bandilla</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dmarlow001chr&sa=U&ei=ZNR_T87mJ-nM2AWG7PCFBw&ved=0CBkQFjAE&usg=AFQjCNGZmE79wGbSk9JldooMjT_tBO4HCQ">Chris Marlowe</a>, all picks in the Giants' 2011 draft. Arnold is a raw right hander out of junior college, but scouts have noted his impressive stuff and his strong performance last year in the Arizona Rookie League bullpen. In 26.2 IP, Arnold struck out 32 batters, allowed 16 hits and 8 walks as a nineteen year old. While he is expected to be in the Green Jackets bullpen, his excellent command and strikeout ability should make him a solid late innings option for the Green Jackets in 2012.<br /><br />Bandilla and Marlowe are college prospects who come out of Arizona and Oklahoma State, respectively. While control has been an issue for them in their college careers, they have excellent stuff and strikeout potential, and could be fast risers in the Giants system, especially if they stay in the pen. Marlowe could compete for the setup or closer's position with Arnold, while Bandilla could be the first left-handed pitcher out of the pen in the late innings. While they didn't get much playing time after signing (Bandilla didn't play while Marlowe threw only three innings in the AZL; he did strike out five in three innings of work though), they do offer some upside and will be interesting arms to watch. If they do well, don't be surprised to see a second half promotion for both of these guys in the second half of the year.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>What Should We Expect from the Green Jackets in 2012?</b><br /><br />The Green Jackets have a solid pitching staff that could carry them, especially in the beginning of the year. While the offense has some interesting players with strong tools (Jones, especially), I would be surprised to see the Green Jackets surpass their offensive production from a year ago, especially with their main run producer, Duvall, now playing in San Jose. However, if Willoughby can have a year that was more similar to his first half and not his second half, than the Green Jackets might be able to muster enough offense, especially with a pitching staff that sports so much potential. I don't know if Augusta will be able to compete for a Sally title, but they certainly have the potential to be a dark horse, especially if guys like Jones and Tomlinson can back up their prospect hype with solid seasons at the plate in the Sally.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-23659933226489649292012-04-04T11:33:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:53.897-07:00Richmond and San Jose Set 2012 Rosters (Updated: With Giants and Grizzlies Notes to Come)As the Giants start to figure out today who will and won't be on the active roster for Opening Day, <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ros&cid=476">the San Jose Giants</a> and <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ros&cid=3410">Richmond Flying Squirrels</a> have already released their 2012 Opening Day rosters. This doesn't really come as too big of a surprise since both teams are opening up tomorrow. Here are some things I noticed about the rosters.<br /><br />(<b>Update as of 2:30 p.m. mountain time</b>) <i>The Giants just announced their 25-man roster and consequently, the Grizzlies just unveiled their roster as well. Will have another post to come. The biggest change to this post is that Ehire Adrianza is NOT going to Richmond, but Fresno after all. He is off the Squirrels' list and is now on the Grizzlies roster page. Will have thoughts on the Giants and Grizzlies in a post sometime later today </i><br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>San Jose Roster Notes</b><br /><ul><li>Though there were rumors that Jarrett Parker would make the move up to Richmond with draft classmate Gary Brown, the Giants decided to keep him in High-A to start the year. The move is probably a wise one, since Parker struck out a lot at the plate, and didn't have a steady position with Brown patrolling center field. Now, he most likely will get to play his natural position of center field (his main competition is Chris Lofton, who's athletic but a lot less skilled than Parker), which should give Giants fans and scouts a gauge of how good he is defensively. Hopefully Parker can make some adjustments and cut down on the whiffs that hurt his stock so heavily last season.</li><li>It will be quite a battle to see who'll be playing in the middle infield in San Jose. Joe Panik predictably makes the move to the California League after mashing in the Northwest League the previous season. However, he won't simply be handed the position, as he will be competing with Carter Jurica, the Giants' third round pick in 2010. Jurica has the experience factor on Panik, as he played in 50 games and put up a slash of .250/.355/.383 in 212 plate appearances for San Jose in 2011. However, Panik profiles as the better player overall, for Jurica did commit 14 errors last year at the shortstop position. The best seems to be that Jurica will start at second and Panik will be the shortstop on Opening Day.</li><li>Despite not playing at all last year due to signing late, Ricky Oropesa will start the year in San Jose. With his power potential, he could have a big season, especially in terms of power numbers and home runs. He may strike out a lot, but I could see him having the kind of season in the Cal League that Roger Kieschnick had in 2009 in the CL.</li><li>Some notable absences from the list were Aaron King, Michael Main, Ryan Scoma, and James Simmons, who were all released, <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2012/4/4/2924566/san-jose-giants-fanfest-2012-report-part-1-roster-info">according to this post on the McCovey Chronicles</a>. King and Main were once top pitching prospects in the Giants and Rangers systems, respectively, but injuries and ineffectiveness have derailed their careers.</li></ul><br /><br /><b>Richmond Roster Notes</b><br /><ul><li>Tommy Joseph makes the move up to Double-A and it'll be interesting to see how the Giants will handle him in Richmond. The Flying Squirrels will have Johnny Monell back behind the plate, but it's obvious that more upside rests in Joseph. Because of Monell's presence, it wouldn't be surprising to see Joseph split a lot of time between catcher and first base in 2012, especially if he continues to hit in Richmond like he did in San Jose in 2011.</li><li>The Flying Squirrels will have an interesting outfield setup with Wendell Fairley, Juan Perez and Nick Liles battling for two spots. Right now, I'd say the favorites are Perez (whom I like a lot) and Liles (whom I'm not much a fan of, but more so than Fairley) for the right and left field positions, respectively. Center field won't be up for debate as Gary Brown should and will have the position on lockdown barring injury.</li><li>The pitching staff lacks big-time arms or names, but it should be interesting nonetheless. Michael Kickham looks like the most intriguing prospect on the Flying Squirrels staff, but don't count out Jake Dunning (who's No. 26 on my list), Justin Fitzgerald (the Squirrels' projected Opening Day starter), Austin Fleet (who could transition to more of a starter after spending most of the time in the bullpen in Augusta and Richmond last year) or Craig Westcott (who went 13-4 with a 3.42 ERA in SJ last year). They may not dominate like Eric Surkamp a year ago, but they do have some potential to have good years in the EL.</li><li>Chris Dominguez looks slated to be the starting third baseman for the Squirrels and safe to say, it's a big year for him. He got off to a hot start last year when he made the transition from SJ to Richmond, but he struggled down the stretch and ended finishing with a .244/.272/.403 line for the year. The power potential with Dominguez is there, and his arm strength is probably the strongest out of any infielder in the Giants system. That being said, his ability to make consistent contact as a professional has been lackluster at best. At 25 years of age, he doesn't have much time left on the clock.</li></ul><ul></ul>Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-53091446060271904792012-04-03T23:18:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:54.056-07:00OTF Top 30: No. 21-25; Duvall, Correa, Gregorio, Bochy, Galindo<div class="tr_bq">We're winding down with the Top 30, and now we're really delving deeper into the Giants system in terms of finding guys with talent. While a lot of the prospects in this series of the list have talent and some potential, they do carry considerable amount of risk and are still a long ways off from the Major League level. All of the guys are C prospects, so you're probably not going to find them on the Top-15 of many lists (though Gregorio rates high with a lot of scouts and experts because of his youth, size and upside). However, there are a few guys I'm pretty high on in this series whom I think can make major strides with good seasons this year. Don't be surprised to see two-three of these guys rise to C+ or B- grades next year.</div><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>No. 21: <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=594807">Adam Duvall, Third Base</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C<br /><b>Projection</b>: Major League backup; platoon player at the best, could be a career minor leaguer<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: When it comes to third base prospects in the Giants system from Louisville, Chris Dominguez gets all the hype. It's understandable. Dominguez mashed in college for four years with the Cardinals, and he was a third round pick in 2009 who sported plus power and arm strength as a prospect. Furthermore, at six-foot, five inches and 225 pounds, he has the size and frame of a player with Major League potential.<br /><br />And yet, Dominguez may not be the best prospect from Louisville in the Giants system. Adam Duvall, a former teammate of his who took over the hot corner after Dominguez graduated from Louisville in 2009, is quickly catching up to the more ballyhooed Dominguez after a solid 2011 season in the Sally where he earned All-Star honors.<br /><br />Duvall is an interesting player because he doesn't have the "tools" that Dominguez has. Duvall's got a good frame (six-foot, one inches, and 205 pounds), but it looks diminutive in comparison to his former college teammate. Furthermore, none of Duvall's tools have ever been plus rated by scouts, which explains why he dropped to the Giants' slot in the 11th round of the 2010 Draft. Even Baseball America in their profile on him in their Prospect Handbook for 2012 (they ranked him as the Giants' 28th best prospect) noted that he had average range and arm strength, fringy speed and that his at-bats "aren't likely to be found on an instructional video" (e.g. his swing doesn't impress). In a myriad of ways, Duvall seems to fit the profile of an organizational player at-best.<br /><br />And yet, his numbers in Augusta were promising, and do flash potential. Yes, he was old for the Sally (22 years old), but so was Dominguez (23 years old), and yet that hasn't prevented scouts and experts from still rating Dominguez as one of the Giants' top 3rd base prospects (Baseball America rated him as the Giants' 16th best prospect this year). Let's take a look at the numbers from their respective seasons in Augusta:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><br /><i><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=doming001chr">Dominguez (2010)</a>: .272/.326/.456 (average/OBP/slugging), 21 home runs, 85 runs scored, 35 walks, 133 strikeouts, 0.26 BB/K ratio in 608 plate appearances.</i><br /><i><br /></i><br /><i><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=duvall001ada">Duvall (2011)</a>: .285/.385/.527 (average/OBP/slugging), 22 home runs, 69 runs scored, 59 walks, 98 walks, 0.60 BB/K ratio in 510 plate appearances.</i></blockquote><br />If one looks at the numbers and considers the age factor (that Duvall broke into the Sally one year earlier than Dominguez), then Duvall's season looks far superior. Not only did Duvall flash power potential (he hit more home runs is almost 100 less at-bats), but he also displayed a better eye at the plate and made better contact against pitchers in the Sally. Of course, Duvall's line isn't perfect by any means (at 19.2 percent, his strikeout rate is still high, especially considering his age), but it definitely adds a little bit to the debate in terms of which former Cardinal is a better prospect at third base.<br /><br /><b></b>As good as Duvall's offensive year was, there still are some serious flaws in his game, mostly with his glove. First off, defensively he sports not only average tools, but he also struggled at times with concentration in the field his first full season in professional ball. Last year, he committed 27 errors and posted a fielding percentage of .908, which is very disheartening. He may not have the athletic gifts to be apremium or even an average infielder. That being said, he needs to cut down the errors in 2012 if he wants to be able to stay at the position as he moves up the Giants system.<br /><br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012</b>: Most of Duvall's value as a prospect comes with his bat. He was four for eight on stolen base attempts last year, and he'll be lucky to steal five bags a year considering the reports on his speed and athleticism. Hence, Duvall doesn't offer much upside with his glove or on the basepaths, so if Duvall wants to move through the Giants system, he's going to have to continue to hit. He has a good plate approach, and his power tool seems to be legitimate (<a href="http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/01/18/2011-sal-all-stars-3b-adam-duvall/">Robbie Knopf made some interesting points about his power numbers in Augusta</a>). In addition, his offensive numbers are bound to get better as he moves to the hitter-friendly California League this upcoming season, so that will certainly be a boost to his stock.<br /><br />That being said, we have seen prospect bash in the lower minors and struggle once they start to face better pitching and hit in more pitcher friendly environments (the Eastern League will be a huge test). While I am not saying Duvall is going to fall into that category, he hasn't done much to prove that he isn't more than a one year wonder. Duvall's campaign in San Jose should be interesting to pay attention to, especially if he gets off to a hot start. If so, I'll be curious to see if the Giants will take the same path with him as they did with Dominguez (move him to Double-A mid-year after he mashed High-A pitching). If that happens (though I think it is unlikely), that should be a real gauge of Duvall's status and projection as a prospect.<br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=correa001hec"><b>No. 22: Hector Correa, right-handed pitcher</b></a><br /><br /><b>Overall grade</b>: C<br /><b>Projection</b>: Middle innings reliever; perhaps could find himself in a setup role<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Correa was acquired in a trade in 2009 that sent former left-handed bullpen arm Jack Taschner to Florida. At six-foot, three inches and a 175 pounds, Correa has a tall, wiry frame and has flashed some potential, though he is probably destined for middle relief at the Major League level.<br /><br />Correa went under the radar when he was acquired because he was battling shoulder issues and missed the entire 2009 season due to surgery. However, when he resurfaced in 2010 in Augusta, he dominated the Sally, striking out 58 batters and only walking 16 in 43.2 IP. His split campaign in San Jose and Richmond last year proved his comeback wasn't a fluke, as he continued to excel on the mound in the Cal and Eastern League. In San Jose, he struck out 37 in 42 innings pitched and posted an ERA of 1.93 and a K/BB ratio of 3.08. While his ERA did jump up to 3.20 with the Flying Squirrels, he still showed excellent command in 39.1 IP, posting a K/BB ratio of 2.67.<br /><br />His tools and arsenal as a pitcher rate well by scouts and experts, as he throws a fastball that sits 91-92 MPH but can touch the mid-90's. While his slider is rated as a "below average" pitch, according to Baseball America, his changeup is considered to be a strong secondary pitch, and many people believe that Correa can succeed with that two pitch arsenal, especially if he remains in the bullpen. <a href="http://whenthegiantscometotown.blogspot.com/2012/01/down-on-farm-20-hector-correa.html">Here is what Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town said in his writeup</a> of Correa this season (he rated him as the Giants' 20th best prospect):<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i> </i><br /><i>"Baggs did an Organizational Report on him for BA in November and reported that his fastball was in the "mid-90s" and he combined it with a "plus-plus" changeup. The changeup allows him to be effective against LH batters allowing the Giants to stretch him out to 3 and 4 inning stints in Richmond. He could still be stretched all the way out to starter, but I have to say it's more likely he'll end up as a setup man or long reliever in the majors."</i></blockquote><br />Considered a good athlete with a lean, strong frame and plus makeup, Correa certainly has the potential to be a viable pitcher in the Giants bullpen as soon as this season. He was a top prospect in the Marlins system prior to injury, and now that those shoulder issues seem to be a thing of the past, Correa is starting to live up to the expectations that were placed upon him when he was drafted in the fourth round out of Puerto Rico in the 2006 draft.<br /><b><br /></b><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>What to expect in 2012:</b> Correa was placed on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and it seems like it was a good idea. With Dan Runzler probably out for an extended time, Correa could break in and have an impact at the Major League roster as soon as this year. Correa didn't get much time with the Big League roster this Spring, but he did strike out 3 in 2.1 innings pitched. However, his two walks and three hits allowed probably displayed that he could use some seasoning in Fresno to begin the year.<br /><br />I like what Correa brings to the table, but his limited ceiling as a bullpen arm and prior history of injury issues (as I said though, it looks to be in the past, but you never know) limit me from grading him higher than a C. However, should any of the Giants' bullpen arms falter or suffer injury, Correa could be a strong first option the Giants may resort too. He has been stellar the past couple of years, and at 23 years old, he still has a lot of years and mileage left in the tank.<br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gregor001joa">No. 23: Joan Gregorio, right-handed pitcher</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C<br /><b>Projection</b>: No. 3-5 starter; could be a long or middle innings reliever<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: When it comes to pitchers out of Latin America in the Giants system, probably no other prospect (well...except for maybe Adalberto Mejia) generates as much buzz as Joan Gregorio. At six-foot, seven inches and a 180 pounds, Gregorio is the kind of tall, raw but high-ceiling pitching prospect that most scouts and analysts foam at the mouth for.<br /><br />Gregorio signed with the Giants out of the Dominican Republic in 2010, and immediately started playing in the Dominican Summer League after signing. While his numbers weren't as impressive in the DSL as Mejia's (but then again, few pitchers did what Mejia did last summer), they still were solid overall and displayed that Gregorio wields a tremendous amount of potential. Gregorio made 14 starts and pitched 74 innings for the Giants' DSL squad, and he held batters at bay, posting a 2.80 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 2.41 K/BB ratio. While his strikeout numbers weren't gaudy by any measure (41 strikeouts), his control (17) and command were still impressive for an 18 year old who had just recently signed.<br /><br />After the strong performance in the DSL, the Giants moved Gregorio to the Arizona Rookie League in 2011 and he did even better in his second partial professional season. Gregorio increased his strikeout rate (to 7.7) without sacrificing much control (his walk rate rose to 2.9), and he posted a stellar 2.30 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 50 innings pitched and 12 starts in Arizona.<br /><br />One of Gregorio's strengths as a pitcher, in addition to his control and command, is his ability to induce groundballs. <a href="http://minorleaguecentral.com/player.php?pid=593340">According to Minor League Central,</a> Gregorio posted a GB/FB ratio of 1.14, with a groundball rate of 45 percent. Considering this was his first taste of pitching stateside, the ability to keep the ball on the ground and minimize hard contact (he only gave up a line drive rate of 14.8 percent) bodes good things for his future, especially if he can continue to keep up the stellar strikeout rates and command he displayed in 2011.<br /><br />John Sickels of Minor League Ball has been high on Gregorio as a prospect in the Giants system going into 2012. Here is what he says about Gregorio in his report:<br /><blockquote><i><br />"He’s hyper-projectable, already throws 89-94 MPH, and may pick up more velocity as he matures. He has a decent curve but is still working on his changeup. He was one of the more promising pitchers in the Arizona Rookie League, but he needs another weapon against left-handed hitters, who hit .333 against him. At this point his youth and projectability are more important than the numbers, but the numbers aren’t bad either."</i></blockquote><br />Of course, as Sickels notes, Gregorio's tools as a pitcher are still works-in-progress, and he's a long way from the Bigs. So, he definitely carries a size-able amount of risk. That being said, the potential is there, and with his long frame and projectable body, Gregorio is far from a polished product as a prospect, which should give the Giants organization and fans a lot of hope for the future with him.<br /><br /><br /><b>What to expect in 2012</b>: The word on the street is that Gregorio is going to be starting in Augusta, and at 20 years old, that makes sense. He and fellow AZL teammate Clayton Blackburn should make a good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in the Sally. As far as what kind of impact Gregorio will have on the mound in his first full season, it's still hard to project because his tools are so raw, but I think Gregorio is trending in the right direction. He's already got some good velocity on the fastball, and as he grows into his body, the velocity will only increase. As of now, reports have him as a two-pitch pitcher, but if he can continue to make strides with his changeup, then he could sport a dangerous arsenal as a middle-of-the-rotation guy. I don't think Gregorio has the upside or potential of a No. 1, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Giants rotation in the future as well.<br /><br />If his tools develop as planned, then the Giants will have another home-grown arm to stock their rotation/pen with. Of course, we said the same things about Henry Sosa and Merkin Valdez, but Gregorio's size and frame make him one of the more enticing arms the Giants have had from Latin America in the past few years. He's a C prospect now, but I expect him to make nice strides this year in Augusta and make some kind of a jump in grade in 2013.<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1209594633"><br /></a></b><br /><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bochy-001bre">No. 24: Brett Bochy, left-handed pitcher</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C<br /><b>Projection</b>: Middle relief with possibility to be a setup guy or spot closer<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Drafted in the 20th round of the Rule 4 draft, a lot of experts and Giants fans took the pick with a grain of salt. After all, Bochy was the son of manager Bruce Bochy, and while he did have a stellar career at Kansas (he posted a 0.78 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 23 innings with 34 strikeouts as Kansas' closer his final year in college), scouts weren't exactly bursting with praise about Bochy having a future at the Big League level. Many felt that the pick was either a.) done for publicity purposes or b.) done more as a favor to Bruce.<br /><br />However, since making his debut in Augusta last year, the six-foot, two-inch lefty has turned around some heads in baseball analyst and scout circles, as many people are starting to recognize that he offers more to the table as a prospect than just being Bruce Bochy's son. Pitching primarily out of the bullpen for the Green Jackets, Bochy made 35 appearances and pitched 39 innings in the Sally last year, and finished the season with a 1.38 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10 saves.<br /><br />Bochy's biggest strength as a pitcher is his impeccable command and strikeout ability, which he displayed even at Kansas. In Augusta over the full course of a Minor League season, it was even more evident, as he struck out 53 batters, good for a 12.1 K/9. To make things better, Bochy limited his free passes in the Sally last year (8 total walks), which resulted in him posting a ridiculous 6.63 K/BB ratio. To put things in perspective, the last pitcher who put up K/BB ratios that impressive in the Sally from the Giants organization was Madison Bumgarner, who posted a K/BB ratio of 7.81 in 2008. While Bumgarner's ratio is obviously more impressive because he is a starting pitcher and Bochy is a reliever, it does add some context on how sterling Bochy's numbers were in his first professional season.<br /><br />If there is anything to knock against Bochy, it may be that his ceiling is limited to a bullpen role at the Major League level, and he may not have the kind of elite stuff to be a closer, either. His arsenal is mainly a fastball/slider combo, with his fastball ranging from 90-93 MPH. His slider also is tough on right handed hitters, according to Sickels in his report on Bochy. Another issue is Bochy's history of arm issues, as he had TJ surgery after blowing out his elbow his last year at Kansas. However, the arm issues didn't seem to be a problem for him at all last season in Augusta.<br /><br /><br /><b>What to expect in 2012</b>: Because of his age (24 years old) and low ceiling, Bochy could move up quickly this year in the Giants system. The Giants already decided to have him skip High-A San Jose, as he will start the year in Double-A Richmond. Richmond might not be the only destination for him this year, for if his Spring Training was any indicator (<a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDUQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mercurynews.com%2Fgiants%2Fci_20304302%2Fsan-francisco-giants-notebook-brett-bochy-makes-his&ei=at57T-71MaTO2AXzhf3PDA&usg=AFQjCNGk9WspwbJqpvAFbIQ9MTbTRz8Vow">he struck out two in an inning of work with the Big League club this Spring</a>), it wouldn't be surprising to see him see some time in Fresno or even the Majors should injuries or ineffectiveness hit the bullpen.<br /><br />Overall, Bochy could end up being a gem in the rough for this Giants organization. He went from a 20th round pick with arm issues, to a strong reliever with excellent command in the matter of a year's time. The Eastern League will obviously be a step up in competition from the Sally, but if his progress from the beginning of last Spring to this Spring is any indicator, then Giants fans could have a lot more to look forward to from Bruce's son in 2012.<br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=galind001jes">No. 25: Jesus Galindo, outfielder</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C<br /><b>Projection</b>: Platoon to backup outfielder; could be a starting one if his contact ability improves<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Behind Gary Brown, Galindo probably has the best speed tool set out of any prospect in the Giants system. Last season, he swiped 47 bases on 55 attempts (an 85 percent success rate) in Salem Keizer, his first season stateside (he played the previous two years in the Dominican Summer League). In addition to the stellar stolen base numbers in the Northwest League last year, scouts and coaches have raved about his speed. The biggest endorsement came from Volcanoes manager Tom Trebelhorn who compared Galindo's baserunning ability to Ricky Henderson.<br /><br />A burner on the basepaths from Venezuela at five-feet, 11-inches and 175 pounds, Galindo sports good athleticism for his size, though he could afford to add some strength to increase his value at the plate. While he has been lauded for his plate discipline (he posted BB/K ratios of 0.76 and 1.17 in 2009 and 2010 in the DSL, respectively, and last year he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.54), his ability to make consistent contact as a hitter has been up for debate. While he did hit .276 last year in the NWL, he struggled to hit for average in the DSL, posting batting averages of .244 and .246 in his two seasons there. Galindo has the ability to make contact, as he posted an 81 percent contact rate a year ago, but he needs to show progress this year that the skills he displayed in 2011 is more of an indicator of what Giants fans should expect from 2012-forward.<br /><br />Defensively, scouts are high about Galindo's potential, with Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball Analyst noting that he covers ground well in center field, and the has a strong enough arm to keep runners honest. Baseball America noted the same things, saying that he maximized his speed by getting good jumps on balls. I'm not sure if Galindo will be a premium defensive outfielder at the next level (it's far too early to tell to be honest), but he certainly has the tools and athleticism to be a strong defender despite his diminutive stature (think Andres Torres-esque).<br /><br />The main issue with Galindo is his lack of power, as he displayed little last year in the NWL and even less in the DSL. Last year with the Volcanoes, Galindo posted an ISO of .088 and an extra base hit percentage of 21 percent, which are far from impressive. Yes, Galindo has tremendous speed and he's going to have the potential to beat out well-placed groundballs on a regular basis (especially since he's a switch hitter). On that same note though, if he can be able to hit the ball in the gaps, he could be a regular threat to be a 20-plus doubles and 15-plus triples guy on a regular basis. Galindo may never be a home run hitter and with his size, it would be hard for him to project as one too. But, with his speed, if he can garner even a little bit of gap power, then his ceiling as a hitter could be tremendous.<br /><br /><br /><b>What to expect in 2012</b>: At 21 years old, Galindo could start the year in San Jose, especially with Gary Brown and perhaps Jarrett Parker moving on to Richmond in 2012. It may be wiser to start him in Augusta, simply not to rush him, but he is a bit of an older prospect because he spent a couple of years in the DSL. Wherever he starts at in 2012, Galindo will be an interesting prospect to watch in 2012. He has incredible speed, solid plate discipline and a solid glove in the field. If he can continue to make contact in the Sally or Cal League like he did in the NWL, then the future could look very bright for Galindo and the Giants.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-43788833720312461482012-04-02T21:58:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:54.210-07:00Writing for a New Site...But OTF Will Still Go OnSo, for those who may not be aware, I got an invite from Wally Fish of the Fansided network to write for <a href="http://seedlingstostars.com/">Seedlings 2 Stars</a>, Fansided's Minor League blog. Being that I am one of those people who always loves new challenges and opportunities, I have decided that I would contribute to their blog as a staff writer. I already <a href="http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/04/02/a-look-at-the-top-latin-american-position-prospects-in-the-nl-west/">posted my first article for their site</a>, which is a look at the Top-5 Latin American position prospects in the National League West (Peguero comes in at four, and Adrianza and Sanchez are honorable mentions). I hope to write one on pitching prospects at some point this week. They want me to write a couple of times a week, which I think I can do while still keeping up consistent posts on this blog.<br /><br />Also, side note, I know some of the grades might be a little off from what you see here. To give some context, I am an optimist at heart with the Giants. Yes, I'm anti-Eli Whiteside and anti-Chris Dominguez, but for the most part I tend to cut the Giants a lot of slack on things, especially when it comes to player evaluation. I mean, I was a guy who supported Fred Lewis and John Bowker as everyday Major League players, and Lewis has just been cut by the Indians this Spring and Bowker is playing for the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB. So, that just goes to show you how green I am when I come to evaluating talent. In terms of where I'm at in the Minor League analyst circles, I would say I'm just starting High-A, and I'm trying to take advantage of the hitter-friendly environments of the Cal League.<br /><br />But, the point is, I tend to be more optimistic when I look at Giants prospects. Adrianza would be a C+ prospect to most analysts, but I think of him as a B on this site because I think his bat will come around and I think his glove is Gold Glove worthy. Same goes with Joe Panik, who I rate as a B+ prospect while most analysts would think of him as a B to B- guy based on his tools. Hence, the way I think of Giants prospects on this site is not really a clear cut standard...or at least not yet. With S2S, while I will be covering prospects from my perspective, I will also be covering and evaluating them based on what the general consensus is from scouts, publications and other web sites. So, while Francisco Peguero may be a B prospect on this site, I rate him as a B- prospect on S2S because the general consensus on him from most people is that he's a B- guy. I think when trying to cover prospects on a National scale, one has to take into consideration all the sources. I do that here, but as Shankbone said in a comment, I do try to give a lot of consideration to guys in the Giants system, because to be frank, I am a Giants fan and as much as I hate to admit it, I am biased in favor of the Giants.<br /><br />I don't know if this clears anything up, but hopefully it'll give some context and explain the differences as I rotate my posts between here and S2S. God knows where I'm going to get the time to do all this posting, but when you live where I live and have the job I have, you do manage to find time.<br /><br />I am shooting to get No. 21-25 in the prospect list done by tomorrow. I have already started, just didn't have the time today to really get finished. For all those who read this blog, thanks for reading and check out S2S. They're going through some writer turnover, but they got some really good stuff and a great staff. Definitely glad to be aboard.<br /><br />Just a couple of more days to Opening Day. Hoka Hey!Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-27214058489139648062012-04-01T22:39:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:54.363-07:00Spring Training Notes: End of Spring, More Moves, Sleeper?So after today's game, the Giants have officially ended Spring Training. While there is still a multitude of moves to do, it'll be very interesting to see how things shake up, both at the Minor and Major League level.<br /><br />-- After <a href="http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120401&content_id=27815198&vkey=news_sf&c_id=sf">today's 7-4 loss to the Brewers</a>, the Giants have officially ended their Spring Training game stint. Brandon Crawford assured himself of the starting position with a home run, and finished the Spring with a .340/.417/.566 slash to go along with three home runs, 11 runs scored and 13 RBI.<br /><br />-- Another player who saw time in Fresno and San Jose last year who could be a candidate for the 25-man roster is Hector Sanchez. While the Giants and many experts out there feel he could use more seasoning behind the plate, Sanchez did more than hold his own at the plate this spring. His Spring slash was .390/.386/.756 in 41 at-bats, and he also showed some power for his position as evidenced by his four home runs and three doubles. While Bruce Bochy may like the veteran presence of Eli Whiteside, it's obvious that Sanchez has more upside, which could be big considering it is hard to gauge how much Posey will play behind the plate this year. I still think Bochy will eventually go with the vet for the backup position, but Sanchez could play a huge role this year, especially if he transitions his ST performance to the PCL.<br /><br />-- In addition to releasing Ramon Ortiz, the Giants also released some more players during the week of March 20-26th, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/03/minor-league-transactions-march-20-26/#more-14308">according to Baseball America's Minor League transaction blog</a>. The list includes <span class="content">RHP Ryan Bean, RHP Brennan Flick, RHP Stephen Shackleford, RHP Adam Thomas, RHP Sundrendy Windster, LHP Chuck Lofgren, 1B Josh Mazzola, 2B Kaohi Downing, OF Leo Ochoa.</span><br /><br /><span class="content">-- Some of the interesting names of this bunch are <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lofgre001cha">Lofgren</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=windst001sun">Windster</a>. Lofgren was a formerly touted prospect in the Indians system who was ranked as the 54th best prospect going into 2006 and 71st best prospect going into 2007 by Baseball America. However, the Bay Area product (he went to Serra High School, the same high school that produced Barry Bonds), has struggled in the minors and didn't do enough to impress the Giants this Spring. As for Windster, he was a converted position player who started pitching last season. However, he struggled in the Arizona Rookie League and continued to show issues this Spring. At 23 and not having played much beyond Augusta, the Giants figured that there wasn't much ceiling left with Windster.</span><br /><br /><span class="content">-- Could middle infielder <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=arias-001joa">Joaquin Arias</a> be a sleeper this year? With Mike Fontenot being released, he not only could be a viable option in Fresno this year, but he could challenge for a spot on the active roster as well (especially with Freddy Sanchez hurt and Emmanuel Burriss projected as the starting second baseman). Arias has impressed this Spring with a .304/.353/.457 slash this Spring with two home runs and a stolen base in 46 at-bats. Arias was formerly a top prospect in the Rangers system (he was rated as the 77th prospect in baseball according to Baseball America going into 2005), so the potential is there, even if it has faded a bit since shuffling between the Rangers and Royals organizations.</span>Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-91079374902702177792012-03-30T13:58:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:54.514-07:00Division Clash: Comparing the NL West's Prospects by Postion (Catcher)So with Opening Day approaching for Minor League teams everywhere, I figured it would be a good idea to look at and compare the other prospects and talent from other teams in the NL West to the ones in the Giants organization. With so many players, the best thing to do in my opinion was to take the top prospects by position from each team and compare them to one another. That way, everyone gets an idea who the other NL West teams have in their system, while also engaging where teams' strengths are and where the weaknesses are as well.<br /><br />In this post, I'm going to look at the catching prospects in the NL West. The prospects are Michael Perez (Diamondbacks), Tim Federowicz (Dodgers), Wilin Rosario (Rockies), Yasmani Grandal (Padres), and Tommy Joseph (Giants). I'll write up a short summary on each Non-Giants prospect, and compare all the prospects to one another at the end (I'll be doing the same things for all the other positions as well).<br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=perez-004mic">Michael Perez, Arizona Diamondbacks</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/zt2bmpnTZSo" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 19 years old<br /><b>Drafted</b>: 5th round of 2011 MLB Draft<br /><b>Hometown</b>: Catano, Puerto Rico<br /><b>Highest level played</b>: Rookie Ball <br /><b>2011 Regular Season Numbers</b>: .217 average, .280 OBP, .565 slugging, two home runs, two walks, 10 strikeouts in 25 plate appearances (Arizona Rookie League).<br /><br /><br /><b>Why Perez is the D'Backs' Best Catching Prospect?</b><br /><br />While the Diamondbacks' system is stocked to the ceiling with high-end pitching, it's position depth is rather thin. Catcher may be the most lacking in terms of depth, as Perez rates as the best catching prospect in Arizona's system, and he was just recently drafted in the 2011 Rule 4 Draft.<br /><br />Perez has some pedigree, as he was a fifth round pick, and was rated as the 24th best prospect in the Diamondbacks' system according to Baseball America. From Puerto Rico, Perez is a bit raw, but he does sport some athleticism and potential at five-foot, 10 inches and a 180 pounds. His arm strength and power bat are Perez's highest rated tools, but his plate approach and ability to make consistent contact at the plate still need a lot of work. John Sickels, who graded Perez a C prospect in his Prospect Handbook, said this in his report on Perez in his 2012 PH:<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"A high school catcher from San Juan, Puerto Rico, Michael Perez was drafted in the fifth round last June and signed to a $235,000 bonus. He played just seven games of pro ball in the Arizona Rookie League, but those seven games matched the pre-draft scouting reports exactly: Perez has loads of power potential from the left side, but needs to make more contact and microwave his undercooked defensive skills behind home plate. He is a long way from the majors, but catchers with a chance to hit always bear watching."</i></blockquote><br /><br /><b>Evaluation on Perez:</b><br /><br />Perez is still young, raw and has a long road to the Majors, but at his age (he's going to be 19), the Diamondbacks can afford to be patient with him, especially with Miguel Montero established at the catcher's position at the Major League level. He does have a nice swing from the left side of the plate, though I do want to see more tape of him in game action before I can make a definitive judgment on his overall potential at the plate. With two home runs and two doubles in 23 at-bats in Rookie Ball last year, Perez certainly has the potential to be a power-hitting catcher in the future, and his size and profile resembles Montero's in a myriad of ways. That being said, his seven game stint in Rookie Ball was such a short sample, and we'll need to see if Perez's power will be able to sustain over the full course of a season. The Diamondbacks will probably start Perez this season in Short-Season Yakima, <a href="http://baseballinstinct.com/2011/11/12/mlb-draft-catchers-review/">according to George Utter of Baseball Instinct</a>. That will give Perez a chance to work on some things both offensively and defensively in extended Spring Training.<br /><br /><b>Grade</b>: C (Potential to rise to a C+ or B- next year if he can transition his AZL power in the Northwest League).<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=federo001tim">Tim Federowicz, Los Angeles Dodgers</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/GQzM68HsEcA" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 24<br /><b>Drafted</b>: 7th round of 2008 MLB Draft (Drafted by Boston)<br /><b>Hometown</b>: Erie, Pennsylvania<br /><b>Highest Level Played:</b> Majors<br /><b>2011 Regular Season Numbers</b>: .277 average, .338 OBP, .407 slugging, eight home runs, 32 walks, 63 strikeouts in 382 plate appearances (Double-A Portland); .325 average, .431 OBP, .627 slugging, six home runs, 15 walks, 20 strikeouts in 102 plate appearances (Triple-A Albuquerque); .154 average, .313 OBP, .154 slugging, zero home runs, two walks, four strikeouts in 16 plate appearances (Majors Dodgers).<br /><br /><br /><b>Why is Federowicz the Dodgers' Best Catching Prospect?</b><br /><br />The Dodgers have had quite a history of finding catching talent (Mike Piazza, Paul Lo Duca, Russell Martin, Carlos Santana), though keeping it in their organization has been a bit of a different story. Since Martin, the Dodgers haven't had much success in this department, as evidenced by free agent Rod Barajas getting a majority of playing time behind the backstop last season.<br /><br />I had a hard time with this one mainly because I was torn between Federowicz and Gorman Erickson. Federowicz, who came from the Red Sox organization in the three way trade that sent Eric Bedard to Boson last year, is a polished defensive-first prospect and doesn't come with a lot of upside (his grade from Baseball America was 45 with low risk). Erickson on the other hand may be better with the bat, but he didn't really break out until last season. So, I decided to go with Federowicz, who is generally rated higher by most experts than Erickson. Baseball America rated him as the 10th best prospect in the Dodgers system, while Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball Analyst rated him as the Dodger's 14th best prospect.<br /><br />As for Federowicz, he split his minor league season between Portland of the Eastern League and Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League. At the plate, he didn't quite impress in Double-A, but he held his own for his position as he posted a .277/.338/.407 slash in 382 plate appearances. After he was traded to the Dodgers, he made the most of the PCL's hitter-friendly confines, as he raised his slash to .325/.431/.627 in 102 plate appearances. The strong performance with the Isotopes earned him a late season call up to the Dodgers, but his tenure was mostly irrelevant, as he played in only 7 games and hit .154 in 16 plate appearances.<br /><br /><br /><b>Evaluation on Federowicz: </b><br /><br />Offensively, he profiles mostly as replacement level or slightly above offensively, as he doesn't sport much power (his career high in home runs at any level was 10 in the Sally in 2009) and doesn't really hold much potential to hit for high average (the only times he hit over .300 was in the Sally and PCL). His ability to make contact is decent (he's been in the 76-88 mark in terms of contact percentage over his minor league career) and he does sport a good approach and eye at the plate (his BB/K ratio has been over 0.50 at every level since 2010), but his tools and ceiling don't rate as anything special.<br /><br />Defensively is where Federowicz profiles well, as scouts have been high on his footwork behind the plate as well as his strong throwing arm. He threw out 37 percent of baserunners in Portland last year, and while that rate regressed to 22 percent in the PCL (though he only played 22 games), he still averaged a 33 percent rate between Portland and Albequerque in 2011. His career caught stealing rate is 33 percent, so it's obvious that Federowicz has the tools to be a very good defensive catcher at the Major League level.<br /><br />With A.J. Ellis and Mike Treanor ahead of him at the Major League level, Federowicz will probably start the year back in the PCL in 2012, but should get a shot to compete for the starting job at some point this year. If he continues to hit Triple-A pitching in 2012 like he did in 2011, he could get more playing time than the seven game stint he saw last season.<br /><br /><b>Grade</b>: C (I consider him to be a platoon/backup catcher at the Major League level for the most part, but if his offensive game can continue to improve, he could have a couple of seasons where he could be a starting catcher. Defensively, he profiles well, but his future as a Big Leaguer depends on how he handles the stick with the Dodgers.)<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rosari001wil">Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/eQ36wV4Og_0" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 23<br /><b>Signed</b>: 2006 by Rolando Fernandez and Felix Feliz<br /><b>Hometown</b>: Bonao, Monsenor Nouel, Dominican Republic<br /><b>2011 Regular Season Numbers</b>: .249 average, .284 OBP, .457 slugging, 21 home runs, 19 walks, 91 strikeouts in 426 plate appearances (Double-A Tulsa); .204 average, .228 OBP, .463 slugging, three home runs, two walks, 20 strikeouts in 57 plate appearances.<br /><br /><br /><b>Why is Rosario the Rockies' Best Catching Prospect?</b><br /><br />A Top-30 prospect according to John Sickels last year (he was ranked the 28th prospect in baseball according to Sickel's 2011 list), Rosario is probably one of the highest rated offensive prospects in the Rockies system behind Nolan Arenado. Last year, Baseball America ranked Rosario as the second best prospect in the Rockies system and last year, Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball analyst rated him as the 37th best prospect in baseball.<br /><br />However, despite the accolades and stellar season in Double-A in 2010, Rosario failed to build upon the hype in 2011. Even though it was his second campaign in the Texas League, he struggled to make consistent contact (78 percent contact rate; 21.4 percent strikeout rate) and showed serious flaws in his discipline and approach at the plate (0.21 BB/K ratio, a .16 decrease from the previous season). The same plate discipline problems continued in the Majors when he got a call up late in the year, as he struck out 20 times in 57 plate appearances while only walking twice (a 0.10 BB/K ratio).<br /><br />While the strikeouts and lack of walks will always be something of concern for Rosario, he does still have a lot of upside as a prospect. Even with the regression in his second year in Tulsa in 2011, Rosario remains one of the Rockies' best position prospects. Baseball America rated him as the fourth best prospect in the Rockies System going into 2012, and the MiLBA rated him the third best prospect in the Rockies System and the fourth best catching prospect in baseball.<br /><br /><br /><b>Evaluation on Rosario:</b><br /><br />Rosario possesses two plus tools: his arm strength and power. In terms of arm strength, his success in terms of gunning down runners is dually noted, as he hasn't posted a throw-out rate below 38 percent since 2008 (his second season in Casper). Scouts note that not only does he have a cannon for an arm, but that his footwork and exchange are very clean as well. Defensively, Rosario does have some flaws, as his blocking ability could still use some work, and he could move laterally better, according to Baseball America. However at 23 years old, he still has time to develop his skills behind the plate as well as his game-calling (which will only get better with more experience).<br /><br />What attracts scouts and experts the most about Rosario however, is definitely his hitting potential, specifically his power. Rosario has mashed over his minor league career, and despite all the flaws and letdowns of his 2011 season, his ability to hit the big fly with ease didn't regress in the slightest. He hit 21 home runs in Tulsa, and three home runs in 57 plate appearances with the Rockies. In addition, he also posted extra base hit rates of 39 percent and 63 percent in Double-A and the Majors, respectively. Scouts note that he has a short stroke, can hit Major League fastballs and has 30-home run potential at the Major League level.<br /><br />Still though, much like Joseph in the Giants system, the big question with Rosario is whether or not he'll see enough hittable fastballs once pitchers start to adjust to his free-swinging ways. Rosario has an aggressive approach that sometimes borders on "too-aggressive" more often than not. Scouts and experts note that breaking balls give him a lot of trouble, and he tends to chase pitches outside the zone often. To make matters worse, he doesn't walk much, and has never walked much in the Minors (his best walk rate, 8.7 percent, came in his first season in the Pioneer League). If the strikeouts continue to be an issue in high minors and Majors, this could be a huge red flag because Rosario's approach will never result in him drawing enough walks to counter a lot of strikeouts (career high 0.42 BB/K ratio).<br /><br />Rosario is far from perfect, but he's an impressive prospect nonetheless. In terms of the catching prospects in the NL West, his arm strength and power tools probably rank highest. That being said, his plate approach might be the worst (and Joseph isn't exactly Scott Hattesberg). At his age, there is still some time for Rosario to develop, and he could project into a more athletic Yadier or Bengie Molina, with even more home run potential. That being said, if his approach doesn't improve, his ceiling could be Miguel Olivo-esque.<br /><br /><br /><b>Grade</b>: B (I love the power and the arm strength, so I'm cutting him some slack despite the lackluster 2011 season overall; however, it will be a crucial year for him in 2012. Either he makes the step to being an All-Star caliber catcher this year, or he struggles and shows that he probably is destined for platoon or backup duty behind the plate.)<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=granda001yas">Yasmani Grandal, San Diego Padres</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/JQktr7VN45I" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 23<br /><b>Drafted</b>: 1st round (12th overall) in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Cincinnati Reds<br /><b>College</b>: University of Miami (FL)<br /><b>Hometown</b>: La Habana, Cuba<br /><b>2011 Regular Season Stats:</b> .296 average, .410 OBP, .510 slugging, 10 home runs, 41 walks, 57 strikeouts in 251 plate appearances (High-A Bakersfield); .301 average, .360 OBP, .474 slugging, 4 home runs, 13 walks, 39 strikeouts in 172 plate appearances (Double-A Carolina); .500 average, .667 OBP, .667 slugging, zero home runs, five walks, one strikeout in 18 plate appearances (Triple-A Louisville).<br /><br /><b>Why is Grandal the Padres Best Catching Prospect?</b><br /><br />The former Cuban defector's future looked bleak, as he seemed blocked in the Reds system by the team's top prospect Devin Mesaroco, who is destined for the starting job at some point in 2012. However, the Padres took advantage of the Reds' system depth and lacking of pitching consistency at the Major League level, and Grandal came along with Yonder Alonso in a trade for Padres ace Mat Latos. Suddenly, Grandal went from the second-best catching prospect in his own system, to probably the best catching prospect in the NL West period.<br /><br />Grandal played college ball at the University of Miami (he was teammates with Alonso) and was drafted 12th overall by the Reds in 2010. While he doesn't sport the power or athleticism of former "colleague" Mesaroco, Grandal does possess a strong ability to hit for average, a patient eye at the plate, and some sneaky (though not plentiful) slugging potential. Furthermore, Grandal does have some strong defensive skills behind the plate, as he has a solid, six-foot, two inch frame and an average to slightly-above average arm (he threw out 34 percent of baserunners last season). The numbers did show Grandal got better defensively in his call up to Double-A, as he allowed less passed balls (5 to 14 in High-A) and threw runners out at a better clip as well (36 percent to 34 percent in High-A). So, while he may not be a Gold Glover by any means, he certainly has the defensive potential to be a mainstay at the position for a long time.<br /><br />While Nick Hundley is currently manning the position in 2012, and was recently inked to an extension by Padres management, the future clearly rests in Grandal's hands. Grandal did show some contact issues last year (his contact rate in Bakersfield was 72 percent, and in Carolina it was 75 percent), but he was above average in terms of making contact in college (84 percent) and he does have an excellent eye at the plate (17 percent walk rate, 0.72 BB/K ratio in Bakersfield). To me, those things should bode well for him as he most likely makes the move to Tucson and the Pacific Coast League to begin the 2012 season (expect a big breakout from him in Triple-A this year...that place is a bandbox).<br /><br /><br /><b>Evaluation on Grandal:</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhardballtalk.nbcsports.com%2F2012%2F03%2F22%2Fyasmani-grandal-wonders-where-he-fits-in-padres-plans-after-nick-hundley-extension%2F&ei=Ghh2T6vrHMb8ggeP36nzDg&usg=AFQjCNGfXfJwVt8YL-3KbaXb0pUDZbMN8g">There were rumors that Grandal was upset by the Hundley extension</a>, but I think management is clearly in Grandal's camp. He is still only 23 years old, and he comes across as a polished college catching prospect who could be an All-Star at the Major League level (Gordon of the MiLBA graded him as a 9D prospect). Grandal may not have the arm strength of Rosario, but I think his defensive skills should be good enough considering his bat. He still needs more time and development in terms of calling games (an issue for most catchers coming out of college since college coaches mostly call the games), which could be the reason why he begins and may stay a majority of the year in Tucson. For that reason, it is understandable why the Padres inked Hundley to an extension, even though Grandal may have the more upside.<br /><br />Offensively, I like his plate discipline, and his ability to use the whole field as a hitter. He is also a switch hitter, which should help him out at a spacious park like PETCO (which severely limits pull-heavy lefties as evidenced by Anthony Rizzo's struggles last season), but considering his power tool set as well as the environment of San Diego's home park, I would be surprised if he tops the 15 homer mark as a Big Leaguer. That being said, scouts say that he has a balanced approach that will bode well for him to hit for high average, so even if he may not produce the home runs, he could produce 2010 Buster Posey-esque lines in the future where he is producing a lot offensively for his position despite the fact that it isn't coming in terms of eye-popping slugging or home run numbers.<br /><br /><br /><b>Grade</b>: B+ (Hundley is the guy for now, but at some point Grandal will get his shot and I think he'll be the full-time guy by 2013 (Hundley to me will be trade bait this year). He is a talented overall catcher who is already polished, but still has some potential both offensively and defensively. I'll be interested to see how his offense will translate to PETCO, but for now, he'll just have to settle for putting up "MLB '99" numbers in Tucson and the PCL.)<br /><br /><br /><b>NL West Catcher Prospect Rankings:</b><br /><br />1. <i>Grandal, Padres</i><br /><ul><li>Grandal is the best overall catcher and most ready for the Big Leagues out of any catching prospect in the NL West. He may not have that one outstanding tool like some of the other catching prospects (specifically Rosario), but I think his tools are strong enough to the point where he could be an All-Star caliber catcher at the Major League level.</li></ul>2. <i>Rosario, Rockies</i><br /><ul><li> Rosario's probably holds the best power and arm strength tools out of any catcher prospect in the NL West (Grandal included), but his lack of plate discipline and regression in 2011 are a huge red flag. He still is young, and the potential and ceiling could still be quite high for Rosario in the future. That being said, there needs to be major progress in his approach if he wants to become anything more than an Olivo-esque player.</li></ul>3. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=joseph001tho"><i>Joseph, Giants</i></a><br /><ul><li>Because I <a href="http://optionedtofresno.blogspot.com/2012/02/otf-top-30-no-3-tommy-joseph-c1b.html">did a profile on him on this blog</a>, I didn't feel like there was much of a need to go into much detail on him in this post. (I mean, what else could I say that I didn't say before?) Joseph's may have the second best power tool set behind only Rosario, but like Rosario, his plate discipline is a Major question. Joseph did show improvements defensively in 2011, but his abilities still probably pale in comparison to the other catching prospects in the NL West, as a lot of experts are conceding the fact that he is going to make an eventual move to first base. If Joseph continues to progress from High-A to Double-A like he did from Low-A to High-A, then Joseph could be on the top of this board by next year. His age is definitely a plus in his favor (he'll be 20 years old this year).</li></ul>3. <i>Perez, Dimaondbacks</i><br /><ul><li>The more I see Perez, the more I think "Miguel Montero-esque", but it's just way too early to say that definitively on Perez. He was just selected in last year's draft and he has only 25 professional plate appearances underneath his belt. Still though, he did sport a lot of power and arm strength potential in the Arizona Rookie League, and scouts seem high on his potential and athleticism behind the plate. Much like Joseph, with a strong season in his first full year of professional ball, Perez could rocket up this board, and it could be between him and Joseph for best catching prospect in the NL West in 2013.</li></ul>5. <i>Federowicz, Dodgers</i><br /><ul><li>Erickson probably has more ceiling and don't be surprised to see Erickson on this list next year. For now though, Federowicz takes the cake as the Dodgers' best catching prospect and he is probably destined for backup or platoon status in the Major Leagues. He doesn't offer a lot of offensive upside, and while good defensively, he doesn't project as spectacular by any stretch of the imagination. Federowicz could be very valuable for the Dodgers in the future and even as soon as this year (especially with mediocre options like Ellis and Treanor ahead of him in the Bigs).</li></ul>Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-19082992991156463572012-03-27T16:05:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:54.667-07:00Spring Training Notes: Ortiz Released, Journeymen Re-Assigned and Belt OTF?With Opening Day (well...the official one, unless you count today's games in Japan as Opening Day) officially begins next week, which means we're winding down in Scottsdale. So, as with anything winding down, there is some new swirling around Giants camp as the rosters start to get finalized. Safe to say, there probably is a lot more on the horizon for the Giants in the next couple of days.<br /><br />Here are a few of the most recent tidbits that deal with Giants prospects/minor league players.<br /><br /><br />-- <a href="http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2012/03/26/sf-giants-release-ramon-ortiz-prepare-to-welcome-ryan-vogelsong/">According to Hank Schulman of the SF Chronicle</a>, the Giants released journeyman right handed pitcher <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizra02.shtml">Ramon Ortiz</a>. Ortiz pitched for the Fresno Grizzlies in 2010, but didn't get a callup at any point that season. Last year, Ortiz made his return back to the big leagues, making 22 appearances for the Cubs while posting an ERA of 4.86 in 33.1 IP. Despite his experience and arm (he averaged 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings last year with the Cubs), it was a longshot that Ortiz would break camp with the Major League team, let alone see any playing time at the Major League level at any point this season. With the Giants depth in the starting rotation and bullpen, the chips were heavily stacked against Ortiz this Spring. Chances are though he will catch on with another team at some point this year, most likely with a team that is in more need of pitching or bullpen depth.<br /><br />-- Also, Schulman reported that the Giants re-assigned Andrew Kown, Brian Burres, Wilmin Rodriguez, and Shane Loux to Minor League camp. All of them were non-roster invitees, so the decision on these guys doesn't really come as a surprise. <a href="http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=471920#gameType=%27S%27">Rodriguez</a> had the most impressive Spring of the bunch, as he posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in six appearances and 5.1 innings of work. He also recorded a save and struck out five batters while allowing four hits and no walks. Of all the listed guys above with an outside chance to somehow sneak on the 40-man roster this year, I think Rodriguez has the best shot, especially with <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=1&ved=0CCwQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mercurynews.com%2Fci_20098088&ctbm=nws&ei=ZkVyT-mKEOjq2wW4ivnrDg&usg=AFQjCNFI0WWXwUgDbtuuIYYJf4p5hVrhJA">Dan Runzler's health a major question mark this year</a>.<br /><br />-- Much to this writer's dismay, Brandon Belt may start the year in Fresno despite a stellar spring (he was hitting .380 with three home runs going into today's game), <a href="http://www.csnbayarea.com/baseball-san-francisco-giants/giants-talk/Giants-not-convinced-Belt-is-ready-for-b?blockID=678068&feedID=2539">according to Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area</a> (and formerly the SJ Mercury). Giants hitting coach Hensley Meulens had this to say in Baggarly's piece about Belt's performance at the plate this Spring:<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>“He’s way out in front of the batter’s box,” Meulens said. “It works for him, but want to make sure he’s getting the bat head out on those pitches middle-in and not just trying to flare it to left-center. We’re on the back field using drills so he can create that feel. When his elbow goes out, the barrel actually flattens and it takes a longer time to get the bat out in front."</i></blockquote><br />My big issue with this is that I understand Belt may not put up the .380 mark in the Majors this year like he has been doing this Spring. That is unrealistic of course, and I think he would probably be a .250-.270 hitter with a .340-.360 OBP and .420-.450 slugging. However, Belt really has nothing else to prove in Fresno (he mashed last year), and he offers a lot more value to the Giants other than just offense (he is a huge defensive upgrade over Aubrey Huff). It's just sad that the Giants are being so cautious with him, because I think he came on toward the end of the year after the Giants stopped sending him down to Fresno and back up to San Francisco like one of those<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wb0jObZiqiI"> crazy, flashing Yo-Yo's</a>. Hopefully, Belt will get an extended shot at first for the Giants at some point this year and can prove to the Giants he's the best option for the Giants not only for the future, but for the present as well.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-35906948413970521212012-03-26T15:31:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:54.817-07:00Latin America Look: DPL 1B/3B Prospects Natanael Javier and Leury VargasLast week, I wrote a little profile on the Dominican Prospect League, and much like I will be looking up prospects who'll be entering the 2012 Draft out of high school and college, I figure it would be a good idea to look at some international names who'll be eligible to sign in 2012. The first two I am going to look at are two guys out of the DPL program in the Domincan Republic: Natanael Javier and Leury Vargas, both who project as corner infielders. Both also appeared at the DPL Showcase in Peoria, Arizona this March.<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.dplbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=318:scouts-corner-2012-class-natanael-javier-3b&catid=38:featured-players&Itemid=54">Natanael Javier, Third Base</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/iSitPg7Vq38" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 16 years old (Birthday: October 10th, 1995)<br /><b>Hometown</b>: Boca Chica, Dominican Republic<br /><b>Height</b>: Six-foot, Three inches<br /><b>Weight</b>: 185 Pounds<br /><br /><b>Summary on Javier:</b><br /><br />Javier is a 16 year old third baseman who sports a lot of potential at the plate. At six-foot three inches, he's big and strong, and when you watch tape of him in batting practice, he can wow you in a variety of ways. He has a strong, fluid swing that is very consistent and he can really drive the ball with authority. <a href="http://www.dplbaseball.com/index.php/plugins/content/jw_allvideos/tmpl/css/templates/rhuk_milkyway/media/components/com_joomgallery/images/M_images/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=331:scouts-corner-2012-class-leury-vargas-1b-3b&catid=38:featured-players&Itemid=54">Perfect Game USA in their recap of the DPL Workout Day on March 21st</a> echoed a lot of the same sentiments, noting that Javier had one of the most impressive batting sessions of any of the DPL players that day. Here is what they said about Javier in their writeup:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><br /><i>"Javier is a right-handed batter with lots of strength. He has by far the best plate coverage of any of the players and his bat is in the strike zone for a long time. His swing is quick with smooth and easy bat speed. He had a “wow” BP, especially on his third round when he cut it loose. He launched three homers with easy far over the left field wall with almost no effort. To say the ball jumps off his bat is overused in scouting and really doesn’t do Javier justice. I’m not sure if it leaps, bounds, hop, or springs off his bat, but it is quite impressive."</i></blockquote><br />If I had to guess, I would say his swing reminds me a lot of Hanley Ramirez. His swing looks very effortless, but he has the strength to really put some pop behind the ball. However, a lot of his value as a potential prospect is tied to his offensive ability, as scouts haven't been as high about his defense or speed in the field or basepaths. <a href="http://www.dplbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=318:scouts-corner-2012-class-natanael-javier-3b&catid=38:featured-players&Itemid=54">In the scouting report on the DPL site</a>, they note that even though Javier's "foot work is great for a big man and has good body control and agility," they do suggest that he is "an average fielder with average arm strength and runs below average."<br /><br />At 16 years old, Javier does have room to improve in his weak areas, and he could become a better fielder with more exposure to professional instruction, especially in Rookie ball (both in the DSL or VSL, or AZL or GCL with whatever team that signs him). Even if he cannot stick defensively at third base, the reports on his bat and power are good enough to where he could make the move to first base in the future (though he obviously would hold more value at the hot corner).<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.dplbaseball.com/index.php/plugins/content/jw_allvideos/tmpl/css/templates/rhuk_milkyway/media/components/com_joomgallery/images/M_images/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=331:scouts-corner-2012-class-leury-vargas-1b-3b&catid=38:featured-players&Itemid=54"><b></b></a><b><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6403092643973900215&postID=6665387434134220201&from=pencil">Leury Vargas, First Base/Third Base</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/mjx_ML1QF9c" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age:</b> 15 years old (Birthday: August 30th, 1996)<br /><b>Hometown:</b> San Cristobal, Dominican Republic<br /><b>Height</b>: Six-foot, Three inches<br /><b>Weight</b>: 210 pounds<br /><br /><b>Summary on Vargas:</b><br /><br />Vargas made a lot of noise for being one of the youngest players to travel with the DPL team to Peoria. Despite his youth (he doesn't turn 16 until late August), he is definitely a man-child at Six-foot, three inches and 210 pounds. Though he can play both corners, with his size, it is more likely that he will probably project as a first baseman as a professional. When you watch him on tape, it's obvious he is very raw defensively, as he doesn't look as smooth as many of the other infielder prospects on the DPL squad (and even Javier, who is rated as average defensively). While most of what I saw was him playing first base, his footwork could use a lot of work and his transfer and throwing motion could use some fine tuning as well. However, at his age, he still has plenty of time to develop and polish up his glove at the corner.<br /><br />What really makes Vargas stand out is his bat. For a big guy, his swing is very short and compact (even more so than Javier's), but he still gets a lot of pop behind the ball and can consistently hit line drives. He keeps his hands and the bat close to his body and he sports a bit of a leg kick in his load. To me, his swing compares a lot to Robinson Cano. But with his strength and size, he'll obviously project for more power than Cano as a hitter.<br /><br />Perfect Game was intrigued by Vargas simply because of his age and short swing for a first baseman. Here's what they said in their writeup on <a href="http://www.perfectgame.org/blogs/Entry.aspx?entry=12539">Vargas about his workout on March 21st</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"Leury Vargas is a bit on an anomaly, a Dominican first base prospect. He is a physical specimen listed at 6’3, 210 which is a couple inches and 10-15 pounds on the conservative side as he towers over the other players. He was the youngest position player on the team and doesn’t turn 16 until August 30. He doesn’t have the deep load that others do, as he stays very short to the ball with very quick and strong hands/wrists. His power is evident with a lot more to come."</i></blockquote><br />The biggest key to Vargas' future is his size, as he is already 210 pounds as a 15 year old and he is only going to get bigger as he gets older. Whether or not he can keep the weight under control in the future will be a huge factor in his development, especially since his athleticism and footwork seem to be average at best. However, he has a ton of power potential and youth on his side, so safe to say, he will be very intriguing to a lot of teams who are looking for a long-term project to boost their system.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-20108201594341782462012-03-25T11:56:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:54.967-07:00OTF MLB Draft Peek: LHP Brian Johnson and RHP Jake BarrettThough we are still months away, it's always a good time to be looking at potential candidates in the upcoming MLB Draft. With the college baseball season starting to gain steam, a lot of Draft and Prospect blogs and sites out there are already coming out with mock drafts. I decided to take a look at two college arms who were projected to go in the Giants slot at No. 20. They are pitchers Brian Johnson and Jake Barrett, who come from established college powerhouses Florida and Arizona State, respectively.<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.gatorzone.com/baseball/bios.php?year=2012&player_id=76">Brian Johnson, Left-Handed Pitcher, University of Florida</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/qKzEOIls6lE" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Why You Should Know About Johnson:</b><br /><br /><a href="http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2012-mlb-mock-draft-4-0-top-58-picks-including-supplemental/18449/">Through The Fence has Johnson going at No. 20 in their latest mock draft</a>, and safe to say, Johnson is an intriguing arm who could have a lot of versatility as a prospect. For starters, Johnson is a two-way player for the Gators who also plays first base in addition to pitching. While <a href="http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=brian-johnson-12">he has produced solid numbers at the plate</a> for the Gators over his collegiate career (he posted a .307/.381/.464 slash last season with five home runs in 192 at-bats last season and this year his slash is .283/.316/.453 with two home runs), he holds a lot more value in this draft as a pitcher. Last year, he made 15 starts and 16 appearances for the Gators and posted an 8-3 record with a 3.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. This season, Johnson has gotten off to a good start, as he is 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA after six starts.<br /><br />Johnson's main strength as a pitcher is his control and command. Last year, he posted a K/BB ratio of 4.8 and a walk rate of 1.69. This year, his plus tools haven't missed a beat, as his K/BB ratio currently sits at four and he has only allowed seven free passes in 31.2 innings pitched. Johnson isn't a strikeout artist by any means, as his K/9 was 8.13 last year and 8.08 this year, but with his control, the strikeout numbers may be good enough for him to be a solid Major League starting pitcher.<br /><br />The main weakness with Johnson though is that he has proved to be hittable in his collegiate career. Last year, he had a hits allowed per nine innings of 8.81 and this season has proved to be similar, as his H/9 rate currently sits at 8.08 (the same as his K/9). While he was able to keep the ball in the park last year (he only gave up four home runs all of last year), this year, his H/9 rate has hurt him more, as he leads the Gators pitching staff in home runs allowed with five (already one more than his entire total from last year). Granted, with the move from metal to wood bats, one can imagine that Johnson will be able to keep the ball in the park a little better as a professional. That being said, how well Johnson will be able to induce groundballs will be the key to whether or not he will be successful as a professional pitcher.<br /><br />Johnson sports a three pitch arsenal with a fastball that sits in the low 90's, a changeup and a slider that projects to be a plus pitch at the next level, according to TTF writer Dan Kirby. At six-foot, four inches and 235 pounds, Johnson has a big, impressive frame, and Kirby noted that he has a great mound presence and an advanced feel for pitching. Last summer, he also gained valuable experience playing for the USA Collegiate Team, though he was mostly lauded for his performance at the plate (he did hit three home runs, including the game winner against Japan).<br /><br />There are some concerns that come with Johnson as a potential pick, with the issues mostly centering on hitters ability to make contact off him and a <a href="http://www.nowpublic.com/sports/brian-johnson-injury-video-florida-baseball-pitcher-hit-head-2795758.html">head injury he suffered from an errant throw by catcher Mike Zunino during a game against Georgia last season</a>. Nonetheless, with his impeccable command and versatility as a two way player, Johnson could be an intriguing pick for the Giants should he be available at the 20th slot in this year's draft.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.thesundevils.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/barrett_jake00.html">Jake Barrett, Right-Handed Pitcher, Arizona State University</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Sx9nVpbItdQ" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Why You Should Know About Barrett:</b><br /><br />Selected 99th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2009 draft, Barrett is a polished college arm that was projected to go in the Giants slot <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pinetarpress.com%2F2012-mlb-draft-february-mock%2F&ei=_mpvT-iQLqX02QXhy830AQ&usg=AFQjCNFucMOslqZ7ifx4w5s4Gcy9Bk9AmQ">according to Pine Tar Press writer Ty Youngfelt</a>. Much like Johnson, Barrett sports solid command and tools as a pitcher, and could help stock a Giants system that is thin on pitching after numerous trades (Tim Alderson, Scott Barnes, Zack Wheeler, Henry Sosa) and graduations (Madison Bumgarner, Dan Runzler).<br /><br />Barrett has solid tools as a pitcher, as he sports a fastball that sits in the 90-94 MPH range along with a curveball and splitter that have above average potential, <a href="http://mlbdraftcountdown.wordpress.com/2011/06/13/jake-barrett-rhp-arizona-state/">according to MLB Draft Countdown</a>. MLBDC was particularly high about Barrett entering this season, as they noted this in their profile on him last June:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i><br /></i><br /><i>"Toronto was so high on him back in 2009 because he had a big-league body (6’3″, 225 lbs), a good fastball (90-94 mph) and two pitches (curveball and splitter) with above-average potential...He showed great poise stepping into a very talented bullpen during his freshman year, <a href="http://thesundevils.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/barrett_jake00.html">pitching</a> to a 3.41 ERA in 28 outings and striking out 43 batters in 29.1 innings... </i><br /><br /><i>This year, Barrett made the jump to the rotation and found instant success. His first start of the season saw him toss six-innings of shutout ball, giving up only three hits while striking out six. He finished the season with a 7-4 record, a 4.14 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 76 innings. He tossed one complete-game shutout against Cal late in the season....Barrett is going to be one of the most big-league ready of any of the college pitchers in the 2012 class, making him a perfect fit."</i></blockquote><br />So far this season, the Sun Devils have regulated Barrett back to the bullpen, as he has taken over the role as the team's primary closer. While the change in roles certainly hasn't helped his stock, he has relished in the role, striking out 14 batters and allowing only 2 walks in 11.2 innings pitched this year. He also has two saves and is posting a 2.31 ERA after nine appearances to begin the 2012 collegiate season.<br /><br />Much like Johnson, hitters have been able to make contact against Barrett at a decent rate over his amateur career. <a href="http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Jake-Barrett">Last year, he posted a H/9 percentage of 8.88</a> and this year he has allowed 8 hits in his 11.2 innings of work. The high hit rates haven't hurt him as much, as he has kept the ball in the park as evidenced by his 0.36 HR/9 rate last year, and one home run this season. That being said, much like Johnson, how well he will be able to induce groundballs will be key to his development as a professional pitcher, especially since his control isn't as solid as Johnson's (he posted a BB/9 of 2.49 last year).<br /><br />If he stays as a reliever this year, then I highly doubt the Giants will pick up Barrett at the 20th slot (Youngfelt made his Mock Draft in February before the college season started and I assume he thought Barrett was going to stay in the rotation). That being said, if Barrett somehow make the transition back to the rotation this year, then he could be a viable pick at the 20th slot. There is no doubt about his tools, and in limited innings of work, he can prove to be a dominant pitcher who can strike out hitters in bunches. Furthermore, at six-foot, three inches and 230 pounds, he has a big solid frame that projects well for the future. However, it's obvious stamina is an issue for him, as evidenced by his role change this year. Even if he pitches the whole year in the bullpen, Barrett could still have a future as a starting pitcher as professional, but the Giants and Barrett himself are going to have to work on his conditioning in order for him to be able to log a lot of innings as a starter over the course of a full professional season.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-27767148969038283502012-03-24T15:24:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:55.117-07:00OTF Top 30: No. 16-20; Oropesa, Kickham, Rosin, Parker, DominguezOkay, after a few off-the-road posts, I decided to get back to the rankings. Let's take a look at the 16th-20th prospects on the list. As you can see, the quality is dropping off a little bit, as we're hitting the lower end C+ and middle C range in terms of prospects. Nonetheless, there is some upside with some of these guys, it's just that they come with a lot of warts that prevent me from going higher on them. Of course, a bounce back year, and these guys could gain in their grades, and that is certainly possible with all five of these guys.<br /><br /><br />No. 16: <b><a href="http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Ricky-Oropesa">Ricky Oropesa, First Base</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C+<br /><b>Projection:</b> Starting first baseman; at worst, pinch hitter off the bench.<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: A third round pick by the Giants in the 2011 draft, Oropesa has some big upside as a potential power threat, but carries a size-able amount of risk. A physical specimen at six-foot, three inches and 225 pounds, Oropesa has the look and some of the plus tools of a future home-run mashing first baseman. He hit 40 home runs total in his career at USC and posted a career slugging of .596 and OPS of 1.007 as a collegian. Furthermore, he has had moments where he had just wowed scouts in person, with his most eye-popping feat being a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlaumrGkl8k">home run he absolutely crushed off of UCLA's Gerrit Cole</a>, the eventual No. 1 pick in last year's draft.<br /><br />And yet, despite the power and solid, Big-League frame, Oropesa for the most part comes off as a bit of a one-trick pony. The scouting reports on his defense are average at best, he doesn't sport a lot of speed on the basepaths or in the field (pretty much limiting him to first base or a corner outfield position), and he isn't expected to hit for much average as a professional either. Yes, his career collegiate batting average is .331, but he only posted a contact rate of 77 percent as a collegian, and <a href="http://www.pointstreak.com/baseball/player.html?playerid=56376">in 2010 in the Cape Cod, he only hit .222 in 153 at-bats with 52 strikeouts to boot</a>.<br /><br />For better or worse, a lot of Oropesa's stock and projection as a prospect weighs on his ability to hit for power as a professional. Hence, the amount of risk weighing on that one tool really prevents me from thinking he's a Top-15 prospect in the Giants system at this point (and he didn't sign in time to get any time in Rookie Ball or the Northwest League, so that also hurt his rating since he hasn't been exposed to professional pitching yet). That being said, even though he had a down year his junior year at USC (he only hit 7 home runs after belting 13 and 20 his freshman and sophomore seasons, respectively, though I imagine the change in bats had something to do with the regression in power numbers), he did hit a league-high seven home runs in the Cape, so Oropesa certainly has the ability to hit for power with wooden bats.<br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012</b>: Oropesa will always be susceptible to strikeouts because of his long, uppercut swing. That being said, he has a good eye at the plate (career 0.59 BB/K ratio, with it being 0.65 and 0.63 the past two years at USC) and that could make up for the amount of whiffs Giants fans will see in the minors from him. He definitely has Carlos Pena-esque potential, as it seems like his power is legitimate and he could post good OBP numbers that will make up for the low averages (I don't see Oropesa projecting to be more than a .250 hitter in the Majors). Of course, we have seen offensive-heavy collegiate prospects flame out before (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=martin003edu">Eddy Martinez-Esteve</a> being the biggest recent example), but Oropesa does have some good ceiling, and if he can mash home runs on a consistent basis that are in a similar mold to the one he rocked off Cole in college, then he could make some noise in the Giants system. It is likely that the Giants will take a slower route with him, like power hitting third base prospect Chris Dominguez, and start him off in Augusta. However, he could start off the year in San Jose if he makes an impressive enough impression on the Giants brass this Spring (though with Angel Villalona starting the year in San Jose, that is probably unlikely).<br /><br /><br />No. 17: <b><a href="http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=mike-kickham">Mike Kickham, Left-handed pitcher</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C+<br /><b>Projection</b>: No. 3-5 starting pitcher<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Mike Kickham entered the Giants as somewhat of a sleeper prospect after being drafted in the 6th round in the 2010 MLB Draft. A polished college pitcher from Missouri State, Kickham has the size and frame of a starting pitcher with Major League potential. <a href="http://www.collegesummerbaseball.net/2010/10/top-performers-from-2010-mike-kickham.html">Kickham made a lot of noise in the Summer Collegiate League circuit </a>after having a great campaign in the <a href="http://www.minkleaguebaseball.com/index.html">MINK League (Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas College summer league)</a> where he went 3-0 with a 0.29 ERA in 24 innings of work. He also struck out 42 batters and only allowed 7 walks for the Sedalia Bombers that summer (good for a K/BB ratio of six). Though his summer in the MINK was cut short due to the Giants drafting him in the sixth round, it was a nice campaign that got Kickham on many prospect experts' radar.<br /><br />While Kickham's traditional numbers didn't impress in college (he posted a 4-9 record with a 5.25 ERA and 1.36 WHIP), he did show solid command (3.43 K/BB ratio) and ability to rack up strikeouts (9.66 K/9) in 96 innings pitched his sophomore year with the Bears. He did prove to be hittable at times (9.47 H/9), but for the most part, sans the ERA and W-L record, Kickham did have a lot going for him in his last year as a collegian.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=kickha001mic">In his first full professional season in the Sally</a>, the same problems seemed to hound Kickham in Augusta. He didn't post a great W-L record (not totally his fault, since the Green Jackets were one of the worst offensive teams in the Giants system and the Sally is tough on hitters) and he still allowed a lot of hits (9.0 H/9) in 111.2 innings pitched. However, he transitioned his impeccable command to Single-A (2.78 K/BB ratio), and got better as the year progressed. Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town <a href="http://whenthegiantscometotown.blogspot.com/2012/01/down-on-farm-17-mike-kickham.html">said this about Kickham in his Top 50 rankings profile</a> (where Kickham also ranked No. 17):<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"Mike Kickham continued a pattern from college of posting peripheral numbers that look much better than his ERA. What's encouraging about Kickham's performance for Augusta is he got progressively stronger as the season went along. Over his last 10 starts, he went 4-5, 3.25, 55.1 IP, 13 BB, 40 K, GO/AO=2.36. He really turned it on over his last 6 starts starting August 5: 3-3, 2.23, 36.3 IP, 5 BB, 25 K."</i></blockquote><br />Kickham was a bit old for the Sally at 22, but he has all the tools you would want from a starting pitcher. He has an enticing frame at six-foot, four-inches and a 190 pounds, and his fastball sits in the 92-94 MPH range according to reports. Also, Kickham sports a curve ball, slider and a changeup, so his four pitch repertoire bodes well for his future as a starting pitcher.<br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012</b>: Kickham most likely will start the year in San Jose, which will be a challenge for him considering the hitter-friendly environments of the California League. Kickham does induce a lot of groundballs (thanks to his breaking pitches), but how he avoids contact will be a big factor for him in terms of whether her progresses or regresses as a prospect in High-A. His strikeouts per nine numbers were solid last year (8.3), but they weren't spectacular by any stretch. Kickham's strong finish last year provides a lot of hope for the future, and with his frame, there is hope that he can gain more velocity as he fills out into his body (which hopefully will help his ability to strike batters). Overall, there is a lot to like about Kickham, and I think he has more upside than an Eric Surkamp, who had amazing command and strikeout ability, but lackluster tools. That being said, Surkamp dominated in the Cal League, and Kickham needs to do the same in 2012 if he wants to really gain steam as a prospect in the Giants system.<br /><br /><br />No. 18: <b><a href="http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Seth-Rosin">Seth Rosin, right-handed pitcher</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C+<br /><b>Projection</b>: No. 4-5 starting pitcher; most likely a bullpen arm, maybe a setup guy<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Another former Green Jacket, Rosin is a powerful right handed arm that struck out guys in bunches in the Sally last season. Much like Kickham, Rosin entered the draft as a polished college arm out of the University of Minnesota. In his last year with the Golden Gophers, the six-foot, five-inch right hander went 9-4 with a 4.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 95 strikeouts in 103 innings pitched.<br /><br />Like Kickham, the ERA numbers didn't impress, but Rosin's excellent command in college (7.92 K/BB ratio) prompted the Giants take him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rosin-001set">After striking out 9 batters and allowing 9 hits in an 11 inning-stint in Salem Keizer in 2010</a>, Rosin had a good year in his first full professional season in Augusta. He appeared in 39 games and made 10 starts with the Green Jackets, pitching 89 innings total in 2011. Despite the inconsistency in roles, he still posted good numbers, as he finished the year with a 3.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 3.10.<br /><br />As evidenced by him striking out 95 batters in 89 innings, his ability to strike batters out makes Rosin an intriguing prospect. He sports a 92-94 MPH fastball, a a 72-76 MPH curveball and a changeup that sits in the 81-84 MPH, <a href="http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2010/02/06/seth-rosin-report">according to a scouting report by John Klima of the Baseball Prospect report</a>. While his curve ball and changeup still need a lot of work, his lively fastball and impeccable command should carry him as a prospect as he moves up in the Giants system.<br /><br />He has a big frame, but at 235 pounds, his size probably projects him to be more of a bullpen arm rather than a rotation guy. I just don't think he will have the stamina to pitch 150 plus innings in his professional career. Furthermore, his three pitch repertoire also limits his potential to be a consistent play in the rotation. That being said, if he can get into better shape and develop his pitches, he could have end of the rotation or spot-starter potential.<br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012</b>: Rosin will join Green Jacket teammate Kickham in San Jose, most likely starting in the bullpen (though it is possible that he could get an end of the rotation spot). Rosin is a big, powerful arm who has great stuff and even better command. Much like Kickham, he's a bit of an older prospect, but he has held his own as a professional thus far. The Cal League will be a challenge for him, but his command is a bit better than Kickham's at this point, so the transition should be less arduous for Rosin than Kickham. It'll be interesting to see what the Giants do with Rosin (either make him a starter or reliever), but either way, he has the tools to be a player in the Giants pitching staff in a couple of years.<br /><br /><br />No. 19: <b><a href="http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Jarrett-Parker">Jarrett Parker, Outfielder</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C<br /><b>Projection</b>: Utility outfielder; maybe a Major League backup<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Parker came into the Giants system with some lofty hype after posting a .333/.428/.593 slash with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 243 at-bats in his final season at the University of Virginia in 2010. The Giants selected the polished, athletic collegian in the second round of the 2010 draft. The selection of Parker, along with first round pick Gary Brown, showed the Giants commitment to acquiring more position prospects who could move quickly in the minor leagues.<br /><br />Much like Brown, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=parker003jar">Parker started his first full season in San Jose</a>. Unlike Brown though, Parker struggled in his first year, though his numbers weren't terrible by any means. Parker did flash a lot of speed in his first year, as he stole 20 bases in 25 attempts, and he did display a good eye at the plate, as evidenced by his .360 OBP and 13 percent walk percentage. However, Parker struggled to put the bat on the ball consistently in High-A ball, as he struck out 144 times (a 25.2 percent rate) and posted a contact rate of 70.4 percent.<br /><br />Hitting for average as a professional may be a struggle for Parker (even in college his contact rate was under 80 percent), and that was evidenced by his .253 average in San Jose. That being said, his plate approach and ability to get on base could maximize his value, especially considering his skill on the basepaths. In terms of power, he did sport some pop at the University of Virginia (26 home runs combined his last two years with the Cavs), and in his first year in San Jose, as evidenced by his 13 home runs and 33 percent extra base hit percentage. His power probably projects more as gap to gap power rather than pure home run power, but with his speed, the ability to hit the ball to the gaps will only maximize his value as a prospect.<br /><br />Defensively, Parker has been graded as a plus defender, as <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8003785&topic_id=8080130">Jonathan Mayo in his 2010 Draft Day scouting report of Parker</a> said that he had plus defender skills and range to be a good center fielder (though he did note that he had below average arm strength). Statistically though, Parker will have to work on some things, as he did commit 10 errors and posted sub-2 range factors at every position he played in 2011 (though he may have been playing out of position in San Jose, as he mostly played right with Brown in center).<br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012:</b> Parker's stock took a big hit in 2011, though to be honest, he's kind of been on a bit of a downward trend since his phenomenal 2009 where his team bested a Stephen Strasburg-led San Diego State team in the NCAA Regionals (<a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDEQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcapecodbaseballleague.blogspot.com%2F2009%2F08%2Fpostseason-prospect-rankings-top-5.html&ei=hT9uT7eCGciI2gXKhcDyAQ&usg=AFQjCNFZLyUucrWJYe2xZ077XmC21lZ5UQ">he was rated as the top prospect going into the Cape Cod in 2009</a> and he struggled in the Cape). Parker will probably begin the year in San Jose again, though that might not be a bad thing, for he will probably play more at his natural position of center field and he could use some more time to hone his approach at the plate and cut down on the strikeouts. Overall, Parker is a great athlete and baserunner, and his careful eye at the plate should produce .340-plus OBPs wherever he should go in the Giants system. If he gets off to a hot start in his second year in the Cal League, it wouldn't be surprising to see him join classmate Brown at Double-A Richmond at some point in 2012. That being said, the Giants will need to see significant progress from Parker in San Jose before they rush him up to Double-A.<br /><br /><br />No. 20: <b><a href="http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Chris-Dominguez">Chris Dominguez, Third Base</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C<br /><b>Projection</b>: Utility corner infielder; could be a career minor league player if approach doesn't improve<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: A 3rd round pick by the Giants in the 2009 draft, Dominguez came in with some high expectations after mashing at Louisville in college. He was one of the best hitters in the Big East, leading the conference in batting average his last two seasons, while also displaying considerable power as a collegian (he hit 46 home runs combined his last two years, and also posted extra base hit percentages of 39.6 and 43.8 percent his junior and senior years, respectively). Hence, the Giants figured Dominguez would be a fast-moving prospect in their system after playing four years with the Cardinals.<br /><br />However, Dominguez moved slowly in the Giants system, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=doming001chr">starting in Augusta his first full year in 2010</a> (at 23 years old, he was old for the league). While he did flash some home run power potential (he hit 21 home runs in 608 plate appearances), he struggled with pitch recognition and plate discipline with the Green Jackets. Mike Newman of Fangraphs and Scouting the Sally <a href="http://scoutingthesally.com/chris-dominguez-san-francisco-giants-baseball-prospects-scouting-notes-video/">said this about Dominguez in his scouting report following the 2010 season</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"After watching him play, I referred back to a <a href="http://saberscouting.wordpress.com/2008/04/02/chrisdominguezreport/">scouting report on Dominguez by Frankie Piliere</a> back in 2008 to find little had changed in the two years since that report was written. Dominguez seemed like the same player he was as a junior in college which leaves me questioning his ability to adjust at a more advanced age than the average “Sally” prospect."</i></blockquote><br />Newman noted his plate discipline issues, especially when he saw breaking pitches. Newman said that Dominguez had "significant problems adjusting to breaking pitches; Even below average breaking balls gave him fits." Despite these issue, with his power, size and arm strength, a lot of experts out there were still high on Dominguez after the 2010 season despite his advanced age for the level.<br /><br />Dominguez made the transition to San Jose in 2011, and predictably (considering the hitter-friendly confines), he did well in the Cal League, posting a slash of .291/.337/.465 with an .802 OPS and 11 home runs in 279 plate appearances. The strong start in San Jose prompted the Giants to promote Dominguez to Richmond, and he got off to a fast start (<a href="http://www.milb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20110627&content_id=21070132&vkey=pr_t3410&fext=.jsp&sid=t3410">he was named Eastern League player of the week</a> after hitting .458 with a home run, seven doubles, a triple and eight RBI during the week ending June 26th). However, he struggled as EL pitchers adjusted to him, as he finished the year with a slash of .244/.272/.403 with a .675 OPS and seven home runs in 313 plate appearances in his tenure with the Flying Squirrels.<br /><br />Tools wise, Dominguez may be the most impressive third base prospect in the Giants system. His power and arm are rated as plus tools by scouts, and at six-foot, three inches and 215 pounds, Dominguez has a big frame and some decent athleticism for his size (though defensively his range is graded as below average). His plate approach seems to be the key to whether or not he will become a future Major League player, as he is known for posting a lot of strikeouts with little walks to counter them (he has a career BB/K ratio of 0.21). Even if he does have "Major-League" power, many wonder if Dominguez will make enough contact as a professional (career minor league contact rate of 74 percent) to ever make use of it.<br /><br /><b>What to Expect for 2012</b>: At 25 years old, Dominguez is one year away from his "peak" year. So far, he has flashed some promising signs (his San Jose campaign, 21 home runs in the Sally, his fast start in Richmond), but for the most part, the negatives of his game (lackluster plate approach, below-average defensive skills, older age for levels played) have outweighed the positives in my mind. Tools-wise, as stated before, he may be better than any other third base prospect in the Giants system (and I'm including Conor Gillaspie). However, I just don't know if he has the plate discipline to adjust to better pitching. His BB/K ratio was an atrocious 0.12 in Richmond last year, and his contact rate was also sub-average at 74 percent. To me, that isn't the sign of a replacement level Major League player, let alone a Major League starting one. Dominguez most likely will start again at Double-A to improve his approach, but he will need to make major strides in his second year in the Eastern League. If he can improve and be more patient at the plate, he could salvage his status a little bit, but I would say at his age, the chips are heavily stacked against him.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-33230501840862971192012-03-23T14:14:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:55.272-07:00Prospect Highlight: Wendell Fairley, OFWith the recent news of <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/matt-bush-arrested-dui-fleeing-scene-accident-111702840.html">former No. 1 overall pick Matt Bush being involved in another alcohol-induced incident,</a> it got me thinking "Who are some high round picks in the Giants system that have really fallen off the past couple of seasons?" The two names that came to mind were Wendell Fairley and Michael Main (whom I'll be covering in another post). Bush has had serious makeup problems since he was drafted, and to be honest, while he has flashed good numbers as a converted pitcher (he used to play shortstop, but hit so poorly the Padres decided to switch him positions), I think his makeup problems (specifically alcohol issues) will prevent him from reaching even a modicum of his potential.<br /><br />(On a side note: I don't understand why this guy has been given so many chances at this point in his career. This was a guy who was arrested at a high school because he showed up drunk, threatened high school kids and then was caught on video camera screaming and crying hysterically as police arrested him. Why would any team touch him, let alone two teams with very smart general managers in the driver's seats? (Though to be fair, Toronto booted him after he broke their zero-tolerance policy they agreed upon when he signed with the Jays; at this point, I think Tampa is probably going to follow suit, especially since they already have some heat on them from acquiring Josh Lueke, a pitcher who allegedly raped someone. Having Lueke, and a guy who apparently hit and run a 72-year-old man on a motorcycle while drunk on the same roster would be a PR nightmare, and Tampa has enough problems drawing fans to the park.)<br /><br />But, to my knowledge, Fairley and Main's issues have simply been ineffectiveness at the professional level, so at least they have that going for them, unlike Bush. That being said, they did come as highly touted picks, and they have hardly lived up to their Draft Day press clippings during their minor league careers so far. Can 2012 be a break out for the both of them, where they finally capture at least SOME of the hype that made them such highly merited first round choices? Or are these two probably destined to be fringe prospects in the Billy Rowell-mold?<br /><br />Let's take a look at Fairley in this post. I'll try to take a stab at Main in one of the next ones sometime this weekend.<br /><br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEYQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.milb.com%2Fmilb%2Fstats%2Fstats.jsp%3Fpos%3D%26sid%3Dt476%26t%3Dp_pbp%26pid%3D518667&ei=MeVsT9ibOYfq2AXKt_2VBg&usg=AFQjCNFA0cfu5Obv2gO6foQgjoI1LAYUkQ">Wendell Fairley</a>, outfielder</b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/sft5MStTaIM" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 24<br /><b>Minor League service time</b>: Three years.<br /><b>Highest level played</b>: Double-A (Richmond)<br /><b>Career minor league stat line</b>: .263 average, .347 OBP, .334 slugging, .681 OPS, 167 runs scored, eight home runs, 24 stolen bases in 367 games and 1,419 plate appearances. <br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C-/D+ (Leaning more toward latter grade though)<br /><b>Projection</b>: Backup outfielder; maybe career minor league player.<br /><br /><br /><b>Why Has Fairley Been Disappointing?</b><br /><br />When drafted in the Giants' pick-heavy 2007 draft, many felt that the Giants got a good steal with Fairley in the 29th slot. Keith Law remarked that Fairley had middle-of-the-first round potential in the draft, but went lower because of signability and some makeup issues (apparently, he had a kid when he was a senior in high school, which to be honest, isn't really all that uncommon with a lot of athletes). A lot of the reports on Fairley were very sterling, as scouts raved about his "five tool" potential as well his athleticism. <a href="http://obsessivegiantscompulsive.blogspot.com/2007/06/giants-2007-draft-6-pick-29-wendell.html">According to OGC's draft day profile on Fairley</a>, scouts remarked that he had "the ability to hit for average and plus power" and that he was a "plus runner" and had defensive skills "perfect for center field."<br /><br />However, there were some concerns about Fairley's game from people, even on draft day. For starters, Fairley was a two sport athlete in high school who also concentrated heavily on football (<a href="http://espn.go.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/evaluation/_/id/39372/wendell-fairley">he was widely recruited by colleges as a wide receiver</a>), and hence, he wasn't as widely known by scouts because of his dual-sport commitments. Also, while sporting "five tool" potential, many experts and people in the Giants organization (even Brian Sabean) admitted that he was very raw and that it would take some time for him to develop into those tools. Still, despite some concerns, the vibe surrounding Fairley's selection was overall very positive, as said in OGC's post:<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"He sounds like the best position prospect that we have had in ages (well, at least before Villalona; won't they make a nice pair of call-ups in 4-6 years, or less?) and he helps makes up for the fact that we passed up a few premier position talents in Dominguez, Heyward, and Mills, particularly Heyward since I've seen a number of descriptions of him being remniscent of Willie McCovey. He's noted as a Top 10-15 pick by talent so he's equivalent enough to them to satisfy me - and I do like Bumgarner and Alderson and the fact that Sabean and Tidrow both noted that they are on the fast track and could advance to the majors in as short as 2 years, so despite them not being college players, they could provide return to the Giants in perhaps even a shorter timeframe, few prospects make the majors in 6 years, let alone 2 years. And there's no way the Giants would have gotten anyone as good as Bumgarner in the 29th pick had they selected any of those three hitters."</i></blockquote><br />Despite the lofty praise and excitement, Fairley's high point seemed to be draft day and it's been downhill since. He held his own in 52 games in the Arizona Rookie League in 2008, posting a .363 wOBA, but his wOBA was mostly helped by a .388 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 0.70. In terms of actually hitting the ball, his numbers were very mediocre, as he hit only .259 and posted a slugging of .337 with only two home runs in 238 plate appearances. So, while Fairley did show a good approach at the plate his first season in Rookie Ball, his lackluster ability to hit for average or show any power in Arizona was a bit of a warning sign.<br /><br />All that came into fruition in his first two full years of professional ball. In Single-A Augusta in 2009, he posted a slash of .243/.323/.333 in 390 plate appearances. Not only did he show little ability to hit for average or power in the Sally (only one more home run despite 152 more plate appearances), but he didn't showcase any of the speed that made scouts grade him a "plus runner" on draft day (only two stolen bases on six attempts). While he did pick it up offensively in San Jose in 2010, improving his slash to .292/.362/.343 in 440 plate appearances, the complete lack of power (one home run all year) and questionable baserunning skills (10 stolen bases on 16 attempts) made him an afterthought in most Giants prospects lists.<br /><br />The Giants had him repeat the year in San Jose in 2011, and though he struggled in his second Cal League campaign (he posted a .245/.329/.317 slash in 242 plate appearances), the Giants still promoted him to Richmond toward the end of the year. Despite the change to the pitcher-friendly environments of the Eastern League, Fairley actually performed a lot better in the EL in 2011 than in the CL, posting a slash of .265/.321/.337 with a .657 OPS in 109 plate appearances. Still though, 2011 provided more of the same: a lot of empty singles and not much extra on the basepaths (only five stolen bases the whole year).<br /><br />When you look at him in person, Fairley seems to have an athletic presence, but he doesn't 'wow' you in the way a typical "five tool" type would. He's not blazing, his frame isn't incredibly strong looking, and his swing is very constricted and illustrates why he has never posted a slugging in the .400 range over his career. He has a slap hitter's swing that makes him a groundball machine. One would hope that management and instruction has tried to work with him on this, but after four years, one has to wonder how much has been taught and how much has changed. From what I've seen from when <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ic97RdACIr4&feature=related">he first started playing professional ball</a>, not a lot has progressed in terms of swing mechanics, which makes me think Fairley's power ceiling and ability to hit extra base hits will sort of stay where it is (i.e. very low). <br /><br /><br /><b>Is There Still Hope for Fairley?</b><br /><br />To be honest, Fairley is one of those prospects that's really hanging on the edge right now in terms of projection. If I have to guess where he ends up, I would probably say he's a career minor leaguer with maybe a backup or utility role in the outfield being his ceiling at this point. He doesn't hit for average, doesn't hit for power, doesn't steal bases, doesn't play excellent defense (he projects more as a corner infielder at this point) and doesn't exactly have the best eye at the plate (though he does seem to adjust with more exposure to pitching, as his BB/K ratio improved in his second year in San Jose). All those are factors that are heavily working against his potential and chances in terms of being a Major League player.<br /><br />However, to be honest, his slash lines haven't been as bad as I initially thought, and Giants fans had to expect Fairley to struggle like this to start out his career. He was so raw when he was drafted that to expect him to come out and mash would be foolish.Yes, the power and speed hasn't developed as well as hoped, but the averages and OBP numbers still give glimmers of hope that he can have some kind of utility for the Giants organization in the future. The glimmer is small and unlikely to project into anything, but to say Fairley is done at 24 years old and after only four seasons (including only 34 games in Double-A) would be a bit rash at this point. <br /><br />There is a lot for Fairley to overcome. To be honest, there are a lot more outfield prospects in the lower minors levels of the Giants system who are younger and with more upside than Fairley at this point, so he has to do a lot to hold them. Minor injuries have seemed to take its toll on Fairley over his career, as was the case last year where he was limited to only 95 games. So, if Fairley can stay healthy and be somewhat effective in Richmond again, there is hope that he can rebound his status as a prospect in 2012. He won't jump up on any Top 30 lists going into 2013, but if he can have a bounce back year where he can post a .270/.340/.380-esque slash, then Fairley will suddenly be an interesting prospect again in the Giants system and not just the "first round" bust he's been known as the past couple of seasons.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-42639857063999683082012-03-22T07:17:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:55.429-07:00Spring Training Notes: Adrianza and Peguero Optioned to Fresno, Villalona to SJWhile these aren't exactly new, I forgot to include them on the last post of Spring Training notes, so I figured it would be good to include them for those who weren't aware. I was just scanning the <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/category/transactions/">Minor League transactions blog of Baseball America </a>and I uncovered these tidbits on the Giants.<br /><br />-- This happened during the week of March 7-12th, but the <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/03/minor-league-transactions-march-6-12/">Giants optioned shortstop Ehire Adrianza and outfielder Francisco Peguero to Triple-A Fresno </a>to start the 2012 season.<br /><br />-- The decision to have Adrianza start in Fresno is a bold maneuver by Giants management. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=adrian001ehi">Adrianza hasn't played above High-A ball</a> (sans a couple game stint in Fresno his first year) in his minor league career, and it was widely assumed that the defensive-oriented shortstop would most likely begin the year in Double-A Richmond. However, the <a href="http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=sf#playerType=ALL&sectionType=sp&statType=fielding&page_type=SortablePlayer&season=2012&season_type=ANY&sportCode=%27mlb%27&league_code=%27MLB%27&split=&team_id=137&active_sw=&game_type=%27S%27&position=%276%27&sortOrder=%27desc%27&sortColumn=fpct&results=&page=1&perPage=50&timeframe=&extended=0&last_x_days=&ts=1332425607588&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+fielding">Giants must have liked his defensive abilities</a>, because his batting stat line was anything but impressive this Spring, as he only played 5 games and had 3 at-bats. In those at-bats, he struck out twice and recorded no hits. While he may start the year with the Grizzlies, I would be mighty surprised to see Adrianza stick in the PCL the whole season.<br /><br />-- Peguero hasn't seen much time with the Major League club this Spring, as it seems like he has mostly been in Minor League camp if you look at the stat line (he has no recorded offensive or defensive stats on the Giants' Spring Training site). The only note I have of Peguero is the fact that<a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/03/20/SPQQ1NN04M.DTL"> he threw out A's catcher Derek Norris in a game</a> (most likely a Minor League one). This decision to have him begin in Triple-A is a mild surprise, since I thought the Giants might start him in Richmond after he only played half a season there. That being said, the Giants must have felt his performance in Double-A was good enough, and warranted a promotion to the PCL.<br /><br />-- Lastly, the Giants <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/03/minor-league-transactions-march-13-19/">optioned first base prospect Angel Villalona to High-A San Jose</a> this week. This also doesn't come as a surprise considering Villalona has been unable to acquire a visa from the U.S. consulate this Spring. It was first reported that he was approved and that he would be able to make it for Spring Training, but due to some physical issues, it has been delayed and Villalona has been stuck in the Dominican Republic this whole Spring Training. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=12a1762a">Villalona last played in San Jose in 2009</a>, so even if he did make it for some workouts this Spring, I think High-A ball was going to be his most likely destination anyways considering he hasn't played professionally since 2009.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-28995579294411112542012-03-21T09:09:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:55.582-07:00Latin America Look: The DPL and a Glimpse Into Latin American ScoutingOne of the most interesting developments in the world of Latin American baseball scouting has to be the <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120201&content_id=26544700&c_id=">emergence of the Dominican Prospect League</a>. I discovered the <a href="http://www.dplbaseball.com/">web site in about February,</a> and to be honest, the organization seems to be doing a lot in terms of raising the standards of scouting and player development in the Dominican Republic.<br /><br />For those who aren't aware, scouting in the Dominican Republic or any other Latin American country for that matter, comes with a considerable amount of risk. There are benefits to the practice of course. For starters, since players in Latin America aren't exposed to the draft (except Puerto Rican players, who are), teams can establish strong baseball connections and even academies in countries which can give them an inside-edge to the players they want to sign and develop in the minors. Furthermore, players from Latin America can sign as early as 16-years-old, so that gives organizations lots of time to expose these raw athletes to instruction and professional playing time. Lastly, while some players command large signing bonuses, for the most part, the prices on Latin American players vary, and organizations can acquire maybe three to four athletic (but raw) players for the price that a first or supplemental round pick would cost in the Rule 4 draft.<br /><br />However, there still remains glaring negatives to scouting and signing players from Latin America. As with the <a href="http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/14/2871248/fausto-carmona-charges-dropped-and-contract-adjusted">recent example of Fausto Carmona</a> (who is now Roberto Hernandez Heredia), identity issues are a huge problem in Latin America. Because of shaky governments and infrastructure, birth records are very spotty in most Latin countries, and it has been common place for players and their managers to lie about their name, age and identity in order to acquire larger signing bonuses (after all, a 16 year old player is going to command a bigger bonus than an 18 year old because that 16 year old has two more years of development). The Giants have fallen victim to this a couple of times as well, with the biggest example being former top pitching prospect Merkin Valdez, who originally went by the name Manny Mateo when he was in the Braves' system. However, the Mateo name was false, and Valdez actually was a couple of years older than his stated age (the Giants still kept him in their system though despite the false claims).<br /><br />While the identity issues have been a big concern, another problem with prospects signing from Latin America has been their struggles with issues back home. Of course, as a baseball fan and human being, one has to feel for their situation, and understands the pressure that they probably feel with so many people relying on them back home for money and support (if you haven't watched the movie "<a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDMQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.imdb.com%2Ftitle%2Ftt0990413%2F&ei=HvtpT4jFBqaI2gXRv8mRCQ&usg=AFQjCNHQt0ryPmDGwEf9Xbqclqoq2Pq9Lw">Sugar</a>," you should; it will give you a good perspective of the challenges for these Latin prospects). That being said, sometimes the influences go beyond them sending home money that they should be saving for themselves. As Angel Villalona and Alfredo Simon have showed in the past couple of years, their huge statuses as baseball players in their home countries have gotten them into legal trouble as well. Both Villalona and Simon were involved in murder cases in the past couple of years. While Simon has still remained stateside, Villalona has been stuck in the DR, unable to reacquire a visa.<br /><br />But, probably the biggest reason why a lot of teams don't invest too heavily in Latin America is simply the fact that the prospects are either huge booms or busts. After all, it's hard to project how a player will develop at 16 years old. Will he get stronger? Will he be able to handle a professional environment? Can he handle the language and cultural transition? Will he be able to handle the pressure of being paid six figures or more as a teenager? There are so many risk factors that are working against these prospects before they even pitch a single inning or take a professional at-bats.<br /><br />Hence, that is why I don't understand why Major League Baseball wants to regulate scouting in Latin America. It is such a huge risk to begin with, and I believe that risk downgrades any kind of upside any Big Market team (Red Sox, Yankees) would have in terms of "dominating" a certain Latin area. Sure, they may dominate and be able to outspend on players in comparison to other organizations, but considering the success rate of players and their high volatility, is scouting in Latin America any better in terms of building a successful organization than the draft or spending on Free Agents? Probably not. If a team wants to spend their money in Latin American scouting, they should be free to do so as much as possible. However, their spending will also be hurt in another area, which likely will be in the draft or free agency, so that will balance things out for other teams who may get outspent in Latin America. They can have their advantage in the draft or in free agency in terms of building a competitive team.<br /><br />But, back to the DPL, from what it seems like, this seems to be a great resource and organization not just for the prospects in the DR, but scouts as well. First off, we have seen what the "travel" circuit is like for high school amateurs, and it seems like the DPL is trying to replicate that: the DPL consists of teams with the "top" talent 18 and under in the DR and they not only play games against one another in "showcases" for scouts in the DR, but they also travel around Latin America and even to the states to participate in showcases against American high school competition. The whole spirit of the DPL "showcases" seems to be similar to what we see from events like the "Area Code" games, which only increases the profiles of these Latin prospects, while also giving more scouts more viewing time of these prospects in action.<br /><br />So far, the DPL has been very successful in terms of getting their players signed to good bonuses. Texas Rangers first base/outfielder prospect, Ronald Guzman, signed a $3.5 million signing bonus last Winter. Adalberto Mondesi, the son of Raul Mondesi, is a shortstop whom the Royals signed for $2 million. And the Jays and international director of scouting Marco Paddy have really been active with the DPL as they have signed prospects such as shortstops Dawel Lugo (who signed for $1.3 million) and Ronniel Demorizi (who signed for $105,000). Guzman, Mondesi and Lugo were all ranked in the Top 20 of the Minor League Baseball Analysts' 2011-2012 Top International Prospects list.<br /><br />As for the Giants, they have already established connections with the DPL, as they signed outfielder Carlos Valdez last Winter to a $325,000 signing bonus. Valdez is a five-tool type of player who has a solid, athletic frame, but still a lot of room for development. Thanks to the DPL, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GVUeGF0dIE">there is ample video</a> and <a href="http://www.dplbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=233%3Adominican-prospect-league-players-agree-to-terms&catid=1%3Alatest-news&Itemid=1">information</a> on Valdez via their Web site, which makes it a lot easier for me and other Giants fans to get excited about Valdez's potential.<br /><br />So what do I think about the Dominican Prospect League overall? To be honest, I think this is really good for baseball in Latin America, and I'm hoping more and more countries follow suit (Venezuela seems like the next destination for another organization like this one). It allows more exposure to these talented Latin prospects who often go under the radar and unrecognized until they hit the mid minors. Furthermore, for people who are really into prospects (such as me), the DPL also gives us an idea of who to be watching out for in the Dominican Summer League as well as other Rookie Leagues. It still doesn't compare to the exposure high school and college prospects get here in the states (thanks to sites like <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.perfectgame.org%2F&ei=O_xpT9HCHsOe2wXynLmOCQ&usg=AFQjCNEjNhn09FBZgey5jLkHnzhNp4DiAA">Perfect Game</a>), but it is a heck of a lot better than what we were getting a few years ago before the DPL was really established.<br /><br />The only negative I think we could see is for organizations, as the increased hype and visibility of these prospects will only result in higher signing bonuses for these players. With more videos on profiles out there on these prospects, courtesy of the DPL, more and more organizations will be exposed to these prospects which will increase the competition when it comes to bidding for their playing rights. Before the DPL, it would mostly be one team scouting a player, and thus, they would have a lot of control when it came to the negotiation of signing bonuses (e.g. "Nobody else knows about you, so you have to play for our price or don't play at all." method). Now, with the DPL showcases, site and videos on these prospects, players and their managers will have a lot more freedom in the negotiation process. Teams who scout a player more will have more leverage of course (a player is likely to sign with a team that scouts them the most and shows the most interest), but they won't have that complete or absolute leverage like before. <br /><br />It will be interesting to see how the DPL continues to develop as the years progress. Without a doubt, how their alums pan out as professionals will be the biggest factor in terms of whether the DPL continues to develop or starts to fade. If the success rate of players who played in the DPL is high, undoubtedly the organization will gain more reputability, which only mean more talent coming their way, as well as higher signing bonuses for their prospects. If the the success rate is low, the organization could take a hit, and all the exposure will undoubtedly fade when teams start to pull their checkbooks away from their players. (I mean, who would want to spend on players from an organization that doesn't produce successful Major Leaguers?) So, these next five years will be crucial, and the progress of top DPL alums like Guzman, Mondesi and Lugo could boost or hinder the viability of the organization for the future.<br /><br />Nonetheless, I really love the idea of the DPL and I think it's going to be setting in motion a lot of good things for prospects and scouts in Latin America. There are a lot of talented players in Latin America and the more talent teams (and especially the Giants, who have been very active in Latin America the past seven or so years) acquire from this area, the better baseball will be here, both internationally and domestically.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-44579728440521519212012-03-20T07:59:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:55.731-07:00Spring Training Notes: Cuts and a Look at the Giants Prospects This SpringSo, I figure with Opening Day and with final roster cuts coming up, it would be a good time to see who has done well and who has struggled this Spring out of the prospects invited to Spring Training. Here are a few points in "bullet form."<br /><br />-- As noted in the title, <a href="http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120318&content_id=27395566&notebook_id=27395570&vkey=notebook_sf&c_id=sf">the Giants made another round of cuts</a>, optioning pitcher Hector Correa and outfielder Tyler Graham to Triple-A to Fresno (title of the blog alert!). The news on those two isn't too much of a surprise considering the Giants bullpen and outfield is pretty crowded as it is, and those two were long shots to make the 25-man this Spring. Correa struck out three in 2.1 innings of work, while also allowing one run on three hits and two walks. While Graham impressed with his abilities in the field, he never could get comfortable at the plate this Spring, as he only had two hits and one walk in 15 at-bats.<br /><br />-- The Giants also made some assignments to Minor League camp last Sunday. On the list were infielders Chris Dominguez and Nick Noonan, catcher Jackson Williams, outfielder Juan Perez, and pitchers Matt Yourkin, Mitch Lively and Justin Fitzgerald.<br /><br />-- The most impressive performer of the bunch was Perez, who posted a slash of .455/.538/.909 in nine games and 11 at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also added a home run, a triple and a stolen base to his stat total this Spring. The Spring is a nice sign for Perez who is coming off a down year in Richmond where he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances. The previous season, Perez gained some steam as an under the radar prospect after hitting .298 with an .809 OPS in 596 plate appearances with the San Jose Giants. While he is a bit of an older prospect (he's going to be 25 this year), Perez has some very Andres Torres-esque qualities in the sense that he has good speed (22 stolen bases a year ago) and some pop for a guy of his diminutive stature. Whether he starts in Richmond or Fresno, I think Perez could have a bounce back year in 2012, and this Spring was certainly a good sign for such a breakout.<br /><br />-- On March 16th, <a href="http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120316&content_id=27348464&notebook_id=27348468&vkey=notebook_sf&c_id=sf">the Giants sent top prospect Gary Brown to Minor League camp</a>. Though he is the consensus No. 1 Giants prospect on most experts' lists and a Top-50 prospect in baseball, the move isn't a surprise considering Brown's highest level of play is the Cal League. With Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera being acquired this off-season, and with Gregor Blanco's hot spring, Brown's shot of making the 25-man roster was very slim and unlikely to begin with. In seven games with the Big League squad this Spring, Brown had two hits in 11 at-bats, both singles. While he did have a stolen base, he was caught stealing twice on three attempts. One of the big things Brown needs to work on is being more efficient on the basepaths, as he was caught 19 times last year. With his 80 scout grade speed, that is just way too much. Hopefully the Giants worked with him on some things this Spring that will make him more efficient this upcoming season.<br /><br />-- Of the non-roster invitee prospects in the Giants system, the biggest performer had to be Tommy Joseph, who had two home runs in nine at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also showed a solid eye at the plate, walking twice and only striking out once. Considering that his biggest weakness as a hitter was the questionable plate discipline, this Spring was an encouraging sign for him this upcoming year as he makes the move from the Cal to the Eastern League.<br /><br />-- In terms of pitching prospects, the results have been a little mixed. Eric Surkamp was expected to battle for the fifth spot in the Giants' rotation, but he hasn't stood out amazingly this Spring. While he has displayed flashes of the command that made him such a great prospect in the Cal and Eastern League (he has struck out 11 and only walked 3 in 11.1 innings of work), he has still proven to be too hittable when facing Major League hitters. He allowed 13 hits and six runs in four appearances and two starts this year. It is likely that he will start the year in Fresno.<br /><br />-- On the other end, Heath Hembree came on with a fury this Spring, striking out seven in five innings of work while only walking one and allowing two hits and a run. With Brian Wilson showing some arm issues this Spring, Hembree made a case why he should be considered in the Giants bullpen as soon as this year. If Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez show any signs of struggle, don't be surprised to see Hembree get a call up to the big league roster sooner rather than later. He may be the third best right handed reliever on the Giants roster behind Wilson and Sergio Romo.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-6576904635179616042012-03-16T13:34:00.000-07:002018-07-30T08:17:55.877-07:00OTF Top 30: No. 11-15; Culberson, Gillaspie, Mejia, Blackburn, OsichSo it's been 11 days since my last post. It's been a weird month, and it's been hard to just find time to really sit down and post (not to mention tweet). For the sake of time interests, I've decided to streamline the rankings profiles a bit now. First off, I would like to have as many of the rankings up before Opening Day. Secondly, when you get deeper and deeper in the rankings, less and less information is available, so it's harder to come up with as in-depth profiles like the ones in the Top-10.<br /><br />Hopefully, the posting will be a little more consistent from here on out.<br /><br /><br /><b>No. 11: <a href="http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=518586#gameType=%27S%27">Charlie Culberson, Second Base</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C+<br /><b>Projection</b>: Utility infielder; at best, starting second base. At worst, career backup.<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Culberson, the former supplemental round pick (2007 Draft), has had an up and down career as an infielder in the Giants system. Originally drafted as a shortstop, inconsistent defense forced a move from the position after the 2008 season in Augusta (he ended up playing third base in 2009 with the Green Jackets, until he ended up settling at Second Base in San Jose). The main problem with Culberson's defense is that he is too error prone, as he committed 75 errors in between his two campaigns in the Sally in 2009 and 2010. That being said, the move to second base has been worthwhile, as he has only committed 28 errors the past two years at the Keystone in San Jose and Richmond, which has improved his fielding percentages to .975 and .978 the past two years (in comparison, his fielding percentages in Augusta were .901 and .900, respectively).<br /><br />Offensively, things started slow for Culberson, as the Sally seemed to overwhelm him as a hitter just out of high school. In two stints with the Green Jackets, he posted OPS numbers of .599 and .598, and he displayed little power (312.5 average slugging in Augusta), ability to hit for average (.240 batting average in two seasons in Single-A) and a poor approach at the plate (0.31 average BB/K ratio in Augusta). Much like fellow 2007 pick Wendell Fairley, many people felt that Culberson simply didn't have the offensive skills to project into a Major League player.<br /><br />However, in 2010, Culberson broke out in all kinds of ways in the California League. He improved defensively with the transition to second base, becoming at least average defensively at the position. The biggest improvement though came offensively, as he hit 16 home runs, and posted a slash of .290/.334/.457 in 503 at-bats in San Jose. While the plate approach was still skeptical (0.33 BB/K ratio), the increased power (career high .167 ISO) as well as speed on the basepaths (25 stolen bases), gave some scouts and experts that Culberson could have 20-20 home run-stolen base potential in the mold of Dustin Pedroia, or at the very least 15-15 potential.<br /><br />Of course, as mentioned before on this blog, Cal League stats always have to be taken with a grain of salt. While he did follow up his Cal League dominance with an excellent showing in the Arizona Fall League (he posted a .366/.394/.591 slash with two home runs and 21 runs scored in 99 plate appearances with the Scorpions), the Eastern League pitching proved to be dominating for him to replicate his High-A numbers. He regressed to post a slash of .259/.287/.382 in 553 at-bats, and his plate approach suffered, as he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.17, a career low.<br /><br />While some would write off Culberson completely, I was actually a little comforted in some ways by his 2011 campaign in Richmond, and still hold some hope that he can turn into a good Major League player in a year or two. First off, he was still two years younger than the competition in the Eastern League (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=5dc484dd">average hitter's age is 24</a>), and while is power regressed, it didn't fall off a cliff like some hitters who make the transition from the Cal to the Eastern League. He still hit 10 home runs, and his ISO only dipped 44 points, not terrible considering his previous high ISO in the Sally was .085. He also made the Eastern League All-Star team, an honor that displayed that his season wasn't downright terrible by any stretch of the imagination.<br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012:</b> It's tough to gauge where Culberson will be in 2012. An early injury in the beginning of work outs has kept him out of Spring Training so far, and it's likely that he won't be ready until the end of Spring Training as well. There was some hope that with a good Spring, Culberson could have made the transition to Triple-A to start the year. Now, it looks like he'll be in extended Spring Training and most likely starting out the year in Double-A again. While starting out in Double-A could be a good thing, Culberson needs to make some kind of transition upward this year, either to Triple-A (the most likely scenario) or to the Majors. The latter is probably a stretch, especially when you consider Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theirot and Emmanuel Burriss are ahead of him on the organizational depth chart at the Major League and Triple-A level. However, there needs to be a sign of improvement and a leap of some sort for Culberson as a prospect in 2012. While he is still only 23 years old, this will be his sixth full season as a professional. If he cannot build off the campaign in Richmond a year ago, it's probably likely to think that Culberson won't amount to much at the Major League level. If he does, then he and Joe Panik could be battling for the keystone position when Sanchez leaves town.<br /><br /><br /><b>No. 12: <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543216">Conor Gillaspie, Third Base</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C+<br /><b>Projection</b>: Utility infielder/outfielder; could start at third base or a corner outfield position in right situation.<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Originally a highly heralded supplemental round pick in the 2008 draft (he was the Giants' second pick after Buster Posey), Gillaspie's career has started slow, but really picked up the past two seasons. After getting a peek at the Major League level in 2008 shortly after being drafted (a Major League callup was written into his contract in order for him to sign at a lower bonus), Gillaspie struggled in all areas of his game in 2009 in San Jose. He committed 27 errors at third base in 116 games, and he only posted a slash of .286/.364/.386 in 530 plate appearances. Despite the hitter-friendly environments, Gillaspie displayed little to no power ability in his first full year, as he only hit four home runs and posted a measly ISO of .100.<br /><br />While the lack of power or defensive ability hurt his stock greatly in 2009, he did display a solid eye at the plate (0.81 BB/K ratio) and a strong ability to make contact (86 percent contact rate). When he made the transition to the Eastern League in 2010, he was able to transition those skills for the most part. While his BB/K ratio dipped a little, it still remained above average at 0.55, and his contact percentage remained unchanged at 86 percent. Furthermore, one of the reasons for the dip in BB/K ratio was he increased his aggressiveness at the plate, which resulted in a lower walk rate (from 10 to 7 percent), but increased power (.132 ISO). In fact, he doubled his home run total from the Cal League in the Eastern League (from 4 to 8), and his slugging and OPS numbers both improved from San Jose as well (to .420 and .757). Considering most prospects' power numbers go the opposite direction in the transition from the CL to the EL, the improvement was a promising sign that Gillaspie wasn't finished yet.<br /><br />2011 proved to be Gillaspie's best year as a professional, as he posted his best overall numbers as a Minor Leaguer in Fresno. He hit 11 home runs and posted a slash of .297/.391/.453 with an OPS of .844. His contact rate dipped to 82 percent, but he posted career highs in walk percentage at 13 percent, BB/K ratio at 0.84, and ISO at .157. His stellar campaign with the Grizzlies earned him a callup to the Big Leagues, and he held his own in 19 at-bats, posting a slash of .263/.333/.421 with two walks, only one strikeout, and five hits, including an inside the park home run.<br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012</b>: Gillaspie doesn't hold much room for projection at 24 years old. He is a polished offensive player that displays a strong ability to make contact and a great eye at the plate. However, while his power has started to develop since that lackluster 2009 campaign in San Jose, his upside probably remains at 10-15 home runs a year, and he doesn't offer much speed on the basepaths or athleticism on the field to boot. This proves to be a problem, because defensively, he doesn't really project to be more than a corner infielder or outfielder, and he certainly doesn't have the power tool set to justify consistent playing time at the positions. Gillaspie could be a player in the Bill Mueller-mold (corner infielder who gets on-base and hits for average despite wielding below-average power for their position), but those kinds of players tend to be very rare, and get even fewer opportunities. At the same time, Gillaspie most likely will (and should) get some more playing time at the Major League level in 2012 (though, most likely, he will start the year in Fresno barring injury to someone this Spring). Hopefully, he'll get some more playing time at other positions in Triple-A to maximize his value when he gets the call up some point this year.<br /><br /><br /><b>No. 13: <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=606167">Adalberto Mejia, Left-handed pitcher</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall grade</b>: C+<br /><b>Projection</b>: No. 2-3 starting pitcher.<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: A Dominican bonus baby who was signed for $350,000 in 2011 by scout Pablo Peguero (who was also responsible for signing outfielders Francisco Peguero and Rafael Rodriguez), Mejia is still a project of sorts who is a long ways away in terms of being fully developed. Furthermore, while he does offer some upside, at his age and where he's at in his professional career, he still carries considerable risk as a prospect (Baseball America, which ranked him 26 in their prospect handbook, graded his risk factor as extreme).<br /><br />However, Mejia simply dominated as a pitcher in the Dominican Summer League, most likely earning himself a ticket to the Arizona Rookie League and/or Short-Season Salem Keizer this year. While DSL stats can't be taken too seriously (any rookie league numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt), Mejia displayed impeccable control for an 18 year old who had just signed that season. He only allowed eight walks in 76 innings pitched, good for a walk percentage of 0.9 and a K/BB ratio of 8.9. Just to compare, Joan Gregorio, a right handed prospect who has been ranked higher than Mejia on most lists, allowed nine more walks (17) in two less innings pitched when he threw in the DSL in 2011, and posted a K/BB ratio 6.5 points lower than Mejia (2.4). So, while the numbers can't be weighted too heavily, one can't dismiss Mejia's advanced approach completely either.<br /><br />Tools wise, Mejia is still raw, as he throws a fastball that goes in the 87-91 MPH range that touches 92 MPH. Furthermore, he has a decent changeup and is working on his slider, which right now is still more of a slurve, according to reports from Baseball America. That being said, he is still 18 and growing into his Six-foot, three inch frame. As he gets older and exposed to more professional instruction when he makes the transition stateside, it is likely that his pitching repertoire and ability will get better. His approach has already received good marks, so the Giants will be starting with an already solid foundation.<br /><br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012</b>: Mejia is still years away from the Big Leagues, and with most Latin American prospects, his future could go either way. Just judging from his numbers and the early reports, Mejia has that upside to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, though he probably doesn't have the front line stuff or size to be a No.1 (though as stated before, he could gain more velocity as he continues to develop physically). I expect the Giants to take things conservatively with Mejia, and I don't really see him pitching beyond the Northwest League in 2012. However, if he continues to transition his command and control to the states, I wouldn't be surprised to see him be more of a riser in more prospect lists going into 2013.<br /><br /><br /><b>No. 14 <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CE0QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.milb.com%2Fmilb%2Fstats%2Fstats.jsp%3Fsid%3Dmilb%26t%3Dp_pbp%26pid%3D607185&ei=kKJjT9TPE-GC2AWw5fiyDg&usg=AFQjCNHiQihiE2JCY6-uvW1HDxSJJ5QZIw">Clayton Blackburn, right-handed pitcher</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: C+<br /><b>Projection</b>: No. 2/3 Starter; reliever at worst<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft, the prep arm out of Oklahoma (the same state that produced top picks Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley in the 2011 draft) probably had the biggest pitching breakout out of the Giants' picks in 2011 (Joe Panik had the biggest breakout overall).<br /><br />After signing, Blackburn made his debut in the Arizona Rookie League, and much like Mejia in the DSL, Blackburn displayed impeccable command and control for an 18 year old. In 33 innings pitched, he struck out 30 and walked only 3 batters total. (That's right, Three!) In addition, he only gave up 4.6 hits per nine innings and posted a BB/K ratio of 10. While it was only a 33 inning sample in Rookie ball, the stellar campaign had a lot of experts around the web and league wondering why Blackburn didn't go higher in the 2011 draft (though to be fair to other teams, it did seem like he was for sure going to honor his commitment to the University of Oklahoma going into the draft).<br /><br />At six-foot, three inches and 220 pounds, his frame hints at front line rotation potential, or at the very least, middle of the rotation status. He has a four pitch arsenal, sporting a 90-93 MPH fastball, a good curve ball, and a slider and changeup, according to Rob Gordon of the MiLBA. Furthermore, while he didn't blow hitters away totally in his stint, Blackburn has excellent life on his pitches, and induces groundballs at an impressive rate (his GO/AO was 2.58 in 2011).<br /><br />The main concern right now with Blackburn seems to be his size, for at 220 pounds, he is a bit on the heavy side, and isn't particularly athletic. Baseball America notes that he'll have to watch his conditioning in order to maintain and build stamina as a starting pitcher, especially as he makes the transition to full-season ball.<br /><br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012</b>: Blackburn is a big, young, high-ceiling arm that fits the mold of many former pitching prospects in the Giants organization (i.e. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner). While he doesn't have the upside of supplemental round pick Kyle Crick, Blackburn is a legitimate pitching prospect who has an advanced feel and repertoire for somebody his age. He most likely will begin the year in Low-A Augusta, which probably is the right track for him considering his youth. As noted before, his conditioning and stamina will be key things to keep an eye on in 2012, for a lot of his value is tied to him being a starter. If he can't keep the stamina to be a starting pitcher over a full year, his stock will take a hit. That being said, I am confident that he will stay in shape, and he could have a solid year in the Green Jackets' rotation in 2012.<br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>No. 15: <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDMQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.osubeavers.com%2Fsports%2Fm-basebl%2Fmtt%2Fosich_josh00.html&ei=25xjT9b8F8ru2gXH8KnhCA&usg=AFQjCNE6APwesSy0SzdVam0m6vY3eL1n2Q">Josh Osich, Left-handed pitcher</a></b><br /><br /><b>Overall grade</b>: C+<br /><b>Projection</b>: No. 4-5 starter; reliever<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: A sixth round pick, Osich had the makings of a first or second round draft choice going into the 2011 draft. However, Tommy John surgery in 2010, and arm concerns at the end of his 2011 season at Oregon State, scared off a lot of teams, and the Giants came in and swooped him up in the sixth round. Though he didn't play professionally last year, Osich did sign for $450,000 and passed a physical, so as of now, everything points to Osich being healthy and ready for the 2012 season.<br /><br />As a pitcher, Osich had stretches of dominance during his time with the Beavers. He threw a no-hitter against powerhouse UCLA in 2011, and struck out 79 batters in 76.4 innings pitched his junior season. While he did post an ERA of 3.64 in 2011, his BB/K ratio remained decent at 2.32, and he only allowed 62 hits the entire year as well. Considering this was his first year coming off TJ surgery, and he couldn't really throw his breaking stuff due to the surgery, the numbers were a promising sign.<br /><br />Right now, the big dilemma for the Giants is whether to break in Osich as a reliever or starter. Though he started in college and has starting potential, his injury concerns (he was pulled from an NCAA regional game in 2011 after one inning) probably will regulate Osich to the bullpen at least initially. Osich sports a three pitch arsenal, with a 92-95 MPH fastball that has been rated as four plus by Rob Gordon, and a slider and changeup. Baseball America noted that he didn't throw the slider very much last year due to injury concerns, and hence, that could have been the reason it wasn't graded very highly or very effective in 2011. Now that he has had a full year of play since TJ, it wouldn't be surprising to see his breaking stuff, especially his slider, become a more valuable part of his arsenal as a professional.<br /><br /><br /><b>What to Expect in 2012</b>: I am a big fan of Osich. <a href="http://optionedtofresno.blogspot.com/search/label/Josh%20Osich">I did a profile write-up on him</a> going into the 2012 draft pick, and I thought he was worth spending a second round pick on, if available. The fact that the Giants got him in the sixth round to me is a steal (though as noted, we did spend second round money on him with his signing bonus). The health issues are a concern of course, but Osich has very good stuff and I think his secondary pitches will be even better now that he will be two years removed from TJ surgery that cost him his 2010 college season. I think the Giants will take things slow with him and start him in the bullpen, and in the Sally, just to be on the safe side. Though to be frank, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him pitch in High-A ball, simply due to his status as a high-round, college prospect.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-16352410182892272302012-03-05T20:23:00.000-08:002018-07-30T08:17:56.027-07:00OTF Top 30: No. 10, Hector Sanchez, CNo. 10: <b><a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l135&t=p_pbp&pid=516949">Hector Sanchez, catcher</a></b><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="274" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/UOqRfC-pc_0" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 22<br /><b>Country</b>: Venezuela<br /><b>Signed</b>: 2006<br /><b>2011 Regular Season numbers</b>: .302 average, .338 OBP, .533 slugging, .871 OPS, .369 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 31 runs scored, 11 home runs, 58 RBI (High-A); .261 average, .315 OBP, .340 slugging, .655 OPS, .290 wOBA, 58 wRC+, 15 runs scored, 1 home run, 15 RBI (Triple-A); .258 average, .324 OBP, .646 OPS, .292 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 0 runs scored, 0 home runs, 1 RBI (Majors)<br /><b>2011 Fall/Winter Season numbers</b>: .339 average, .402 OBP, .548 slugging, .950 OPS, 0.49 BB/K ratio, 29 runs scored, 9 home runs, 39 RBI (Venezuela Winter League).<br /><br /><br /><b>Why you should know about Sanchez in 2012?</b><br /><br />Sanchez probably was the highest riser in the Giants system last year. After being left out of the Top-30 Giants prospects list in Baseball America, he jumped all the way to No. 10 this year after playing in the California League, Pacific Coast League and Majors last season. Sanchez is the no. 3 rated catcher according to most analysts and publications, but Sanchez may be the most Major League-ready out of the catching prospects in the Giants system. With Buster Posey's long-term career at catcher in doubt after his horrendous injury a year ago, and with Chris Stewart and Eli Whiteside not very viable backup options behind the plate, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sanchez harness himself a backup backstop position as soon as this season.<br /><br /><br /><b>What are Sanchez's strengths as a prospect?</b><br /><br />Sanchez is coming off a solid, overall season in 2011 and an eye-popping VWL campaign where he hit .330 along with nine home runs. Sanchez profiles very similarly to Pablo Sandoval when Sandoval was a catching prospect in the sense that he doesn't have a ton of power, but he makes good contact at the plate (plus 80 percent contact rate at every level sans his San Jose campaign last year). Furthermore, like Sandoval, while he doesn't draw huge walk rates (he's been around eight percent for his minor league career), he doesn't strike out a whole lot either.<br /><br />While the power was always a question with Sanchez early in his minor league career, he did post 11 home runs in 212 at-bats in San Jose, which was six more than the total he hit in Augusta in 310 at-bats in 2010. While the power may be a product of the league, Sanchez could be a guy who could hit 10-15 home runs a year with regular playing time (Rob Gordon rated his power as a four-plus). Furthermore, he is only 22 years old, so his power may develop as he gets older in a similar fashion to Sandoval (who was not a highly graded power hitter in the minors).<br /><br />For the most part, his defense had earned solid, though not spectacular grades. His arm has garnered rave reviews, as <a href="http://scoutingthesally.com/hector-sanchez-san-francisco-giants-baseball-prospect-scouting-report-video/">Mike Newman noted this about him in his scouting report</a> when Sanchez was manning the backstop as a Green Jacket in 2010:<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"In game action, Sanchez beamed a 1.93 to second base to gun down a Sand Gnats baserunner attempting to steal second base which left scouts looking at each other speechless. Between innings, Sanchez continued to display a strong arm and quick feet. His transfer needs a bit of work, but behind Christian Bethancourt, Sanchez had the best pop times I saw all season."</i></blockquote><br /><br />In terms of receiving, Newman noted that Sanchez needed a lot of work in terms of technique (Newman noted that he "tended to stab at the ball"), but reports were much better in 2011, as Baseball America noted that he "blocks the ball well" in their Prospect Handbook for 2012. Gordon noted that he is a bit raw in terms of his receiving and blocking skills, so it may be a matter of just getting more experience behind the plate for Sanchez in terms of improving defensively. While he may not be graded as high defensively as an Andrew Susac, he may turn out better than Tommy Joseph, whose defense improved in 2011, but is still a major question mark for him as a prospect as he moves forward.<br /><br />Also, there are a lot of intangibles that work greatly in Sanchez's favor. His callup and exposure to the Big Leagues gave him some nice professional experience, and he held his own well, both offensively and defensively, a big plus considering he was playing in the Sally the previous year. Furthermore, Baseball America noted that despite limited English he communicates extremely well with pitchers. When you think about how much is invested in the Giants staff, that kind of report only bodes well in his favor in terms of earning playing time at the next level.<br /><br /><br /><b>Where might Sanchez struggle?</b><br /><br />Sanchez still needs a lot of development as a prospect, and his callup could be more hurtful than beneficial in the long run. We have seen prospects get rushed to the big leagues too soon, and though Sanchez didn't hurt his stock with the Giants, he certainly looked like a guy who needed some work in the minors. While the most likely destination for him to begin 2012 is in Fresno, he could earn a backup position with a good Spring Training (and so far, he's off to a good start). While some would say that Sanchez being a backup justifies his status and development as a prospect, I would also take it (should it happen) with some prudence, mainly because he's going to have limited at-bats, and limited opportunities considering Posey is a premium player at the position. He could be above-average as a Major League backup this year, but with more seasoning in the minors, he could turn out to be a good catcher at the Major League level in the future.<br /><br />As noted, defensively he has gotten mixed reports, though he has gotten better. The one main concern about Sanchez is his frame, as he is 5-foot, 11 inches but sits at 225 pounds. Newman noted this in his report, hinting that his weight could have affected him defensively in 2010. While the Giants training staff has had success in terms of getting guys into playing shape (Sandoval being the prime example), his weight is going to be a concern as he gets older and moves up the system. If Sanchez can stay in shape, then his future will look bright and undoubtedly, his defensive skills will continue their upward progression. If not, then his stock as well as defense could slip, especially considering how difficult the position is on the body.<br /><br />Another tool that is a bit of a question mark is Sanchez's power. While the 11 home runs in San Jose are nice, inflated power numbers are typical for prospects in the Cal League (and he didn't touch the 10 mark at any other level, and that included ISO numbers, which are pretty pedestrian when you look beyond San Jose). Because he didn't play in Double-A in 2011, it is hard to gauge how much of Sanchez's power is for real, and how much is just due to a hitter-friendly environment. Sanchez most likely will not be a 20-plus home run hitter in his career. That being said, at this point, just judging from his SJ and VWL numbers, it is plausible that he could hit up to 15 home runs with regular playing time. Then again, he could be a 6-8 home run hitter, as his extra base hit percentage never topped 31 sans his SJ campaign. 2012 should be a good gauge for Giants fans and management to see what kind of power Sanchez will bring to the table as a catching prospect.<br /><br /><br /><b>Grades on Sanchez's tools:</b><br /><br /><u>Hitting for average/contact ability</u>: <b>15/20 </b>(He has showed a strong ability to make contact in the minors, but he has only hit over .300 in the DSL and High-A ball. Sanchez tends to hit too many ground balls, so that severely drops his value. However, he's not a big whiffer, and if he can continue to hone his approach at the plate, it's plausible to think that he could be a .260-.270 hitter at the next level, which would be good for a catcher.)<br /><u>Power</u>: <b>13/20</b> (I'm selling low on this simply because I think his Cal League stats were a product of power inflation. That being said, I didn't think he'd be more than a single-digit home run, sub-.400 slugging hitter prior to 2011, and the strides he made last year and this Winter in the VWL have me thinking differently. If the power continues to trend upward, then Giants could have a nice little bat with some pop off the bench in 2012.)<br /><u>Plate approach</u>: <b>17/20 (</b>Other than his arm, this is probably his best tool set. He has consistently posted good BB/K ratios in the minors and that transitioned in his stint in the Majors. The main reason I believe his power could develop is because his plate approach is already so developed for his age. I don't give him an A-ranking because while it's good, it certainly isn't spectacular by any means. That being said, I think his plate approach will continue to carry him at the plate as he gets more experience in the high minors and majors.)<br /><u>Speed</u>: <b>11/20</b> (He's a catcher and he has zero career stolen bases in the minors. Furthermore, with his size, he may be a bit of a base clogger if he doesn't maintain weight. But like I said, he is a catcher, so we shouldn't expect too much out of this grade.)<br /><u>Defense</u>: <b>16/20</b> (His arm is a plus tool of his. His receiving and blocking still need work. But like his power, they're trending upward and he'll only get better with more and more innings behind the plate.)<br /><u>Health/Makeup/Intangibles</u>: <b>18/20</b> (He gets good reviews for his game-calling and work with pitchers, and his improvement in all areas of his game last season despite being an unheralded prospect going into 2011 certainly bode well for his future. At this moment, my gut tells me he's a better option than Whiteside or Stewart, but as I said before, I am hesitant to rush him because I don't want the Giants to hinder his development.)<br /><br /><br /><b>Overall Grade</b>: B-<br /><b>Projection</b>: Utility catcher most likely, but with good chance to be a starting catcher if he continues to impress in 2012. At the very worst, a career backup.<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: I like Sanchez a lot. Originally, I graded him as a C+, but I amped it up to a B- because I really think he can be a good starting catcher at the Major League level. He doesn't have to potential or upside of a Posey, Joseph or even Susac, but he should be at least above replacement level, which is a heck of a lot better than what the Giants have gotten or will get out of Stewart or Whiteside. 2012 will be an important year, and while I don't think it's a make or break season by any means (remember he's still only 22 years old), he does need to continue to produce offensively and defensively. Any set backs this year would be a huge blow to his future.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-45235849872805291772012-03-04T09:18:00.000-08:002018-07-30T08:17:56.174-07:00Prospect Highlight: Angel Villalona, 1B<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TEm8VsIO--M" width="480"></iframe><br /><br />I got this idea from <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://obsessivegiantscompulsive.blogspot.com/&sa=U&ei=-KFTT8_WM4qDsALHzI3wBQ&ved=0CBEQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNF5PQ946miBPV_fuKnWNJpfxo2y9g">OGC</a>, who commented on the update post, and I figured, ever certain number of posts in the Top 30 prospect list I would highlight a certain player who merits some discussion. These posts won't be as long as the Top 30 profiles, but they are pieces to highlight certain players who should still be focused on by Giants fans in 2012.<br /><br /><br /><b>Why is Angel Villalona Highlighted?</b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi%3Fid%3Dvillal001ang&sa=U&ei=GqJTT9fZBc-nsALOp4TwBQ&ved=0CDQQFjAJ&usg=AFQjCNGIodSBoR_YfFMZBPvo78GeLI-uAQ">Villalona</a> is probably one of the most interesting stories in the Giants minor league system. In Augusta of 2006, the Giants awarded the 16 year old Villalona with a $2.1 million signing bonus, the highest in team history for an international signing at the time (it would later be surpassed by Rafael Rodriguez). Villalona at the time was considered a man among boys: he had tremendous power, and many experts felt that Villalona could develop into an All-Star calibur player who would regularly hit 30-plus home runs at the Major League level. However, toward the end of the 2009 season, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp%3Fymd%3D20090920%26content_id%3D7063844%26vkey%3Dnews_mlb%26fext%3D.jsp%26c_id%3Dmlb&sa=U&ei=Q6JTT7ybD4vMsQLe26HwBQ&ved=0CCYQFjAI&usg=AFQjCNENlcHe1eKBwg8cbrSpI3h5RFD-Dw">Villalona was charged with murder in his home country</a>, the Dominican Republic. Though charges against him were eventually dropped, his visa was revoked, and Villalona spent two years away from organized baseball. Despite the uncertainty of his future, the Giants still placed Villalona on the 40-man roster at the end of this year (most likely to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft).<br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>What Makes Villalona Interesting?</b><br /><br />Villalona has plus power and that was evident in his stints in the lower minors early in his career. He hit 17 home runs in 2008 in Augusta and posted a slugging percentage of .435 as well. While the numbers aren't eye-popping, he did this as a 17 year old, so the fact that he was able to hit with as much power as he did as a teenager against competition 2-4 years older than him is impressive. While his power did decrease in the hitter-friendly California League (his home runs dropped to 9 and slugging dipped under .400 to .397 in 310 plate appearances), he was still considerably young for the league (only 18 in a league which average 22-23 years of age), and did deal with some minor injuries that limited him to almost 200 less plate appearances from the previous season.<br /><br />Furthermore, the reports from some of the coaches in the organization about Villalona initially were very positive, which gave some hope that despite the average numbers, he was progressing on the right track to stardom. The reports detailed him as a hardworking guy who was showing signs (though inconsistent) of improvement, especially over the course of seasons (e.g. he improved at the plate with more and more at-bats). Here's what Augusta manager Andy Skeels said about Villalona after the 2008 season:<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"You come out of Spring Training and they're so young and never experienced a full season, so you don't know what you're going to get. For someone that young, it's a testament to what our staff did and a testament to the kind of kid Angel is. He's a tremendous talent and he dedicated himself much better to becoming a professional."</i> </blockquote><br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>What keeps Villalona out of the Top 30?</b><br /><br />On potential alone, Villalona could be a Top 30 prospect. He <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=505830">was a Top 50 prospect in baseball</a> as recently as 2009. His power tool is that good. Unfortunately, the question of whether or not he is going to play this year stateside only compounds to an already big laundry list of factors working against him as a prospect. Originally billed as a highly athletic, "five tool" potential player out of the DR at the time of his signing, Villalona proved as soon as his first year in professional ball that he was probably a three tool player at best. He didn't have as much speed as expected, and defensively he proved to be nothing special at any level (in two of his three seasons RTZ, or Total Zone Fielding Runs, rated his defense as below average).<br /><br />In addition to a lack of speed and questionable defense, Villalona had major conditioning issues, as his weight ballooned to the point where the Giants brass moved Villalona from third to first after his first full year in Rookie ball and the Northwest League. While a move from third to first base was also probably the best due to his defensive ability, it certainly hurt his status as a prospect, since his power is a premium for a third base prospect, but probably only above-average for a first base one.<br /><br />While Villalona's hit tool and power tool have plus potential, his plate approach isn't (and that's putting it nicely). As a matter of fact, the biggest knock against Villalona as a prospect was his total lack of discipline and propensity for swinging at pitches badly out of the strike zone. In his three minor league seasons, his average OBP is .316 and his career BB/K ratio sits at 0.18 (which makes Francisco Peguero look like Kevin Youkilis by comparison). The main issue was his two-strike approach, as he seemingly swung at any and everything out of the strike zone. Add this with a lack of walks (only 42 career walks in 1047 plate appearances), and safe to say there were a lot of strikes against Villalona even before the murder incident occurred.<br /><br /><br /><b>Can Villalona Improve?</b><br /><br />I would like to say "Yes," though I do so with some reservations. I am an optimistic guy and I feel like Villalona should have a new spin on his career after such a life-altering incident. I know Osvaldo Martinez in the White Sox (previously Marlins) had a bit of a career turn-around after he was involved in a shooting in his native Puerto Rico (he was the victim though). I'm hoping Villalona can do the same and really take the bull by the horns after almost losing everything.<br /><br />That being said, the odds are against Villalona. He's had two years away from the states, and his youth, one of the biggest factors working for him as a prospect, is essentially gone. With two lost minor league seasons, he now has to spend a year (maybe even two) to just get reacquainted with the game again. Also, how in shape Villalona is will be a big issue, since it was a problem when he was here stateside. After two years away from the game, it isn't likely that he's in pristine condition (though I do hope he's in at least decent shape, and despite the visa denial saying otherwise, I think he had kept okay care of himself, from reports I have read).<br /><br />The Giants will need to be patient with Villalona as he works toward being a viable prospect in their system once again. He still is only 21 years old, so there is some time in his favor (though obviously not as much as before). Nonetheless, Villalona is a high risk, high reward kind of player, whose future is extremely murky at this point. So while he may have the potential to recapture the lofty status he once held, it is also highly possible that the Giants made a big mistake putting him on the 40-man roster (I don't think it was, considering how many players have turned into studs from the Rule 5 draft, but we'll see).<br /><br />Whatever the future may hold for Villalona, it is unlikely that Giants fans will get a good idea of what his future projection will be after this year. Most likely, we won't know Villalona's true future projection for at least a couple of more seasons.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-71238533409524977732012-02-29T13:28:00.000-08:002018-07-30T08:17:56.321-07:00Final Changes to the OTF Top 30 ListI know prospect lists should be final, but I had to make a final tweak to the rankings. <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&ved=0CGcQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fespn.go.com%2Fmlb%2Fspring2012%2Fstory%2F_%2Fid%2F7599607%2Fsan-francisco-giants-prospect-angel-villalona-delayed-visa-problem&ei=mZdOT56aMYSLsQKA9O0n&usg=AFQjCNFKK7VK073Hy9eyV_iIm-HOLqnzjg">With Angel Villalona's visa being delayed</a>, the possibility of him not playing another year is very real (though I do think he'll get here at some point). The main reason for the delay allegedly is that he is applying for a visa meant for athletes and apparently his physical shape didn't check out with those dispersing visas for such athletes. That report scares me and makes me less optimistic that he'll recapture the potential he had when he was playing in the minors as recently as 2009.<br /><br />So, I added two others at the No. 30 spot, since I felt they were both deserving. I added pitcher Chris Marlowe and outfielder Roger Kieschnick. Marlowe is a relief pitcher out of Oklahoma State whose frame and strikeout ability has gotten Tim Lincecum-comparisons, while Kieschnick is a bit of a tumbler but did post solid power numbers in the Eastern League a year ago.<br /><br />This should be the last change and I apologize for all the flip-flopping. I just want to get these rankings as accurate as possible and the later rankings are always the toughest.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723610406379824887.post-74307181572412905122012-02-29T13:06:00.000-08:002018-07-30T08:17:56.468-07:00OTF Top 30: No. 9, Eric Surkamp, LHPNo. 9: <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=474668"><b>Eric Surkamp, left-handed pitcher.</b></a><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/34rjNvsk30U" width="480"></iframe><br /><br /><b>Age</b>: 24<br /><b>Drafted</b>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2008&draft_round=6&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round">Sixth round (177th overall) in the 2008 MLB Draft</a><br /><b>College</b>: North Carolina State<br /><b>2011 Regular season numbers</b>: 10-4 W-L, 23 games, 142.1 innings pitched, 37 runs allowed, 110 hits allowed, 44 walks, 165 strikeouts, 2.02 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.37 FIP, 3.75 BB/K ratio (Double-A). 2-2 W-L, 6 games, 26.2 IP, 32 hits allowed, 18 runs allowed, 17 walks, 13 strikeouts, 5.74 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 4.68 FIP, 0.76 BB/K ratio (MLB).<br /><b>2011 Fall/Winter League numbers</b>: None<br /><br /><br /><b>Why you should know about Surkamp in 2012:</b><br /><br />Surkamp is one of the more enigmatic pitching prospects in the Giants system. Scouts don't think he has the velocity to be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation or spot starter at the next level. On the other hand, stat guys point out that his dominance and command rates illustrate that he has the potential to be a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter in the Big Leagues. Surkamp's future probably lies somewhere in the middle (hopefully), but his <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/surkaer01.shtml">brief Major League stint in 2011</a> didn't do anything to sway critical scouts in the other direction. Surkamp won't spend much time in the minors in 2012 (he most likely is starting in Fresno barring injury AND an incredible Spring), but he'll be an interesting arm to keep an eye out on, especially if Barry Zito or Ryan Vogelsong struggle in the rotation.<br /><br /><br /><b>What are Surkamp's strengths as a prospect?</b><br /><br />After being drafted in the sixth round out of NC State, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=surkam001eri">Surkamp</a> appeared to profile as a low-ceiling pitcher who could advance quickly in the minors. Not only has Surkamp advanced in the Giants system (even though he did start out his career in the Sally his first full season), but he has pretty much dominated at every level in the Minors.<br /><br />Surkamp sports plus control and command, and has demonstrated that with excellent walk to strikeout ratios in the Minors, and his tenure in Richmond last season was probably his most impressive stint yet. In 142.1 innings pitched, he struck out 165 while only allowing 44 free passes, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2540&position=P">good for a BB/K ratio of 3.75 and a FIP of 2.37</a>. Even though the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers, Surkamp's numbers in Richmond were no fluke, as he was dominant in Augusta in 2009 and San Jose in 2010 as well, posting BB/K ratios of 4.33 and 4.19, respectively. His San Jose numbers are especially impressive since the Cal League tends to favor hitters, and despite those circumstances working against him in 2010, he still managed to post a FIP of 2.54.<br /><br />While he doesn't sport tremendous velocity on his fastball (it is graded a three-plus by Rob Gordon of the MiLBA and it sits in the 87-90 MPH range), his deceptive three-quarters pitching motion, excellent control and plus curve ball have contributed heavily to his dominance in the minors. Daniel Jarrett of MLB Prospect Portal gave Surkamp positive reviews <a href="http://www.mlbprospectportal.com/2011/05/scouting-report-eric-surkamp-lhp-san.html">in a game report of a Surkamp start against the Akron Aeros on May 29th</a>, noting this about Surkamp in his report: <br /><br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"Surkamp's fastball was topping out around 90 MPH, but he showed great command of his offspeed pitches, mixing them in to keep the Aeros lineup off balance all game. His changeup and curveball both rate as plus pitches but his fastball will be big league average at best, even if he's able to add an MPH or two as he continues to get stronger...<br /><br />It's not often you see a pitcher with a league average fastball who is able to record as many strikeouts as Surkamp, but its a credit to the quality of his secondary pitches and his poise on the mound. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain those rates throughout his career but his definitely has the pitchability to be a successful big league pitcher. His upside is likely as a #2 or #3 starter, who can log plenty of quality innings while giving his team a chance to win each and every night."</i></blockquote><br />Surkamp doesn't have the stuff or ceiling of a pitcher like Kyle Crick or previous pitching prospects in the Giants system such as Zack Wheeler (currently in the Mets organization) or Madison Bumgarner. However, he is a prospect who knows how to pitch and has displayed excellent poise and presence on the mound at every stop in the Minors. It's those intangibles that make Surkamp such an interesting prospect, and help make up what he lacks in terms of tools and velocity.<br /><br /><b><br /></b><br /><b>Where might Surkamp struggle?</b><br /><br />Surkamp was called up to the Majors late last season and did not impress in his six-start "cup of coffee" with the Big League club. Not only was he extremely hittable (he allowed 10.8 hits per nine innings), but he displayed none of the dominance, control or command that made him such a great prospect in the minors. His BB/K ratio was putrid at 0.76, amplified by a walk rate of 5.7 (he never posted a walk rate higher than 3.2 in the minors, and that was in his first season of professional ball at Salem Keizer).<br /><br />It made sense why Surkamp didn't dominate in the Majors like he did in the Minors in 2011. His stuff really isn't all that impressive. Despite sporting good size at six-feet, four inches and a 190 pounds, Surkamp tops out at 90 MPH on his fastball and is consistently in the 87-89 range. While that is passable for a Major League starter, it leaves little room for error and it certainly isn't the velocity one would expect from a major pitching prospect. Furthermore, Surkamp is a three pitch pitcher, and while his curve has gotten good reports, his changeup has gotten mixed results (most likely due to the fact that his fastball doesn't generate a lot of speed). While asking Surkamp to develop a fourth pitch at this stage of his professional career is a huge stretch, Surkamp most likely has to develop his current pitch repertoire even more to be successful. How he will induce groundballs at the Major League level will probably be the key to his success. since I doubt his 10.6 career K/9 will translate. According to Baseball America in their handbook, his two seam fastball does tail, sink and induce groundballs, but that was hardly evident at the big league level, as he only posted a GB/FB rate of 0.91 (though the 26.1 line drive rate probably had something to do with it being so low). <br /><br />Hence, the big question about Surkamp is this: can his repertoire and approach transition to the Major League level? Or is Surkamp simply one of those pitchers that can succeed against marginal talent, but not against elite hitters with better approaches? The tenure in San Francisco suggests the latter, but it was only a short six-game sample, and Surkamp had logged 142.1 innings in Richmond and six innings in San Jose in addition to his stint with the Giants. Surkamp may have just been a bit worn out, and wasn't ready or in the proper shape to face Major League hitters. Of course, that's just theory, and Giants fans won't really know how Surkamp will fare in the long run at the Major League level until he logs a larger sample.<br /><br /><br /><b>Grades on Surkamp's Tools:</b><br /><br /><u>Fastball:</u> <b>15/20</b> (It certainly isn't impressive in terms of velocity, but his two seamer does offer some hope that he can induce groundballs at the next level. His size does suggest that he has the potential to increase the velocity on his fastball, but even then, it'll probably be an increase of 1-2 MPH at best. Whether the velocity increases or not, he'll need to rely on more than just his fastball at the next level in order to be successful.)<br /><u>Curveball:</u> <b>17/20</b> (His curve, according to Baseball America, is knowing for finishing off pitchers, and it has good sweeping action at 75-78 MPH according to Gordon. While we're not look at a Barry Zito-esque curve here, it is a plus secondary pitch that Surkamp will probably hinge on in order to be successful as a starting pitcher. He locates it well, so he has that going in his favor.)<br /><u>Changeup</u>: <b>16/20</b> (The report vary, but his changeup did show signs of effectiveness at times in 2011. While his lack of fastball velocity doesn't maximize the value of his changeup, Baseball America did report that it works well against right handed hitters. Considering how Tim Lincecum's success in 2010 hinged on his changeup despite a decrease in fastball velocity from the previous year, this could be the pitch in Surkamp's repertoire that makes or breaks Surkamp's projection as a Major League pitcher.)<br /><u>Mechanics</u>: <b>18/20</b> (His three quarters delivery is deceptive, and his tall frame further makes things difficult for opposing hitters when it comes to seeing his pitches. On tape, Surkamp has a steady delivery that moves smoothly and doesn't exert too much effort. His easy delivery probably prohibits him from getting more behind his fastball, but I will take the added control and command of his delivery over one that inhibits more speed, but more wildness in his pitches.)<br /><u>Command/Control</u>: <b>19/20</b> (A huge plus tool of his. Surkamp is fearless and isn't afraid to attack hitters inside despite sporting an average fastball. While this wasn't the case in San Francisco (he was too nitpicky in his callup), his track record shows that he has the potential to bounce back in 2012 and display the command that made him such a fast riser in the Giants system. While I think the K/9 rates won't translate at the Major League level, I do think his control will, which will equalize the regression in strikeouts in the Big Leagues.)<br /><u>Ceiling:</u> <b>16/20</b> (He probably projects as a back-end starter, maybe a 3rd starter at best. Furthermore, at his age, he really doesn't have much more room for development, so it's kind of now or never right now for Surkamp. Still though, if he can recapture the control he showed in the Minors at the Big League level, he could be a valuable fourth or fifth starter for the Giants as soon as this season.)<br /><u>Health/Makeup/Intangibles</u>: <b>16/20</b> (He suffered a torn labrum in his hip in 2010 which ended his San Jose campaign early, but he rebounded from surgery in 2011 and posted solid numbers. While he doesn't have a massive injury history, the hip injury in 2010 will be something to watch out for in the near future. Surkamp also was a sixth round pick, so that goes against him in terms of projection (usually less-heralded guys are less-heralded for a reason). That being said, Surkamp has a good work ethic and has adjusted well at every stop he has been at, so that definitely bodes well in his favor.)<br /><br /><br /><b>Overall grade</b>: B-<br /><b>Projection</b>: No. 4 or No. 5 Major League starting pitcher; could be spot starter or long innings reliever.<br /><br /><b>Summary</b>: Surkamp has garnered quite the<a href="http://24daysofmagic.com/site/content/surkamp-fan-club.html"> fan base amongst Giants fans</a> which can be a good thing (Pablo Sandoval) or misleading (John Bowker). I love Surkamp's repertoire and approach as a pitcher, which I think makes up for his average tools as a pitcher. While I think the stint in San Francisco isn't a total indicator of Surkamp's potential in the Major Leagues, I think it was a warning sign for a lot of Giants fans who felt Surkamp was in line to achieve automatic success at the Big League level like Madison Bumgarner. He just doesn't have the tools like Bumgarner to be that dominant. However, if he can recapture his control and confidence, then it is likely to see Surkamp achieve some success on the Giants staff. He won't have have much room for error, but it certainly isn't out of the question.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0