OTF Top 30: No. 9, Eric Surkamp, LHP

No. 9: Eric Surkamp, left-handed pitcher.



Age: 24
Drafted: Sixth round (177th overall) in the 2008 MLB Draft
College: North Carolina State
2011 Regular season numbers: 10-4 W-L, 23 games, 142.1 innings pitched, 37 runs allowed, 110 hits allowed, 44 walks, 165 strikeouts, 2.02 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.37 FIP, 3.75 BB/K ratio (Double-A). 2-2 W-L, 6 games, 26.2 IP, 32 hits allowed, 18 runs allowed, 17 walks, 13 strikeouts, 5.74 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 4.68 FIP, 0.76 BB/K ratio (MLB).
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: None


Why you should know about Surkamp in 2012:

Surkamp is one of the more enigmatic pitching prospects in the Giants system. Scouts don't think he has the velocity to be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation or spot starter at the next level. On the other hand, stat guys point out that his dominance and command rates illustrate that he has the potential to be a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter in the Big Leagues. Surkamp's future probably lies somewhere in the middle (hopefully), but his brief Major League stint in 2011 didn't do anything to sway critical scouts in the other direction. Surkamp won't spend much time in the minors in 2012 (he most likely is starting in Fresno barring injury AND an incredible Spring), but he'll be an interesting arm to keep an eye out on, especially if Barry Zito or Ryan Vogelsong struggle in the rotation.


What are Surkamp's strengths as a prospect?

After being drafted in the sixth round out of NC State, Surkamp appeared to profile as a low-ceiling pitcher who could advance quickly in the minors. Not only has Surkamp advanced in the Giants system (even though he did start out his career in the Sally his first full season), but he has pretty much dominated at every level in the Minors.

Surkamp sports plus control and command, and has demonstrated that with excellent walk to strikeout ratios in the Minors, and his tenure in Richmond last season was probably his most impressive stint yet. In 142.1 innings pitched, he struck out 165 while only allowing 44 free passes, good for a BB/K ratio of 3.75 and a FIP of 2.37. Even though the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers, Surkamp's numbers in Richmond were no fluke, as he was dominant in Augusta in 2009 and San Jose in 2010 as well, posting BB/K ratios of 4.33 and 4.19, respectively. His San Jose numbers are especially impressive since the Cal League tends to favor hitters, and despite those circumstances working against him in 2010, he still managed to post a FIP of 2.54.

While he doesn't sport tremendous velocity on his fastball (it is graded a three-plus by Rob Gordon of the MiLBA and it sits in the 87-90 MPH range), his deceptive three-quarters pitching motion, excellent control and plus curve ball have contributed heavily to his dominance in the minors. Daniel Jarrett of MLB Prospect Portal gave Surkamp positive reviews in a game report of a Surkamp start against the Akron Aeros on May 29th, noting this about Surkamp in his report:

"Surkamp's fastball was topping out around 90 MPH, but he showed great command of his offspeed pitches, mixing them in to keep the Aeros lineup off balance all game. His changeup and curveball both rate as plus pitches but his fastball will be big league average at best, even if he's able to add an MPH or two as he continues to get stronger...

It's not often you see a pitcher with a league average fastball who is able to record as many strikeouts as Surkamp, but its a credit to the quality of his secondary pitches and his poise on the mound. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain those rates throughout his career but his definitely has the pitchability to be a successful big league pitcher. His upside is likely as a #2 or #3 starter, who can log plenty of quality innings while giving his team a chance to win each and every night."

Surkamp doesn't have the stuff or ceiling of a pitcher like Kyle Crick or previous pitching prospects in the Giants system such as Zack Wheeler (currently in the Mets organization) or Madison Bumgarner. However, he is a prospect who knows how to pitch and has displayed excellent poise and presence on the mound at every stop in the Minors. It's those intangibles that make Surkamp such an interesting prospect, and help make up what he lacks in terms of tools and velocity.



Where might Surkamp struggle?

Surkamp was called up to the Majors late last season and did not impress in his six-start "cup of coffee" with the Big League club. Not only was he extremely hittable (he allowed 10.8 hits per nine innings), but he displayed none of the dominance, control or command that made him such a great prospect in the minors. His BB/K ratio was putrid at 0.76, amplified by a walk rate of 5.7 (he never posted a walk rate higher than 3.2 in the minors, and that was in his first season of professional ball at Salem Keizer).

It made sense why Surkamp didn't dominate in the Majors like he did in the Minors in 2011. His stuff really isn't all that impressive. Despite sporting good size at six-feet, four inches and a 190 pounds, Surkamp tops out at 90 MPH on his fastball and is consistently in the 87-89 range. While that is passable for a Major League starter, it leaves little room for error and it certainly isn't the velocity one would expect from a major pitching prospect. Furthermore, Surkamp is a three pitch pitcher, and while his curve has gotten good reports, his changeup has gotten mixed results (most likely due to the fact that his fastball doesn't generate a lot of speed). While asking Surkamp to develop a fourth pitch at this stage of his professional career is a huge stretch, Surkamp most likely has to develop his current pitch repertoire even more to be successful. How he will induce groundballs at the Major League level will probably be the key to his success. since I doubt his 10.6 career K/9 will translate. According to Baseball America in their handbook, his two seam fastball does tail, sink and induce groundballs, but that was hardly evident at the big league level, as he only posted a GB/FB rate of 0.91 (though the 26.1 line drive rate probably had something to do with it being so low).

Hence, the big question about Surkamp is this: can his repertoire and approach transition to the Major League level? Or is Surkamp simply one of those pitchers that can succeed against marginal talent, but not against elite hitters with better approaches? The tenure in San Francisco suggests the latter, but it was only a short six-game sample, and Surkamp had logged 142.1 innings in Richmond and six innings in San Jose in addition to his stint with the Giants. Surkamp may have just been a bit worn out, and wasn't ready or in the proper shape to face Major League hitters. Of course, that's just theory, and Giants fans won't really know how Surkamp will fare in the long run at the Major League level until he logs a larger sample.


Grades on Surkamp's Tools:

Fastball: 15/20 (It certainly isn't impressive in terms of velocity, but his two seamer does offer some hope that he can induce groundballs at the next level. His size does suggest that he has the potential to increase the velocity on his fastball, but even then, it'll probably be an increase of 1-2 MPH at best. Whether the velocity increases or not, he'll need to rely on more than just his fastball at the next level in order to be successful.)
Curveball: 17/20 (His curve, according to Baseball America, is knowing for finishing off pitchers, and it has good sweeping action at 75-78 MPH according to Gordon. While we're not look at a Barry Zito-esque curve here, it is a plus secondary pitch that Surkamp will probably hinge on in order to be successful as a starting pitcher. He locates it well, so he has that going in his favor.)
Changeup: 16/20 (The report vary, but his changeup did show signs of effectiveness at times in 2011. While his lack of fastball velocity doesn't maximize the value of his changeup, Baseball America did report that it works well against right handed hitters. Considering how Tim Lincecum's success in 2010 hinged on his changeup despite a decrease in fastball velocity from the previous year, this could be the pitch in Surkamp's repertoire that makes or breaks Surkamp's projection as a Major League pitcher.)
Mechanics: 18/20 (His three quarters delivery is deceptive, and his tall frame further makes things difficult for opposing hitters when it comes to seeing his pitches. On tape, Surkamp has a steady delivery that moves smoothly and doesn't exert too much effort.  His easy delivery probably prohibits him from getting more behind his fastball, but I will take the added control and command of his delivery over one that inhibits more speed, but more wildness in his pitches.)
Command/Control: 19/20 (A huge plus tool of his. Surkamp is fearless and isn't afraid to attack hitters inside despite sporting an average fastball. While this wasn't the case in San Francisco (he was too nitpicky in his callup), his track record shows that he has the potential to bounce back in 2012 and display the command that made him such a fast riser in the Giants system. While I think the K/9 rates won't translate at the Major League level, I do think his control will, which will equalize the regression in strikeouts in the Big Leagues.)
Ceiling: 16/20 (He probably projects as a back-end starter, maybe a 3rd starter at best. Furthermore, at his age, he really doesn't have much more room for development, so it's kind of now or never right now for Surkamp. Still though, if he can recapture the control he showed in the Minors at the Big League level, he could be a valuable fourth or fifth starter for the Giants as soon as this season.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 16/20 (He suffered a torn labrum in his hip in 2010 which ended his San Jose campaign early, but he rebounded from surgery in 2011 and posted solid numbers. While he doesn't have a massive injury history, the hip injury in 2010 will be something to watch out for in the near future. Surkamp also was a sixth round pick, so that goes against him in terms of projection (usually less-heralded guys are less-heralded for a reason). That being said, Surkamp has a good work ethic and has adjusted well at every stop he has been at, so that definitely bodes well in his favor.)


Overall grade: B-
Projection: No. 4 or No. 5 Major League starting pitcher; could be spot starter or long innings reliever.

Summary: Surkamp has garnered quite the fan base amongst Giants fans which can be a good thing (Pablo Sandoval) or misleading (John Bowker). I love Surkamp's repertoire and approach as a pitcher, which I think makes up for his average tools as a pitcher. While I think the stint in San Francisco isn't a total indicator of Surkamp's potential in the Major Leagues, I think it was a warning sign for a lot of Giants fans who felt Surkamp was in line to achieve automatic success at the Big League level like Madison Bumgarner. He just doesn't have the tools like Bumgarner to be that dominant. However, if he can recapture his control and confidence, then it is likely to see Surkamp achieve some success on the Giants staff. He won't have have much room for error, but it certainly isn't out of the question.

Eric Surkamp's Fast Start in Richmond and His Stock as a Prospect

If you have to give a pitcher of the month award for pitchers in the Giants system, Eric Surkamp probably deserves the award. He's been absolutely dominant in the Eastern League in his first six starts with the Richmond Flying Squirrels.

After a bit of a slow start where he didn't pitch past five innings, Surkamp has had three quality starts in a row and has had ten strikeouts in each of his last three outings (against Trenton, New Britain and Altoona, the EL affiliates of the Yankees, Twins and Pirates, respectively). Surkamp has had four 10 strikeout games this year in his six starts (he had 10 Ks in 4.0 IP in his EL debut this year), and has shown good control, walking 3 or less in five of his six starts. The lone start where he had some control issues was an April 20th start where he went 4.1 IP and had five walks, six strikeouts and allowed 3 runs on six hits, including one home run. (I wonder if he was celebrating the "holiday" a little too much that day? Just kidding.)

This excellent start to the season really shouldn't be a surprise to anybody who has followed the Giants' minor league system or Surkamp's career closely. Here's a look at Surkamp's overall career in the minors:

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	20	2 Teams	0	2	5.71	7	17.1	1.615	11.9	0.5	2.6	11.9	4.60
2008	20	Giants	0	0	2.70	2	3.1	0.900	8.1	0.0	0.0	18.9
2008	20	Salem-Keizer	0	2	6.43	5	14.0	1.786	12.9	0.6	3.2	10.3	3.20
2009	21	Augusta	11	5	3.30	23	131.0	1.282	8.9	0.4	2.7	11.6	4.33
2010	22	San Jose	4	2	3.11	17	101.1	0.997	7.0	0.4	2.0	9.6	4.91
2011	23	Richmond	2	2	1.65	6	32.2	1.194	6.6	0.6	4.1	14.1	3.40
4 Seasons			17	11	3.19	53	282.1	1.190	8.1	0.4	2.6	11.2	4.33

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/9/2011.

As you can see, Surkamp has been very consistent over the course of his career, sans a bumpy 14 inning stint in the Northwest League. The keys to Surkamp's success in the minors have been his good strikeout rates (career 11.2 K/9), solid control (2.6 BB/9) and excellent command (4.33 K/BB ratio).

Many scouts and writers though have questioned Surkamp's ability to transition his minor league success to the Major League level. Minor League baseball analyst John Sickels only has him graded as a C+ prospect, and Surkamp is considered a "finesse" lefty because he doesn't have a power fastball or stuff in general. According to the blog "When the Giants Come to Town," Surkamp's fastball tops out in the high 80's and he has an average changeup (though he has a good curve ball, which is his best and most effective pitch, according to reports; Quick hat tip to Splashing Pumpkins for their post which made this info easier to find.)

However, to those who think Surkamp doesn't have the ability to garner any Major League success, I would point to another tall Giants lefty who dominated in the minors: Madison Bumgarner. Here's a glance at Bumgarner's minor league numbers.

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	18	Augusta	15	3	1.46	24	141.2	0.932	7.1	0.2	1.3	10.4	7.81
2009	19	2 Teams	12	2	1.85	25	131.1	1.020	6.9	0.4	2.3	6.3	2.71
2009	19	San Jose	3	1	1.48	5	24.1	0.986	7.4	0.0	1.5	8.5	5.75
2009	19	Connecticut	9	1	1.93	20	107.0	1.028	6.7	0.5	2.5	5.8	2.30
2010	20	Fresno	7	1	3.16	14	82.2	1.331	9.6	0.5	2.4	6.4	2.68
3 Seasons			34	6	2.00	63	355.2	1.057	7.6	0.4	1.9	8.0	4.09

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/9/2011.

Bumgarner had superior control (a 1.9 BB/9 is pretty darn impressive) and his ERA and WHIP numbers are better than Surkamp's (and he did so out of high school, while Surkamp posted his good numbers out of college). However, Surkamp's command is actually comparable with Bumgarner's (Surkamp has a better K/BB ratio in the minors) and Surkamp was a lot more dominant against Eastern League hitting when it came to striking guys out. Surkamp's K/9 with Richmond is almost three times Bumgarner's K/9 in Connecticut in 2009 (and Richmond is a more hitter friendly park than Connecticut), and his K/BB ratio is 1.10 points better than Bumgarner's 2.30 K/BB ratio in Double-A. (Of course, Surkamp has to maintain these numbers over the full course of a season in the Eastern League, so we'll have to wait and see if Surkamp will indeed have a better Double-A campaign than Bumgarner.)

Now, am I saying Surkamp is better than Bumgarner? Absolutely not. Bumgarner had better tools (Bumgarner's stuff is a lot better, including his fastball, which averages 92.6 MPH this year) and his ceiling is higher than Surkamp's (he's two years younger than Surkamp, and Bumgarner has No.1/No.2 starter potential). Also, Bumgarner has pitched in the majors and in the playoffs, while Surkamp hasn't pitched above Double-A.

That being said, on a statistical note, Surkamp is comparable and that should be a sign that Surkamp could maybe hold his own at the Major League level. Is he going to be a future No. 1 starter? Probably not unless he's playing for the Pirates. However, with Barry Zito hitting a wall, and Jonathan Sanchez's career as a Giant very uncertain (he's always constantly in trade talks), Surkamp might be given a chance with the big league club in the near future. (I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the 40-man next year or even some point this season if we waive someone.)

His first six starts in the Eastern League (and his entire minor league career in general) illustrate that the Giants wouldn't be crazy to lean on the tall, lanky lefty sooner rather than later.

Lookout for These Lefties: Two Pitching Prospects to Watch in 2010

Eric Surkamp and Aaron King.

Not exactly pitching prospects that jump at you like Madison Bumgarner or Zach Wheeler.

That being said, while these two pitchers, both draft picks in the 2008 MLB amateur draft, may not deemed "Elite Prospects" by big-name publications, Web sites and blogs, they could be under-the-radar pitchers who could contribute to the Giants in 2011 or 2012 should they continue to make progress in 2010. While both these guys aren't perfect or "sure things" by any stretch of the imagination, they certainly have the potential to make the Giants' 40-man roster in the future.


Eric Surkamp, LHP (22 years-old, 6th Round Pick of the 2008 Draft from North Carolina State)

Why You Should Know About Surkamp:

I admit, I'm not the first guy to "discover" Surkamp in the blogosphere and give him some hype. That honor (or at least the first one who made it aware to me) belongs to Nathaniel Stoltz, a Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report and writer for Chicken Friars, a blog on the San Diego Padres. He wrote a piece on Surkamp back in January, and though it was widely dismissed by some at the time, I did some more research on Surkamp and liked what he had to offer.

The thing about Surkamp is this: he doesn't have great stuff, but for some reason, he can strike guys out. Grant from the McCovey Chronicles said this about Surkamp in his annual Top 30 Prospects rankings early in Feburuary (He ranked Surkamp at No. 13):

"...So, fine, Surkamp doesn’t throw especially hard, and he’ll likely have a tough time as he moves up the ladder, maybe aping the Pat Misch career path. But until that happens, I’ll overrate Surkamp’s K-inducing curve, I’ll ignore that he’s a fly ball pitcher, and I’ll note that the bottom of FanGraphs’ velocity rankings have lefties who are still quite successful."

In many ways, Grant sums it all up: Surkamp doesn't throw hard but he has an ability to miss bats, which is ultimately what you want from a pitcher anyways. And while his numbers in Augusta were very impressive last year, they aren't flukish by any means. He posted a similar strikeout rate numbers in a five game stint with Salem-Keizer (10.3) and a two-game stint in Rookie League Arizona (18.9, thanks to seven strikeouts in 3.1 innings pitched).

His college numbers also produced more of the same at North Carolina State, where he pitched for three years. During his junior season, Surkamp posted a 10.5 strikeout rate in 73.2 innings pitched, very solid numbers for a college starting pitcher.

If anything, Surkamp reminds me of a young Noah Lowry, who also posted similar strikeout rate numbers during his first couple of years of Minor League ball. Like Surkamp, Lowry was also a player out of college and did not have intimidating stuff. Nevertheless, Lowry found a niche as a starting pitcher his first few years as a Giant by having good (though not great) control and command.

I could also see Surkamp having that "serviceable starting Major League pitcher" potential by 2011 or 2012. Furthermore, I could see Surkamp be even better than Lowry if he doesn't run into the kind of arm problems Lowry had during his last few years as a Giant.


Why You Should Be Cautious About Surkamp:

Surkamp's 2009 with Augusta was good...maybe perhaps too good to be real. Just look at the stats: 11.6 strikeout rate per nine innings, 2.7 walk rate per nine innings, 4.33 BB/K ratio, 2.20 FIP. Those are the numbers of a really good starting pitcher.

Yet there are a two stats that worry me: 1.28 WHIP and 129 hits allowed in 131 innings.

Those aren't exactly the numbers of a pitcher who is dominating, especially at Single-A.

What does that mean? Surkamp is either striking guys out or he's giving up hits. His BABIP shows that (he had a .380 BABIP last season, exceptionally high). That's fine if he's got incredible stuff, but other than a wicked curve, Surkamp doesn't sport "strikeout artist" velocity. His fastball runs in the mid 80's to high 80's (at best) range. Those aren't exactly comforting qualities in a pitcher, especially when he's very low in the Minor League system at this point.

So, Surkamp dominated in Augusta in 2009. But can he do it again? He could. His high strikeout rate in his first three levels of professional ball illustrates that he has a good understanding when it comes to getting guys out, and you could imagine him keeping that ability as he progresses into Advanced Single-A or Double-A next year.

Then again, it would not be surprising at all to see Surkamp get shellacked in Advanced Single-A or Double-A next year. That's the kind of risk Surkamp presents as a player. He'll either continue to improve and continue to strike guys out despite "okay" stuff, or he'll get tattooed and won't be the same ala Pat Misch or Lowry post-2005. He didn't exactly set the world on fire at NC State (he posted a 1.57 WHIP is last year at NC State, not exactly great), so it's totally plausible that he could come crashing down to earth once he faces better competition.

Aaron King, LHP (20 years-old, 7th Round Pick of the 2008 MLB Draft from Surry Community College)

Why You Should Know About King:

King can bring it. Plain and simple. He throws in the low to mid-90's (up to 95 MPH, or at least that's the "legend", according to the McCovey Chronicles) and he can strike guys out. In 31.2 innings pitched in Rookie League Arizona, King posted an 11.65 strikeout rate per nine innings (he also made six starts in rookie ball). Last season, his strikeout rate dipped to 7.57, but considering that he started all 22 games he pitched in and logged in 104.2 innings pitched in Augusta, the strikeout rate isn't all that bad (though it certainly is discouraging).

Another aspects in King's favor is that he isn't exactly easy to hit, especially in comparison to Surkamp. While Surkamp posted a better strikeout rate, King allowed less hits in comparison to innings pitched than Surkamp (he allowed 14 less hits than innings pitched while Surkamp only allowed two less), and that is comforting. Then again, King benefited from a better BABIP than Surkamp last year (.281 in comparison to Surkamp's .380 BABIP), but if anything, last year, King showed that hitters aren't going to find gaps as easily as they did with Surkamp.

That being said, the kid is far from polished.  At this point, he sort of resembles a less-refined Alex Hinshaw (whether that's good or bad, I'll leave that you to judge; In my opinion, it's not bad). Granted, he's only 20-years-old, and with the kind of stuff and strikeout potential he possesses, King could be a very good pitcher with the right tutelage and if he finds the right role.

And you know what? Both those things could happen as early as next year. The Giants organization has a good reputation of finding and developing pitchers, (as evidenced by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez, etc.). Additionally, King may be better suited in the bullpen than in the starting rotation. With less innings pitched and opponents only seeing him once in a game rather than two or three times, it would not be surprising to see his strikeout rates increase should he make a move to the pen.

Why You Should Be Cautious About King: 

There's already a reputation around the Web concerning King's mechanics. Apparently, they're really, really, BAD. In this day and age of Kerry Woods and Mark Priors (both former Cubs!), you can't afford to take chances and spend money on guys with arm problem potential. It killed Chicago financially and they in some ways never really recovered from it.

Now, nobody is comparing King to Wood or Prior (they all had way more hype), but arm problem potential is still arm problem potential. Will King have a future of injuries and extended time on the disabled list? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not God, so I can't say. However, it's a huge red flag for his future, and it definitely keeps the expectations for him lower than they probably should be.

Furthermore, King's control is also a concern. The knock on him already is that he is very, very, VERY wild. Last year, he sported a 4.5 walk rate, but that isn't even the worst part. King also plunked 10 batters and threw 12 wild pitches. Those are the kinds of numbers that only Nuke LaLoosh and Ricky Vaughn would be proud of.

Now, is wildness an automatic career killer? No, but it certainly doesn't help. Just look at the stories of pitchers who never lived up to expectations because they couldn't throw the ball for strikes. Daniel Cabrera is the poster boy for "guys who have great stuff but can't throw a strike to save his life." Hinshaw went through the same control, command problems in 2009 and it may have shot him in the foot in terms of keeping his spot on the 40-man roster this season (especially with Guillermo Mota and Santiago Casilla signed to minor league contracts this off-season).

Is that going to happen to King? Like I said, I don't know. At 20-years-old, he still has room to improve, especially with good coaching. However, the history of guys succeeding with control problems isn't good. The history of guys succeeding with mechanics issues isn't good.

The history of guys succeeding with control problems AND mechanics issues?

Well...let's just say I don't want to see the odds on that one.