Prospect Highlight: Angel Villalona, 1B

I got this idea from OGC, who commented on the update post, and I figured, ever certain number of posts in the Top 30 prospect list I would highlight a certain player who merits some discussion. These posts won't be as long as the Top 30 profiles, but they are pieces to highlight certain players who should still be focused on by Giants fans in 2012.


Why is Angel Villalona Highlighted?

Villalona is probably one of the most interesting stories in the Giants minor league system. In Augusta of 2006, the Giants awarded the 16 year old Villalona with a $2.1 million signing bonus, the highest in team history for an international signing at the time (it would later be surpassed by Rafael Rodriguez). Villalona at the time was considered a man among boys: he had tremendous power, and many experts felt that Villalona could develop into an All-Star calibur player who would regularly hit 30-plus home runs at the Major League level. However, toward the end of the 2009 season, Villalona was charged with murder in his home country, the Dominican Republic. Though charges against him were eventually dropped, his visa was revoked, and Villalona spent two years away from organized baseball. Despite the uncertainty of his future, the Giants still placed Villalona on the 40-man roster at the end of this year (most likely to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft).



What Makes Villalona Interesting?

Villalona has plus power and that was evident in his stints in the lower minors early in his career. He hit 17 home runs in 2008 in Augusta and posted a slugging percentage of .435 as well. While the numbers aren't eye-popping, he did this as a 17 year old, so the fact that he was able to hit with as much power as he did as a teenager against competition 2-4 years older than him is impressive. While his power did decrease in the hitter-friendly California League (his home runs dropped to 9 and slugging dipped under .400 to .397 in 310 plate appearances), he was still considerably young for the league (only 18 in a league which average 22-23 years of age), and did deal with some minor injuries that limited him to almost 200 less plate appearances from the previous season.

Furthermore, the reports from some of the coaches in the organization about Villalona initially were very positive, which gave some hope that despite the average numbers, he was progressing on the right track to stardom. The reports detailed him as a hardworking guy who was showing signs (though inconsistent) of improvement, especially over the course of seasons (e.g. he improved at the plate with more and more at-bats). Here's what Augusta manager Andy Skeels said about Villalona after the 2008 season:

"You come out of Spring Training and they're so young and never experienced a full season, so you don't know what you're going to get. For someone that young, it's a testament to what our staff did and a testament to the kind of kid Angel is. He's a tremendous talent and he dedicated himself much better to becoming a professional."

What keeps Villalona out of the Top 30?

On potential alone, Villalona could be a Top 30 prospect. He was a Top 50 prospect in baseball as recently as 2009. His power tool is that good. Unfortunately, the question of whether or not he is going to play this year stateside only compounds to an already big laundry list of factors working against him as a prospect. Originally billed as a highly athletic, "five tool" potential player out of the DR at the time of his signing, Villalona proved as soon as his first year in professional ball that he was probably a three tool player at best. He didn't have as much speed as expected, and defensively he proved to be nothing special at any level (in two of his three seasons RTZ, or Total Zone Fielding Runs, rated his defense as below average).

In addition to a lack of speed and questionable defense, Villalona had major conditioning issues, as his weight ballooned to the point where the Giants brass moved Villalona from third to first after his first full year in Rookie ball and the Northwest League. While a move from third to first base was also probably the best due to his defensive ability, it certainly hurt his status as a prospect, since his power is a premium for a third base prospect, but probably only above-average for a first base one.

While Villalona's hit tool and power tool have plus potential, his plate approach isn't (and that's putting it nicely). As a matter of fact, the biggest knock against Villalona as a prospect was his total lack of discipline and propensity for swinging at pitches badly out of the strike zone. In his three minor league seasons, his average OBP is .316 and his career BB/K ratio sits at 0.18 (which makes Francisco Peguero look like Kevin Youkilis by comparison). The main issue was his two-strike approach, as he seemingly swung at any and everything out of the strike zone. Add this with a lack of walks (only 42 career walks in 1047 plate appearances), and safe to say there were a lot of strikes against Villalona even before the murder incident occurred.


Can Villalona Improve?

I would like to say "Yes," though I do so with some reservations. I am an optimistic guy and I feel like Villalona should have a new spin on his career after such a life-altering incident. I know Osvaldo Martinez in the White Sox (previously Marlins) had a bit of a career turn-around after he was involved in a shooting in his native Puerto Rico (he was the victim though). I'm hoping Villalona can do the same and really take the bull by the horns after almost losing everything.

That being said, the odds are against Villalona. He's had two years away from the states, and his youth, one of the biggest factors working for him as a prospect, is essentially gone. With two lost minor league seasons, he now has to spend a year (maybe even two) to just get reacquainted with the game again. Also, how in shape Villalona is will be a big issue, since it was a problem when he was here stateside. After two years away from the game, it isn't likely that he's in pristine condition (though I do hope he's in at least decent shape, and despite the visa denial saying otherwise, I think he had kept okay care of himself, from reports I have read).

The Giants will need to be patient with Villalona as he works toward being a viable prospect in their system once again. He still is only 21 years old, so there is some time in his favor (though obviously not as much as before). Nonetheless, Villalona is a high risk, high reward kind of player, whose future is extremely murky at this point. So while he may have the potential to recapture the lofty status he once held, it is also highly possible that the Giants made a big mistake putting him on the 40-man roster (I don't think it was, considering how many players have turned into studs from the Rule 5 draft, but we'll see).

Whatever the future may hold for Villalona, it is unlikely that Giants fans will get a good idea of what his future projection will be after this year. Most likely, we won't know Villalona's true future projection for at least a couple of more seasons.

Some Changes to the OTF Top 30 List

I decided to make some changes to the Top-30 Prospects list. While I did put some time into my rankings, there were some rankings in retrospect I felt needed to be changed. Is it the most professional thing to do? Probably not, but I want to at least make a list that is accurate of my feeling for the organization's prospects. I think for now, I am pretty confident in this list and there won't be any further changes made.

Here's a list of the changes:

1.) The most notable change I made was moving Angel Villalona into the rankings at No. 30. To be honest, I wanted to put him here initially, but I withdrew because I wasn't even sure he'd be playing this year (So I went with the high upside, but still questionable pitcher Kendry Flores instead). Now that news has broken that he has received his work visa, I feel I can put him in now, especially since I think he is better prospect than Flores, despite the layoff. I do agree that it's a generous ranking and if you put a gun to my head, my initial thought would be that it is unlikely that he'll pan out as a grade C prospect. But remember, Villalona was a Top-50 prospect according to BA a few years ago, and he is still relatively young (he's only 21 years old), so there is some potential to salvage something with Villalona.

2.) I rose outfielder Francisco Peguero in the rankings to No. 7, and consequently increased his grade from a B- to a B. As much as I dislike the plate approach and the lack of walks, Pegeuro's tools rate too strong for him to be considered a B- prospect. I was tempted to put Peguero over Andrew Susac, but I feel Susac's position (catcher) gives him the advantage.

3.) Likewise, I dropped Kyle Crick to No. 8 and Eric Surkamp to No. 9. I decreased Crick's grade to a B-, while Surkamp's grade stayed the same at a B-. Another change I made was increasing Hector Sanchez's grade from a C+ to a B-. I felt I shorted Sanchez a little too much when coming up the rankings and at No. 10, he deserves at least a B- grade.

What Does the Future Hold for Angel Villalona?

I was reading a piece on Beyond the Box Score about Wily Mo Pena, and it got me thinking: who in the Giants system has or had the kind of raw power like Pena and came from a similar background? (e.g. signed when he was young, free swinger, well-sized, but athletic kid out of Latin America.)

The first player that came to mind was Angel Villalona.

Yes, the same Villalona that signed a then-club record $2.1 million signing bonus in 2006.

The same Villalona who was once a Top-50 prospect in all of baseball in 2008 and 2009, according to Baseball America.

And yep, the same Villalona who is currently accused of murdering a 25-year old man at a night club in the Dominican Republic on September 19, 2009.

The former "free-swinging" first base prospect is currently out of jail and on bail, and his defense team swayed the family of the victim drop charges against him, but Villalona's life is far from being back on track. First off, the prosecution is still following through on the case, even without the victim's family involved. Secondly, Villalona's visa was revoked after the murder, and it is murky in terms of when or even if Villalona will get another visa to come back stateside and play ball. And lastly, after serving some time in jail and undergoing this exhausting legal process, he hasn't played organized baseball since July of 2009, where a leg injury ended his season early in San Jose.

It's a shame that Villalona's professional career in the United States may be over before it ever started. He's only 20 years old, but he hasn't played in almost two years. While he has been practicing a little bit in the Dominican Republic (as evidenced by this video announcing his release from jail), he certainly hasn't faced the caliber of pitching or been in the kind of  practice schedule or environment he had been accustomed to the past couple of years.

A top prospect in the Giants system for a couple of seasons, Villalona was very much in the Wily Mo-mold: he had tremendous size, tools and pop, but he was a free swinger with poor strike zone judgment, who had to make strides in terms of improving his plate patience. In three seasons in the minors, Villalona's walk rate declined each season (from 6.7 percent in Arizona to 3.6 percent in Augusta to 2.9 percent in San Jose), as did his BB/K ratio (0.36 to 0.15 to 0.12). His power numbers weren't mind blowing in the AZL (five home runs, .160 ISO in 224 plate appearances) or the Sally (17 home runs, .172 ISO in 500 plate appearances), but considering he was only 17 and 18 years old at the time, many people saw the semblance of power a comforting sign since he was so young and his tools were so raw and undeveloped. With more exposure to minor league pitching, Giants fans and even management figured the power would start to come in bunches and the plate approach would improve as well, which would help him increase his batting average over time.

His San Jose campaign was disappointing though, as Villalona didn't show the improvement Giants fans and management expected. He only hit nine home runs, and his ISO fell to .130. Also, his walk rate at 2.9 percent was a career low (sans the five game stint in Salem Keizer in 2007 where he had zero strikeouts), and his 25 percent strikeout rate was just .4 points lower than the previous year. Yes, Villalona hit slightly better for average (.267; four points higher than 2008), but that was about the only improvement seen in Villalona's game in his transition from Augusta to San Jose. (To make matters worse, his .327 BABIP was 10 points higher than his Augusta BABIP, as the Cal League tend's to favor hitters.)

If Villalona could get this court issue resolved this year and somehow get a visa to get back in the United States as soon as next season, there might be some kind of future for Villalona in the Giants organization or at least in professional baseball. First off, at six-feet, three inches and 200 pounds (though he's probably closer to 220 from the last I've seen of him), he still has a lot of interesting tools, especially as a hitter. Remember, prior to the 2008 season, John Sickels ranked him as the No.1 prospect in the Giants system and graded him as a B+ prospect, and in 2009 he graded him as a B prospect and the 4th best prospect in the Giants system.

Of course, Sickels cut him some slack because he was a 17 year old playing in Single A (average hitter age is 21) and an 18 year old playing in High Single A (average hitters age is 22-23). He, and many other scouts and analysts (including MLB.com, which ranked him as the 48th best prospect going into 2009), excused his poor plate discipline because in their minds he was "still learning the game." (An understandable and valid argument by the way; to play and show as much power in Single A at an age where most American kids aren't even graduated out of high school yet is a testament to his pure talent.)

With two years of his career (at the soonest) lost though, Villalona doesn't have the youth to lean on anymore. And unfortunately for him, I don't think he is ever going to be able to develop and improve upon his plate patience issues (To put things in context, the average BB/K ratio for a hitter is around 0.50). If anything, he was a couple of years away from being decent in 2009. I can't imagine what the odds would be if he came back next year (and like I said, that's best case scenario for him).

In some sad way, Villalona is a classic case of a "prospect gone wrong." He came from a poor background from a rough part of the Dominican Republic where trouble has a tendency follow those with exuberant amounts of money. Perhaps he is just a target of those who want to partake in his wealth as he claims. But, we have seen this story with Latin American ballplayers before, with some turning out in favor of the player (in Juan Uribe's case) and some not (Ugueth Urbina).

If Villalona can get that visa, it'll be an interesting story. That being said, there will be boatloads of questions upon his arrival. Will his tools be as strong as they were when he signed as a 16 year old? How will his body type look? How has his athleticism been affected since being away from the game? What's his defense like? Can he still hit? Has his strike zone judgment improved in the time off? Or has it deteriorated even worse (if that's even remotely possible considering how poor it was to begin with)?

Of course, Giants fans and management just need to worry about Villalona coming back to the United States at all, and even that seems hard to believe. If he does find a way to the States and sees the field again in a Giants uniform, he'll have the chips stacked against him, that's for sure.

Villalona turning into a poor man's Wily Mo Pena would probably be an optimistic projection at this point.

Around the "Candlestick": Simmons Lists Giants, Top 50 Prospects, Panda in Sharks Jersey, Bautista Piece, Angel Villalona!

All right. Bored, and just been browsing around the net. So, I decided to shoot up some links of things I found on the net concerning Giants baseball. Some are creative; some are not. Give me a break. I can't focus with the Zags losing to the freaking Santa Clara Broncos. (Update: they won...thank you Kerry Keating for being the worst coach in the history of the WCC!)

Giants Are N0. 6 On Bill Simmons' Most Tortured Franchise List

Just saw this one this morning. Finally, Giants fans get some much due respect for being a tortured organization. I mean, we heard Red Sox fans moan for 86 years, and Cubs fans continually whine and get massive publicity for it (BTW they should lose their "Lovable Losers" title after the way they crucified Steve Bartman; blame Alex Gonzalez and you're crappy bullpen for the loss Cubs fans!). The Giants haven't won a title since moving to San Francisco for chrissakes! Why is there not a curse moniker for that? I'm sure Mad Dog would love one so he can have something concrete to vent his frustration at on his dying radio show on Sirius.

And to make matters worse, the Florida Marlins (I'm sure the state of Florida has forgotten about them...after all they're too fascinated with Tim Tebow and his "friends") have won two titles! (Ironically, they have beat the Giants in the playoffs in both their World Series runs in 1997 and 2003).

See what the Sports Guy says here:

You'd think a 66-year title drought, the Bonds/BALCO fallout, a borderline Level 1 loss in 2002 and having its first World Series home game in 27 years postponed by a devastating earthquake during batting practice of the first-ever Bay Area World Series would get the message out that, "Hey, we need to start including these guys in all future Tortured Sports Cities discussions." Can you be underrated/tortured? Apparently so.

Thanks Sports Guy. Giants nation salutes you.

Bumgarner and Posey Make MLB.com's 2010 Top 50 prospects

Awesome. Just awesome. I know, I could say more, but what else can you say. Giants fans have known this for a year, so it really comes as no surprise to us that Bumgarner finished 10th and Posey fourth on Chris Mayo of MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects for 2010. I really have only two beefs with the rankings:

1.) Bumgarner fell four spots from last year (he was the No. 6 prospect on last year's list). I know his fastball dropped in velocity in the second half last year, but this guy actually did well at the MAJOR LEAGUES last year in a short stint. Shouldn't that count for something?

2.) Why is Buster Posey's video only 15 seconds? Seriously, he's the number four prospect and all you can give him is 15 seconds, while the No. 49 prospect, the Dodgers' Ethan Martin gets a minutes and 23 seconds? Come on MLB Network!

Panda in a San Jose Sharks Jersey

My Spanish isn't spectacular, but I'm pretty sure the description on the Tweet photo says "Pablo Sandoval after visiting the San Jose Sharks' arena this Thursday." (They played the Blackhawks tonight).

See, three years of high school Spanish did teach me something. Also, I will say this...Sandoval looks better in a Sharks jersey than Jonathan Cheechoo in a Giants jersey.

An Introspective on Denny Bautista

What do I know about Bautista? Not much other than the fact that he's Pedro and Ramon Martinez's cousin. However, thanks to Give 'Em Stankeye for putting up a good piece that recalls the "baseball experts" ripping the Orioles a new one for trading him away to Kansas City for Jason Grimsely. Basically, they made Bautista sound like the next big thing.

How the times have changed Denny. How the times have changed.


Angel Villalona Strikes Out (awfully) in Minor League Game

Remember when Villalona was one of the top prospects in the Minors? Then he gained a tremendous amount of weight, was unable to tell the difference between a ball and strike, and involved himself in a murder case in the Dominican Republic. Has it reached Ugueth Urbina-status yet? No, but it will be tough for Villalona to come back after this latest incident, especially with other Giants in the system making tremendous progress while he is...well...not. Just watch the link and how he strikes out on three straight, bad pitches. Can you really see a guy make the Major Leagues with a plate approach like that?

John Shea jinx? I think you could say that...if there was such a thing. Maybe Giants fans can coin that term with a few more flops.

Sanchez's Surgery Should Be Final Straw For SF Giants GM Brian Sabean

From Bleacher Report

With this being the last year of GM Brian Sabean's contract, owner Bill Neukom is put in a very tough decision.

Does he stick with the GM who has been at the helm of the Giants' front office since 1997? Or does he go in a different route with somebody else calling the shots when it comes to personnel decisions?

As far as I'm concerned, everything Sabean has done (or has occurred as a result of his decisions in the past) after the All-Star break has showed why Neukom should go in a different direction next year when it comes on taking or declining Sabean's option.

First off, Sabean pulled the trigger on trading for Cleveland's Ryan Garko, who has done relatively nothing in his tenure in San Francisco as evidenced by his .233 batting average and only two home runs in 113 plate appearances as a Giant (It also should be noted that both his home runs came in the same game and at Coors Field).

Secondly, Edgar Renteria has been a tremendous, and classic Sabean-bust, which is only magnified by Juan Uribe's season, which may be his best offensive year since 2004 when he helped the Chicago White Sox to a World Series title.

Not only has Uribe been better than Renteria this year in almost every offensive category despite 98 less at-bats, but he also came seven million dollars cheaper.

Just imagine what the Giants could have done with an extra seven million dollars to spend had they not wasted it on Renteria.

Next, Angel Villalona, a highly prized prospect a couple of years ago that Sabean sold Giants fans on being the future of the Post-Bonds era, not only has tanked on the field (he had only a .267 average, .303 OBP, nine home runs and 42 RBI in 310 PA in Single-A San Jose this year), but now he is a suspect in a murder case in the Dominican Republic.

Villalona's future seems closer to Ugueth Urbina than Miguel Cabrera, and even then, at least Urbina had SOME time in the Major Leagues.

And lastly, Freddy Sanchez, who was traded for No. 2 pitching prospect Tim Alderson, may be shut down for the year after reports, via the Giants Web site, revealed his knee will need surgery.

If anything, Sanchez's impending knee surgery should be enough for Neukom to send Sabean packing. Everybody knew there were some questions with Sanchez's health before the trade deadline, but Sabean "examined" Sanchez and assured Giants fans he was healthy enough to make an impact during the August-September run.

Well...Sanchez, despite a solid debut, has barely made a dent on this Giants team. He has only played in 25 games, not exactly what Giants fans expected when Sabean traded him for Alderson.

To make matters worse, with Sanchez most likely not reaching the amount of plate appearances he needs to activate his 2010 option, the Giants will need to renegotiate with him on a contract next year.

Therefore, there is a possibility that Sanchez could be gone next season, and if that happens, the Giants basically lost their second-best pitcher in their minor league system for an injury-riddle player who barely played a half-a season.

That's the kind of thing Giants fans wanted to avoid this Trade Deadline. The San Francisco faithful didn't want another Ricky Ledee or Sidney Ponson half-season disaster.

And yet, here we are, with that situation a possibility again.

Overall, there has been a lot Sabean should be credited for in his tenure in San Francisco, especially recently. He has set down a solid foundation around pitchers like Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and position players like Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey (even though Posey can't seem to find the field since being called up).

However, the mistakes of Sabean have added up too much in the recent past, and this year is no exception. Some new energy is needed in the Giants front office to keep this team going in the right direction, and unfortunately, after almost 13 years at the helm, the Giants aren't going to get that if Sabean is still calling the shots.

Neukom. The decision is up to you. Do the right thing.

Madison Bumgarner: An "Untouchable" prospect as the Trade Deadline approaches

19-year-old pitching prospect Madison Bumgarner has been a stud at Single-A Augusta and Double-A Connecticut this season.

Madison Bumgarner is kicking butt and taking names in Double-A Connecticut. With a 7-1 record, a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 12 outings at the Double-A level, Bumgarner is living up to the hype that earned him No. 6 in MLB.com's Top 50 Prospect list.

Furthermore, if you live in Sacramento and have the Sacramento Bee, Bumgarner is the lead story on the Sports page. It's a pretty good article, and really explores the Giants' plan in terms of how they are developing the young, left-handed ace. So far, it seems as if the Giants are doing the right things with him. They don't need him to contribute right away (Simply because they have Lincecum and Cain rocking the ship as of this moment), and thus they are allowing him to pay his dues, while at the same time helping him gain the kind of confidence that will help him be successful when he makes the transition to the majors.

Even though you never know, Bumgarner is probably going nowhere with the trade deadline only eight days away (unlike other hyped guys like Clay Bucholz with the Red Sox). I know we can probably get something big in return should we deal him. It's not crazy to think with him as the main piece in a deal we could probably acquire a Matt Holliday from Oakland or even Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego. However, considering this is a franchise that traded away Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan away for A.J. Pierzynski, I'm kind of sick of trading away good players. I think Bumgarner can be something special, and I don't want to miss out on that for a guy that may only stay with us for less than half-a-season.

Therefore, judging by the hype surrounding this guy, and the promise he is showing in the minors, it is safe to say Bumgarner is "Mr. Untouchable" when it comes down to his status at the trade deadline. If you haven't seen him, google him right now. The kid is pretty darn good so far. Granted, I'm a little worried because he seems to have a lot of Andrew Miller in him in terms of pitching style (that's not good in my opinion by the way). That being said, he does have livelier stuff than Miller, and I think he's entering a situation that is less pressure-packed than what Miller went through in Florida (where he went from spot starter status on a contending Detroit team to third starter status on a rebuilding Marlins team, a very heavy burden to carry for a guy less than two years out of college).

All I can hope is Bumgarner continues to dominate at the Double-A level. I think he is due for a Fresno call up real soon, and if we are still in contention for a playoff spot, I believe that is where he should stay as well. A lot of people will point to David Price being called up with the Rays during their run to the postseason run in 2008, but Price was also a lot older than Bumgarner at this point in his career, so it was understandable why the Rays brought him up so quickly. 19-year-old kids don't fare well when the pressure is packed in September, and I don't want to scar this kid for life like Elijah Wood was scarred for life after having to let McCauley Caulkin fall off a cliff at the end of The Good Son (If I spoiled the ending for you, tough cookie. The movie has been out for about 20 years for chrissakes!)

I'm still debating on whether to trade Tim Alderson (who was actually rated higher than Bumgarner out of high school) and Angel Villalona at the deadline. They won't get as much value back as Bumgarner, and they are also very good prospects, but at the same time, this Giants team needs to upgrade. With Lincecum, Cain and possibly Sanchez (if he isn't traded by the deadline) anchoring the rotation for the next couple of years in my opinion, I don't think you need both Bumgarner and Alderson. Then again, this isn't a great trade market right now, and I don't want to trade Alderson and/or Villalona for a Nick Johnson.

Whatever we do, all I know is Bumgarner is staying in the Black and Orange. If he can continue to progress, and has a good Spring Training next year, I think a lot of Giants fans can look forward to a "Mr. Blonde-level" in terms of bad-assedness rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez (I'm assuming he won't be dealt), Zito, and Bumgarner.

I know Zito sucks (and yes he does suck, even though his crappiness is amplified by his seven-year, $126 million contract), but four out of five good starters isn't bad. Just think of Zito as Budd in "Kill Bill" (e.g. the out-of-place, out-of-shape dude with a mullet in an assassin group of bad ass, hot chicks).

Now...to solve that hitting problem.