Is the Prospect Talent in the Giants System Treading Shallow Waters in 2011?

The Giants have undergone bit of an identity change under Brian Sabean's tenure as GM. Once known for dishing talent for higher-priced veterans (especially during the Barry Bonds era), the Giants the last five to six years made a heavy commitment to rebuild their minor league system. It all started with guys like Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, but with the emergence of Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner last year, baseball fans and experts around the nation took notice of the talent the Giants were stocking and bringing up in their system. The days of Sabean trading Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano seemed to be a thing of the past (though Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanchez certainly wasn't popular at the time), as the organization seemed committed to developing their own players so they could eventually contribute to the San Francisco club, and not just the Fresno, Richmond and San Jose ones (in addition to Augusta, Salem Keizer and Arizona ones).

That being said, with Brandon Belt making the Opening Day roster (and then being eventually demoted back down to Fresno...a wise decision in my opinion), there seemed to be a question that lingered with Giants fans: Is the talent pool still strong in the Giants system? Or with Posey and Bumgarner now Major League players, is the talent not as deep as it was the past few seasons.

The answer is a mixed bag. First off, if you take a look at the Top 10 prospects list from Fangraphs the past two seasons (2010 and 2011), the list doesn't look that dramatically different, but the 2011 list doesn't pack the same punch as the 2010 one. Posey, Bumgarner and Dun Runzler are off the list in 2011, and the aura of the Giants rankings kind of diminishes as a result. Despite the losses though, many of the same players are there. Thomas Neal, Ehire Adrianza, Brandon Crawford, and Francisco Peguero are still prospects of note that still bring high hopes for the future of this Giants organization.

Unfortunately, there are a few guys who have fallen out of favor with "experts" and have questionable futures in this Giants organization. Roger Kieschnick tumbled big time in Richmond and out of the Top 10 after being ranked No. 5 in 2010 (then again, that probably was a reach considering his strikeout percentage). Clayton Tanner also tumbled out of the Top-10 after being ranked 8th going into the 2010 year. And Waldis Joaquin? He's not even in the Giants organization (he was released from the 40-man last season).

Additionally, those aren't the only prospects whose stocks have taken a hit. Conor Gillaspie and Nick Noonan came in with a lot of promise after being drafted in the first rounds of the 2008 and 2007 drafts, respectively. And yet, neither has made a big dent in the minors, as Gillaspie has struggled with his fielding and power, while Noonan has been over-matched offensively (though to be fair, he was probably rushed to Double-A last year and should have started the year in San Jose). Henry Sosa has also fallen into the Gillaspie and Noonan mold, failing to live up to the promise he garnered after striking out 139 in 125 innings pitched between Salem-Keizer and San Jose in 2007 (then again, injuries have been the main cause to Sosa's struggles).

Should Giants be fearful that the managements is reverting back to the old days, when the talent pool was thin in the minors and instead money was being spent through free agency on older vets like Dave Roberts and Matt Morris?

In the words of Lee Corso, I would say "not so fast my friend."

Yes, it may be easy to think that the farm system is in trouble with Posey and Bumgarner, two of our most prized prospects that past couple of seasons, no longer in the minors. Furthermore, it may be easy to get jealous when you look at systems like Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Toronto, which are packed to the brim with promising young talent. Also, the 20th future talent ranking according to Fangraphs doesn't exactly make Giants fans feel easy. When you look at the system as a whole though, the future talent in the Giants organization is still solid and bright.

Zach Wheeler, despite struggling through inconsistency and injuries last year, still displayed solid stuff in his first full year in Augusta, and he is off to a dominating start in the California League (18 strikeouts in 15.1 IP, 2-0 record, 0.96 WHIP, 4.02 ERA). Crawford and Adrianza have the potential to be everyday Major League shortstops considering their defensive ability (though they will have to develop some flaws offensively if they want to break into the Majors sooner rather than later). And even though the catcher's position seems to be solidified for the future with Posey, Hector Sanchez and Tommy Joseph showed flashes of promise in their campaigns in the South Atlantic League last season (Sanchez showed some decent plate patience and Joseph showcased solid power with Augusta as he hit 16 home runs).

And let's not forget about the heralded guys Belt and Gary Brown. Belt showed he could handle himself at the Major League level despite having only ONE year of professional experience under his belt (one!). And as for Brown, he's off to a great start in San Jose, as he was hitting .343 with a .819 OPS and 15 stolen bases going into tonight's game (and he hit an inside-the-park home run tonight!).

Sure, the system looked a lot nicer with Posey and Bumgarner, but those guys were elite First Round picks. They lived up to their potential, and the Giants roster is benefiting. That's a good thing. In my mind, it's better that our talent is contributing to our Major League roster rather than Minor League ones like some other teams (such as the Royals for example). It shows not only are we developing our prospects properly, but management is doing a good job investing in the right guys. Yes, the Minor League talent depth will take a hit, but in the long run, the point of prospects is for them to contribute to the Major League club, not just the Minor League ones.

Giants fans really have no reason to fret. The talent pool maybe isn't as deep as it was in 2008, 2009 and even 2010, but it's still chock-full with potential. The names aren't as big as the Posey's, Bumgarner's and even Belt's, but as we have seen so far this year, players are starting to emerge as serious candidates to contribute to the Giants roster in the next three to four years at the soonest.

Is three to four years too long? Maybe, but the talent is fine at the Major League level, and that's not a bad thing to have. With guys like Posey, Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval, Brian Wilson, and Jonathan Sanchez as our core for the future, there is no need to rush a Brown, Wheeler or Neal (and in some ways, even Belt). As history has showed (especially in our own organization), it's better to develop guys slowly rather than throw them quickly into the fire. Even phenoms like Lincecum and Posey spent some time to develop in the minors before they made the Big League jump. Ask Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City, teams that rushed their talent to the Majors, how that strategy fared out for them...

It didn't result in any playoff appearances or World Series titles, that's for sure.

"May"-Hem: One Frustrating Week for Giants Baseball Fans

The Giants still have a chance to come out with a win from the Padres in this series. I'm trying to stay that optimistic. Jonathan Sanchez is on the hill, and for some reason, I have that feeling that Sanchez will deal and help the Giants avoid an 0-6 start to the season against the Friars. After all, he's pitched  somewhat well in the past against the Padres.

However, this isn't about the series against the Padres solely. It goes beyond that. The Giants so far this week have been frustrating the living daylights out of us fans. Here are some reasons why:



The Giants' Ineptitude Against the Padres This Series


Check out the game graphs from yesterday and today's losses on Fangraphs.

I'm sorry. That sucks. It sucks because when you look at the graphs, you realize we just have gone downhill and haven't clawed back in the slightest this series against a team that we are better on paper against. (At home nonetheless!) It sucks to see the Padres doing the damage this series, and it's guys like Jerry Hairston Jr. and Yorvit "I can't hit against anybody but the Giants"  Torrealba.

Ugh...I'm getting sick to my stomach. Looking at these graphs makes me feel like the Duke brothers at the end of "Trading Places."



Brian Sabean Saying "Triple-A" Doesn't Matter

I hate Sabean. I hated him before and I hate him even more after he made some asinine comments in an article by San Jose Mercury Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly in regard to the prospect of bringing up Buster Posey. Here's a "gem of wisdom" from the longest tenured general manager in Major League Baseball.

"Triple-A baseball isn't very good," Sabean said. "I'm going to tell you that right now. Especially from a pitching standpoint. Anybody who can pitch is in the big leagues."

Lunacy. Sabean makes absolute no sense and ends up sounding not only like an idiot, but a blowhard idiot to boot. (And I'm not the only one saying it's dumb either.)

Look...we get it Sabes. You don't want bring up Posey and mess up the arbitration process like you did with Tim Lincecum. We know you can't say that to the media. However, you have reasonable excuses. Say you're "Behind Bengie and Eli (or "Whitey" as Bruce Bochy likes to call him) for the time being." Say "Posey could use half a season working with Madison Bumgarner."

But to say "Triple-A baseball isn't very good?" Come on. You know you aren't going to win that argument, and you just make the Giants organization and Giants fans look foolish.

I wish I could write pieces like this about Sabean, but it's times like this that prove time and time again why Sabean is such an overrated (and over-employed) general manager.


Bengie Molina: "Mr. Outspoken."

I really like Bengie. I do. He's the best catcher we've had in a Giants uniform since Bob Brenly and he is a great clubhouse guy that has worked well with our pitching staff. Furthermore, it is very hard to find a decent hitting catcher these days, let alone a good one like Molina, so you have to feel, as a Giants fan, we've been pretty lucky these past three-plus years.

Yet, Molina seems to be wearing out his welcome with the Giants. First off, he hasn't made things easy with the Posey situation (apparently, he's "frustrated" with how it's being handled). Secondly, on his personal blog, Behind the Mask, he went on a bit of a tirade against ESPN, which poked fun at his speed (or lack thereof) on Sportscenter. Here's a little tidbit from his post today:

"Look, you can say I'm the slowest guy in baseball or in  all of sports or in the entire world. I don't take issue with that because I AM the slowest guy. I have always been the slowest guy. I can't challenge that criticism. But ESPN's intention was not to criticize but to humiliate."

I'm sorry Bengie, but I just got to disagree with you on these two things. First off, I know you're ticked that you didn't get offered more money this off-season. I know you got screwed over by the Mets, and you deserve to be angry. But nobody forced you to sign this off-season with the Giants. Heck, even Giants management implored you to not sign with the Giants. You knew Posey was the catcher of the future and still, you signed anyway. You don't have any excuse or leeway to complain about this.

In terms of point two, it's ESPN. Everybody gets made fun of there. What else did you expect? Have you watched Sportscenter the past ten years? That's just the nature of how the show is. Furthermore, if you don't want anymore criticism (I saw the telecast, it's really not that bad) then don't attract any attention to yourself. Nobody would have remembered the slow-mo of you running home beyond today, but because you brought it up, it'll be talked for at least a few more. Let sleeping dogs lie Bengie. ESPN poking fun at you for something you know to be pretty obvious is nothing to cry "murder" over. It could have been worse.


Mark Derosa's Wrist Problems

Another reason for my dislike of Sabean. He commits $24 million this off-season to Mark Derosa and Freddy Sanchez. What happens? Sanchez begins the year on the Disabled List because of off-season knee surgery, and now, Derosa claims that his wrist surgery this off-season was a "total failure" in an article in the San Jose Mercury.

DeRosa said he "didn't feel great" when he started to hit before Giants camp opened, "but I just figured that was part of coming back from wrist surgery. And in spring training, you can kind of dance around it. You can feel good and get a couple of windblown doubles in the gap, and everybody thinks you're ready to go."

That's awesome. Not only did Sabean sign one guy with injury problems (simply because he needed to save face after trading away Tim Alderson), it appears that he signed two this off-season (three if you count Edgar Renteria the previous season). What makes this even better? Remember '51's boy Fred Lewis is doing serious damage in Toronto. Here's what he's doing with the Blue Jays:

1.) Batting leadoff (something Giants fans said "He couldn't do.")
2.) Hitting .296 with a .813 OPS, 10 doubles, 13 RBI, 14 R and 3 SB.
3.) Being clutch (wonder how the guys at Bleacher Report feel about this article now) and winning Blue Jays fans over (Bluebird Banter said that it would be a travesty if Lewis is taken out of the lineup in favor of a Edwin Encarnacion at third, Jose Bautista in the outfield, lineup when Encarnacion returns).

But I guess we just had to sign Derosa, right?

An Inexplicable Giants Season: Succeeding Despite the Questionable Stats

From Bleacher Report

With a 65-54 record going into Wednesday's game against the Reds, the Giants certainly have surpassed expectations this year.

This was a team that was coming off a 72-90 season in 2008 and—sans the signings of Edgar Renteria, Jeremy Affeldt and Juan Uribe—didn't really make a splash in the offseason.

Giants GM Brian Sabean and the ownership group led by Bill Neukom passed on Manny Ramirez, even though there were relatively no suitors other than the Los Angeles Dodgers.

And still, despite the little change in terms of the roster, the Giants have succeeded and raised the hopes of Giants fans in the Bay Area.

However, when you look at this 2009 season from a statistical perspective, little makes sense in terms of the Giants success.

Granted, I am no sabermetrician by any means. In fact, this summer, I have slowly gotten more acquainted with the intense-but-effective language of baseball statistical analysis.

This summer, I have finally read the highly lauded book Moneyball by Michael Lewis. I have become a frequent reader of sabermetrics Web sites such as Beyond the Box Score and Fangraphs. And, as a college graduate with a degree in economics, I have become fascinated with the connection between economics and baseball and correlating the value of baseball players.

That being said, I am also a baseball fan, who played baseball in high school, so I can appreciate the little things that go beyond stats and numbers.

So basically, the Giants, have piqued my interest as a baseball fan who tries to balance both ends of the baseball analytical system: the objective, statistical side, and the subjective, "believe it with your eyes" side.

On paper, other than the wins-loss record, the Giants have not had that great of a season.

In team batting this year, the Giants hover around the basement of the National League in almost every statistical category of note.

In the NL this year, the Giants rank 14th in runs scored, total bases and slugging percentage. They also rank second to last in the NL in homer runs, OBP and OPS.

And in terms of an individual basis, the Giants don't have a player on the team that's reached the 20-homer mark yet, have only three regular players that have cracked the .300-average mark (Pablo Sandoval, Eugenio Velez, and Freddy Sanchez) and have only two players that crack the .350 mark in OBP (Sandoval and Fred Lewis).

The batting has been very statistically poor, more telling of a team that is hovering around the basement of the NL West like the San Diego Padres rather than one that is competing for a wild card spot.

Granted, you can credit the pitching for the Giants' resurgence this year.

The Giants pitching staff leads the National League in ERA (3.50), complete games (10), shutouts (15), strikeouts (934), and is second in batting average allowed (.237, five points behind the current NL-leading Dodgers).

Furthermore, the Giants have two stud, All-Star starting pitchers this year in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain who both have 12 wins and ERAs of 2.37 and 2.49, respectively.

The bullpen has also been performing admirably, spearheaded by left-hander Jeremy Affeldt, who has 24 holds and a 1.81 ERA, right-handed middle relief pitcher Justin Miller, who has a 1.83 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, and right-handed closer Brian Wilson, who has 29 saves and a 1.13 WHIP.

Yet despite those incredible pitching statistics, it doesn't automatically mean success.

In the Power Rankings put together by the sabermetrics blog Beyond the Box Score, which ranks teams according to batting, pitching, and fielding statistics, the Giants are around the bottom of the league.

The Giants ranked 22nd in the latest Aug. 12 rankings, behind losing teams such as Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, and even the Giants' Bay Area rivals—the Oakland A's.

So what gives? How do the Giants succeed despite most pieces of objective data suggesting they are simply a mediocre team with, as one obnoxious New York Mets fan put it on Twitter, "A Triple-A lineup other than Sandoval?"

Sometimes, baseball is just funny.

The Giants have just been a team of incredible ups and downs this year.

The Giants have an enormous amount of incredible successes, like their hot June, the emergence of the "Panda," the one-two punch of Lincecum and Cain, Jonathan Sanchez's no-hitter, and so on.

They have also had their incredible share of downs, though. The awful start to the year, the 3-7 road trip to start the second half, the Dodgers series Aug. 10-12 at AT&T Park, losing two out of three at home to the Cincinnati Reds.

Despite those depressing moments, though, the Giants seems to have had more positives than negatives. They have been a team that has been able to put things together on the field, even if they might not come in the prettiest or most statistically favorable way.

The Giants are proof that baseball sometimes goes beyond paper, and that teams can be successful, even if you can't prove it through numbers and figures.

And that is what makes this team so fun for a Giants fan. Every time you think you have figured out this team and know where they're heading, they come out and surprise you once again.

Like last night, for instance. Down four runs in a game to the Reds where Lincecum is having one of his worst starts of the year and Sandoval gets the hat trick in strikeouts, the Giants somehow come back thanks to Ryan Garko's four-RBI performance.

The same Ryan Garko that had been a bust in my mind until yesterday.

The win was also the first time the Giants had come back and won when down by four runs in a game.

Believe me, that certainly wasn't in my mind when I saw Joey Votto park one off Lincecum to make it a 5-1 game.

It really has been an amazing season to behold for Giants fans, baseball fans, and sabermertics enthusiasts alike. It simply has been baffling, but in a good way that shows not all baseball games can be absolutely predicted with numbers.

Who knows what the stats will ultimately mean for the Giants during this last month-and-a-half of the season?

Is it a sign of things to come? Or are the 2009 Giants an exception to the rules that have governed baseball and its fans and experts so firmly since Michael Lewis' book was published?

Whatever happens, I am happy about what the Giants have done this year, warts and all. As much as I like going by the numbers to help understand trends and predict results, I also am guilty of liking the Giants' free-swinging play, led by the affable and ever-interesting "Kung-Fu Panda."

As Giants coach and former Giants infielder Shawon Dunston said in the article about Sandoval in the Aug. 10 issue of Sports Illustrated, "You want to see a walk? Then go watch the mailman."

From a fan that appreciates baseball in all forms, statistical and live, I can certainly sympathize with what Dunston is saying.