It's a great day for Giants fans today. Sure, Bengie Molina going to Texas for Chris Ray finally opens up the catching job for Buster Posey, something Giants fans have been clamoring for since Spring Training. Yes, the Giants get another arm in the bullpen, something that can't be taken for granted.
However, I think this trade means something more than just those two things above.
Today, the Giants youth movement should begin for the remainder of the season.
Of course, I say "should" because this is a team managed by Bruce Bochy and a team run by Brian Sabean. Bochy's affinity for veterans has been well-reported since his Padres days and Sabean is always itching to pull the trigger on deals at the Trade Deadline.
However, this latest series against the Dodgers showed that the Giants, unfortunately, are pretenders more than contenders in the National League West. At 40-37, the Giants have lost five straight and sit 5.5 games back in the NL West behind the division-leading Padres. They are 8-17 against the National League West (2-12 against the Dodgers and Padres) and fell from second to fourth after the Dodgers series. Unfortunately for Giants fans, they seem to be heading in the opposite direction momentum-wise in comparison to the Dodgers and Rockies, not a good thing considering how much better those teams are set up offensively.
The Giants may still "be in this thing" but they are hanging on by a thread, and it is only a matter of time before the wheels officially come off on this Giants wagon that has been teetering for so long.
And I think the Molina trade is a sign that the Giants management realizes that...finally.
The Giants really should be in "sell" mode this trade deadline, with all the veterans available for a certain price. Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria and even Freddy Sanchez should all be "trade-able" should a "contender" be calling. The Giants should have continued their rebuilding process last year, and started the whole "trade veterans for prospects" ordeal in 2009. A fluke season prevented that and put the organizational plan back a year. This year, the Giants have no excuse.
This isn't a bad thing for the Giants. There is young talent on this team and in this organization. Posey is one of the top catching prospects in the game. John Bowker is hitting .330 with nine homes runs and a 1.064 OPS since being demoted back to Fresno. Nate Schierholtz is one of the better defensive outfielders in the game (18.2 UZR/150) and has honed is free-swinging approach from a season ago (0.72 BB/K ratio).
And down on the farm? Ryan Rohlinger, Matt Downs and Tyler Graham have also proved to be too good for the Pacific Coast League this year with the Grizzlies, and in Double-A Richmond, Thomas Neal is finally coming back to form after a slow start this season in the Eastern League. He is currently hitting .288 with a team-leading eight home runs and 43 RBI.
The Giants youngsters should be given a chance, and that chance should be now. This organization has nothing to lose. The Giants have already given the chances to the vets, and as of today, they haven't gotten the job done and it doesn't seem as if they will get the job done either in 2010. The young players in this organization can provide upside, and even if many of them struggle for the remainder of the season, they will gain valuable experience for 2011.
Of course, it all comes down to whether the organization will want to do this or not. I have a feeling Bochy won't concede and thus, managing partner Bill Neukom has a decision to make. Does he continue to trust in Bochy and his "blocking the future" ways? Or does he send a message and have Bochy packing his bags like Molina?
It'll be very interesting for the Giants this July. There certainly will be pressure on the Giants to make a deal, and we have already heard the names pop up (David DeJesus, Jose Guillen and even Prince Fielder). However, that shouldn't be the course for the Giants. One guy can't rescue this team and push them into the playoffs. This team has too many holes too fill, and the holes simply can't be filled in the span of one month.
As a Giants fan, all I can say is this to Sabean and the Giants organization: don't waste the money. Go young, save the cash, and if anything, start stockpiling for the future. There's no shame in it. The Rays, Marlins and A's have done it, and the results have been kind to them.
Yes, Posey finally takes his place behind the plate. That is the immediate result of the Molina trade. However, this Molina trade goes beyond Posey. It should trigger more playing time for MORE young players on this Giants roster.
We'll see in a month if that happens.
Showing posts with label Bengie Molina. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bengie Molina. Show all posts
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
Bengie Molina Making It Hard for the Giants to Keep Down Buster Posey
Bengie Molina is a fan favorite of the Giants. I admit that. When you have been as solid behind the backstop as he has been from 2007 through now, you have to like the guy a little bit.
Unfortunately, as likable as Molina is, this is certain: he doesn't offer much anymore as a starting Major League catcher.
This is amplified by the fact that Buster Posey, the Giants' No. 1 prospect according to Baseball America, is tearing up the Pacific Coast League with a .349 batting average and .955 OPS in Fresno.
Now, I know people will point to a few factors in defense of Molina. Here are a few things Molina supporters will bring up about the veteran catcher.
1.) Molina is still a good hitting catcher, and he has become more patient at the plate.
2.) Molina has traditionally been one of the better defensive catchers in the game.
3.) The Giants pitching staff feels comfortable with Molina behind the plate.
Those points are all nice, but they are refutable.
In terms of point number one, yes, Molina isn't a bad hitting catcher when you compare him to Jason Kendall or Eli Whiteside. However, when you look at he number overall, Molina really hasn't been that impressive this year.
For starters, his slugging percentage is way down, which accordingly, has affected his OPS numbers. If you look at his slugging numbers from 2007-2009, Molina posted percentages of .433, .445 and .442. This season? The number sits at a paltry .353, which has also resulted in a .691 OPS (the last time his OPS was under .700 was in 2002 with the Angels when it was .596).
In terms of his OBP numbers (.338 so far this year, which is a 29 point improvement over his .308 career OBP), while they are nice, there are two problems:
1.) They most likely aren't sustainable considering his track record.
2.) Getting on-base doesn't make much of a difference in Molina's value.
Point number one is easy. We're already starting to see a dramatic drop off in May (.292 OBP) from the crazy numbers he posted in April (.402 OBP). Sure, he's swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone (32.8 percent) than in years past (he had O-swing percentages over 40 percent the past two years), but it is still a high number nonetheless. Case in point, his O-swing percentage was 33.7 percent in 2007. What was his OBP? .298.
Now, is he going to dip under .300? Maybe not, but I think Giants fans should be prepared for Molina's OBP totals to be around, if not below the ZiPS rest of the season projection of .310.
Then again, even if Molina beats history and sustains this high OBP, it is a rather dubious honor for him. Why is that? Because even though he may get on-base, his severe lack of speed is an absolute killer in terms of scoring runs. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if pitchers are more aggressive with Molina this year, knowing that even if he gets on base by walk, his slow-as-molasses base running won't hurt them in the runs department. Molina is strictly a station to station baserunner, and even that's putting it nicely.
Lastly in terms of offense, look at the pre-season ZiPS projections on Posey, and Molina's rest of the season ZiPS projections.
Posey: .282 average, .741 OPS, 64.8 wRC, 1.8 wRAA, .333 wOBA.
Molina: .272 average, .724 OPS, 36.7 wRC, minus-1.7 wRAA, .320 wOBA.
As you can see, Posey not only would be a serviceable replacement for Molina offensively, he might actually be an upgrade. Posey, if promoted and given the starting job, would add runs to a team that needs offense. Molina, at this point, only seems to be a detriment to the Giants offense when he is in the lineup.
In terms of point number two, Molina isn't a good defensive catcher anymore. I'm sorry to say it, but it's true. Check out this article from Beyond the Box Score, a sabermetrics blog, that ranks every catcher defensively according to various metrics.
Where does Bengie Molina rank? 74th. The only catchers of note that he is better than are Mike Napoli and Ryan Doumit, and nobody has pined in the past for those guys to win Gold Gloves. To make matters worse, Whiteside is ranked 28th, which only puts more salt in the wound of the "Molina is a serviceable Major League catcher" argument.
If you don't like the advanced defensive metrics of Beyond the Box Score (and believe me, it did take me a while to comprehend the rankings), just look at the steal rate between Molina and Posey. Baserunners have stolen 34 bases out of 39 attempts this season (a 12.8 percent CS rate). Baserunners have only stolen 15 bases out of 27 attempts on Posey this year (a 44 percent CS rate).
Sure, Molina is in the Majors and Posey is in the PCL. However, the difference is so disparaging that Posey couldn't be any worse than Molina in the Majors.
Lastly, I understand the pitching staff may like Molina. However, it's not as if Molina plays every day. Eli Whiteside has played in 21 games this year, and is usually the regular catcher for Jonathan Sanchez and sometimes Barry Zito. So, it's not as if EVERY member of the pitching staff needs Molina. Furthermore, with Molina's declining athleticism, how dependable do you think a pitcher like Tim Lincecum thinks Molina is when his control is off? I guarantee you the confidence Lincecum has in Molina now, isn't quite at the same level it was when Timmy started pitching full-time in 2008.
I understand the financial commitment that will be required if the Giants bring up Posey. I understand the financial loss the Giants would incur should they designate Molina for assignment. I'm not completely blind to the situation the Giants management have at hand.
However, Posey is a very special catcher, much like Matt Wieters and Joe Mauer before him. With those guys, when they were ready, the Orioles and Twins, respectively brought them up and took a chance on them, regardless of their status and who was holding the job before them. Sure, the Giants could move up Posey and have him split time at first and catcher, but Molina doesn't want to share the job, and Posey is a franchise-caliber player. He deserves to be playing in his future position, not messing around at other positions. This is the Major Leagues, not a high school summer league.
Who knows what Brian Sabean will do when he brings up Posey. This is certain though: Posey is an upgrade over Molina at this point, and if you don't believe me, just look at the numbers. Posey beats the pants off of Molina in every category.
Unfortunately, as likable as Molina is, this is certain: he doesn't offer much anymore as a starting Major League catcher.
This is amplified by the fact that Buster Posey, the Giants' No. 1 prospect according to Baseball America, is tearing up the Pacific Coast League with a .349 batting average and .955 OPS in Fresno.
Now, I know people will point to a few factors in defense of Molina. Here are a few things Molina supporters will bring up about the veteran catcher.
1.) Molina is still a good hitting catcher, and he has become more patient at the plate.
2.) Molina has traditionally been one of the better defensive catchers in the game.
3.) The Giants pitching staff feels comfortable with Molina behind the plate.
Those points are all nice, but they are refutable.
In terms of point number one, yes, Molina isn't a bad hitting catcher when you compare him to Jason Kendall or Eli Whiteside. However, when you look at he number overall, Molina really hasn't been that impressive this year.
For starters, his slugging percentage is way down, which accordingly, has affected his OPS numbers. If you look at his slugging numbers from 2007-2009, Molina posted percentages of .433, .445 and .442. This season? The number sits at a paltry .353, which has also resulted in a .691 OPS (the last time his OPS was under .700 was in 2002 with the Angels when it was .596).
In terms of his OBP numbers (.338 so far this year, which is a 29 point improvement over his .308 career OBP), while they are nice, there are two problems:
1.) They most likely aren't sustainable considering his track record.
2.) Getting on-base doesn't make much of a difference in Molina's value.
Point number one is easy. We're already starting to see a dramatic drop off in May (.292 OBP) from the crazy numbers he posted in April (.402 OBP). Sure, he's swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone (32.8 percent) than in years past (he had O-swing percentages over 40 percent the past two years), but it is still a high number nonetheless. Case in point, his O-swing percentage was 33.7 percent in 2007. What was his OBP? .298.
Now, is he going to dip under .300? Maybe not, but I think Giants fans should be prepared for Molina's OBP totals to be around, if not below the ZiPS rest of the season projection of .310.
Then again, even if Molina beats history and sustains this high OBP, it is a rather dubious honor for him. Why is that? Because even though he may get on-base, his severe lack of speed is an absolute killer in terms of scoring runs. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if pitchers are more aggressive with Molina this year, knowing that even if he gets on base by walk, his slow-as-molasses base running won't hurt them in the runs department. Molina is strictly a station to station baserunner, and even that's putting it nicely.
Lastly in terms of offense, look at the pre-season ZiPS projections on Posey, and Molina's rest of the season ZiPS projections.
Posey: .282 average, .741 OPS, 64.8 wRC, 1.8 wRAA, .333 wOBA.
Molina: .272 average, .724 OPS, 36.7 wRC, minus-1.7 wRAA, .320 wOBA.
As you can see, Posey not only would be a serviceable replacement for Molina offensively, he might actually be an upgrade. Posey, if promoted and given the starting job, would add runs to a team that needs offense. Molina, at this point, only seems to be a detriment to the Giants offense when he is in the lineup.
In terms of point number two, Molina isn't a good defensive catcher anymore. I'm sorry to say it, but it's true. Check out this article from Beyond the Box Score, a sabermetrics blog, that ranks every catcher defensively according to various metrics.
Where does Bengie Molina rank? 74th. The only catchers of note that he is better than are Mike Napoli and Ryan Doumit, and nobody has pined in the past for those guys to win Gold Gloves. To make matters worse, Whiteside is ranked 28th, which only puts more salt in the wound of the "Molina is a serviceable Major League catcher" argument.
If you don't like the advanced defensive metrics of Beyond the Box Score (and believe me, it did take me a while to comprehend the rankings), just look at the steal rate between Molina and Posey. Baserunners have stolen 34 bases out of 39 attempts this season (a 12.8 percent CS rate). Baserunners have only stolen 15 bases out of 27 attempts on Posey this year (a 44 percent CS rate).
Sure, Molina is in the Majors and Posey is in the PCL. However, the difference is so disparaging that Posey couldn't be any worse than Molina in the Majors.
Lastly, I understand the pitching staff may like Molina. However, it's not as if Molina plays every day. Eli Whiteside has played in 21 games this year, and is usually the regular catcher for Jonathan Sanchez and sometimes Barry Zito. So, it's not as if EVERY member of the pitching staff needs Molina. Furthermore, with Molina's declining athleticism, how dependable do you think a pitcher like Tim Lincecum thinks Molina is when his control is off? I guarantee you the confidence Lincecum has in Molina now, isn't quite at the same level it was when Timmy started pitching full-time in 2008.
I understand the financial commitment that will be required if the Giants bring up Posey. I understand the financial loss the Giants would incur should they designate Molina for assignment. I'm not completely blind to the situation the Giants management have at hand.
However, Posey is a very special catcher, much like Matt Wieters and Joe Mauer before him. With those guys, when they were ready, the Orioles and Twins, respectively brought them up and took a chance on them, regardless of their status and who was holding the job before them. Sure, the Giants could move up Posey and have him split time at first and catcher, but Molina doesn't want to share the job, and Posey is a franchise-caliber player. He deserves to be playing in his future position, not messing around at other positions. This is the Major Leagues, not a high school summer league.
Who knows what Brian Sabean will do when he brings up Posey. This is certain though: Posey is an upgrade over Molina at this point, and if you don't believe me, just look at the numbers. Posey beats the pants off of Molina in every category.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
"May"-Hem: One Frustrating Week for Giants Baseball Fans
The Giants still have a chance to come out with a win from the Padres in this series. I'm trying to stay that optimistic. Jonathan Sanchez is on the hill, and for some reason, I have that feeling that Sanchez will deal and help the Giants avoid an 0-6 start to the season against the Friars. After all, he's pitched somewhat well in the past against the Padres.
However, this isn't about the series against the Padres solely. It goes beyond that. The Giants so far this week have been frustrating the living daylights out of us fans. Here are some reasons why:
The Giants' Ineptitude Against the Padres This Series
Check out the game graphs from yesterday and today's losses on Fangraphs.
I'm sorry. That sucks. It sucks because when you look at the graphs, you realize we just have gone downhill and haven't clawed back in the slightest this series against a team that we are better on paper against. (At home nonetheless!) It sucks to see the Padres doing the damage this series, and it's guys like Jerry Hairston Jr. and Yorvit "I can't hit against anybody but the Giants" Torrealba.
Ugh...I'm getting sick to my stomach. Looking at these graphs makes me feel like the Duke brothers at the end of "Trading Places."
Brian Sabean Saying "Triple-A" Doesn't Matter
I hate Sabean. I hated him before and I hate him even more after he made some asinine comments in an article by San Jose Mercury Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly in regard to the prospect of bringing up Buster Posey. Here's a "gem of wisdom" from the longest tenured general manager in Major League Baseball.
Lunacy. Sabean makes absolute no sense and ends up sounding not only like an idiot, but a blowhard idiot to boot. (And I'm not the only one saying it's dumb either.)
Look...we get it Sabes. You don't want bring up Posey and mess up the arbitration process like you did with Tim Lincecum. We know you can't say that to the media. However, you have reasonable excuses. Say you're "Behind Bengie and Eli (or "Whitey" as Bruce Bochy likes to call him) for the time being." Say "Posey could use half a season working with Madison Bumgarner."
But to say "Triple-A baseball isn't very good?" Come on. You know you aren't going to win that argument, and you just make the Giants organization and Giants fans look foolish.
I wish I could write pieces like this about Sabean, but it's times like this that prove time and time again why Sabean is such an overrated (and over-employed) general manager.
Bengie Molina: "Mr. Outspoken."
I really like Bengie. I do. He's the best catcher we've had in a Giants uniform since Bob Brenly and he is a great clubhouse guy that has worked well with our pitching staff. Furthermore, it is very hard to find a decent hitting catcher these days, let alone a good one like Molina, so you have to feel, as a Giants fan, we've been pretty lucky these past three-plus years.
Yet, Molina seems to be wearing out his welcome with the Giants. First off, he hasn't made things easy with the Posey situation (apparently, he's "frustrated" with how it's being handled). Secondly, on his personal blog, Behind the Mask, he went on a bit of a tirade against ESPN, which poked fun at his speed (or lack thereof) on Sportscenter. Here's a little tidbit from his post today:
I'm sorry Bengie, but I just got to disagree with you on these two things. First off, I know you're ticked that you didn't get offered more money this off-season. I know you got screwed over by the Mets, and you deserve to be angry. But nobody forced you to sign this off-season with the Giants. Heck, even Giants management implored you to not sign with the Giants. You knew Posey was the catcher of the future and still, you signed anyway. You don't have any excuse or leeway to complain about this.
In terms of point two, it's ESPN. Everybody gets made fun of there. What else did you expect? Have you watched Sportscenter the past ten years? That's just the nature of how the show is. Furthermore, if you don't want anymore criticism (I saw the telecast, it's really not that bad) then don't attract any attention to yourself. Nobody would have remembered the slow-mo of you running home beyond today, but because you brought it up, it'll be talked for at least a few more. Let sleeping dogs lie Bengie. ESPN poking fun at you for something you know to be pretty obvious is nothing to cry "murder" over. It could have been worse.
Mark Derosa's Wrist Problems
Another reason for my dislike of Sabean. He commits $24 million this off-season to Mark Derosa and Freddy Sanchez. What happens? Sanchez begins the year on the Disabled List because of off-season knee surgery, and now, Derosa claims that his wrist surgery this off-season was a "total failure" in an article in the San Jose Mercury.
That's awesome. Not only did Sabean sign one guy with injury problems (simply because he needed to save face after trading away Tim Alderson), it appears that he signed two this off-season (three if you count Edgar Renteria the previous season). What makes this even better? Remember '51's boy Fred Lewis is doing serious damage in Toronto. Here's what he's doing with the Blue Jays:
1.) Batting leadoff (something Giants fans said "He couldn't do.")
2.) Hitting .296 with a .813 OPS, 10 doubles, 13 RBI, 14 R and 3 SB.
3.) Being clutch (wonder how the guys at Bleacher Report feel about this article now) and winning Blue Jays fans over (Bluebird Banter said that it would be a travesty if Lewis is taken out of the lineup in favor of a Edwin Encarnacion at third, Jose Bautista in the outfield, lineup when Encarnacion returns).
But I guess we just had to sign Derosa, right?
However, this isn't about the series against the Padres solely. It goes beyond that. The Giants so far this week have been frustrating the living daylights out of us fans. Here are some reasons why:
The Giants' Ineptitude Against the Padres This Series
Check out the game graphs from yesterday and today's losses on Fangraphs.
I'm sorry. That sucks. It sucks because when you look at the graphs, you realize we just have gone downhill and haven't clawed back in the slightest this series against a team that we are better on paper against. (At home nonetheless!) It sucks to see the Padres doing the damage this series, and it's guys like Jerry Hairston Jr. and Yorvit "I can't hit against anybody but the Giants" Torrealba.
Ugh...I'm getting sick to my stomach. Looking at these graphs makes me feel like the Duke brothers at the end of "Trading Places."
Brian Sabean Saying "Triple-A" Doesn't Matter
I hate Sabean. I hated him before and I hate him even more after he made some asinine comments in an article by San Jose Mercury Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly in regard to the prospect of bringing up Buster Posey. Here's a "gem of wisdom" from the longest tenured general manager in Major League Baseball.
"Triple-A baseball isn't very good," Sabean said. "I'm going to tell you that right now. Especially from a pitching standpoint. Anybody who can pitch is in the big leagues."
Lunacy. Sabean makes absolute no sense and ends up sounding not only like an idiot, but a blowhard idiot to boot. (And I'm not the only one saying it's dumb either.)
Look...we get it Sabes. You don't want bring up Posey and mess up the arbitration process like you did with Tim Lincecum. We know you can't say that to the media. However, you have reasonable excuses. Say you're "Behind Bengie and Eli (or "Whitey" as Bruce Bochy likes to call him) for the time being." Say "Posey could use half a season working with Madison Bumgarner."
But to say "Triple-A baseball isn't very good?" Come on. You know you aren't going to win that argument, and you just make the Giants organization and Giants fans look foolish.
I wish I could write pieces like this about Sabean, but it's times like this that prove time and time again why Sabean is such an overrated (and over-employed) general manager.
Bengie Molina: "Mr. Outspoken."
I really like Bengie. I do. He's the best catcher we've had in a Giants uniform since Bob Brenly and he is a great clubhouse guy that has worked well with our pitching staff. Furthermore, it is very hard to find a decent hitting catcher these days, let alone a good one like Molina, so you have to feel, as a Giants fan, we've been pretty lucky these past three-plus years.
Yet, Molina seems to be wearing out his welcome with the Giants. First off, he hasn't made things easy with the Posey situation (apparently, he's "frustrated" with how it's being handled). Secondly, on his personal blog, Behind the Mask, he went on a bit of a tirade against ESPN, which poked fun at his speed (or lack thereof) on Sportscenter. Here's a little tidbit from his post today:
"Look, you can say I'm the slowest guy in baseball or in all of sports or in the entire world. I don't take issue with that because I AM the slowest guy. I have always been the slowest guy. I can't challenge that criticism. But ESPN's intention was not to criticize but to humiliate."
I'm sorry Bengie, but I just got to disagree with you on these two things. First off, I know you're ticked that you didn't get offered more money this off-season. I know you got screwed over by the Mets, and you deserve to be angry. But nobody forced you to sign this off-season with the Giants. Heck, even Giants management implored you to not sign with the Giants. You knew Posey was the catcher of the future and still, you signed anyway. You don't have any excuse or leeway to complain about this.
In terms of point two, it's ESPN. Everybody gets made fun of there. What else did you expect? Have you watched Sportscenter the past ten years? That's just the nature of how the show is. Furthermore, if you don't want anymore criticism (I saw the telecast, it's really not that bad) then don't attract any attention to yourself. Nobody would have remembered the slow-mo of you running home beyond today, but because you brought it up, it'll be talked for at least a few more. Let sleeping dogs lie Bengie. ESPN poking fun at you for something you know to be pretty obvious is nothing to cry "murder" over. It could have been worse.
Mark Derosa's Wrist Problems
Another reason for my dislike of Sabean. He commits $24 million this off-season to Mark Derosa and Freddy Sanchez. What happens? Sanchez begins the year on the Disabled List because of off-season knee surgery, and now, Derosa claims that his wrist surgery this off-season was a "total failure" in an article in the San Jose Mercury.
DeRosa said he "didn't feel great" when he started to hit before Giants camp opened, "but I just figured that was part of coming back from wrist surgery. And in spring training, you can kind of dance around it. You can feel good and get a couple of windblown doubles in the gap, and everybody thinks you're ready to go."
That's awesome. Not only did Sabean sign one guy with injury problems (simply because he needed to save face after trading away Tim Alderson), it appears that he signed two this off-season (three if you count Edgar Renteria the previous season). What makes this even better? Remember '51's boy Fred Lewis is doing serious damage in Toronto. Here's what he's doing with the Blue Jays:
1.) Batting leadoff (something Giants fans said "He couldn't do.")
2.) Hitting .296 with a .813 OPS, 10 doubles, 13 RBI, 14 R and 3 SB.
3.) Being clutch (wonder how the guys at Bleacher Report feel about this article now) and winning Blue Jays fans over (Bluebird Banter said that it would be a travesty if Lewis is taken out of the lineup in favor of a Edwin Encarnacion at third, Jose Bautista in the outfield, lineup when Encarnacion returns).
But I guess we just had to sign Derosa, right?
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Molina, Whiteside or Posey: What Course Do the Giants Take?
It was supposed to be the Buster Posey era in San Francisco in 2010. The highly-touted draft pick from Florida State that signed the largest draft bonus in club history was supposed to be taking his position behind the plate on Opening Day this year, working with arguably one of the best pitching staffs in the Major Leagues, and helping the Giants in their quest to make the playoffs for the first time since 2003.
Well, the pitching staff is still doing well (at least the starting pitching anyways), and the Giants are still in the hunt in the NL West (they enter a three game series against the first-place San Diego Padres today), but Posey is in Fresno, playing in ballparks all across the Pacific Coast League rather than the National League.
What happened?
You could contribute a lot of things really. Bengie Molina overestimating his value on the market (he turned down a two-year deal from the Mets because he wanted more money, only the Mets pulled the deal on him at the last minute and decided to go with Rod Barajas instead). Bruce Bochy's undying love for "veterans." Brian Sabean second-guessing himself.
Whatever the specific (or combination of) reason(s), the fact remains this: Molina and Eli Whiteside are in the Majors, and Posey is not and it's a shame.
Why is it a shame? Look at Posey's stats. He's proven so far in 2010 that he's too good for the PCL. In 30 games, Posey is hitting .345 with five home runs, 21 RBI and has an OPS of .994. Furthermore, it's not just his offense that has been impressive either. Posey has a caught stealing rate of 50 percent so far this year, and the Fresno Grizzlies pitching staff and team has flourished. The Grizzlies have the seventh-best team ERA in the PCL, and the Grizzlies are currently 20-11, the best record in the PCL.
Posey is ready for the Major Leagues. All he needs is the opportunity.
And that is the problem. There isn't one for him right now.
First off, Molina is doing well. He is hitting .333, has an OPS of .859 and a wOBA of .376. What has been most impressive about Molina has been his improved approach at the plate. After posting BB/K ratios of 0.28, 0.50 (actually pretty good for him) and 0.19 the last three years as a Giant, his BB/K ratio sits at 0.88 currently. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but it's a promising number, especially considering that Molina drawing a walk last year was about as rare as a good Tori Spelling show/movie/project post "90210".
What has been so key in Molina's approach? Swinging less and swinging less outside the strike zone. Last year, Molina swung at 59.5 percent of pitches and 43.9 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. This season? He has only swung 44.7 percent of the time and has only swung at 30.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone this year. The more patient approach has paid off, as he has made better contact at the plate (he has an 88.4 percent contact rate this year in comparison to an 81.4 percent contract rate last year) and has gotten on base more (.402 OBP).
Molina though, despite his solid start, isn't perfect. Bochy has inserted him back in the lineup in cleanup hole, but he may be less suited for that role this season. While he has hit more line drives this year (20.4 percent), his HR/FB ratio is dramatically down at 5.3 percent. The lowest it has been as a Giant was in 2008, when it was 6.8 percent. Granted, Molina could improve that ratio and hit more home runs (since he is still hitting the ball in the air over 50 percent of the time), but at his age, that seems less likely, and thus, he seems less qualified to be the Giants' number four hitter in 2010.
Molina isn't the only blockade for Posey, however. Whiteside surprisingly has gotten off to a good start as well, which gives Sabean and Bochy even more of an excuse to keep Posey in Fresno. Whiteside is hitting .333 with two home runs in 35 plate appearances and has an OPS of 1.061 and a wOBA of .453. Additionally, Whiteside has a great reputation working with the Giants pitching staff, especially Jonathan Sanchez, who has had gotten off to very solid start in 2010.
Unlike Molina though, Whiteside's other numbers are far less impressive, and he seems to be more of a fluke this season than anything. His BB/K ratio in 35 plate appearances is 0.29. While that is an improvement from his BB/K ratio last season (when it was 0.17), it is still far from league average (which is 0.51 this year). Sure, Whiteside should be commended for his plate approach (he has only swung at 18.1 percent of pitches outside the strikezone this season), but he simply doesn't draw enough walks (5.7 percent this year, and ZiPS projects that he'll end up with a walk rate of 4.5 percent) and doesn't make good enough contact at the plate (74.5 percent contact rate) to merit regular playing time.
So, the Giants have three solid catcher who are all performing well. What should they do?
I know it sounds crazy, but the Giants seriously should think about shopping Molina. Already, he seems to be restless in San Francisco after not getting a better deal this off-season, and he seems to be pulling a "Brett Favre" (e.g. threatening retirement) by remarking that he is not keen on splitting time with Posey as well. If he is putting up solid numbers still by June and July, he would be a very valuable asset to a team like Boston or Seattle, a team that seriously needs a catcher. That way, the Giants not only get to promote Posey and give him his deserved shot, but they could get something of value in return. Molina may not generate as much value as in years past, but he is still a solid commodity that could earn one or two lower-tier prospects in return (which would be refreshing to see considering its the Giants always GIVING AWAY prospects during this season).
As for Whiteside? Keep him on as long as he's doing well, and then either a.) have him backup Posey when/if Molina is gone or b.) cut ties with him altogether. Seriously, I know Whiteside is a great story, but like I said before, history shows that he isn't a Major League catcher (and many people are in line with this thought as well).
This is all theory of course, but knowing Sabean and his "thoughts" on Posey and Triple-A, I doubt all this will happen. It's more likely to see a sixth season of "The Wire" than Molina traded away and Whiteside released to make room for Posey.
Giants Baseball: Where Blocking and Jettisoning Promising Players Happens!
Well, the pitching staff is still doing well (at least the starting pitching anyways), and the Giants are still in the hunt in the NL West (they enter a three game series against the first-place San Diego Padres today), but Posey is in Fresno, playing in ballparks all across the Pacific Coast League rather than the National League.
What happened?
You could contribute a lot of things really. Bengie Molina overestimating his value on the market (he turned down a two-year deal from the Mets because he wanted more money, only the Mets pulled the deal on him at the last minute and decided to go with Rod Barajas instead). Bruce Bochy's undying love for "veterans." Brian Sabean second-guessing himself.
Whatever the specific (or combination of) reason(s), the fact remains this: Molina and Eli Whiteside are in the Majors, and Posey is not and it's a shame.
Why is it a shame? Look at Posey's stats. He's proven so far in 2010 that he's too good for the PCL. In 30 games, Posey is hitting .345 with five home runs, 21 RBI and has an OPS of .994. Furthermore, it's not just his offense that has been impressive either. Posey has a caught stealing rate of 50 percent so far this year, and the Fresno Grizzlies pitching staff and team has flourished. The Grizzlies have the seventh-best team ERA in the PCL, and the Grizzlies are currently 20-11, the best record in the PCL.
Posey is ready for the Major Leagues. All he needs is the opportunity.
And that is the problem. There isn't one for him right now.
First off, Molina is doing well. He is hitting .333, has an OPS of .859 and a wOBA of .376. What has been most impressive about Molina has been his improved approach at the plate. After posting BB/K ratios of 0.28, 0.50 (actually pretty good for him) and 0.19 the last three years as a Giant, his BB/K ratio sits at 0.88 currently. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but it's a promising number, especially considering that Molina drawing a walk last year was about as rare as a good Tori Spelling show/movie/project post "90210".
What has been so key in Molina's approach? Swinging less and swinging less outside the strike zone. Last year, Molina swung at 59.5 percent of pitches and 43.9 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. This season? He has only swung 44.7 percent of the time and has only swung at 30.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone this year. The more patient approach has paid off, as he has made better contact at the plate (he has an 88.4 percent contact rate this year in comparison to an 81.4 percent contract rate last year) and has gotten on base more (.402 OBP).
Molina though, despite his solid start, isn't perfect. Bochy has inserted him back in the lineup in cleanup hole, but he may be less suited for that role this season. While he has hit more line drives this year (20.4 percent), his HR/FB ratio is dramatically down at 5.3 percent. The lowest it has been as a Giant was in 2008, when it was 6.8 percent. Granted, Molina could improve that ratio and hit more home runs (since he is still hitting the ball in the air over 50 percent of the time), but at his age, that seems less likely, and thus, he seems less qualified to be the Giants' number four hitter in 2010.
Molina isn't the only blockade for Posey, however. Whiteside surprisingly has gotten off to a good start as well, which gives Sabean and Bochy even more of an excuse to keep Posey in Fresno. Whiteside is hitting .333 with two home runs in 35 plate appearances and has an OPS of 1.061 and a wOBA of .453. Additionally, Whiteside has a great reputation working with the Giants pitching staff, especially Jonathan Sanchez, who has had gotten off to very solid start in 2010.
Unlike Molina though, Whiteside's other numbers are far less impressive, and he seems to be more of a fluke this season than anything. His BB/K ratio in 35 plate appearances is 0.29. While that is an improvement from his BB/K ratio last season (when it was 0.17), it is still far from league average (which is 0.51 this year). Sure, Whiteside should be commended for his plate approach (he has only swung at 18.1 percent of pitches outside the strikezone this season), but he simply doesn't draw enough walks (5.7 percent this year, and ZiPS projects that he'll end up with a walk rate of 4.5 percent) and doesn't make good enough contact at the plate (74.5 percent contact rate) to merit regular playing time.
So, the Giants have three solid catcher who are all performing well. What should they do?
I know it sounds crazy, but the Giants seriously should think about shopping Molina. Already, he seems to be restless in San Francisco after not getting a better deal this off-season, and he seems to be pulling a "Brett Favre" (e.g. threatening retirement) by remarking that he is not keen on splitting time with Posey as well. If he is putting up solid numbers still by June and July, he would be a very valuable asset to a team like Boston or Seattle, a team that seriously needs a catcher. That way, the Giants not only get to promote Posey and give him his deserved shot, but they could get something of value in return. Molina may not generate as much value as in years past, but he is still a solid commodity that could earn one or two lower-tier prospects in return (which would be refreshing to see considering its the Giants always GIVING AWAY prospects during this season).
As for Whiteside? Keep him on as long as he's doing well, and then either a.) have him backup Posey when/if Molina is gone or b.) cut ties with him altogether. Seriously, I know Whiteside is a great story, but like I said before, history shows that he isn't a Major League catcher (and many people are in line with this thought as well).
This is all theory of course, but knowing Sabean and his "thoughts" on Posey and Triple-A, I doubt all this will happen. It's more likely to see a sixth season of "The Wire" than Molina traded away and Whiteside released to make room for Posey.
Giants Baseball: Where Blocking and Jettisoning Promising Players Happens!
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Molina Signing Sets Back Posey, Giants' Future for Another Year
It was supposed to be Buster Posey time in San Francisco in 2010.
Sure, there were rumors that there would perhaps be another guy to keep the seat warm as Posey eased himself into the starting position. A lot of people were thinking about Rod Barajas as an option. Some were thinking about a Gregg Zaun-esque player. Heck, some people even thought Yorvit Torrealba coming back to San Francisco was a realistic possibility.
Whoever the temp would be, the plan seemed to be clear: whether it was Opening Day or by May or June, Posey was going to be the man calling pitches for the Giants.
Or so that was the plan... until Bengie Molina re-signed with the Giants today.
Now, with Posey's lack of experience catching at the big league level, and manager Bruce Bochy's undying love of Molina (and batting him in the cleanup spot to boot), the "Posey Era", which was talked about so much this Winter, seems to be on hold.
As a Giants fan, it's hard to understand fully what happened. Sure, there are certain things that make sense.
For starters, Posey is inexperienced, and considering the team has aspirations to make the playoffs last year after barely missing out in 2009, Molina is more suited to start for this team. Furthermore, when you couple that with the fact the Giants got him on a one year deal because Molina and his agents severely overestimated his market value (seriously, did he really think he was worth a three-year contract in this economy?), then this really is on paper a win-win for the Giants. The Giants get an experienced catcher, a solid (if unspectacular) hitter, and they got him at a relative bargain considering what he was demanding when the off-season began.
However, Molina's signing still makes Giants fans wonder. It makes fans wonder if General Manager Brian Sabean has gotten any smarter or dumber since being put in hot water after the 2007 season.
In some ways, you could make the argument for both. When you look at the glass half-full, no longer is Sabean throwing really big money at aging guys. He only signed Huff for one year, and he only signed Molina for one year, and they will make less than ten million dollars combined. Three or four years ago, Sabean signs both these guys for no less than nine million per year each, and no less than three years. So, in that sense, you have to think Sabean is learning after 13 years.
On the flip side, he's still signing aging guys, not necessarily a good thing. With Tim Lincecum filing a record $13 million arbitration offer today, Sabean needs to show his young star players (mainly Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval) that he has a solid team built for the future in order to keep them from jumping ship to New York or Boston when they offer them more money when they become free agents. However, when your core team is built around a guy who tanked in Detroit after the Trade Deadline, and a cleanup hitter who had an on-base percentage under .300, I don't necessarily know if you're really building for the future, even if you have a lot of talent in the Minor Leagues.
There are many questions to ask about this whole Molina re-signing. Will the Giants be better? Will Molina be a better hitter now that he isn't forced to bat cleanup? Will Bochy still hit him cleanup even though he has better (although not much better) options in Huff and Derosa?
That being said though, I think the main question Giants fans will continue to ask until Opening Day is this: will Buster Posey ever be given a chance to show off that upside he has?
As of now, it almost seems definite that Giants fans won't get an answer to that question until at least the 2011 season.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Brian Sabean Watch: So Far, So Good, But...
Okay, Brian Sabean is back for two more years. We know that for sure, Giants fans have to live with it.
But how's the GM doing so far? Well, I think you can look at a few things that have characterized this offseason for the Giants so far.
-Bengie Molina not offered arbitration
-Juan Uribe and Brad Penny turning down contracts to become Free Agents
-Ryan Garko being non-tendered
For the first thing, I really like this. Look, Molina has probably been the best catcher the Giants have had this decade. The only close competitor is Benito Santiago, and Santiago wasn't forced to bat cleanup, he was in a loaded lineup with Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent, and he was on steroids. The close third would be Bobby Estalella, but I only liked him because his at-bat song was The Rock's theme song (yes, the pro "do you smell what the Rock is cooking" wrestler).
However, the Giants have Buster Posey. Posey has proven he can play at Triple-A. He has nothing to prove except at the Major League level. If he may not be ready at the beginning of the year, he certainly would be ready by mid-season, and I think an arbitration contract would be too much for one half-year of Molina. Thus, just from what it looks like, the Giants probably will sign a low-tier veteran (in the Ryan Bard, Brian Schneider mold) to be an emergency just in case Posey doesn't have a good Spring Training or gets off to a slow start. Believe me Giants fans who love Bengie Molina, this is the right thing to do. Posey's upside is too much. The Giants can't supplant him in the minors for another year.
As for the second item, it's predictable, mainly because Edgar Renteria is going nowhere, and Sabean signed Freddie Sanchez to a two year, six-million per year deal. So, Uribe has nowhere to go, and is basically a utility infielder...again. The Giants got lucky with Uribe last year, who was coming off such a bad year. To be perfectly honest, I think the Giants could have gotten away with just signing Uribe and passing on Renteria. However, since Renteria is likely staying in a Giants uniform next year, Sabean needed to let Uribe go. Uribe is going to command some money. Some team like the Royals or Nationals is going to pay a decent buck for him. That being said, it was very fun to have Uribe for one season, even if it took Bochy half the season to realized that he was more capable of playing everyday than Matt Downs.
In terms of Penny, I was very relieved Sabean passed on him. First off, I want Madison Bumgarner in the rotation. The guy proved he could pitch last year. Did he have his best stuff? No, but he certainly proved that he could come in and not get shellacked, not to mention hold his own. When he has his best stuff, and is more under careful watch (he pitched his arm off in the minors) Bumgarner will be a lethal No. 5 starter behind Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Sanchez. As for Penny? He had a great second half, but there were some alarming trends with the guy: low strikeout, high flyball, groundball out numbers. I guess in a park like AT&T you can get away with that, but I'm not willing to shell out big bucks for what was most likely a fluky, "F-you mode" second half with the Giants ("F-you mode" because almost everyone wrote off the pickup as a dumb move by Sabean originally, when in fact, it turned out to be Sabes' best trade deal that season).
And lastly, I just found this out today, but Ryan Garko will not be tendered a contract, according to the San Francisco Examiner Web site. Personally, I love this. One, I think Garko was a crappy pickup from the beginning. His home run numbers were incredibly slanted because he played in a home run hitter's park in Cleveland, and his choke up two-strike approach is the kind of crap you only see in Little League these days. I know Garko is a standup guy, but I'll take Travis Ishikawa, who while is more strikeout prone, gives you more bang for the buck in terms of power, and is a lot better defensively.
Of course, what could change this maneuver from a good decision by Sabean to a poor one is if he does one of two things: a.) he signs Adam LaRoche or Nick Johnson. b.) he moves Sandoval to first.
First off, I would hate Adam LaRoche to be in a Giants uniform. I know I actually campaigned for him before on Bleacher Report, but the guy stinks, and his swing is not tailor made for AT&T Park. Nick Johnson I do like though. He's a high OBP guy (which the Giants desperately need) and he's good defensively. Does he have power? Only if you consider eight home runs last year power, but I think his ability to draw walks is something that the Giants need in order to be contenders. My only concern is Johnson is injury prone, but with Ishikawa as back-up (along with Jesus Guzman, perhaps) I think that will be fine. I would rather have Johnson and Ishikawa and Guzman platooning than Johnson and Garko.
As for the move for Sandoval. I guess it makes sense (because the Giants' best offensive lineup [when they were forced to play Renteria] consisted of Uribe at third and Sandoval at first). However, I don't like the move. Sandoval has a glove, and a cannon, the problem is that his cannon is too wild. That will eventually be molded with more time. It's not the Miguel Cabrera problem with Sandoval where he doesn't have any range like Cabrera. He surprisingly has range for a guy his size. He just need to get his arm accuracy under control. I sincerely think he can do that, and when he does, he will be a solid third baseman for the Giants for years to come.
Okay, so those are the issues so far with Sabean. My analysis? I like what he's doing. He's giving Giants fans what we wanted when the season ended (passing on aging veterans, and being conservative with money). Now, are Giants fans out of the woods with him? Oh heavens no! There are plenty of moments for Sabes to be Sabes (Adam LaRoche would be the dagger). Yet for now, I think Giants can breathe easily, knowing that Bill Neukom wasn't a complete moron for re-signing Sabes so far.
But how's the GM doing so far? Well, I think you can look at a few things that have characterized this offseason for the Giants so far.
-Bengie Molina not offered arbitration
-Juan Uribe and Brad Penny turning down contracts to become Free Agents
-Ryan Garko being non-tendered
For the first thing, I really like this. Look, Molina has probably been the best catcher the Giants have had this decade. The only close competitor is Benito Santiago, and Santiago wasn't forced to bat cleanup, he was in a loaded lineup with Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent, and he was on steroids. The close third would be Bobby Estalella, but I only liked him because his at-bat song was The Rock's theme song (yes, the pro "do you smell what the Rock is cooking" wrestler).
However, the Giants have Buster Posey. Posey has proven he can play at Triple-A. He has nothing to prove except at the Major League level. If he may not be ready at the beginning of the year, he certainly would be ready by mid-season, and I think an arbitration contract would be too much for one half-year of Molina. Thus, just from what it looks like, the Giants probably will sign a low-tier veteran (in the Ryan Bard, Brian Schneider mold) to be an emergency just in case Posey doesn't have a good Spring Training or gets off to a slow start. Believe me Giants fans who love Bengie Molina, this is the right thing to do. Posey's upside is too much. The Giants can't supplant him in the minors for another year.
As for the second item, it's predictable, mainly because Edgar Renteria is going nowhere, and Sabean signed Freddie Sanchez to a two year, six-million per year deal. So, Uribe has nowhere to go, and is basically a utility infielder...again. The Giants got lucky with Uribe last year, who was coming off such a bad year. To be perfectly honest, I think the Giants could have gotten away with just signing Uribe and passing on Renteria. However, since Renteria is likely staying in a Giants uniform next year, Sabean needed to let Uribe go. Uribe is going to command some money. Some team like the Royals or Nationals is going to pay a decent buck for him. That being said, it was very fun to have Uribe for one season, even if it took Bochy half the season to realized that he was more capable of playing everyday than Matt Downs.
In terms of Penny, I was very relieved Sabean passed on him. First off, I want Madison Bumgarner in the rotation. The guy proved he could pitch last year. Did he have his best stuff? No, but he certainly proved that he could come in and not get shellacked, not to mention hold his own. When he has his best stuff, and is more under careful watch (he pitched his arm off in the minors) Bumgarner will be a lethal No. 5 starter behind Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Sanchez. As for Penny? He had a great second half, but there were some alarming trends with the guy: low strikeout, high flyball, groundball out numbers. I guess in a park like AT&T you can get away with that, but I'm not willing to shell out big bucks for what was most likely a fluky, "F-you mode" second half with the Giants ("F-you mode" because almost everyone wrote off the pickup as a dumb move by Sabean originally, when in fact, it turned out to be Sabes' best trade deal that season).
And lastly, I just found this out today, but Ryan Garko will not be tendered a contract, according to the San Francisco Examiner Web site. Personally, I love this. One, I think Garko was a crappy pickup from the beginning. His home run numbers were incredibly slanted because he played in a home run hitter's park in Cleveland, and his choke up two-strike approach is the kind of crap you only see in Little League these days. I know Garko is a standup guy, but I'll take Travis Ishikawa, who while is more strikeout prone, gives you more bang for the buck in terms of power, and is a lot better defensively.
Of course, what could change this maneuver from a good decision by Sabean to a poor one is if he does one of two things: a.) he signs Adam LaRoche or Nick Johnson. b.) he moves Sandoval to first.
First off, I would hate Adam LaRoche to be in a Giants uniform. I know I actually campaigned for him before on Bleacher Report, but the guy stinks, and his swing is not tailor made for AT&T Park. Nick Johnson I do like though. He's a high OBP guy (which the Giants desperately need) and he's good defensively. Does he have power? Only if you consider eight home runs last year power, but I think his ability to draw walks is something that the Giants need in order to be contenders. My only concern is Johnson is injury prone, but with Ishikawa as back-up (along with Jesus Guzman, perhaps) I think that will be fine. I would rather have Johnson and Ishikawa and Guzman platooning than Johnson and Garko.
As for the move for Sandoval. I guess it makes sense (because the Giants' best offensive lineup [when they were forced to play Renteria] consisted of Uribe at third and Sandoval at first). However, I don't like the move. Sandoval has a glove, and a cannon, the problem is that his cannon is too wild. That will eventually be molded with more time. It's not the Miguel Cabrera problem with Sandoval where he doesn't have any range like Cabrera. He surprisingly has range for a guy his size. He just need to get his arm accuracy under control. I sincerely think he can do that, and when he does, he will be a solid third baseman for the Giants for years to come.
Okay, so those are the issues so far with Sabean. My analysis? I like what he's doing. He's giving Giants fans what we wanted when the season ended (passing on aging veterans, and being conservative with money). Now, are Giants fans out of the woods with him? Oh heavens no! There are plenty of moments for Sabes to be Sabes (Adam LaRoche would be the dagger). Yet for now, I think Giants can breathe easily, knowing that Bill Neukom wasn't a complete moron for re-signing Sabes so far.
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