Mixed Six: A Look at 2007 First Rounders Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson

As promised, here is the first piece on the 2007 Draft series. The first part unsurprisingly is on the Giants' first two picks in the draft: left handed pitcher Madison Bumgarner (who went 10th overall in the draft) and right handed pitcher Tim Alderson (who went 22nd overall). Both were high upside arms out of high school, and though they were projected to be a couple years away at the soonest from contributing at the Big League level, many Giants fans dreamed of rotation headlining Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner and Alderson for years to come.

After years of development in the minors though, the two pitchers have panned out in remarkably different ways. One is a World Series stud, the other hasn't played above Double-A. One was arguably the best pitcher last year in a rotation with not one or two but three All-Star pitchers, while the other one performed so poorly in 2010 that their team sent him from Double-A to High-A.

I think it's safe to say we all know who's who.

Let's take a deeper look though at their individual profiles though.



Madison Bumgarner: "The World Series Hero"

Bumgarner went 10th overall in the 2007 MLB Rule 4 Draft. At the time, there was some good arms coming out of the draft, as David Price went No. 1 overall and Jarrod Parker (formerly the Diamondbacks' top prospect) went in the slot before Bumgarner. At the time, Bumgarner was young and just out of high school, but scouts liked what he brought to the table as a big (six-foot, five inches, 227 pounds) left-handed pitcher with Top-of-the-rotation potential.

A lot of Giants fans though weren't exactly thrilled however with the selection of the pick. Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town was adamantly against the drafting of Bumgarner prior to draft day (as stated by OGC in his post about the Bumgarner selection), and even OGC himself had some choice things to say in his "disappointment" of Bumgarner going in the Giants' slot. Here is what he said about the pick:
 

"I was disapppointed by the selection of Madison Bumgarner. Not to the point of wanting to throw myself down the stairs, as DrB on MCC said he would if the Giants selected him, but I had been hoping to get some offensive help from the #10 pick. I was really hoping that Wieters would fall to us, but I guess that was wishful thinking. But there was a bunch of top offensive help available at #10, Beau Mills, Jason Heyward, Matt Dominguez, who were consensus top picks where you couldn't go wrong - in the post analysis - selecting one of them."

Furthermore, OGC also pointed out to Bumgarner's lack of breaking stuff as a bit of a red flag, especially considering Sabean said after draft day that they were planning to "fast track" him in the Giants system. Of course, OGC was realistic that he could develop one, especially since he was so young at the time. Here's what he said about Bumgarner developing his secondary pitches:

"Bumgarner doesn't have a curve or slider not because he could not master them, but because he just started pitching them just one year ago, because his father wouldn't allow him to. Well, now he will get professional training on the proper way to throw them, plus he can speak with Zito, Cain, and Lincecum about it because they all have a great curve ball, and probably with Lowry and Misch about their changeups. And he's only 17 (18 in August), so he still has some physical maturation coming, which should add a few MPH to his already good fastball plus with professional coaching, he should be able to master the curve and/or slider with a few years under his belt."

The issue though for most Giants fans at the time (OGC included) though was not really the fact that they picked Bumgarner, but rather that they picked Bumgarner when it was obvious that they needed to restock their system with position players. At the time, Dominguez and Heyward were available in the draft, and to some (if not most Giants fans), the common thought was that either of those guys would have brought more value because of the lack of position talent in the Giants system. As for Bumgarner, while he was a good pitcher, he would still be a No. 3 guy behind Lincecum and Cain and, at the time, would probably be a No. 3 or 4 guy depending on how Noah Lowry developed (which ended up being 3 because Lowry got hurt and his career fell off a cliff).

Despite the controversy with the selection, Bumgarner was ranked highly by baseball publications as Baseball America ranked him the No. 3 prospect in the Giants system before even playing a game. Bumgarner made good on the high praise and the Top-10 selection as he absolutely dominated the Sally. In 24 games and a 141.2 IP, he went 15-3 with a 1.46 ERA, 1.71 FIP, 0.93 WHIP and a 164 strikeouts. He showed impeccable command (his K/BB ratio was 7.81 and his BABIP was around average at .304), and his control was also very mature for a kid just out of high school (1.33 BB/9). Without a doubt, Bumgarner was dominating in every way in Low Single-A and it was safe to say the Giants had a lot to look forward to with the former Top-10 pick.

With such a dominating 2008 campaign with the Green Jackets, his stock rose considerably going into the 2009 season. Baseball America ranked him the No. 9 prospect overall, and a popular argument amongst prospect experts was whether he or Baltimore Orioles left-handed prospect Brian Matusz would have the better pitching career. Bumgarner started out the year in San Jose in High-A, but the league proved to be too easy for him as he dominated in just five starts. In 24.1 IP, he posted an ERA of 1.48, a FIP of 2.05, a WHIP of 0.89 and a K/BB ratio of 5.75. Though his strikeout numbers did decline a little (his K/9 rate in the 24.1 innings sample was 8.51, almost seven points down from the previous season), but considering the Cal League was a hitter's league, there wasn't too much concern about the initial dip in San Jose.

After five starts, the Giants moved Bumgarner up to Double-A with the Connecticut Defenders (the team moved to Richmond the following season). Bumgarner pitched a lot of innings (107) and posted good traditional numbers (1.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9-1 record) in the Eastern League, but there were some red flags raised during his 2009 campaign with the Defenders.

The biggest concern was his dip in dominance rate (K/9), as it fell to 5.80, an almost 10 point drop from the previous year. While he was still showing good control (his BB/9 was 2.42), the huge regression in K/9 rate from Augusta left him with a K/BB ratio (2.30) that looked a whole lot less impressive than the gaudy 7.81 ratio he put up in the Sally. Hence, a lot of questions started to get asked about Bumgarner's development. How was his velocity holding up? Was he developing his secondary pitches? Are hitters figuring him out? Is he going through some minor injury issues that fans and writers aren't aware of?

All those questions became amplified when the Giants called him up for an emergency spot start late in the 2009 season. Though Bumgarner pitched admirably in a 76 pitch start (he went 5.1 IP and allowed five hits, one walk and struck out four while only giving up two runs), the big alarm that went off was Bumgarner's dip in velocity. While reports said that he was hitting the mid-90's range in the minors, Bumgarner's fastball velocity averaged only 88.1 MPH in his first Major League appearance. Suddenly, many people began wondering if Bumgarner's stuff and velocity in the minors were exaggerated, simply to raise his stock as a prospect in the system. Management claimed though that the drop in velocity was a temporary thing, and that he was just suffering from fatigue after pitching so many innings in 2008 and 2009 as a teenager.

Unfortunately, come Spring Training in 2010, things did not start off well for Bumgarner. The velocity did not go up as expected, as Bumgarner was hitting the 87-89 MPH range on the radar guns and he also put up very uninspired numbers during the Spring as well, as he allowed five runs, eight and seven walks in seven innings pitched. His ERA hovered to 6.43 during Spring Training, his WHIP was a bloated 2.14, and the worst stat of all? He had zero strikeouts the entire Spring. (That's right...ZERO!)

The lackluster performance made the Giants go with Todd Wellemeyer in the fifth spot over Bumgarner, and instead, Bumgarner started the year in 2010 with the Fresno Grizzlies. Despite the humbling spring and drop in stock (he fell from No. 9 to No. 14 in BA's prospect rankings), he still managed to pitch well in the Pacific Coast League. He finished the Fresno campaign with a 7-1 record, 3.16 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.33 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 2.68. Furthermore, his velocity came back (he was back in the 90 MPH range by April) and his strikeouts per nine increased to 6.42 with the Grizzlies.

After Wellemeyer (predictably) flopped in the fifth spot in the rotation, Bumgarner got the call up to the Big League roster. Not only did Bumgarner have a great year overall during the regular season (7-6, 3.00 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.31 WHIP and 3.31 K/BB ratio), but he shined the most in the playoffs during the Giants' World Series run. In four playoff appearances, and 3 starts, Bumgarner went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and had 18 strikeouts and only five walks in 20.2 IP during the postseason. Bumgarner's real gem came in the World Series against the Rangers on the road in Game Four, as he pitched 8 shutout innings with six strikeouts and only two walks and three hits allowed in the winning effort that put the Giants up 3-1 in the series.

The following year in 2011, Bumgarner arguably was the best Giants starting pitcher in 2011, which is saying something considering they had a two-time Cy Young Winner (Lincecum) and two other All-Stars in the past few years (Cain and Vogelsong). Bumgarner pitched 204.1 innings, and finished with a 13-13 record, 3.21 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, and a 4.15 K/BB ratio. In comparison, Bumgarner's FIP was the best on the team, as was his tERA (3.12), xFIP (3.10) and SIERA (3.18). Additionally, his K/BB ratio was almost a point and a half better than the second closest Giants starting pitcher (Cain came in at second with a 2.84 K/BB ratio).

It's crazy to think how Bumgarner went from "mixed feelings" pick in 2007 to a pitcher on the rise on arguably one of the best starting staffs in baseball in 2012. Right now, the future is bright for Bumgarner, as he would be a No. 1 pitcher on most teams right now (seriously, Jonathan Sanchez is slotted to be the No. 2 starter in KC and he could be No. 1 with a good Spring). It'll be interesting to see how Bumgarner will do over a second straight full year, and if he can continue to be as dominating as he was last year, especially in the second half (Bumgarner was dominating June on, as he posted FIP numbers of 2.51, 2.74, 3.08, and 2.51 from June-October). My "gut" tells me he will continue the momentum, though I wouldn't be surprised to see a little regression simply because his year was so phenomenal in 2011.

Regression or not, one thing is for clear: the Giants made the right choice in the 10th slot in 2007.



Tim Alderson: "The Player Traded for Freddy Sanchez"

In 2009, when Alderson was traded for Freddy Sanchez in a July Trade Deadline deal, there was a bit of mixed feelings (mostly weighing toward the negative end) amongst Giants fans on the Web. Chris Quick said this of Alderson in a post on Bay City Ball after the trade went down:

"At first glance, I think it’s a steep price to pay for Sanchez. Injury issues aside, he’s a quality player that’s been worth between 3-4 wins these past four years. In the matter of the last few days the Giants have traded away two Top-10 pitching prospects from their system. Outside of Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler (who is still unsigned), the Giants probably don’t have another pitcher in their Top-10.

The difference between Sanchez and Juan Uribe over the remainder of the season probably varies between 0.5 – 1 win(s). The Giants fix a major hole on their team and do improve themselves. But I’m not sure I like the price that they paid.

Tentatively, I’d call this a Pirates win. Welcome to the team, Freddy."

After all, it did seem like a typical "panic" move by Sabes. Alderson was a Top-10 prospect in the Giants system and a first round pick, and many felt that the contribution Sanchez would have with the Giants wouldn't match the upside Alderson would bring to the Giants rotation in the future.

Two years later, it's obvious the Giants wound up on the better end of the deal, as Sanchez played a crucial role in the Giants World Series run, while Alderson has taken a nose dive as a prospect in the Pirates system.

Alderson was drafted in the 22nd slot in the 2007 draft as a young, tall, projectable arm out of Horizon High School in Arizona (he was a teammate of current Giants prospect Tommy Joseph, so he came from a nice high school program). At six-foot, six inches, Alderson had the physical tools of a No. 1 or No. 2 starting pitcher in the making, and scouts were very high about his potential as a professional pitcher. His scouting report on MiLB.com prior to draft day was positive, as scouts remarked that he had "plus, plus command" and that he displayed very good poise on the mound in the game they scouted (he struck out 13 against Bishop Gorman High School, a pretty good baseball program based out of Las Vegas). There were some concerns about his unorthodox delivery, but for the most part, scouts were pretty high on Alderson's upside, as stated in the summary section of his scouting report:

"With a unique delivery, pitching out of the stretch and unorthodox arm action, some teams may be wary. But Alderson has the chance to have three above-average pitches with outstanding command in a big, athletic package."

After signing, Alderson made a short appearance in the Arizona Rookie League in 2007, pitching in 3 games and a limited five inning stint. He made quite the impression, as he struck out 12, allowed four hits and no free passes in the small sample. The sterling scouting reports and impressive Rookie League debut earned Alderson some hype going into the 2008 season, as Baseball America ranked him at No. 84 in their Top-100 list.

While the Giants opted to have Bumgarner start his professional career in the Sally, they fast tracked Alderson to High-A as a 19-year-old, as he pitched 26 games and a 145.1 innings in the Cal League. Alderson put up great numbers for a teenager in a league where the average age of pitcher's at the time was 22.8 years old (so he was almost four years younger than the competition, which is a HUGE age difference). He went 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.64 FIP, and a K/BB ratio of  3.65. He wasn't a strikeout machine like his left-handed counterpart in Augusta (his K/9 was 7.68), but the solid control and command he displayed in his first full year of professional ball had a lot of Giants fans salivating about his potential. In fact, it was commonplace for many Giants fans and baseball analysts to compare Bumgarner and Alderson, and there was a wide contingent of Giants fans that preferred Alderson to Bumgarner at the time.

After the solid campaign in San Jose, Alderson's stock rose dramatically, as Baseball America ranked him the No. 45 prospect in their Top-100. Despite the solid campaign the previous year in San Jose, the Giants opted for him to start the year again in the Cal League, not eager to rush him to the challenges of the Eastern League just yet. Despite a drop in strikeout rate (his K/9 fell to 6.92), Alderson showed even better control in San Jose, as he posted a BB/9 of only 1.04 in a 26 inning sample.

Unfortunately, despite the improved control, Alderson proved to be a less dominant pitcher in his second year in the Cal League. His H/9 rose from 7.7 in 2008 to 10.7, and his ERA and FIP numbers rose to 4.15 and 4.12, respectively. Granted, there wasn't much panic from Giants fans or management because it was only a five start sample, but safe to say, there was some concern that perhaps Alderson didn't have that No. 1 upside as initially thought when drafted, and probably was more of a No. 3 or No. 2 starter at best (Fangraphs/Rotographs' Marc Hulet especially championed this notion).

Still, the Giants eventually promoted Alderson to Double-A Connecticut, and he was able to overcome the lackluster start and post solid numbers in his short campaign with the Defenders before being traded for Sanchez in late July. In 13 starts and 72.2 IP, Alderson posted an ERA of 3.47, a FIP of 3.53, a WHIP of 1.24 and a K/BB ratio of 3.29. But again, while the numbers were solid, Alderson continued to get batted around in the Eastern League, as his H/9 hovered at 9.4. So, while most of the numbers were nice, the fact that hitters were making consistent contact against him continued to worry Giants fans, and made people wonder if Alderson was projecting downward rather than upward as a prospect.

Since being traded to the Pirates, all the concerns and worries about Alderson came into fruition (though it came at the expense of another team, thank God). In 38.2 IP and seven starts in Double-A Altoona, Alderson finished off the 2009 season in mediocre fashion, as he posted an ERA of 4.66, a 4.62 FIP, a 1.34 WHIP, an a K/BB ratio of 1.38 (amplified by a drop in K/9 to 4.19 and rise BB/9 to 3.03). To make matters worse, Alderson was getting a little lucky in Altoona as his BABIP only hovered around .267. If his luck was a little different, it isn't out of the question to think that his 2009 Altoona numbers would have been a lot worse.

The next season for Alderson in Double-A proved to be a challenge and sparked his steep decline as a prospect in the Pirates system. He got batted around hard in 18 starts in Altoona, as his H/9 rose to a career high 11.2 and his ERA inflated to 5.62 in 89.2 IP. The stint in Double-A was so disheartening that the Pirates demoted Alderson to High-A to work on some things, but it didn't seem to help, as he finished the High-A campaign with a 6.98 ERA and 1.92 K/BB ratio in 38.1 IP. Of course, his FIP numbers suggest he wasn't as bad his ERA numbers said in High-A and Double-A (they were 4.47 and 4.82, respectively), but considering Alderson was back in High-A after pitching (and dominating) there as a 19 year old displayed how much of a step back Alderson had taken in such a short period of time.

Alderson last year played in Double-A Altoona for a third time and there was some hope that he could rebound from such a disastrous 2010 campaign. Unfortunately, the Pirates organization had soured on him,  moving him out of the rotation and into the bullpen. He only made one start the whole season and only pitched 74.1 innings in 2011. Despite the move to the bullpen, he didn't show much progress, as he finished the year with a 4.12 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.30 WHIP and a 2.11 K/BB ratio. In the span of less than three years, Alderson went from a prospect with a No. 2-3 ceiling to most likely a middle reliever. Hence, it isn't surprising that Alderson dropped from most Pirates prospects lists by 2012.

The story of Alderson's decline is an interesting one. In many ways, it makes Giants fans wonder: was Alderson's decline a product of his declining or overrated skills as a pitcher? Or is his decline more of an example of an organization's poor development of pitching talent? After all, Scott Barnes, another top pitching prospect in the Giants system who was traded near the deadline the same season as Alderson also went through a steep decline after he left the Giants system (though to be fair, he did bounce back a little in 2011).

In all likelihood, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. It was obvious that Alderson was proving to be less and less dominating as he moved up the system, but at the same time, the Giants organization is very efficient when it comes to developing pitching talent. Would Alderson have realized that No. 2 or No. 3 starter potential if he was still in the Giants system? Maybe not, but I don't think he would have gone through such a steep decline either if he was still in the same organization that drafted him.

At the end of the day though, while Bumgarner's story is an example of why organizations need to keep their top farm talent, Alderson is a poster boy for why losing top prospects isn't the end of the world. Remember, the Alderson for Sanchez trade was unpopular at the time amongst baseball circles, as many thought the Giants hadn't learned anything from previous deals like the A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano trade. However, if anything, the Alderson trade probably shows that management does know more about their prospects than we as Giants fans would like to give them credit for. Did Sabes and the Giants management team probably expect Alderson to decline so fast in the Pirates organization? Probably not. But, his skills and stats showed that he was declining and thus, expendable, and they made a deal where they could get a solid piece in return before his value depreciated to the point where he would be untrade-able (as he is now).

As a Giants fan, you can't find much argument with that approach at all.

Why Giants Fans Shouldn't Miss Tim Alderson (Too Much at Least)

This is not a defense of the Freddy Sanchez for Tim Alderson trade last July Trade Deadline. Even though I liked Sanchez at the time of the trade, I admit, it was a horrible transaction by Giants general manager Brian Sabean in retrospect.

First off, Sanchez wasn't going to make that much of a difference to the lineup. The Giants needed someone with plate patience or run-producing power and Sanchez unfortunately provided neither. (In reality, he was pretty much Juan Uribe with a better glove and more "gamer" status, but without Uribe's power).

Secondly, and most importantly, he was hurt when he arrived to San Francisco. In fact, he was beyond hurt: he was used and damaged goods and Sabean ignored it because he was desperate to make a trade and didn't want to get waylayed by Giants fans because he couldn't get a deal done by the Deadline. Here's how I figured the conversation transpired between Sanchez's physical examiner and Sabean on July 31.

Physical Examiner: We might have found some problems with Freddy, Mr. Sabean. It's possible there are some big-time shoulder issues as well as knee issues. If we were you, we wouldn't make this trade.


Sabean: Are you kidding? How bad is all that?


Physical Examiner: Well...he might need a couple of surgeries in the next couple of months.


Sabean: Just a couple? Osvaldo Fernandez had 30! Two is nothing! We'll take it.


Physical Examiner: But if Sanchez isn't healthy...he's not going to play very much down the stretch, let alone play well. Mr. Sabean, as a Doctor, I must say...


Sabean: Listen "Doctor," if that is your real name, you don't tell me what to do. I make the call on executive decisions you hear me? I didn't get us to the 2002 World Series for nothing. Now, are you going to pass Sanchez or not?


Physical Examiner: No.


Pause....


Sabean: What if I give you free season tickets in one of the MVP Boxes?


Physical Examiner: Is free booze included?


Sabean: You bet your butt it is.


Physical Examiner: He's healthy. Good luck with your run to the postseason Mr. Sabean!

So, as you can see, the trade was dumb. No one can excuse or pardon Sabean for making such a deal, especially when it was obvious Sanchez wasn't 100 percent.

That being said, I'm not exactly in the mindset that losing Alderson was the end of the world for Giants fans.

For starters, I don't know if Alderson can live up to his incredible hype.

It's one thing for Madison Bumgarner. Ever since Bumgarner was drafted there has been massive hype surrounding him (especially concerning whether or not he should be in the starting rotation to begin the season). There is good reason for Bumgarner's hype though: he for the most part has proven it on the field.

He proved it last Spring Training when he mowed down Juan Pierre and Manny Ramirez.

He proved it through his dominance of hitters in Single-A San Jose and Double-A Connecticut.

He proved it with a solid, though not spectacular, start and some innings of relief work with the Giants last season.

Thus, it is reasonable why their is such high expectations for Bumgarner.

As for Alderson though, it's a lot trickier. Ever since high school there has been incredible hype about the tall right-hander from Scottsdale, Arizona. In fact, according to SI.com's Matt Remsberg, Alderson was rated the 11th best high school prospect in 2007.

To make things more startling, according to Remsberg, he was ranked four slots higher than Bumgarner in 2007.

(I know...pessimistic Giants fans are slamming their heads against a wall saying "It's Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan all over again!" Please let me finish though before you guys lose consciousness.)

Why was Alderson such a highly-rated prospect? Two reasons really:

1.) Impeccable control (he walked only four batters his senior season).
2.) International success (he was a member of the Silver-Medal winning United States team at the IBAF World Junior Championships in 2007).

So, it's understandable to see why Alderson was such a hot commodity and why he was drafted by the Giants in the first round along with Bumgarner (though he came after Bumgarner in the draft).

That being said, despite those high credentials, it is debatable whether or not Alderson will succeed at the Major League level.

Now, I'm not throwing him in to Todd Van Poppel or Kurt Ainsworth level yet, but there were several warning signs concerning Alderson's future from his tenure in Single-A and Double-A last season.

1.) Low K/9 numbers and an increase in hits given up put him behind Bumgarner.

Alderson had a great rookie campaign in 2007 in the Arizona Rookie league where he struck out 12 batters, gave up only four hits and didn't allow a single walk in five innings pitched. (Those kinds of numbers, though rookie league, proved point number one from above: he had EXCELLENT control).

He followed up the solid rookie league performance with an even more sterling 2008 in San Jose. In 145.1 IP, Alderson struck out 124 batters and only gave up 125 hits and 34 walks. His rates were equally impressive: 7.68 K/9 rate, 3.65 K/BB ratio, 1.09 WHIP, 2.64 FIP.

However, in 2009, some interesting things began to happen: his strikeouts went down and he suddenly became a whole lot more hittable.

In 26 IP, Alderson gave up 31 hits and only struck out 20 batters, producing a strikeout rate of only 6.92 (almost one less from 2008). And, even though his walk rate and his K/BB ratio (6.67) remained stellar (1.04, courtesy of only 3 walks in 26 IP), his WHIP proved to be remarkedly higher from a year ago (1.31) as was his ERA and FIP (4.15 and 4.12, respectively).

Despite the shaky numbers in San Jose, it didn't stop the Giants from promoting him to Double-A Connecticut after five outings. Despite the vote of confidence from the Giants' brass, Alderson didn't do much better with the Defenders.

In 13 outings and 72.2 IP, Alderson continued to show great control (1.73 walk rate, 3.29 K/BB ratio) and not much else. His strikeout rate declined in Double-A to 5.70, and though his WHIP and FIP numbers improved (to 1.24 and 3.53), they certainly weren't "elite" by any measure.

To make matter worse, Alderson's left-handed counterpart, Bumgarner, was tearing up Double-A hitters and making a lot of noise with a 1.03 WHIP and 1.93 ERA. (Though it must be noted Bumgarner's 5.80 strikeout rate wasn't much better than Alderson and he had the exact same FIP as Alderson at 3.53).

So, the situation for Alderson was very obvious: Bumgarner was the lead horse and Alderson was the second-in-line (though, considering at the time how well Scott Barnes was pitching, Alderson was very capable of losing that "second-in-line" status). That made Alderson expendable to the Giants, despite his lofty status when they drafted him.

Just think about it: the Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito set in the rotation going into 2010. Furthermore, they have control of Linceucm until 2014, control of Cain until 2012, control of Sanchez until 2013, and have Zito under contract until at least 2013 (he has a club option for 2014). They're aren't going to let Lincecum or Cain go under any circumstances. Sanchez may go, but that won't happen until a couple of years (worst case scenario: after 2010 if he shows no promise...which I think isn't going to happen). As for Zito, he's untradeable just because his contract is so bad (who wants to pay $57.5 million for a number three pitcher from 2011-2013?)

Therefore, because of the loaded rotation currently, there really is only one spot at the moment in the Giants' rotation and that spot seems to belong to Bumgarner. If Alderson did remain in the Giants' system, when would he have gotten a chance? 2013? 2012 at the soonest? And by then, how great would his stuff be? Sure he's only 20-years-old, but do you trust a guy whose strikeout rate has declined rapidly in each prolongled place of play since 2007?

Which brings me to point number two concerning Alderson's questionable future:

2.) His funky pitching style.

Now I know the experts have said that there was nothing in his mechanics that would warrant worry. Obsessive Giants Compulsive remarked this about Alderson's delivery as well as his tendency to only pitch out of the stretch when he was drafted back in 2007:

Much has been made of #22 Tim Alderson's unusual delivery: he always pitches out of the stretch. As far as I'm concerned, I thought that's great because I don't know how many times I see a pitcher have to throw out of the stretch and suddenly loses his control. Alderson never has to worry about that. His coaches make their high school's pitchers throw out of the stretch in their freshman and sophomore seasons, but allow them to throw normally starting their junior year. Alderson continued doing it, I suppose because of his height, 6'7", which normally would be very hard to coordinate and thus why a lot of tall pitchers are wild and lack control, but since it was working for him already, why mess with success?

So after reading that, Giants fans should've felt fine, right? After all, there was a lot of worry about Lincecum's delivery when he was drafted out of Washington, and so far, he hasn't shown any signs of injury or long-term problems.

That being said, there is one key thing to remember: Alderson is not Lincecum, and if anything, though they are both funky, you can only say Lincecum's mechanics are sound. According to Chris O'Leary of Pitching Mechanics Analysis, Lincecum maximizes his velocity despite his small stature because of his excellent, though unusual-looking, mechanics. That being said, even with his solid mechanics, O'Leary still managed to find some problems with Lincecum's delivery:

Tim Lincecum's pitching mechanics are extremely efficient, which is why such a relatively small guy can throw as hard as he does. However, his delivery is a little max effort, his arm action is a bit borderline, and he shows signs of a timing problem, which is why I don't rate him as highly as I do Justin Verlander or Cliff Lee.

How does this relate to Alderson? Well, in comparison to Lincecum, Alderson has more physical ability than Lincecum: he's taller (6'6) and weighs more than Lincecum (who's 5'7, 170 pounds respectively). Therefore, Alderson physically has a much greater advantage than Lincecum, so there doesn't seem a need for Alderson to have an unusual delivery, because he already has the physical tools to throw hard. If anything, Alderson could have a run-of-the-mill delivery and he'd be fine, just because he's so physically gifted.

Here's the funny thing though: if anything, Alderson's mechanics and pitching style probably hinder his ability to throw hard. Just watch this outing against the A's in Minor League Spring Training last year: doesn't it look like he's just wasting a lot of motion? His body is jerking to one end, his arm is jerking to another. Granted, he strikes out Jemile Weeks, (mostly due to Alderson's great breaking ball), but you just feel that his delivery and style is just not efficient, unlike Lincecum, whom you feel is extremely efficient in pitching motion and delivery.

Furthermore, I can't get over the stretch thing. Granted, he has started to throw out of the windup now, but I just can't believe he didn't pitch out of the windup at all in high school. Sure, it produced great control, but how could you pitch seven innings out of the stretch entirely? It's one thing for a reliever to do it over an inning or two, but five or more? Additionally, he's only been pitching now out of the windup since breaking into pro ball. How's that going to effect his velocity in the future? Is he going to develop bad, injury producing habits because he's still unacquainted with pitching from the windup?

That being said, Alderson could have overcome all those questions, but to me, those issues were just too risky for the Giants management to ignore. Granted, there are some arm and mechanics issues with Bumgarner as well, but Bumgarner is worth taking a risk on because he has prolonged success wherever he has played. You can't really say the same for Alderson thus far.

Overall, you have to be sad that a guy like Alderson is gone from the Giants. There was a ton of potential there. But then again, was he going to live up to it? If anything, I could see Alderson's pitching career turn out like Alyssa Milano's film career.

For those who don't know, Milano had a whole lot of potential and buzz after her role in "Who's the Boss," but roles in some lousy movies (Poison Ivy 2,  Double Dragon) and her questionable acting skills, proved to be too much for her gorgeous looks to overcome. She had a decent movie (Fear) and a decent television show (Charmed), but for the most part, you can't help but feel she could have done more with her career considering how incredibly attractive she was.

The same would be true with Alderson: a whole lot of potential after a solid high school career and his first two years in pro ball, but a lousy situation that probably will produce bad seasons (it's bound to happen with him on the Pirates), and some questionable pitching skills and delivery issues will most likely prevent him from being anything truly great.

Like I said before, I'm not happy with the Sanchez trade, but considering it was Alderson and not Bumgarner, I can live with it (somewhat).

(By the way, did I really compare an incredibly gorgeous actress to a 6'6 minor league pitcher? You bet ya. Besides, I wanted to find a way to plug Poison Ivy 2 and show a picture of Milano.)

If It Meant Getting Victor Martinez, the Giants Should Part Ways with One of Their Top Prospects

After Matt Holliday was traded to St. Louis, I thought all the real impact players were off the market come the July 31 Trade Deadline.

Now though, it looks like there may be someone else who could be huge for the Giants. The only problem? Chances are, one of our top prospects will probably be lost to acquire this high-impact player by the Trade Deadline.

Look I love our prospects as much as the next Giants fan. I love Madison Bumgarner and the potential he could bring to the rotation next season. I really like Buster Posey, and was really impressed with what he did at Florida State last season. I am even fond of Tim Alderson, who isn't as good as Bumgarner in my mind, but still a very good prospect that could make the rotation nightmarish with Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez (potentially).

Yet when it comes down to it, I would trade any of them for a big-name, relatively young bat in a second. And according to San Francisco Chronicle Giants beat writer Henry Schulman, the Giants could acquire that kind of player in Victor Martinez.

According to Schulman's article today, the Indians have scouted the Giants farm system, which could be the first step in a possible deal for Martinez and perhaps even first baseman Ryan Garko. Garko is batting .285 with 11 home runs and 39 RBI ins 78 games, and would be a solid upgrade or platoon player with current Giants first baseman Travis Ishikawa.

However, the real gem of the deal is Martinez who is currently hitting .287 with 14 home runs, 64 RBI and a .833 OPS. Martinez immediately would be the cleanup threat the Giants have desperately missed all season, and he is still a relatively young player as well. He's only 30-years old, and his contract would hardly be a burden on this team (he currently makes $5.9 million this season, $2.1 million less than Edgar Renteria).

Furthermore, with Bengie Molina in the last year of his contract, the Giants would have an excellent upgrade at catcher next season. Catcher-of-the future Buster Posey would not have to be rushed up, and the Giants would still be contenders with the team revolving around a great rotation in Lincecum and Cain, and an excellent 3-4 hitting duo in Pablo Sandoval and Martinez.

Granted, that would be considering we don't have to give up Posey in the deal. With the Indians giving away a catcher in Martinez, it would make sense if they asked for a catcher in return, and Posey certainly would generate Indians GM Mark Shapiro's interest. However, considering the high draft pick the Giants used on Posey in last year's draft, I can't see Sabean immediately parting with him. After all, Martinez really has only one left year in his contract, and should Martinez walk after next season (that is if he has another solid year next year), the Giants would have no backup plan at catcher.

So to see the Giants throw in Posey on this deal would be ridiculous from Sabean's perspective. Who should the Giants give up then to acquire Martinez? As crazy as this sounds, I would be open to give up Alderson or even Bumgarner. I know what you're saying, "Bumgarner? Are you freaking nuts? You should throw yourself off a cliff for bringing up such an idea!"

Just hear me out though. Minor league arms are unpredictable. You never know what is going to happen with them, especially with a young guy out of high school like Bumgarner who is only 19. If Bumgarner was some guy out of college with three years of college dominance down his belt, I would say "Hey, the guy is only a step away from the majors." Yet in all honesty, even though he's dominated in Double-A this season, he's still probably a year away from making any real impact. I would want to see how he fares in Triple-A first before we let him make the jump to San Francisco, and even then, that jump probably won't come until midway next season at the soonest.

In my mind, the only reason to keep a hotshot prospect is if he would have the kind of immediate impact in the future that would make him impossible to deal. He needs to be a guy that if traded away, the team would be crippled in the future. With Lincecum and Cain, he would be the third best starter at-best for the Giants in the next couple of years. If Bumgarner was in line to be the No. 1 ace for the Giants next year or two years down the road, I would say "We got too much riding on this guy to trade him away." Yet we really don't. At best, Bumgarner would be a great third option, but the little-realized fact is there are always arms out there. You can certainly get a decent third or fourth starter on the market for a lot less than you think, and you can always build pitchers through the draft.

To put a positive spin on this situation for all those who don't want to give up antyhing, I doubt Sabean would give up both Alderson and Bumgarner. So if worse comes to worse, we would still have one good prospect left, which could be Alderson. That's the beauty of stacking prospects through the draft like the Giants have the past few years: The Giants can afford to give one away because they have other effective options that can make up the difference if one guys leaves.

Guys like Martinez though aren't as easy to come by. Either they don't turn out as good as advertised, or you are forced to grossly overpay for them. Martinez would give us one-and-a-half solid seasons with his bat at a relatively inexpensive price. Then, if he asks for too much money and leaves San Francisco, we could ease in Posey, who can gain valuable experience learning from a younger veteran like Martinez, who has been in this league for quite a while now.

In addition, Martinez is a great chemistry guy, which would benefit this Giants team, which already has great chemistry to begin with. Can you imagine the impact Martinez would have on the younger stars like Sandoval? Can you imagine him chopping it up with Uribe on the bench? He not only would make the Giants better with his offensive skills, but he would keep this Giants team at ease, especially now where it seems the pressure of the second-half has seemed to have its effect on this relatively young team.

In my mind, there are no minuses with getting Martinez, even if it comes at the expense of somebody as prized as Bumgarner. The Giants getting Martinez would be like Maggie Gyllenhal replacing Katie Holmes in The Dark Knight. Katie Holmes is more attractive, but Gyllenhal is the more proven actress, and she still is relatively comparable with Holmes in a lot of physical categories other than the fact Gyllenhall's face makes her look like she hasn't slept in three weeks (Holmes is still more attractive in the end, but even then, that is starting to go away as Tom Cruise sucks the life out of her).

Bumgarner is like Holmes. The upside is there, but Bumgarner hasn't proven it at the next level yet. He has only thrived against weaker competition, much like Holmes thrived with lesser actors , actresses and directors in films like Disturbing Behavior and The Gift. Granted, I love Bumgarner and think he could be a great pitcher, but there are no guarantees with him. He could be the next Lincecum, be he could also be the next Kurt Ainsworth as well.

It's not like we're getting an old guy past his prime like Nick Johnson or Jermaine Dye. If that was the case, I would be knocking my head against a wall knowing that we just gave up a guy two years away from perhaps hitting it big for a guy who could be out of the league in the same time span. Martinez is a player that is just hitting his groove, and would be more than just a rent-a-player as well like Holliday would have been this season.

If this deal has any clout, the Giants should go for it, regardless of how much they "value" Bumgarner or Alderson.

After all, you can't put a value on a guy who can create different handshakes for every individual player on the roster.

Madison Bumgarner: An "Untouchable" prospect as the Trade Deadline approaches

19-year-old pitching prospect Madison Bumgarner has been a stud at Single-A Augusta and Double-A Connecticut this season.

Madison Bumgarner is kicking butt and taking names in Double-A Connecticut. With a 7-1 record, a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 12 outings at the Double-A level, Bumgarner is living up to the hype that earned him No. 6 in MLB.com's Top 50 Prospect list.

Furthermore, if you live in Sacramento and have the Sacramento Bee, Bumgarner is the lead story on the Sports page. It's a pretty good article, and really explores the Giants' plan in terms of how they are developing the young, left-handed ace. So far, it seems as if the Giants are doing the right things with him. They don't need him to contribute right away (Simply because they have Lincecum and Cain rocking the ship as of this moment), and thus they are allowing him to pay his dues, while at the same time helping him gain the kind of confidence that will help him be successful when he makes the transition to the majors.

Even though you never know, Bumgarner is probably going nowhere with the trade deadline only eight days away (unlike other hyped guys like Clay Bucholz with the Red Sox). I know we can probably get something big in return should we deal him. It's not crazy to think with him as the main piece in a deal we could probably acquire a Matt Holliday from Oakland or even Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego. However, considering this is a franchise that traded away Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan away for A.J. Pierzynski, I'm kind of sick of trading away good players. I think Bumgarner can be something special, and I don't want to miss out on that for a guy that may only stay with us for less than half-a-season.

Therefore, judging by the hype surrounding this guy, and the promise he is showing in the minors, it is safe to say Bumgarner is "Mr. Untouchable" when it comes down to his status at the trade deadline. If you haven't seen him, google him right now. The kid is pretty darn good so far. Granted, I'm a little worried because he seems to have a lot of Andrew Miller in him in terms of pitching style (that's not good in my opinion by the way). That being said, he does have livelier stuff than Miller, and I think he's entering a situation that is less pressure-packed than what Miller went through in Florida (where he went from spot starter status on a contending Detroit team to third starter status on a rebuilding Marlins team, a very heavy burden to carry for a guy less than two years out of college).

All I can hope is Bumgarner continues to dominate at the Double-A level. I think he is due for a Fresno call up real soon, and if we are still in contention for a playoff spot, I believe that is where he should stay as well. A lot of people will point to David Price being called up with the Rays during their run to the postseason run in 2008, but Price was also a lot older than Bumgarner at this point in his career, so it was understandable why the Rays brought him up so quickly. 19-year-old kids don't fare well when the pressure is packed in September, and I don't want to scar this kid for life like Elijah Wood was scarred for life after having to let McCauley Caulkin fall off a cliff at the end of The Good Son (If I spoiled the ending for you, tough cookie. The movie has been out for about 20 years for chrissakes!)

I'm still debating on whether to trade Tim Alderson (who was actually rated higher than Bumgarner out of high school) and Angel Villalona at the deadline. They won't get as much value back as Bumgarner, and they are also very good prospects, but at the same time, this Giants team needs to upgrade. With Lincecum, Cain and possibly Sanchez (if he isn't traded by the deadline) anchoring the rotation for the next couple of years in my opinion, I don't think you need both Bumgarner and Alderson. Then again, this isn't a great trade market right now, and I don't want to trade Alderson and/or Villalona for a Nick Johnson.

Whatever we do, all I know is Bumgarner is staying in the Black and Orange. If he can continue to progress, and has a good Spring Training next year, I think a lot of Giants fans can look forward to a "Mr. Blonde-level" in terms of bad-assedness rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez (I'm assuming he won't be dealt), Zito, and Bumgarner.

I know Zito sucks (and yes he does suck, even though his crappiness is amplified by his seven-year, $126 million contract), but four out of five good starters isn't bad. Just think of Zito as Budd in "Kill Bill" (e.g. the out-of-place, out-of-shape dude with a mullet in an assassin group of bad ass, hot chicks).

Now...to solve that hitting problem.