A Look at Fred Lewis' Transformation as a Hitter in Toronto

The Blue Jays and Giants start a three game series tomorrow and I admit, I'm excited for it. I've been excited about it since April 15th:

Why? Because April 15th was the day the Giants traded a solid outfielder named Fred Lewis for $75,000 dollars.

Yep...a player with a career 4.5 WAR for chump change.

In many ways, I have gotten over it. Andres Torres has helped me get over it. Aubrey Huff has helped me get over it. Buster Posey's hot debut helped me get over it. John Bowker helped me find a new "he's getting hosed!" guy to support. (And he's from Sacramento, so that's a double-plus!)

That hasn't meant though I've completely forgotten about Fred. I've kept close tabs on him. I added him on my fantasy team for sentimental purposes. Heck, I even added a Blue Jays blogroll and adopted the Jays as my "Second Favorite team for the 2010 Season."

And, after watching Lewis this year...well...I'm surprised.

I'm not surprised that he's done well. He's always had the potential. I'm not surprised that Jays fans have taken a liking to him. He was always a class act.

I'm surprised by his dramatic change as a hitter.

Believe it Giants fans. Lewis is far from the same hitter he was in San Francisco. In fact, he's been the complete opposite of his usual self so far this 2010 season.

The numbers prove it.

The report on Lewis in San Francisco was this: he's going to strike out A LOT, but he has good speed and he's patient.

In the minors, Lewis had a career .383 OBP in 599 games. With the Giants, he had an OBP of .355 over three seasons. Furthermore, his other plate discipline numbers in his three seasons with the Giants prove the point that he was a very picky when it came to his approach.

In 2007, he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.59, had a swing percentage of 42 percent and an O-Swing percentage (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) of 21.2. In 2008, his BB/K ratio fell to 0.41 and his swing percentage rose to 43 percent, but his O-Swing percentage fell to 18.9 percent. Last year, he improved his BB/K ratio to 0.43, though his swing percentage rose to 44.4 percent and his O-swing percentage jumped to 19.4 percent.

It made sense though why Lewis was patient. He struck out a lot (his K percentage was 20.4, 26.5 and 28.5 percent from 2007-2009, respectively) and he didn't necessarily make contact as often as you would like (his contact percentage decreased from 84.3 percent in 2007 to 80 percent in 2008 to  77.6 percent). That being said, Lewis offered a skill set that a lot of Giants hitters didn't have at the time: he didn't give away strikes and he got on base. That was something the Giants certainly weren't seeing from other outfielders like Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn.

Since the trade to Toronto though, Lewis numbers look a little funny. His slash line is .291/.333/.814, and his plate discipline numbers look even more peculiar.

His O-swing percentage this year is 30 percent, a career high, and the first time in his Major League career when it's been above the league average. His swing percentage is 49.4 percent, the highest percentage since his rookie year in 2006 when it was 50 percent.

But you know what? It hasn't hurt him. Yes, Lewis is drawing less walks (his BB percentage is only 5.8 percent, almost five points lower than last year), still striking out a lot (27.7 percent exactly) and his BB/K ratio (0.23) and OBP aren't as comforting as they were in his Giants days. Yet Lewis is producing. His wOBA is .351. His wRC+ is 110. He has already matched his doubles total from last year (21) in 113 less plate appearances. His ISO at .189 is a career high by 31 points.

Lewis changed from a "patient, speedy hitter with not much power who strikes out a lot" in San Francisco to a "free swinging, speedy hitter with a little power who strikes out a lot" in Toronto. It's funny because Lewis was the kind of hitter that frustrated a lot of Giants fans for not being aggressive enough. Now, as a Blue Jay, he is ALMOST TOO aggressive. You wonder as a baseball fan if all that time he spent with Juan Uribe last year rubbed off on him at the plate when he migrated to Canada.

Now, Lewis isn't perfect. He has a minus-13.7 UZR/150 in the outfield this year with the Jays, which pretty much confirms to all the "Lewis Bashers" how bad a defensive player he is (his UZR in 2009 was 2.0). Do I think he's that bad? No, but his UZR/150 numbers two of the past three season have been negative, so the argument that he may be a GOOD defensive player may be invalid. At the very least he's average, or just slightly below and I think this year probably confirms that.

Despite his dropoff defensively, you have to feel happy for Lewis and the Blue Jays. Lewis has found playing time, and the Jays got a good player for peanuts. Maybe that's why Lewis is more aggressive now as a hitter with the Jays than his days with the Giants. Maybe he feels more relaxed. Maybe he knows manager Cito Gaston won't pull him out at the first sign of failure like Bruce Bochy would. Maybe he feels happier knowing that Blue Jays fans won't hound him every time he goes after a ball in the outfield like Giants fans did during the latter days of his career. Maybe he is more confident in Toronto because he's succeeding Jeremy Reed (who sucks) and not Barry Bonds (who is a legend).

Whatever the reason is, this is simple: Lewis, the Blue Jay, isn't the same Lewis we Giants fans knew and you know what? It's a good thing. It's nice to see a guy find a home, and it's nice to know that the Giants organization can develop good players (even if we may not play them as much as we probably should).

It will definitely be fun watching this Jays-Giants series the next three days. I can only offer Jays fans two things before the games start tomorrow:

1.) There are still some Giants fans that wish Fred was still a Giant and Eugenio Velez was still a Jay (sorry...it couldn't be helped).
2.) Sorry Jeremy Accardo, Merkin Valdez and Brian Bocock didn't turn out as well.

"Around the Candlestick": New Blog Additions, LALA Land, Dave Roberts, Lewis and Jays Update

It's been a while since I have done one of these, so I figure it's time. Two quick points before I start this edition of "Around the Candlestick":

1.) Interested to see how this road trip will go (I am always nervous when we play the Marlins).

2.) Disappointing that the Cleveland Cavs might actually lose in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Celtics could have pulled out game one and they annihilated in game two, and that was in Cleveland. LeBron (who is my favorite NBA player) may just be one of those players who might be jinxed in terms of winning a title (e.g. John Stockton, Karl Malone, Baron Davis...okay not Baron).


New Additions to the Giants Blogroll

There are some new faces to the Blogroll here at Remember '51. Crazy Crabbers, Grizzlies-Baseball, 22 Gigantes, Keith's Sports Journal, Bay Area Sports Guy and Golden Gate Giants are all new arrivals to the blogroll since the last edition of Around the Candlestick. Must say, they are all impressive blogs. Definitely check them out if you're looking for more Giants news and commentary.


Dodgerhater in Los Angeles and at Dodger Stadium


The Dodgerhater (run by Dan Pera) recently was in LA and visited Chavez Ravine. It's safe to say that he didn't enjoy his trip very much. He provides a good little diary of a Dodger game he went to and how the Dodgers and their fans (whom I don't like even more after this...I mean, c'mon! How many times do you catch a game ball?) tested his patience every step of the way. If you aren't familiar with the Dodgerhater blog and his feelings about the Bums, well...let's just say there's about as much love between them as Tito Ortiz and Jenna Jameson.

Good stuff, as always, from the Dodgerhater blog.


Dave Roberts Diagnosed With Lymphoma

I know on this blog I can be hard on guys. I criticize management (Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy) and players (Eugenio Velez and Aaron Rowand) all the time. That being said, despite my avid biases of players and people within the Giants organization, I am human.

Roberts may not have turned out well as a Giant. He unfortunately was given too big of a contract and he was simply near the end of the road in his career to produce much. It simply proved to be an unfortunate match of Roberts and the Giants, and one in a long line of Sabean's "not so great moves" as general manager.

However, Roberts definitely deserves some thoughts and support as he goes through treatment of Hodgkin's lymphoma. Despite never really panning out on the field, Roberts was a class act off of it and he deserves nothing but positive hope right now from Giants nation.


Fred Lewis and Blue Jays Update

If you haven't checked out the Blue Jays blogroll on the Remember '51 page, definitely do so. It may not be the Giants, but the Jays blogs really are pretty cool to check out. My personal favorite is 1 Blue Jays Way, which was one of the first Blue Jays blogs I started to follow, pre-Fred Lewis trade/giveaway.

Speaking of Fred, how's he doing so far as a Jay? Well, not awesome, but he's starting to turn it around and he's getting consistent playing time, which is something you can't say he'd be getting this season in San Francisco.

Lewis' statline after 15 games: .232 batting average, .290 OBP, nine runs scored, five RBI, and three stolen bases. Lewis has struck out a lot (17 K's) and he hasn't backed it up with a lot of walks either (0.24 BB/K ratio), but the last few games, it seems as if he has really gotten comfortable at the plate. Already in today's game against the Indians, he has a hit, a walk and scored the Jays' first run in two at-bats.

It makes you, as a Giants fan, really wonder. The Jays are 14-13, and need every little bit to compete in the AL East. And yet, they hit Lewis leadoff (something Giants fans said he couldn't do) and manager Cito Gaston seems to be patient in terms of giving Lewis (and others like Travis Snider and Jose Bautista) a chance.

I know Jays fans may hate me saying this, but I would rather have Gaston managing ball games than Bochy. If Bochy was managing the Jays, Lewis and Snider would have been buried already for free agent Eric Byrnes. (Because...as we know...Byrnes is a "gamer" and a "veteran.")

Fred Lewis to Toronto: Why Giants Fans Should Adopt the Blue Jays

It's not official, but it's darn near close. Fred Lewis is going to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later or cash. I speculated the deal was going to happen soon in a post yesterday, so I am not surprised. It is an unfortunate end for a under-appreciated player.

What can I say about Lewis now that he is a (pending) Blue Jay? I hope he breaks out. And I not only hope he breaks out, I hope he breaks out as a leadoff man (as some Blue Jays fans are envisioning). I hope he continues to post solid defensive numbers in the outfield despite drunk bleacher bums, and 50-plus year-old men who just found out about blogs two weeks ago, thinking otherwise. I hope he continues to keep the Jays as contenders in the AL East, and performs well with relief pitcher Merkin Valdez, another Giants castoff (I'm not holding out any hope for Brian Bocock though; Bocock is terrible).

I want Lewis to prove his doubters wrong. In all honesty, I was once a doubter, but I looked more into his profile and I realized he was better than I thought. More Giants fans could have done the same and made this departure easier for Lewis, but they didn't because a.) they are too lazy to look at advanced defensive statistics (e.g. UZR) or b.) they valued other players at his position too highly for stupid reasons (Aaron Rowand because he's a "gamer"; Eugenio Velez because "Jon Miller liked him in 2008 Spring Training"; Andres Torres because he's "got mental fortitude"; Nate Schierholtz because "He is crazy good defensively, and just needs more at-bats").

(In regard to those reasons: Rowand is just as bad as Lewis when it comes to jumps and reads, he just dives to make up for it; Velez is overrated and doesn't do anything particularly well; Torres was a fluke in 2009 and all his advanced numbers show that he actually was WORSE than Lewis offensively in many ways, especially when it came to striking out; and while Schierholtz is good defensively, he hacks at too much scrap and doesn't hit with enough power to make up for it.)

I hate that it had to turn out this way for Lewis. He deserved better than this. He deserved a little slack in 2009 after a great 2008 season (.282 average, .351 OBP, .348 wOBA, 8.4 wRAA, 21 SB), but unfortunately Schierholtz's hot stretch in June and Velez's hot July seemed to put him in the doghouse quickly, not only with Giants management, but with Giants fans and newspaper writers (especially Henry Schulman, who writes as if he had an agenda against Lewis and sabermetrics in general...though OBP is not technically a sabermetrics stat at the core, for it's pretty basic to calculate).

So, what does Toronto get? They get a good outfielder who will be a great answer to their leadoff problems (Seriously, Jose Bautista batting leadoff isn't getting you to the playoffs). Lewis is an upgrade at the moment over Travis Snider and Bautista in my mind, and I feel with the new environment, and also less pressure, Lewis can contribute immediately to this Blue Jays team.

Yet Toronto does not just get a good player today.

They should also get the support of Giants nation.

Yes, I am saying it right here: I am adopting the Toronto Blue Jays as a team to root for in 2010, and other Giants fans should do the same.

Now, as you know (if you have been following this blog), I don't say that with ease. I am stern in my commitment to teams in sports. For the most part, I only consider myself to be a fan of one team in each major sport (the 49ers in the NFL; Golden State Warriors in the NBA; San Jose "We Can't Win A Playoff Series" Sharks in the NHL; California Golden Bears in college football; Gonzaga Bulldogs in college basketball) and while I may "like" other teams, I won't ever consider myself to be a "fan" of them.

This is an exception, though it is only temporary for this season (it is subject to renewal).

Why do I think Giants fans should be fans of the Blue Jays? First off, the Lewis trade. Lewis deserves to be a Giant, but Brian Sabean and Schulman screwed it all up and he isn't. So, since he isn't in the black and orange, Giants fans should cheer for the team he currently plays for. What is that team? The Blue Jays. (Easy enough, right?)

Second, the Blue Jays are a classic of example of what should have happened as an organization if Sabean was not brought back. Alex Anthopolous really is a general manager with a ton of potential. He's young, he believes in his young talent, and when he makes deals, he usually has made smart, deals for younger, "still have something left in them and playing with a chip on their shoulder" players (i.e. Lewis and Valdez have good potential still and they came practically free; Aubrey Huff and Mark Derosa cost nine million dollars this year and who knows how much upside they have). Anthopolous is the kind of general manager the Giants should have pursued this off-season. Instead, they settled for the same old, same old for at least another couple of years.

Third, the Jays are a fun team to watch surprisingly (not easy to say because they are "Canada's Team"). Since getting rid of Alexis Rios (who apparently should have been traded to San Francisco for Tim Lincecum), the Jays seem to have a different energy. They have a lot of good arms in their rotation (Ricky Romero is a cross between Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez) and they have a lot of those "under-the-radar, but quality" players who broke out last year like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. To make matters better, they have a lot of good talent coming up, like Brett Wallace (who tore it up in Sacramento last year) and Kyle Drabek (who was acquired from Philly in the Roy Halladay deal).

Lastly, the Jays have four former Giants in their organization (Lewis, Valdez, Bocock, and Jeremy Accardo, who was traded to Toronto for one, short-lived "A.J. Pierzynski-esque" season of Shea Hillenbrand). They're practically the SF Giants-Canada!

My only problem with the Jays? I don't really like manager Cito Gaston. He seems to be the "old-school to a fault" kind of manager that Bruce Bochy is. Granted, he is an upgrade over previous manager John Gibbons (who couldn't stop fighting with his players), but from what I read in the Jays blogosphere, the Jays might be better off hiring somebody new in the off-season. Considering the new organizational philosophy under Anthopolous, Gaston just doesn't seem to be a fit.

Weigh the positives against the negatives and the answer is pretty simple: Giants fans should also be Jays fans in 2010, but shouldn't cheer for the Jays more than the Giants. Sound simple? No? It will get more simple in time once you continue to pay attention to Lewis and the Jays this season.

What Will Happen to Fred Lewis? (And How Will the Giants Be Affected?)

Fred Lewis' stint on the Disabled List and rehab assignment in Fresno is shortly coming to an end. By this weekend, three things will happen to Lewis:

A.) He will be traded to another Major League ballclub (the Blue Jays, Padres and Athletics have been rumored destinations, with Toronto the most likely destination).

B.) He will be designated for assignment (e.g. waived).

C.) He will remain on the Giants roster, and either John Bowker will get sent down to Fresno or Eugenio Velez, Travis Ishikawa or Andres Torres will get designated for assignment.

While a lot of Giants and baseball fans still keep hope that the Giants management will come to their senses and keep Lewis on the roster, the last option seems very, very unlikely. Lewis' down season in 2009 and his "bad" defense according to baseball fans and writers' "eyes" (despite UZR showing that Lewis is an above-average defender) have just burned too many bridges for Lewis to stay in San Francisco.

It's a shame, really. As a Giants fan, you wish the general manager didn't stack the outfield with so many similar (albeit mediocre-to-above-average) pieces. You wish beat writers like Hank Schulman didn't have so much influence and weren't so ignorant to baseball statistics (seriously, his crusade against OBP is an argument that was made six-seven years ago) on Giants fans.

But like I said, it is what it is. (The worst part is that Schulman's "I'm old-school! I judge baseball by my eyes! OBP isn't a valid stat!" is seeping into our online communities.)

So, basically it comes down to A or B.

In my opinion, it's going to be A.

First off, I know Lewis doesn't have a lot of trade value, thus, many Giants fans will say "Who is going to want him? Nobody will trade for him at this point!"

Yet I point to Merkin Valdez as a key example of why designating guys for assignment can be tough, and should be avoided if necessary (though they did get lucky with Jesus Guzman).

Sure, Valdez did not have a good year last year. However, a pitcher that averages 95.5 MPH on his fastball isn't exactly easy to find, especially on the waiver wire. The Blue Jays realized this, played hard ball with the Giants so the Giants wouldn't think Valdez had any value for a trade, and swooped him up for practically nothing once Brian Sabean designated Valdez for assignment.

I guarantee you Sabean doesn't want to get burned like he did with Valdez again. And considering the Blue Jays and their fans are showing strong interest in Lewis, Sabean most likely will exhaust all his options before designating Lewis for assignment (and really, really exhaust them, even if it produces a "Kevin Frandsen to Boston").

With option B out of the way, that leaves us with A. Which team is going to trade with the Giants, and what are the Giants going to get back in return?

As of now, Toronto seems like the most logical choice. The Padres have a crowded outfield chock-full with young talent such as Tony Gwynn, Jr., Kyle Blanks and Will Venable, so Lewis doesn't seem to fit down in southern California (and I can't see Sabean trading within the division either). The Athletics have a similar situation. Though they have benefited in the past from the Giants' DFA transactions (e.g. Rajai Davis), there just isn't a place in Oakland's organizations for Lewis amongst Coco Crisp, Davis, Michael Taylor, Eric Patterson and Ryan Sweeney.

As for Toronto? In addition to new general manager Alex Anthopoulos' recent history of acquiring Giants (he also picked up Brian Bocock in addition to Valdez this off-season), the Blue Jays seem to be a solid fit for Lewis. Currently, the starting outfield consists of Travis Snider in left field, Vernon Wells in center field and Jose Bautista in right field.

Wells seems to be a mainstay due to his contract and "star" status. Snider and Bautista however, are on shakier ground.

Bautista seems to be a stellar player, though he is a bit of a journeyman and older (he'll be 30 in October). While his batting average wasn't great in 2009 (.235 last year), he posted a solid BB/K ratio (0.66) and has the ability to hit between 10-15 home runs in a season (he has hit 28 COMBINED the past two seasons). Additionally, Bautista was stellar defensively, as evidenced by his 5.1 UZR in right field last year.

Snider on the other hand, hasn't been quite as impressive. Lewis is actually an upgrade over him in almost every category. He strikes out less than Snider (28.5 percent strikeout rate to Snider's 32.4 in 2009), has a better BB/K ratio (0.43 to Snider's 0.37 in 2009), steals more bases (29 combined SB for Lewis the last two years, one total for Snider in his Major League career) and their wOBA numbers were identical in 2009 (.327).

Sure, Sinder is younger (22), so you have to cut him some slack. Yet with only Adam Lind (who's primarily the Blue Jays' designated hitter) and Jeremy Reed as the team's other outfielders at the moment, having Lewis as a platoon outfielder probably would be in the Blue Jays' best interests. He would have a lot of impact on the lineup, and he wouldn't cost the Jays too much in return.

Yet the main question  Giants fans (as this is a Giants blog after all) have to wonder is this: what will the Giants receive in return should Sabean trade Lewis to Toronto?

The Blue Jays' organization isn't great (they were ranked 26th in Fangraphs' organizational rankings going into this season; though the Giants weren't much better at 23), but they do have some interesting talent in the minors.

While the big names such as Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek won't be touched, they have promising infielders who could be dealt in Brad Emaus and Kevin Ahrens (Emaus is coming off a solid season in Double-A, while Ahrens is coming off a poor season in high Single-A). The Jays do have a lot of assets in terms of pitching such as David Purcey and Robert Ray (and Jason Frasor would be an interesting pickup considering he just lost the closer's position to Kevin Gregg this week), but pitching doesn't really seem to be a need for the Giants now, be it in the starting rotation or bullpen.

It will be very interesting see what the Giants will do/get with Lewis. When you look at his WAR converted to dollars the past two years ($11 million in 2008; $5.1 million in 2009), you would think Lewis would generate a lot of return in a trade. But alas, the deadline on Lewis' future in San Francisco is getting closer, and for some reasons, it seems as if Lewis will be going to the Jays for scraps or designated for assignment, most likely getting picked up by Toronto the second he hits the waiver wire.

It's going sting when Lewis leaves. Lewis should leave to better memories than bleacher bums yelling at him all the time for no reason at AT&T Park, and 50-year-old men (or 24-year-old frat boys) on blogs or message boards writing "HE STRIKES OUT LOOKING ALL THE TIME!" (In caps lock, no less.)

All I hope for Lewis now is that he can have a good career, and that the Giants at least get SOMETHING worthwhile out of his leaving.