The Writing Is On the Wall for Eugenio Velez

Two days after getting re-called to the Giants when Mark Derosa headed to the Disabled List, Eugenio Velez is heading back to Fresno after the Giants activated Freddy Sanchez for today's game against the Diamondbacks.

The move is both surprising and predictable. While Velez still has an option left for the Giants (which makes it easier for the Giants to send him up and down between Triple-A and the Majors), so did other guys like Ryan Rohlinger and Matt Downs. Some Giants fans figured with Velez's ability to play multiple positions, and the Giants' injury woes with Edgar Renteria and Derosa, Velez might be given a chance to redeem himself after a slow start to the 2010 season.

(Note: Here is an explanation of how Minor League options work on River Avenue Blues, a NY Yankees blog. Basically options work in years, and if you have an option year, you can be sent up and down as much as possible as long as you have that option year. There isn't a "set" number of options in a given year.)

That doesn't seem to be the case. After Velez got demoted, manager Bruce Bochy said this about Downs, who is currently hitting .269 with a home run and six RBI:

"We'll have Downsie take some ground balls at third," Bochy said. "He'll take some fly balls in the outfield. We'll move him around. The way he's swinging we'll use him as a right-handed pinch-hitter coming off the bench."

Two thoughts come to mind after hearing Bochy's quote:

1.) Bochy really likes to add "ey or ie" to guys' last names. (e.g. Whitey, Downsie, Rowsie...okay, I made the last one up.)

2.) Downs is the third guy Bochy has talked about moving to the outfield.

In the beginning of the year it was Travis Ishikawa. A few days ago it was Aubrey Huff. Now, it's Downs.

It makes you wonder: "Does Bochy even realize he still has Velez on the 40-man roster?"

My answer to that: yes, but he no longer has confidence in playing him anymore.

Guys with futures on Major League teams don't get called up and demoted again in less than two days. Guys with futures on the team don't regularly get demoted to Fresno after the first month of play (which has happened to Velez the past three seasons).

Thus, it's easy to determine Velez's future with the Giants: it is only a matter of time before he's playing for another Major or Minor League team.

It's tough for Velez. He hasn't exactly had it easy while being in San Francisco. In addition to Bochy's disenchantment with playing young players (which has affected Velez in addition to John Bowker), Velez simply has had a hard time finding a position in San Francisco.

Going into Spring Training in 2009, he was expected to be in the running for the second baseman job after Ray Durham was traded away to Milwaukee in 2008. Unfortunately, he never was up to the task offensively (career .306 wOBA) or defensively (minus-16.1 UZR/150 at second base for his career).

Velez provided the Giants some versatility when he began playing more regularly in the outfield in 2009. However, despite his above-average athleticism (he has a career 13.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), his lackluster instincts (he has a minus UZR in center and right) and big time blunders (I don't think I have to remind people about the Philadelphia game) seemed to bury any reputation that he can be a regular fixture in the Giants outfield.

And what has been the nail in the coffin for Velez's future in San Francisco? Two players: Andres Torres and Fred Lewis, who is now a Blue Jay.

Look at what Torres is doing for the Giants this year. Sure, he isn't young (32 years old to be exact), but he can hit (.397 wOBA going into today's game against Arizona), run (five stolen bases) and has tremendous defensive skills (he has a UZR/150 of 49.3 this year in the outfield).

As for Lewis? He has tore it up since moving to Toronto. A lot of fans claimed that Lewis wasn't needed because Velez was just as good an option in left field, if not better.

It's funny because the "Velez is better than Lewis" claim was a moot argument to begin with. Lewis is hitting .298 and has a wOBA of .349 entering today's game. Furthermore, look at what Scott from The Crazy Crabbers said in a post after Lewis was traded to Toronto:

"Let's do a quick comparison of some triple slash lines (AVG/OBP/SLG) to see where he comes down here:

Player A: .281/.339/.449
Player B: .228/.290/.365
Player C: .277/.355/.420
Player D: .265/.306/.401
Player E: .274/.343/.423
Player F: .284/.316/.415
Player G: .245/.292/.403

These are the career numbers of Fred Lewis and the other Giants outfielders. Would it surprise you if I told you that Lewis is player C and has arguably the second best triple slash line for his career.

Here are the identities of each:

Player A: Aaron Rowand
Player B: Andres Torres
Player C: Fred Lewis
Player D: Eugenio Velez
Player E: Mark DeRosa
Player F: Nate Schierholtz
Player G: John Bowker"

Take a long gander at Velez's career slash line: .265, .306 and .401. That's worse than Lewis in every category. And yet, people at the time of Lewis' departure claimed Velez was a better option.

They seem to look foolish now, don't they?

Overall, maybe it was never meant to work out for Velez in San Francisco. After all, he was a Rule 5 draft pick from the Toronto Blue Jays in 2005, and those kinds of players usually aren't expected to have great Major League careers.

Nonetheless, Giants fans got their hopes up about Velez during Spring Training before the 2008 season when Jon Miller pointed him out as a player to watch at a team banquet in Scottsdale. Giants fans got their hopes about Velez when he went on that tear in late July and early August, which parlayed him into being the Giants' leadoff hitter for the remainder of the year. Giants fans got their hopes about Velez because he had cool nicknames like "The Pharaoh" or "Genie" (because he kind of looked like one to be frank).

Well...after this latest demotion for Velez, I think it's safe to say that Giants fans may have gotten their hopes up for nothing.

Giants Prospectus Profile: Eugenio Velez, Utility

Okay. Two things to start off before I begin this second prospectus profile:


1.) Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints for their Super Bowl victory. (It was well-earned, unlike the Steelers' Super Bowl win in 2007.)


2.) I'm still shocked by the news that Hayden Panettiere and Wladimir Klitschko are dating. Seriously, this is the most shocking news I have ever heard in my life. I once mentioned the idea of Alex Rodriguez and Hayden dating to a friend, and my friend said "That's a bit uncomfortable for me to imagine." Klitschko tops that times 100.


Okay, now that those issues are out of the way, onto the second "prospectus profile" on Eugenio Velez.

Standard:
2009: 84 (games), 285 (at-bats), 307 (plate appearances), 76 (hits), 53 (singles), 13 (doubles), 5 (triples), 5 (home runs), 40 (runs), 31 (RBI), 16 (walks), 1 (IBB), 55 (strikeouts), 2 (HBP), 2 (SF), 2 (SH), 6 (GDP), 11 (SB), 5 (CS), .267 (batting average).

Advanced:
2009: 5.2 % (BB%), 19.3 (SO %), 0.29 (BB/K), .308 (OBP), .400 (SLG), .708 (OPS), .133 (ISO), 7.1 (SPD), .316 (BABIP), 31.6 (wRC), -5.1 (wRAA), .309 (wOBA).

Batted Ball:
2009: .316 (BABIP), 1.85 (GB/FB), 17.3 % (LD %), 53.7 % (GB %), 29 % (FB %), 6.0 % (IFFB %), 7.5 % (HR/FB %), 6 (IFH), 4.8 % (IFH %), 0 (BUH), 0% (BUH %).

Value:
2009: -5.3 (Batting), -1.8 (Fielding), 10.2 (Replacement), -1.4 (Positional), 1.7 (RAR), 0.2 (WAR), $1.2 million (WAR converted to Dollars scale).

Win Probability:
2009: 0.04 (WPA), -5.5 (-WPA), 5.54 (+WPA), 0.14 (RE24), 0.02 (REW), 1.04 (pLI), 1.74 (phLI), 14 (PH), 0.14 (WPA/LI), -0.1 (Clutch).

Plate Patience:
2009: 27.9 % (O-swing %), 71.9% (Z-swing %), 50.2 % (swing %), 60.6 % (O-contact %), 87.8 % (Z-contact %), 80.3 % (contact %), 50.7 % (Zone %), 57.3 % (F-strike %).

Fielding:
2009 (LF): 288.2 (innings), 49 (PO), 2 (A), 2 (E), 0 (DP), 0.962 (FP %), 1.2 (RF/G), 1.6 (RF/9), 23 (DG), 43 (exO), 0.1 (ARM), 7.8 (RngR), -0.8 (ErrR), 7.1 (UZR), 46.1 (UZR/150).
2009 (RF): 14 (innings), 3 (PO), 0 (A), 1 (E), 0 (DP), 1.00 (FP %), 0.6 (RF/G), 1.9 (RF/9), 2 (DG), 4 (exO), -0.4 (ARM), -1.1 (RngR), 0 (ErrR), -1.4 (UZR), -87.9 (UZR/150).
2009 (CF): 65.1 (innings), 13 (PO), 0 (A), 1 (E), 0 (DP), 0.929 (FP %), 1.1 (RF/G), 1.5 (RF/9), 7 (DG), 14 (exO), -0.9 (ARM), -1.1 (RngR), -0.2 (ErrR), -2.2 (UZR), -44.7 (UZR/150).
2009 (2B): 215.2 (IP), 55 (PO), 68 (A), 6 (E), 8 (DP), 0.954 (FP %), 4 (RF/G), 5.1 (RF/9), 29 (DG), 66 (exO), -0.4 (DPR), -2.7 (RngR), -2.2 (ErrR), -5.3 (UZR), -28.1 (UZR/150).


Bill James Projections:
2010: 82 (G), 206 (AB), 56 (H), 11 (2B), 3 (3B), 2 (HR), 28 (R), 20 (RBI), 25 (RC), 4.17 (RC/27), 13 (BB), 33 (SO), 14 (SB), 6 (CS), .70 (SB %), .272 (AVG), .318 (OBP), .383 (SLG), .702 (OPS).


Remember '51 Analysis:

Offensive:
Velez has tools, but unfortunately, they often go unrealized in his case. Velez has incredible speed, but his lackluster OBP (.308) and BB rate (5.2  percent), in 2009 show that he simply isn't patient enough at the plate to be a leadoff hitter at the Major League level. Granted, low OBP numbers don't automatically eliminate a guy from leadoff consideration (as evidenced by Willy Tavares), but Velez struggles to utilize his ability as a base-stealer.

In 2009, Velez stole 11 bases. However, he was caught five times. In order to be more utilized on this Giants team, he has to get a better sense when it comes to stealing bases, especially with their leading base-stealer, Randy Winn, now a Yankee.

Velez did have five triples in 2009 (second-most on the team), and hit five home runs, so Velez did show some semblance of power at the plate in 2009. However, he still seems to rely a lot on "seeing-eye" groundballs for base hits. This is evidenced by a 1.85 GB/FB ratio and 53.7 percent groundball rate.

One good quality of Velez's is that he isn't too terrible in terms of swinging at pitches outside the strike zone (especially in comparison to his Giants teammates). He only had a 27.9 percent O-Swing percentage, which put him in the middle of the pack on this Giants roster. Is he incredible? No, but there are players with much worse percentages, and the problem doesn't seem to plague him like it did earlier in his career. Also, surprisingly, out of all the the returning outfielders from last year's squad, Velez had the best contact rate at 80.3 percent (only Randy Winn had a higher contact rate than Velez at 81.2 percent).

Defensive:
Velez can play all three outfield positions and second base. Thus, with that kind of versatility, one would think he'd have tremendous value defensively, right? Not exactly.

With the exception of left field, Velez posted negative UZR ratings at all of his defensive positions. He had a -1.4 UZR at right field, a -2.2 in center field, and a -5.3 UZR at second base. Therefore, left field is really the only position Velez can play, but thankfully for the Giants, he can play it pretty well. His 7.1 UZR in left field in 2009 was the fourth-highest overall on the team.

Velez has good range to handle AT&T Park's big outfield dimensions. His 7.8 RngR was third best on the team last year (behind Winn and Travis Ishikawa). That being said, his arm strength leaves a little to be desired. He posted 0.1, -0.4, and -0.9 ARM ratings in left, center and right field, respectively in 2009.

Contract:
Velez made $404,000 last year, just four grand over the league minimum. Velez should post similar contract figures again this season, since he is still at least another year away from arbitration. That being said, he does provide good bang for the buck. Unlike some outfielders (Aaron Rowand and Mark Derosa come to mind), he won't cost the Giants a tremendous amount of money in 2009. And, to make matters more favorable for him, his WAR converted to dollars measured to $0.8 million last year. It is likely to think that he will post similar, if not slightly better WAR converted to dollars numbers in 2010. Therefore, the Giants will at least be getting more from Velez than what they will be paying him in 2010.

Outlook for 2010:
James has him only playing 82 games, and it makes sense. With the additions of Derosa and Aubrey Huff, Velez most likely will have a limited role on next year's team. Granted, he has speed, and last year, he did show some progress at the plate (though probably not as much as some would like to think). However, his lackluster walk numbers and inconsistency will probably keep him from getting much playing time in 2010. And, with guys like Andres Torres and Fred Lewis also battling for outfield spots next year, Velez will not have much room for error in Spring Training.

Remember '51 Grade: C
Velez has talent, you can't deny that. But he's not exactly young (he'll be 28) and he just doesn't seem to offer more than what a guy like Lewis could offer. If he had more respectable OBP numbers, he'd be a decent option for the Giants in terms of playing more regularly. Unfortunately, his numbers are atrocious to the point where not even his decent speed (five triples, 11 stolen bases) can make him a respectable starting/regular-playing outfield option for the Giants.

Which Giants Players Were Losers from Fall and Winter League?

The "Winners Post" got long, so I decided to split it up.

Like I said before, just because these players are "Losers" of Fall/Winter League doesn't mean that they buried themselves for next season. It was just something I noticed, plain and simple, and I just think numbers, regardless of the level, should be recognized. Do I think guys who were winners can tank in Spring Training? Yes. Do I think guys who were losers are capable of doing much better come March? Of course.

That being said, I also think vice versa as well, for I am an avid believer that some players are capable of transitioning solid Fall/Winter seasons into solid Springs and hopefully, regular seasons. You can't ignore numbers. I learned that in Business school. When you ignore numbers, you get a situation like Enron (the baseball equivalent would be Lance Niekro).

Now, onto the losers. I'll try to be gentle (and you'll want me to especially when you see who I put on the list).


Losers

Buster Posey:
Yikes! I blasphemed, right? No, not really. Posey had a really underwhelming 2009 campaign in Arizona Fall League. In 19 games and 71 AB, Posey posted a .225 batting average, a .683 OPS and hit only two home runs. That is not what Giants fans expected from Posey in Fall League, especially not after his incredible rise through the Giants farm system last season which saw him go from San Jose to San Francisco within the course of a 162 game season. Thus, after posting rather pedestrian numbers for Scottsdale, one can understand why Sabean may have balked at giving Posey the starting job and decided to re-sign Bengie Molina for one more season.

Of course, Posey didn't completely tank. He still posted a .345 OBP (thanks to his 13 walks drawn) and drove in 13 RBI. So, Posey didn't take a complete turn for the worse. That being said, Posey probably needed a strong showing this Fall to prove to Sabean he is ready for the starting catcher's position, and unfortunately, it just didn't happen for him in Scottsdale. Hopefully, he can pick it up in Spring Training and convince Giants brass that he is worth having up at the Major League level as a backup for the time being over Eli Whiteside.

Eugenio Velez:
Velez needs to prove this Spring Training that he is not just a "one month player" and that he can put up solid numbers over the full course of a season. Unfortunately, his performance in DWL play certainly didn't convince anybody that he can play a 162 game season for the Giants.

In 161 AB, Velez posted a .261 batting average, a .313 OBP and a .679 OPS. Furthermore, he only hit two home runs, drew 10 walks and managed to strike out 25 times. Basically, Velez proved to be the same player he has always been, only this is worse because this is Dominican Winter League and not the Major Leagues.

On the bright side, he did show some speed and a better propensity for stealing bases this Winter. He managed to snag 11 bases and was only caught twice. However, in order to be a contributor for the Giants, he needs to improve his abysmal plate patience, and this Winter showed that little progress is being made in the category.

Thankfully, Giants fans can rest nicely knowing that Mark Derosa will be starting in left field on Opening Day (barring injury of course) rather than Velez.

Jesus Guzman:
I know Guzman's gone, but I think his Winter League stats may explain why Sabean was willing to pull the hook on him to clear space for Molina. Sure, Guzman's stats aren't bad: eight home runs, a .290 batting average, a .851 OPS, eight home runs and 37 RBI. Those numbers should be pretty promising, right?

Well, I think you have to only look at two numbers to understand why Guzman was sent packing: 22 BB, 37 SO.

While those numbers aren't atrocious, they aren't comforting for an organization that is looking to upgrade over Travis Ishikawa (though I think Ishikawa can actually be a good option if you look at what he did in the second-half last season). Basically, Guzman's BB/K numbers from Winter League solidify the common-held thought by Giants fans: he's basically a right-handed Ishikawa, but without the glove.

Guzman may find a career with another team. He may find a career as a designated hitter, saving teams of his mediocre defense. However, after looking at his Winter numbers in VWL play, the Giants might have done the right thing by letting him go, especially after Pill's solid season in the VWL.

Osiris Matos:
Matos isn't gone? He's still on the roster? Well...he could make the Giants roster by Opening day, even though it's more likely Shannon Doherty will have a resurgence on television. Why? The guy simply struggles wherever he seems to pitch at.

In DWL play, Matos got shellacked, as evidenced by the 10 hits he allowed in six innings pitched. He also had a god awful WHIP of 2.33 and an ERA of 6.00 in his seven appearances in the Dominican Republic.

Let's face it, in order to make the team, Matos really needs to do something to wow the Giants. After a dismal Winter, I don't think he's capable of doing that.

Denny Bautista:
He's Pedro Martinez's cousin, right? So he must be good, right?

Well, he's going to be 30 in August, and he has bounced around the Majors, unable to live up to the hype that came after the Orioles traded him to Kansas City for Jason Grimsely (the Royals supposedly came up with a steal in that trade when they got Bautista at the time).

In many way, Bautista is just a roll of the dice for the Giants. Is he going to be good? Most likely not. However, the Giants have gotten lucky with these kinds of deals before. Keichii Yabu wasn't terrible, and Justin Miller proved to be decent for half the season in 2009. Could Batista be one of those guys. He could. He has a powerful arm.

That being said, a 1.96 WHIP and nine walks in 7.2 IP isn't going to help put him on that road to "surprise success" anytime soon.

Joe Martinez:
I know this is one more than the "Winners," but I couldn't ignore Martinez. Martinez is a class act, and his recovery from injury really is a great story. Nonetheless, the guy may not have that much of a future with the Giants unless he is really able to turn it around in Spring Training.

This Fall in Scottsdale, Martinez continued to struggle. He finished with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in 23.2 IP. While he put up decent strikeout numbers (26) and low walk totals (8), he simply just gives up too many hits (31 hits) and too many runs (19).

The worst part of this mediocre AFL campaign is that these numbers came in Fall League against Rookies breaking into the league and guys with little big league experience. Martinez actually started a few games for the Giants last season.

The San Francisco Giants "Prospectus" Project

Call me crazy. Call me nerdy. Call me insane. Whatever. I know the average baseball fan doesn't care about advanced statistical analysis. I know everyone thinks Sabermetrics is for geeks who don't watch the games. I know projections rarely ever live up to EXACT fruition.

Like I said before...whatever.

I have the time. I have the energy. I have the resources.

So, I'm starting a San Francisco Giants prospectus.

Granted, this is a very personal prospectus. It includes everything from batted ball analysis, win probability, advanced stats, plate patience, pitch type, etc. And that's not all. I have roster lists, contract information (thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts!), and this year's Bill James Projections (I had to splurge $9.95 on Yahoo for it, but you know what, it's worth it considering what you get).

Of course, this is all on excel sheets and paper right now. So, basically, the only one seeing this prospectus is me, KOB, the author of Remember '51. However, leading up to Spring Training and in the course of the season, I expect to use notes I write in my prospectus "notebook" as posts on this blog. Anything sabermetrically from now on will not just be exclusive to this blog. It will be in handwriting first, in a big purple notebook before I write it here on this blog.

So, does that mean I'm going to be another blog with only sabermetrics baseball angles? No, not really. I will continue to try to be pessimistic and humorous with some posts, be it the Remembering the Great '08 series or just other crazy thoughts in general. However, I think this Prospectus is worth noting because it is an ambitious project and I think it will give some insight to some of the future analytical pieces I will be writing in the future.

But like I said, the posts from now on just won't be from a Saber-slant. I will have articles that will go beyond all statistical and general baseball reasoning. After all, I am half-Filipino and half-Irish, and that mix doesn't make a whole hell of a lot of sense either. I might as well translate that into my baseball writing as well from time to time.

Crazy, irrational, "What the hell does that have to do with Giants baseball?" thought for today? Who would win in a fight? Eugenio Velez or Juan Uribe? Honestly, I don't know. I love the possibilities. On a Giants-fan-level, I would liken the fight to the first Clubber Lang-Rocky fight from Rocky III. Not exactly a fight everyone expects, and probably a lot shorter than we would all want, but there would be fireworks.

The Genie vs. Big Juan. I'm more excited for that than the Manny Pacquiao-Joshua Clottey fight in March.

On the Fringe: Where Do Five San Francisco Giants Players Stand?

From Bleacher Report

With new additions Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa signed, and Freddy Sanchez and Juan Uribe re-signed this offseason by San Francisco Giants General Manager Brian Sabean, the Giants seem to be a brand new team offensively going into next year.

Granted, while these signings seem to blend into Sabean's unending trend of signing veterans that are perhaps on the decline of their careers, on paper, the acquisitions done by Sabean and his management team have to be considered an improvement (I guess).

That being said, these latest moves make things very interesting come this Spring Training for five players who will be on the fringe of making the 25-man roster, perhaps even the 40-man roster: Eugenio Velez, Fred Lewis, John Bowker, Travis Ishikawa and Andres Torres.

Case No. 1: Eugenio Velez. Position: LF, UTL

Eugenio Velez had a solid start after his call-up in late July. However, after being moved permanently to the leadoff position, and seeing playing time everyday, he effectively cooled off and put up rather mediocre stats.

Last season, Velez finished with five home runs, a .267 batting average, and a .708 OPS. While Velez did have 11 stolen bases, he was caught five times, not a good percentage for a base-stealer.

According to Velez's Bill James and CHONE projections for next season, the lanky 27-year-old from the Dominican Republic, most likely will not improve much upon his numbers from a season ago.

CHONE only projects a four point improvement in his OPS, and Bill James actually believes his OPS will drop seven points. And this is also considering that Velez's OPS is pretty awful to being with, especially for a guy expected to bat leadoff.

The only shining grace? Velez is expected to improve his BB/K ratio in both projections. In Bill James, he is expected to improve by 10 points, while he is expected to improve by five points according CHONE. Granted, at 0.29 last year, Velez really has nowhere to go but up.

As far as Velez's future with the Giants? It doesn't look good. DeRosa made things bad, but Huff makes things almost impossible for Velez to continue his playing career in San Francisco.

Prediction: If he has a great (and key word: GREAT) Spring Training, then maybe he could make the roster. However, unless DeRosa gets hurt or Huff falls off the face of the earth, Velez most likely will be gone by May at the latest.

Case No. 2: Fred Lewis. Position: LF

Fred Lewis' future was already in heavy doubt last season, when Nate Schierholtz's surprisingly good offensive numbers in May put him on the bench. Furthermore, he lost even more ground when Velez put up his hot streak in late July and early August.

That being said, Lewis seems to be one of their best outfield options mainly for one reason: his OBP.

The Giants ranked last in OBP last year, and according to Jack Moore of Fangraphs, Lewis may be the Giants' best option when it comes to offense. Lewis had a .348 OBP last year, and according to Bill James and CHONE projections, he is expected to put up a .351 and .344 OBP, respectively.

Couple that with increases in his stolen bases (BJ projects him to steal 13 bases, CHONE projects 11, both projections up from the eight he had last year) and home runs (BJ and CHONE have him at seven and eight, respectively) and Lewis seems to be an enticing option.

However, the Huff signing definitely seems to put a wrench in Lewis' future. With Huff most likely playing first base (unless Bud Selig decides to add the DH in the National League), DeRosa probably will get bumped into left field.

That leaves a unique backup situation in Left Field among Lewis, Velez, John Bowker and Andres Torres. Bowker most likely will go to Triple-A to start the season, and Torres may be better utilized in Center as a backup to Rowand. Thus, the battle is between Velez and Lewis.

If you go by last year, Velez probably will gain more favor by some fans because of his spectacular couple of weeks when he was on fire. That being said, if you are a more knowledgeable fan, Lewis should be the go-to guy because of his consistency.

He wasn't awful, but he wasn't fantastic by any measure. The main question is which aspect is manager Bruce Bochy more impressed with: Velez's brief, spectacular play? Or Lewis' slightly above average consistency?

Prediction: Lewis most likely will get the boot unless he has a great Spring Training. Unlike Velez, there probably is actually a decent market for Lewis (because of his plate patience and decent speed), and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Giants get some return on Lewis by or right before the end of Spring Training.

Whatever happens, seeing Lewis in a Giants uniform by Opening Day isn't a strong possibility.

Case No. 3: John Bowker. Position: OF, 1B

Bowker is coming off a pretty lousy stint last season at the Major League level. He hit .194, posted a .620 OPS and a 0.22 BB/K ratio in 31 games last year with the Giants. However, Bowker is coming off an impressive campaign in Fresno last season where he hit .342, with 21 home runs, and posted a 1.047 OPS and 1.16 BB/K ratio. Basically. Bowker was the best player in the Giants Triple-A team, and he did this all in 104 games as well.

Therefore, that begs Giants fans to ask this question: is Bowker another Todd Linden, a guy who can hit 30 home runs in Triple-A, but do jack at the Major League level? Or is he a player that just needs the right opportunity to show what he can do?

Bowker has shown some success with the Giants. In 2008, he got off to a hot start and hit 10 home runs in a 111 games. That being said, he has really struggled in terms of plate patience. While his BB/K numbers were incredible last year in Fresno, they still were mediocre in 2008 at 0.26.

There is no question Bowker has some pop with the bat. In addition, there is no question that Bowker really doesn't have much else to prove at the Minor League level. However, the question is will he get a shot next year? Or will he continue to only be able to knock Triple-A pitching out of the park. He can play all three outfield positions (though left is really his only position), not to mention first base, but with all those positions already filled to the brim, Bowker might not get the opportunity unless somebody get injured.

Prediction: Bowker could get a shot, but only if somebody ahead of him such as Huff or Derosa fails miserably first. At that point, the season will be already lost, so who knows what could happen to Bowker.

Case No. 4: Travis Ishikawa. Position: 1B

Ishikawa is screwed. Plain and simple. With the Derosa signing, there was already widespread thought that Pablo Sandoval was going to move to first base to allow room for Derosa to play third. Now with Huff on the team, Sandoval will not only play third, but he most likely will play backup at first when Huff needs a spell.

The only role it seems Ishikawa will have on the Giants will be in terms of a defensive replacement. That is quite a shame considering the progress Ishikawa made as a Giant last year.

Last year, despite a putrid start and awful road numbers, he put up nine home runs, and a .715 OPS in 120 games last year in San Francisco. And if that isn't enough, his projections are pretty generous. Bill James projects him to hit 13 home runs, drive in 56 RBI, post a .772 RBI and improve his BB/K ratio to 0.44 (10 points). CHONE projects similar home run numbers (13) and RBI totals (50) and also projects him to make a massive jump in his OPS (.762), though not so much in terms of his BB/K ratio (only 0.35, a one point improvement).

I know Ishikawa is going to be a high strikeout guy. And, though he improved throughout the course of his year, he probably won't ever be a high walk guy either. That being said, Ishikawa's power most likely will improve (mainly because he can't put up putrid road numbers again like he did last year) and you can't really put up a true number of how valuable he is defensively.

Too bad Bochy doesn't know that.

Prediction: Huff's signing almost guarantees Ishikawa starting out in Triple-A Fresno. Only if Huff and Derosa falter simultaneously will Ishikawa get a serious shot at the starting job in 2010, and that probably won't come until mid-season. I mean, Bochy hit Molina in the cleanup despite his sub. 300 OBP.

Case No. 5: Andres Torres. Position: OF

Torres was an incredible surprise last year for the Giants. Despite not playing at the Major League level since 2005, Torres put up a .876 OPS, and stole six bases (and only got caught once). Furthermore, he hit .270 and six home runs in only 75 games, and a 170 plate appearances. This was a guy that had only one career home run at the Major League level prior to 2009.

So, it's safe to say, 2009 was a bit of a breakout season for the tiny, speedy Torres.

However, the question is whether or not he can do it again?

So far, the projections aren't optimistic that he will be able to build on his surprising 2009 season. First off, he's not exactly young (he'll be 32 next season) and he has such a small sample at the Major League level prior to 2009. Bill James predicts that he will have drops in batting average, OBP, and OPS (from. 270 to .264, .343 to .330, and .876 to .731, respectively). CHONE is even more pessimistic. They expect a 22 point dip in average (to .248), a 163 point drop in OPS (.713) and nearly double the amount of strikeouts (from 45 to 87).

The only optimistic stats concerning Torres projections? Similar home run numbers from a year ago (both BJ and CHONE project him to hit six home runs) and an increase in his BB/K ratio (from 0.36 in 2009 to 0.39 and 0.37 in 2010 according to BJ and CHONE respectively).

Granted, the offense may not be Torres most endearing quality. Torres is an incredible defender that was made to cover the sparse outfield at AT&T Park. Furthermore, with six stolen bases and getting caught only once, Torres is not only a speedy base stealer, but he's an efficient one to boot, a quality that makes him a more enticing commodity than Velez, who isn't nearly as efficient.

Prediction: With an ability to play left and center, and with Aaron Rowand on thin ice after an atrocious year last season, Torres is a safe bet to make the squad in 2010. At the very least, he will fill a Dave Roberts "ala 2004 with the Boston Red Sox" role where he will be used as a late inning defensive reserve and pinch hitter for the Giants.

What Can Giants Fans Expect from Eugenio Velez in 2010?

With Mark Derosa now a member of the Giants, Jason Bay a Met, and Matt Holliday more likely than not being on a team that isn't the San Francisco Giants, the possibility of Eugenio Velez starting in left field on Opening Day in 2010 seems to be a very strong possibility.

Therefore, that begs Giants fans to ask the question: is Velez worthy of being the starting left fielder for the Giants in 2010?

First off, Giants fans, bloggers and even beat writers have been critical of the prospect of Velez starting next season. After all, the facts say a lot: Velez got off to a putrid start (.194 batting average, .438 OPS in 23 games in 23 games last season during the first half before he was demoted to Fresno), and while he picked up in the second half, his stats certainly weren't mind blowing, or even really above average.

What was Velez's stat line in the second half of last year? A .277 batting average, a .747 OPS and 10 stolen bases.

Are those stats awful? No, but they aren't great, and they certainly aren't worthy of a guy who is expected to bat leadoff for the Giants either.

To make matters worse, Velez's advanced stats make him even less satiable to Giants fans in terms of him batting leadoff or even starting. He had 0.29 BB/K ratio (Bill James only expects that ratio to improve by ten points next year) and the fact that he had a tendency to swing at bad pitches (he swung at 27.9 percent of pitches out of the strike zone last year) is not a characteristic of a leadoff hitter at the Major League level.

To make matters worse, Velez has two horrible tendencies when it comes to baserunning: he doesn't have very good instincts when it comes to stealing bases (as evidenced by his two-to-one stolen base to caught stealing ratio), and he is incredibly bad in terms of getting out of the box from the right side of the plate.

Seriously, watch Velez bat right handed, and watch him get out of the box. His feet shuffle, and it take probably a good two to three seconds for him to really get going. That is ridiculous. Now, I would be okay (well...tolerate is a better word) if he was a good switch hitter. However, his .200 batting average, and .503 OPS last year as a switch hitter shows that him batting from the right side of the plate is practically worthless. From the right side, he doesn't offer power (he has zero career home runs from the right side of the plate), he doesn't hit well for average, and he kills his one solid quality while batting switch hitter: his speed.

So, is all lost with Velez? Not quite. You cannot ignore a couple things as a Giants fan. For starters, Velez did show improvement last season in the second half. He showed better plate patience, and did show some pop (he hit five home runs last year, while he hit only one home run at the Major League level in his two years prior to 2009). And, while this goes unnoticed, Velez is actually a pretty decent defender. He can play all three outfield positions (though left and center should be more focused than right) and he can play second base. Furthermore, his UZR/150 as a left fielder was actually very good at 46.1. What does this mean (since UZR/150 is one of those "ridiculous stats" of sabermetricians)? This number shows that Velez has tremendous range and instinct in left field. If you don't buy the saber numbers, then just recall his plays. Who was the guy making diving plays and cutting off balls down the line in left field? Chances are it wasn't Fred Lewis (and I like Freddie, okay?)

There is a lot to not like about Velez. He is an impatient hitter, doesn't make the most out of his speed at times, and is older than we would like to think (he's 27, will be 28 next May). That being said, if Velez can do a few things, then I think him starting in left field won't be as bad as Giants fans would like to think.

Here's what Velez needs to do:

1.) Continue his progress in terms of plate patience: While he was not great statistically by any measure, he certainly looked more comfortable at the plate, and spit on pitches he usually swung at in 2007, 2008 and in the first half of 2009. I don't expect Velez to be leading the Giants in walks and have an OBP in the .370-.380 range. However, if he can be a .340-.350 guy, I think that will be good enough due to his speed. In my mind, he's capable of being Juan Pierre with more pop, or a poor man's Willie Tavares in Colorado or Houston (not Cincinatti where his career has blown up quicker than Hiroshima getting atom bombed by the Enola Gay).

2.) Become a better base stealer: He has speed. He may be the fastest guy going from first to third. That being said, he needs to know how to steal second when he gets on. With Randy Winn gone, and Emmanuel Burriss most likely going to start next year in Fresno, this team will be devoid of base stealers other than Andres Torres. If Velez wants to silence critics, he needs to improve his instincts when it comes to swiping second.

3.) Stop being a switch hitter: He stinks at the right side. That is certain. So, if he stinks, why continue? There is no shame in it. JT Snow quit playing around as a switch hitter and he became a better hitter. Velez should follow JT's example.

So there it is. If Velez can do those three things, then I think he can be a decent, perhaps surprising option for the Giants next season in left field. Do I secretly hope the Giants find a better option? Maybe. Do I secretly hope Fred Lewis can get some love and get off to a good start? Sure.

But right now, it's Velez in left, and instead of looking at this like the world found out about the meteor in the beginning of "Armageddon," I'll try to take a more optimistic (or at least hopeful) outlook.

Let's hope I don't kill myself come May if Velez gets designated for assignment.

Mark Derosa is officially a Giant, but does it makes sense for San Francisco?

For the first time since Freddy Sanchez's re-signing, Giants General Manager Brian Sabean finally made a major move this off-season (of course, unless you consider Tony Pena Jr. signing big news, which I necessarily don't). He signed Utility player Mark Derosa to a two year, $12 million dollar deal.

First off, this probably is a solid move, regardless of what some Giants fans may think. Is it sexy? Of course not, but it is a low risk acquisition, which is what the Giants need after years of high-risk, somewhat irresponsible free spending (see: Rowand, Aaron; Roberts, Dave; Zito, Barry). And besides, even if Sabean was willing to go back to his "gunslinger" (e.g. thoughtless and incomprehensible) ways, this isn't the year to do it. The only real players who would make sense in terms of being worth big money contracts would be Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, but Holliday is represented by Scott Boras (e.g. nothing is going to happen because Sabean and Boras get along as well as North and South Korea these days) and Bay has stated publicly that he doesn't want to play in San Francisco (he is on the verge of signing with the Mets anyways).

So, with so few options left now, Sabean made a conservative signing in terms of Derosa. Sure, Derosa is coming off an injury plagued season, had dramatic dips in terms of batting average, OBP and OPS, and will be 35 by next season. However, Derosa does add more power (he had 23 home runs last year), can play multiple positions (such as third base or left field) and did come relatively on the cheap if you look at his WAR converted to Dollars scale on Fangraphs.

Granted though, Derosa isn't a sure fire signing. As bad as this sounds, Derosa does somewhat reek of Aaron Rowand. He's coming off a big power year in a relatively homer-friendly park (e.g. Cleveland, which was the launching pad for Ryan Garko) and at his age, he's likely to decline, especially considering the wrist injury he's coming off of after getting traded to St. Louis. If Derosa isn't healthy (and I'd say the chances are 50-50 he isn't) then there is a high possibility that Derosa may suffer in San Francisco's spacious AT&T park like Edgar Renteria in 2009, or simply not see the field enough to justify his acquisition like Freddy Sanchez's second half last season.

If Derosa DOES stay healthy (and that's a big IF), and he is able to somewhat replicate what he did in Chicago in 2007 and 2008, I can see Derosa having an impact on this Giants team.

However, not as a third baseman.

If anything, manager Bruce Bochy needs to play Derosa in left field for this deal to have any credibility. First off, I don't think Pablo Sandoval going to first is the answer. Is Sandoval perhaps playing a little out of position? Maybe, but his problems have more to do with his arm rather than his glove. After a full year at third, I think Sandoval has learned what it takes to be a major league third baseman. This isn't the Miguel Cabrera situation where Cabrera couldn't make a move laterally. Sandoval is actually very nimble for his size, and to put him at first, in my mind, would be a waste of his surprisingly athletic ability.

Furthermore, moving Sandoval to first would be pretty much it for Travis Ishikawa, who I'm not ready to give up on. Is Ishikawa there yet? No, absolutely not, but he showed significant progress after a slow start in 2009. The guy does need to be able to hit on the road better, but I think a platoon of Ishikawa and Jesus Guzman would be sufficient enough for a Giants team looking to make the playoffs next year.

Where Derosa really needs to go for the Giants is in left field, simply because the left field position currently is so unproven. Eugenio Velez was a product of a hot month. While he did show better plate patience and had a better approach at the plate in the second half last season, Velez's history of poor starts in his career should be a caution for all those championing him to be in the starting lineup on Opening Day. As for Torres, he has good speed and had an excellent year (his best season so far in the majors), but again, it is hard to determine whether or not he will be able to replicate the season he had last season. There is just so little history on the guy to fall back on, and it would just be too much of a risk for the Giants to make Torres an everyday starter. As a platoon guy he's great, but the Giants need more proof from him that he can play left field everyday for the Giants.

In additon, left field might actually be a better position for Derosa, especially defensively. First off, his UZR/150 numbers in terms of playing outfield last year are actually better in comparison to him playing third base (31.2 in 2009 when playing outfield, -8.7 when playing third base). Thus, defensively, he is not that much of an upgrade over Pablo Sandoval (Sandoval had a -6.7 UZR/150 last year). Sure, defensively, according to UZR/150, Derosa may be worse than Velez (who has a UZR/150 of 46.1 when playing left field last year), but what Derosa will offer offensively should efficiently supplant Velez despite the difference defensively. Derosa has a better history compared to Velez in terms of OBP and OPS, and those are two categories the Giants need to drastically improve after their offensive debacle in 2009.

So, Derosa should be solid player for San Francisco in 2009. I am confident enough (and optimistic enough) to make that statement. Will he reach that 23-homer mark again like he did last year? Probably not, simply because Cleveland Indians players have not transitioned well to AT&T Park recently (cough...Garko...cough). However, to think his OBP and OPS numbers will dip under .320 and .750 again may be far fetched. Sure, age will come up and creep up on Derosa (simply because it does at 35), but I think Derosa is capable of having a solid season where his numbers in those categories could fall in the .340-.360, and .780-.800 range in terms of OBP and OPS.

That being said, for this signing to really have an effect, Derosa must play left field. Even if the Giants make a big splash signing in the Adrian Beltre (which would move Sandoval to third, but probably won't happen) or Adam LaRoche (which would supplant Ishikawa, and could happen) mold, Derosa is better suited to being the starting left fielder on Opening Day for the Giants.

Because in all honesty, an Opening Day lineup with Eugenio Velez may not be the best idea. He is relatively unproven, and probably better suited as a utility player. Having him start everyday to begin the 2010 season most likely will expose his inability to be a starting player, and will hurt the Giants playoff chances early on.

Is that a little pessimistic? Perhaps, but just look at Emmanuel Burris last year and you'll understand my concern.

Does Eugenio Velez have a career with Giants? One Giants fan thinks so

About a couple of weeks ago, Eugenio Velez was an afterthought. Heck, I even wrote an article on Bleacher Report about how I felt his tenure as a Giant was probably going to come to an end after this season. After all, if you look at him and his career, there is not a lot to like. He is 27, and for the most part, during his two seasons at the big league level (roughly), Velez has been an afterthought in this Giants organization.

Going into Spring Training this season, he wasn't deemed worthy to compete with Emmanuel Burriss and Kevin Frandsen for the open second base position. So, in order to maximize his value, Velez decided to take his skills into the outfield. However, it didn't matter what position Velez could or couldn't play, for his batting skills that ultimately doomed him early this season as Velez was demoted to Fresno in late May after batting only .194 with a .216 OBP.

After his demotion, many wondered if Velez perhaps would get designated for assignment this year. With Frandsen, Burriss, Juan Uribe and Matt Downs all competing for the second base job, and the outfield already crowded with Fred Lewis and Andres Torres as reserves, Velez simply had no place at the Major League level.

Then, he got his second callup this season, and suddenly, the sentiment concerning Velez has changed.

In his last seven games, Velez has batted .462 with seven RBI. Velez has been a spark plug in the lineup, and manager Bruce Bochy has found it tough to keep the hot-hitting Velez out of the lineup.

Finally, for the first time in his career as a Giant, Velez is starting to show some of that promise he showed last year in Spring Training when even commentators like Jon Miller were singing his praises as the Giants "next big thing."

However, with Freddy Sanchez acquired from the Pirates last week before the Trade Deadline, Velez's situation doesn't seem any better than it was in April. There still aren't a lot of places to put Velez, and once the team gets fully healthy, Velez will have a hard time finding at-bats, even if he continues his hot-hitting pace.

To most people, the best solution with Velez would probably be to deal him while he is hot, and maybe find a suitor that would compensate something decent in exchange for him.

That being said, I think Giants fans should not be so haste with those thoughts. Is Velez's latest callup maybe a flash in the pan? Is it just a hot streak that may not last much longer than next week?

Perhaps, but I don't think anyone can deny that Velez has developed into a different player, especially at the plate. Instead of the free-swinging, impatient kid we saw in April and May chasing everything and anything in and out of the strike zone, Velez has become a very good, clutch hitter.

With the bases loaded against Philadelphia in the sixth inning, Velez tattooed a hit past Ryan Howard to score two runs. Would Velez have done that earlier this year or even last year? Probably not, especially considering in the at-bat, Chan-Ho Park was throwing all the kinds of bait Velez would have hooked upon before.

This simply isn't the same Velez we've been exposed to in his tenure in the Bay Area. Who knows what got to him. Whether he knows this is his last chance at the Major League level, or if he just needed more time at Triple-A Fresno, Velez has certainly stepped up after a disappointing first couple of months this year. He has become an adequate leadoff hitter, and he can be utilized anywhere, from left field to second base. Not many guys on this team have that kind of versatility, which is further reason why Velez should be kept instead of dealt this offseason.

In my mind, Velez is showing something special, and is on the cusp of being something eye-popping. Is he going to be an All-Star? Probably not, but he is going to be a productive player and a unique player that can produce a very high reward for this Giants organization.

Guys like Velez, guys who can make the adjustments to play four or five positions in the field, don't come very often, and it would be a shame to see Brian Sabean waste this opportunity because most people think that his latest performance is just a "fluke."

We will have to see in the next couple of weeks whether or not Velez can continue his stellar play before we can judge him as a "fluke" or not. As great as he has hit these last seven games, it is exactly that: just seven games.

However, I have a feeling Velez has more in store, and there are better things to come with him in the "not to distant" future. I can only hope the Giants organization has the patience to stick with him as he continues to work toward the bigger payoff that I know is coming down the road for this Giants team, and Giants fans.