First off, I consider myself to be a big Jonathan Sanchez fan. I've been a fan of him since he burst on the scene in 2006, appearing in 27 games with the Giants his rookie season. Sanchez strikes me as a special player. On stuff alone, he is surprisingly good. Sure, he doesn't rock it up in the high 90's, but his K/9 has been over eight since 2007. The man knows how strike guys out.
However, like most pitchers with great strikeout stuff, Sanchez has been haunted by control issues. In fact, saying he has control issues is an understatement. That's like saying Lady Gaga doesn't know how to dress "properly" at a baseball game.
Sanchez's career BB/9 is 4.59 and his career K/BB ratio accordingly is 2.01. Those aren't exactly impressive, and aren't necessarily indicators of future dominance. Sure, the strikeouts are nice, but in order to really be something special at the Major League, a pitcher has to be able to throw strikes. Ask Omar Minaya and Mets fans about taking risks and giving a lot of money to a high strikeout pitcher with control issues (cough...Oliver Perez...cough).
So, much like last season, Sanchez's name suddenly has become a hot topic in terms of trade talks. After all, the Giants do have Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner is finally learning the Major League ropes at the end of the rotation. Sanchez could develop into a solid pitcher, but he has been too inconsistent in his career for Giants fans and management to be certain.
Furthermore, Sanchez's value has never really been higher.
If you look at the standard numbers, Sanchez blows away his first half stats from a year ago. By the All-Star break in 2009, Sanchez had a 3-8 record, a 4.69 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP (and that was INCLUDING the No-Hitter against the Padres). This year, Sanchez sports a 6-6 record, a 3.26 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. That's a vast improvement from where he was at this point last season (or at least according to the standard numbers).
The dilemma last year was trying to sell Sanchez despite his stats looking awful. This year, the Giants don't have that dilemma. The Giants can dish Sanchez, and I'm sure many teams will be happy to take the hook. However, before Giants fans and management are ready to trade away the Puerto Rican lefty, they have to ask themselves three things before making such a deal:
1.) What can we get in return for Sanchez?
2.) How will Sanchez perform for the rest of the season?
3.) How much do we trust Madison Bumgarner?
The first question is the most obvious one. Rumors have circulated that there could be a possible Sanchez and Thomas Neal (who's tearing it up now in Richmond after a slow start) for Prince Fielder deal. ESPN's Buster Olney has shut down such speculations, saying that Sanchez simply wouldn't be enough and that Matt Cain would have to be a centerpiece in the deal (which isn't or at least shouldn't happen).
With Fielder out of the way then, the most likely scenario in a trade involving Sanchez would either involve David DeJesus or Jose Guillen, both names that have been linked to possible trades involving the Giants. Though the outfield is crowded, DeJesus would be a solid fit (as Fangraphs writer Dave Cameron points out). Guillen on the other hand, wouldn't (too much of a fluke year this season, and he's starting to decline too).
In terms of the second point, right now it's tough to tell. Sanchez's success this year has been dependent on his April, which was very good. In April, Sanchez posted a 12.21 K/9, a 2.54 K/BB ratio and had a 2.14 FIP in 24.1 IP. However, in May and June, he has sported FIP totals of 4.27 and 4.63, respectively, and his K/BB ratios have been under two the past two months as well.
Then again, Sanchez did bounce back in the second half, so Giants fans can expect the same, right? Well, Sanchez right now is on pace for setting a career high in terms of innings (ZiPS has him finishing at 177 IP; his previous high was last year when he threw 163 IP), so it's tough to tell whether or not he can return to that second half for from a year ago. We just don't know how he'll hold up as he pitches more innings (though 177 isn't THAT bad of a load).
Furthermore, Sanchez's contact rates at are a higher total than last season (77.3 percent in comparison to 73.8 percent last year) and his swinging strike percentage is down as well (from 10.9 percent to 9.4 percent). This would be okay if he was throwing strikes, but unfortunately, he isn't (his strike zone percentage is down to 45.9 percent, the lowest of his Major League career; it was 48.3 percent a season ago).
As for the last point, if the Giants deal Sanchez, the pressure will be on Bumgarner to step up and be the fourth starter immediately (which would mean a return of Todd Wellemeyer or Joe Martinez to the starting rotation). That is a lot of pressure to put on Bumgarner, especially when you consider a.) He's only 21 years old and b.) He's only pitched 24 total innings at the Major League level.
If the team has playoff aspirations, they are going to need Sanchez. And, even if they don't have playoff aspirations, it would serve them better to hang onto Sanchez (who still has two years left of arbitration) for next season, rather than going out and spending MORE money on a free agent pitcher to fill the fifth spot next year. Bumgarner is going to be a solid pitcher, but they need to develop him a little more in the Majors, for he is going to be susceptible to getting hit (as we have seen in his first two starts this year) until he perfects his secondary pitches more. Sanchez is more of a sure deal, even if he can be erratic at times.
In my opinion, unless the Giants can make a play at Fielder (which I think is highly unliklely), the Giants should stay pat and stick with Sanchez. Is he going to bounce back in the second half like he did in 2009? I don't know, but for next season, Sanchez is a cheap, valuable option that the Giants would benefit from in the rotation (his WAR is still 1.5, which values at six million; he'll probably makes about half of that in arbitration next year).
And, if the Giants want to stay in the playoff hunt, Sanchez needs to stay on this roster. Bumgarner and Wellemeyer/Martinez at the end of the rotation isn't going to get them into the postseason. But Sanchez and Bumgarner?
I think Giants fans can agree the chances are better with the latter.
Showing posts with label Jonathan Sanchez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jonathan Sanchez. Show all posts
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Sunday, May 2, 2010
A Look at Zito, Cain and Sanchez's Performances Against the Rockies
Today was a tough one for the Giants. Aaron Rowand graced Giants fans with his presence back at the top of the lineup, Jhoulys Chacin mowed the offense down and the Giants, once again, avoided the sweep for the third straight series.
It sucks that the Giants played three, top shelf National League teams (St. Louis, Philadelphia and Colorado) and came "Oh-So Close" to sweeping each one. Then again, you can't argue with six out of nine, especially against those caliber of teams.
While the Giants couldn't finish off the Rockies today, Giants fans have to be optimistic about their chances in the NL West. What made the Giants so successful this weekend? Well, I think it's safe to say that Giants fans can thank the starting rotation, specifically Barry Zito and Matt Cain.
If you break down Zito, Cain and Jonathan Sanchez's performances over the weekend, they all show some interesting things.
First, let's look at Zito's numbers on last Friday's start (information courtesy of Brooks Baseball.net and their Pitch F/X tool).
From the information above, you can see that Zito was extremely effective with his breaking pitches, specifically his slider and curve ball. Last Friday's start was just another example of Zito's success this year: his fastball velocity is up early this year, which makes his curve and slider, even more effective.
Last year, and in 2008, when his fastball velocity waned in April, he got mashed, simply because the curve and slider were too close in terms of velocity to his fastball (Thus, it being easier for hitters to adjust). That hasn't been the case this year, and Zito arguably has been the Giants' best pitcher this April (it's either him or Tim Lincecum). Granted, his low BABIP (.209) is still a concern (how will his numbers look when his BABIP eventually rises?) but you can't argue with the results from the big lefty.
Cain also posted an impressive start yesterday, finally earning some run support, and also struck some guys out too boot (eight in eight innings pitched), en route to his first victory of the year.
What is most impressive about Cain's start though is how he bounced back despite rough second and third innings in terms of pitch count.
After the second and third, I didn't think Cain would go more than six (seven at the max). The pitch count was high at 65 after the third, and by the fourth, the Giants had already produced a decent impact in terms of run support to cover the Giants right-hander.
However, Cain buckled down and performed admirably. After throwing 49 pitches in the second and third inning combined, and only throwing 29 strikes (his strike percentage in the second and third combined was 59 percent), Cain buckled and threw 57 pitches over the next five innings (including 42 pitches for strikes). Additionally, Cain kept bringing the heat, as his fastball velocity still stayed in the 90-93 MPH range, even after he got past the 100 pitch mark.
Say what you want about Cain: he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, he puts too many ball in play, he doesn't get enough run support, etc. The kid is tough and has a lot of mental makeup, as evidenced by his excellent start against the Rockies.
Unfortunately, you can't say the same of Sanchez and his start today.
If you look at the first inning, Sanchez looked to be on his way to another unbelievable performance. He threw only eight pitches in the first inning, all of them for strikes. The second inning though, he started to show some warning signs. He threw 33 pitches in the two innings combined, 20 of the pitches for strikes (60.6 percent).
And then, in true, "Brian De Palma Post-Mission Impossible" fashion, Sanchez fell off a cliff in the fourth. He threw 32 pitches, and only 15 for strikes (46.88 percent). Though he only allowed one run that inning, he continued to struggle into the fifth, unable to regain the control he had shown in the first inning. It was safe to say, by the fifth, it was just a slippery slope for the Giants in general, especially considering the fact that Chacin was owning the Giants' hitters today like the Kardashian sisters owning athletic stars with their...ugh..."qualities".
Bottom line though for Sanchez? His problem today proved to be the problem he's had his whole career: consistency with his command.
Check out the strikezone plot for him in today's game.
Not exactly impressive, huh? A lot of white in that strike zone.
Then again, you have to expect games like this from Sanchez. He has incredible strikeout stuff, but his control is going to wane up and down. That's just the reality of who he is as a pitcher. The problem is, you wish these games happen against the Astros and Nationals, teams whom the Giants have a good shot against in terms of getting run support to back up "off" performances like this one today from Sanchez.
Unfortunately, it happens against the Rockies and against an impressive pitcher like Chacin. Oh well. You can't win 'em all, right?
What can we take away from the Giants' two through four pitchers and their performances this weekend? Zito continues to be efficient, Cain can bounce back and Sanchez needs to better composure from inning to inning if he wants to be more like Johan Santana and less like Oliver Perez.
It sucks that the Giants played three, top shelf National League teams (St. Louis, Philadelphia and Colorado) and came "Oh-So Close" to sweeping each one. Then again, you can't argue with six out of nine, especially against those caliber of teams.
While the Giants couldn't finish off the Rockies today, Giants fans have to be optimistic about their chances in the NL West. What made the Giants so successful this weekend? Well, I think it's safe to say that Giants fans can thank the starting rotation, specifically Barry Zito and Matt Cain.
If you break down Zito, Cain and Jonathan Sanchez's performances over the weekend, they all show some interesting things.
First, let's look at Zito's numbers on last Friday's start (information courtesy of Brooks Baseball.net and their Pitch F/X tool).
Pitch Statistics | |||||||||
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swinging Strikes / % | Nibbleness | Time to Plate |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 85.96 | 87.6 | 6.37 | 10.20 | 33 | 19 / 57.58% | 2 / 6.06% | 6.22 | 0.437 |
| CH (Changeup) | 74.24 | 75.9 | 6.88 | 2.68 | 12 | 8 / 66.67% | 1 / 8.33% | 4.15 | 0.503 |
| SL (Slider) | 78.36 | 81.5 | -3.92 | 1.81 | 20 | 14 / 70.00% | 2 / 10.00% | 8.17 | 0.476 |
| CU (Curveball) | 73.14 | 76.5 | -5.34 | -10.98 | 25 | 16 / 64.00% | 4 / 16.00% | 8.65 | 0.526 |
| FT (TwoSeam Fastball) | 85.59 | 87.5 | 9.25 | 7.59 | 29 | 18 / 62.07% | 1 / 3.45% | 4.74 | 0.438 |
| Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate. | |||||||||
From the information above, you can see that Zito was extremely effective with his breaking pitches, specifically his slider and curve ball. Last Friday's start was just another example of Zito's success this year: his fastball velocity is up early this year, which makes his curve and slider, even more effective.
Last year, and in 2008, when his fastball velocity waned in April, he got mashed, simply because the curve and slider were too close in terms of velocity to his fastball (Thus, it being easier for hitters to adjust). That hasn't been the case this year, and Zito arguably has been the Giants' best pitcher this April (it's either him or Tim Lincecum). Granted, his low BABIP (.209) is still a concern (how will his numbers look when his BABIP eventually rises?) but you can't argue with the results from the big lefty.
Cain also posted an impressive start yesterday, finally earning some run support, and also struck some guys out too boot (eight in eight innings pitched), en route to his first victory of the year.
What is most impressive about Cain's start though is how he bounced back despite rough second and third innings in terms of pitch count.
| Inning | Pitches in Inning | Strikes in Inning | Strike% in Inning | Cumulative Total Pitches | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 14 | 87.50 | 16 | ||||
| 2 | 22 | 12 | 54.55 | 38 | ||||
| 3 | 27 | 17 | 62.96 | 65 | ||||
| 4 | 11 | 9 | 81.82 | 76 | ||||
| 5 | 13 | 8 | 61.54 | 89 | ||||
| 6 | 8 | 6 | 75.00 | 97 | ||||
| 7 | 12 | 9 | 75.00 | 109 | ||||
| 8 | 13 | 10 | 76.92 | 122 | ||||
After the second and third, I didn't think Cain would go more than six (seven at the max). The pitch count was high at 65 after the third, and by the fourth, the Giants had already produced a decent impact in terms of run support to cover the Giants right-hander.
However, Cain buckled down and performed admirably. After throwing 49 pitches in the second and third inning combined, and only throwing 29 strikes (his strike percentage in the second and third combined was 59 percent), Cain buckled and threw 57 pitches over the next five innings (including 42 pitches for strikes). Additionally, Cain kept bringing the heat, as his fastball velocity still stayed in the 90-93 MPH range, even after he got past the 100 pitch mark.
Say what you want about Cain: he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, he puts too many ball in play, he doesn't get enough run support, etc. The kid is tough and has a lot of mental makeup, as evidenced by his excellent start against the Rockies.
Unfortunately, you can't say the same of Sanchez and his start today.
If you look at the first inning, Sanchez looked to be on his way to another unbelievable performance. He threw only eight pitches in the first inning, all of them for strikes. The second inning though, he started to show some warning signs. He threw 33 pitches in the two innings combined, 20 of the pitches for strikes (60.6 percent).
And then, in true, "Brian De Palma Post-Mission Impossible" fashion, Sanchez fell off a cliff in the fourth. He threw 32 pitches, and only 15 for strikes (46.88 percent). Though he only allowed one run that inning, he continued to struggle into the fifth, unable to regain the control he had shown in the first inning. It was safe to say, by the fifth, it was just a slippery slope for the Giants in general, especially considering the fact that Chacin was owning the Giants' hitters today like the Kardashian sisters owning athletic stars with their...ugh..."qualities".
Bottom line though for Sanchez? His problem today proved to be the problem he's had his whole career: consistency with his command.
Check out the strikezone plot for him in today's game.
Not exactly impressive, huh? A lot of white in that strike zone.
Then again, you have to expect games like this from Sanchez. He has incredible strikeout stuff, but his control is going to wane up and down. That's just the reality of who he is as a pitcher. The problem is, you wish these games happen against the Astros and Nationals, teams whom the Giants have a good shot against in terms of getting run support to back up "off" performances like this one today from Sanchez.
Unfortunately, it happens against the Rockies and against an impressive pitcher like Chacin. Oh well. You can't win 'em all, right?
What can we take away from the Giants' two through four pitchers and their performances this weekend? Zito continues to be efficient, Cain can bounce back and Sanchez needs to better composure from inning to inning if he wants to be more like Johan Santana and less like Oliver Perez.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Could Jonathan Sanchez Have a Better Year than Matt Cain for the Giants?
After last night's seven inning, 10 strikeout performance against the Padres, Jonathan Sanchez has caught the attention of the baseball nation once again.
Not only is Sanchez ready to breakout (as I hinted this off-season), but he is already on his way in doing so. Despite his record being 1-1 in three starts this year, Sanchez is posting a 1.86 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a FIP (fielding independent pitching on an ERA scale) of 1.46.
After years of speculation and disappointment, Sanchez is finally reaching his potential and is another important cog in the Giants' already impressive starting pitching rotation.
However, one question remains that isn't being widely discussed amongst those in Giants nation:
Could Sanchez be a better pitcher in 2010 than Matt Cain?
When you look at the big picture, it doesn't matter. The Giants have both pitchers, so it shouldn't be that big of a deal, right? As long as they both do well, it's a win-win for the Giants.
That is true, but to a point.
First off, Cain is coming off a very big extension (he'll be owed $27.5 million dollars over the next three seasons), so Cain is being paid and treated as the Giants' number two option of the future behind Tim Lincecum.
However, while Sanchez did sign an extension this year to avoid arbitration for another year (he signed a one-year $2.1 million deal this off-season), Sanchez could make a case that he may be just as valuable if not more than Cain after the 2010 season is finished.
Like I said, it know it sounds like blasphemy to some. Saying Sanchez is better than Cain to Giants fans is like saying Rocky II is better than Rocky I to die hard movie lovers (though I like Rocky IV the best, simply for guilty pleasure/patriotic/great music during the fight scene reasons).
If you look deeper at the numbers though, the gap between Cain and Sanchez is closer than it seems.
First off, look at what Sanchez and Cain have done so far in three starts:
Cain: 0-0 W-L, 18.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.91 FIP, 5.79 K/9, 1.45 BB/9, 4.00 K/BB, .295 BABIP, 1.55 GB/FB.
Sanchez: 1-1 W-L, 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1.46 FIP, 12.57 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 3.38 K/BB, .286 BABIP, 0.70 GB/FB.
Now, these are just their numbers after three starts. They could easily change for the better or worse over the course of the season. However, after looking at these numbers so far it's safe to say that Sanchez has performed better and has seemed to be the more impressive and dominating pitcher.
I know Cain fans (and I'm one of them too, by the way) will say "Cain is walking less guys! Things will turn around for him soon! Sanchez walks too many and that's dangerous if you're a pitcher!"
I agree. Cain's walk rate is almost a point and a half lower than it was last year (his 3.02 BB/9 was the lowest of his Major League career). However, the concerning aspect of Cain's pitching so far this year has to be his strikeout rate, which is 5.45. While I think it could improve as the season goes on, the decrease in strikeouts over Cain's career hasn't made Giants fans feel easy.
In 2006, his first full year with the Giants, his K/9 was 8.45. Last year, it was 7.07.
Sanchez on the other hand, has improved his ability to strike out guys as he has gained more Major League experience (his rookie year in 2006, his K/9 was 7.45; last year, it was 9.75).
What could be a reason for this? Well, despite having an advantage in velocity (Cain averaged 92.6 MPH on his fastball last year while Sanchez averaged 91.7 MPH), Cain simply allows too much contact as a pitcher. His contact rate last year was 80.7 percent and that has been the same case this year as he has a contact rate of 83.2 percent. In comparison, Sanchez has never had a contact rate over 78.4 percent, and that was during his rookie season (his contact rate was 73.8 percent in 2009, and is currently 71.6 percent this year).
(Furthermore, to put things into context, the league average contact rate for a pitcher is around 80 percent, usually.)
Another startling category where Sanchez holds a significant advantage is Sanchez' swinging strike percentage, which has been superior to Cain's over their respective careers. Last year, Sanchez had a swinging strike percentage of 10.9 percent (he has only had a swinging strike percentage under 10 once, back in 2006 when it was 9.4 percent). This season he has been unbelievable in that category, posting a 14 percent swinging strike percentage.
As for Cain? His swinging strike percentage last year was 9.1. His highest swinging strike percentage was 9.4 percent in 2008, and this year, it has suffered a big drop through the first three games as it hovers at 7.1 percent.
What does the mean? Well, considering the league average in this category is around 8.5 percent from season to season, Sanchez is a superior pitcher when it comes to missing bats while Cain may be little better than league average in terms of making batters miss.
Overall, there could be a lot of reasons why Sanchez has performed better this season and is a better strikeout pitcher than Cain. It could be Sanchez's delivery, which has been recognized as very deceptive by many baseball experts and scouts throughout Major League Baseball. It could be that Sanchez's breaking stuff and secondary pitches are far superior than Cain's, which explains why Sanchez is able to strikeout guys at a better rate than Cain despite having a slower fastball.
Whatever the reason, in my opinion, if Sanchez can't be considered better than Cain, then he should be at the same level or very close to the level of the Giants' 25-year-old right hander. While Cain does walk less guys and has been a better groundball pitcher this season, neither of those things have been very characteristic of Cain in his career. He has never had a GB/FB ratio over one (Sanchez on the other hand did it twice in 2007 and 2008), and while his walks have declined every year since his first full year in the rotation, he certainly is not a sub-two BB/9 pitcher.
Granted, Cain and Sanchez in the grand scheme of things is a wonderful thing for the Giants and San Francisco baseball fans. They both will provide great numbers and great outings throughout the course of the 2010 season.
That being said, things will get tough after the 2010 season when Sanchez will hit his second year of arbitration. If he ends up having a better year than Cain in 2010, the Giants will be hard-pressed to give him a "Cain-esque" contract by Sanchez's management team.
And, with re-signing Tim Lincecum, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey to long-term deals a priority down the road, it will be interesting to see if managing partner Bill Neukom will be open to shelling out that kind of cash to the 27-year-old left-hander from Puerto Rico.
Not only is Sanchez ready to breakout (as I hinted this off-season), but he is already on his way in doing so. Despite his record being 1-1 in three starts this year, Sanchez is posting a 1.86 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a FIP (fielding independent pitching on an ERA scale) of 1.46.
After years of speculation and disappointment, Sanchez is finally reaching his potential and is another important cog in the Giants' already impressive starting pitching rotation.
However, one question remains that isn't being widely discussed amongst those in Giants nation:
Could Sanchez be a better pitcher in 2010 than Matt Cain?
When you look at the big picture, it doesn't matter. The Giants have both pitchers, so it shouldn't be that big of a deal, right? As long as they both do well, it's a win-win for the Giants.
That is true, but to a point.
First off, Cain is coming off a very big extension (he'll be owed $27.5 million dollars over the next three seasons), so Cain is being paid and treated as the Giants' number two option of the future behind Tim Lincecum.
However, while Sanchez did sign an extension this year to avoid arbitration for another year (he signed a one-year $2.1 million deal this off-season), Sanchez could make a case that he may be just as valuable if not more than Cain after the 2010 season is finished.
Like I said, it know it sounds like blasphemy to some. Saying Sanchez is better than Cain to Giants fans is like saying Rocky II is better than Rocky I to die hard movie lovers (though I like Rocky IV the best, simply for guilty pleasure/patriotic/great music during the fight scene reasons).
If you look deeper at the numbers though, the gap between Cain and Sanchez is closer than it seems.
First off, look at what Sanchez and Cain have done so far in three starts:
Cain: 0-0 W-L, 18.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.91 FIP, 5.79 K/9, 1.45 BB/9, 4.00 K/BB, .295 BABIP, 1.55 GB/FB.
Sanchez: 1-1 W-L, 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1.46 FIP, 12.57 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 3.38 K/BB, .286 BABIP, 0.70 GB/FB.
Now, these are just their numbers after three starts. They could easily change for the better or worse over the course of the season. However, after looking at these numbers so far it's safe to say that Sanchez has performed better and has seemed to be the more impressive and dominating pitcher.
I know Cain fans (and I'm one of them too, by the way) will say "Cain is walking less guys! Things will turn around for him soon! Sanchez walks too many and that's dangerous if you're a pitcher!"
I agree. Cain's walk rate is almost a point and a half lower than it was last year (his 3.02 BB/9 was the lowest of his Major League career). However, the concerning aspect of Cain's pitching so far this year has to be his strikeout rate, which is 5.45. While I think it could improve as the season goes on, the decrease in strikeouts over Cain's career hasn't made Giants fans feel easy.
In 2006, his first full year with the Giants, his K/9 was 8.45. Last year, it was 7.07.
Sanchez on the other hand, has improved his ability to strike out guys as he has gained more Major League experience (his rookie year in 2006, his K/9 was 7.45; last year, it was 9.75).
What could be a reason for this? Well, despite having an advantage in velocity (Cain averaged 92.6 MPH on his fastball last year while Sanchez averaged 91.7 MPH), Cain simply allows too much contact as a pitcher. His contact rate last year was 80.7 percent and that has been the same case this year as he has a contact rate of 83.2 percent. In comparison, Sanchez has never had a contact rate over 78.4 percent, and that was during his rookie season (his contact rate was 73.8 percent in 2009, and is currently 71.6 percent this year).
(Furthermore, to put things into context, the league average contact rate for a pitcher is around 80 percent, usually.)
Another startling category where Sanchez holds a significant advantage is Sanchez' swinging strike percentage, which has been superior to Cain's over their respective careers. Last year, Sanchez had a swinging strike percentage of 10.9 percent (he has only had a swinging strike percentage under 10 once, back in 2006 when it was 9.4 percent). This season he has been unbelievable in that category, posting a 14 percent swinging strike percentage.
As for Cain? His swinging strike percentage last year was 9.1. His highest swinging strike percentage was 9.4 percent in 2008, and this year, it has suffered a big drop through the first three games as it hovers at 7.1 percent.
What does the mean? Well, considering the league average in this category is around 8.5 percent from season to season, Sanchez is a superior pitcher when it comes to missing bats while Cain may be little better than league average in terms of making batters miss.
Overall, there could be a lot of reasons why Sanchez has performed better this season and is a better strikeout pitcher than Cain. It could be Sanchez's delivery, which has been recognized as very deceptive by many baseball experts and scouts throughout Major League Baseball. It could be that Sanchez's breaking stuff and secondary pitches are far superior than Cain's, which explains why Sanchez is able to strikeout guys at a better rate than Cain despite having a slower fastball.
Whatever the reason, in my opinion, if Sanchez can't be considered better than Cain, then he should be at the same level or very close to the level of the Giants' 25-year-old right hander. While Cain does walk less guys and has been a better groundball pitcher this season, neither of those things have been very characteristic of Cain in his career. He has never had a GB/FB ratio over one (Sanchez on the other hand did it twice in 2007 and 2008), and while his walks have declined every year since his first full year in the rotation, he certainly is not a sub-two BB/9 pitcher.
Granted, Cain and Sanchez in the grand scheme of things is a wonderful thing for the Giants and San Francisco baseball fans. They both will provide great numbers and great outings throughout the course of the 2010 season.
That being said, things will get tough after the 2010 season when Sanchez will hit his second year of arbitration. If he ends up having a better year than Cain in 2010, the Giants will be hard-pressed to give him a "Cain-esque" contract by Sanchez's management team.
And, with re-signing Tim Lincecum, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey to long-term deals a priority down the road, it will be interesting to see if managing partner Bill Neukom will be open to shelling out that kind of cash to the 27-year-old left-hander from Puerto Rico.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Why Jonathan Sanchez is Due for a Breakout in 2010
There is a lot of skepticism concerning Jonathan Sanchez, and for good reason. While he threw a No-Hitter last season and was re-signed to a $2.1 million extension this off-season, a lot of Giants fans still question Sanchez's ability to pitch at the next level.
After all, he was deemed to be a breakout candidate last season, and it took him until July 10 to really show any progress as a pitcher. Furthermore, if you look at his overall statistics from 2009, it isn't all that impressive:
8-12 W-L record, 4.24 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 1.37 WHIP.
Those aren't exactly the numbers of somebody on the cusp of success.
However, for all those who may not believe in Sanchez, and thought he should have been traded last season at the July Trade Deadline (despite his No-Hitter, he still didn't have as much value at the time as many Giants fans would've liked to believe), here are a few reasons why Sanchez is capable of breaking out in 2010.
1. Sanchez is getting better and more confident with his secondary pitches.
Sanchez only threw his fastball 66 percent of the time in 2009, his lowest total in his four seasons at the Major League level. Now, one may wonder why he threw his fastball less, though he was averaging the fastest average velocity of his four-year career.
Well, Sanchez may have better pitches in his arsenal than just his fastball, and he made a step forward to prove that in 2009.
Last season, he threw his slider 21.3 percent of the time, the highest percentage of any secondary pitch he has thrown in his Major League career. He threw it for good reason though, for his pitch value behind his slider proves that it was his most successful pitch in 2009.
While his fastball only average 1.2 runs above average, his slider averaged 11.0 runs above average in 2009.
Thus, Sanchez proved last year that he has an excellent secondary pitch to go along with a good fastball that is only going to improve, as evidenced by his increase in fastball velocity from 90.8 MPH in 2008 to 91.7 MPH last year.
Another promising sign of Sanchez's progress was also his willingness to throw a curve ball last season. For the last two years, Sanchez's arsenal was limited to three pitches: fastball, curve ball, changeup. The last time he had more than three pitches was his rookie season in 2006, where he threw a curve ball as well (though only 1.1 percent of the time).
Granted, Sanchez didn't throw a curve ball very much last year (only 0.8 percent). However, considering his changeup has never been too effective in his career (he has never had a positive runs above average in terms of pitch value with his changeup), a curve ball may be what he needs to continue his progression as a starting pitcher.
His curve isn't bad (as evidenced by the 1.28 runs above average per 100 pitches on his curve last season) and he still is learning to really throw it.
Why do I think he still is learning?
4.2 percent of his pitches were unknown according to Fangraphs.
I guarantee you most of those "unknown" pitches were attempted curve balls. If he can pan out his form on the curve this Spring, then Sanchez will have a very effective third pitch behind his fastball and slider.
2. Sanchez had some fluky stats in 2009 that probably won't occur again in 2010.
Sanchez's advanced stats from 2010 are a bit weird.
Sanchez didn't particularly have the greatest ERA, but opponents' batting average against him in 2009 was the lowest of his Major League career at .227.
His BABIP was below the league average at .290, but he had a high HR/9 ratio at 1.05, and a similarly high HR/FB rate at 10.3 percent.
And, Sanchez's GB/FB ratio was the lowest of his Major League career at 0.95 (probably caused by his 43.1 percent fly ball rate, which was his highest fly ball rate since his rookies season).
What does this all mean? I'm not sure. Sanchez has been throughout his career and will continue to be a high strikeout guy. He proved that in 2009 by his 9.75 strikeout rate (the second-highest strikeout rate for a Giants starting pitcher behind Tim Lincecum). So, naturally, with a tendency to strike guys out (not to mention walk guys) his batted ball statistics will always be out of whack from season to season simply because hitters won't make as much contact against him in comparison to an "average" starting pitcher.
Don't believe that claim? The stats say it all. Every year since 2006, Sanchez's contact rate has been below the league average (the league average contact rate for a pitcher is 80 percent; Sanchez has always been in the 70 percent range), and last season, he had the lowest contact rate out of any pitcher on the Giants team at 73.8 percent (to put things in perspective, Matt Cain had a contact rate of 80.7 percent).
Will Sanchez go down in a lot of those numbers from a year ago in 2010? Maybe, maybe not. However, judging from the progress he made from July through September, and his increase in pitch variety and comfort in them, dont' be surprised to see more average-looking stats from Sanchez (especially in terms of the HR/FB percentages).
3. Sanchez is meant for the fourth spot in the rotation.
Last year, Sanchez was the fifth starter in the rotation behind Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Cain, and Barry Zito. After Johnson's injury, Sanchez was moved to the fourth spot, while Zito was moved to the second spot in the starting rotation.
Sanchez was infinitely better when he was moved to the fourth spot.
Why was that so? Because Sanchez didn't have to face No.1 starters when he pitched. What many people don't realize is that being a No. 5 starter can be more of a challenge than people would want to believe. Thanks to all kinds of scheduling differences (and considering the Giants starting on the second day of the year in 2009 rather than the first, they had a lot of them) starting pitchers will usually not face their counterpart on another team. You won't always see Lincecum vs. Dan Haren. Some days you'll see Haren vs. Sanchez (as we saw at times last year) or Lincecum vs. Doug Davis.
Unfortunately, Sanchez wasn't ready to handle that pressure in the pitching rotation (and the pressure of not having run support in those matchups against an opposing "ace") and his confidence was shot early and often in the first half of the season. When he was moved to the fourth spot in the rotation and he was facing No.3 through 5 starters, he looked more comfortable, and therefore, had more success.
Starting 2010 in the No.4 spot in the rotation (behind Lincecum, Cain and Zito) will boost Sanchez's confidence. And, considering confidence is a big issue with him, the more confident and comfortable he is on the mound, the better results he will produce as a starting pitcher.
After all, he was deemed to be a breakout candidate last season, and it took him until July 10 to really show any progress as a pitcher. Furthermore, if you look at his overall statistics from 2009, it isn't all that impressive:
8-12 W-L record, 4.24 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 1.37 WHIP.
Those aren't exactly the numbers of somebody on the cusp of success.
However, for all those who may not believe in Sanchez, and thought he should have been traded last season at the July Trade Deadline (despite his No-Hitter, he still didn't have as much value at the time as many Giants fans would've liked to believe), here are a few reasons why Sanchez is capable of breaking out in 2010.
1. Sanchez is getting better and more confident with his secondary pitches.
Sanchez only threw his fastball 66 percent of the time in 2009, his lowest total in his four seasons at the Major League level. Now, one may wonder why he threw his fastball less, though he was averaging the fastest average velocity of his four-year career.
Well, Sanchez may have better pitches in his arsenal than just his fastball, and he made a step forward to prove that in 2009.
Last season, he threw his slider 21.3 percent of the time, the highest percentage of any secondary pitch he has thrown in his Major League career. He threw it for good reason though, for his pitch value behind his slider proves that it was his most successful pitch in 2009.
While his fastball only average 1.2 runs above average, his slider averaged 11.0 runs above average in 2009.
Thus, Sanchez proved last year that he has an excellent secondary pitch to go along with a good fastball that is only going to improve, as evidenced by his increase in fastball velocity from 90.8 MPH in 2008 to 91.7 MPH last year.
Another promising sign of Sanchez's progress was also his willingness to throw a curve ball last season. For the last two years, Sanchez's arsenal was limited to three pitches: fastball, curve ball, changeup. The last time he had more than three pitches was his rookie season in 2006, where he threw a curve ball as well (though only 1.1 percent of the time).
Granted, Sanchez didn't throw a curve ball very much last year (only 0.8 percent). However, considering his changeup has never been too effective in his career (he has never had a positive runs above average in terms of pitch value with his changeup), a curve ball may be what he needs to continue his progression as a starting pitcher.
His curve isn't bad (as evidenced by the 1.28 runs above average per 100 pitches on his curve last season) and he still is learning to really throw it.
Why do I think he still is learning?
4.2 percent of his pitches were unknown according to Fangraphs.
I guarantee you most of those "unknown" pitches were attempted curve balls. If he can pan out his form on the curve this Spring, then Sanchez will have a very effective third pitch behind his fastball and slider.
2. Sanchez had some fluky stats in 2009 that probably won't occur again in 2010.
Sanchez's advanced stats from 2010 are a bit weird.
Sanchez didn't particularly have the greatest ERA, but opponents' batting average against him in 2009 was the lowest of his Major League career at .227.
His BABIP was below the league average at .290, but he had a high HR/9 ratio at 1.05, and a similarly high HR/FB rate at 10.3 percent.
And, Sanchez's GB/FB ratio was the lowest of his Major League career at 0.95 (probably caused by his 43.1 percent fly ball rate, which was his highest fly ball rate since his rookies season).
What does this all mean? I'm not sure. Sanchez has been throughout his career and will continue to be a high strikeout guy. He proved that in 2009 by his 9.75 strikeout rate (the second-highest strikeout rate for a Giants starting pitcher behind Tim Lincecum). So, naturally, with a tendency to strike guys out (not to mention walk guys) his batted ball statistics will always be out of whack from season to season simply because hitters won't make as much contact against him in comparison to an "average" starting pitcher.
Don't believe that claim? The stats say it all. Every year since 2006, Sanchez's contact rate has been below the league average (the league average contact rate for a pitcher is 80 percent; Sanchez has always been in the 70 percent range), and last season, he had the lowest contact rate out of any pitcher on the Giants team at 73.8 percent (to put things in perspective, Matt Cain had a contact rate of 80.7 percent).
Will Sanchez go down in a lot of those numbers from a year ago in 2010? Maybe, maybe not. However, judging from the progress he made from July through September, and his increase in pitch variety and comfort in them, dont' be surprised to see more average-looking stats from Sanchez (especially in terms of the HR/FB percentages).
3. Sanchez is meant for the fourth spot in the rotation.
Last year, Sanchez was the fifth starter in the rotation behind Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Cain, and Barry Zito. After Johnson's injury, Sanchez was moved to the fourth spot, while Zito was moved to the second spot in the starting rotation.
Sanchez was infinitely better when he was moved to the fourth spot.
Why was that so? Because Sanchez didn't have to face No.1 starters when he pitched. What many people don't realize is that being a No. 5 starter can be more of a challenge than people would want to believe. Thanks to all kinds of scheduling differences (and considering the Giants starting on the second day of the year in 2009 rather than the first, they had a lot of them) starting pitchers will usually not face their counterpart on another team. You won't always see Lincecum vs. Dan Haren. Some days you'll see Haren vs. Sanchez (as we saw at times last year) or Lincecum vs. Doug Davis.
Unfortunately, Sanchez wasn't ready to handle that pressure in the pitching rotation (and the pressure of not having run support in those matchups against an opposing "ace") and his confidence was shot early and often in the first half of the season. When he was moved to the fourth spot in the rotation and he was facing No.3 through 5 starters, he looked more comfortable, and therefore, had more success.
Starting 2010 in the No.4 spot in the rotation (behind Lincecum, Cain and Zito) will boost Sanchez's confidence. And, considering confidence is a big issue with him, the more confident and comfortable he is on the mound, the better results he will produce as a starting pitcher.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Retro B/R Article: Jonathan Sanchez's No-Hitter Reminds an Estranged Giants Fan What Fandom Is Like
This is one of the pieces I'm really proud of and unfortunately, it never really circulated as much as I really wanted it to. The article only got 334 reads, and I find that disappointing, especially when I've had other stuff that's gotten 1,000 or more reads but aren't as personal or aren't as good in all honesty.
Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself for this. I made the mistake of publishing the story immediately after the game and that killed me because everyone was putting up a write up about Sanchez that night. So, a personal story like mine gets lost in the shuffle or quick write-ups because every Bleacher Report writer knew Sanchez was going to get a lot of hits that night.
Oh well...that's the nature of the biz. I will say this though, re-reading this, I still wouldn't change a thing. One of my friends remarked that of all the stories I wrote on Bleacher Report, this was his favorite one. I think stuff gets a little too sappy at point, but at the time, I had to write like that. The high from the Sanchez no hitter was just coursing through me that I was forced to be overly-romantic about the moment.
Hope you like reading it as much as I liked writing it.
From Bleacher Report
As a Giants fan, I couldn't be prouder of Jonathan Sanchez. There wasn't a guy on this team who needed this moment more.
After all the tough starts this season, amidst all the trade rumors that had been centering on him since June and with his Major League career possibly on the line in a meaningless game against the last-place Padres in July, Sanchez was perfect on Friday night.
Yet despite his record feat, this isn't a column about Sanchez's no-hitter. Sanchez's no-hitter is part of the story, but it is only a piece, not the crutch of the tale.
This rather is a story of a fan's relationship with the Giants team itself.
For as most people know, being a fan of a team is similar to being in a serious relationship. There are ups and downs. There are good times and bad times. There are moments when you can't feel happier. There are unfortunate periods where you are just completely miserable.
My relationship with the Giants has been estranged for two years. I hadn't quit on the Giants or given up on the organization though.
Rather, for the past two summers, I was in a different state studying and working at my college, Gonzaga University, which is located in the state of Washington.
Let's just say it isn't exactly a state that bleeds orange and black.
For the past two years, watching Giants games had been a chore and a luxury. If I could find a bar that had the MLB Extra Innings package and was playing a Giants game, I thanked my lucky stars.
Rarely did that ever happen, though. I think it only happened on one occasion, and by that time the Giants were already out of the NL West race.
Instead, most of my summer nights the past two seasons were spent at college bars where there were barely any televisions at all, let alone one that would be showing a Giants game.
On some nights, I was cooped up in a cubicle on the fourth floor of the Spokesman-Review newspaper building recording box scores of American Legion baseball tournament games until 11 p.m. The only way I was able to follow the Giants was through Gamecasts and postgame recaps on ESPN.
Let's just say watching a Gamecast didn't exactly satisfy my yearning for Bay Area baseball.
In some ways, for the past two years, the Giants and I were apart much like a husband and wife going through a separation period. We weren't divorced, but we were certainly keeping a distance from each other.
Deep down, as those two years passed, I still loved the Giants.
That being said, I couldn't be with them, and during that time span, I wasn't sure when I would be back with them again, either.
My future with this franchise was unpredictable, much like a separated couple that had fallen on hard times, unsure what to do with their relationship.
When I came back home after graduating college, with no plans until August, I was able to once again watch Giants games on television.
It was refreshing to finally see commercials on television of Giants players like Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum rather than ones of Mariners players like Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre.
Yet for some reason, it was hard to get back into the groove of things as a Giants fan.
After all, I was two years removed from watching, following and being exposed to the Giants on a regular basis, so it was safe to say it took me back a little simply because I was prepared for it after such a long hiatus.
I enjoyed watching the games again, but as I watched the games, I questioned how deep my love for the Giants really went. It wasn't a question of whether I was going to stick with the team, it was a question of how my love for the Giants compared to other teams I liked in other sports.
Was I as big a Giants fans as I was a Niners fan? Was I a bigger fan of my alma mater, Gonzaga? Did I like the California Golden Bears above all my favorite teams?
In the beginning of this summer, I was unsure. I certainly liked the Giants, but where they stood in the pantheon of my favorite teams was hard to determine.
In the past, I always considered the Giants my favorite sports team without question. Yet when the baseball season started to take full swing, I found it more difficult to fully stand by that notion after years of up-close exposure to Gonzaga basketball.
Then, in late June, two days after Father's Day, I took my Dad to the Oakland A's-San Francisco Giants game.
Randy Johnson pitched the Giants to an easy 6-3 win, yet the victory was not as important as the feeling I got after Wilson shut the door in the ninth. For the first time since my senior year in high school, I went to a Giants game and once again recaptured the joy of watching Giants baseball in person.
Furthermore, I also realized that I loved this 2009 team.
As strange as this sounds to a lot of baseball fans, this is the kind of Giants team I always wished for. They have a scrappy, fun, no-name lineup, and a rotation that includes two budding aces and a legend.
Then again, it's not just the talent that endears me so much to this year's squad.
Every year there were guys on the team that I didn't like who prevented me from fully embracing the Giants that respective year. Last season, they had Dave Roberts, a former Dodger. The season before they had the overpaid, overrated Matt Morris in the rotation.
This season however, there hasn't been that guy, that player that holds me back from fully embracing this team.
Sure, there are guys I expect more from, but I don't hate any of the players. They're all likable guys on and off the field, and it seems everyone on the team realizes that as well.
Because in all honesty, I don't think I've seen a Giants team this jovial in the dugout in well...ever.
Or at least in my lifetime.
That's how special this season has become to me.
When you think about it, being back in California after graduation was sort of the beginning of my reconciliation with the Giants (much like a couple calling a truce after a separation period).
Furthermore, going to the A's-Giants game was like that moment when the couple finally moves back together into the house.
Just because I was back in the house however with the Giants, it didn't mean everything was back to normal like it was when I was a fan back before I left for college in Washington.
This was a team I liked, but I still wasn't totally comfortable just yet.
Despite that being the case, I was doing my best to mend that rift that happened for two years between the Giants and me. I watched games every day religiously. I studied this team, analyzed weaknesses, strengths, anything and everything about this Giants squad and organization as a whole.
Then I began writing about this team.
You see, after writing for three years for my college newspaper, I found myself in kind of a bind. I needed to write, but I had no subject.
I was away from the Northwest sports scene and away from Gonzaga basketball, so it didn't make sense to write about those subjects anymore like I used to.
So I started writing about the Giants every day.
Little did I realize though that it would bring me back together with this Giants franchise just like old times.
It was like couples therapy. I was actively doing my part, and was actively analyzing my partner, the Giants, in addition to myself.
I found out things about this franchise, this team and my own history as a fan of the Giants that were important, even if I didn't think they were very worthwhile before.
I got closer to this team. I got more involved than I ever could imagine as I started writing more and more, just like a husband and wife gets closer after those numerous sessions with a couples therapist.
However, it was not complete yet. The writing was great, but it was only buildup, not the ultimate goal just yet.
After tonight though, I found that completeness.
Once Sanchez's nasty curveball struck out the Padres' leadoff hitter Cabrera to end the game, there was nothing more emotionally I needed to do to try to regain what I lost after those past two years.
Sanchez's no-hitter finally brought me fully back to this team.
That moment reminded me why I continue to cheer for this team, despite the distance and challenges I faced those two summers I spent in Washington where I couldn't see a Giants game to save my life. Is it selfish of me to think of Sanchez's beautiful moment as something personal for me?
Probably. And I admit that a lot of this column most likely doesn't make sense to the common sports fan.
However, being a true sports fan rarely ever makes sense. It shouldn't make sense why I should feel such elation, relief and utter excitement after just watching a no-hitter.
Yet it does.
The no-hitter symbolizes more than that for a fan as torn as myself.
Watching that no hitter from beginning to end for me was that final confirmation that I am a Giants fan, and that nothing can sever my relationship with this team.
The no-hitter proved that those two years of separation and frustration in being away from this team was preparation for the ultimate moment that happened tonight at AT&T Park.
Because if things were the same as they were a year ago, I would have missed that moment. I would have been busy with "something else" and had to wait for another game to see my first no-hitter from beginning to end.
It is quite special the moment itself, getting to watch the no-hitter from beginning to end as a fan. It's like winning the lottery.
You don't expect it at first. Yet when it happens, you just don't know what to think because you're so happy.
I hope this is the spark Sanchez needs to revitalize his season and perhaps his career in San Francisco.
I hope all those fans clamoring for Sanchez to be traded maybe aren't clamoring as loudly as before.
Sanchez got a second chance, and showed us what to do when we get second chances: make the most of it.
This 2009 Giants squad has given me a second chance as well.
They given me a chance to love a Giants baseball team again as much as I did when I was a kid, when things weren't about stats and performance, but just about the team that took the field.
Some people don't get those chances. For whatever reason, they get distanced from a team and fade away either to a different team, or away from the sport altogether.
I'm not saying that was going to happen to me, but I saw myself drifting in that direction more than once.
Not after tonight though. Not after the no-hitter Sanchez pitched, the first for a Giant since 1976. After tonight, I'll be damned if I don't take advantage of this second chance as a Giants fan.
Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself for this. I made the mistake of publishing the story immediately after the game and that killed me because everyone was putting up a write up about Sanchez that night. So, a personal story like mine gets lost in the shuffle or quick write-ups because every Bleacher Report writer knew Sanchez was going to get a lot of hits that night.
Oh well...that's the nature of the biz. I will say this though, re-reading this, I still wouldn't change a thing. One of my friends remarked that of all the stories I wrote on Bleacher Report, this was his favorite one. I think stuff gets a little too sappy at point, but at the time, I had to write like that. The high from the Sanchez no hitter was just coursing through me that I was forced to be overly-romantic about the moment.
Hope you like reading it as much as I liked writing it.
From Bleacher Report
As a Giants fan, I couldn't be prouder of Jonathan Sanchez. There wasn't a guy on this team who needed this moment more.
After all the tough starts this season, amidst all the trade rumors that had been centering on him since June and with his Major League career possibly on the line in a meaningless game against the last-place Padres in July, Sanchez was perfect on Friday night.
Yet despite his record feat, this isn't a column about Sanchez's no-hitter. Sanchez's no-hitter is part of the story, but it is only a piece, not the crutch of the tale.
This rather is a story of a fan's relationship with the Giants team itself.
For as most people know, being a fan of a team is similar to being in a serious relationship. There are ups and downs. There are good times and bad times. There are moments when you can't feel happier. There are unfortunate periods where you are just completely miserable.
My relationship with the Giants has been estranged for two years. I hadn't quit on the Giants or given up on the organization though.
Rather, for the past two summers, I was in a different state studying and working at my college, Gonzaga University, which is located in the state of Washington.
Let's just say it isn't exactly a state that bleeds orange and black.
For the past two years, watching Giants games had been a chore and a luxury. If I could find a bar that had the MLB Extra Innings package and was playing a Giants game, I thanked my lucky stars.
Rarely did that ever happen, though. I think it only happened on one occasion, and by that time the Giants were already out of the NL West race.
Instead, most of my summer nights the past two seasons were spent at college bars where there were barely any televisions at all, let alone one that would be showing a Giants game.
On some nights, I was cooped up in a cubicle on the fourth floor of the Spokesman-Review newspaper building recording box scores of American Legion baseball tournament games until 11 p.m. The only way I was able to follow the Giants was through Gamecasts and postgame recaps on ESPN.
Let's just say watching a Gamecast didn't exactly satisfy my yearning for Bay Area baseball.
In some ways, for the past two years, the Giants and I were apart much like a husband and wife going through a separation period. We weren't divorced, but we were certainly keeping a distance from each other.
Deep down, as those two years passed, I still loved the Giants.
That being said, I couldn't be with them, and during that time span, I wasn't sure when I would be back with them again, either.
My future with this franchise was unpredictable, much like a separated couple that had fallen on hard times, unsure what to do with their relationship.
When I came back home after graduating college, with no plans until August, I was able to once again watch Giants games on television.
It was refreshing to finally see commercials on television of Giants players like Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum rather than ones of Mariners players like Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre.
Yet for some reason, it was hard to get back into the groove of things as a Giants fan.
After all, I was two years removed from watching, following and being exposed to the Giants on a regular basis, so it was safe to say it took me back a little simply because I was prepared for it after such a long hiatus.
I enjoyed watching the games again, but as I watched the games, I questioned how deep my love for the Giants really went. It wasn't a question of whether I was going to stick with the team, it was a question of how my love for the Giants compared to other teams I liked in other sports.
Was I as big a Giants fans as I was a Niners fan? Was I a bigger fan of my alma mater, Gonzaga? Did I like the California Golden Bears above all my favorite teams?
In the beginning of this summer, I was unsure. I certainly liked the Giants, but where they stood in the pantheon of my favorite teams was hard to determine.
In the past, I always considered the Giants my favorite sports team without question. Yet when the baseball season started to take full swing, I found it more difficult to fully stand by that notion after years of up-close exposure to Gonzaga basketball.
Then, in late June, two days after Father's Day, I took my Dad to the Oakland A's-San Francisco Giants game.
Randy Johnson pitched the Giants to an easy 6-3 win, yet the victory was not as important as the feeling I got after Wilson shut the door in the ninth. For the first time since my senior year in high school, I went to a Giants game and once again recaptured the joy of watching Giants baseball in person.
Furthermore, I also realized that I loved this 2009 team.
As strange as this sounds to a lot of baseball fans, this is the kind of Giants team I always wished for. They have a scrappy, fun, no-name lineup, and a rotation that includes two budding aces and a legend.
Then again, it's not just the talent that endears me so much to this year's squad.
Every year there were guys on the team that I didn't like who prevented me from fully embracing the Giants that respective year. Last season, they had Dave Roberts, a former Dodger. The season before they had the overpaid, overrated Matt Morris in the rotation.
This season however, there hasn't been that guy, that player that holds me back from fully embracing this team.
Sure, there are guys I expect more from, but I don't hate any of the players. They're all likable guys on and off the field, and it seems everyone on the team realizes that as well.
Because in all honesty, I don't think I've seen a Giants team this jovial in the dugout in well...ever.
Or at least in my lifetime.
That's how special this season has become to me.
When you think about it, being back in California after graduation was sort of the beginning of my reconciliation with the Giants (much like a couple calling a truce after a separation period).
Furthermore, going to the A's-Giants game was like that moment when the couple finally moves back together into the house.
Just because I was back in the house however with the Giants, it didn't mean everything was back to normal like it was when I was a fan back before I left for college in Washington.
This was a team I liked, but I still wasn't totally comfortable just yet.
Despite that being the case, I was doing my best to mend that rift that happened for two years between the Giants and me. I watched games every day religiously. I studied this team, analyzed weaknesses, strengths, anything and everything about this Giants squad and organization as a whole.
Then I began writing about this team.
You see, after writing for three years for my college newspaper, I found myself in kind of a bind. I needed to write, but I had no subject.
I was away from the Northwest sports scene and away from Gonzaga basketball, so it didn't make sense to write about those subjects anymore like I used to.
So I started writing about the Giants every day.
Little did I realize though that it would bring me back together with this Giants franchise just like old times.
It was like couples therapy. I was actively doing my part, and was actively analyzing my partner, the Giants, in addition to myself.
I found out things about this franchise, this team and my own history as a fan of the Giants that were important, even if I didn't think they were very worthwhile before.
I got closer to this team. I got more involved than I ever could imagine as I started writing more and more, just like a husband and wife gets closer after those numerous sessions with a couples therapist.
However, it was not complete yet. The writing was great, but it was only buildup, not the ultimate goal just yet.
After tonight though, I found that completeness.
Once Sanchez's nasty curveball struck out the Padres' leadoff hitter Cabrera to end the game, there was nothing more emotionally I needed to do to try to regain what I lost after those past two years.
Sanchez's no-hitter finally brought me fully back to this team.
That moment reminded me why I continue to cheer for this team, despite the distance and challenges I faced those two summers I spent in Washington where I couldn't see a Giants game to save my life. Is it selfish of me to think of Sanchez's beautiful moment as something personal for me?
Probably. And I admit that a lot of this column most likely doesn't make sense to the common sports fan.
However, being a true sports fan rarely ever makes sense. It shouldn't make sense why I should feel such elation, relief and utter excitement after just watching a no-hitter.
Yet it does.
The no-hitter symbolizes more than that for a fan as torn as myself.
Watching that no hitter from beginning to end for me was that final confirmation that I am a Giants fan, and that nothing can sever my relationship with this team.
The no-hitter proved that those two years of separation and frustration in being away from this team was preparation for the ultimate moment that happened tonight at AT&T Park.
Because if things were the same as they were a year ago, I would have missed that moment. I would have been busy with "something else" and had to wait for another game to see my first no-hitter from beginning to end.
It is quite special the moment itself, getting to watch the no-hitter from beginning to end as a fan. It's like winning the lottery.
You don't expect it at first. Yet when it happens, you just don't know what to think because you're so happy.
I hope this is the spark Sanchez needs to revitalize his season and perhaps his career in San Francisco.
I hope all those fans clamoring for Sanchez to be traded maybe aren't clamoring as loudly as before.
Sanchez got a second chance, and showed us what to do when we get second chances: make the most of it.
This 2009 Giants squad has given me a second chance as well.
They given me a chance to love a Giants baseball team again as much as I did when I was a kid, when things weren't about stats and performance, but just about the team that took the field.
Some people don't get those chances. For whatever reason, they get distanced from a team and fade away either to a different team, or away from the sport altogether.
I'm not saying that was going to happen to me, but I saw myself drifting in that direction more than once.
Not after tonight though. Not after the no-hitter Sanchez pitched, the first for a Giant since 1976. After tonight, I'll be damned if I don't take advantage of this second chance as a Giants fan.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Retro B/R Article: How a Jonathan Sanchez in the Pen Could Benefit the Giants On and Off the Field
I wrote this article after Jonathan Sanchez had moved to the bullpen and saw his first relief action. At the time, every Giants fan was screaming for Sanchez to be traded. The only problem at the time? Sanchez had no value on the trade market. I mean, who would want a pitcher with little history of success and command problems?
In this article, I basically petitioned for Sanchez to move to the bullpen. I did it for two reasons:
1.) I noticed Sanchez started off games well, but seemed to blow up when he got into the fourth inning and on. So, I felt the best decision was the move him to the pen, where he would only face a lineup once.
2.) Brian Wilson was struggling as closer at the time, and I felt Sanchez would be a good change of pace. I figured a combo of Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt and Sanchez would be a much better late-inning option than Wilson. However, by mid-season, Wilson blew me away and proved he was the guy to take the ball in the ninth.
What happened after this article? You'll have to find out in successive posts, but it's definitely interesting to see the feedback I got in this post (click on the Bleacher Report link to see the comments I got from commenters about Sanchez at the time).
From Bleacher Report
I’m not giving up on Jonathan Sanchez just yet. His stuff really is undeniable. He can frustrate hitters with his pitches and he has a presence on the mound that at times, looks like the makings of an ace.
In this article, I basically petitioned for Sanchez to move to the bullpen. I did it for two reasons:
1.) I noticed Sanchez started off games well, but seemed to blow up when he got into the fourth inning and on. So, I felt the best decision was the move him to the pen, where he would only face a lineup once.
2.) Brian Wilson was struggling as closer at the time, and I felt Sanchez would be a good change of pace. I figured a combo of Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt and Sanchez would be a much better late-inning option than Wilson. However, by mid-season, Wilson blew me away and proved he was the guy to take the ball in the ninth.
What happened after this article? You'll have to find out in successive posts, but it's definitely interesting to see the feedback I got in this post (click on the Bleacher Report link to see the comments I got from commenters about Sanchez at the time).
From Bleacher Report
I’m not giving up on Jonathan Sanchez just yet. His stuff really is undeniable. He can frustrate hitters with his pitches and he has a presence on the mound that at times, looks like the makings of an ace.
Yet while he does not want to hear this, Sanchez is done as a starter. On Sunday he proved that as he retired the Brewers five, six and seven hitters all by strikeout in the ninth inning of the Giants 7-0 win over the Brewers.
But that is not a bad thing. Sanchez is a mediocre starter, a third guy in the rotation at best, whether it is on the Giants or any other team.
As a reliever though, he can be nails, not to mention the premiere left-handed option that has the makings of not only a quality set-up man, but dare I say it, a closer.
Sanchez in the ninth? It isn’t as far-fetched as it seems.
I believe we have seen the ceiling on our current closer Brian Wilson. He has been a great option for the past couple of years, and has been our best closer since Robb Nen was closing out games, and coming onto the field with “Smoke on the Water” playing over the loudspeakers.
As a result, Giants fans have fawned over Wilson. However, they have not become fans of the quirky pitcher because he is a dominant closer, but rather because Giants fans have had to sit through god-awful ninth-inning men since Nen’s departure.
Matt Herges? Brad Hennessey? Armando Benitez? Those guys were as skilled in the ninth inning as Miss Teen South Carolina was with the English language at the Miss Teen USA competition last year.
Thus, while Wilson has done the job so far, in no way should he be considered the closer of the future for the Giants. He is not up there in the current class of top closers such as K-Rod from the Mets or Joe Nathan from the Twins (who could’ve been our closer if it wasn’t for Sabean’s incompetence).
Wilson has thrived on getting the bottom of the lineup out in the ninth and one or two out saves. Yet when the game gets pressure-filled, Wilson has failed more times than he has succeeded. Granted, I like Wilson for now, but the fact of the matter is, he is expendable, and should be explored in deals to help the Giants upgrade for a better offensive threat.
And with Wilson being a guy we can let go, that makes the Sanchez in relief idea more enticing.
The Tampa Bay Rays exhibited to us last year that you don’t necessarily need one guy to close out in the ninth. Manager Joe Madden showed that if you mix it up and pitch on matchups rather than just go to a single closer, you can be just as successful. The Rays last year rode a trip to the World Series with a lefty in JP Howell and a righty in Grant Balfour mixing it up in the eighth and ninth innings, depending on the matchups.
What does Sanchez have in common with them? They were both former starters who failed as starting pitchers, but excelled as relievers.
There is no denying Sanchez’s skill, but his mental concentration on the mound has been another thing. The guy is a constant roller coaster, having one or two good innings where he’s fanning the side, and other innings where he’s giving back-to-back homers.
Sanchez doesn’t have the mental makeup to be a starter. He struggles when he faces the lineup the second time around because he doesn’t make adjustments on the mound.
Howell and Balfour struggled with that as well when they were starters in Kansas City and Minnesota respectively. But they’ve embraced and excelled as relievers.
Look at Howell for example, who’s very similar to Sanchez in terms of stuff and history. Since Howell moved to the pen, he has produced seasons where he has had an ERA of 2.22 and 1.67 in 2007, and 2008 respectively. Hitters have hit under .200 in both of his seasons as a reliever as well.
And the best part of this comparison? Sanchez has a better fastball than Howell. If Howell can excel against big-time hitters from the AL East as a reliever, just imagine what Sanchez can do in the NL West as an eighth inning specialist or spot closer.
Of course, I wouldn’t throw Sanchez in as the closer right away. Combine him with a guy like Sergio Romo, who also have very good stuff, and we could have that young, cheap, one-two closer combo that could be as effective as the Howell-Balfour duo in Tampa.
In my mind, Sanchez should explore this option, embrace it and do all he can to excel. This is not a demotion, but a massive opportunity. For him, it is a chance to reinvigorate his career in the same way Mickey Rourke did when he realized he couldn’t be a heart-throb anymore because his face got so beat up by drugs, chain smoking and boxing.
And if Sanchez pursues this, and is able to excel with a right-hander like Romo rotating in the ninth inning, we can explore what trade value we can get with Wilson. Everybody wants to deal Sanchez, but what would give us a better chance at a better hitter who can be a legitimate clean-up threat?
A spot starter with an ERA near six? Or a closer who was a former All-Star.
I guarantee you a contender like the Yankees, whose bullpen is an absolute shambles right now, would panic and overcompensate for a guy like Wilson.
Granted, we will still need to see more out of Sanchez. One outing as a reliever is just that, one inning. But if he continues this trend, and if Romo continues to improve in more seventh inning relief work, then I think we could solve the question of “who do we trade to upgrade offensively” a lot easier than we think.
And it would go through Wilson, not Sanchez as we would like to think.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Retro B/R Article: What do the Giants Do with Jonathan Sanchez?
I wrote this article partially in defense of Jonathan Sanchez. At the time he was tanking with a 2-8 record and a ridiculously high ERA. Every Giant fan and their mother was urging the Giants to trade him, but even then, trading him didn't even seem like a possibility considering that when I wrote this, he had little to no trade value. After all, who would want a pitcher who at that time had an ERA of 5.54?
To show how bad things were for Sanchez, I took a look back at the author poll I made which asked if we should trade Sanchez or keep him. 75.9 percent said trade him, 24.1 percent said keep him.
Let's just say all that sentiment changed a couple of weeks later. (Note: I had a bit of a nagging curiosity with Sanchez in 2009, and I wrote about four articles about him in a two month span. This is the first of many to come)
From Bleacher Report
As the Giants continue to surprise people in the National League early on, and the need for an offensive upgrade becomes more evident with each passing series, a lingering question is on the minds of Giants fans everywhere:
Who do we give up to make this team better?
And the main player who is deemed expendable by a majority of Giants fans, bloggers, and columnists?
Jonathan Sanchez.
A lot was expected from Sanchez after he rose up the minor leagues at a quick pace. While a low draft pick (he was picked up by the Giants in the 27th round in 2004), Sanchez dominated at Double A level and proved to be a strong lefty relief guy in his first couple of stints with the Giants.
However, as a starter the results have been mixed.
In his first full year as a starter last season, Sanchez put up a decent 9-12 record and recorded a 157 strikeouts. Unfortunately, his penchant for giving up big runs was evident on more than one occasion as he finished the year with a 5.01 ERA, far too high for a good starting pitcher.
And this season has been an utter disaster for Sanchez.
He is 2-8 with a 5.54 ERA, and his confidence on the mound has dipped so drastically that the Giants are actually thinking about skipping his next start in the rotation, and putting him back into the bullpen. If anything, he seems to be a repeat of Barry Zito from a year ago, only Sanchez isn't the number one starter, and isn't being payed in the hundreds of millions.
The worst part of Sanchez's disastrous start this year was that we felt if we were going to upgrade offensively, Sanchez would be the key cog in any deal. Now it doesn't look like we can even use him as a second or third player in a trade. After all, who wants a starting pitcher with shelled confidence and an ERA near six?
Sanchez has the tools to be a good starting pitcher and it is possible to think that a team might take a waiver on him thinking they might get an Oliver Perez-kind of pitcher.
The situation is very similar to Perez a couple of seasons ago: he was struggling mightily with Pittsburgh mentally and while he had the tools, many thought he was done in terms of being a decent pitcher. Yet he goes to New York, gets to be in a different environment, and actually becomes a solid pitcher for the Mets the following year during their 2007 playoff run.
Could that be the case with Sanchez? Maybe, maybe not; it is early and difficult to tell at this point because he is pitching so poorly right now.
But it begs Giants fans who are so desperate to get rid of him to ask themselves, are you willing to get rid of a pitcher who could potentially give the Giants a killer 1-2-3 punch next season in exchange for a player who may be with the organization for only half a season?
No question Sanchez has confidence issues and something needs to be done to get him back on track to the potential he was showing last season, in which he looked dominating on certain occasions.
However, his lack of trade value might actually be a blessing for the Giants. Maybe he can get through this and bounce back after the All-Star break or next season, when the Giants can really be serious contenders with a more active off-season, and not just surprise fringe contenders like they are this year.
And if (perhaps when) next year comes and Sanchez suddenly starts to show that 2007 Oliver Perez form (15 wins, 3.56 ERA, 174 strikeouts), we'll start to breathe a sigh of relief we didn't trade him away for a Shea Hillenbrand-esque player like we wanted back in June.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Five good things San Francisco Giants fans will remember from 2009
With the Giants' season officially over, I think it is time to go in retrospective mode over the Giants' 2009 campaign. While there are some things to be disappointed about (mostly concerning the Giants inability to make the playoffs for a sixth-straight year), this really was a great season by the Bay. The Giants finally have seemed to take a turn for the better, and the lofty promises and patience that was preached by GM Brian Sabean in 2007 seem to finally be coming to fruition.
Thus, with that optimism in mind, I wanted to look over five good things Giants fans will remember from this 2009 season.
1. Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval are the "real deal"
--To be frank, I think a lot of Giants fans were worried about these two players (because I know I was). Tim Lincecum was coming off a Cy Young Award-winning season, and Pablo Sandoval was coming off a very hot 41-game, late-season stretch.
However, the main question was this: are these two players capable of putting together back-to-back good seasons? Or are they one-hit wonders in the mold of Mark Fidrych and Angel Berrora?
Well, both guys answered the call, and not only came up with more than stellar statistical seasons, but they have both solidified themselves as concrete figures for this Giants organization.
While Giants fans won't know until later this month if Lincecum will win his second-straight Cy Young, he certainly put up the numbers to merit consideration. This year, Lincecum carried the Giants rotation on his back again, and maintained his reputation as a strikeout, inning-eating artist.
Even though his record was not as good as his 2008 campaign (he was only 15-7 this year after going 18-5 in 2008), his ERA was better (2.48 this year in comparison to 2.62 in 2008), he allowed 14 less walks, and 'The Freak" posted a better WHIP as well (1.04 in comparison to 1.17 in 2008).
And when you also factor in that he lead the National League in strikeouts again (with 261), as well as shutouts (two) and complete games (four), then the case for Lincecum to repeat as the Cy Young seems incredibly stronger.
As for Sandoval, the "Kung Fu Panda" lived up to the preseason hype many experts bestowed upon him in Spring Training. Sandoval led the Giants in every offensive category, highlighted by a .330 batting average, 25 home runs, 90 RBI and .943 OPS. Sandoval pretty much carried the Giants offense the whole season, and if the Giants are able to get a hitter to offer some protection to stocky, third baseman, then it's crazy to think what Sandoval will be capable of in terms of offensive numbers in the future.
With a little help, we could see Sandoval verge into Vlad Guerrero territory. Seriously. That's how impressive his 2009 season was considering the lack of help around him.
2. Matt Cain is a solid No. 2 starter (though not an ace)
--A lot of Giants fans wondered if Cain was a victim of bad luck, or if he was simply not as good a pitcher as we once thought back when he first broke into the league in 2005. However, Cain was able to avoid the pitfalls of the last couple of years (e.g. lack of run support), and was able to put together a solid, All-Star caliber season as evidenced by his 14-8 record, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and four complete games.
However, despite Cain's solid year and numbers, Cain faded after having a hot first half of the season. He ended up going 2-6 in his last 13 starts, with five no decisions (which aren't completely his fault, considering he had some pretty good outings during those four NDs, including a game against Pittsburgh where he threw nine innings of shutout ball).
While that late-season fade doesn't destroy Cain's reputation completely as a pitcher, any argument that Cain could be a better ace of the staff than Lincecum was discredited by the end of the year.
Cain is a very good pitcher, and the Giants should look forward to the young, dynamic punch of Lincecum and Cain for a long time. That being said, Cain should only be thought of as a No. 2 starter, and not as a potential No.1 like some people were thinking back in the first half of the season.
3. This Giants bullpen could be very good
--This may be the most stable and promising the Giants bullpen has looked in Sabean's tenure as GM in San Francisco. The Giants are locked up at the closer position in Brian Wilson, who followed up his solid 2008 season with an even better 2009 campaign. Wilson pitched more innings this year than in 2008, and while he had less saves, (38 to 41 in 2008), he had a better ERA (2.74 to 4.62 in 2008), a better WHIP (1.20 to 1.44 in 2008) and a better SO/BB ratio (3.07 to 2.39 in 2008).
Yet Wilson is just the tip of the iceberg. The Giants will return Jeremy Affeldt, (who is coming off a season where he had a 1.73 ERA and 1.17 WHIP) and Sergio Romo, who will both be a lethal 7th and 8th inning set-up punch. Furthermore, the young arms in the bullpen showed a lot of promise as well. Waldis Joaquin has the potential to be a fireballer, and Dan Runzler impressed with his superb velocity and command in his short September callup. Even Joe Martinez, who struggled as a starter, showed some potential to be a very good long-reliever next year for the Giants.
I think it's safe to say that the prospects of the Giants bullpen are a lot better than the days when the Giants had guys like Jack Taschner and Matt Herges as the prime setup guys.
4. The Giants finally got some bang for their buck in terms of Free Agents
--I remember reading a post on a blog earlier this year about the Giants, and a fan complaining that the Giants' problem was they never struck it rich with any players they signed to cheap deals. They used the Russell Branyan in Seattle comparison and said that the Giants either overpaid their veterans, or got production from within, but never really got more than they paid for when it came to free agents.
Well...that changed this year thanks to Juan Uribe and Andres Torres.
Both Uribe and Torres made a combined 1,400,000 dollars this year and yet they brought an incredible amount of production to the Giants lineup. Uribe hit 16 home runs and 55 RBI, while Torres hit six home runs, eight triples, stole six bases (and was only caught once) and posted a .343 OBP (third best on the team).
In comparison, Edgar Renteria, who shared shortstop duties with Uribe at the end of the year, only hit .250 with five home runs, and 48 RBI and he was paid eight million dollars, over four times what Uribe and Torres made combined.
I bet Giants fans wish they could've done that one again, huh?
5. Randy Johnson getting his 300th win and Jonathan Sanchez's No-Hitter
--I think for the most part Randy Johnson will be known as a bust in his tenure in San Francisco. He pretty much only played for three months during the season, and he was far from the "Big Unit" we knew back in Seattle and Arizona.
However, RJ will be known for some key things: his tutelage to the pitching staff (especially Jonathan Sanchez), perhaps playing his last season for his hometown team (he is from Walnut Creek) and of course, notching his 300th win.
While it was against Washington, it was a cool little moment that added to his illustrious career and also brought some much needed attention to a Giants team that hadn't got any big-time press since Barry Bonds left.
Then, after RJ notched 300, the Giants got even more press, thanks to Jonathan Sanchez, who threw the first Giants no-hitter in 33 years (the last one to do it was John "The Count" Montefusco who threw one in 1976). Sanchez's no-hitter was an incredible moment, mainly because it came from a pitcher whom many Giants fans thought was a disappointment, and was on the verge of being traded.
Instead, Sanchez turned his season around after the no-hitter, and could be a dark horse pitcher next year that may be on the verge of having the kind of breakout Matt Cain had this season. Sanchez's stuff has always been undeniable, but in the second-half, he finally was able to put it together with his command.
If he can fully get a hold of his command to go along with his great stuff, the National League better take note. Yet what makes this prospect great though is that it seems like it is capable of happening, and I don't think Giants fans like myself would feel that way had it not been for the no-hitter in late June.
And to add even more fairy dust on those two great moments from Johnson and Sanchez, it was nice to see some Giants milestones that didn't have the word "tainted" attached to them.
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