Callup Profile: Darren Ford, Outfielder

With Andres Torres hitting the DL on April 10th, the Giants called up Darren Ford, the speedy outfielder who spent the last season in the Eastern League with Richmond and started off the year in the Pacific Coast League with Fresno. Ford had gotten off to a good start with the Grizzlies, as he was batting .323 with a .848 OPS in 33 plate appearances to start off the year. Additionally, he had scored six runs, had two doubles, a home run and seven stolen bases on seven attempts in his seven game start in Triple-A, so it's safe to say he was deserving of the callup.

In all reality though, Ford is mostly likely due for a cup of coffee callup with the Giants until Torres returns off the Disabled List. Though Ford offers a nice speed skill set for the Giants and can cover some ground in the outfield (he had a 2.44 RF/G last year with the Flying Squirrels), the Giants outfield is crowded already with Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, Pat Burrell, Mark Derosa and Cody Ross (who was just activated off the DL today with Brandon Belt being optioned to Fresno...more on this later). Furthermore, Ford probably needs a year of Triple-A under his belt before he can get some serious consideration for playing time in the Giants outfield. After a solid season in San Jose in 2009 where he hit .300, posted an .843 OPS and stole 35 bases (albeit he was old for the level at 23), he kind of cooled off in the Eastern League, as his average and OPS fell to .251 and .680, respectively. While he still showcased some base-stealing ability (he swiped 37 bases), Ford really wasn't considered a factor for the 25-man roster going into Spring Training this year.


Strengths

• Ford can steal bases, though he probably could be more efficient at it (he was caught stealing 27 times in 2009 and 2010). With Torres really the only base stealing threat, Ford offers a much-needed skill set to this Giants roster.
• Ford showcases decent plate patience. From 2007-2009, he posted walker percentages over 10 at every level he played at and in Richmond, his walk percentage was 7.6 percent. While his BB/K ratio dipped a bit (0.37) from his impressive 2009 (0.51), Ford always has shown a decent difference between his batting average and OBP at every level he's played at.
• With outfielders like Burrell and perhaps Huff (though he's probably going back to first when Brandon Belt eventually gets sent down to Fresno), there is definitely a need on the corners to cover ground, especially when Torres isn't in the lineup. While he's not on Torres' level, Ford has earned good reports as a solid outfielder who can cover ground at any outfield position. Considering AT&T's dimensions, his defensive ability and athleticism is definitely a plus.

Weaknesses

• While his walk numbers have been solid, he does strike out a lot for a leadoff guy. He struck out a 106 times in 2010 and 97 times in 2009. In 2008, in a combined stint in San Jose and Brevard County (he was in the Brewers' system before he was acquired by the Giants in the Ray Durham deal), he whiffed a 130 times. Yes, Ford is patient at the plate, but he needs to neutralize his strikeouts a bit, especially considering how his walk percentage dipped in the jump from A-plus ball to Double-A.
• Much like any leadoff hitter, Ford doesn't showcase much power. However, he doesn't get many extra base hits either, as his slugging percentage has only been over .400 once at any level he's played at in the minors (that was in 2009 when he slugged .465 in a hitter's park in San Jose). While his slap-hitting style isn't necessarily a bad thing, with his speed set, you wish he could total more bags with his hits.

Outlook for 2011

Ford is still a raw talent in the Fred Lewis-mold (And I liked Lewis). He has a lot of athleticism, but he doesn't exactly have a lot of power and his athleticism seems to carry him to success more often than not. That may work at lower levels such as A-ball, but when you get to higher levels of play, that doesn't seem to work quite as often. While his campaign in Richmond was a bit disappointing considering how well he hit in San Jose, it wasn't surprising or all that discouraging considering the jump to Double-A (and the Eastern League) has always been unkind to hitters (case in point, his BABIP dipped to .314 after he had a .379 BABIP in San Jose the year before).

Ford's ceiling as a prospect may not be very high, and not just this year (I don't expect him to play very much unless Torres' injury really persists), but in the long-run as well (but that's understandable considering he was an 18th round pick). That being said, considering speed is definitely a need for this Giants roster, Ford could be an interesting prospect who could make a run for some playing time in the outfield in the future, especially when the roster clears up after Ross, Burrell, Rowand and Derosa's contracts expire in the next couple of years.

Did Andres Torres Deserve a Gold Glove?

Shane Victorino. Michael Bourne. Carlos Gonzalez.

Your NL Gold Glove outfielders for the 2010 season.

Now, there's nothing wrong with those choices. If the writers gave  one to last year's winner (Matt Kemp), I would have had serious problems with the award (though the "legitimacy" of the award already is on shaky ground after Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove for AL shortstop and Orlando Hudson winning it last year).

But, as a Giants fan, it would have been nice to see a journeyman like Torres take away some hardware, especially when you look at his defensive numbers according to UZR (just freaking off the charts).

As Rob Neyer concluded, what probably killed Torres from earning a Gold Glove was him playing multiple positions throughout the year. Unlike Neyer, I think this is an asinine argument. Right field in San Francisco is one of the toughest places to play defensively. You have to give up considerable room on the foul line to protect Triple's Alley. There's a reason why Randy Winn started in right for so long though he didn't have a "typical" right fielder's arm: the guy could cover the necessary ground in right at AT&T. (Of course, so did Nate Schierholtz, but that is an argument for another day...this is 2010! The Giants are champs!)

So, if anything, that should have helped his chances, right? You had Torres able to not only play center, but play right in a park where the fielder needs to be athletic and apt enough to play center. You don't believe me? Ask Garrett Jones and Vlad Guerrero about playing right in AT&T. They'll tell you it ain't easy.

What do I believe killed Torres' chances this year?

He's not a name. And it's sad that baseball writers seem hesitant to think outside the box when it comes to this award. If the Academy Awards were ran like the Gold Glove awards, Tom Hanks would have beaten Robert Benigni that one year for best actor in 1997. Was Tom Hanks great in "Saving Private Ryan"? Yeah, he was. But Benigni was special, and the Academy actually had the guts to say "You know what, it isn't familiar, but let's do it because the under the radar guys need to be recognized."

The baseball writers had a chance to have a "Life is Beautiful" moment this year with Torres. Instead, like the Academy went safe with picking Sean Penn over Mickey Rourke for best actor, they did the same with the NL Gold Gloves. Completely safe, logical, but rather uninspiring choices. Look...I'm glad for Bourne, CarGo and Victorino. They're all likable players and they are certainly deserving. But, you can't question how much of an impact Torres had in terms of saving runs in the outfield (whether you are in the sabermetric or "I judge baseball with my eyes" camp). You can't question that Torres probably made Pat Burrell look better than he was, because he was chasing the balls Burrell probably should have gotten to. You think the baseball writers would take into consideration ballparks, especially considering how Coors and Citizens Bank are crackerboxes in comparison to AT&T.

But sigh...they didn't. Oh well, Andres. You're the Gold Glover in Giants' fans hearts, and the World Series trophy proves it.

I can't wait for the NL Rookie of the Year award to be presented.

Which Snubbed Giants Have An All-Star Case to Make?

First off, congratulations to Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson for making the NL All-Star roster. I know Lincecum hasn't been as dominant as in years past, but take this into consideration: despite his "off-year" Lincecum is still ranked fourth in the National League in FIP (ahead of Ubaldo Jimenez actually). So, despite him probably not being as big a "shoe-in" as the past two seasons, Lincecum was certainly deserving of the berth. As for Wilson, I've been harping that he's been one of the league's best closers, and his numbers go beyond saves. In terms of FIP, he's the fourth-best reliever in the National League. That is a far cry from 2008, his previous All-Star season, when his FIP was 3.93.

However, there are some notable exceptions on this Giants roster. Aubrey Huff, Matt Cain, Andres Torres, and Juan Uribe are all names that deserved some All-Star attention, but didn't get the invite today. Unfortunately, it seems like any of them getting in is a long shot at this point. None of the Giants players listed are in the running for the fan "vote-in" (Heath Bell, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Billy Wagner, and Ryan Zimmerman were the final five candidates chosen).

So, which Giants players have beefs, and which ones probably aren't All-Star worthy? Let's break down each player's "candidacy."


Aubrey Huff
.290 average, 15 home runs, 47 RBI, .391 wOBA, 17.4 wRAA, 2.6 WAR.

Huff probably is the most legitimate All-Star out of all the Giants players snubbed. He is ranked behind only Joey Votto and Albert Pujols in terms of wOBA for NL first baseman, and his 17.4 wRAA is tied for fourth out of NL first basemen as well. In addition to his offensive skills, Huff has shown tremendous defensive ability (4.2 UZR/150 at first base; 7.5 UZR/150 in the outfield) and flexibility (he has started at first base, left and right field). Thus, it's no surprise Huff's WAR is 2.6, which values to about $10.4 million dollars, according to Fangraphs.

So, why isn't Huff an All-Star? He's coming off an atrocious year, and he is playing for a Giants roster that has made more noise for their pitching and LACK of offense. It's really unfair. Huff is doing what Adrian Gonzalez did a year ago, but while Gonzalez has gotten the respect, Huff's incredible first half has been swept under the rug by the fans, players and of course, Charlie "I hate the Giants players" Manuel.

To illustrate my point that Huff is an All-Star-caliber player this year? He has a higher wOBA than All-Star first base reserves Gonzalez (.386) and Ryan Howard (.367). And, Huff's WAR is almost one and a half points better than Howard's (1.3).

Did Huff Get Snubbed?
Huff deserved an All-Star berth, but this system for first basemen is flawed to begin with. The fact that Joey Votto didn't make the roster is a travesty. Huff, unfortunately, is a victim at a position where fans, players and managers value big flies and hype more than actual overall performance.


Matt Cain
6-7 record, 2.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.60 FIP, 2.1 WAR.

Cain was an All-Star last year, and his year this season has been pretty similar to his 2009. He still has been pretty lucky (.262 BABIP) and his high xFIP (4.70) suggest that he may be due for a tough stretch sometime soon, but Cain has still been solid as the Giants' second-best pitcher behind Lincecum. Cain has showed improved control (2.93 BB/9, the first time it's been under three in his career), and he has already thrown almost as many complete games (three) as last season (four).

The main difference between Cain of this season and Cain of last year has been the record. Last year, Cain went 10-2 in the first half of the season, and it seemed to ride him into an All-Star berth. Don't believe the record has any effect? Look at Ubaldo Jimenez, who's advanced numbers are actually LESS impressive than a season ago. What has gotten him into the All-Star game? His 14-1 record trumps his 6-9 record in the first half a season ago.

Much like Jimenez isn't a better pitcher than he was a year ago (though he certainly should have gotten more credit), Cain isn't much WORSE a pitcher in 2010 in comparison to 2009. It's just that the run support hasn't been great (typical for Cain) and he hasn't gotten as lucky.

Did Cain Get Snubbed?
The problem with Cain is that he may have not been an All-Star caliber pitcher last year if not for his 10-2 record. He doesn't have great strikeout stuff, and his BABIP shows that he has been lucky this year (though his 76.4 LOB percentage suggests he hasn't been as lucky as 2009, when his LOB percentage wasn't under 83 percent for the first three months of play). Cain is a very good pitcher, don't get me wrong. But is he an All-Star like Lincecum based on the numbers? That might be harder to prove, especially when Cain isn't ranked in the Top-15 of NL Starting Pitchers in terms of FIP.


Andres Torres
.275 average, .819 OPS, 15 stolen bases, .370 wOBA, 11.0 UZR, 3.0 WAR.

Torres would have been a great story for the All-Star team. The 33-year old journeyman who went from poor, free swinging slap hitter with the Detroit Tigers to patient, speedy hitter with pop to the Giants. Torres has all the credentials of an All-Star candidate: great speed (15 stolen bases on 18 attempts), great defense (27.1 UZR/150), excellent run generation (10 wRAA), and plate patience (0.68 BB/K ratio).

Unfortunately, the powers that be felt Michael Bourn and his .319 wOBA was a better candidate in the outfield (seriously, I hate this "Every team needs one All-Star" rule; the Fresno Grizzlies have more All-Star candidates than the Houston Astros).

Torres can certainly rank up there with the best outfielders in the National League. However, Torres unfortunately plays at a position where the talent level is very deep. Torres' wOBA ranks him 12th out of NL outfielders. Fellow All-Star Snubs like Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus look to be far more enticing candidates than Torres, though Torres' defensive value does give him an edge (He has the second-best UZR out of NL outfielders).

Did Torres Get Snubbed?
When you look at him in terms of pre-season hype and offense alone? No. There are a lot better outfielders offensively than Torres (though that shouldn't take anything away from Torres' season). However, when you look at his defense, and add that with his offensive numbers? Torres looks a lot more like an All-Star-worthy player. Unfortunately, it's offense, not defense and overall value that generate hype for an All-Star berth, and that killed Torres' chances before it could get started.


Juan Uribe
.256 average, 12 HR, .335 wOBA, 2.6 wRAA, 1.6 WAR.

Would you believe me if I told you that Uribe, going into today, was the third-best shortstop in terms of wOBA? Would you believe me if I told you that Uribe has been better offensively than Jose Reyes, who made the All-Star team, and Uribe's higher wOBA and wRAA prove it?

Well, it's the truth, and though he has cooled recently, Uribe still could make an argument that he has been one of the National League's better shortstops this season. Uribe has hit with some surprising pop (12 home runs) and he has done this despite his BABIP (.262) being shockingly low (the league average is .299 and his BABIP last year was .325).


Did Uribe Get Snubbed?
I love Uribe, but no. He didn't. The National League shortstop position is shockingly shallow in terms of talent beyond Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez. Uribe is simply the best of a rather mediocre bunch. Furthermore, Uribe's minus-6.6 UZR/150 at shortstop this year has killed any overall value he might have, and despite a high BB/K ratio (0.57), he has swung at more pitches outside the strike zone this year (32.2 percent in comparison to 31 percent last year) and has a higher whiff percentage in 2010 (12.2 percent) than in 2009 (11.5 percent). Uribe is a solid utility infielder to have, but he's no All-Star.

New Poll Up: Which Giants Deserve to Make the NL All-Star Team?

Just a quick post. I put up a poll on the sidebar asking which Giants deserve to make the All-Star game in Anaheim this year. I narrowed it down to eight guys who have a realistic chance of making it:

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Freddy Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, and Andres Torres.

I left out Jonathan Sanchez from the list because of his inconsistency and Buster Posey and Pat Burrell because they don't have that many games under the belt.

You can vote for multiple guys on the list. In my opinion: I would think five guys are deserving: Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, Huff, and Torres. Uribe has been good, but I can't see him getting a boost over Troy Tulowitzki (who was an MVP candidate until he got hurt) and Hanley Ramirez (though he certainly is a better candidate than guys like Jimmy Rollins and Orlando Cabrera, as Crazy Crabbers notes). Also, I put Sandoval on this list more out of formality, since his year hasn't been as good as last season. As for Sanchez, he too has been awesome, but I'm not sure if his sample is large enough in comparison to other second baseman in the league.

Would love any input on your all-star picks. You can vote for real on MLB.com. It would be nice to see some Giants position players on the NL roster for once.

How Real Is Andres Torres' 2010 Season?

If there is one player on this Giants roster that is hard to project for the rest of the season, it has to be Andres Torres.

Based on statistical data, Torres' 2010 is simply unbelievable considering his history.

Here is Torres' line before he came to San Francisco in 2009:

.210 batting average, .258 OBP, .276 slugging, .534 OPS, .219 wOBA in 89 games between Detroit and Texas from 2002-2005.

Here is what he has done since coming to the Bay Area:

.281 average, .363 OBP, .513 slugging, .877 OPS, .385 wOBA in 118 games with the Giants from 2009-2010.

That's an incredible jump, especially in the categories of OBP (where he jumped 105 points), wOBA (166 points) and slugging (237 points). Basically, Torres turned himself from free hacking, slap hitter (think a poor man's Juan Pierre) to a patient, speedy leadoff hitter with serious pop (think Brady Anderson).

Now, who is the real Torres? Is Torres going to keep up this hitting prowess for the remainder of the 2010 season? Or is he going to fall back to his career numbers prior to his arrival in San Francisco?

Well, Giants fans should believe in the latter and I'll point to you a reason why:

Torres is a different player from his Tiger and Ranger days, and his minor league numbers in 2007 and 2008 and improvement from 2009 to 2010 show that.

Since 2005, Torres pretty much bounced around in Triple-A. He played for four Triple-A clubs from 2005-2009: Oklahoma (Texas), Rochester (Minnesota), Iowa (Chicago), Toledo (Detroit), and Fresno (San Francisco). (He also played for a Double-A club, the Erie Seawolves, in 2007.)

In 2005 and 2006, Torres seemed to be the same player he was in Detroit and Texas (e.g. a slap hitter without much plate patience). He posted a a .743 OPS in 15 games with Oklahoma in 2005 and a .687 OPS (and .317 wOBA) in 118 games with Rochester the following the season.

However, starting in 2007, Torres' numbers took a huge spike...in a good way.

Starting in Double-A Erie, the Tigers' Double-A club, Torres posted solid numbers in 85 games. His OPS improved to .844 in Double-A, his OBP jumped to .372, and he hit 11 triples and six home runs (he had only 11 triples and home runs combined the previous season in Rochester).

Later in the year, Torres was promoted to Toledo, the Tigers' Triple-A club. He continued to show the power he showed in Double-A in the International League. While his OBP went down (to .348), his slugging went up (from .472 in Double-A to .506 in Triple-A) as did his OPS (from .844 to .854). What was the reason for the average jumps? In 42 games, Torres hit nine triples and four home runs.

Now, the OBP drop in Toledo was to be expected. After making progress in drawing walks (Torres has a 0.56 and 0.58 BB/K ratios in 2006 in Rochester and 2007 in Toledo, which included walk rates over 10 percent), he took a step back in Toledo. His BB/K ratio hovered around 0.28, and his walk percentage dropped to 5.8 percent in Triple-A (almost a five point drop from Double-A).

However, the following season in Iowa, Torres brought back his BB/K numbers up to the numbers he put up in Rochester and Erie. In 2008, he finished the year with a 0.53 BB/K ratio (which included an 11.5 percent BB/9). The better part though about his 2008 season? His power didn't drop from Toledo despite the better plate discipline.

With the Cubs, Torres posted a .892 OPS and a .397 wOBA. His wRC (runs created based on wOBA) was 86.7, 28 points higher than his previous high in Double-A in 2007, and in addition to hitting 10 triples, 11 home runs and scoring 91 runs, he also stole 29 bases on 33 attempts.

Granted, Torres put up these numbers as a 30 year old in Triple-A. As evidenced by Joe Borchard this year in Fresno, that doesn't necessarily translate into big league success.

Despite those odds being against him, Torres has succeeded at the Major League level with the Giants. Furthermore, he has shown progression from 2009 as well.

One of the reasons I was skeptical of Torres going into the 2010 season was because of his low BB/K ratio (0.36 in 2009), high O-Swing percentage (29.1 percent), low contact rate (72.3), and low GB/FB percentage (0.69) considering his speed (eight triples and six stolen bases in 170 plate appearances in 2009).

So far, he has improved on those numbers. While his contact rate (81.3 percent in 2010) and GB/FB ratio (0.93; but he's helped by a 26.2 percent line drive percentage) aren't anything special, they certainly are improvements from 2009. However, his main improvement has been in his O-Swing percentage (pitches swung outside the strike zone) and BB/K ratio. He cut down his O-Swing percentage to 23.2 percent and his BB/K ratio sits at 0.76.

Torres has the credentials of a true leadoff hitter in 2010, something you couldn't necessarily say out of him last year based on his stats.

Overall, Torres has been a surprise, and it will be predictable to see his stats regress over time. His BABIP is high at .343, and considering his GB/FB ratio, it is likely that it won't sustain at that level for the remainder of the season.

However, if you look at his overall statistics, Torres has made incredible progress as a Giant, and he should continue to make an impact in the leadoff spot. Now, I know Giants fans worry that he might fall back into the numbers of his Tiger days, but I think Giants fans shouldn't fret. Torres isn't the same player, and his minor league numbers from 2007 and 2008, and his improvement in plate discipline from 2009 to 2010 is proof that that this "San Francisco" Torres is different from the "Detroit" Torres.

Trying to Understand John Bowker, "MLB-Version"

I really, really like John Bowker. I admit that. I like him more than Nate Schierholtz (though nothing against Nate, it's like comparing Penelope Cruz and Salma Hayek; I just like Penelope and Bowker a little more), which is why I petitioned him for the starting right field position and supported manager Bruce Bochy's call on Opening Day.

Why do I like him? I'm not really sure. Maybe he's from Sacramento, and being a Sacramento-resident, I feel obligated to support my own. Maybe I like the power potential he showed when he burst on the scene in 2008.

However, despite my gravitation toward Bowker, I have to admit one thing: Bowker hasn't really impressed too much at the Major League level.

In 2008, Bowker put up solid numbers, hitting 10 home runs and driving in 43 RBI in 350 plate appearances with the Giants. His OBP (.300), OPS (.703) or wOBA (.307) weren't that impressive, but I think the 10 home runs gave some Giants fans hope that Bowker was on the cusp of being at least a solid, regularly-contributing player to the Giants roster in a couple of years.

One of the main beefs about Bowker at the time was his plate approach. In 2008 with the Giants, Bowker had a BB/K ratio of 0.26, which in all honesty is not very good. Thus, if Bowker was going to contribute at the next level, he needed to improve his eye at the plate and cut down the strikeouts or at the very least, up the walk numbers and ability to get on-base.

Surprisingly, in 2009 in Fresno, Bowker did that and more.

After never posting a BB/K ratio higher than 0.40 at any professional level prior to 2009, Bowker was incredible in Fresno. People talk about the home runs (21), the OPS (1.047) or the average (.342), but the most eye-popping statistic in my mind was Bowker's 1.16 BB/K ratio (an 86 point improvement from the previous season, which is equivalent to Robert Downey's career jump after 2005).

Everybody, including myself, was convinced. Bowker was set and ready for the Major League level.

However, he struggled in his callup in 2009, and looked far from comfortable in the batter's box for the Giants. In 73 plate appearances, Bowker hit .194, posted an OPS of .620 and sported a wOBA of .277. And, unlike 2008, he didn't add much power either. He had only six extra-base hits (including two home runs).

The worst part of it all for Bowker though happened to be his dip in his BB/K ratio. After putting up unbelievable numbers in 2009 in Fresno, he didn't seem to be any better from the 2008 version Giants fans saw in San Francisco. His BB/K ratio in 2009 with the Giants was 0.22 (compounded by a strikeout rate of 26.9 percent).

Then again though, us Bowker defenders tried not to fret too much. We pointed out to the small sample in the Major Leagues as reason to not completely jump ship on him. We pointed out that the large sample in Fresno was for real, and with Hensley Meulens (the Fresno hitting coach in 2009) taking over the Giants hitting coach position in 2010, Bowker was ready to break out.

Despite a solid Spring Training, Bowker continues to show more of the same.

In 45 plate appearances in 2010, Bowker is hitting .186 with a .525 OPS and a wOBA of .222. His BB/K ratio is almost laughable at 0.17 and his strikeout rate (27.9 percent) is almost six points higher than it was in 2008.

None of it makes sense. This was supposed to be Bowker's year. Everything was in place: the hitting coach, the starting gig, the "nothing to prove" factor in Fresno.

And yet, here we are again, with Bowker most likely heading down to Fresno once Freddy Sanchez returns off the Disabled List.

What is wrong with Bowker? What made him such a stud in 2009 in Triple-A? Why does he look like Albert Pujols in the Pacific Coast League, but in the Majors, he seems to swing at every breaking ball in the dirt?

At this point, I don't understand, and many Giants fans do not either. Yes, he is somewhat getting better. He swings at less pitches outside the strike zone (24.6 percent) in comparison to his first Major League stint in 2008 (when it was 32.3 percent). He has made better contact this year (76.7 percent) than last year (72.2) percent. He hasn't hit many flyballs (his FB percentage is 29.0 percent this year), but he makes those flyballs count (11.1 percent HR/FB ratio).

Bowker is getting there. He hasn't made the progress or had the luck we Giants fans hoped for this year, but Bowker is a better hitter now than he was in 2008. The numbers prove it.

However, with Bochy as manager, and average defensive skills, Bowker doesn't look like he has much time to prove to the Giants that he is the guy to be playing everyday for Orange and Black. Giants management and fans seem to be more in favor of other outfielders like Schierholtz and Torres, and in many ways, you can't blame them. Schierholtz is hitting well (.819 OPS, .370 wOBA, and 0.60 BB/K ratio) and Torres provides a ton of defensive value. Those are two things you can't necessarily say Bowker possesses at this moment.

As a Giants and Bowker fan, I hope he can gets his way out of this mess. I hope his BABIP (currently .233) rises and he can finally look better on paper for the Giants fans who constantly point to his average and other conventional stats (RBI!) as reasons why he is a bust.

Bowker is not a bust...yet. He just needs to catch some breaks.

Or at least that is what I'm telling myself now.

"Around the Candlestick": Torres Talk, MadBum's Velocity, Wellemeyer's Strong Start, Hot Stove Giants Radio, and Hat Tips

Haven't done one of these for a while, and considering I don't want to write extensively on something new (at least yet anyways), I figured an "Around the Candlestick" is due. Keep in mind three things as you read these bits.

1.) It's Conference and NCAA Tournament time in College Basketball, and other than baseball season, this is the the time where I care the most about sports. Seriously, the NCAA Tournament is heaven for a sports fan: it's gambling mixed with sports knowledge mixed with crazy fans mixed with booze mixed with incredibly joy for no reason mixed with un-scalable (thanks to the Jersey kids for the new adjective!) heartache. I absolutely love College basketball from Early March until April.

2.) I'm getting ready for an auction fantasy baseball draft (via Yahoo!). I'm both excited/nervous/preparing/clueless for the inevitable draft that comes up in little over a week (this is my first auction draft). I'm having a mock draft tomorrow. Whether or not that will help is to be determined.

3.) Manny Pacquiao and Joshua Clottey are fighting tonight. This fight is a big dilemma for me, mainly because I love both fighters. I think Pacquiao will win, but I'm nervous because I think Clottey is a lot better fighter than most casual boxing fans think (if he pressed more in the last round, he would have won his fight against Miguel Cotto).

Okay, here are the bits so far.


Andres Torres the Hot Topic of Conversation on the Blogosphere.

Both Bay City Ball and Croix De Candlestick both had excellent posts involving Andres Torres this week. Chris at BCB wrote a great piece about Torres' unusually solid 2009 and his tendency to hit flyballs. Additionally, not only did Torres hit a lot of flyballs, but he also had a high BABIP, which might mean that his 2009 was more flukish than promising.

Nick at CDC had a post about the Giants' fifth outfielder spot, since he figured there would only be two outfielders to back up the (projected) starting lineup of Mark Derosa (LF), Aaron Rowand (CF) and Nate Schierholtz (RF). In CDC's opinion, Fred Lewis is one of the better options, but probably won't be given a chance and most likely will be traded because he's out of Minor League options. John Bowker most likely will start in Triple-A in his opinion (though he doesn't like it, and neither do I) because he still has a Minor League option. Same thing could happen to Eugenio Velez, though he might get the benefit of the doubt because of his speed. Torres seems to have a roster spot because of his defense and speed, though like Chris, Nick is not a fan of his bat either.

My take on all this. I agree with both BCB and CDC. One thing they didn't mention was Torres' suspect contact rate and him swinging at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone. In 2009, Torres had a contact rate of 72.3 percent (tied for second-worst of any position player with thirty or more plate appearances) and swung at 29.1 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. The fact that he had that good a season despite those numbers in those categories shows that he got very lucky last year, almost too lucky. Can he improve his plate approach? Yeah, but he's 31-years-old, not exactly an age where guys are "developing."

Madison Bumgarner's Drop in Velocity = Panic?

A lot of Giants fans are pretty worried about Bumgarner's drop in velocity. It's been the hot topic since his first start at the Major League level back in September. Both Grant at the McCovey Chronicles, and Obsessive Giants Compulsive have interesting takes on Bumgarner's status in 2010. MCC believes Bumgarner should start in Triple-A and is taking a cautious approach with his "potential", while OGC believes Bumgarner is ready and still is drinking the "Kool-Aid" as he likes to put it.

For some reason, I'm on the fence with this one. I originally was a big believer in Bumgarner back in January. However, I'm starting to believe that perhaps putting him in Fresno to start the year wouldn't be such a bad idea, just so he a.) doesn't get exposed too early and get his confidence kiboshed (e.g. what Kansas City did to Zach Greinke, though he turned it around the past couple years) and b.) gets properly developed and hones his mechanics and approach (if he is rushed to the Majors, he might not do that).

MadBum's 20-years-old and I like him a lot. I think he has great potential, even if he doesn't become the next Tim Lincecum (which I'm not banking on by the way). The Giants should treat him delicatley, and with Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez already anchoring the rotation, the Giants have no pressing need to have Bumgarner in the starting rotation so early.

Todd Wellemeyer a Shoe-In for the Fifth Spot?

MLB.com Giants beat writer Chris Haft wrote an interesting piece about Todd Wellemeyer and the instant impact he's making in Scottsdale this Spring. Basically, Haft suggest that Wellemeyer starting the year in the fifth spot in the rotation wouldn't be such a bad idea, and that it could be better for Bumgarner and the Giants overall in the long run. Furthermore, though Wellemeyer struggled last season, apparently, Wellemeyer insists he is closer to his 2008 form now than his form in 2009.

What do I think? I really wish we had another option other than Wellemeyer. (Seriously, if we could get the Yankees to cover a lot of his salary, I really would honestly take Kei Igawa for half-a-season; then again, because of my Filipino heritage, I always feel biased toward Asian players.) His 2009 season isn't impressive at all, and there is some debate out there on whether or not Wellemeyer can be a starting pitcher in the long-run (some feel he is more suited as a middle-reliever). However, when I wrote my post on MadBum, the competition at the time was Kevin Pucetas and Joe Martinez, two guys who are "Four-A Players" in my book (well...maybe not Pucetas, but definitely Martinez). Wellemeyer though is a better option than those two. And, since it will only be half-a-season probably, the Giants won't really need to bank on Wellemeyer lasting over the long haul.

As much as I hate to say it, if I have to choose between the two for the fifth spot, I might have to go with Wellemeyer (just because I don't want to screw up MadBum that much).

Bleacher Report Giants Writer on Hot Stove TV.

I frequently disagree with Andy Bensch on Bleacher Report. I think he loves Torres too much, doesn't like Lewis enough and goes back and forth when it comes to sticking with youngsters or signing veterans (though to be fair, I was like that too when I first started writing for Bleacher Report and this blog, but I feel I have honed my opinion and thoughts since my initial posts).

However, I like to support a fellow Giants writer when he is due and his appearance on Hot Stove.com TV is definitely "support-worthy." Is Hot Stove.com TV awesome listening that will replace Mike Francesa at WFAN and Chris "Mad Dog" Russo at Sirius? Probably not (though it certainly could give KNBR's hosts a run for their money).  However, considering I had my own podcast for a few months (until I deleted it due to monetary issues...no, that's a lie, I just didn't enjoy it after a while), I definitely appreciate amateur sports radio when I get the opportunity to listen. Bensch definitely does a solid job, and considering he's only a freshman in college (and a radio and broadcasting major to boot), I think the kid has a bright future in terms of sports radio or podcasting.

Lastly, Hat Tips!

Thanks to Paap Fly and McCovey Chronicles for posting Remember '51 on their blogroll. I definitely appreciate the shot outs, especially from McCovey Chronicles, one of my favorite Giants blogs, and one that I have been following for a couple of years.

Also, continued Hat Tip to MLB Fantasy Prospects.com, which gave a hat tip of their own to Remember '51. If you don't already know, MLBFP is a great place for prospect info and analysis. If you're a roto guy looking for prospects, MLBFP is the place to go to. Great stuff as always, Stephen.

Rowand Up, Torres Down in 2010? It Might Happen, Giants Fans

The popular sentiment of Giants fans these days seems to be this: bench Aaron Rowand, and replace him with Andres Torres, who is better suited to hit leadoff than Rowand, the Giants' current candidate.

Granted, I can't necessarily dimiss the idea. Torres is coming off a great year, and Rowand isn't. Rowand is a good defender, but statistically, Torres was better last year (Torres' had a 3.7 UZR in center field last season while Rowand sported a 1.3 UZR).

However, even though the stats from 2009 may favor more playing time for Torres and less for Rowand in center field, Giants fans shouldn't jump on the Torres bandwagon too quickly. While Torres may be a good player off the bench for the Giants roster in 2010 (especially considering he's might be of one of the better baserunners on the 40-man roster along with Eugenio Velez and Emmanuel Burriss), it is highly unlikely that he will duplicate the numbers that he posted in 2009. Additionally, while Rowand didn't exactly set the world on fire in 2009, there is a strong chance Rowand is due to improve in 2010.

Here are a few cases for my thought that Rowand should be the main man in center field over Torres for the Giants:

1. Torres most likely won't repeat his power numbers, while Rowand is more prone to stay around the same, perhaps even improve.

Here are Torres' power stats in 2009: six doubles, eight triples, six home runs, .533 slugging percentage, .876 OPS, .263 ISO, 12.5 percent HR/FB ratio.

Those really are incredible numbers, almost TOO incredible to be perfectly frank considering Torres' history.

In his Minor and Major League career, Torres only hit more than six home runs once (11 in 2008 with the Iowa Cubs, the Chicago Cubs' Triple-A affiliate). Granted, Torres has always had solid slugging and OPS numbers in the minors, but that may be more caused by his speed rather than natural power. From 2006-2008, in four Minor League stints (one Triple-A stint with the Minnesota Twins in 2006, a Double-A stint with the Detroit Tigers in 2007, a Triple-A stint with the Tigers in 2007, and a Triple-A stint with the Cubs in 2008), he accumulated 39 triples.

39! That's some absolute speed on the basepaths folks!

Yet here's a huge red flag when it comes to Torres repeating his 2009 numbers in 2010: the .263 ISO. Torres is not a .263 ISO hitter. The only other time he cracked the .200 mark was in 2007 with the Tigers' Triple-A team where he posted a .214 ISO. As far as his ISO in the majors, it isn't even close. The second-highest ISO he posted in the Majors was .077 in 2003 with the Tigers. (e.g. Walt Weiss territory.)

Another red-flag for Torres is his HR/FB ratio, which was an astounding 12.5 percent, third best on the team in 2009 (behind only Pablo Sandoval and Juan Uribe). His HR/FB numbers were nowhere close to that in his four seasons in the Majors prior to 2009. The second-highest HR/FB ratio for Torres? 3.1 percent in 2003 with Detroit. (He had a zero percent HR/FB ratio in 2002, 2004 and 2005, but he only played a combined 30 games during those three seasons.)

(Note: I could not find batted ball statistics for Minor Leaguers, so that's why I omit them here).

As for Rowand, 2009 was a little more typical for him in terms of power numbers in comparison to 2008. He posted a .419 and a .158 ISO, not to mention a 10.3 percent HR/FB ratio. Granted, those statistics aren't great by any measure, but they are least consistent with what we expect from Rowand. In his nine Major League seasons, he has only posted an OPS under .420 four times. (Although two of the four times were with the Giants...ouch!) Furthermore, Rowand has a career ISO average of .168 (in comparison to Torres who has a .139 ISO) and a career HR/FB ratio of 12.2 percent (in comparison to Torres who has a 7.1 percent HR/FB ratio).

One thing I think that could bode in Rowand's favor in 2010 was his dip in Line Drive percentage in 2009.  Rowand averages 19.7 percent in career line drive percentage. In 2009, that number dipped to 16 percent, the lowest percent of his Major League career. That total was probably affected by his increase in FB percentage (38.9 percent) and Infield Fly Ball percentage (13 percent, his highest percentage since 2005).

I don't think Rowand has a 16 percent line drive percentage in 2010, especially with a better hitting coach aboard in Hensley Meulens (Let's face it, Carney Lansford and his overly intense, counter-productive behavior probably wasn't helping him). If Rowand puts up better line drive numbers, chances are his power numbers will correspond as well.

2. Rowand is better at making contact than Torres.

Blasphemous. Or at least that's what Torres fans are saying. "Rowand can't hit the broad side of a barn!" is probably the most common phrase shouted at Rowand, but you know what? The stats say Rowand makes better contact at the plate.

In 2009, Torres posted a contact rate of 72.3 percent. Also, he made contact on 46.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone and 84.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone.

Rowand? He posted a 74.8 percent contact rate, making 51.9 percent contact rate outside the strike zone and 85.2 percent contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone.

That is a big and surprising difference, especially considering the fact Rowand has earned a reputation of swinging and missing early and often (then again, his 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 0.24 BB/K ratio certainly didn't sway many Giants fans to believe otherwise). Yet according to the numbers, Torres may not be that much better a hitter as many Giants fans would like to believe. If given regular playing time, his stats most likely would look pedestrian to the point where they would be comparable, if not worse than Rowand's.

3. Torres' high BABIP doesn't bode well for 2010.

Torres posted a .347 BABIP in 2009, third-best on the team of hitters with 20 or more plate appearances behind Pablo Sandoval and Fred Lewis. Now, BABIP numbers aren't a bad thing. For the most part, groundball hitters have very high BABIP numbers, and Torres is a groundball hitter, so...

Stop right there! Torres was NOT a groundball hitter in 2009. He posted a 0.69 GB/FB ratio in 2009 along with a 49.5 percent flyball percentage. Rowand in comparison had a 1.16 GB/FB ratio and a 38.9 percent flyball percentage. So, if anything, Rowand is more of a groundball hitter than Torres, and Giants fans know that Rowand doesn't have the speed to be that kind of a hitter.

Torres does have the speed to be that kind of a player, but for whatever reason, he wasn't able to do so in 2009 and hit more flyballs than groundballs (15.5 percent more to be exact). Was last year an aberration for Torres? It could be. In 2002, 2003 and 2005 at the Major League level (again, no Minor League batted ball stats), Torres didn't have a GB/FB ratio below 1.81. That being said, his last stint in the Majors was 2005, and it is obvious by his power numbers in the Minors that he seems to be more inclined to try and hit for power and swing for the fences rather than just make contact.

If Torres continues that approach, chances are he won't have a BABIP as high as .347 at the Major League level again. Sooner or later, his luck will run out and his BABIP will hover around the league average of .299, which will make his stats look a lot more pedestrian than numbers he put up in 2009.

As for Rowand, he hovered around the league average in BABIP (.318) last season. If he can catch some breaks and get that BABIP to rise (which will if he can improve that line drive percentage like I said before), then Rowand's stats will look a lot better than in 2009.


The bottom line? I know Rowand makes more money and chances are, because of his contract and "gamer" status (which isn't a bad thing by the way), he will probably start in center field on Opening Day. That being said, Torres will be a very interesting player to watch in 2010. There is a good chance he could prove me wrong and continue to put the heat on manager Bruce Bochy to play him more. If he can utilize his speed better, he certainly will be hard to keep out of the lineup, especially if Rowand struggles.

However, if Torres regresses dramatically and posts lower numbers at the plate from a year ago, well...don't say I didn't warn you.

On the Fringe: Where Do Five San Francisco Giants Players Stand?

From Bleacher Report

With new additions Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa signed, and Freddy Sanchez and Juan Uribe re-signed this offseason by San Francisco Giants General Manager Brian Sabean, the Giants seem to be a brand new team offensively going into next year.

Granted, while these signings seem to blend into Sabean's unending trend of signing veterans that are perhaps on the decline of their careers, on paper, the acquisitions done by Sabean and his management team have to be considered an improvement (I guess).

That being said, these latest moves make things very interesting come this Spring Training for five players who will be on the fringe of making the 25-man roster, perhaps even the 40-man roster: Eugenio Velez, Fred Lewis, John Bowker, Travis Ishikawa and Andres Torres.

Case No. 1: Eugenio Velez. Position: LF, UTL

Eugenio Velez had a solid start after his call-up in late July. However, after being moved permanently to the leadoff position, and seeing playing time everyday, he effectively cooled off and put up rather mediocre stats.

Last season, Velez finished with five home runs, a .267 batting average, and a .708 OPS. While Velez did have 11 stolen bases, he was caught five times, not a good percentage for a base-stealer.

According to Velez's Bill James and CHONE projections for next season, the lanky 27-year-old from the Dominican Republic, most likely will not improve much upon his numbers from a season ago.

CHONE only projects a four point improvement in his OPS, and Bill James actually believes his OPS will drop seven points. And this is also considering that Velez's OPS is pretty awful to being with, especially for a guy expected to bat leadoff.

The only shining grace? Velez is expected to improve his BB/K ratio in both projections. In Bill James, he is expected to improve by 10 points, while he is expected to improve by five points according CHONE. Granted, at 0.29 last year, Velez really has nowhere to go but up.

As far as Velez's future with the Giants? It doesn't look good. DeRosa made things bad, but Huff makes things almost impossible for Velez to continue his playing career in San Francisco.

Prediction: If he has a great (and key word: GREAT) Spring Training, then maybe he could make the roster. However, unless DeRosa gets hurt or Huff falls off the face of the earth, Velez most likely will be gone by May at the latest.

Case No. 2: Fred Lewis. Position: LF

Fred Lewis' future was already in heavy doubt last season, when Nate Schierholtz's surprisingly good offensive numbers in May put him on the bench. Furthermore, he lost even more ground when Velez put up his hot streak in late July and early August.

That being said, Lewis seems to be one of their best outfield options mainly for one reason: his OBP.

The Giants ranked last in OBP last year, and according to Jack Moore of Fangraphs, Lewis may be the Giants' best option when it comes to offense. Lewis had a .348 OBP last year, and according to Bill James and CHONE projections, he is expected to put up a .351 and .344 OBP, respectively.

Couple that with increases in his stolen bases (BJ projects him to steal 13 bases, CHONE projects 11, both projections up from the eight he had last year) and home runs (BJ and CHONE have him at seven and eight, respectively) and Lewis seems to be an enticing option.

However, the Huff signing definitely seems to put a wrench in Lewis' future. With Huff most likely playing first base (unless Bud Selig decides to add the DH in the National League), DeRosa probably will get bumped into left field.

That leaves a unique backup situation in Left Field among Lewis, Velez, John Bowker and Andres Torres. Bowker most likely will go to Triple-A to start the season, and Torres may be better utilized in Center as a backup to Rowand. Thus, the battle is between Velez and Lewis.

If you go by last year, Velez probably will gain more favor by some fans because of his spectacular couple of weeks when he was on fire. That being said, if you are a more knowledgeable fan, Lewis should be the go-to guy because of his consistency.

He wasn't awful, but he wasn't fantastic by any measure. The main question is which aspect is manager Bruce Bochy more impressed with: Velez's brief, spectacular play? Or Lewis' slightly above average consistency?

Prediction: Lewis most likely will get the boot unless he has a great Spring Training. Unlike Velez, there probably is actually a decent market for Lewis (because of his plate patience and decent speed), and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Giants get some return on Lewis by or right before the end of Spring Training.

Whatever happens, seeing Lewis in a Giants uniform by Opening Day isn't a strong possibility.

Case No. 3: John Bowker. Position: OF, 1B

Bowker is coming off a pretty lousy stint last season at the Major League level. He hit .194, posted a .620 OPS and a 0.22 BB/K ratio in 31 games last year with the Giants. However, Bowker is coming off an impressive campaign in Fresno last season where he hit .342, with 21 home runs, and posted a 1.047 OPS and 1.16 BB/K ratio. Basically. Bowker was the best player in the Giants Triple-A team, and he did this all in 104 games as well.

Therefore, that begs Giants fans to ask this question: is Bowker another Todd Linden, a guy who can hit 30 home runs in Triple-A, but do jack at the Major League level? Or is he a player that just needs the right opportunity to show what he can do?

Bowker has shown some success with the Giants. In 2008, he got off to a hot start and hit 10 home runs in a 111 games. That being said, he has really struggled in terms of plate patience. While his BB/K numbers were incredible last year in Fresno, they still were mediocre in 2008 at 0.26.

There is no question Bowker has some pop with the bat. In addition, there is no question that Bowker really doesn't have much else to prove at the Minor League level. However, the question is will he get a shot next year? Or will he continue to only be able to knock Triple-A pitching out of the park. He can play all three outfield positions (though left is really his only position), not to mention first base, but with all those positions already filled to the brim, Bowker might not get the opportunity unless somebody get injured.

Prediction: Bowker could get a shot, but only if somebody ahead of him such as Huff or Derosa fails miserably first. At that point, the season will be already lost, so who knows what could happen to Bowker.

Case No. 4: Travis Ishikawa. Position: 1B

Ishikawa is screwed. Plain and simple. With the Derosa signing, there was already widespread thought that Pablo Sandoval was going to move to first base to allow room for Derosa to play third. Now with Huff on the team, Sandoval will not only play third, but he most likely will play backup at first when Huff needs a spell.

The only role it seems Ishikawa will have on the Giants will be in terms of a defensive replacement. That is quite a shame considering the progress Ishikawa made as a Giant last year.

Last year, despite a putrid start and awful road numbers, he put up nine home runs, and a .715 OPS in 120 games last year in San Francisco. And if that isn't enough, his projections are pretty generous. Bill James projects him to hit 13 home runs, drive in 56 RBI, post a .772 RBI and improve his BB/K ratio to 0.44 (10 points). CHONE projects similar home run numbers (13) and RBI totals (50) and also projects him to make a massive jump in his OPS (.762), though not so much in terms of his BB/K ratio (only 0.35, a one point improvement).

I know Ishikawa is going to be a high strikeout guy. And, though he improved throughout the course of his year, he probably won't ever be a high walk guy either. That being said, Ishikawa's power most likely will improve (mainly because he can't put up putrid road numbers again like he did last year) and you can't really put up a true number of how valuable he is defensively.

Too bad Bochy doesn't know that.

Prediction: Huff's signing almost guarantees Ishikawa starting out in Triple-A Fresno. Only if Huff and Derosa falter simultaneously will Ishikawa get a serious shot at the starting job in 2010, and that probably won't come until mid-season. I mean, Bochy hit Molina in the cleanup despite his sub. 300 OBP.

Case No. 5: Andres Torres. Position: OF

Torres was an incredible surprise last year for the Giants. Despite not playing at the Major League level since 2005, Torres put up a .876 OPS, and stole six bases (and only got caught once). Furthermore, he hit .270 and six home runs in only 75 games, and a 170 plate appearances. This was a guy that had only one career home run at the Major League level prior to 2009.

So, it's safe to say, 2009 was a bit of a breakout season for the tiny, speedy Torres.

However, the question is whether or not he can do it again?

So far, the projections aren't optimistic that he will be able to build on his surprising 2009 season. First off, he's not exactly young (he'll be 32 next season) and he has such a small sample at the Major League level prior to 2009. Bill James predicts that he will have drops in batting average, OBP, and OPS (from. 270 to .264, .343 to .330, and .876 to .731, respectively). CHONE is even more pessimistic. They expect a 22 point dip in average (to .248), a 163 point drop in OPS (.713) and nearly double the amount of strikeouts (from 45 to 87).

The only optimistic stats concerning Torres projections? Similar home run numbers from a year ago (both BJ and CHONE project him to hit six home runs) and an increase in his BB/K ratio (from 0.36 in 2009 to 0.39 and 0.37 in 2010 according to BJ and CHONE respectively).

Granted, the offense may not be Torres most endearing quality. Torres is an incredible defender that was made to cover the sparse outfield at AT&T Park. Furthermore, with six stolen bases and getting caught only once, Torres is not only a speedy base stealer, but he's an efficient one to boot, a quality that makes him a more enticing commodity than Velez, who isn't nearly as efficient.

Prediction: With an ability to play left and center, and with Aaron Rowand on thin ice after an atrocious year last season, Torres is a safe bet to make the squad in 2010. At the very least, he will fill a Dave Roberts "ala 2004 with the Boston Red Sox" role where he will be used as a late inning defensive reserve and pinch hitter for the Giants.