OTF MLB Draft Peek: LHP Brian Johnson and RHP Jake Barrett

Though we are still months away, it's always a good time to be looking at potential candidates in the upcoming MLB Draft. With the college baseball season starting to gain steam, a lot of Draft and Prospect blogs and sites out there are already coming out with mock drafts. I decided to take a look at two college arms who were projected to go in the Giants slot at No. 20. They are pitchers Brian Johnson and Jake Barrett, who come from established college powerhouses Florida and Arizona State, respectively.


Brian Johnson, Left-Handed Pitcher, University of Florida



Why You Should Know About Johnson:

Through The Fence has Johnson going at No. 20 in their latest mock draft, and safe to say, Johnson is an intriguing arm who could have a lot of versatility as a prospect. For starters, Johnson is a two-way player for the Gators who also plays first base in addition to pitching. While he has produced solid numbers at the plate for the Gators over his collegiate career (he posted a .307/.381/.464 slash last season with five home runs in 192 at-bats last season and this year his slash is .283/.316/.453 with two home runs), he holds a lot more value in this draft as a pitcher. Last year, he made 15 starts and 16 appearances for the Gators and posted an 8-3 record with a 3.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. This season, Johnson has gotten off to a good start, as he is 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA after six starts.

Johnson's main strength as a pitcher is his control and command. Last year, he posted a K/BB ratio of 4.8 and a walk rate of 1.69. This year, his plus tools haven't missed a beat, as his K/BB ratio currently sits at four and he has only allowed seven free passes in 31.2 innings pitched. Johnson isn't a strikeout artist by any means, as his K/9 was 8.13 last year and 8.08 this year, but with his control, the strikeout numbers may be good enough for him to be a solid Major League starting pitcher.

The main weakness with Johnson though is that he has proved to be hittable in his collegiate career. Last year, he had a hits allowed per nine innings of 8.81 and this season has proved to be similar, as his H/9 rate currently sits at 8.08 (the same as his K/9). While he was able to keep the ball in the park last year (he only gave up four home runs all of last year), this year, his H/9 rate has hurt him more, as he leads the Gators pitching staff in home runs allowed with five (already one more than his entire total from last year). Granted, with the move from metal to wood bats, one can imagine that Johnson will be able to keep the ball in the park a little better as a professional. That being said, how well Johnson will be able to induce groundballs will be the key to whether or not he will be successful as a professional pitcher.

Johnson sports a three pitch arsenal with a fastball that sits in the low 90's, a changeup and a slider that projects to be a plus pitch at the next level, according to TTF writer Dan Kirby. At six-foot, four inches and 235 pounds, Johnson has a big, impressive frame, and Kirby noted that he has a great mound presence and an advanced feel for pitching. Last summer, he also gained valuable experience playing for the USA Collegiate Team, though he was mostly lauded for his performance at the plate (he did hit three home runs, including the game winner against Japan).

There are some concerns that come with Johnson as a potential pick, with the issues mostly centering on hitters ability to make contact off him and a head injury he suffered from an errant throw by catcher Mike Zunino during a game against Georgia last season. Nonetheless, with his impeccable command and versatility as a two way player, Johnson could be an intriguing pick for the Giants should he be available at the 20th slot in this year's draft.



Jake Barrett, Right-Handed Pitcher, Arizona State University



Why You Should Know About Barrett:

Selected 99th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2009 draft, Barrett is a polished college arm that was projected to go in the Giants slot according to Pine Tar Press writer Ty Youngfelt. Much like Johnson, Barrett sports solid command and tools as a pitcher, and could help stock a Giants system that is thin on pitching after numerous trades (Tim Alderson, Scott Barnes, Zack Wheeler, Henry Sosa) and graduations (Madison Bumgarner, Dan Runzler).

Barrett  has solid tools as a pitcher, as he sports a fastball that sits in the 90-94 MPH range along with a curveball and splitter that have above average potential, according to MLB Draft Countdown. MLBDC was particularly high about Barrett entering this season, as they noted this in their profile on him last June:

"Toronto was so high on him back in 2009 because he had a big-league body (6’3″, 225 lbs), a good fastball (90-94 mph) and two pitches (curveball and splitter) with above-average potential...He showed great poise stepping into a very talented bullpen during his freshman year, pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 28 outings and striking out 43 batters in 29.1 innings...

This year, Barrett made the jump to the rotation and found instant success. His first start of the season saw him toss six-innings of shutout ball, giving up only three hits while striking out six. He finished the season with a 7-4 record, a 4.14 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 76 innings. He tossed one complete-game shutout against Cal late in the season....Barrett is going to be one of the most big-league ready of any of the college pitchers in the 2012 class, making him a perfect fit."

So far this season, the Sun Devils have regulated Barrett back to the bullpen, as he has taken over the role as the team's primary closer. While the change in roles certainly hasn't helped his stock, he has relished in the role, striking out 14 batters and allowing only 2 walks in 11.2 innings pitched this year. He also has two saves and is posting a 2.31 ERA after nine appearances to begin the 2012 collegiate season.

Much like Johnson, hitters have been able to make contact against Barrett at a decent rate over his amateur career. Last year, he posted a H/9 percentage of 8.88 and this year he has allowed 8 hits in his 11.2 innings of work. The high hit rates haven't hurt him as much, as he has kept the ball in the park as evidenced by his 0.36 HR/9 rate last year, and one home run this season. That being said, much like Johnson, how well he will be able to induce groundballs will be key to his development as a professional pitcher, especially since his control isn't as solid as Johnson's (he posted a BB/9 of 2.49 last year).

If he stays as a reliever this year, then I highly doubt the Giants will pick up Barrett at the 20th slot (Youngfelt made his Mock Draft in February before the college season started and I assume he thought Barrett was going to stay in the rotation). That being said, if Barrett somehow make the transition back to the rotation this year, then he could be a viable pick at the 20th slot. There is no doubt about his tools, and in limited innings of work, he can prove to be a dominant pitcher who can strike out hitters in bunches. Furthermore, at six-foot, three inches and 230 pounds, he has a big solid frame that projects well for the future. However, it's obvious stamina is an issue for him, as evidenced by his role change this year. Even if he pitches the whole year in the bullpen, Barrett could still have a future as a starting pitcher as professional, but the Giants and Barrett himself are going to have to work on his conditioning in order for him to be able to log a lot of innings as a starter over the course of a full professional season.

OTF Top 30: No. 16-20; Oropesa, Kickham, Rosin, Parker, Dominguez

Okay, after a few off-the-road posts, I decided to get back to the rankings. Let's take a look at the 16th-20th prospects on the list. As you can see, the quality is dropping off a little bit, as we're hitting the lower end C+ and middle C range in terms of prospects. Nonetheless, there is some upside with some of these guys, it's just that they come with a lot of warts that prevent me from going higher on them. Of course, a bounce back year, and these guys could gain in their grades, and that is certainly possible with all five of these guys.


No. 16: Ricky Oropesa, First Base

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Starting first baseman; at worst, pinch hitter off the bench.

Summary: A third round pick by the Giants in the 2011 draft, Oropesa has some big upside as a potential power threat, but carries a size-able amount of risk. A physical specimen at six-foot, three inches and 225 pounds, Oropesa has the look and some of the plus tools of a future home-run mashing first baseman. He hit 40 home runs total in his career at USC and posted a career slugging of .596 and OPS of 1.007 as a collegian. Furthermore, he has had moments where he had just wowed scouts in person, with his most eye-popping feat being a home run he absolutely crushed off of UCLA's Gerrit Cole, the eventual No. 1 pick in last year's draft.

And yet, despite the power and solid, Big-League frame, Oropesa for the most part comes off as a bit of a one-trick pony. The scouting reports on his defense are average at best, he doesn't sport a lot of speed on the basepaths or in the field (pretty much limiting him to first base or a corner outfield position), and he isn't expected to hit for much average as a professional either. Yes, his career collegiate batting average is .331, but he only posted a contact rate of 77 percent as a collegian, and in 2010 in the Cape Cod, he only hit .222 in 153 at-bats with 52 strikeouts to boot.

For better or worse, a lot of Oropesa's stock and projection as a prospect weighs on his ability to hit for power as a professional. Hence, the amount of risk weighing on that one tool really prevents me from thinking he's a Top-15 prospect in the Giants system at this point (and he didn't sign in time to get any time in Rookie Ball or the Northwest League, so that also hurt his rating since he hasn't been exposed to professional pitching yet). That being said, even though he had a down year his junior year at USC (he only hit 7 home runs after belting 13 and 20 his freshman and sophomore seasons, respectively, though I imagine the change in bats had something to do with the regression in power numbers), he did hit a league-high seven home runs in the Cape, so Oropesa certainly has the ability to hit for power with wooden bats.


What to Expect in 2012: Oropesa will always be susceptible to strikeouts because of his long, uppercut swing. That being said, he has a good eye at the plate (career 0.59 BB/K ratio, with it being 0.65 and 0.63 the past two years at USC) and that could make up for the amount of whiffs Giants fans will see in the minors from him. He definitely has Carlos Pena-esque potential, as it seems like his power is legitimate and he could post good OBP numbers that will make up for the low averages (I don't see Oropesa projecting to be more than a .250 hitter in the Majors). Of course, we have seen offensive-heavy collegiate prospects flame out before (Eddy Martinez-Esteve being the biggest recent example), but Oropesa does have some good ceiling, and if he can mash home runs on a consistent basis that are in a similar mold to the one he rocked off Cole in college, then he could make some noise in the Giants system. It is likely that the Giants will take a slower route with him, like power hitting third base prospect Chris Dominguez, and start him off in Augusta. However, he could start off the year in San Jose if he makes an impressive enough impression on the Giants brass this Spring (though with Angel Villalona starting the year in San Jose, that is probably unlikely).


No. 17: Mike Kickham, Left-handed pitcher

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: No. 3-5 starting pitcher

Summary: Mike Kickham entered the Giants as somewhat of a sleeper prospect after being drafted in the 6th round in the 2010 MLB Draft. A polished college pitcher from Missouri State, Kickham has the size and frame of a starting pitcher with Major League potential. Kickham made a lot of noise in the Summer Collegiate League circuit after having a great campaign in the MINK League (Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas College summer league) where he went 3-0 with a 0.29 ERA in 24 innings of work. He also struck out 42 batters and only allowed 7 walks for the Sedalia Bombers that summer (good for a K/BB ratio of six). Though his summer in the MINK was cut short due to the Giants drafting him in the sixth round, it was a nice campaign that got Kickham on many prospect experts' radar.

While Kickham's traditional numbers didn't impress in college (he posted a 4-9 record with a 5.25 ERA and 1.36 WHIP), he did show solid command (3.43 K/BB ratio) and ability to rack up strikeouts (9.66 K/9) in 96 innings pitched his sophomore year with the Bears. He did prove to be hittable at times (9.47 H/9), but for the most part, sans the ERA and W-L record, Kickham did have a lot going for him in his last year as a collegian.

In his first full professional season in the Sally, the same problems seemed to hound Kickham in Augusta. He didn't post a great W-L record (not totally his fault, since the Green Jackets were one of the worst offensive teams in the Giants system and the Sally is tough on hitters) and he still allowed a lot of hits (9.0 H/9) in 111.2 innings pitched. However, he transitioned his impeccable command to Single-A (2.78 K/BB ratio), and got better as the year progressed. Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town said this about Kickham in his Top 50 rankings profile (where Kickham also ranked No. 17):

"Mike Kickham continued a pattern from college of posting peripheral numbers that look much better than his ERA. What's encouraging about Kickham's performance for Augusta is he got progressively stronger as the season went along. Over his last 10 starts, he went 4-5, 3.25, 55.1 IP, 13 BB, 40 K, GO/AO=2.36. He really turned it on over his last 6 starts starting August 5: 3-3, 2.23, 36.3 IP, 5 BB, 25 K."

Kickham was a bit old for the Sally at 22, but he has all the tools you would want from a starting pitcher. He has an enticing frame at six-foot, four-inches and a 190 pounds, and his fastball sits in the 92-94 MPH range according to reports. Also, Kickham sports a curve ball, slider and a changeup, so his four pitch repertoire bodes well for his future as a starting pitcher.

What to Expect in 2012: Kickham most likely will start the year in San Jose, which will be a challenge for him considering the hitter-friendly environments of the California League. Kickham does induce a lot of groundballs (thanks to his breaking pitches), but how he avoids contact will be a big factor for him in terms of whether her progresses or regresses as a prospect in High-A. His strikeouts per nine numbers were solid last year (8.3), but they weren't spectacular by any stretch. Kickham's strong finish last year provides a lot of hope for the future, and with his frame, there is hope that he can gain more velocity as he fills out into his body (which hopefully will help his ability to strike batters). Overall, there is a lot to like about Kickham, and I think he has more upside than an Eric Surkamp, who had amazing command and strikeout ability, but lackluster tools. That being said, Surkamp dominated in the Cal League, and Kickham needs to do the same in 2012 if he wants to really gain steam as a prospect in the Giants system.


No. 18: Seth Rosin, right-handed pitcher

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: No. 4-5 starting pitcher; most likely a bullpen arm, maybe a setup guy

Summary: Another former Green Jacket, Rosin is a powerful right handed arm that struck out guys in bunches in the Sally last season. Much like Kickham, Rosin entered the draft as a polished college arm out of the University of Minnesota. In his last year with the Golden Gophers, the six-foot, five-inch right hander went 9-4 with a 4.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 95 strikeouts in 103 innings pitched.

Like Kickham, the ERA numbers didn't impress, but Rosin's excellent command in college (7.92 K/BB ratio) prompted the Giants take him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. After striking out 9 batters and allowing 9 hits in an 11 inning-stint in Salem Keizer in 2010, Rosin had a good year in his first full professional season in Augusta. He appeared in 39 games and made 10 starts with the Green Jackets, pitching 89 innings total in 2011. Despite the inconsistency in roles, he still posted good numbers, as he finished the year with a 3.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 3.10.

As evidenced by him striking out 95 batters in 89 innings, his ability to strike batters out makes Rosin an intriguing prospect. He sports a 92-94 MPH fastball, a a 72-76 MPH curveball and a changeup that sits in the 81-84 MPH, according to a scouting report by John Klima of the Baseball Prospect report. While his curve ball and changeup still need a lot of work, his lively fastball and impeccable command should carry him as a prospect as he moves up in the Giants system.

He has a big frame, but at 235 pounds, his size probably projects him to be more of a bullpen arm rather than a rotation guy. I just don't think he will have the stamina to pitch 150 plus innings in his professional career. Furthermore, his three pitch repertoire also limits his potential to be a consistent play in the rotation. That being said, if he can get into better shape and develop his pitches, he could have end of the rotation or spot-starter potential.

What to Expect in 2012: Rosin will join Green Jacket teammate Kickham in San Jose, most likely starting in the bullpen (though it is possible that he could get an end of the rotation spot). Rosin is a big, powerful arm who has great stuff and even better command. Much like Kickham, he's a bit of an older prospect, but he has held his own as a professional thus far. The Cal League will be a challenge for him, but his command is a bit better than Kickham's at this point, so the transition should be less arduous for Rosin than Kickham. It'll be interesting to see what the Giants do with Rosin (either make him a starter or reliever), but either way, he has the tools to be a player in the Giants pitching staff in a couple of years.


No. 19: Jarrett Parker, Outfielder

Overall Grade: C
Projection: Utility outfielder; maybe a Major League backup

Summary: Parker came into the Giants system with some lofty hype after posting a .333/.428/.593 slash with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 243 at-bats in his final season at the University of Virginia in 2010. The Giants selected the polished, athletic collegian in the second round of the 2010 draft. The selection of Parker, along with first round pick Gary Brown, showed the Giants commitment to acquiring more position prospects who could move quickly in the minor leagues.

Much like Brown, Parker started his first full season in San Jose. Unlike Brown though, Parker struggled in his first year, though his numbers weren't terrible by any means. Parker did flash a lot of speed in his first year, as he stole 20 bases in 25 attempts, and he did display a good eye at the plate, as evidenced by his .360 OBP and 13 percent walk percentage. However, Parker struggled to put the bat on the ball consistently in High-A ball, as he struck out 144 times (a 25.2 percent rate) and posted a contact rate of 70.4 percent.

Hitting for average as a professional may be a struggle for Parker (even in college his contact rate was under 80 percent), and that was evidenced by his .253 average in San Jose. That being said, his plate approach and ability to get on base could maximize his value, especially considering his skill on the basepaths. In terms of power, he did sport some pop at the University of Virginia (26 home runs combined his last two years with the Cavs), and in his first year in San Jose, as evidenced by his 13 home runs and 33 percent extra base hit percentage. His power probably projects more as gap to gap power rather than pure home run power, but with his speed, the ability to hit the ball to the gaps will only maximize his value as a prospect.

Defensively, Parker has been graded as a plus defender, as Jonathan Mayo in his 2010 Draft Day scouting report of Parker said that he had plus defender skills and range to be a good center fielder (though he did note that he had below average arm strength). Statistically though, Parker will have to work on some things, as he did commit 10 errors and posted sub-2 range factors at every position he played in 2011 (though he may have been playing out of position in San Jose, as he mostly played right with Brown in center).

What to Expect in 2012: Parker's stock took a big hit in 2011, though to be honest, he's kind of been on a bit of a downward trend since his phenomenal 2009 where his team bested a Stephen Strasburg-led San Diego State team in the NCAA Regionals (he was rated as the top prospect going into the Cape Cod in 2009 and he struggled in the Cape). Parker will probably begin the year in San Jose again, though that might not be a bad thing, for he will probably play more at his natural position of center field and he could use some more time to hone his approach at the plate and cut down on the strikeouts. Overall, Parker is a great athlete and baserunner, and his careful eye at the plate should produce .340-plus OBPs wherever he should go in the Giants system. If he gets off to a hot start in his second year in the Cal League, it wouldn't be surprising to see him join classmate Brown at Double-A Richmond at some point in 2012. That being said, the Giants will need to see significant progress from Parker in San Jose before they rush him up to Double-A.


No. 20: Chris Dominguez, Third Base

Overall Grade: C
Projection: Utility corner infielder; could be a career minor league player if approach doesn't improve

Summary: A 3rd round pick by the Giants in the 2009 draft, Dominguez came in with some high expectations after mashing at Louisville in college. He was one of the best hitters in the Big East, leading the conference in batting average his last two seasons, while also displaying considerable power as a collegian (he hit 46 home runs combined his last two years, and also posted extra base hit percentages of 39.6 and 43.8 percent his junior and senior years, respectively). Hence, the Giants figured Dominguez would be a fast-moving prospect in their system after playing four years with the Cardinals.

However, Dominguez  moved slowly in the Giants system, starting in Augusta his first full year in 2010 (at 23 years old, he was old for the league). While he did flash some home run power potential (he hit 21 home runs in 608 plate appearances), he struggled with pitch recognition and plate discipline with the Green Jackets. Mike Newman of Fangraphs and Scouting the Sally said this about Dominguez in his scouting report following the 2010 season:

"After watching him play, I referred back to a scouting report on Dominguez by Frankie Piliere back in 2008 to find little had changed in the two years since that report was written. Dominguez seemed like the same player he was as a junior in college which leaves me questioning his ability to adjust at a more advanced age than the average “Sally” prospect."

Newman noted his plate discipline issues, especially when he saw breaking pitches. Newman said that Dominguez had "significant problems adjusting to breaking pitches; Even below average breaking balls gave him fits." Despite these issue, with his power, size and arm strength, a lot of experts out there were still high on Dominguez after the 2010 season despite his advanced age for the level.

Dominguez made the transition to San Jose in 2011, and predictably (considering the hitter-friendly confines), he did well in the Cal League, posting a slash of .291/.337/.465 with an .802 OPS and 11 home runs in 279 plate appearances. The strong start in San Jose prompted the Giants to promote Dominguez to Richmond, and he got off to a fast start (he was named Eastern League player of the week after hitting .458 with a home run, seven doubles, a triple and eight RBI during the week ending June 26th). However, he struggled as EL pitchers adjusted to him, as he finished the year with a slash of .244/.272/.403 with a .675 OPS and seven home runs in 313 plate appearances in his tenure with the Flying Squirrels.

Tools wise, Dominguez may be the most impressive third base prospect in the Giants system. His power and arm are rated as plus tools by scouts, and at six-foot, three inches and 215 pounds, Dominguez has a big frame and some decent athleticism for his size (though defensively his range is graded as below average). His plate approach seems to be the key to whether or not he will become a future Major League player, as he is known for posting a lot of strikeouts with little walks to counter them (he has a career BB/K ratio of 0.21). Even if he does have "Major-League" power, many wonder if Dominguez will make enough contact as a professional (career minor league contact rate of 74 percent) to ever make use of it.

What to Expect for 2012: At 25 years old, Dominguez is one year away from his "peak" year. So far, he has flashed some promising signs (his San Jose campaign, 21 home runs in the Sally, his fast start in Richmond), but for the most part, the negatives of his game (lackluster plate approach, below-average defensive skills, older age for levels played) have outweighed the positives in my mind. Tools-wise, as stated before, he may be better than any other third base prospect in the Giants system (and I'm including Conor Gillaspie). However, I just don't know if he has the plate discipline to adjust to better pitching. His BB/K ratio was an atrocious 0.12 in Richmond last year, and his contact rate was also sub-average at 74 percent. To me, that isn't the sign of a replacement level Major League player, let alone a Major League starting one. Dominguez most likely will start again at Double-A to improve his approach, but he will need to make major strides in his second year in the Eastern League. If he can improve and be more patient at the plate, he could salvage his status a little bit, but I would say at his age, the chips are heavily stacked against him.

Prospect Highlight: Wendell Fairley, OF

With the recent news of former No. 1 overall pick Matt Bush being involved in another alcohol-induced incident, it got me thinking "Who are some high round picks in the Giants system that have really fallen off the past couple of seasons?" The two names that came to mind were Wendell Fairley and Michael Main (whom I'll be covering in another post). Bush has had serious makeup problems since he was drafted, and to be honest, while he has flashed good numbers as a converted pitcher (he used to play shortstop, but hit so poorly the Padres decided to switch him positions), I think his makeup problems (specifically alcohol issues) will prevent him from reaching even a modicum of his potential.

(On a side note: I don't understand why this guy has been given so many chances at this point in his career. This was a guy who was arrested at a high school because he showed up drunk, threatened high school kids and then was caught on video camera screaming and crying hysterically as police arrested him. Why would any team touch him, let alone two teams with very smart general managers in the driver's seats? (Though to be fair, Toronto booted him after he broke their zero-tolerance policy they agreed upon when he signed with the Jays; at this point, I think Tampa is probably going to follow suit, especially since they already have some heat on them from acquiring Josh Lueke, a pitcher who allegedly raped someone. Having Lueke, and a guy who apparently hit and run a 72-year-old man on a motorcycle while drunk on the same roster would be a PR nightmare, and Tampa has enough problems drawing fans to the park.)

But, to my knowledge, Fairley and Main's issues have simply been ineffectiveness at the professional level, so at least they have that going for them, unlike Bush. That being said, they did come as highly touted picks, and they have hardly lived up to their Draft Day press clippings during their minor league careers so far. Can 2012 be a break out for the both of them, where they finally capture at least SOME of the hype that made them such highly merited first round choices? Or are these two probably destined to be fringe prospects in the Billy Rowell-mold?

Let's take a look at Fairley in this post. I'll try to take a stab at Main in one of the next ones sometime this weekend.


Wendell Fairley, outfielder



Age: 24
Minor League service time: Three years.
Highest level played: Double-A (Richmond)
Career minor league stat line: .263 average, .347 OBP, .334 slugging, .681 OPS, 167 runs scored, eight home runs, 24 stolen bases in 367 games and 1,419 plate appearances. 
Overall Grade: C-/D+ (Leaning more toward latter grade though)
Projection: Backup outfielder; maybe career minor league player.


Why Has Fairley Been Disappointing?

When drafted in the Giants' pick-heavy 2007 draft, many felt that the Giants got a good steal with Fairley in the 29th slot. Keith Law remarked that Fairley had middle-of-the-first round potential in the draft, but went lower because of signability and some makeup issues (apparently, he had a kid when he was a senior in high school, which to be honest, isn't really all that uncommon with a lot of athletes). A lot of the reports on Fairley were very sterling, as scouts raved about his "five tool" potential as well his athleticism. According to OGC's draft day profile on Fairley, scouts remarked that he had "the ability to hit for average and plus power" and that he was a "plus runner" and had defensive skills "perfect for center field."

However, there were some concerns about Fairley's game from people, even on draft day. For starters, Fairley was a two sport athlete in high school who also concentrated heavily on football (he was widely recruited by colleges as a wide receiver), and hence, he wasn't as widely known by scouts because of his dual-sport commitments. Also, while sporting "five tool" potential, many experts and people in the Giants organization (even Brian Sabean) admitted that he was very raw and that it would take some time for him to develop into those tools. Still, despite some concerns, the vibe surrounding Fairley's selection was overall very positive, as said in OGC's post:

"He sounds like the best position prospect that we have had in ages (well, at least before Villalona; won't they make a nice pair of call-ups in 4-6 years, or less?) and he helps makes up for the fact that we passed up a few premier position talents in Dominguez, Heyward, and Mills, particularly Heyward since I've seen a number of descriptions of him being remniscent of Willie McCovey. He's noted as a Top 10-15 pick by talent so he's equivalent enough to them to satisfy me - and I do like Bumgarner and Alderson and the fact that Sabean and Tidrow both noted that they are on the fast track and could advance to the majors in as short as 2 years, so despite them not being college players, they could provide return to the Giants in perhaps even a shorter timeframe, few prospects make the majors in 6 years, let alone 2 years. And there's no way the Giants would have gotten anyone as good as Bumgarner in the 29th pick had they selected any of those three hitters."

Despite the lofty praise and excitement, Fairley's high point seemed to be draft day and it's been downhill since. He held his own in 52 games in the Arizona Rookie League in 2008, posting a .363 wOBA, but his wOBA was mostly helped by a .388 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 0.70. In terms of actually hitting the ball, his numbers were very mediocre, as he hit only .259 and posted a slugging of .337 with only two home runs in 238 plate appearances. So, while Fairley did show a good approach at the plate his first season in Rookie Ball, his lackluster ability to hit for average or show any power in Arizona was a bit of a warning sign.

All that came into fruition in his first two full years of professional ball. In Single-A Augusta in 2009, he posted a slash of .243/.323/.333 in 390 plate appearances. Not only did he show little ability to hit for average or power in the Sally (only one more home run despite 152 more plate appearances), but he didn't showcase any of the speed that made scouts grade him a "plus runner" on draft day (only two stolen bases on six attempts). While he did pick it up offensively in San Jose in 2010, improving his slash to .292/.362/.343 in 440 plate appearances, the complete lack of power (one home run all year) and questionable baserunning skills (10 stolen bases on 16 attempts) made him an afterthought in most Giants prospects lists.

The Giants had him repeat the year in San Jose in 2011, and though he struggled in his second Cal League campaign (he posted a .245/.329/.317 slash in 242 plate appearances), the Giants still promoted him to Richmond toward the end of the year. Despite the change to the pitcher-friendly environments of the Eastern League, Fairley actually performed a lot better in the EL in 2011 than in the CL, posting a slash of .265/.321/.337 with a .657 OPS in 109 plate appearances. Still though, 2011 provided more of the same: a lot of empty singles and not much extra on the basepaths (only five stolen bases the whole year).

When you look at him in person, Fairley seems to have an athletic presence, but he doesn't 'wow' you in the way a typical "five tool" type would. He's not blazing, his frame isn't incredibly strong looking, and his swing is very constricted and illustrates why he has never posted a slugging in the .400 range over his career. He has a slap hitter's swing that makes him a groundball machine. One would hope that management and instruction has tried to work with him on this, but after four years, one has to wonder how much has been taught and how much has changed. From what I've seen from when he first started playing professional ball, not a lot has progressed in terms of swing mechanics, which makes me think Fairley's power ceiling and ability to hit extra base hits will sort of stay where it is (i.e. very low).


Is There Still Hope for Fairley?

To be honest, Fairley is one of those prospects that's really hanging on the edge right now in terms of projection. If I have to guess where he ends up, I would probably say he's a career minor leaguer with maybe a backup or utility role in the outfield being his ceiling at this point. He doesn't hit for average, doesn't hit for power, doesn't steal bases, doesn't play excellent defense (he projects more as a corner infielder at this point) and doesn't exactly have the best eye at the plate (though he does seem to adjust with more exposure to pitching, as his BB/K ratio improved in his second year in San Jose). All those are factors that are heavily working against his potential and chances in terms of being a Major League player.

However, to be honest, his slash lines haven't been as bad as I initially thought, and Giants fans had to expect Fairley to struggle like this to start out his career. He was so raw when he was drafted that to expect him to come out and mash would be foolish.Yes, the power and speed hasn't developed as well as hoped, but the averages and OBP numbers still give glimmers of hope that he can have some kind of utility for the Giants organization in the future. The glimmer is small and unlikely to project into anything, but to say Fairley is done at 24 years old and after only four seasons (including only 34 games in Double-A) would be a bit rash at this point.

There is a lot for Fairley to overcome. To be honest, there are a lot more outfield prospects in the lower minors levels of the Giants system who are younger and with more upside than Fairley at this point, so he has to do a lot to hold them. Minor injuries have seemed to take its toll on Fairley over his career, as was the case last year where he was limited to only 95 games. So, if Fairley can stay healthy and be somewhat effective in Richmond again, there is hope that he can rebound his status as a prospect in 2012. He won't jump up on any Top 30 lists going into 2013, but if he can have a bounce back year where he can post a .270/.340/.380-esque slash, then Fairley will suddenly be an interesting prospect again in the Giants system and not just the "first round" bust he's been known as the past couple of seasons.

Spring Training Notes: Adrianza and Peguero Optioned to Fresno, Villalona to SJ

While these aren't exactly new, I forgot to include them on the last post of Spring Training notes, so I figured it would be good to include them for those who weren't aware. I was just scanning the Minor League transactions blog of Baseball America and I uncovered these tidbits on the Giants.

-- This happened during the week of March 7-12th, but the Giants optioned shortstop Ehire Adrianza and outfielder Francisco Peguero to Triple-A Fresno to start the 2012 season.

-- The decision to have Adrianza start in Fresno is a bold maneuver by Giants management. Adrianza hasn't played above High-A ball (sans a couple game stint in Fresno his first year) in his minor league career, and it was widely assumed that the defensive-oriented shortstop would most likely begin the year in Double-A Richmond. However, the Giants must have liked his defensive abilities, because his batting stat line was anything but impressive this Spring, as he only played 5 games and had 3 at-bats. In those at-bats, he struck out twice and recorded no hits. While he may start the year with the Grizzlies, I would be mighty surprised to see Adrianza stick in the PCL the whole season.

-- Peguero hasn't seen much time with the Major League club this Spring, as it seems like he has mostly been in Minor League camp if you look at the stat line (he has no recorded offensive or defensive stats on the Giants' Spring Training site). The only note I have of Peguero is the fact that he threw out A's catcher Derek Norris in a game (most likely a Minor League one). This decision to have him begin in Triple-A is a mild surprise, since I thought the Giants might start him in Richmond after he only played half a season there. That being said, the Giants must have felt his performance in Double-A was good enough, and warranted a promotion to the PCL.

-- Lastly, the Giants optioned first base prospect Angel Villalona to High-A San Jose this week. This also doesn't come as a surprise considering Villalona has been unable to acquire a visa from the U.S. consulate this Spring. It was first reported that he was approved and that he would be able to make it for Spring Training, but due to some physical issues, it has been delayed and Villalona has been stuck in the Dominican Republic this whole Spring Training. Villalona last played in San Jose in 2009, so even if he did make it for some workouts this Spring, I think High-A ball was going to be his most likely destination anyways considering he hasn't played professionally since 2009.

Latin America Look: The DPL and a Glimpse Into Latin American Scouting

One of the most interesting developments in the world of Latin American baseball scouting has to be the emergence of the Dominican Prospect League. I discovered the web site in about February, and to be honest, the organization seems to be doing a lot in terms of raising the standards of scouting and player development in the Dominican Republic.

For those who aren't aware, scouting in the Dominican Republic or any other Latin American country for that matter, comes with a considerable amount of risk. There are benefits to the practice of course. For starters, since players in Latin America aren't exposed to the draft (except Puerto Rican players, who are), teams can establish strong baseball connections and even academies in countries which can give them an inside-edge to the players they want to sign and develop in the minors. Furthermore, players from Latin America can sign as early as 16-years-old, so that gives organizations lots of time to expose these raw athletes to instruction and professional playing time. Lastly, while some players command large signing bonuses, for the most part, the prices on Latin American players vary, and organizations can acquire maybe three to four athletic (but raw) players for the price that a first or supplemental round pick would cost in the Rule 4 draft.

However, there still remains glaring negatives to scouting and signing players from Latin America. As with the recent example of Fausto Carmona (who is now Roberto Hernandez Heredia), identity issues are a huge problem in Latin America. Because of shaky governments and infrastructure, birth records are very spotty in most Latin countries, and it has been common place for players and their managers to lie about their name, age and identity in order to acquire larger signing bonuses (after all, a 16 year old player is going to command a bigger bonus than an 18 year old because that 16 year old has two more years of development). The Giants have fallen victim to this a couple of times as well, with the biggest example being former top pitching prospect Merkin Valdez, who originally went by the name Manny Mateo when he was in the Braves' system. However, the Mateo name was false, and Valdez actually was a couple of years older than his stated age (the Giants still kept him in their system though despite the false claims).

While the identity issues have been a big concern, another problem with prospects signing from Latin America has been their struggles with issues back home. Of course, as a baseball fan and human being, one has to feel for their situation, and understands the pressure that they probably feel with so many people relying on them back home for money and support (if you haven't watched the movie "Sugar," you should; it will give you a good perspective of the challenges for these Latin prospects). That being said, sometimes the influences go beyond them sending home money that they should be saving for themselves. As Angel Villalona and Alfredo Simon have showed in the past couple of years, their huge statuses as baseball players in their home countries have gotten them into legal trouble as well. Both Villalona and Simon were involved in murder cases in the past couple of years. While Simon has still remained stateside, Villalona has been stuck in the DR, unable to reacquire a visa.

But, probably the biggest reason why a lot of teams don't invest too heavily in Latin America is simply the fact that the prospects are either huge booms or busts. After all, it's hard to project how a player will develop at 16 years old. Will he get stronger? Will he be able to handle a professional environment? Can he handle the language and cultural transition? Will he be able to handle the pressure of being paid six figures or more as a teenager? There are so many risk factors that are working against these prospects before they even pitch a single inning or take a professional at-bats.

Hence, that is why I don't understand why Major League Baseball wants to regulate scouting in Latin America. It is such a huge risk to begin with, and I believe that risk downgrades any kind of upside any Big Market team (Red Sox, Yankees) would have in terms of "dominating" a certain Latin area. Sure, they may dominate and be able to outspend on players in comparison to other organizations, but considering the success rate of players and their high volatility, is scouting in Latin America any better in terms of building a successful organization than the draft or spending on Free Agents? Probably not. If a team wants to spend their money in Latin American scouting, they should be free to do so as much as possible. However, their spending will also be hurt in another area, which likely will be in the draft or free agency, so that will balance things out for other teams who may get outspent in Latin America. They can have their advantage in the draft or in free agency in terms of building a competitive team.

But, back to the DPL, from what it seems like, this seems to be a great resource and organization not just for the prospects in the DR, but scouts as well. First off, we have seen what the "travel" circuit is like for high school amateurs, and it seems like the DPL is trying to replicate that: the DPL consists of teams with the "top" talent 18 and under in the DR and they not only play games against one another in "showcases" for scouts in the DR, but they also travel around Latin America and even to the states to participate in showcases against American high school competition. The whole spirit of the DPL "showcases" seems to be similar to what we see from events like the "Area Code" games, which only increases the profiles of these Latin prospects, while also giving more scouts more viewing time of these prospects in action.

So far, the DPL has been very successful in terms of getting their players signed to good bonuses. Texas Rangers first base/outfielder prospect, Ronald Guzman, signed a $3.5 million signing bonus last Winter. Adalberto Mondesi, the son of Raul Mondesi, is a shortstop whom the Royals signed for $2 million. And the Jays and international director of scouting Marco Paddy have really been active with the DPL as they have signed prospects such as shortstops Dawel Lugo (who signed for $1.3 million) and Ronniel Demorizi (who signed for $105,000). Guzman, Mondesi and Lugo were all ranked in the Top 20 of the Minor League Baseball Analysts' 2011-2012 Top International Prospects list.

As for the Giants, they have already established connections with the DPL, as they signed outfielder Carlos Valdez last Winter to a $325,000 signing bonus. Valdez is a five-tool type of player who has a solid, athletic frame, but still a lot of room for development. Thanks to the DPL, there is ample video and information on Valdez via their Web site, which makes it a lot easier for me and other Giants fans to get excited about Valdez's potential.

So what do I think about the Dominican Prospect League overall? To be honest, I think this is really good for baseball in Latin America, and I'm hoping more and more countries follow suit (Venezuela seems like the next destination for another organization like this one). It allows more exposure to these talented Latin prospects who often go under the radar and unrecognized until they hit the mid minors. Furthermore, for people who are really into prospects (such as me), the DPL also gives us an idea of who to be watching out for in the Dominican Summer League as well as other Rookie Leagues. It still doesn't compare to the exposure high school and college prospects get here in the states (thanks to sites like Perfect Game), but it is a heck of a lot better than what we were getting a few years ago before the DPL was really established.

The only negative I think we could see is for organizations, as the increased hype and visibility of these prospects will only result in higher signing bonuses for these players. With more videos on profiles out there on these prospects, courtesy of the DPL, more and more organizations will be exposed to these prospects which will increase the competition when it comes to bidding for their playing rights. Before the DPL, it would mostly be one team scouting a player, and thus, they would have a lot of control when it came to the negotiation of signing bonuses (e.g. "Nobody else knows about you, so you have to play for our price or don't play at all." method). Now, with the DPL showcases, site and videos on these prospects, players and their managers will have a lot more freedom in the negotiation process. Teams who scout a player more will have more leverage of course (a player is likely to sign with a team that scouts them the most and shows the most interest), but they won't have that complete or absolute leverage like before.

It will be interesting to see how the DPL continues to develop as the years progress. Without a doubt, how their alums pan out as professionals will be the biggest factor in terms of whether the DPL continues to develop or starts to fade. If the success rate of players who played in the DPL is high, undoubtedly the organization will gain more reputability, which only mean more talent coming their way, as well as higher signing bonuses for their prospects. If the the success rate is low, the organization could take a hit, and all the exposure will undoubtedly fade when teams start to pull their checkbooks away from their players. (I mean, who would want to spend on players from an organization that doesn't produce successful Major Leaguers?) So, these next five years will be crucial, and the progress of top DPL alums like Guzman, Mondesi and Lugo could boost or hinder the viability of the organization for the future.

Nonetheless, I really love the idea of the DPL and I think it's going to be setting in motion a lot of good things for prospects and scouts in Latin America. There are a lot of talented players in Latin America and the more talent teams (and especially the Giants, who have been very active in Latin America the past seven or so years) acquire from this area, the better baseball will be here, both internationally and domestically.

Spring Training Notes: Cuts and a Look at the Giants Prospects This Spring

So, I figure with Opening Day and with final roster cuts coming up, it would be a good time to see who has done well and who has struggled this Spring out of the prospects invited to Spring Training. Here are a few points in "bullet form."

-- As noted in the title, the Giants made another round of cuts, optioning pitcher Hector Correa and outfielder Tyler Graham to Triple-A to Fresno (title of the blog alert!). The news on those two isn't too much of a surprise considering the Giants bullpen and outfield is pretty crowded as it is, and those two were long shots to make the 25-man this Spring. Correa struck out three in 2.1 innings of work, while also allowing one run on three hits and two walks. While Graham impressed with his abilities in the field, he never could get comfortable at the plate this Spring, as he only had two hits and one walk in 15 at-bats.

-- The Giants also made some assignments to Minor League camp last Sunday. On the list were infielders Chris Dominguez and Nick Noonan, catcher Jackson Williams, outfielder Juan Perez, and pitchers Matt Yourkin, Mitch Lively and Justin Fitzgerald.

-- The most impressive performer of the bunch was Perez, who posted a slash of  .455/.538/.909 in nine games and 11 at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also added a home run, a triple and a stolen base to his stat total this Spring. The Spring is a nice sign for Perez who is coming off a down year in Richmond where he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances. The previous season, Perez gained some steam as an under the radar prospect after hitting .298 with an .809 OPS in 596 plate appearances with the San Jose Giants. While he is a bit of an older prospect (he's going to be 25 this year), Perez has some very Andres Torres-esque qualities in the sense that he has good speed (22 stolen bases a year ago) and some pop for a guy of his diminutive stature. Whether he starts in Richmond or Fresno, I think Perez could have a bounce back year in 2012, and this Spring was certainly a good sign for such a breakout.

-- On March 16th, the Giants sent top prospect Gary Brown to Minor League camp. Though he is the consensus No. 1 Giants prospect on most experts' lists and a Top-50 prospect in baseball, the move isn't a surprise considering Brown's highest level of play is the Cal League. With Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera being acquired this off-season, and with Gregor Blanco's hot spring, Brown's shot of making the 25-man roster was very slim and unlikely to begin with. In seven games with the Big League squad this Spring, Brown had two hits in 11 at-bats, both singles. While he did have a stolen base, he was caught stealing twice on three attempts. One of the big things Brown needs to work on is being more efficient on the basepaths, as he was caught 19 times last year. With his 80 scout grade speed, that is just way too much. Hopefully the Giants worked with him on some things this Spring that will make him more efficient this upcoming season.

-- Of the non-roster invitee prospects in the Giants system, the biggest performer had to be Tommy Joseph, who had two home runs in nine at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also showed a solid eye at the plate, walking twice and only striking out once. Considering that his biggest weakness as a hitter was the questionable plate discipline, this Spring was an encouraging sign for him this upcoming year as he makes the move from the Cal to the Eastern League.

-- In terms of pitching prospects, the results have been a little mixed. Eric Surkamp was expected to battle for the fifth spot in the Giants' rotation, but he hasn't stood out amazingly this Spring. While he has displayed flashes of the command that made him such a great prospect in the Cal and Eastern League (he has struck out 11 and only walked 3 in 11.1 innings of work), he has still proven to be too hittable when facing Major League hitters. He allowed 13 hits and six runs in four appearances and two starts this year. It is likely that he will start the year in Fresno.

-- On the other end, Heath Hembree came on with a fury this Spring, striking out seven in five innings of work while only walking one and allowing two hits and a run. With Brian Wilson showing some arm issues this Spring, Hembree made a case why he should be considered in the Giants bullpen as soon as this year. If Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez show any signs of struggle, don't be surprised to see Hembree get a call up to the big league roster sooner rather than later. He may be the third best right handed reliever on the Giants roster behind Wilson and Sergio Romo.

OTF Top 30: No. 11-15; Culberson, Gillaspie, Mejia, Blackburn, Osich

So it's been 11 days since my last post. It's been a weird month, and it's been hard to just find time to really sit down and post (not to mention tweet). For the sake of time interests, I've decided to streamline the rankings profiles a bit now. First off, I would like to have as many of the rankings up before Opening Day. Secondly, when you get deeper and deeper in the rankings, less and less information is available, so it's harder to come up with as in-depth profiles like the ones in the Top-10.

Hopefully, the posting will be a little more consistent from here on out.


No. 11: Charlie Culberson, Second Base

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Utility infielder; at best, starting second base. At worst, career backup.

Summary: Culberson, the former supplemental round pick (2007 Draft), has had an up and down career as an infielder in the Giants system. Originally drafted as a shortstop, inconsistent defense forced a move from the position after the 2008 season in Augusta (he ended up playing third base in 2009 with the Green Jackets, until he ended up settling at Second Base in San Jose). The main problem with Culberson's defense is that he is too error prone, as he committed 75 errors in between his two campaigns in the Sally in 2009 and 2010. That being said, the move to second base has been worthwhile, as he has only committed 28 errors the past two years at the Keystone in San Jose and Richmond, which has improved his fielding percentages to .975 and .978 the past two years (in comparison, his fielding percentages in Augusta were .901 and .900, respectively).

Offensively, things started slow for Culberson, as the Sally seemed to overwhelm him as a hitter just out of high school. In two stints with the Green Jackets, he posted OPS numbers of .599 and .598, and he displayed little power (312.5 average slugging in Augusta), ability to hit for average (.240 batting average in two seasons in Single-A) and a poor approach at the plate (0.31 average BB/K ratio in Augusta). Much like fellow 2007 pick Wendell Fairley, many people felt that Culberson simply didn't have the offensive skills to project into a Major League player.

However, in 2010, Culberson broke out in all kinds of ways in the California League. He improved defensively with the transition to second base, becoming at least average defensively at the position. The biggest improvement though came offensively, as he hit 16 home runs, and posted a slash of .290/.334/.457 in 503 at-bats in San Jose. While the plate approach was still skeptical (0.33 BB/K ratio), the increased power (career high .167 ISO) as well as speed on the basepaths (25 stolen bases), gave some scouts and experts that Culberson could have 20-20 home run-stolen base potential in the mold of Dustin Pedroia, or at the very least 15-15 potential.

Of course, as mentioned before on this blog, Cal League stats always have to be taken with a grain of salt. While he did follow up his Cal League dominance with an excellent showing in the Arizona Fall League (he posted a .366/.394/.591 slash with two home runs and 21 runs scored in 99 plate appearances with the Scorpions), the Eastern League pitching proved to be dominating for him to replicate his High-A numbers. He regressed to post a slash of .259/.287/.382 in 553 at-bats, and his plate approach suffered, as he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.17, a career low.

While some would write off Culberson completely, I was actually a little comforted in some ways by his 2011 campaign in Richmond, and still hold some hope that he can turn into a good Major League player in a year or two. First off, he was still two years younger than the competition in the Eastern League (average hitter's age is 24), and while is power regressed, it didn't fall off a cliff like some hitters who make the transition from the Cal to the Eastern League. He still hit 10 home runs, and his ISO only dipped 44 points, not terrible considering his previous high ISO in the Sally was .085. He also made the Eastern League All-Star team, an honor that displayed that his season wasn't downright terrible by any stretch of the imagination.

What to Expect in 2012: It's tough to gauge where Culberson will be in 2012. An early injury in the beginning of work outs has kept him out of Spring Training so far, and it's likely that he won't be ready until the end of Spring Training as well. There was some hope that with a good Spring, Culberson could have made the transition to Triple-A to start the year. Now, it looks like he'll be in extended Spring Training and most likely starting out the year in Double-A again. While starting out in Double-A could be a good thing, Culberson needs to make some kind of transition upward this year, either to Triple-A (the most likely scenario) or to the Majors. The latter is probably a stretch, especially when you consider Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theirot and Emmanuel Burriss are ahead of him on the organizational depth chart at the Major League and Triple-A level. However, there needs to be a sign of improvement and a leap of some sort for Culberson as a prospect in 2012. While he is still only 23 years old, this will be his sixth full season as a professional. If he cannot build off the campaign in Richmond a year ago, it's probably likely to think that Culberson won't amount to much at the Major League level. If he does, then he and Joe Panik could be battling for the keystone position when Sanchez leaves town.


No. 12: Conor Gillaspie, Third Base

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Utility infielder/outfielder; could start at third base or a corner outfield position in right situation.

Summary: Originally a highly heralded supplemental round pick in the 2008 draft (he was the Giants' second pick after Buster Posey), Gillaspie's career has started slow, but really picked up the past two seasons. After getting a peek at the Major League level in 2008 shortly after being drafted (a Major League callup was written into his contract in order for him to sign at a lower bonus), Gillaspie struggled in all areas of his game in 2009 in San Jose. He committed 27 errors at third base in 116 games, and he only posted a slash of .286/.364/.386 in 530 plate appearances. Despite the hitter-friendly environments, Gillaspie displayed little to no power ability in his first full year, as he only hit four home runs and posted a measly ISO of .100.

While the lack of power or defensive ability hurt his stock greatly in 2009, he did display a solid eye at the plate (0.81 BB/K ratio) and a strong ability to make contact (86 percent contact rate). When he made the transition to the Eastern League in 2010, he was able to transition those skills for the most part. While his BB/K ratio dipped a little, it still remained above average at 0.55, and his contact percentage remained unchanged at 86 percent. Furthermore, one of the reasons for the dip in BB/K ratio was he increased his aggressiveness at the plate, which resulted in a lower walk rate (from 10 to 7 percent), but increased power (.132 ISO). In fact, he doubled his home run total from the Cal League in the Eastern League (from 4 to 8), and his slugging and OPS numbers both improved from San Jose as well (to .420 and .757). Considering most prospects' power numbers go the opposite direction in the transition from the CL to the EL, the improvement was a promising sign that Gillaspie wasn't finished yet.

2011 proved to be Gillaspie's best year as a professional, as he posted his best overall numbers as a Minor Leaguer in Fresno. He hit 11 home runs and posted a slash of .297/.391/.453 with an OPS of .844. His contact rate dipped to 82 percent, but he posted career highs in walk percentage at 13 percent, BB/K ratio at 0.84, and ISO at .157. His stellar campaign with the Grizzlies earned him a callup to the Big Leagues, and he held his own in 19 at-bats, posting a slash of .263/.333/.421 with two walks, only one strikeout, and five hits, including an inside the park home run.

What to Expect in 2012: Gillaspie doesn't hold much room for projection at 24 years old. He is a polished offensive player that displays a strong ability to make contact and a great eye at the plate. However, while his power has started to develop since that lackluster 2009 campaign in San Jose, his upside probably remains at 10-15 home runs a year, and he doesn't offer much speed on the basepaths or athleticism on the field to boot. This proves to be a problem, because defensively, he doesn't really project to be more than a corner infielder or outfielder, and he certainly doesn't have the power tool set to justify consistent playing time at the positions. Gillaspie could be a player in the Bill Mueller-mold (corner infielder who gets on-base and hits for average despite wielding below-average power for their position), but those kinds of players tend to be very rare, and get even fewer opportunities. At the same time, Gillaspie most likely will (and should) get some more playing time at the Major League level in 2012 (though, most likely, he will start the year in Fresno barring injury to someone this Spring). Hopefully, he'll get some more playing time at other positions in Triple-A to maximize his value when he gets the call up some point this year.


No. 13: Adalberto Mejia, Left-handed pitcher

Overall grade: C+
Projection: No. 2-3 starting pitcher.

Summary: A Dominican bonus baby who was signed for $350,000 in 2011 by scout Pablo Peguero (who was also responsible for signing outfielders Francisco Peguero and Rafael Rodriguez), Mejia is still a project of sorts who is a long ways away in terms of being fully developed. Furthermore, while he does offer some upside, at his age and where he's at in his professional career, he still carries considerable risk as a prospect (Baseball America, which ranked him 26 in their prospect handbook, graded his risk factor as extreme).

However, Mejia simply dominated as a pitcher in the Dominican Summer League, most likely earning himself a ticket to the Arizona Rookie League and/or Short-Season Salem Keizer this year. While DSL stats can't be taken too seriously (any rookie league numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt), Mejia displayed impeccable control for an 18 year old who had just signed that season. He only allowed eight walks in 76 innings pitched, good for a walk percentage of 0.9 and a K/BB ratio of 8.9. Just to compare, Joan Gregorio, a right handed prospect who has been ranked higher than Mejia on most lists, allowed nine more walks (17) in two less innings pitched when he threw in the DSL in 2011, and posted a K/BB ratio 6.5 points lower than Mejia (2.4). So, while the numbers can't be weighted too heavily, one can't dismiss Mejia's advanced approach completely either.

Tools wise, Mejia is still raw, as he throws a fastball that goes in the 87-91 MPH range that touches 92 MPH. Furthermore, he has a decent changeup and is working on his slider, which right now is still more of a slurve, according to reports from Baseball America. That being said, he is still 18 and growing into his Six-foot, three inch frame. As he gets older and exposed to more professional instruction when he makes the transition stateside, it is likely that his pitching repertoire and ability will get better. His approach has already received good marks, so the Giants will be starting with an already solid foundation.


What to Expect in 2012: Mejia is still years away from the Big Leagues, and with most Latin American prospects, his future could go either way. Just judging from his numbers and the early reports, Mejia has that upside to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, though he probably doesn't have the front line stuff or size to be a No.1 (though as stated before, he could gain more velocity as he continues to develop physically). I expect the Giants to take things conservatively with Mejia, and I don't really see him pitching beyond the Northwest League in 2012. However, if he continues to transition his command and control to the states, I wouldn't be surprised to see him be more of a riser in more prospect lists going into 2013.


No. 14 Clayton Blackburn, right-handed pitcher

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: No. 2/3 Starter; reliever at worst

Summary: Drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft, the prep arm out of Oklahoma (the same state that produced top picks Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley in the 2011 draft) probably had the biggest pitching breakout out of the Giants' picks in 2011 (Joe Panik had the biggest breakout overall).

After signing, Blackburn made his debut in the Arizona Rookie League, and much like Mejia in the DSL, Blackburn displayed impeccable command and control for an 18 year old. In 33 innings pitched, he struck out 30 and walked only 3 batters total. (That's right, Three!) In addition, he only gave up 4.6 hits per nine innings and posted a BB/K ratio of 10. While it was only a 33 inning sample in Rookie ball, the stellar campaign had a lot of experts around the web and league wondering why Blackburn didn't go higher in the 2011 draft (though to be fair to other teams, it did seem like he was for sure going to honor his commitment to the University of Oklahoma going into the draft).

At six-foot, three inches and 220 pounds, his frame hints at front line rotation potential, or at the very least, middle of the rotation status. He has a four pitch arsenal, sporting a 90-93 MPH fastball, a good curve ball, and a slider and changeup, according to Rob Gordon of the MiLBA. Furthermore, while he didn't blow hitters away totally in his stint, Blackburn has excellent life on his pitches, and induces groundballs at an impressive rate (his GO/AO was 2.58 in 2011).

The main concern right now with Blackburn seems to be his size, for at 220 pounds, he is a bit on the heavy side, and isn't particularly athletic. Baseball America notes that he'll have to watch his conditioning in order to maintain and build stamina as a starting pitcher, especially as he makes the transition to full-season ball.


What to Expect in 2012: Blackburn is a big, young, high-ceiling arm that fits the mold of many former pitching prospects in the Giants organization (i.e. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner). While he doesn't have the upside of supplemental round pick Kyle Crick, Blackburn is a legitimate pitching prospect who has an advanced feel and repertoire for somebody his age. He most likely will begin the year in Low-A Augusta, which probably is the right track for him considering his youth. As noted before, his conditioning and stamina will be key things to keep an eye on in 2012, for a lot of his value is tied to him being a starter. If he can't keep the stamina to be a starting pitcher over a full year, his stock will take a hit. That being said, I am confident that he will stay in shape, and he could have a solid year in the Green Jackets' rotation in 2012.


No. 15: Josh Osich, Left-handed pitcher

Overall grade: C+
Projection: No. 4-5 starter; reliever

Summary: A sixth round pick, Osich had the makings of a first or second round draft choice going into the 2011 draft. However, Tommy John surgery in 2010, and arm concerns at the end of his 2011 season at Oregon State, scared off a lot of teams, and the Giants came in and swooped him up in the sixth round. Though he didn't play professionally last year, Osich did sign for $450,000 and passed a physical, so as of now, everything points to Osich being healthy and ready for the 2012 season.

As a pitcher, Osich had stretches of dominance during his time with the Beavers. He threw a no-hitter against powerhouse UCLA in 2011, and struck out 79 batters in 76.4 innings pitched his junior season. While he did post an ERA of 3.64 in 2011, his BB/K ratio remained decent at 2.32, and he only allowed 62 hits the entire year as well. Considering this was his first year coming off TJ surgery, and he couldn't really throw his breaking stuff due to the surgery, the numbers were a promising sign.

Right now, the big dilemma for the Giants is whether to break in Osich as a reliever or starter. Though he started in college and has starting potential, his injury concerns (he was pulled from an NCAA regional game in 2011 after one inning) probably will regulate Osich to the bullpen at least initially. Osich sports a three pitch arsenal, with a 92-95 MPH fastball that has been rated as four plus by Rob Gordon, and a slider and changeup. Baseball America noted that he didn't throw the slider very much last year due to injury concerns, and hence, that could have been the reason it wasn't graded very highly or very effective in 2011. Now that he has had a full year of play since TJ, it wouldn't be surprising to see his breaking stuff, especially his slider, become a more valuable part of his arsenal as a professional.


What to Expect in 2012: I am a big fan of Osich. I did a profile write-up on him going into the 2012 draft pick, and I thought he was worth spending a second round pick on, if available. The fact that the Giants got him in the sixth round to me is a steal (though as noted, we did spend second round money on him with his signing bonus). The health issues are a concern of course, but Osich has very good stuff and I think his secondary pitches will be even better now that he will be two years removed from TJ surgery that cost him his 2010 college season. I think the Giants will take things slow with him and start him in the bullpen, and in the Sally, just to be on the safe side. Though to be frank, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him pitch in High-A ball, simply due to his status as a high-round, college prospect.

OTF Top 30: No. 10, Hector Sanchez, C

No. 10: Hector Sanchez, catcher



Age: 22
Country: Venezuela
Signed: 2006
2011 Regular Season numbers: .302 average, .338 OBP, .533 slugging, .871 OPS, .369 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 31 runs scored, 11 home runs, 58 RBI (High-A); .261 average, .315 OBP, .340 slugging, .655 OPS, .290 wOBA, 58 wRC+, 15 runs scored, 1 home run, 15 RBI (Triple-A); .258 average, .324 OBP, .646 OPS, .292 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 0 runs scored, 0 home runs, 1 RBI (Majors)
2011 Fall/Winter Season numbers: .339 average, .402 OBP, .548 slugging, .950 OPS, 0.49 BB/K ratio, 29 runs scored, 9 home runs, 39 RBI (Venezuela Winter League).


Why you should know about Sanchez in 2012?

Sanchez probably was the highest riser in the Giants system last year. After being left out of the Top-30 Giants prospects list in Baseball America, he jumped all the way to No. 10 this year after playing in the California League, Pacific Coast League and Majors last season. Sanchez is the no. 3 rated catcher according to most analysts and publications, but Sanchez may be the most Major League-ready out of the catching prospects in the Giants system. With Buster Posey's long-term career at catcher in doubt after his horrendous injury a year ago, and with Chris Stewart and Eli Whiteside not very viable backup options behind the plate, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sanchez harness himself a backup backstop position as soon as this season.


What are Sanchez's strengths as a prospect?

Sanchez is coming off a solid, overall season in 2011 and an eye-popping VWL campaign where he hit .330 along with nine home runs. Sanchez profiles very similarly to Pablo Sandoval when Sandoval was a catching prospect in the sense that he doesn't have a ton of power, but he makes good contact at the plate (plus 80 percent contact rate at every level sans his San Jose campaign last year). Furthermore, like Sandoval, while he doesn't draw huge walk rates (he's been around eight percent for his minor league career), he doesn't strike out a whole lot either.

While the power was always a question with Sanchez early in his minor league career, he did post 11 home runs in 212 at-bats in San Jose, which was six more than the total he hit in Augusta in 310 at-bats in 2010. While the power may be a product of the league, Sanchez could be a guy who could hit 10-15 home runs a year with regular playing time (Rob Gordon rated his power as a four-plus). Furthermore, he is only 22 years old, so his power may develop as he gets older in a similar fashion to Sandoval (who was not a highly graded power hitter in the minors).

For the most part, his defense had earned solid, though not spectacular grades. His arm has garnered rave reviews, as Mike Newman noted this about him in his scouting report when Sanchez was manning the backstop as a Green Jacket in 2010:

"In game action, Sanchez beamed a 1.93 to second base to gun down a Sand Gnats baserunner attempting to steal second base which left scouts looking at each other speechless.  Between innings, Sanchez continued to display a strong arm and quick feet.  His transfer needs a bit of work, but behind Christian Bethancourt, Sanchez had the best pop times I saw all season."

In terms of receiving, Newman noted that Sanchez needed a lot of work in terms of technique (Newman noted that he "tended to stab at the ball"), but reports were much better in 2011, as Baseball America noted that he "blocks the ball well" in their Prospect Handbook for 2012. Gordon noted that he is a bit raw in terms of his receiving and blocking skills, so it may be a matter of just getting more experience behind the plate for Sanchez in terms of improving defensively. While he may not be graded as high defensively as an Andrew Susac, he may turn out better than Tommy Joseph, whose defense improved in 2011, but is still a major question mark for him as a prospect as he moves forward.

Also, there are a lot of intangibles that work greatly in Sanchez's favor. His callup and exposure to the Big Leagues gave him some nice professional experience, and he held his own well, both offensively and defensively, a big plus considering he was playing in the Sally the previous year. Furthermore, Baseball America noted that despite limited English he communicates extremely well with pitchers. When you think about how much is invested in the Giants staff, that kind of report only bodes well in his favor in terms of earning playing time at the next level.


Where might Sanchez struggle?

Sanchez still needs a lot of development as a prospect, and his callup could be more hurtful than beneficial in the long run. We have seen prospects get rushed to the big leagues too soon, and though Sanchez didn't hurt his stock with the Giants, he certainly looked like a guy who needed some work in the minors. While the most likely destination for him to begin 2012 is in Fresno, he could earn a backup position with a good Spring Training (and so far, he's off to a good start). While some would say that Sanchez being a backup justifies his status and development as a prospect, I would also take it (should it happen) with some prudence, mainly because he's going to have limited at-bats, and limited opportunities considering Posey is a premium player at the position. He could be above-average as a Major League backup this year, but with more seasoning in the minors, he could turn out to be a good catcher at the Major League level in the future.

As noted, defensively he has gotten mixed reports, though he has gotten better. The one main concern about Sanchez is his frame, as he is 5-foot, 11 inches but sits at 225 pounds. Newman noted this in his report, hinting that his weight could have affected him defensively in 2010. While the Giants training staff has had success in terms of getting guys into playing shape (Sandoval being the prime example), his weight is going to be a concern as he gets older and moves up the system. If Sanchez can stay in shape, then his future will look bright and undoubtedly, his defensive skills will continue their upward progression. If not, then his stock as well as defense could slip, especially considering how difficult the position is on the body.

Another tool that is a bit of a question mark is Sanchez's power. While the 11 home runs in San Jose are nice, inflated power numbers are typical for prospects in the Cal League (and he didn't touch the 10 mark at any other level, and that included ISO numbers, which are pretty pedestrian when you look beyond San Jose). Because he didn't play in Double-A in 2011, it is hard to gauge how much of Sanchez's power is for real, and how much is just due to a hitter-friendly environment. Sanchez most likely will not be a 20-plus home run hitter in his career. That being said, at this point, just judging from his SJ and VWL numbers, it is plausible that he could hit up to 15 home runs with regular playing time. Then again, he could be a 6-8 home run hitter, as his extra base hit percentage never topped 31 sans his SJ campaign. 2012 should be a good gauge for Giants fans and management to see what kind of power Sanchez will bring to the table as a catching prospect.


Grades on Sanchez's tools:

Hitting for average/contact ability: 15/20 (He has showed a strong ability to make contact in the minors, but he has only hit over .300 in the DSL and High-A ball. Sanchez tends to hit too many ground balls, so that severely drops his value. However, he's not a big whiffer, and if he can continue to hone his approach at the plate, it's plausible to think that he could be a .260-.270 hitter at the next level, which would be good for a catcher.)
Power: 13/20 (I'm selling low on this simply because I think his Cal League stats were a product of power inflation. That being said, I didn't think he'd be more than a single-digit home run, sub-.400 slugging hitter prior to 2011, and the strides he made last year and this Winter in the VWL have me thinking differently. If the power continues to trend upward, then Giants could have a nice little bat with some pop off the bench in 2012.)
Plate approach: 17/20 (Other than his arm, this is probably his best tool set. He has consistently posted good BB/K ratios in the minors and that transitioned in his stint in the Majors. The main reason I believe his power could develop is because his plate approach is already so developed for his age. I don't give him an A-ranking because while it's good, it certainly isn't spectacular by any means. That being said, I think his plate approach will continue to carry him at the plate as he gets more experience in the high minors and majors.)
Speed: 11/20 (He's a catcher and he has zero career stolen bases in the minors. Furthermore, with his size, he may be a bit of a base clogger if he doesn't maintain weight. But like I said, he is a catcher, so we shouldn't expect too much out of this grade.)
Defense: 16/20 (His arm is a plus tool of his. His receiving and blocking still need work. But like his power, they're trending upward and he'll only get better with more and more innings behind the plate.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 18/20 (He gets good reviews for his game-calling and work with pitchers, and his improvement in all areas of his game last season despite being an unheralded prospect going into 2011 certainly bode well for his future. At this moment, my gut tells me he's a better option than Whiteside or Stewart, but as I said before, I am hesitant to rush him because I don't want the Giants to hinder his development.)


Overall Grade: B-
Projection: Utility catcher most likely, but with good chance to be a starting catcher if he continues to impress in 2012. At the very worst, a career backup.

Summary: I like Sanchez a lot. Originally, I graded him as a C+, but I amped it up to a B- because I really think he can be a good starting catcher at the Major League level. He doesn't have to potential or upside of a Posey, Joseph or even Susac, but he should be at least above replacement level, which is a heck of a lot better than what the Giants have gotten or will get out of Stewart or Whiteside. 2012 will be an important year, and while I don't think it's a make or break season by any means (remember he's still only 22 years old), he does need to continue to produce offensively and defensively. Any set backs this year would be a huge blow to his future.

Prospect Highlight: Angel Villalona, 1B

I got this idea from OGC, who commented on the update post, and I figured, ever certain number of posts in the Top 30 prospect list I would highlight a certain player who merits some discussion. These posts won't be as long as the Top 30 profiles, but they are pieces to highlight certain players who should still be focused on by Giants fans in 2012.


Why is Angel Villalona Highlighted?

Villalona is probably one of the most interesting stories in the Giants minor league system. In Augusta of 2006, the Giants awarded the 16 year old Villalona with a $2.1 million signing bonus, the highest in team history for an international signing at the time (it would later be surpassed by Rafael Rodriguez). Villalona at the time was considered a man among boys: he had tremendous power, and many experts felt that Villalona could develop into an All-Star calibur player who would regularly hit 30-plus home runs at the Major League level. However, toward the end of the 2009 season, Villalona was charged with murder in his home country, the Dominican Republic. Though charges against him were eventually dropped, his visa was revoked, and Villalona spent two years away from organized baseball. Despite the uncertainty of his future, the Giants still placed Villalona on the 40-man roster at the end of this year (most likely to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft).



What Makes Villalona Interesting?

Villalona has plus power and that was evident in his stints in the lower minors early in his career. He hit 17 home runs in 2008 in Augusta and posted a slugging percentage of .435 as well. While the numbers aren't eye-popping, he did this as a 17 year old, so the fact that he was able to hit with as much power as he did as a teenager against competition 2-4 years older than him is impressive. While his power did decrease in the hitter-friendly California League (his home runs dropped to 9 and slugging dipped under .400 to .397 in 310 plate appearances), he was still considerably young for the league (only 18 in a league which average 22-23 years of age), and did deal with some minor injuries that limited him to almost 200 less plate appearances from the previous season.

Furthermore, the reports from some of the coaches in the organization about Villalona initially were very positive, which gave some hope that despite the average numbers, he was progressing on the right track to stardom. The reports detailed him as a hardworking guy who was showing signs (though inconsistent) of improvement, especially over the course of seasons (e.g. he improved at the plate with more and more at-bats). Here's what Augusta manager Andy Skeels said about Villalona after the 2008 season:

"You come out of Spring Training and they're so young and never experienced a full season, so you don't know what you're going to get. For someone that young, it's a testament to what our staff did and a testament to the kind of kid Angel is. He's a tremendous talent and he dedicated himself much better to becoming a professional."

What keeps Villalona out of the Top 30?

On potential alone, Villalona could be a Top 30 prospect. He was a Top 50 prospect in baseball as recently as 2009. His power tool is that good. Unfortunately, the question of whether or not he is going to play this year stateside only compounds to an already big laundry list of factors working against him as a prospect. Originally billed as a highly athletic, "five tool" potential player out of the DR at the time of his signing, Villalona proved as soon as his first year in professional ball that he was probably a three tool player at best. He didn't have as much speed as expected, and defensively he proved to be nothing special at any level (in two of his three seasons RTZ, or Total Zone Fielding Runs, rated his defense as below average).

In addition to a lack of speed and questionable defense, Villalona had major conditioning issues, as his weight ballooned to the point where the Giants brass moved Villalona from third to first after his first full year in Rookie ball and the Northwest League. While a move from third to first base was also probably the best due to his defensive ability, it certainly hurt his status as a prospect, since his power is a premium for a third base prospect, but probably only above-average for a first base one.

While Villalona's hit tool and power tool have plus potential, his plate approach isn't (and that's putting it nicely). As a matter of fact, the biggest knock against Villalona as a prospect was his total lack of discipline and propensity for swinging at pitches badly out of the strike zone. In his three minor league seasons, his average OBP is .316 and his career BB/K ratio sits at 0.18 (which makes Francisco Peguero look like Kevin Youkilis by comparison). The main issue was his two-strike approach, as he seemingly swung at any and everything out of the strike zone. Add this with a lack of walks (only 42 career walks in 1047 plate appearances), and safe to say there were a lot of strikes against Villalona even before the murder incident occurred.


Can Villalona Improve?

I would like to say "Yes," though I do so with some reservations. I am an optimistic guy and I feel like Villalona should have a new spin on his career after such a life-altering incident. I know Osvaldo Martinez in the White Sox (previously Marlins) had a bit of a career turn-around after he was involved in a shooting in his native Puerto Rico (he was the victim though). I'm hoping Villalona can do the same and really take the bull by the horns after almost losing everything.

That being said, the odds are against Villalona. He's had two years away from the states, and his youth, one of the biggest factors working for him as a prospect, is essentially gone. With two lost minor league seasons, he now has to spend a year (maybe even two) to just get reacquainted with the game again. Also, how in shape Villalona is will be a big issue, since it was a problem when he was here stateside. After two years away from the game, it isn't likely that he's in pristine condition (though I do hope he's in at least decent shape, and despite the visa denial saying otherwise, I think he had kept okay care of himself, from reports I have read).

The Giants will need to be patient with Villalona as he works toward being a viable prospect in their system once again. He still is only 21 years old, so there is some time in his favor (though obviously not as much as before). Nonetheless, Villalona is a high risk, high reward kind of player, whose future is extremely murky at this point. So while he may have the potential to recapture the lofty status he once held, it is also highly possible that the Giants made a big mistake putting him on the 40-man roster (I don't think it was, considering how many players have turned into studs from the Rule 5 draft, but we'll see).

Whatever the future may hold for Villalona, it is unlikely that Giants fans will get a good idea of what his future projection will be after this year. Most likely, we won't know Villalona's true future projection for at least a couple of more seasons.