Remember '51 - An often biased look at baseball and the SF Giants

Remember '51 is Moving...

2011-05-03T14:48:00.000-07:00

When I started this blog, I pretty much did it because I was getting frustrated with Bleacher Report and how they were heavily editing my writing. Yeah, it was nice to get the traffic from B/R, not to mention the comments, but when the editors started using "Rice-a-Roni" tag-lines for titles in my articles, I started to think that I was going to need a change of scenery.

It's been tough in a sense that this blog has gone through so many stages. It first started out to be "Simmons-esque" (blogging from the sports fans perspective) and then it more veered toward a "sabermetrics" lense (thanks to Moneyball and a slew of sabermetrics baseball blogs) and then it started to become a combo of both. Then worked happened, I found myself in South Dakota, I joined and left a Catholic religious order, and before I knew it, four months had passed and I had written a single post. With all the new Giants blogs out there (especially after the Giants won the World Series), I felt it was a little late and the Giants blogging thing just passed me by.

I started slews of new blogs. I started basketball ones, APBRmetrics ones, college basketball ones, even two fantasy sports blogs. All of them failed for two reasons: at the core, I like writing about baseball and sabermetrics. While I have extreme interests in the worlds of Henry Abbot, John Hollinger and Ken Pomeroy, I enjoy reading Rob Neyer, Chris Quick and Dave Cameron a lot more. Baseball and sabermetrics reading and writing just feels natural to me, and for some reason, I could never really embrace basketball stats as fully as I could baseball ones, and thus, I feel it would be unfair to those who do to try and start a blog. I still have a genuine interest in basketball and APBRmetrics. It's just that I don't think I'm ready to create and maintain a blog about it just yet.

And so, I wanted to get back in the Giants blogging scene. But it wouldn't have been right to just post again with R51. R51 represented a certain era, an era that was pre-World Series. I couldn't just go back. I needed to start over, with the same ambitions and style I had with R51, but concentrating on something specific about the Giants.

After some contemplation over the subject, I settled on Minor League baseball.

To be frank, I really love minor league baseball. Bull Durham is my favorite baseball movie (Hoop Dreams is my favorite sports movie), I grew up and lived in towns where Minor League baseball teams existed (Spokane, Portland, Sacramento and San Jose), and I love analyzing prospects. I really do. Something about prospects intrigues me, as I'm sure it intrigues most baseball fans. There's something about analyzing a young player and seeing how he does at one level and how that will transition to the next level, be it Double-A, Triple-A or the Majors. Why does Pablo Sandoval succeed at the Big League level, but Todd Linden didn't? What are certain characteristics good minor league players have that bode well for future success?

So, I'm concentrating on Minor League ball now at http://optionedtofresno.blogspot.com/. I'm not an expert at it yet, but I'm working on it. I'm reading all I can, and I'm doing more and more research to make my posts as comprehensive as the possibly can be. Hopefully, it'll get to where Remember 51 got and perhaps beyond. At this point though, it's just a project, a project that I will take time and effort to develop.

Sounds kind of like a GM running a minor league system, huh?

Why Buster Posey Winning the Rookie of the Year Feels So Right...

2010-11-15T18:08:00.000-08:00

I hate to compare players or situations from different sports. I think you're really overreaching mainly because different sports have different aspects and qualities. It basically becomes comparing apples to oranges when you compare a Giants team with a Warriors team. Baseball isn't played with the same emotion or physicality of basketball. So why compare the two, right?

Well, in some ways, before they announced the Rookie of the Year winners today, I couldn't help but think of last year's NBA Rookie of the Year race when Tyreke Evans of the Kings beat out Stephen Curry of the Warriors. Evans had the neat stats (20-5-5), but Curry in my mind had the more impact. First off, when you watched them play, there was no contest. Curry was out in the transition making plays. Evans on the other hand was looking to score anyway possible and that was about it.

But the real clincher in my mind was there situations. Curry had a team of cast-offs (seriously, Anthony Tolliver and Reggie Williams?), selfish players (Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson) and a star player who basically didn't want to play with him because he felt threatened that he'd steal the spotlight (Monta Ellis). As for Evans, he had a promising team with promising young talent that was pretty much built for him after they shipped Kevin Martin (a good player mind you) out of town. And yet, Curry's team finished well, while Evans' teams, for lack of a better word, did not.

So what got Evans his Rookie of the Year award? His start and his stats. Curry didn't have the start Evans had and he never caught up.

I thought it was going to be the same thing with Jason Heyward and Buster Posey.

After Heyward's home run in his first at-bat against the Cubs, I just thought "That's it, no one else is coming close to this award." That wasn't to say Heyward wasn't deserving. Heyward posted a .376 wOBA, helped by 18 homers, 83 runs scored and 11 stolen bases. Add that with solid defense (4.8 UZR) and a whole year of play, and you just felt that it was Heyward's award to lose.

But deep down, as a Giant fan, you just felt Posey had more impact.

Posey had to catch one of the best staffs in baseball, and not only did he handle them, but he made them better. He became the main offensive hitter in a team that was punch-less for offense in the beginning of the year and all of last year. He became "The Man" and made everyone forget about Bengie Molina, even though Molina was certainly an above-average Major League catcher for the Giants the past three-plus seasons.

You just can't equate that all into stats, same with how you couldn't measure Curry's impact into stats. Posey changed the team dynamic. He helped bring them up from pretenders to contenders. Heyward helped make them contenders the whole year, but he wasn't the centerpiece. He didn't have the pressure like Posey. It's no fault of his own. When you play outfield, you just don't have as much impact on a team like a catcher. You're not dealing with pitchers who are notoriously known as headcases. It's just the reality of baseball. To do what Posey did was nothing short of incredible, especially considering he was only 23 years old.

I'm glad the voters thought right here. I figured they'd do what the basketball writers did for Rookie of the Year last year and simply say "Well, he's got the numbers! So we gotta give it to him!"

Chalk this one up for the Bay Area. Maybe Posey will be better than Heyward and maybe he won't in terms of long term. But for now, Posey earned it with what he did on the field and in terms of wins, and that is why he deserved this just a little bit more than Heyward.

Reactions to the Giants' 2010 FSR (Fans Scouting Reports)

2010-11-13T08:00:00.000-08:00

One of the most interesting things I have stumbled upon in recent days is FSR (On the Web site Tangotier.net). For those who don't know, it is basically "Fans Scouting Reports." Basically, fans log on, submit their evaluations of certain players on a 1-100 scale. As predicted, 50 is the average. The FSR allows fans to evaluate instincts, fielding range, hands and throwing measurements on a 1-100 scale. I really love this evaluation system for two reasons:

A.) It's another way to help measure defense, and it does it in a good way (allowing people to judge players on what they see). After all, a lot of people's big problems with UZR is that they don't think it equally justifies what they see on the field. While this isn't fail safe, FSR does give a nice complement to UZR.

B.) It's relatively simple. 1-100 ratings in seven categories. Doesn't need much explanation when you see it.

Here are my reactions to some of the evaluations. (Remember 50 is average.)

The Expected (No surprises here, good or bad):

Andres Torres (76), Nate Schierholtz (77), Buster Posey (72), Freddy Sanchez (70), Travis Ishikawa (68), Juan Uribe (57), Eugenio Velez (28), Jose Guillen (27), Pat Burrell (36).

Not any surprises here. Schierholtz and Torres are plus-plus outfielders, Posey was a huge upgrade defensively over Bengie Molina (who was last in team FSR with a 26 rating), and Ishikawa is one of the better defensive first basemen in the game. Also, though Buster Olney would disagree, Uribe is above average defensively, and thankfully the fans evaluate him properly here.

In terms of the bad ones, also no surprises with Velez, Guillen and Burrell. Velez is an adventure in the outfield or infield (though I was a little surprised by his ZERO hands rating) and Guillen showed he was ill-equipped to cover right field at AT&T Park. As for Burrell, he wasn't the worst, but his 36 rating (a little below-average) is what I would rank him as well. I think Torres definitely made Burrell a lot more tolerable in left field (e.g. he was covering the ball Burrell couldn't get to).

The Good Surprises

Matt Downs (52), Cody Ross (53), Aubrey Huff (47).

Downs is no longer a member of the Giants, but he had a seven point improvement in the fans' mind from a year ago, so it was nice to see a guy get some love from the fans. As for Ross, I think it was mostly a surprise because A.) he was pretty solid offensively and B.) And he's above average defensively according to defensive metric and FSR. Thus, it makes you wonder why the Marlins were so ready to jettison him. (Then again, when you have Mike Stanton, I guess you gotta do something...but you're telling me Ross had no trade value at all?)

Now, most pundits would say Huff's below average FSR isn't good. But I found it considering this: he was a career DH prior to this season. Yes, he's not going to win a Gold Glove anytime soon, but he didn't kill the Giants defensively as much as I thought he would and his pop in the bat was more than enough to help him overcome the more stellar defender Ishikawa.

Brian Sabean definitely lucked out with Huff, not just offensively, but defensively as well in 2010.

The Bad Surprises

Pablo Sandoval (46), Aaron Rowand (46), Mark Derosa (48).

Sandoval's FSR is a little disheartening because it clashes with his UZR numbers from 2010. In 2009, Sandoval had a negative-3.6 UZR in 2009 and improved to a 1.2 UZR this season. However, FSR goes vice versa. In 2009, he had a 55 rating (above average). In 2010, his rating was 46 (below average). Arm accuracy and instincts are the two categories where he took huge hits. He fell 15 points in each category from the previous year (from 54 to 39 in AA and 65 to 50 in instincts). Hence, it's not just an athleticism thing that is hurting Sandoval defensively at third (since his weight seems to be the main beef with his defense).

Rowand didn't really have much of a tumble (he went from 48 to 46 from 2009 to 2010) but Rowand has already has had an MO as a solid defender. The same goes with Derosa (though I wonder how much his injury hindered him this year). However, as FSR points out, they are both seen by the fans as slightly below average. That's not a good sign for two guys who made just a shade under 20 millions dollars on the Giants payroll last season.

Conclusion

I'm late to the game in this, but FSR is definitely a good tool. I really didn't have any gross disagreements on some players with FSR (not quite the case with UZR on certain players). That being said, much like UZR, FSR shouldn't be viewed solely, but it gives us a more concrete way to look at players defensively in addition to usual sabermetric analysis. Definitely expect to see FSR used more often (along with UZR) on Remember '51.

Is Jesus Guzman the Second-Coming of John Bowker?

2010-11-12T15:44:00.000-08:00

If anything, there was probably one guy who didn't like the Giants winning the World Series this year. I'm not saying he wasn't happy for the guys or the organization, but rather, he was probably disappointed because their win probably put the lid in terms of him playing next year with the Giants.

That person was Jesus Guzman.

Could Guzman be a good player? I don't know. His minor league numbers (.885 and .886 OPS; 16 home runs and 18 home runs in 2009 and 2010 in Fresno) aren't extremely impressive, but they're solid and he did show improvement from 2009 to 2010 in the Pacific Coast League (his K/9 rate dropped from 18.3 to 15.1 percent and his BB/K ratio improved from 0.45 to 0.56). Of course, Guzman has no Major League numbers to fall back on (.250 average, .500 OPS in 20 plate appearances) and his defense isn't exactly heralded (he played five different positions last year, and the best one for him was DH). Despite this, Guzman still remains an interesting player who is still young enough (he's 26 years old) to have some kind of career at the big league level.

But then again, we said the same thing about John Bowker and Todd Linden.

The comparison between Bowker and Guzman is very interesting. Granted, Guzman broke into professional ball earlier than Bowker (Bowker played college ball at Long Beach State; while Guzman was playing ball in Venezuela at 17 years old), but they are pretty similar career-wise in terms of minor league numbers.

Both had big seasons in Double-A ball (Bowker posted an .886 OPS in Connecticut in 2007; Guzman had a .948 OPS in 2008 for Midland, the A's Double-A affiliate). Both had down initial campaigns in Triple-A (Bowker struggled in his brief time in Fresno in 2008, though that was probably affected by the fact that he played most of the year in the Big Leagues; Guzman struggled down the stretch in 2008 with Sacramento, posting only a .649 OPS in 65 plate appearances). And both rebounded to have solid seasons in Triple-A the following year (Bowker had a ridiculous 1.047 OPS, while Guzman posted a very commendable .885 OPS).

So is Guzman on that Bowker track? (e.g. a prolonged stint in the minors without ever having a solid chance to prove himself at the Major League level?) Most likely. When your team wins the World Series, you don't rebuild and take a waiver on guys like Guzman. You re-load with free agents or stick with the guys who got you there (and the latter is a very strong possibility if I know Brian Sabean).

That being said, I think Guzman has a bit more upside than Bowker simply because he has had a better history in terms of plate patience. Guzman has only posted a BB/K ratio under 0.45 once in his career (his 2008 in Sacramento). As for Bowker, sans his ridiculous 1.16 BB/K ratio in 2009, plate patience was always an issue for him (he never had a BB/K ratio above 0.40 at any level prior to 2009). Yes, Bowker showed more power in the minors (only 11 less home runs than Guzman in almost 1000 fewer at-bats), but I'll take a guy with better plate discipline any day. Don't get me wrong. I liked Bowker. I rooted for him to succeed with the Giants hard. But, unlike Bowker, I think a decent Major League career isn't a stretch for Guzman.

It just won't be with the Giants.

Did Andres Torres Deserve a Gold Glove?

2010-11-10T18:33:00.000-08:00

Shane Victorino. Michael Bourne. Carlos Gonzalez.

Your NL Gold Glove outfielders for the 2010 season.

Now, there's nothing wrong with those choices. If the writers gave one to last year's winner (Matt Kemp), I would have had serious problems with the award (though the "legitimacy" of the award already is on shaky ground after Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove for AL shortstop and Orlando Hudson winning it last year).

But, as a Giants fan, it would have been nice to see a journeyman like Torres take away some hardware, especially when you look at his defensive numbers according to UZR (just freaking off the charts).

As Rob Neyer concluded, what probably killed Torres from earning a Gold Glove was him playing multiple positions throughout the year. Unlike Neyer, I think this is an asinine argument. Right field in San Francisco is one of the toughest places to play defensively. You have to give up considerable room on the foul line to protect Triple's Alley. There's a reason why Randy Winn started in right for so long though he didn't have a "typical" right fielder's arm: the guy could cover the necessary ground in right at AT&T. (Of course, so did Nate Schierholtz, but that is an argument for another day...this is 2010! The Giants are champs!)

So, if anything, that should have helped his chances, right? You had Torres able to not only play center, but play right in a park where the fielder needs to be athletic and apt enough to play center. You don't believe me? Ask Garrett Jones and Vlad Guerrero about playing right in AT&T. They'll tell you it ain't easy.

What do I believe killed Torres' chances this year?

He's not a name. And it's sad that baseball writers seem hesitant to think outside the box when it comes to this award. If the Academy Awards were ran like the Gold Glove awards, Tom Hanks would have beaten Robert Benigni that one year for best actor in 1997. Was Tom Hanks great in "Saving Private Ryan"? Yeah, he was. But Benigni was special, and the Academy actually had the guts to say "You know what, it isn't familiar, but let's do it because the under the radar guys need to be recognized."

The baseball writers had a chance to have a "Life is Beautiful" moment this year with Torres. Instead, like the Academy went safe with picking Sean Penn over Mickey Rourke for best actor, they did the same with the NL Gold Gloves. Completely safe, logical, but rather uninspiring choices. Look...I'm glad for Bourne, CarGo and Victorino. They're all likable players and they are certainly deserving. But, you can't question how much of an impact Torres had in terms of saving runs in the outfield (whether you are in the sabermetric or "I judge baseball with my eyes" camp). You can't question that Torres probably made Pat Burrell look better than he was, because he was chasing the balls Burrell probably should have gotten to. You think the baseball writers would take into consideration ballparks, especially considering how Coors and Citizens Bank are crackerboxes in comparison to AT&T.

But sigh...they didn't. Oh well, Andres. You're the Gold Glover in Giants' fans hearts, and the World Series trophy proves it.

I can't wait for the NL Rookie of the Year award to be presented.

Comparing the Giants and Phillies Defensively

2010-10-13T18:26:00.000-07:00

I just can't get over what Buster Olney said on Bill Simmons' MLB Playoff Podcast, which I listened to yesterday. Basically, I came away with four things:

1.) The Tampa Bay Rays Have the Best GM in baseball (probably true).
2.) The Red Sox are hurting in terms of the money they owe to contracts next year (true, but unnecessary considering the Red Sox aren't in the playoffs).
3.) The Mariners made a mistake by taking Justin Smoak from the Rangers instead of Jesus Montero in the Cliff Lee trade (very, very true when you consider Montero's a catcher).
4.) The Giants have no chance against the Phillies because of their offense (true) and defense.

(You can find the BS Report Podcast between Simmons and Olney here.)

The defense part kills me. Olney remarked to Simmons that the Giants had "one of the worst defenses in baseball." For a baseball writer, and one who likes to follow modern trends (e.g. some sabermetrics), I can't believe Olney would put his foot in his mouth like this.

So, to prove my point over Olney's, let's look and compare the Giants position by position (on UZR and UZR/150 basis) to the Phillies who apparently are "better" defensively than the Giants.

Left Field: Pat Burrell vs. Raul Ibanez.
2010 OF UZR and UZR/150 for Burrell: 4.9 and 10.7.
2010 OF UZR and UZR/150 for Ibanez: minus-6.9 and minus-8.4.

The positive UZR and UZR/150 information is probably an aberration. Burrell is a career neagtive-39.7 outfielder defensively. This positive UZR and UZR/150 is the first instance in his career since 2004. That being said, Ibanez has been atrocious in the field this year and has been so in the past (career negative-20.4 UZR). At the very least, it's a wash, but I would give the benefit of the doubt to Burrell mainly because he has been better this year, while Ibanez has taken a dive after posting positive UZR numbers a season ago.

Edge: Giants.

Center Field: Andres Torres vs. Shane Victorino.
2010 OF UZR and UZR/150 for Torres: 21.2 and 24.8.
2010 OF UZR and UZR/150 for Victorino: 2.6 and 3.3.

Victorino has traditionally been a solid outfielder (career 30.5 UZR). But what Torres has done has been unbelievable. And it's not just a fluke either. Torres still posted very good UZR numbers a year ago (8.2) despite playing a sparing amount of games (his UZR/150 translated to 33). Torres can save runs and he can save runs in bunches, particularly helpful considering the Giants pitchers are primarily strikeout-flyball pitchers. You don't want to discredit Victorino and what he has done in his career, but the past two years, he can't hold a candle to what Torres has done defensively.

Edge: Giants

Right Field: Cody Ross vs. Jayson Werth.
2010 OF UZR and UZR/150 for Ross: 2.9 and 3.4.
2010 OF UZR and UZR/150 for Werth: negative-6.9 and negative-7.2.

This may be the toughest position to judge for both teams. Ross isn't incredible defensively, but at the very least he's average to above-average (career 3.5 UZR in OF). Werth has actually been great over his career (career 43.8 UZR in the OF), but has struggled this season. If you judge Werth against Jose Guillen (negative-23.1 UZR for his career in the OF), then the Phillies have this won outright. But then you consider Nate Schierholtz (6.4 UZR this year in RF), and suddenly the Giants have more depth (Ben Francisco, their backup right fielder posted negative UZR numbers). I'm just going to call this one a draw, mainly because I don't think Werth is as bad as his stats this year indicate, and Ross, while solid, is nothing special (though he certainly is a heck of a lot better defensively than Guillen).

Edge: Push.

Third Base: Pablo Sandoval vs. Placido Polanco.
2010 3B UZR and UZR/150 for Sandoval: 1.2 and 1.5.
2010 3B UZR and UZR/150 for Polanco: 10 and 11.3.

No doubt the Phillies have the edge here. Polanco has been stellar this year, and has been over his career (21.8 career UZR at third). Sandoval performed much better this year (he had a negative-3.6 UZR last year), but he has regressed in the second half, and he still has problems with his throwing accuracy at times. Even if Mike Fontenot starts at third, the Phillies still have the advantage with Polanco. Fontenot's career UZR is negative-4.2 at third base.

Edge: Phillies.

Shortstop: Juan Uribe vs. Jimmy Rollins.
2010 SS UZR and UZR/150 for Uribe: 2.1 and 3.3.
2010 SS UZR and UZR/150 for Rollins: 6.9 and 12.3.

This one is another matchup that clearly favors the Phillies...though not as much as people would like to think. Olney was pretty clear in calling out Uribe as a poor defensive shortstop. Now is he a gold glove candidate? Probably not, but he is better than his pudgy frame would suggest (career 18.5 UZR). Rollins of course is a better athlete and hence, a better defensive player (career 44.5 UZR), and the Phillies have the advantage in this department because Rollins is so great. They don't have the advantage though because Uribe is so poor, like Olney would like to think.

Edge: Phillies.

Second base: Freddy Sanchez vs. Chase Utley.
2010 2B UZR and UZR/150 for Sanchez: 5.9 and 9.3.
2010 2B UZR and UZR/150 for Utley: 10.3 and 12.9.

The Phillies take it again here, but it's closer than one would like to believe, especially if you look at UZR/150. I think when you take into consideration that Sanchez has been hurt most of the year, Sanchez's UZR numbers look a whole lot better (hence, the drop in difference in UZR/150 between him and Utley). Utley is one of the top second basemen in the game both offensively and defensively, so on just position alone, Utley is the clear favorite. But Sanchez is no slouch, and Fontenot has proven to be a more than adequate backup at second as well (8.6 career UZR at 2B).

Edge: Phillies.

First base: Aubrey Huff vs. Ryan Howard.
2010 1B UZR and UZR/150 for Huff: 5.4 and 9.7.
2010 1B UZR and UZR/150 for Howard: negative-12.8 and negative-11.6.

Olney also said in the podcast that Huff "probably should be a DH." Well, Buster, you haven't been watching the Giants season that closely if you think that. First all, Huff is significantly better than Howard at first. Second, in addition to better UZR numbers than Howard, Huff has also played three positions this year (left field and right field) and held his own (he only posted negative numbers in right field, but his UZR/150 was only negative-7.2, which isn't bad considering how hard it is to play right in AT&T Park). Huff not only showed that he can field adequately at first, but he showed that he can be mixed in the field and not be a complete disaster.

Edge: Giants.

Catcher: Buster Posey vs. Carlos Ruiz.
2010 stats for Posey: six errors, one passed ball, 37.1 CS percentage.
2010 stats for Ruiz: six errors, four passed balls, 28.6 CS percentage.

No question Posey is a better athlete than Ruiz. However, Posey showed great defense behind the plate this year for the Giants. His 37.1 CS percentage was fourth in the National League this year, not bad considering it is his first year. Furthermore, he was tied with Ruiz in terms of errors committed (4th best in the NL). Sure, Ruiz isn't much worse, but I'm giving this one to Posey, mainly because he's done all this as a rookie, and he has the better CS percentage.

Edge: Giants.

Team UZR in 2010:
Giants: 56.4 (2nd in MLB).
Phillies: negative-5.8 (17th in MLB).

Edge: Giants.

Verdict:
The Giants have the better outfield and catcher. The Phillies have the better infield (sans first base). On terms of count alone in the breakdown, the Giants beat the Phillies 4-3-1 (with the one draw being right field). Are the Giants much better than the Phillies defensively, probably, but not by much. That being said, I think this effectively refutes Olney's point on Simmons' podcast that the Giants are a lousy defensive team. They're not, and the numbers back it up.

The 2010 San Francisco Giants: NL West Champions

2010-10-03T18:44:00.000-07:00

Those eight words haunt me. They give me shivers. In June, if you would have told me the Giants would be NL West Champs, I would have laughed. Not because I didn't believe, but because it just didn't seem possible. Not with Aaron Rowand patrolling center field. Not with Bengie Molina playing catcher. Not with Freddy Sanchez on the disabled list and Edgar Renteria rotating between shortstop and the disabled list.

But it happened...and what can I say. I couldn't be more shocked and happy as a Giants fan.

92-70. Four wins better than last year. You wonder what made this team different. Sure you could look at stuff like wRC and wRAA and say "The offense was better" and you certainly would be right. The offense was better this year, a whole lot better (over 10 points better in terms of wOBA). The Giants weren't a playoff team according to the numbers last year, and it made sense why the Rockies bounced them. You could argue that they aren't this year, but there would be an argument. Giants fans didn't have that luxury a season ago.

It was a funny regular season. The guy we expected to be money in the bank offensively (Pablo Sandoval) was far from it. The local guy we all had hope for (John Bowker) came manifested in another form (Burrell). The vets whom Bochy seemingly couldn't bench last year (Rowand and Renteria) were finally put on the bench when it mattered the most. And the guy we thought we wanted (Nick Johnson) tanked, while the guy we thought was a mistake (Aubrey Huff) proved to be everything we did want and more.

2009 was a great year. No doubt. But 2010 was special and special in a way that you just can't explain. How could you explain Sabean holding his guns at the trade deadline when everyone was telling him to trade Jonathan Sanchez for whatever bat he could? (Cough...Cody Ross...cough). How could you explain three washed up relievers (Santiago Casilla, Ramon Ramirez and Javier Lopez) suddenly become late-inning studs? How could you explain a rookie catcher (Buster Posey) not only handle one of the league's best staffs, but help make them better?

No doubt about it. The Giants took risks in 2010. Much more risks than 2009. And you know what? It paid off. I didn't think they would. I'm a pessimist by nature when it comes to Giants baseball. Game 6 haunts me. Playing in Miami in October haunts me. Livan Hernandez haunts me. Steve Finley haunts me. And after the Giants dropped two in a row to start off this series, I was thinking "Great, these ghosts simply won't go away."

Yet the Giants believed, and helped pessimistic and agonizing fans like me believe. There hasn't been this kind of attitude about a Giants team in well...a long time. I don't even think 2002 had this kind of fan fervor. I went to a Giants-Dodgers game in September at Dodgers Stadium and the Giants fans were rowdier than the Dodgers fans. They owned the place and guess what? They won.

The Giants are onto something special, a special that is far and beyond what happened in 2009 (and you know what? That was pretty darn special).

We've seen teams play well one year and tank the other (ask Seattle fans about that). And the Giants had all the ingredients for a similar kind of collapse. And not only did they not, but they were better. Sabean, for all his faults, did the right things. Bochy, for all of his faults, stayed on the right track (though he could have played Jose Guillen a lot less). Brian Wilson, for every naysayer out there, slammed the door again and again. Tim Lincecum, enduring a down year, came up big when the Giants needed him the most in September. Juan Uribe proved that just because you look bad statistically, it doesn't mean you can't have impact (the 2005 Chicago White Sox can testify to this).

I could go on and on. The Giants are in the playoffs. And I still am in utter shock/disbelief/elation. I haven't wrote a post on this blog for almost three months. Work caught up with me, but the Giants started winning when I stopped posting and I didn't want to jinx them. That's how irrational I've become. For every post I write about how Andres Torres can't be judged on his past MLB numbers, I do things like not posting because I fear I might blow the Giants playoffs chances.

And now it's over. The Giants did it and I feel, as a fan, I can speak up again, now knowing that the tension is behind me...though only momentarily. After all, there is still the playoffs. I don't want this feeling to end.

Before the season in 2008, the Giants were actually being talked about as a candidate to break the '62 Mets record for most losses in a year. Eugenio Velez was heralded as one of their "Top" prospects. Rowand was expected to be their team leader and run producer after they signed him to a $60 million contract.

And look where they are now. 92-70, NL West Champs and in the playoffs for the first time in 2003.

Thank you God.

I can feel Bobby Thomson watching out over us as we speak.

The Pros and Cons of the Jose Guillen Trade

2010-08-13T14:21:00.000-07:00

Well, it's official. Jose Guillen is a Giant (I got the e-mail from the Giants' Web site, and usually, that seals the deal in terms of "officialness").

I can't explain my feelings in one or two tweets. This has been a long time coming, ever since June when the Royals were rumored to be in talks with the Giants in terms of trading Guillen.

So here are the pros and cons of the trade that went down today on a weird day for Bay Area Sports fans. (The Glen Coffee retirement was puzzling, but it's not a huge loss; as my friend Travis said on FB chat today "Coffee f******g sucked...I don't give a s*** about that...He was soft." I tend to agree with him for the most part.)

Pros of Acquiring Guillen

1.) People say Guillen doesn't provide much more offense than Aaron Rowand they're probably right. Let's look at some advanced numbers on the two players:

Guillen: .325 wOBA, 100 wRC+, 0.32 BB/K ratio, .174 ISO, 0.7 WAR.
Rowand: .307 wOBA, 89 wRC+, 0.24 BB/K ratio, .154 ISO, 0.9 WAR.

Now, I know fans will say "His WAR is Higher!" in defense of Rowand, but remember, Rowand is playing for the Giants (a team that is winning) and Guillen played for the Royals (a team that isn't). As you can see though, Guillen is a better option than Rowand. Is he much better? No. Is he a better clubhouse guy? Probably not. However, the Giants need offense, and Guillen provides a better upgrade than what they currently have on the bench, which is Rowand and Nate Schierholtz (who, from what I heard, could be the "PTBNL").

2.) The Giants starting pitching is shakier than it was at this point last year, especially Tim Lincecum. Guillen makes the team more offensively average, which they may need after watching yesterday's game against the Cubs (e.g. the bullpen blew a 7-3 lead). The days of them winning 1-0 games is a lot less likely than a year ago.

Speaking of Timmy, Lincecum doesn't look like 2008 or 2009 Tim Lincecum but more like...well...2010 Tim Lincecum. (He has only two full seasons prior to 2010 for chrissakes!) His FIP (3.31) is almost a full point higher than last year (2.31) and his K/BB ratio (2.76) is over a full point lower than last year (3.84). Granted, this isn't necessarily an alarming thing. Lincecum was so good his first two years that anything less would look bad in comparison.

3.) Guillen shouldn't cost any prospects of note. Furthermore, he'll be a free agent after this year, so if he doesn't work out, then the Giants will be off the hook after the season ends.

Cons of Acquiring Guillen

1.) Guillen's lackluster defensive skills don't help the Giants and hence, the Giants defense is probably the biggest concern of this trade. While Guillen has been pretty decent for the Royals this season in right field (2.6 UZR), Guillen for the most part, has been a sub-par defender in his career (minus-22.4 career UZR). An outfield with Burrell, Andres Torres and Guillen is shaky, mainly because you're putting two iron gloves out there (Burrell and Guillen) and that puts more pressure on Torres and the pitching staff. Furthermore, right field isn't easy to play in San Francisco. If you don't believe me, ask the Pirates' Garrett Jones, who got owned by the wall on Aubrey Huff's early-season "Inside the Park" home run.

The Giants have been successful this year because they have had one of the top defenses according to UZR. Guillen isn't going to bolster that UZR.

2.) He has power (career .171 ISO) but that's about it. Guillen doesn't draw walks (career 0.29 BB/K ratio) and he doesn't get on-base well either (career .322 OBP). In order to be worthwhile, Guillen is going to have hit dingers and fast. Granted, Burrell did that when he came over to Tampa, but can the Giants get lucky on three cast-offs in a row? (With Huff being the first.) That seems like a lot to ask and hope for.

3.) Guillen doesn't exactly have the most sterling clubhouse reputation. This year he openly complained about being benched and this year wasn't the first time something like that happened. He was suspended for the playoffs when he was with the Angels, and he was volatile his second year in Washington. Granted, Bruce Bochy is known for managing clubhouse knuckleheads well, but still...why risk it?

Granted, people will say that "chemistry" in baseball doesn't matter and to a point I would agree (just because baseball is such an "individual" sport). However, while good chemistry, in my opinion, won't bolster a team automatically, bad chemistry can certainly destroy a good team fast. If you don't believe me, look at what happened with the Giants when they acquired A.J. Pierzynski and Shea Hillenbrand.

Final Conclusion?

It's another low risk, potential high reward move by the Giants. They get a player with pop and they got him for "Fred Lewis to Toronto-esque" cheap. If Guillen doesn't work, the Giants can cut ties with him and there won't be much of a loss.

That being said, you have to like the way the Giants are playing. They're looking good and they're playing with confidence. So, you just have to ask, "Why mess with it if it isn't broken?"

Is it the worst deal of the year? No (Mark Derosa's

We have to wait and see, but I'm not optimistic. (Then again, I wasn't optimistic about Burrell either; I don't mind be wrong again if it results in the Giants winning.)

Is Brian Sabean Finally Wising Up as Giants General Manager?

2010-08-10T10:36:00.000-07:00

I hate to say it. I am as big a Sabean basher as the next McCoven commenter on McCovey Chronicles. For years, I felt he got too much credit as GM when the Giants were riding high and competing for the NL West Division title every year. I came to these feelings because of two things: A.) He had Barry Bonds, the best hitter alive, and B.) the NL West wasn't exactly flush with talented "management" (e.g. Sabes was the best of a mediocre bunch of GMs in the NL West at the time).

But, as I write this post, the Giants are 64-49, which is three wins better than where they were at last year after 113 games. They are one game back of the Padres in the NL West, which I never would have thought back in June when they looked like a dead lock for third or fourth in the division. They are one game up in the Wild Card race, and I like their chances considering Dusty Baker is managing the Reds (e.g. They are going to self-destruct at some point).

And, who deserves some credit?

Sabes. F'ing Sabes.

Those words don't come easy. However, just look at what he's done this year.

He signed an aging, "left for dead" ("I Spit on Your Grave"-style) Aubrey Huff to a one year deal worth three million dollars. Huff, a career DH prior to this season, was expected to play first base and provide the Giants with pop, though his projections were rather disheartening (Bill James projected a .338 wOBA and a 4.5 wRAA). What has Huff done? He has mashed (20 home runs), surpassing expectations offensively (his wOBA is .403 and his wRAA is 30) and defensively (he has played three positions and sports a cumulative 2.1 UZR). Huff has been the Giants MVP, and his WAR (4.2, which converts to about $16.9 million according to Fangraphs) proves it. And we all thought Nick Johnson (.330 wOBA; 0.1 WAR) was a better option in the off-season.
He passed on Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, more expensive free agent choices this off-season. Granted, some of it was out of his hands (Bay said straight up he didn't want to play in SF and Holliday was demanding too large a payday because his agent is Scott Boras), but Sabes made the right move by passing on the two, expensive sluggers. While Holliday looks to be worth his salt (4.4 WAR; .388 wOBA), Bay has been a tremendous disappointment (.144 ISO; .337 wOBA; 1.3 WAR).
He admitted he was wrong (not publicly, but in action), cut ties with Bengie Molina and by July 1st, Buster Posey was the everyday catcher, which every Giants fan wanted in the beginning of the year except the Molina family. And guess what? The move paid off. The Giants went 20-8 in July, the first time they won 20 games in July since 2000 and Posey has been a spark in the lineup (.387 wOBA; 2.4 WAR).
He signed Pat Burrell, though everyone thought (including myself) thought it was a dumb idea, that Burrell was done, and that he was just going to cause a logjam in the Giants lineup. I was totally wrong. Bruce Bochy finally decided that Aaron Rowand was benchable, Mark Derosa got surgery and sat out the rest of the year (a blessing in disguise; Derosa would have made the lineup situation worse), and Burrell came in rejuvenated and with a chip on his shoulder to prove the Tampa stint was a fluke. Burrell has posted a .377 wOBA as a Giant, has been a model teammate and has provided one of the best moments Giants fans have had against the Dodgers in quite a while.
And lastly, he stayed pat at the Trade Deadline, and didn't trade away any top prospects, even though everyone clamored that the Giants needed a bat. My argument for those pining for Jose Bautista or someone similar was this: Where would he play? I think Sabes realized that and decided to roll the dice on this offense, figuring that Pablo would turn it around at some point, which would cover the offense should Burrell and Posey cool (which sort of has happened). Second, the Giants have some special prospects, and I think Jonathan Sanchez is a special (not to mention affordable and under team control for two more years) pitcher, and to lose them for short-term gain would've been a travesty. If you don't believe me, look at how the Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez trades have turned out on the Giants end.

Granted, Sabes has made some blunders. Signing Molina was a bad decision. Signing Sanchez, despite his glowing recommendation from Mychael Urban (Urban said that Sanchez was a guaranteed for a .300 average and 10 home runs prior to the season and that we should "Book it." Not quite Urban. Not quite) was a bad decision (his .286 wOBA and 0.3 WAR echo that). Signing Derosa was a bad decision. Not doing enough medical research on Sanchez and Derosa in the off-season was a bad decision.

That being said, Sabes has improved on those mistakes (for the most part). He didn't stay hard-headed about improving the blunders he made earlier this year. In fact, we've seen Sabestradeable player" factory. He understands that they can help you win games NOW. I think Posey has showed him that, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some guys in the minors this year get shots at starting positions next year. A couple of years ago (last year even), we couldn't say that of Sabes. It would almost be guaranteed that a veteran would be starting on Opening Day, even if that veteran is a washed up Steve Finley.

Maybe this is all a flash in the pan. Maybe Sabes is just letting it ride because that's what he does: let things ride when they are working. Maybe he hasn't changed philosophies, but just ran out of options and got incredibly lucky with Huff, Posey and Andres Torres. Maybe this off-season, he'll fall into his same, dumb idiosyncrasies and re-sign Edgar Renteria to a one-year contract because he's been a "Great Giant" this season.

I don't know. I can't see the future. But in terms of the present, Sabes has finally earned my approval as the Giants general manager so far this season.

Now if you excuse me, I'm going to use the rest room and throw up now.

So...Are You Alive?

2010-08-10T09:48:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the long delay. I know. If you run a Giants blog, you shouldn't be having long "Freddy Sanchez Hitting a Home Run"-esque droughts in July and August, the heart of the season. But there have been a variety of factors I can't control (e.g. work, no internet access, etc.) that have prevented me from posting. That being said, new REGULAR posts will be coming back starting today. With so many Giants blogs out there, I'm sure you haven't missed out, but I just wanted to give a heads up.

Let's make it two in a row against the Cubbies. Who would've thought three years ago they would be this bad?

July Bullets: Posey and Bumgarner, Marichal's Debut, Ishikawa, and the Second Half

2010-07-20T08:26:00.000-07:00

Okay, I know I haven't posted in a while. Two things have happened:

1.) I'm working right now and my schedule severely limits my free time.
2.) I don't really have acess to the internet either.

So, add those two things together and this is what you get. A blog with a post every couple of weeks, if that. I will be back on July 30th, so expect some more regular posts then, but for the time being, I'm just going to give you these bullets for now.

Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner Tearing It Up

Remember when Giants fans and management didn't want to call up these two for fear of exposing them too early in their development? Remember when we felt Bengie Molina and Todd Wellemeyer were adequate enough?

Well, don't we as Giants fans feel a little foolish.

Posey is making Giants fans forget all about Bengie. He has been on a tear lately, as evidenced by his team-leading (of players with 30 or more plate appearances) .409 wOBA and eight home runs. Posey is also looking incredible behind the plate, posting a 44 percent caught stealing rate so far. (In comparison, Molina's caught stealing rate was 23 percent before being traded.)

As for Bumgarner, he is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA and is posting a K/BB ratio of 3.43. Yes, the K/9 rate isn't Timmy-impressive, but his BB rate is impressive at 1.87 and he is showing an impressive four pitch repertoire with a fasball averaging 90.5 MPH.

Of course, there are concerns. Bumgarner's contact rate is 85.2 percent, which is very high, and his BABIP is .268, so he is due to come back to earth, as his FIP (4.13) suggests. Posey's BABIP is also high (.356), but at the very least he is posting a good BB/K ratio (0.45) and he is making good contact (83.8 percent).

It's safe to say, Posey and Bumgarner are proving that the Giants have a bright future.

Anniversary of Juan Marichal's Debut Yesterday

Thanks to Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times, who gave me a link to a blog which remembered some impressive debuts from Luis Tiant to Bob Feller. The most impressive though? The "Dominican Dandy" Juan Marichal.

Here's blurb fom Jaffe's post:

On July 19, 1960, Juan Marichal made his MLB debut, pitching a complete game one-hitter with 12 Ks. His Game Score of 96 is the highest known one for a MLB debut.

If you haven't, check out The Hardball Times. It's one of the best Sabermertric blogs out there.

Travis Ishikawa es en Fuego

I have always been a big believer in Ishikawa. The guy has a great glove and some good power, and finally, it seems as if he is finally realizing his potential.

Ishikawa has been on fire (which is what I say in sloppy Spanish above), as evidenced by his .394 wOBA. What has been the key to Ishikawa's success? A decreased strikeout rate (from 27.3 last year to 18.2 this year) and better and more contact at the plate this year. Ishikawa's swinging strike percentage has gone down from 2009 (from 13.1 percent to 8.3 percent this year) and his contact percentage is up (from 71.8 percent last year to 83.2 percent this season). Also, he is making good contact, as evidenced by a ridiculous 36.7 percent line drive percentage.

Now, this may just be a "Eugenio Velez-style" hot streak. Ishikawa only has 81 plate appearances and his line drive perecentage and BABIP (.397) are bound to come back to earth. However, it's nice to not only see Ishikawa get some playing time after spending most of the first half as only a defensive replacement, but to see him succeed as well.

Giants Off to Hot Start in Second Half

The Giants are currently 4-1 out of the gate in the second half and should be 5-0, if not for a blown call by the home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi. They have won 10 of their last 12 games. Pablo Sandoval has been on a tear since the second half started and may be on his way to being Old Panda again. The Giants finally broke a bit of a hex, and beat the Dodgers in LA last night.

It's still early, but man...what a difference a couple of weeks make.

Which Snubbed Giants Have An All-Star Case to Make?

2010-07-04T23:57:00.000-07:00

First off, congratulations to Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson for making the NL All-Star roster. I know Lincecum hasn't been as dominant as in years past, but take this into consideration: despite his "off-year" Lincecum is still ranked fourth in the National League in FIP (ahead of Ubaldo Jimenez actually). So, despite him probably not being as big a "shoe-in" as the past two seasons, Lincecum was certainly deserving of the berth. As for Wilson, I've been harping that he's been one of the league's best closers, and his numbers go beyond saves. In terms of FIP, he's the fourth-best reliever in the National League. That is a far cry from 2008, his previous All-Star season, when his FIP was 3.93.

However, there are some notable exceptions on this Giants roster. Aubrey Huff, Matt Cain, Andres Torres, and Juan Uribe are all names that deserved some All-Star attention, but didn't get the invite today. Unfortunately, it seems like any of them getting in is a long shot at this point. None of the Giants players listed are in the running for the fan "vote-in" (Heath Bell, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Billy Wagner, and Ryan Zimmerman were the final five candidates chosen).

So, which Giants players have beefs, and which ones probably aren't All-Star worthy? Let's break down each player's "candidacy."

Aubrey Huff
.290 average, 15 home runs, 47 RBI, .391 wOBA, 17.4 wRAA, 2.6 WAR.

Huff probably is the most legitimate All-Star out of all the Giants players snubbed. He is ranked behind only Joey Votto and Albert Pujols in terms of wOBA for NL first baseman, and his 17.4 wRAA is tied for fourth out of NL first basemen as well. In addition to his offensive skills, Huff has shown tremendous defensive ability (4.2 UZR/150 at first base; 7.5 UZR/150 in the outfield) and flexibility (he has started at first base, left and right field). Thus, it's no surprise Huff's WAR is 2.6, which values to about $10.4 million dollars, according to Fangraphs.

So, why isn't Huff an All-Star? He's coming off an atrocious year, and he is playing for a Giants roster that has made more noise for their pitching and LACK of offense. It's really unfair. Huff is doing what Adrian Gonzalez did a year ago, but while Gonzalez has gotten the respect, Huff's incredible first half has been swept under the rug by the fans, players and of course, Charlie "I hate the Giants players" Manuel.

To illustrate my point that Huff is an All-Star-caliber player this year? He has a higher wOBA than All-Star first base reserves Gonzalez (.386) and Ryan Howard (.367). And, Huff's WAR is almost one and a half points better than Howard's (1.3).

Did Huff Get Snubbed?
Huff deserved an All-Star berth, but this system for first basemen is flawed to begin with. The fact that Joey Votto didn't make the roster is a travesty. Huff, unfortunately, is a victim at a position where fans, players and managers value big flies and hype more than actual overall performance.

Matt Cain
6-7 record, 2.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.60 FIP, 2.1 WAR.

Cain was an All-Star last year, and his year this season has been pretty similar to his 2009. He still has been pretty lucky (.262 BABIP) and his high xFIP (4.70) suggest that he may be due for a tough stretch sometime soon, but Cain has still been solid as the Giants' second-best pitcher behind Lincecum. Cain has showed improved control (2.93 BB/9, the first time it's been under three in his career), and he has already thrown almost as many complete games (three) as last season (four).

The main difference between Cain of this season and Cain of last year has been the record. Last year, Cain went 10-2 in the first half of the season, and it seemed to ride him into an All-Star berth. Don't believe the record has any effect? Look at Ubaldo Jimenez, who's advanced numbers are actually LESS impressive than a season ago. What has gotten him into the All-Star game? His 14-1 record trumps his 6-9 record in the first half a season ago.

Much like Jimenez isn't a better pitcher than he was a year ago (though he certainly should have gotten more credit), Cain isn't much WORSE a pitcher in 2010 in comparison to 2009. It's just that the run support hasn't been great (typical for Cain) and he hasn't gotten as lucky.

Did Cain Get Snubbed?
The problem with Cain is that he may have not been an All-Star caliber pitcher last year if not for his 10-2 record. He doesn't have great strikeout stuff, and his BABIP shows that he has been lucky this year (though his 76.4 LOB percentage suggests he hasn't been as lucky as 2009, when his LOB percentage wasn't under 83 percent for the first three months of play). Cain is a very good pitcher, don't get me wrong. But is he an All-Star like Lincecum based on the numbers? That might be harder to prove, especially when Cain isn't ranked in the Top-15 of NL Starting Pitchers in terms of FIP.

Andres Torres
.275 average, .819 OPS, 15 stolen bases, .370 wOBA, 11.0 UZR, 3.0 WAR.

Torres would have been a great story for the All-Star team. The 33-year old journeyman who went from poor, free swinging slap hitter with the Detroit Tigers to patient, speedy hitter with pop to the Giants. Torres has all the credentials of an All-Star candidate: great speed (15 stolen bases on 18 attempts), great defense (27.1 UZR/150), excellent run generation (10 wRAA), and plate patience (0.68 BB/K ratio).

Unfortunately, the powers that be felt Michael Bourn and his .319 wOBA was a better candidate in the outfield (seriously, I hate this "Every team needs one All-Star" rule; the Fresno Grizzlies have more All-Star candidates than the Houston Astros).

Torres can certainly rank up there with the best outfielders in the National League. However, Torres unfortunately plays at a position where the talent level is very deep. Torres' wOBA ranks him 12th out of NL outfielders. Fellow All-Star Snubs like Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus look to be far more enticing candidates than Torres, though Torres' defensive value does give him an edge (He has the second-best UZR out of NL outfielders).

Did Torres Get Snubbed?
When you look at him in terms of pre-season hype and offense alone? No. There are a lot better outfielders offensively than Torres (though that shouldn't take anything away from Torres' season). However, when you look at his defense, and add that with his offensive numbers? Torres looks a lot more like an All-Star-worthy player. Unfortunately, it's offense, not defense and overall value that generate hype for an All-Star berth, and that killed Torres' chances before it could get started.

Juan Uribe
.256 average, 12 HR, .335 wOBA, 2.6 wRAA, 1.6 WAR.

Would you believe me if I told you that Uribe, going into today, was the third-best shortstop in terms of wOBA? Would you believe me if I told you that Uribe has been better offensively than Jose Reyes, who made the All-Star team, and Uribe's higher wOBA and wRAA prove it?

Well, it's the truth, and though he has cooled recently, Uribe still could make an argument that he has been one of the National League's better shortstops this season. Uribe has hit with some surprising pop (12 home runs) and he has done this despite his BABIP (.262) being shockingly low (the league average is .299 and his BABIP last year was .325).

Did Uribe Get Snubbed?
I love Uribe, but no. He didn't. The National League shortstop position is shockingly shallow in terms of talent beyond Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez. Uribe is simply the best of a rather mediocre bunch. Furthermore, Uribe's minus-6.6 UZR/150 at shortstop this year has killed any overall value he might have, and despite a high BB/K ratio (0.57), he has swung at more pitches outside the strike zone this year (32.2 percent in comparison to 31 percent last year) and has a higher whiff percentage in 2010 (12.2 percent) than in 2009 (11.5 percent). Uribe is a solid utility infielder to have, but he's no All-Star.

Is Jonathan Sanchez Worth Trading Away?

2010-07-03T12:08:00.000-07:00

First off, I consider myself to be a big Jonathan Sanchez fan. I've been a fan of him since he burst on the scene in 2006, appearing in 27 games with the Giants his rookie season. Sanchez strikes me as a special player. On stuff alone, he is surprisingly good. Sure, he doesn't rock it up in the high 90's, but his K/9 has been over eight since 2007. The man knows how strike guys out.

However, like most pitchers with great strikeout stuff, Sanchez has been haunted by control issues. In fact, saying he has control issues is an understatement. That's like saying Lady Gaga doesn't know how to dress "properly" at a baseball game.

Sanchez's career BB/9 is 4.59 and his career K/BB ratio accordingly is 2.01. Those aren't exactly impressive, and aren't necessarily indicators of future dominance. Sure, the strikeouts are nice, but in order to really be something special at the Major League, a pitcher has to be able to throw strikes. Ask Omar Minaya and Mets fans about taking risks and giving a lot of money to a high strikeout pitcher with control issues (cough...Oliver Perez...cough).

So, much like last season, Sanchez's name suddenly has become a hot topic in terms of trade talks. After all, the Giants do have Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner is finally learning the Major League ropes at the end of the rotation. Sanchez could develop into a solid pitcher, but he has been too inconsistent in his career for Giants fans and management to be certain.

Furthermore, Sanchez's value has never really been higher.

If you look at the standard numbers, Sanchez blows away his first half stats from a year ago. By the All-Star break in 2009, Sanchez had a 3-8 record, a 4.69 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP (and that was INCLUDING the No-Hitter against the Padres). This year, Sanchez sports a 6-6 record, a 3.26 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. That's a vast improvement from where he was at this point last season (or at least according to the standard numbers).

The dilemma last year was trying to sell Sanchez despite his stats looking awful. This year, the Giants don't have that dilemma. The Giants can dish Sanchez, and I'm sure many teams will be happy to take the hook. However, before Giants fans and management are ready to trade away the Puerto Rican lefty, they have to ask themselves three things before making such a deal:

1.) What can we get in return for Sanchez?
2.) How will Sanchez perform for the rest of the season?
3.) How much do we trust Madison Bumgarner?

The first question is the most obvious one. Rumors have circulated that there could be a possible Sanchez and Thomas Neal (who's tearing it up now in Richmond after a slow start) for Prince Fielder deal. ESPN's Buster Olney has shut down such speculations, saying that Sanchez simply wouldn't be enough and that Matt Cain would have to be a centerpiece in the deal (which isn't or at least shouldn't happen).

With Fielder out of the way then, the most likely scenario in a trade involving Sanchez would either involve David DeJesus or Jose Guillen, both names that have been linked to possible trades involving the Giants. Though the outfield is crowded, DeJesus would be a solid fit (as Fangraphs writer Dave Cameron points out). Guillen on the other hand, wouldn't (too much of a fluke year this season, and he's starting to decline too).

In terms of the second point, right now it's tough to tell. Sanchez's success this year has been dependent on his April, which was very good. In April, Sanchez posted a 12.21 K/9, a 2.54 K/BB ratio and had a 2.14 FIP in 24.1 IP. However, in May and June, he has sported FIP totals of 4.27 and 4.63, respectively, and his K/BB ratios have been under two the past two months as well.

Then again, Sanchez did bounce back in the second half, so Giants fans can expect the same, right? Well, Sanchez right now is on pace for setting a career high in terms of innings (ZiPS has him finishing at 177 IP; his previous high was last year when he threw 163 IP), so it's tough to tell whether or not he can return to that second half for from a year ago. We just don't know how he'll hold up as he pitches more innings (though 177 isn't THAT bad of a load).

Furthermore, Sanchez's contact rates at are a higher total than last season (77.3 percent in comparison to 73.8 percent last year) and his swinging strike percentage is down as well (from 10.9 percent to 9.4 percent). This would be okay if he was throwing strikes, but unfortunately, he isn't (his strike zone percentage is down to 45.9 percent, the lowest of his Major League career; it was 48.3 percent a season ago).

As for the last point, if the Giants deal Sanchez, the pressure will be on Bumgarner to step up and be the fourth starter immediately (which would mean a return of Todd Wellemeyer or Joe Martinez to the starting rotation). That is a lot of pressure to put on Bumgarner, especially when you consider a.) He's only 21 years old and b.) He's only pitched 24 total innings at the Major League level.

If the team has playoff aspirations, they are going to need Sanchez. And, even if they don't have playoff aspirations, it would serve them better to hang onto Sanchez (who still has two years left of arbitration) for next season, rather than going out and spending MORE money on a free agent pitcher to fill the fifth spot next year. Bumgarner is going to be a solid pitcher, but they need to develop him a little more in the Majors, for he is going to be susceptible to getting hit (as we have seen in his first two starts this year) until he perfects his secondary pitches more. Sanchez is more of a sure deal, even if he can be erratic at times.

In my opinion, unless the Giants can make a play at Fielder (which I think is highly unliklely), the Giants should stay pat and stick with Sanchez. Is he going to bounce back in the second half like he did in 2009? I don't know, but for next season, Sanchez is a cheap, valuable option that the Giants would benefit from in the rotation (his WAR is still 1.5, which values at six million; he'll probably makes about half of that in arbitration next year).

And, if the Giants want to stay in the playoff hunt, Sanchez needs to stay on this roster. Bumgarner and Wellemeyer/Martinez at the end of the rotation isn't going to get them into the postseason. But Sanchez and Bumgarner?

I think Giants fans can agree the chances are better with the latter.

What the Bengie Molina Trade Means for the Giants

2010-07-01T07:27:00.000-07:00

It's a great day for Giants fans today. Sure, Bengie Molina going to Texas for Chris Ray finally opens up the catching job for Buster Posey, something Giants fans have been clamoring for since Spring Training. Yes, the Giants get another arm in the bullpen, something that can't be taken for granted.

However, I think this trade means something more than just those two things above.

Today, the Giants youth movement should begin for the remainder of the season.

Of course, I say "should" because this is a team managed by Bruce Bochy and a team run by Brian Sabean. Bochy's affinity for veterans has been well-reported since his Padres days and Sabean is always itching to pull the trigger on deals at the Trade Deadline.

However, this latest series against the Dodgers showed that the Giants, unfortunately, are pretenders more than contenders in the National League West. At 40-37, the Giants have lost five straight and sit 5.5 games back in the NL West behind the division-leading Padres. They are 8-17 against the National League West (2-12 against the Dodgers and Padres) and fell from second to fourth after the Dodgers series. Unfortunately for Giants fans, they seem to be heading in the opposite direction momentum-wise in comparison to the Dodgers and Rockies, not a good thing considering how much better those teams are set up offensively.

The Giants may still "be in this thing" but they are hanging on by a thread, and it is only a matter of time before the wheels officially come off on this Giants wagon that has been teetering for so long.

And I think the Molina trade is a sign that the Giants management realizes that...finally.

The Giants really should be in "sell" mode this trade deadline, with all the veterans available for a certain price. Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria and even Freddy Sanchez should all be "trade-able" should a "contender" be calling. The Giants should have continued their rebuilding process last year, and started the whole "trade veterans for prospects" ordeal in 2009. A fluke season prevented that and put the organizational plan back a year. This year, the Giants have no excuse.

This isn't a bad thing for the Giants. There is young talent on this team and in this organization. Posey is one of the top catching prospects in the game. John Bowker is hitting .330 with nine homes runs and a 1.064 OPS since being demoted back to Fresno. Nate Schierholtz is one of the better defensive outfielders in the game (18.2 UZR/150) and has honed is free-swinging approach from a season ago (0.72 BB/K ratio).

And down on the farm? Ryan Rohlinger, Matt Downs and Tyler Graham have also proved to be too good for the Pacific Coast League this year with the Grizzlies, and in Double-A Richmond, Thomas Neal is finally coming back to form after a slow start this season in the Eastern League. He is currently hitting .288 with a team-leading eight home runs and 43 RBI.

The Giants youngsters should be given a chance, and that chance should be now. This organization has nothing to lose. The Giants have already given the chances to the vets, and as of today, they haven't gotten the job done and it doesn't seem as if they will get the job done either in 2010. The young players in this organization can provide upside, and even if many of them struggle for the remainder of the season, they will gain valuable experience for 2011.

Of course, it all comes down to whether the organization will want to do this or not. I have a feeling Bochy won't concede and thus, managing partner Bill Neukom has a decision to make. Does he continue to trust in Bochy and his "blocking the future" ways? Or does he send a message and have Bochy packing his bags like Molina?

It'll be very interesting for the Giants this July. There certainly will be pressure on the Giants to make a deal, and we have already heard the names pop up (David DeJesus, Jose Guillen and even Prince Fielder). However, that shouldn't be the course for the Giants. One guy can't rescue this team and push them into the playoffs. This team has too many holes too fill, and the holes simply can't be filled in the span of one month.

As a Giants fan, all I can say is this to Sabean and the Giants organization: don't waste the money. Go young, save the cash, and if anything, start stockpiling for the future. There's no shame in it. The Rays, Marlins and A's have done it, and the results have been kind to them.

Yes, Posey finally takes his place behind the plate. That is the immediate result of the Molina trade. However, this Molina trade goes beyond Posey. It should trigger more playing time for MORE young players on this Giants roster.

We'll see in a month if that happens.

Ten Things Giants Fans Should Know Before the Start of the Dodgers Series

2010-06-28T13:30:00.000-07:00

All right! Dodgers-Giants starts today. Usually when it comes to baseball, I don't get super-psyched about certain things. I like to keep things in perspective, because a baseball season is a marathon...one...long...marathon. So, as psyched as I would like to get about hot starts (e.g. Pat Burrell), I try to keep it in perspective because I know for every hot start that's bound to cool (as we have seen from Nate Schierholtz this year...though Schierholtz should still be playing), there's a slump a player is bound to break out of (I'm mostly pointing this out to all those Panda haters on Twitter).

That being said, Dodgers-Giants is different. It's baseball's oldest, most competitive and most heated rivalry. The only reason more fans don't know that is because Red Sox-Yankees gets all the headlines on ESPN, and the rivalry is on the West Coast. I can't blame the East Coast fans though. It's kind of hard to get psyched about a rivalry when most of the games start at 10 p.m. on their side of the country.

However, for the West Coast baseball fans, and especially Giants fans, here are 10 things you should know before the series' first pitch tonight.

1.) The Giants and Dodgers are separated by 0.5 games in the NL West.

We're rough 75 games into the season and the Giants and Dodgers are fighting for that second spot currently behind the first place Padres, who lead the NL West by 4.5 games. Granted, the season is still very early, so whether or not the Giants or Dodgers come out on top is really trivial at this point. However, getting a series win over the Dodgers would be nice, and would give them some much needed momentum as they head into the All-Star break.

2.) Zito, Cain and J. Sanchez will be on the hill for the Giants this series.

It's too bad Lincecum pitched the rubber game of the Red Sox series, but the Giants still bring a solid rotation into this series. There are concerns of course: Zito has bounced back in June a little bit (2.45 K/BB ratio; 4.63 xFIP) after a rough May (1.07 K/BB ratio; 5.51 xFIP), but he's still far from his April-form (2.71 FIP; 4.14 xFIP). Cain is coming off his worst start of the year (2.2 IP, 9 H, 7 ER), and J. Sanchez is well...J. Sanchez.

3.) Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers is one of the league's best closers.

Don't believe me? He has a 7 K/BB ratio, a 0.93 FIP and a 1.93 xFIP. And he's doing this despite posting a .395 BABIP. Sure, I hate saying it because he's a Dodger, but if the Giants get into the ninth behind, chances are, Broxton's not blowing it.

4.) Edgar Renteria is hitting well since returning off the disabled list.

Renteria may be the key to this series, which I hate to say because it will mean the benching of either Pablo Sandoval or Buster Posey (The Giants won't bench Juan Uribe, but considering he's their main power source, I wouldn't want them too). In his past seven games, Renteria has 10 hits including 3 doubles, and has drawn four walks in 28 plate appearances. Who knows how long Renteria will be on the Giants (I think he'll be good trade bait at the Trade Deadline), but he could have a surprise impact this series.

5.) Sandoval could see the bench in a couple games this series.

It hasn't been a great month for the Panda, which makes two bad months in a row. In 94 plate appearances this month, he has a .226 average, a .280 wOBA and a .119 ISO (Eli Whiteside has a higher ISO than Sandoval). Those numbers, along with the cries of the panicking Giants fans out there and Renteria's hot return may doom Sandoval, which is a shame because he was an emotional sparkplug in last August's series at AT&T Park when he challenged Dodgers pitcher James MaCdonald after an inside pitch.

6.) Manny Ramirez is the Dodgers hitter to watch.

In the month of June, Manny is hitting .333 with four home runs and has a wOBA of .420 and a wRC of 17.0. Considering how much of an impact Manny had last year, this is definitely frightening to see for Giants fans.

7.) Matt Kemp is struggling badly this June.

Kemp may have kissed his All-Star status goodbye after a miserable June. His wOBA is .253 and he has a BB/K ratio of 0.25. Kemp hasn't shown much power either, as evidenced by his .130 ISO. Kemp had a big impact in last year's August series at AT&T Park, so hopefully, his cold streak will continue for the remainder of June.

8.) Other than Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo, the Dodgers bullpen is a mess.

George Sherrill has a xFIP of 5.93 in June. Carlos Monasterios has a xFIP of 6.25. Those were two relievers who were supposed to have a big impact for the Dodgers this year and they haven't lived up to expectations. Add that with their implosion against the New York Yankees at home last night, and it's easy to see why the Dodgers bullpen won't have a lot of momentum as they play the Giants tonight.

9.) John Ely has been mortal in June.

Remember the 1.71 FIP Ely of May? Well, he's been far from that form in June. His FIPBABIP (.259 in comparison to .293 in May). Ely has struggled with control immensely this June, as evidenced by his 1.50 K/BB ratio. Ely will start the second game of the series against the Giants on Tuesday. Hopefully, Ely will be close to June form, which could help Cain notch his first career win against the Dodgers (0-7 lifetime against LA).

10.) The Giants still lead the overall regular season series.

The Giants have won 1,080 games in the history of this series. The Dodgers have won 1,068. Giants still up by 12 games. That still counts in my book.

Better in Defeat: Comparing Madison Bumgarner's 2009 and 2010 Giants Debuts

2010-06-26T23:21:00.000-07:00

Finally, Madison Bumgarner was called up and made his first start of the 2010 season and second start of his career. I must say, for Giants fans, it was a bit of a nerve-wrecking occasion. If his 2009 debut was filled with excitement and hope, then the 2010 version may have been one filled with dread and worry.

After all, after the failed experiment of Todd Wellemeyer so far this year, and with neither Joe Martinez, Eric Hacker or Kevin Pucetas the long-term solution, a lot of pressure rested on Bumgarner in his debut tonight against the Red Sox. If he did well, then he may have earned his spot in the Giants rotation for the remainder of the season. If he got shelled, well...then it would be back to Fresno, and the Giants would be shopping for a fifth starter by the trade deadline (which would undoubtedly mean more trades of prospects...sigh).

Well, how did he do? If you judge him by the loss and the two home runs and four runs allowed, then I can see why you might consider his 2010 debut a bit of a disappointment. However, Giants fans must keep two things in mind.

1.) He allowed all four runs in the first two innings and looked a lot better the next five innings. In fact, if you think about it, the notion that he went seven innings despite allowing four runs, four hits and a walk in the first two innings shows how efficient Bumgarner was from the third-through-seventh. Hence, rough start, but great finish in Bumgarner's debut (which evens out to above average, if not borderline good, start).

2.) This start was a heck of a lot more impressive than his 2009 Major League debut.

Sure, he allowed less runs in his first professional start against the Padres. Yes he was in line for the win in that start until the bullpen imploded against San Diego.

Look at the advanced pitch numbers from both starts though. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball's Pitch F/X tool.)

Bumgarner's 2009 Start against the Padres

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %	Linear Weights	Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	88.11	90.4	4.00	8.09	48	31 / 64.58%	2 / 4.17%	0.8653	0.424
CH (Changeup)	85.85	87.6	7.45	4.41	4	3 / 75.00%	1 / 25.00%	-0.2473	0.436
SL (Slider)	78.94	88.3	-2.42	2.36	18	12 / 66.67%	0 / 0.00%	-0.6633	0.475
FC (Cutter)	77.03	77.7	-4.67	3.52	4	1 / 25.00%	0 / 0.00%	0.0485	0.481
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	81.30	81.3	7.22	4.19	1	1 / 100.00%	0 / 0.00%	-0.0624	0.455
Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate. Pitch Type LWTS correspond to how many runs were likely to score on a particular pitch based on average run expectancy when each pitch was thrown and what happened as a result. Negative scores indicate more effective pitches. Time to Plate is the time, in seconds, that it takes an average pitch of this type to reach the plate. This is strongly correlated with velocity, but also factors in movement.

Bumgarner's 2010 Start Against the Red Sox

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %	Linear Weights	Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	89.70	92.4	4.14	9.20	56	40 / 71.43%	0 / 0.00%	-0.0161	0.417
CH (Changeup)	81.18	81.9	6.03	6.17	5	4 / 80.00%	1 / 20.00%	-0.3472	0.462
SL (Slider)	82.42	85.2	-1.72	2.61	17	11 / 64.71%	2 / 11.76%	0.1938	0.454
CU (Curveball)	71.79	73	-6.70	-4.22	9	7 / 77.78%	1 / 11.11%	-0.5003	0.526
FC (Cutter)	85.10	85.3	-1.91	4.97	2	0 / 0.00%	0 / 0.00%	0.0749	0.437
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	80.69	81.9	6.58	5.02	7	4 / 57.14%	0 / 0.00%	-0.5074	0.460
Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate. Pitch Type LWTS correspond to how many runs were likely to score on a particular pitch based on average run expectancy when each pitch was thrown and what happened as a result. Negative scores indicate more effective pitches. Time to Plate is the time, in seconds, that it takes an average pitch of this type to reach the plate. This is strongly correlated with velocity, but also factors in movement.

A few things really jump out when you compare these two graphs:

1.) Bumgarner's velocity is back up, which has been the worry about Bumgarner since his debut last year. Last September, Bumgarner was averaging 88.1 MPH on the gun and was only topping out at around 90. Against the Red Sox? The average velocity was 89.7 MPH and he was topping out at around 92.4 MPH, which was what the scouts were reporting this year (nothing came out about his velocity before his debut last season).

2.) Bumgarner mixed it up with his pitches this time around. Last year, of the 75 pitches he threw, 48 were four-seam fastballs (64 percent) and 18 were sliders (24 percent). Hence, Bumgarner showed little pitch variety in his professional debut, which was a worry because he didn't have the velocity to back up such a limited pitch repertoire. Today though? He threw 96 pitches total, showed six pitches (in comparison to five last year) and threw only 56 four-seam fastballs (58.3 percent) and 17 sliders (17.7 percent). What was even more impressive was the fact that he threw 23 pitches (24 percent) that weren't four-seam fastballs or sliders, a increase from the nine (12 percent) he threw last year.

3.) Last year, Bumgarner had only three swinging strikes of the 75 pitches he threw last September, which totals to about four percent. Today, Bumgarner had four swing and misses (4.2 percent). The Major League Average is about eight percent, so in terms of getting guys to whiff, Bumgarner has been below average in both of his starts. Hopefully, he'll continue to develop the secondary pitches and continue to have confidence in them, because from the look of it, he isn't and probably won't be a pitcher that can overpower or fool people at the plate.

Another interesting thing to take a look at (I would put it on here, but I don't want things to get too graph heavy, so I'll just hyperlink) would be the inning-by-inning breakdowns of his 2009 and 2010 starts. He definitely was a lot more efficient in terms of throwing strikes, even with the shaky first two innings and all.

Overall, the numbers from today are solid, though far from spectacular. If anything, Bumgarner may be ready to take the fifth spot in the rotation for the remainder of the year, simply because I think he's a better option than Wellemeyer or Martinez. (And at the very least, it would almost force Bruce Bochy to play Buster Posey behind the plate more since they were battery mates in Fresno.)

However, like I've mentioned before on this blog, people expecting Bumgarner to be the next Tim Lincecum may be vastly disappointed if you judge him on his first two Major League starts. He simply hasn't shown (and most likely just doesn't have) a strong ability to strike people out.

Fredi Gonzalez's Firing Should Turn Up the Heat on the Giants' Bruce Bochy

2010-06-24T14:55:00.000-07:00

I can't say I'm surprised that Florida Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria decided to fire manager Fredi Gonzalez. This is an owner who fired manager Joe Girardi, even though Girardi won Manager of the Year honors that same year. This is an owner who won two titles in Florida, only to dismantle the team completely the following year. This is an owner who campaigned for a new stadium when he was the owner of the Montreal Expos, didn't get what he wanted, and bailed on the Expos, hence killing baseball officially in Montreal.

Loria is a terrible owner. The only reason he isn't put up there with the Chris Cohans and Donald Sterlings (Sorry the NBA Draft is on my mind) of the world is because he actually got bailed out by two world championships. Sometimes even the bad get lucky, I guess.

That being said, Gonzalez's firing is a big deal and should be a big deal to Giants fans.

Gonzalez and Bochy both took over the Marlins and Giants, respectively, in the 2007 season. Both teams were under similar rebuilding circumstances. The Marlins were expected to compete in the NL East despite having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, while the Giants were looking to start afresh in the Post-Barry Bonds era.

Well, here is Gonzalez and Bochy's records as manager going into today:

Gonzalez: 276-279, .497 W-L % (in 555 games as manager of the Marlins).
Bochy: 270-287, .485 W-L % (in 557 games as manger of the Giants).

While neither Bochy nor Gonzalez went to playoffs the past three plus seasons as managers, Gonzalez did have a better record at the time of his firing and actually had two plus .500 seasons entering 2010 (unlike Bochy who had only one).

What has been Gonzalez's undoing? His clash with superstar Hanley Ramirez, in addition to his disagreements with owner Loria.

Gonzalez publicly chastised Ramirez after a booted ball, and promptly took him out after the inning was over. Ramirez lashed out, called out Gonzalez's Major League "experience" and before he knew it, Gonzalez was fighting a battle he couldn't possibly win. Even though the situation was apparently "mended" it was obvious that Gonzalez's time as manager was ticking in Florida.

To credit Bochy, he has a reputation of managing the clubhouse. After the days of Dusty Baker and Felipe Alou, where clubhouse tension was obvious and very public, Bochy has calmed all that down and has kept whatever issues they have in the clubhouse only.

Other than that though, Bochy's profile as Giants manager has paled in comparison to Gonzalez.

Gonzalez took the young players he was given by GM Larry Beinfest, and has given them every day playing opportunities. Chris Coghlan comes up? He gets everyday playing time. Mike Stanton comes up? He gets every day playing time. He has been pretty consistent playing young players in this Marlins organization, and the Marlins have competed, despite the lack of "experience" on their roster.

That is a far cry from Bochy's managing style. While GM Brian Sabean made the ill decision to re-sign Bengie Molina, Bochy has absolutely handled the Buster Posey situation poorly. Posey is prevented from playing catcher (which the Giants paid and drafted him to do, or else they wouldn't have given him a $6.25 million signing bonus, a Giants record) and now, it seems he may be doing platoon duty with Pablo Sandoval, who is having a down season himself. He has benched guys quickly either due to slow starts (John Bowker) or slumps (Nate Schierholtz), and has given countless opportunities to veterans (Molina, Aaron Rowand, etc.) who have not made the most of their chances.

The Giants and Marlins were supposed to be rebuilding. One manager did a good job of handling the rebuilding. The other has done a poor job, and the records prove the point further.

I don't think you have to guess very hard who I'm talking about.

Granted, I don't know who's really calling the shots. Is it Sabean telling Bochy to play the older, more paid vets? Or is it Bochy making the calls by himself? Either way, this is disappointing. After a second straight loss to Houston today, it is obvious this team is on shaky ground. Unfortunately, the Giants most likely are going to handle it the wrong way: by adding more veterans and dishing out more prospects by the trade deadline. By August, I wouldn't be surprised to see more veterans seeing the field, and more young, cheaper prospects either rotting on the bench or in Fresno.

I guarantee you Gonzalez would have handled this roster a lot differently than Bochy would, and I guarantee as well that the Giants would have been a whole lot more successful to boot. Sure, Gonzalez wouldn't have pleased Rowand or Molina as much as Bochy has, but the youngster would have played and got the opportunities they never would have had under the Giants' current manager.

It's too bad there's another year left on Bochy's contract. By 2012, it's almost certain that a manager like Gonzalez would be off the market.

How Does the Giants' Tim Lincecum Stack Up Against the Rockies' Ubaldo Jimenez?

2010-06-23T09:58:00.000-07:00

The hot talk this year has been all about Ubaldo Jimenez, and for good reason. In addition to throwing the season's first no-hitter, he has a 13-1 record and a 1.15 ERA going into today's start against Boston. Chances are, if there is any Cy Young talk, Jimenez is always the first guy mentioned.

However, would you believe me if I said that on paper, Tim Lincecum's 2010 is more impressive than Jimenez's?

First off, this is strictly a look at the numbers. I'm not saying Lincecum has been better than Jimenez or that Jimenez isn't impressive. Jimenez's stuff is incredible (he averages 96.5 MPH on his fastball), and I think Giants fans can attest to that after watching him dominate at AT&T Park earlier this year.

Other than the eye test though, as well as the wins and ERA (which as we all know, can be flawed measures of evaluating a pitcher's success), Jimenez's numbers pales in comparison to Lincecum.

Let's take a look at some of the advanced numbers for both pitchers.

Jimenez: 7.82 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 2.44 K/BB, 0.27 HR/9, .185 AVG., 1.00 WHIP, 91.2 percent LOB %, 2.94 FIP, 3.62 xFIP.
Lincecum: 10.10 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, 2.90 K/BB, 0.45 HR/9, .226 AVG., 1.21 WHIP, 76.7 percent LOB %, 2.73 FIP, 3.14 xFIP.

Lincecum dominates Jimenez's in the strikeout department, and while Jimenez has an advantage in the walks department, it really doesn't make that much of a difference (for Jimenez's K/BB is still lower than Lincecum's). I find the most startling stats his FIP and xFIP numbers, which are higher than Lincecum's. For as dominating as Jimenez's stuff has been, it seems, just looking at his FIP numbers, that he has gotten a lot of help from his defense and has gotten luckier in comparison to Lincecum. I believed this even more when I took a look at this stat:

Jimenez: .239 BABIP.
Lincecum: .313 BABIP.

Jimenez's BABIP is 63 points BELOW the league average, while Lincecum's is 11 points ABOVE league average. As good as Jimenez has been, there is no way he can sustain a BABIP that low for the remainder of the season. Yes, a good defense behind him, and the lack of good contact against him (his line drive percentage is 13.8 percent, while Lincecum's is 22 percent) may explain why hitters haven't been able to find hits against Jimenez. However, in the grand scheme of things, Jimenez's BABIP will only go up, which will affect his other numbers such as ERA and wins (unless the offense picks him up, which is possible because the Rockies have a good offense).

Another reason why I like Lincecum more than Jimenez this season? Lincecum has allowed less contact to hitters in 2010 than Jimenez. Lincecum has a contact rate of 72.2 percent this year, and a swinging strike percentage of 11.9 percent. Jimenez on the other hand has a contact rate of 79 percent (almost two points higher than last season) and only has a swinging strike percentage of 8.5 percent (Jimenez has never had a swinging strike percentage in double figures, while Lincecum has never had a swinging strike percentage under 10 percent).

What does this mean? For as wicked as Jimenez's stuff is, he simply doesn't get batters to miss as much as Lincecum. While this is not necessarily a bad thing (as Greg Maddux showed), this kind of pitching style can be subject to inconsistency. Sure, Jimenez is dealing now because the balls are going to infielders. That being said, should the luck run out or the defense decline behind him, Jimenez's numbers will look far less impressive. As for Lincecum, because he can strike guys out more consistently, and induces less contact than Jimenez, his numbers will be more stable, because he's relying less on his defense and luck.

I'm not trying to take away anything from Jimenez. He has been impressive, and I've seen a lot of his starts, so I can attest visually, he's a real deal ace. In my mind, comparing Jimenez and Lincecum is like comparing "The Godfather" against "Goodfellas" in terms of which is the better mob movie. They're both good, but it's all a matter of opinion really. (And if those two are those movies, then Todd Wellemeyer is "Fatal Desire." Seriously, if you have Netflix, add it to your instant queue. It may be one of the most unintentionally funny Thrillers ever made.)

What I am trying to prove though is that Jimenez's season so far may not be as impressive as everyone would like to think, and that Lincecum's season may not be as down as some baseball fans would like to believe as well. Jimenez is bound to regress, and Lincecum is bound to take care of his control problems and improve.

Giants fans saw that last night from Lincecum against the Astros. I am interested to see how Jimenez will do against Boston tonight.

New Poll Up: Which Giants Deserve to Make the NL All-Star Team?

2010-06-21T13:18:00.000-07:00

Just a quick post. I put up a poll on the sidebar asking which Giants deserve to make the All-Star game in Anaheim this year. I narrowed it down to eight guys who have a realistic chance of making it:

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Freddy Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, and Andres Torres.

I left out Jonathan Sanchez from the list because of his inconsistency and Buster Posey and Pat Burrell because they don't have that many games under the belt.

You can vote for multiple guys on the list. In my opinion: I would think five guys are deserving: Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, Huff, and Torres. Uribe has been good, but I can't see him getting a boost over Troy Tulowitzki (who was an MVP candidate until he got hurt) and Hanley Ramirez (though he certainly is a better candidate than guys like Jimmy Rollins and Orlando Cabrera, as Crazy Crabbers notes). Also, I put Sandoval on this list more out of formality, since his year hasn't been as good as last season. As for Sanchez, he too has been awesome, but I'm not sure if his sample is large enough in comparison to other second baseman in the league.

Would love any input on your all-star picks. You can vote for real on MLB.com. It would be nice to see some Giants position players on the NL roster for once.

Is the Giants' Brian Wilson An Elite Closer?

2010-06-20T23:09:00.000-07:00

Brian Wilson is a constant source of frustration for Giants fans. It has been a far too common sight to see Wilson struggle in the ninth with a one run lead, and load the bases either through a series of hits, walks and/or both. Sometimes Wilson closes the game out and the Giants win. Sometimes he doesn't and the Giants lose. To put it nicely, it is more comfortable for a Bruce Willis to watch Ashton Kutcher on the screen in the movie "The Killers" than for a Giants fan to watch Wilson in the ninth at times.

So, I can see why the talk of Brian Wilson being an elite closer may sound like hogwash. Believe me. If you asked me the same question in Spring Training, I would have given you an emphatic "No way" and would have believed that a sequel to "Striptease" was more likely. (Boy...I'm really running with the Demi Moore-Bruce Willis divorce jokes, huh?)

When you look at the stats though, well...you can make the argument.

At the very least, Wilson has improved. During his All-Star season of 2008, Wilson posted 41 saves in 62.1 IP. However, his numbers other than his saves were far from impressive. He had a 4.62 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, a K/BB ratio of 2.39 and a FIP of 3.93.

In 2008, he was closer to Matt Herges than Robb Nen in terms of Giants closers.

Last year though, he made tremendous strides. While he didn't make the NL All-Star roster, he certainly made a case that he deserved one by year's end. He did earn less saves than 2008 (38), but he pitched more innings (72.1 IP) and posted a better ERA (2.74), WHIP (1.20), K/BB ratio (3.07) and FIP (2.50).

And this year? He's on pace to surpass his already solid 2009 numbers, and has put himself in the discussion of perhaps earning a spot on this year's NL All-Star roster (Of course, that's if Charlie Manuel doesn't fill all the reserves with Phillies first).

First off, his K percentage is up (from 10.33 to 12.58) and his BB percentage is down (3.36 to 3.07), which has produced a stellar K/BB ratio (4.10). While his WHIP (1.23) is a bit underwhelming, his FIP (1.90), back up the assertion that he's been a better pitcher than what his 2.15 ERA says (which is always the challenge for relievers because ERA numbers can fluctuate so easily due to the lack of innings in comparison to starters).

The most startling stat? The fact that he is putting up these numbers despite having a BABIP of .375 (which is almost 75 points above the league average and 55 points higher than his BABIP last season).

What has been the secret to Wilson's success this year? Well, he's getting ahead in the count against more hitters for one.

In 2008, Wilson had a first strike percentage of 57.7 percent (below the league average of 58 percent). Last year, the percentage was 60.4. This season? His first strike percentage is 66.7 percent.

Why is this important? Being ahead of the count has paid dividends in allowing him to throw his slider more (7.9 percent in comparison to only 5.7 percent last year), which has become his most effective pitch this year. Sure, Wilson's fastball has some serious velocity (96.1 MPH), but his slider has been the better out pitch.

This year, his fastball is valued by Fangraphs at 1.26 runs above average per 100 pitches. His slider on the other hand? It is valued at 5.26 runs above average per 100 pitches. (Note: the higher the number, the better, like UZR; basically, think that it saves 5.26 runs above average per 100 pitches, for example.)

The solid repertoire of a fastball, slider and cutter (which he throws 27.1 percent of the time), has made Wilson a force to be reckoned with this year. According to ZiPS projections, Wilson is one pace for 70.1 IP. Those kind of innings logged would be beneficial to the Giants bullpen, which has struggled at times this year, especially Jeremy Affeldt, who was shelled again in his latest outing against the Blue Jays.

Now, Wilson may have improved from 2009 and yes, he may be a solid closer. That being said, I'm sure some naysayers are thinking "He's not one of the league's top closers and he's not an All-Star, either."

Let's take a look at some of the saves leaders in Major League Baseball.

Matt Capps of the Nationals is atop the league with 20 saves, Neftali Feliz of the Rangers and Kevin Gregg of the Blue Jays have 18 saves, and Heath Bell of the Padres, Jon Rauch of the Twins and Francisco Cordero of the Reds have 17 saves.

Those are the closers, along with Wilson, who are in the top-eight of the league in terms of saves.

However, how many of those top-seven guys, Wilson included, are in the top-ten in terms of FIP? One.

That one closer is Wilson.

How many of those guys are in the top ten in terms of xFIP?

Only Wilson.

So, Giants fans, as hard as it is for some to stomach, Wilson is finally a worthy successor to fan favorite Robb Nen. We had to suffer through Dustin Hermanson, Matt Herges and Armando Bentiez to get to this point, but the day of finally having a reliable closer in the ninth has come. Not only does he deserve a spot on the NL All-Star roster, but he deserves to be talked about when baseball fans talk about the league's best closers.

Because Wilson has been up there with the league's best so far in 2010, and he has the numbers (beyond saves) to back it up.

A Look at Fred Lewis' Transformation as a Hitter in Toronto

2010-06-17T21:50:00.000-07:00

The Blue Jays and Giants start a three game series tomorrow and I admit, I'm excited for it. I've been excited about it since April 15th:

Why? Because April 15th was the day the Giants traded a solid outfielder named Fred Lewis for $75,000 dollars.

Yep...a player with a career 4.5 WAR for chump change.

In many ways, I have gotten over it. Andres Torres has helped me get over it. Aubrey Huff has helped me get over it. Buster Posey's hot debut helped me get over it. John Bowker helped me find a new "he's getting hosed!" guy to support. (And he's from Sacramento, so that's a double-plus!)

That hasn't meant though I've completely forgotten about Fred. I've kept close tabs on him. I added him on my fantasy team for sentimental purposes. Heck, I even added a Blue Jays blogroll and adopted the Jays as my "Second Favorite team for the 2010 Season."

And, after watching Lewis this year...well...I'm surprised.

I'm not surprised that he's done well. He's always had the potential. I'm not surprised that Jays fans have taken a liking to him. He was always a class act.

I'm surprised by his dramatic change as a hitter.

Believe it Giants fans. Lewis is far from the same hitter he was in San Francisco. In fact, he's been the complete opposite of his usual self so far this 2010 season.

The numbers prove it.

The report on Lewis in San Francisco was this: he's going to strike out A LOT, but he has good speed and he's patient.

In the minors, Lewis had a career .383 OBP in 599 games. With the Giants, he had an OBP of .355 over three seasons. Furthermore, his other plate discipline numbers in his three seasons with the Giants prove the point that he was a very picky when it came to his approach.

In 2007, he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.59, had a swing percentage of 42 percent and an O-Swing percentage (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) of 21.2. In 2008, his BB/K ratio fell to 0.41 and his swing percentage rose to 43 percent, but his O-Swing percentage fell to 18.9 percent. Last year, he improved his BB/K ratio to 0.43, though his swing percentage rose to 44.4 percent and his O-swing percentage jumped to 19.4 percent.

It made sense though why Lewis was patient. He struck out a lot (his K percentage was 20.4, 26.5 and 28.5 percent from 2007-2009, respectively) and he didn't necessarily make contact as often as you would like (his contact percentage decreased from 84.3 percent in 2007 to 80 percent in 2008 to 77.6 percent). That being said, Lewis offered a skill set that a lot of Giants hitters didn't have at the time: he didn't give away strikes and he got on base. That was something the Giants certainly weren't seeing from other outfielders like Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn.

Since the trade to Toronto though, Lewis numbers look a little funny. His slash line is .291/.333/.814, and his plate discipline numbers look even more peculiar.

His O-swing percentage this year is 30 percent, a career high, and the first time in his Major League career when it's been above the league average. His swing percentage is 49.4 percent, the highest percentage since his rookie year in 2006 when it was 50 percent.

But you know what? It hasn't hurt him. Yes, Lewis is drawing less walks (his BB percentage is only 5.8 percent, almost five points lower than last year), still striking out a lot (27.7 percent exactly) and his BB/K ratio (0.23) and OBP aren't as comforting as they were in his Giants days. Yet Lewis is producing. His wOBA is .351. His wRC+ is 110. He has already matched his doubles total from last year (21) in 113 less plate appearances. His ISO at .189 is a career high by 31 points.

Lewis changed from a "patient, speedy hitter with not much power who strikes out a lot" in San Francisco to a "free swinging, speedy hitter with a little power who strikes out a lot" in Toronto. It's funny because Lewis was the kind of hitter that frustrated a lot of Giants fans for not being aggressive enough. Now, as a Blue Jay, he is ALMOST TOO aggressive. You wonder as a baseball fan if all that time he spent with Juan Uribe last year rubbed off on him at the plate when he migrated to Canada.

Now, Lewis isn't perfect. He has a minus-13.7 UZR/150 in the outfield this year with the Jays, which pretty much confirms to all the "Lewis Bashers" how bad a defensive player he is (his UZR in 2009 was 2.0). Do I think he's that bad? No, but his UZR/150 numbers two of the past three season have been negative, so the argument that he may be a GOOD defensive player may be invalid. At the very least he's average, or just slightly below and I think this year probably confirms that.

Despite his dropoff defensively, you have to feel happy for Lewis and the Blue Jays. Lewis has found playing time, and the Jays got a good player for peanuts. Maybe that's why Lewis is more aggressive now as a hitter with the Jays than his days with the Giants. Maybe he feels more relaxed. Maybe he knows manager Cito Gaston won't pull him out at the first sign of failure like Bruce Bochy would. Maybe he feels happier knowing that Blue Jays fans won't hound him every time he goes after a ball in the outfield like Giants fans did during the latter days of his career. Maybe he is more confident in Toronto because he's succeeding Jeremy Reed (who sucks) and not Barry Bonds (who is a legend).

Whatever the reason is, this is simple: Lewis, the Blue Jay, isn't the same Lewis we Giants fans knew and you know what? It's a good thing. It's nice to see a guy find a home, and it's nice to know that the Giants organization can develop good players (even if we may not play them as much as we probably should).

It will definitely be fun watching this Jays-Giants series the next three days. I can only offer Jays fans two things before the games start tomorrow:

1.) There are still some Giants fans that wish Fred was still a Giant and Eugenio Velez was still a Jay (sorry...it couldn't be helped).
2.) Sorry Jeremy Accardo, Merkin Valdez and Brian Bocock didn't turn out as well.

Bowker, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, Burriss: What Does the Future Hold for These Giants?

2010-06-16T16:47:00.000-07:00

If you're a Giants fan, take a guess the average age of the position players currently on the active roster...

If you guessed 29.4 years old, then you are correct (and John Nash from "A Beautiful Mind"-esque in math as well...congrats).

That isn't exactly young, especially when you consider the fact that most of the guys that bring that average age under 30 sit on the bench. Case in point: last night, the only players in the lineup under 30 years of age were Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey.

Now, this isn't exactly breaking ground. Giants fans have been used to Bruce Bochy's "Play the Vets At All Costs" mentality since 2007 when he first came on as manager. Some of the young guys have been solid under Bochy's tenure, and some haven't. That being said, there are some guys with solid potential, and some young guys that may just not be good enough for the big league level (ala Joe Borchard...he's tearing up Fresno, I know, but believe me, he is a Quad-A player).

John Bowker, Nate Schierholtz, Travis Ishikawa and Emmanuel Burriss are those players still with potential (whether you want to believe it or not...I'm saying it).

Of course, who knows if these four will get many opportunities this year. As a matter of fact, chances are, with the roster as veteran-stocked as it is, they probably won't get much, if any opportunities for regular playing time this year unless some injuries happen.

Yet, in terms of next season, these four arbitration-eligible players in 2012 should have some opportunities to play come Spring Training and I'll give you reasons why for each player.

John Bowker, outfielder, 26 years old.
Major League Stats: .303 average, .863 OPS in 552 games.
Major League Stats: .238 average, .678 OPS in 183 games.

What can I say about John Bowker? It's hard really. After being sent down to Fresno to make room for Pat Burrell, his 2010 season has been a bit of a disappointment. He tore up the Pacific Coast League last year, posting a .342 average, a 1.047 OPS and also hit 21 home runs in 450 plate appearances with the Grizzlies. Furthermore, he got off to a resounding start in Spring Training, hitting .312 with six home runs in 77 AB, which led him to getting the starting right fielder's position on Opening Day over Nate Schierholtz.

Unfortunately, the 2010 regular season has been anything but kind to Bowker. In 90 plate appearances this year, Bowker posted a .207 average, a .609 OPS and a .262 wOBA (his projected wOBA prior to the season was .350 according CHONE projections).To make matters worse, he didn't seem to transition the plate patience he showed in Fresno in 2009 to the big league level these first few months of Major League play. Bowker's 0.26 BB/K ratio (compounded by a 28 percent strikeout rate) is a far cry from the 1.16 BB/K ratio he sported with the Grizzlies (though, to look at it optimistically, it is better than the 0.22 ratio he had in 2009 at the Major League level).

However, despite the poor start, there is hope for Bowker.

First off, look at what he's doing in Fresno right now. In 10 games and 46 plate appearances with the Grizzlies, Bowker has hit four home runs and posted a batting average of .390 and an OPS of 1.166. Bowker is hitting the ball hard and hitting the ball with confidence, something you couldn't say he was doing in the Majors this year.

It is possible to think that Bowker will develop the confidence he needs in Fresno and will transition that to the Majors the next time he is called up. Then again, Giants fans thought that would happen this year (but Giants fans also thought he would get more of a chance as well).

Second, if you look at Bowker's plate discipline numbers, he has shown improvement, which is comforting. He has swung at less pitches outside the strike zone (22.5 percent, which is down 25.9 percent in 2009), and he is making better contact as well (his contact rate is up from 72.3 percent in 2009 to 78.7 percent this year).

The big problem for Bowker in the Majors? He is hitting more groundballs and he has struggled to find holes. His GB/FB ratio is abnormally high at 1.63 (he was under one the past two years in the Majors) and his BABIP is low at .241.

That being said, the numbers aren't as bad as they look. Despite only having a flyball rate of 31.1 percent this year, his HR/FB percentage is 15.8 percent (the highest it's been since he's been in the Majors). Additionally, his line drive percentage sits at 18 percent, an improvement from 2009 when it was 14 percent.

Prediction for Bowker in 2011

The outfield situation is very touchy for next year. Aubrey Huff will be a free agent, but considering how well he has played this year, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Brian Sabean re-up him for another year, which would hurt Bowker's chances of playing. Second, Thomas Neal, Roger Kieschnick and Darren Ford waiting on the horizon don't make things easier, especially considering how much is invested in them. Bowker certainly has the opportunity to break out as expected, especially if he can continue to gain confidence at the plate, which is what he needs after such a horrid start this year. However, if he can't produce at the Major League level soon, it won't be surprising to see the Giants cut him loose ala Fred Lewis-style.

Nate Schierholtz, outfielder, 26 years old.
Minor League Stats: .308 average, .871 OPS in 627 games.
Major League Stats: .281 average, .732 OPS in 230 games.

I admit, it has take me a while to come to terms with Schierholtz. I love him defensively and his numbers certainly back him up (career 20.9 UZR). Prior to 2010 though, I wasn't too big a fan of him offensively. He was an extremely free-swinger (he had O-Swing percentages of 34.7 and 34.9 percent in 2008 and 2009) and I didn't think he had the power (.133 ISO in 2009) to back up his lack of plate patience (0.28 BB/K ratio in 2009).

In 2010 though, Schierholtz has changed himself offensively. The power still isn't there (.107 ISO this year), but he has become much more disciplined at the plate. His O-Swing currently sits at 29.1 percent, not exactly great, but a great improvement considering it was never under 34 percent in his time in the Majors.

What sticks out the most for Schierholtz is his BB/K ratio and BB percentage, which have greatly improved. His BB/K ratio is currently 0.76 and his BB percentage is 9.4 percent. How has he improved these percentages from 2009? In addition to swinging less outside the strike zone, he has made better contact at the plate as well. In 2009, he only made contact 77.7 percent of the time. In 2010? That percentage is 84.6 percent, four points above the league average.

Now, Schierholtz doesn't hit the ball in the air, which is a bit deflating considering his ability to make contact. His GB/FB ratio sits at 1.61 this year and his line drive percentage is 18.1 percent. The line drive percentage is disappointing considering the past two years it was above 20 percent.

And, not only has Schierholtz dropped in terms of hitting flyballs this year (his FB rate sits at 31.4 percent), but he hasn't been very effective in making those flyballs count. His HR/FB percentage is three percent.

To put that HR/FB percentage in perspective, only Freddy Sanchez (who doesn't have a homer this year) has a lower HR/FB ratio of Giants hitters with 50 or more plate appearances.

Prediction for Schierholtz in 2011

Schierholtz deserves regular playing time and he should get it in 2011. With Mark Derosa's health a serious question, Schierholtz could have a shot to finally capture the job that probably should have been his this year. After all, he has done nothing to merit losing his job. His offensive numbers aren't eye-popping, but they aren't detrimental either (his wRC+ is 98, only two points below league average). However, when you add it along with his defensive value, it makes sense why Schierholtz has a WAR of 1.1 this year (which accumulates to $4.2 million dollars according to Fangraphs).

Travis Ishikawa, first baseman, 26 years old.
Minor League stats: .261 average, .808 OPS in 707 games.
Major League stats: .264 average, .739 OPS in 204 games.

Ishikawa has been up and down in his tenure with the Giants. Like Schierholtz, he has earned his keep on the Giants roster because of his defensive value. Last year, he led all defenders on the Giants with a 10.2 UZR. Furthermore, he also pelted nine home runs, which gave him a HR/FB percentage of 10.2 in 2009.

Unfortunately, he has tended to frustrate Giants fans more often than not the past three years as a Giant. Despite having a walk percentage of 8.7 and 8.3 percent in 2008 and 2009, he only had BB/K ratios of 0.33 and 0.34, respectively. Furthermore, his wOBA in 2009 (.313) was disappointing considering the promise he showed in 2008 with the Giants (when his wOBA was .337) and in Fresno (his wOBA was .445 with the Grizzlies in 2008).

Like many Giants hitters, Ishikawa swings a lot outside the strike zone (he has a career O-swing percentage of 27.9 percent). Unlike some Giants free-swingers, Ishikawa doesn't make contact enough to justify it. His career contact rate is 73.1 percent (the league average is usually around 80 percent).

This year, Ishikawa has shown improvement. His BB/K ratio is up to 0.50 and he has showed some power (.844 OPS; .367 wOBA) in his 32 plate appearances.

But as a Giants fan you have to realize that it's only 32 plate appearances. That is way too small a sample to come to any realistic projection. And the worst part? He probably won't get many more plate appearances anytime soon.

Prediction for Ishikawa in 2011

Out of the four guys listed, the future looks the most bleak for Ishikawa. He's great defensively, but he seems to be behind a lot of guys on this Giants roster. Barring an injury to Huff and someone else, Ishikawa is regulated to backup duty because he is out of minor league options. I wouldn't be surprised to see him designated for assignment either this year or next season, which is a shame because he certainly wasn't too bad in 2009.

Emmanuel Burriss, second base/shortstop, 26 years old.
Minor League Stats: .282 average, .679 OPS in 228 games.
Major League Stats: .262 average, .629 OPS in 156 games.

Burriss is probably the biggest wild card of the four. He is very interesting because of his situation alone.

In 2008, he was pretty much rushed to the big leagues because a.) Omar Vizquel was fighting age and ineffectiveness and b.) Brian Bocock was only other shortstop in their organization. So, Burriss was called up in 2008 despite being 23 years old and only having played as high as Advanced Single-A.

Surprisingly, Burriss didn't do too badly. In 95 games in 2008, Burriss tole 13 bases and hit .283 with an OBP of .357 and a BB/K ratio of 0.96. While he didn't show much power (.046 ISO) and his average was a little deceptive of his offensive success (.316 wOBA and 91 wRC+), the start in 2008 definitely was a step in the right direction for the Giants' 2006 first round draft pick.

Unfortunately, in 2009, despite a stellar spring training that earned him the starting second baseman position over Kevin Frandsen, Burriss struggled. While he still stole a decent amount of bases (11), many of his other offensive statistics fell drastically from 2008, including average (.238), OBP (.292), BB/K ratio (0.41), wOBA (.258) and wRC+ (52). Also, Burriss was inconsistent defensively, as evidenced by his UZR numbers in 2009 (minus-3.9 UZR/150 in 2009 at second base).

Since he was demoted to Fresno in 2009, not only has Burriss struggled to regain his 2008 form, but he also struggled with injury. He injured his foot shortly after being called down to the Grizzlies and missed most of the remainder of the 2009 season. When he arrived in Spring Training, he injured his foot early and was immediately put on the disabled list to start the season.

Though he is still on the disabled list, Burriss is already back in action, playing a few rehab games in San Jose before being called up to Fresno on June 14th.

Even if Burriss is able to come back healthy, this year may be a wash for him. The infield is already crowded with Juan Uribe, Freddy Sanchez, Edgar Renteria Matt Downs, and Ryan Rohlinger all vying for spots and playing time. In all likelihood, Burriss will probably spend the remainder of the year in Fresno, which isn't necessarily a bad thing considering he's only played in 31 games above Advanced Single-A prior to this season.

That being said, can Burriss still contribute? He will certainly have an opportunity next year. Renteria and Uribe will be free agents next season, so the starting shortstop position will definitely be up for grabs if those two aren't re-signed (though Uribe could be re-signed). And, if he can have a solid season in the Pacific Coast League, he may be able to convince the Giants brass that 2009 was a sophomore slump rather than an indicator of things to come.

Burriss definitely has a lot to offer. He certainly is fast (24 stolen bases at the Major League level) and has defensive potential (he had a 15.7 UZR/150 in 2008 at second base). Furthermore, he can make contact really well at the plate, as evidenced by his career 87.5 percent contact rate.

Unfortunately, Burriss' defensive inconsistencies (his career UZR/150 at shortstop is minus-17.7) as well as his questionable plate discipline in 2009 (28.5 O-Swing percentage) and lack of power in the Majors (career 0.38 ISO) and minors (career 0.65 ISO) don't exactly make Giants fans feel confident that he can be a long-lasting solution at the Major League level. Also, with higher end infield prospects Brandon Crawford, Conor Gillaspie, Nick Noonan, and Ehire Adrianza waiting on the horizon, Burriss may not get long to show what he can offer at a starting infielder position.

Prediction for Burriss in 2011

If Burriss is healthy (and that's a big "if"), then it isn't impossible to think that he can nab the starting shortstop position if Renteria and Uribe leave town. The potential is there, and I think Burriss is enough of a fan favorite that Giants fans could rally behind. His ability to make contact is promising, and with the relative lack of speed on this roster, Burriss offers a much needed quality.

Of course, Burriss needs to polish up his game on both ends. He has the ability to be a very good defensive player, but it seems, according to UZR, that he may be a tad overrated. Also, while he has an ability to make contact consistently, swinging outside the strike zone as much as he did last season certainly isn't going to help his cause.

He could go any way, and that's what makes him so interesting, and so hard to predict. Let's hope Burriss can improve in Fresno this year, and in 2011, be the player Giants fans and management hoped he would develop into after he made a splash in 2008.

Flash In the Pan or Potential Rebound? A Look at Pat Burrell with the Giants

2010-06-15T14:36:00.000-07:00

After being called up on June 6th from Fresno (which sent down John Bowker to the Grizzlies in the process), Pat Burrell has made quite the splash in the Bay Area.

In 10 games and 31 plate appearances so far, Burrell is hitting .407 with two home runs, five RBI and has a wOBA of .497 and a wRAA of 4.3. That is a vast improvement from his tenure in Tampa this season, where he hit only two home runs and posted a batting average of .202 and a wOBA of .283 in 96 plate appearances.

However, how real is this start from Burrell? Is it real like Brad Penny's arrival last season with the Giants? Or is Burrell most likely going to hit a skid, and fall back to the numbers he put up in 146 games with the Rays? And, what does Burrell in the lineup mean for the rest of this Giants roster?

First off, I'm really not sure about Burrell's start. First off, you have to look at the BB and K numbers in Tampa and in San Francisco this season.

Tampa: 10.4 percent (BB percentage), 33.3 percent (K percentage), 0.36 (BB/K ratio) in 96 plate appearances.

San Francisco: 9.7 percent (BB percentage), 14.8 percent (K percentage), 0.75 (BB/K ratio) in 31 plate appearances.

Burrell's career strikeout percentage is 28.2 percent, so for Giants fans to think the 14.8 percent strikeout percentage is going to hover around that number for this rest of the season is foolish thinking. That being said, he does have a 0.60 career BB/K ratio, and his 9.7 percent BB percentage is comforting. Giants fans should definitely get used to seeing Burrell strikeout a little more often as he gets more playing time (another indicator: his 88.9 percent contact rate so far; Burrell has a career contact rate of 77.9), but if he can keep his walk percentage high (which he even did in Tampa), he is totally capable of putting up respectable BB/K numbers, which would make him tolerable in the lineup at the very least.

Some other numbers that are interesting to look in terms of Burrell's arrival to San Francisco are his batted ball numbers. Burrell has a 20.8 percent line drive percentage and a 28.6 percent HR/FB ratio. To put those percentages in perspective, Burrell had sub-20 line drive rates in Tampa (17.3 percent in 2009 and 15.8 percent in 2010) and sub-10 HR/FB rates as well (9.8 percent last year, 7.4 percent this year in Tampa).

The line drive percentage is a good indicator of things to come, since it is close to his career average which is 20.7 percent. As for the HR/FB ratio, it's definitely impossible in terms of being sustained, but I do believe he can at the very least, post a HR/FB ratio over 10 percent for the remainder of the season with the Giants. After all, he never had a HR/FB ratio under 12.6 percent prior to his arrival in Tampa, and his career HR/FB percentage is 16 percent. Granted, you have to remember that was in Philadelphia at a hitter-friendly ballpark, but even so, his career HR/FB numbers prior to Tampa are impressive regardless of team and ballpark.

Of course, while I'm happy with Burrell's start, I'm not totally on the Bandwagon yet. Since coming to San Francisco, the Giants have played Burrell in games against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Oakland, and Baltimore. With the exception of the Reds all those teams are pretty poor (only the Reds have a winning record entering today), and with the exception of Oakland, the pitching staffs are mediocre (only the A's ranked higher than 22nd in MLB in terms of team ERA).

I am interested to see how Burrell will perform against the tougher pitching staffs in the NL West (San Diego, Colorado and Los Angeles rank 1st, 5th and 14th respectively in terms of team ERA). It's one thing for Burrell to feast on the Orioles and Reds. However, if Burrell can come up big against the NL West, than he certainly will prove that he was a worthwhile pickup.

In terms of Burrell's effect on the roster, it may not be as bad as it seems. After tweaking his wrist in a rehab game in Fresno, it looks like Mark Derosa may require surgery and may be done for the season. Furthermore, the Giants may be more apt to bench the struggling Aaron Rowand more often, which will give more center field opportunities to Andres Torres, who will definitely make up for Burrell's defensive shortcomings (career minus-44.6 UZR in the outfield for Burrell).

Granted, the increase in playing time does hurt a few players. John Bowker is probably destined for Fresno the rest of the season (though if he can regain his confidence, he may be able to bounce back...he's off to a good start so far) and Nate Schierholtz may be regulated to the bench duty he received last year, which is unfortunate because Schierholtz is good defensively (career 20.9 UZR) and is much better at the plate this year in comparison to last season (.301 wOBA last year; .323 wOBA this season).

What could be the saving grace for Schierholtz? The Giants designate Bengie Molina for assignment, put Buster Posey behind the plate, move Aubrey Huff back to his natural position of first base, and put Torres in Center and Schierholtz in right, with Burrell in left, which won't be so bad because the Giants will have two plus defenders in left and right (Torres and Schierholtz's combined OF UZR this season is 16.2). The Giants will have a solid defense, without sacrificing any of the offense.

Pat "The Bat" (God I hate that nickname) is hitting well so far in San Francisco, and while I don't think he'll put up the incredible numbers he put up from 2005-2008, I think he can provide similar production to Huff at the very least. Additionally, Burrell could make this lineup work if manager Bruce Bochy can tool this lineup the right way (Which would involve Torres and Nate in, and Molina and Rowand out).

Let's hope as Giants fans Bruce Bochy can realize that and make it happen. For the first time since Barry Bonds left, the Giants offense might actually have the opportunity to be pretty decent.

Three Up, Three Down: A Look at Cain and Lincecum's Last Few Starts

2010-06-03T12:45:00.000-07:00

Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are the two anchors of the Giants starting rotation (sorry Barry Zito!) and it makes sense why. Both are young (Lincecum is going to turn 26 years old in June; Cain is 25 years old), both have incredible credentials (Lincecum is a two-time All-Star and Cy Young winner; Cain was an All-Star last season) and both have solid stuff.

Yet it's been a different story for the two pitchers lately. Lincecum has been struggling on the mound, while Cain is excelling. You can point out the traditional numbers. Lincecum has pitched 15.1 IP and is 0-2 and has allowed 14 ER in his last three starts against Arizona, Washington and Colorado. Cain has pitched 25 IP and is 2-1 with two complete games and only allowed one ER in his last three starts.

When you look at the numbers, it's hard to see which Giants pitcher won the last two Cy Young awards.

So, what is up? Why is Lincecum performing so poorly and why is Cain suddenly looking like a Cy Young candidate again? (Though it's kind of a losing battle when your competition is Ubaldo Jimenez and Roy Halladay.)

I can point to three possible reasons:

1.) Walks (Increase for Lincecum; drop for Cain).
2.) Pitch counts (Lincecum throwing too many pitches; Cain pacing himself well).
3.) Luck (Cain's been getting lucky; Lincecum hasn't).

In terms of the first point, Lincecum's walk totals have been ridiculous the past three games. He has given up five walks in EACH of his past four starts (a total of 20 BB). Before the Houston game on May 15? Lincecum had only allowed 10 walks in his seven previous starts COMBINED.

Cain on the other hand, has been the polar opposite. Cain has only allowed four walks total in his past three starts (which explains why he is 2-1, and should be 3-0 had his offense showed up against Oakland).

What has been the reason for Lincecum's tremendous number of free passes in comparison to Cain? Cain has been better throwing strikes the past few starts, while Lincecum simply can't find the strike zone.

In his past three starts, Cain has thrown 63, 68 and 60.5 percent of his pitches for strikes. As for Lincecum? In his last few appearances, he has only thrown 59, 58 and 60.3 percent of his pitches for strikes.

Look at the Pitch F/X statistics from Brooks Baseball for Lincecum and Cain in their last starts alone:

Lincecum against Colorado on May 31.

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %	Linear Weights	Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	90.94	93.8	0.30	8.92	48	28 / 58.33%	0 / 0.00%	0.9153	0.410
CH (Changeup)	83.70	85.7	-2.65	2.98	32	25 / 78.13%	8 / 25.00%	-0.2762	0.443
CU (Curveball)	78.19	81.1	2.25	-6.62	27	12 / 44.44%	3 / 11.11%	-0.0760	0.480
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	92.65	97.7	-6.95	8.32	13	10 / 76.92%	1 / 7.69%	-0.4363	0.404
Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate. Pitch Type LWTS correspond to how many runs were likely to score on a particular pitch based on average run expectancy when each pitch was thrown and what happened as a result. Negative scores indicate more effective pitches. Time to Plate is the time, in seconds, that it takes an average pitch of this type to reach the plate. This is strongly correlated with velocity, but also factors in movement.

Cain against Colorado on June 2.

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %	Linear Weights	Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	90.96	93.1	-4.96	10.40	67	40 / 59.70%	5 / 7.46%	-0.2139	0.413
CH (Changeup)	84.67	90.6	-7.53	3.76	27	17 / 62.96%	5 / 18.52%	-1.5402	0.444
SL (Slider)	85.40	85.4	2.05	1.36	1	0 / 0.00%	0 / 0.00%	0.0421	0.435
CU (Curveball)	76.39	82.7	3.59	-5.12	16	10 / 62.50%	1 / 6.25%	-1.3495	0.492
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	92.20	92.9	-6.96	7.78	2	1 / 50.00%	0 / 0.00%	-0.0183	0.403
Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate. Pitch Type LWTS correspond to how many runs were likely to score on a particular pitch based on average run expectancy when each pitch was thrown and what happened as a result. Negative scores indicate more effective pitches. Time to Plate is the time, in seconds, that it takes an average pitch of this type to reach the plate. This is strongly correlated with velocity, but also factors in movement.

Judging by the graphs, Cain was extremely efficient with his fastball, slider and curve balls, throwing the latter two pitches for strikes over 60 percent of the time. As for Lincecum, he was efficient with his two seam fastball (he threw it 76 percent of the time for strikes) as well as his changeup. However, you couldn't say the same out of his curveball (only a 44.4 percent strike percentage).

To make matters worse, Lincecum didn't make a lot of Rockies hitters whiff with his pitches, especially the fastball. Sure, his changeup was effective in terms of making batters whiff, but his changeup has always been that valuable this season (According to Fangraphs, it is valued at 3.97 runs above average per 100 fastballs). His fastballs though? He threw 38 total fastballs (four and two seamers combined) and only got Rockies hitters to whiff once.

How did Cain do with his fastballs? Out of the 41 fastballs he threw, he got Rockies hittes to whiff five times. That's not exactly mindblowing, but it certainly is better than Lincecum.

Hence, Lincecum's stuff just isn't blowing hitters away, and that may be reason why Lincecum is being more nitpicky, trying to paint the corners when he really should be just throwing, which I believe is what Cain is doing when you look at his Pitch F/X (Cain isn't K'ing guys, but he's throwing strikes, which is important). Unfortunately, this has only produced more balls for Lincecum, and more walks as a result.

It has also caused Lincecum to throw more pitches per inning.

Here is a look at Lincecum and Cain's pitch by innings in their last starts:

Lincecum

Inning-by-Inning Pitch Totals
Inning	Pitches in Inning	Strikes in Inning	Strike% in Inning	Cumulative Total Pitches	Pitch LWTS in Inning
1	11	8	72.73	11	-0.834
2	35	21	60.00	46	0.467
3	14	10	71.43	60	-0.862
4	19	10	52.63	79	0.505
5	22	14	63.64	101	0.592
6	19	12	63.16	120	0.258

Cain

Inning-by-Inning Pitch Totals
Inning	Pitches in Inning	Strikes in Inning	Strike% in Inning	Cumulative Total Pitches	Pitch LWTS in Inning
1	10	6	60.00	10	-0.834
2	20	13	65.00	30	-0.350
3	17	8	47.06	47	-0.532
4	11	6	54.55	58	0.611
5	21	13	61.90	79	-0.034
6	7	5	71.43	86	-0.561
7	13	7	53.85	99	-0.532
8	14	10	71.43	113	-0.848

Because of Lincecum's inability to throw strikes, the pitch counts have been massive in certain innings. He threw 19 or more pitches in four of the six innings pitched on Memorial Day (including a Jonathan Sanchez-esque 35 pitches in the second). Cain has been much more efficient, for he only threw 19 or more pitches in two of the eight innings he pitched in last night's win.

Thus, the more efficient pitching style of Cain in the past few starts (to compare, Lincecum went 5.2 IP and threw 121 pitches; Cain went 8 IP and threw 113 pitches) has been more effective for Cain and the Giants in general (the Giants are 2-1 in his last three starts; the Giants are 0-3 in Lincecum's last three starts).

That being said, not all hope should be lost on Lincecum, and Cain shouldn't be raised too quickly as the Giants ace this season. Yes, Lincecum isn't blowing guys away with his fastball. Yes, Lincecum is throwing too many pitches. Yes, Lincecum is having trouble with his command and finding strikes.

However, Lincecum hasn't been getting lucky (in comparison to Cain, who has).

For starters, the numbers that really jump out with Lincecum are his groundball and flyball numbers. You think, considering he has allowed 14 ER, Lincecum would be allowing a lot of big flies, right?

Actually, that hasn't been the case. Lincecum has induced 23 groundballs and 15 flyballs in his past three starts. He has also allowed nine line drives in the last few starts as well.

What's more interesting though is the fact that over the past three starts, his flyballs and line drives allowed have gone down, and the groundballs have gone up. (For example: he induced 14 groundballs and allowed only four flyballs and one line drive in his last outing.)

Despite that improvement, Lincecum just hasn't gotten lucky. He has allowed 17 hits, which gives him a BABIP of .361 in his last three starts. Lincecum is not going to carry a BABIP that high for the rest of the season, especially considering his career BABIP (.302) hovers around the league average (.300 give or take a couple of points each year).

As for Cain, he has allowed 34 flyballs, 20 groundballs and 10 line drives in his previous three starts. How many hits has Cain given up? Only 10, which gives him a BABIP of .156 in those starts. Now, pitchers are going to have good stretches, but to have that low a BABIP and to only average six strikeouts a game during that three game span? Well...you have to credit that more to luck than anything else (but considering Cain's history, he deserves all the luck he can get).

So Cain is up, Lincecum is down. The important thing to remember? They both are fine. Sure, Lincecum's stuff isn't dominant (especially his fastball), but that was the case in the beginning of the season, when he was dealing, as well. The only difference is that unlike in April, Lincecum is overpitching and isn't throwing strikes. The strikes will come, and eventually, so will the efficient innings, and considering Lincecum's strikeout ability (he still has a 10.42 K/9 this year), Lincecum will look like his Cy Young form again.

As for Cain, he's looking solid and his efficiency is comforting, especially considering that has been an issue with some Giants starting pitchers this year (Lincecum, Sanchez especially; Zito not so much). However, Cain isn't a dramatically better pitcher than Lincecum, even during this three game stretch. Cain has just been better at throwing strikes and is getting lucky. Just as Lincecum is bound to turn it around and look closer to his career form, the same should be expected of Cain: he'll get less lucky, regress and return back to career form (though Cain's career form still is pretty good).

How Real Is Andres Torres' 2010 Season?

2010-06-02T10:08:00.000-07:00

If there is one player on this Giants roster that is hard to project for the rest of the season, it has to be Andres Torres.

Based on statistical data, Torres' 2010 is simply unbelievable considering his history.

Here is Torres' line before he came to San Francisco in 2009:

.210 batting average, .258 OBP, .276 slugging, .534 OPS, .219 wOBA in 89 games between Detroit and Texas from 2002-2005.

Here is what he has done since coming to the Bay Area:

.281 average, .363 OBP, .513 slugging, .877 OPS, .385 wOBA in 118 games with the Giants from 2009-2010.

That's an incredible jump, especially in the categories of OBP (where he jumped 105 points), wOBA (166 points) and slugging (237 points). Basically, Torres turned himself from free hacking, slap hitter (think a poor man's Juan Pierre) to a patient, speedy leadoff hitter with serious pop (think Brady Anderson).

Now, who is the real Torres? Is Torres going to keep up this hitting prowess for the remainder of the 2010 season? Or is he going to fall back to his career numbers prior to his arrival in San Francisco?

Well, Giants fans should believe in the latter and I'll point to you a reason why:

Torres is a different player from his Tiger and Ranger days, and his minor league numbers in 2007 and 2008 and improvement from 2009 to 2010 show that.

Since 2005, Torres pretty much bounced around in Triple-A. He played for four Triple-A clubs from 2005-2009: Oklahoma (Texas), Rochester (Minnesota), Iowa (Chicago), Toledo (Detroit), and Fresno (San Francisco). (He also played for a Double-A club, the Erie Seawolves, in 2007.)

In 2005 and 2006, Torres seemed to be the same player he was in Detroit and Texas (e.g. a slap hitter without much plate patience). He posted a a .743 OPS in 15 games with Oklahoma in 2005 and a .687 OPS (and .317 wOBA) in 118 games with Rochester the following the season.

However, starting in 2007, Torres' numbers took a huge spike...in a good way.

Starting in Double-A Erie, the Tigers' Double-A club, Torres posted solid numbers in 85 games. His OPS improved to .844 in Double-A, his OBP jumped to .372, and he hit 11 triples and six home runs (he had only 11 triples and home runs combined the previous season in Rochester).

Later in the year, Torres was promoted to Toledo, the Tigers' Triple-A club. He continued to show the power he showed in Double-A in the International League. While his OBP went down (to .348), his slugging went up (from .472 in Double-A to .506 in Triple-A) as did his OPS (from .844 to .854). What was the reason for the average jumps? In 42 games, Torres hit nine triples and four home runs.

Now, the OBP drop in Toledo was to be expected. After making progress in drawing walks (Torres has a 0.56 and 0.58 BB/K ratios in 2006 in Rochester and 2007 in Toledo, which included walk rates over 10 percent), he took a step back in Toledo. His BB/K ratio hovered around 0.28, and his walk percentage dropped to 5.8 percent in Triple-A (almost a five point drop from Double-A).

However, the following season in Iowa, Torres brought back his BB/K numbers up to the numbers he put up in Rochester and Erie. In 2008, he finished the year with a 0.53 BB/K ratio (which included an 11.5 percent BB/9). The better part though about his 2008 season? His power didn't drop from Toledo despite the better plate discipline.

With the Cubs, Torres posted a .892 OPS and a .397 wOBA. His wRC (runs created based on wOBA) was 86.7, 28 points higher than his previous high in Double-A in 2007, and in addition to hitting 10 triples, 11 home runs and scoring 91 runs, he also stole 29 bases on 33 attempts.

Granted, Torres put up these numbers as a 30 year old in Triple-A. As evidenced by Joe Borchard this year in Fresno, that doesn't necessarily translate into big league success.

Despite those odds being against him, Torres has succeeded at the Major League level with the Giants. Furthermore, he has shown progression from 2009 as well.

One of the reasons I was skeptical of Torres going into the 2010 season was because of his low BB/K ratio (0.36 in 2009), high O-Swing percentage (29.1 percent), low contact rate (72.3), and low GB/FB percentage (0.69) considering his speed (eight triples and six stolen bases in 170 plate appearances in 2009).

So far, he has improved on those numbers. While his contact rate (81.3 percent in 2010) and GB/FB ratio (0.93; but he's helped by a 26.2 percent line drive percentage) aren't anything special, they certainly are improvements from 2009. However, his main improvement has been in his O-Swing percentage (pitches swung outside the strike zone) and BB/K ratio. He cut down his O-Swing percentage to 23.2 percent and his BB/K ratio sits at 0.76.

Torres has the credentials of a true leadoff hitter in 2010, something you couldn't necessarily say out of him last year based on his stats.

Overall, Torres has been a surprise, and it will be predictable to see his stats regress over time. His BABIP is high at .343, and considering his GB/FB ratio, it is likely that it won't sustain at that level for the remainder of the season.

However, if you look at his overall statistics, Torres has made incredible progress as a Giant, and he should continue to make an impact in the leadoff spot. Now, I know Giants fans worry that he might fall back into the numbers of his Tiger days, but I think Giants fans shouldn't fret. Torres isn't the same player, and his minor league numbers from 2007 and 2008, and his improvement in plate discipline from 2009 to 2010 is proof that that this "San Francisco" Torres is different from the "Detroit" Torres.

Giants 2010 Draft Prospect Spotlight: Shortstops Christian Colon and Yordy Cabrera

2010-06-01T23:37:00.000-07:00

In the last Draft Prospect Spotlight, I looked at Austin Wilson, a tall lanky outfielder from Southern California. Though I like Wilson, at this point, Wilson may be a longshot for the Giants. Apparently, the kid is asking for a lot of money and apparently he seems quite committed in his desire to go to Stanford (which I can't blame him to be frank). These two factors have been such a warning sign that Andy Seiler of MLB Bonus Baby has Wilson dropping out of the first round all together in his latest mock draft.

So, it's about time to look at a couple of new prospects that the Giants could be taking with the No. 24 pick. MLB Bonus Baby and MLB Fantasy Prospects just released some new mock drafts, and both web sites have the Giants taking shortstops in their respective mocks.

However, they differ on the shortstops. Seiler has the Giants taking Christian Colon out of Cal State Fullerton, while Lawrence Duschenski of MLBFP has Yordy Cabrera out of Lakeland HS going at No. 24.

Both are talented shortstops and could have an impact at the Major League level for the Giants. Furthermore, infield depth is a concern in the Giants system. While the Giants have some hot shot prospects like Brandon Crawford, Nick Noonan, Conor Gillaspie, Brandon Belt and Ehire Adrianza, the talent level in the infield significantly drops off after that.

Who is the better prospect? Should the Giants go young or go with the guy with the proven pedigree at a major baseball power? Here is a look at the two players.

Christian Colon
Stats this year with CS-Fullerton: .347 average, .436 OBP, .606 OPS, 12 SB, 14 HR, 62 R, 58 RBI.

Colon has been an absolute stud this year for the Titans, adding a lot of power to his numbers this year. After hitting 12 gome runs combined his freshman and sophomore years, he has belted 14 home runs and driven in 58 RBI. Furthermore, his .606 slugging percentage is almost 80 points higher than his .529 slugging his sophomore year (which was already impressive for a shortstop).

Yet power isn't the only reason Giants fans should pay attention to Colon. He has a very meticulous plate approach, as evidenced by his 0.76, 1.00 and 1.88 BB/K ratio during his collegiate career. Colon makes great contact and is a tough out at the plate. Here is what Nick James of PnR Scouting said of Colon's swing:

"Colon begins with an open stance, using a small stride to get his momentum moving directly towards the ball. He keeps a short path to the ball with the very slightest of loops in his hands as he begins his swing. Colon shows excellent balance through contact and rotates his core well with a strong front leg. He finishes under control and is quick out of the box. This spring he has whipped the bat head a little better, and is producing some pop (though it is unclear if that will translate to wood against better pitching)."

Defensively, Colon is very athletic and can make plays. Apparently, Colon can play either second or shortstop, but according to James, "looks very comfortable" at shortstop. There are some concerns with Colon's defense though. Colon has made 13 errors this year and has a fielding percentage of .952. Not necessarily bad, but not necessarily outstanding either.

Colon isn't a big guy (six-foot, 180 pound frame) and there is some question about his upside. At 21 years of age by draft time, many scouts don't project his ceiling to be as high as many other shortstops in this draft. Furthermore, his huge power jump this year suggests more of a peak rather than a sign of things to come at the professional level.

That being said, despite the questions about his ceiling, Colon is an enticing prospect and the Giants could benefit from the addition of the Titans shortstop. While Crawford is looking good at Double-A, and Adrianza and Noonan have a lot of upside, Colon could be a one of those guys who could have an immediate (if limited) impact in the Giants organization within three to four years.

Yordy Cabrera
Stats in 16 games with Lakeland HS (Fla): .333 average, .500 OBP, .622 slugging, 21 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI.

Cabrera may be one of the most unpredictable guys in the draft. Cabrera was in the No. 17 range early in Seiler's mock drafts, but has consistently fallen over the course of the year.

You can see why the scouts like Cabrera. He's got incredible athleticism, and great size as evidenced by his six-foot, four-inch frame. Furthermore, Cabrera according to scouts has plenty of time to grow and fill out, which will only add to his power.

Speaking of power, Cabrera has a lot of it, even if it is raw. His slugging percentage was .625 his senior year at Lakeland HS, and he has shown flashes of big-fly potential in many competitive and elite showcases throughout his high school campaign.

Unlike Colon though, Cabrera is far from polished. Here is what MLB.com said in their scouting reports concerning Cabrera's defense:

"While his hands are fine, few think he'll be a shorstop long-term. He could move to third, and he's probably athletic enough to handle a move to a corner outfield spot."

If that's not enough, check out what they said about Cabrera's range:

"He has below-average range and his footwork is not great at shortstop."

As you can see, not many scouts are optimistic that Cabrera can play shortstop at the big league level. Granted, that's not a bad thing. Cabrera, who also moonlights as a pitcher in high school, has great arm strength, so a move to the outfield is entirely plausible, especially considering his athleticism and size. That being said, Cabrera's plate discipline and maturity may be a bit of a question, but that's usually a question for most high school players in the draft.

Despite the negatives, Cabrera is a toolsy player with incredible potential. His athleticism and upside alone is worth a draft pick. If Cabrera can adjust to the professional level, and find a position that will make the most of his defensive abilities, then I think it's possible that the Giants could find a diamond in the rough with this kid.

Who is the better draft pick?

Colon without a doubt is the more polished player, which explains why he went as high as No. 2 in some mock drafts. However, there is something about Cabrera that is special. In my mind, Cabrera has Hanley Ramirez potential, at least offensively. He may not be a great defensive player, but without a doubt, his athleticism will carry him somewhere on the field, be it at third base or in the outfield.

Colon will be a great pick and could have a solid career in the Majors. (Think Mike Aviles perhaps?) But Cabrera has "superstar" potential, and if he's available, the Giants simply can't pass on him.

What Pat Burrell's Signing Means to the Giants Lineup

2010-05-31T01:02:00.000-07:00

I can understand the logic behind Giants management giving Pat Burrell a minor league contract. The Giants need offense (though that certainly hasn't been the case the last two games; though you have to remember it was against Arizona). He's a free agent. He comes at little cost. He's only two seasons removed from a monster season in Philadelphia (though "monster season in Philadelphia" should always be taken with a grain of salt). And he's a Bay Area kid. What more would you want, right? It's win-win on paper.

And yet, you can't help but feel nauseated by this latest deal. In all honesty, out of all of Brian Sabean's moves this season, this one makes the least sense.

Mark Derosa "allegedly" is due back in a week. Edgar Renteria is due back in a couple. So, the Giants have this dilemma going:

Derosa, Aubrey Huff, Aaron Rowand, John Bowker, Buster Posey, Nate Schierholtz, Travis Ishikawa, and Andres Torres are all going to be fighting for playing time at first base and in the outfield.

Who's Burrell going to replace?

First off, I'm guessing Bowker is the first odd man out. I can get that, especially considering he has an option. Ishikawa is probably another guy out, most likely going to be designated for assignment soon. At the very least, the Giants could get some return. His numbers look good after two big pinch hits (In 22 at-bats, he has a .273 average, a .360 OBP and a .951 OPS) and he has tremendous defensive value (career 10.3 UZR), so it's totally possible that the Giants could get something of value for him. (A low-end prospect or cash perhaps?)

Even with those two guys out of the picture though, the Giants still have to deal with seven players (including Burrell) vying for two spots.

You can't take out Torres because Torres is the best Giants leadoff hitter since Kenny Lofton in 2002 (I know...it's been that long folks). You can't take out Huff because Huff's approach has been very refreshing (high OBP, 0.95 BB/K ratio), even if it's not "Classic Huff" (1.11 GB/FB ratio, 8.8 HR/FB percentage). The Giants shouldn't take out Schierholtz because he's one of the Giants' best defensive outfielders (career 19.4 UZR), and he has been a spark at the plate this year in terms of plate patience (0.77 BB/K ratio), even if the power hasn't come around as expected (.405 slugging, 3.3 HR/FB percentage).

And lastly, the Giants shouldn't take out Posey, mainly because he has six hits in two games and needs more playing time to prove he is a Giants franchise player and worth the $6.25 million signing bonus he signed in 2008.

The most logical thing to do in order to make room for Burrell would be to bench Derosa (who doesn't seem a 100 percent anyway after wrist surgery) and Rowand (who has been tremendously ineffective this year). However, what makes that scenario tough is their contracts. Derosa and Rowand are due $19.6 million dollars this season. Brian Sabean would look awfully foolish with those two players on the bench considering how much cash he threw at them in the 2008 and 2010 offseasons.

Now, I know some people will think Burrell might just be a platoon player, maybe a pinch hitter ala Jim Thome in Los Angeles last season (Bobby Evans mentioned that on the Giants pregame show with Mycheal Urban on Saturday). I don't see that. Burrell had a choice between San Diego and San Francisco and I don't think he signed with the Giants to sit the bench, and I don't think Sabean signed him to pinch hit either. Burrell may or may not finish the season with the Giants, but Burrell's a big-name with a big pedigree. When he gets called up, he will play, and play regularly.

Because Burrell is a detriment to the Giants defensively (career minus-44.6 UZR in LF), the Giants would need to maximize their defense in order to shadow Burrell's inadequacies with the glove. Here would be the best lineup should Burrell be starting:

Torres-CF
Sanchez-2B
Sandoval-3B
Huff-1B
Uribe-SS
Posey-C
Burrell-LF
Schierholtz-RF
Starting pitcher

I definitely think this lineup could be effective. Torres and Schierholtz can cover massive ground in center and right, so that puts less pressure on Burrell. Furthermore, Burrell is put in a spot in the lineup currently manned by Rowand, and I don't think Burrell could be any worse offensively.

There are problems of course with my proposed lineup:

1.) It is highly unlikely that Posey will ever catch for Molina (because Bengie is "so good" at calling games, apparently).
2.) Uribe will get shafted when Renteria comes back healthy.
3.) Derosa needs to be in the lineup (because he's a "vet" and he is being paid to play).

So, the chances of my lineup actually happening I would think would be maybe 10 percent (and even that is generous). What most likely would happen is that Burrell would rotate with Derosa, with Torres in right and Nate on the bench. Not only is this going to hurt the Giants defensively, but overall, the lineup will suffer and somebody effective is not going to get at-bats (be it Schierholtz or Posey), which in the end, is going to cost the Giants wins.

The best scenario, of course, for the Giants would have been to lay off Burrell in the first place. Yet leave it to Giants management to sign a "big name" to confuse Bruce Bochy. I hate to be pessimistic, but in the end, Burrell's acquisition will cost the Giants some games.

Posey Diary: A Recap of Buster Posey's 2010 Debut With the Giants

2010-05-30T00:23:00.000-07:00

Sometimes you just get lucky. In 1995, I was able to see Tino Martinez hit the game winning home run for the Seattle Mariners at the Kingdome off Dennis Eckersley in the bottom of the ninth. In 2005, I saw Adam Morrison bank in the game winning shot against Oklahoma State in Seattle.

You don't really anticipate great moments. They just happen.

Tonight was one of those moments.

When my Dad got tickets to tonight's game a few days ago, he didn't know Buster Posey was going to make his debut against the Diamondbacks on May 29th. I didn't know either. Heck, nobody except Brian Sabean and his management team knew really.

Nonetheless, Posey was making his debut and my Mom, Dad and I were lucky to see it.

Here is a breakdown of Posey's debut, "diary" style.

Lineup announcements

I like the lineup announcements at AT&T Park for some reason. They always have cool music. Juan Uribe always has a "money" look on his face when he turns to the camera. Bruce Bochy always looks awkward. And this year, they had these special effects where it looked like some kind of "techno" thing (more on this later).

Anyways, the lineup announcements went as usual. With the big guys (e.g. Pablo Sandoval and Uribe) getting the big cheers and the other (e.g. Aaron Rowand and Eli Whiteside) getting slightly better than golf clap support.

When Posey's name was announced in the sixth spot, however, the crowd roared. Last year, I attended Ryan Garko's first game as a Giant (not exactly witnessing greatness there), and he didn't get close to the response Posey received. You knew it was going to be a special day judging by the crowd's response to Posey. Even a guy who had been subdued thirty minutes before the game, seemingly drained from having to chaperon his daughter and their two friends, went ballistic when Posey was announced.

Top of the first inning, first batter

Kelly Johnson hits a bullet down the first base line. Posey makes a dive, but he's too off the line to make a play. You can hear some worry in the crowd after the play, as if everyone is thinking "Oh crap, maybe putting Buster at first wasn't the best idea." Thankfully, nothing comes out of it, as Jonathan Sanchez pitches his characteristic "20- plus pitch, but without any damage" inning.

Bottom of the first, Posey's first at-bat

There are runners on first and second when Posey gets up to the plate. The whole place gives him a huge standing ovation. Seriously, I don't think I have seen any Giant this young have this much anticipation. Sure, Lincecum was hyped, but he looked good down the stretch in 2007, so you knew he was going to bring good things in 2008. Pablo Sandoval was a relative surprise, so we didn't have the anticipation time. Posey blows this out of the water. He's probably the third most exciting player to Giants fans behind Lincecum and Sandoval. And yes, he hasn't taken an at-bat this year until today.

Posey works the count to 1-1, looking calm and collected at the plate. On the next pitch, he stays behind the ball and laces a line drive single up the middle. Sanchez scores from second and the crowd goes ballistic. You couldn't have asked for more from Posey in his first at-bat this year. Patient, makes good contact, easy swing, and drives in a run. Can't say we've seen that a lot from other Giants hitters this year (cough...Bengie Molina...cough).

(Notice I have to say this year after everything; it's funny, because it feels like a Major League debut when it really isn't considering he had a wee bit of playing time last September. I am also the 100th person to make this observation.)

Bottom of the third, Posey's second at-bat

It's "kid announces the lineup" inning, and he does a good job for the first couple of batters. Nails the "UUUURIBBE" and everything. However, Uribe knocks in a home run and it throws the kid in a loop and he isn't able to announce Posey's name, which ruins the moment of his second at-bat. Ironically, the only time they don't announce his name at the plate, Posey flies out to right.

Surprisingly, it is one of the most exciting pop ups all day. Considering the hype after his first hit, along with the Uribe home run on the previous at-bat, the crowd is ready to explode. As soon as the ball in the air, people get up immediately thinking it has a shot of going out. Whiteside hits that ball and people are thinking about heading to the Doggie Diner to stand in line for a nine dollar beer.

Bottom of the fifth, Posey's third at-bat

Posey's best at-bat of the day. With the bases load, he takes two pitches and milks the count to 2-0. He gets a fastball but he shrugs it off to make the count 2-1. On the next pitch he sees a breaking ball and drives it up the middle for a single. The crowd goes ballistic again. Posey is making this look so easy, as if he is playing pepper with the Arizona pitching staff. A.J. Hinch changes pitchers after Posey's single makes it five to zero.

Posey's already earned Player of the Game honors and the game isn't even over. That's how big he has been today. In three at-bats at this point, he has two hits and two RBI. All in his 2010 debut. I guess Triple-A stats mean something, right Sabes?

Top of the Sixth

In the beginning of the sixth, Stephen Drew hits a groundball to Posey. Posey fields it cleanly, but kind of does a "should I toss or run to the bag" thing. The action kind of throws off Romo, who runs to the bag anyways. Posey at the last minutes tosses the ball to the covering Romo. They make the out, but Drew steps on Romo's foot in the process. Romo is pissed and yells as he walks it off. Two interesting things happen:

1.) Posey says nothing to Romo, as if he knows Romo is pissed off at him for waiting so long to make up his mind (Posey says this in the postgame on KNBR) and he doesn't want to invoke anything else and 2.) no training staff sees Romo after the out, though it's obvious he was stepped on. Seriously, I thought training staffs were supposed to look at every little thing?

The more important moment of the inning? The Giants have on the video a "Pump your first" inning. What makes it better is the clips from "Jersey Shore" mixed in with shots of fans pumping their fists to a song "Pump your fist" around the stadium. Ironically, this isn't the first "Jersey Shore" reference at AT&T Park today (Lincecum says Mark Derosa would be the best teammate to be on "Shore"). I find it amazing how this MTV show has penetrated Major League Baseball this year, from The Situation's Vitamin Water commercial with David Wright to the "Pump your fist" inning at AT&T Park.

Oh, I'm not complaining about any of this by the way.

Bottom of the seventh, Posey's fourth at-bat

Runners on second and third and Posey is up again. After taking a first called strike, Posey laces the next pitch between the third baseman and shortstop for a single. Sandoval scores and Posey has his third hit of the day. As Posey takes off his gloves at first base, he is greeted again by first base coach Roberto Kelly who has a look on his face that says "And we kept you HOW LONG in Fresno?" This Kelly face however is topped later in the inning after Denny Bautista's hit. After Bautista's "swing from your shoes and pray to God the ball hits your bat" hit, Kelly greets the reliever at first with a look that says "You have to give Rowand a hard time when you get back in the dugout."

Overall, you couldn't be happier with Posey's debut. Three hits, three RBI and some solid defense at first. Granted, I still want him to catcher, but Posey is athletic enough to play the position for the time being. Then again, I'm not worried about Posey's defense right now. He is hitting, and if he can spark the Giants offense like he did tonight, then well...the Giants will be thankful they called up Posey sooner than they wanted to.

Buster Posey Up From Fresno! At-Bat Analysis Later Tonight

2010-05-29T12:48:00.000-07:00

Being a fan who has resided in two different areas out of the Giants area for the past five years (four years in Spokane and one year so far in Los Angeles), I don't get to go to many games at AT&T Park. I long for the day when I finally am able to reside in the Bay Area and get season tickets or get enough money to purchase MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings annually. For the time being though, I have to deal with this reality of following the team from afar.

Well, in my first game of the 2010 season at AT&T Park, I will be able to see the player I have pined for all season: Buster Posey.

According to Andrew Baggarly's blog Extra Baggs, Posey is slated to start at first base tonight with Aubrey Huff moving to left. Now, I'm not so keen about this move on paper. First off, Bengie Molina is not a serviceable Major League catcher anymore (as I have noted in a post yesterday), so I don't know why the Giants cut ties with him or somehow work out a trade. I mean, Molina is poor defensively, has no power and kills the team with his lack of speed. Sure, Timmy is comfortable with him, but you know what? You're going to have to get used to Posey at some point. Why not start sooner than later?

Furthermore, I'm not sure about Huff in left. Huff has only played nine total games in his career in left field, so I wonder if he's going to be able to make the adjustment to the outfield after getting comfortable at first base this season (Huff's 0.5 UZR/150 has been a surprise, especially considering his career UZR at first base is minus-11.8). What makes the situation worse is the fact that Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker are going to be the odd men out. Because of Bruce Bochy's love for Aaron Rowand (and his .286 wOBA), Schierholtz is going to lose playing time because the Giants can't afford to bench Andres Torres, who has become the Giants' leadoff hitter. It's tough to stomach because Schierholtz has been so good defensively in his career and offensively he has stepped up nicely this year (his .340 wOBA and 0.77 BB/K ratio show that).

As for Bowker, he has struggled this year, no doubt (.276 wOBA). However, Bowker needs more playing time and has shown at time that he is on the cusp of turning it around should he be given more at-bats. With Posey up and Pat Burrell apparently on the move to the Bay Area, it almost seems like a given that Bowker is destined for Fresno real soon.

Overall, I'm happy Brian Sabean decided to suck it up and call up Posey. I hope soon enough the Giants management will come to their senses and either bench or designate Molina for assignment and put Posey behind the plate, which will keep Torres and Schierholtz in the outfield, and give the Giants their best lineup overall (both offensively and defensively).

It will definitely be interesting in the long-run. For the short term now, I'm just excited to see Posey play in person for the first time. Expect an at-bat analysis for Posey later tonight or early tomorrow after I come back home from AT&T Park.

Bengie Molina Making It Hard for the Giants to Keep Down Buster Posey

2010-05-28T22:40:00.000-07:00

Bengie Molina is a fan favorite of the Giants. I admit that. When you have been as solid behind the backstop as he has been from 2007 through now, you have to like the guy a little bit.

Unfortunately, as likable as Molina is, this is certain: he doesn't offer much anymore as a starting Major League catcher.

This is amplified by the fact that Buster Posey, the Giants' No. 1 prospect according to Baseball America, is tearing up the Pacific Coast League with a .349 batting average and .955 OPS in Fresno.

Now, I know people will point to a few factors in defense of Molina. Here are a few things Molina supporters will bring up about the veteran catcher.

1.) Molina is still a good hitting catcher, and he has become more patient at the plate.
2.) Molina has traditionally been one of the better defensive catchers in the game.
3.) The Giants pitching staff feels comfortable with Molina behind the plate.

Those points are all nice, but they are refutable.

In terms of point number one, yes, Molina isn't a bad hitting catcher when you compare him to Jason Kendall or Eli Whiteside. However, when you look at he number overall, Molina really hasn't been that impressive this year.

For starters, his slugging percentage is way down, which accordingly, has affected his OPS numbers. If you look at his slugging numbers from 2007-2009, Molina posted percentages of .433, .445 and .442. This season? The number sits at a paltry .353, which has also resulted in a .691 OPS (the last time his OPS was under .700 was in 2002 with the Angels when it was .596).

In terms of his OBP numbers (.338 so far this year, which is a 29 point improvement over his .308 career OBP), while they are nice, there are two problems:

1.) They most likely aren't sustainable considering his track record.
2.) Getting on-base doesn't make much of a difference in Molina's value.

Point number one is easy. We're already starting to see a dramatic drop off in May (.292 OBP) from the crazy numbers he posted in April (.402 OBP). Sure, he's swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone (32.8 percent) than in years past (he had O-swing percentages over 40 percent the past two years), but it is still a high number nonetheless. Case in point, his O-swing percentage was 33.7 percent in 2007. What was his OBP? .298.

Now, is he going to dip under .300? Maybe not, but I think Giants fans should be prepared for Molina's OBP totals to be around, if not below the ZiPS rest of the season projection of .310.

Then again, even if Molina beats history and sustains this high OBP, it is a rather dubious honor for him. Why is that? Because even though he may get on-base, his severe lack of speed is an absolute killer in terms of scoring runs. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if pitchers are more aggressive with Molina this year, knowing that even if he gets on base by walk, his slow-as-molasses base running won't hurt them in the runs department. Molina is strictly a station to station baserunner, and even that's putting it nicely.

Lastly in terms of offense, look at the pre-season ZiPS projections on Posey, and Molina's rest of the season ZiPS projections.

Posey: .282 average, .741 OPS, 64.8 wRC, 1.8 wRAA, .333 wOBA.
Molina: .272 average, .724 OPS, 36.7 wRC, minus-1.7 wRAA, .320 wOBA.

As you can see, Posey not only would be a serviceable replacement for Molina offensively, he might actually be an upgrade. Posey, if promoted and given the starting job, would add runs to a team that needs offense. Molina, at this point, only seems to be a detriment to the Giants offense when he is in the lineup.

In terms of point number two, Molina isn't a good defensive catcher anymore. I'm sorry to say it, but it's true. Check out this article from Beyond the Box Score, a sabermetrics blog, that ranks every catcher defensively according to various metrics.

Where does Bengie Molina rank? 74th. The only catchers of note that he is better than are Mike Napoli and Ryan Doumit, and nobody has pined in the past for those guys to win Gold Gloves. To make matters worse, Whiteside is ranked 28th, which only puts more salt in the wound of the "Molina is a serviceable Major League catcher" argument.

If you don't like the advanced defensive metrics of Beyond the Box Score (and believe me, it did take me a while to comprehend the rankings), just look at the steal rate between Molina and Posey. Baserunners have stolen 34 bases out of 39 attempts this season (a 12.8 percent CS rate). Baserunners have only stolen 15 bases out of 27 attempts on Posey this year (a 44 percent CS rate).

Sure, Molina is in the Majors and Posey is in the PCL. However, the difference is so disparaging that Posey couldn't be any worse than Molina in the Majors.

Lastly, I understand the pitching staff may like Molina. However, it's not as if Molina plays every day. Eli Whiteside has played in 21 games this year, and is usually the regular catcher for Jonathan Sanchez and sometimes Barry Zito. So, it's not as if EVERY member of the pitching staff needs Molina. Furthermore, with Molina's declining athleticism, how dependable do you think a pitcher like Tim Lincecum thinks Molina is when his control is off? I guarantee you the confidence Lincecum has in Molina now, isn't quite at the same level it was when Timmy started pitching full-time in 2008.

I understand the financial commitment that will be required if the Giants bring up Posey. I understand the financial loss the Giants would incur should they designate Molina for assignment. I'm not completely blind to the situation the Giants management have at hand.

However, Posey is a very special catcher, much like Matt Wieters and Joe Mauer before him. With those guys, when they were ready, the Orioles and Twins, respectively brought them up and took a chance on them, regardless of their status and who was holding the job before them. Sure, the Giants could move up Posey and have him split time at first and catcher, but Molina doesn't want to share the job, and Posey is a franchise-caliber player. He deserves to be playing in his future position, not messing around at other positions. This is the Major Leagues, not a high school summer league.

Who knows what Brian Sabean will do when he brings up Posey. This is certain though: Posey is an upgrade over Molina at this point, and if you don't believe me, just look at the numbers. Posey beats the pants off of Molina in every category.

Can Denny Bautista and Santiago Casilla Invigorate the Giants Bullpen?

2010-05-27T17:42:00.000-07:00

After coming back and beating the Nationals today 5-4, the Giants remained over .500 for the season at 24-22. While the record is still promising, the Giants have struggled in the month of May, alarming considering many of the teams in the NL West who flopped in April are starting to turn it around this month (e.g. Colorado, Los Angeles).

Now, the Giants have offensive problems. No doubt about it. Furthermore, there are concerns with Tim Lincecum as well, especially after his latest six hit, six run, five walk performance in 4.2 IP on Wednesday against the Nationals.

Yet one of the big concerns that has Giants fans up in arms is this: can the bullpen hold up and keep the Giants competitive?

The bullpen can mean the difference between a rebuilding season and a playoff run, and the Giants have experienced this first-hand. In 2008, during their 72-90 season, the Giants bullpen was one of the worst in baseball, sporting a 4.45 ERA (24th in the Majors). In 2009, when the Giants went 88-74 and just missed out on the NL Wild Card, the bullpen posted an ERA of 3.49, second-best in baseball (behind only the Dodgers, who had a bullpen ERA of 3.14).

How are the Giants relievers doing this season? Well, the results have been mixed. Brian Wilson is off to a solid start having converted 12 out of his first 13 saves, and sporting an ERA of 2.45. Furthermore, the Giants have gotten solid performances out of journeyman and former Dodger (God I hate saying that) Guillermo Mota, who has appeared in 18 games this season and holds an ERA of 1.13 and a WHIP of 0.94.

However, after ranking second last year in the Majors, the Giants bullpen currently ranks 10th in the league with a 3.68 team ERA. Furthermore, many Giants relievers who were expected to have an impact this year haven't necessarily gotten off to the best of starts.

Brandon Medders, who is currently on the disabled list, has been a train wreck, as evidenced by his 7.20 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in 14 appearances (granted, his 5.83 FIP suggests that he isn't as bad as his ERA says, but nonetheless, a 5.83 FIP isn't necessarily a sterling number either).

Fireballer Dan Runzler, who burst on the scene in September last year hasn't been much better. While Runzler's strikeout numbers continue to impress (20 strikeouts in 18 IP), his 1.54 BB/K ratio and 83.7 percent contact rate suggests that Runzler may have some command issues that he may need to sort out. Much like Medders, Runzler's FIP (3.77) suggests that he's better than his ERA (5.00), and he does induce a lot of groundballs (1.75 GB/FB ratio). However, considering Runzler is a two pitch pitcher (he throws his fastball 73.8 percent of the time and his slider 25.5 percent of the time) and his velocity has dropped (the average velocity on his fastball has dropped from 94.7 MPH in 2009 to 93.6 MPH this year), Runzler may be regulated to middle relief or mop up duty in the Giants bullpen and may see some time in Fresno to boot.

So, with Medders and Runzler struggling, Sergio Romo going through his usual fits of inconsistency (Romo has a solid BB/K ratio at 3.80 and WHIP at 0.89, but his FIP is unusually high at 4.04 as his HR/FB ratio at 9.4 percent), and with Jeremey Affeldt struggling with his control (5.19 BB/9; 1.40 BB/K ratio), is there anybody in the Giants bullpen of worth other than Mota and Wilson?

There are two candidates who could spark the Giants bullpen:

Denny Bautista and Santiago Casilla.

Now, Bautista and Casilla aren't exactly young and they don't necessarily have track records of success. Both Bautista and Casilla are turning 30 this season and both relievers struggled mightily with their respective teams (Bautista the Pirates; Casilla the A's) last season.

However, Bautista and Casilla throw serious heat and can strike guys out. This year, Bautista is averaging 95.3 MPH on his fastball. Casilla has been even better, averaging 96.7 MPH on his fastball.

If you don't believe me on Casilla, check out his velocity charts from today's game.

That is some serious gas, and can explain why Casilla has six strikeouts in 2.2 IP in 2010.

Bautista has been solid as well in terms of striking guys out. In 7.1 IP, Bautista has 11 strikeouts. Furthermore, he is sporting a contact rate of 74 percent and a swinging strike percentage of 10.3 percent (the league average swinging strike percentage is 8.3 percent).

That being said, it is not as if Bautista and Casilla are perfect. Both have issues with their control. Bautista has a career 5.12 BB/9 and 1.31 BB/K ratio, which isn't exactly comforting. Casilla also has suffered with the same problems, as evidenced by his career 4.49 BB/9 and 1.77 BB/K ratio.

Bautista has suffered in terms of finding the strike zone at times in 2010. This year, Bautista has walked eight batters in 7.1 IP and spots a WHIP of 1.91. Casilla has been solid with only one walk and a WHIP of 0.36. Despite these sterling numbers, Giants fans have to take it with a grain of salt, mainly because it is such a small sample (case in point, his WHIP was 1.78 last year and his BB/K ratio was 1.40 with the Oakland A's).

Are Bautista and Casilla saviors to this Giants bullpen? Probably not. However, both guys throw serious heat and can strike guys out, which is what you want from relievers in your bullpen. With Affeldt's health and effectiveness in question, and Medders' 2009 looking like a fluke, both Bautista and Casilla will be greatly needed to have breakout seasons in 2010.

At this point, I think it's totally possible for both Dominican-born pitchers.

Scarce Six: A Look at the African-American Players in the Giants Organization

2010-05-25T13:48:00.000-07:00

I just realized this fact after I saw Emmanuel Burriss get transferred to the 60-day Disabled List on May 22 to make room for Santiago Casilla: the Giants haven't had one African-American player take the field for them this year. Burriss has been hurt and on the disabled list all season, and Fred Lewis, the only other African-American player on the 25-man active roster this Spring, was traded away to Toronto shortly after the season began.

In my mind, this is incredible, and may be the first year in a long time that the Giants have not had an African-American player take the field in a Giants uniform. I mean, this is a franchise that has housed great African-American players like Willie Mays, Monte Irvin, Hank Thompson, Willie McCovey, Bobby Bonds, Jeffrey Leonard, Kevin Mitchell, Ellis Burks, Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton (for a half-season anyways), Ray Durham, and of course, Barry Bonds.

Now, I don't think you can blame this one on the Giants organization or use the racism card on Bill Neukom or Brian Sabean (though I wish we could because it would get Sabean fired). The lack of African-American ballplayers on the Giants roster is simply a reality of the game nowadays. It's not just the Giants that lack African-American players, a lot of teams are. Last year, in a tweet, Bill Simmons joked that the Red Sox "had more Jewish guys on their team than African-Americans." Hence, anybody claiming the Giants as a "racist" organization may have a hard argument to make.

That being said, the organization isn't completely bare of talented African American players. Let's take a look at the African-American players in the Giants organization and how soon (or if) they will see playing time in a San Francisco Giants uniform.

Emmanuel Burriss, 2B/SS

Stats this season: None (Has been on Disabled List all year due to a foot injury).

Burriss has plenty of experience on this Giants team and may be the only African-American player in the Giants organization that could play for the Giants this year. Burriss is coming off a foot injury this Spring, which is disheartening mainly because the strongest aspect of his game is his speed (he stole 11 bases last year in 61 games). Burriss doesn't have much power (.046 and .030 ISO the past two seasons), but he had a very strong BB/K ratio in 2008 (0.96) and he has a strong propensity to make contact at the plate (career 87.6 percent contact rate in the Majors). Burriss isn't a bad defender, but his UZR suggests that he may not be as good as advertised (minus-17.7 UZR/150 at shortstop in 2008; minus-3.9 UZR/150 at second base last year).

The biggest roadblock to Burriss' path in the Majors this year (other than his injury) may be the crowded Giants infield. With Juan Uribe, Freddy Sanchez, Edgar Renteria, and Matt Downs all vying for playing position at second base and shortstop, there just may not be any room for Burriss at the Major League level this season. In all likelihood, when he comes back, Burris will be playing most (if not all) of the year in Fresno, which isn't necessarily a bad thing considering he's only played 21 total games above the Advanced Single-A level.

Darren Ford, OF
Stats this season: .247 average, .319 OBP, .673 OPS, 19 R, 14 SB in 38 games in Richmond (Double-A).

Darren Ford turned some heads after a strong year in San Jose in 2009 (.384 wOBA, 81 runs scored, 35 stolen bases) and a surprising Spring Training (11 hits, 11 runs scored in 22 at-bats). While Ford did not make the active, 25-man roster (tough to justify that one when the highest level he played before Spring Training was Advanced Single-A), it was safe to say that Ford earned his spot on the Giants' 40-man roster after Spring Training ended.

So far in 2010, the results have been mixed for Ford. While he has stolen 14 bases, Ford hasn't hit particularly well in the Eastern League for the Flying Squirrels. Granted, this isn't necessarily too big a deal (the Eastern League is known to be a pitcher's league), but the 23.3 percent strikeout percentage and 9.1 walk percentage (he also sports a 0.42 BB/K ratio; almost a ten point dip from 2009) certainly don't make you as a Giants fan feel particularly hopeful that he will get a callup anytime soon.

Ford's speed definitely is attractive, especially considering the Giants' only legitimate stolen base threat is Andres Torres at this point. However, unless he's able to really turn it around, it's safe to say that the soonest Ford will be up with the Giants will be in 2011.

Thomas Neal, OF
Stats this season: .263 average, .332 OBP, .706 OPS, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 15 R, 5 SB in 44 games in Richmond (Double-A).

The hype around Thomas Neal amplified after a breakout year in San Jose last season. In the California League last year, Neal hit 22 HR, scored 102 runs and posted an OPS 1.010 and a wOBA .444 in 129 games. The performance had such an impact on the Giants brass and media that it earned him a non-roster invite to Spring Training, and a spot in the Top-Five of every Giants Prospect Rankings publication, blog or Web site.

However, this year has been anything but kind to Neal. After a disappointing, short Spring Training stint (Neal has only two hits in 11 at-bats), Neal hasn't necessarily been showing the power he displayed in the California League in 2009. This year, he has hit only three home runs and his slugging percentage sits at .374 (his slugging hasn't been under .444 since his first stint in the Northwest League).

The biggest concern with Neal though has to be his plate patience, which has been a bit questionable this season. After posting walk percentages over 9.5 percent the last three years, Neal currently has a walk percentage of 7.1 percent. This has affected his BB/K ratio, which currently sits at 0.37 (last year in San Jose it was 0.66).

Neal eventually is going to see more balls drop for hits. That's just the reality of the game and playing in the Eastern League. However, he has to improve his plate patience if he wants to live up to that billing of being a Top-Five prospect in the Giants organization.

Wendell Fairley, OF
Stats this season: .283 average, .367 OBP, .677 OPS, 15 RBI, 2 SB in 33 games in San Jose (Advanced Single-A).

Fairley was a first-round pick for the Giants in the 2007 first-year player draft. However, despite his draft position, many draft experts felt he was picked in the first round for cost reasons rather than his talent (the Giants had four first round picks in 2007).

Like many experts have predicted, Fairley has disappointed in his tenure in the Giants organization. While he posted a solid wOBA (.363) and BB/K ratio in (0.70) in Arizona Rookie League in 2008, he tumbled greatly in his first season in the South Atlantic League with the Greenjackets in 2009. Fairley went down in wOBA (.307), average (.243), stolen bases (only two stolen bases in six attempts), and BB/K ratio (0.35). And he did this with an improvement in BABIP (it jumped from .308 in 2008 to .338 in 2009).

However, things have turned around a little bit for Fairley in 2010. He started the year off well, holding his own in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee (he had two hits in five at-bats). He has transitioned that strong impression to a pretty solid year so far in San Jose. While he may not hit for power (his slugging is very underwhelming at .310), his ability to get on-base (.367 OBP) has some Giants fans and management people turning their heads a little bit.

Fairley could use some more refinement at the plate (his BB/K ratio is 0.33). That being said, considering how well he has played lately (he is hitting .324 in his last 10 games), it isn't out of the question to think that Fairley can continue to progress in the California League, and improve in his power and plate patience categories. If he is able to build upon this recent hot streak, it will definitely help him shed that "Tumbler" label he's been tagged with since 2008.

James Simmons, OF
Stats this season: .227 average, .299 OBP, .670 OPS, 7 SB, 9 RBI in 33 games in San Jose (Advanced Single-A).

I really don't know much about Simmons, and I don't think many Giants fans do either. Simmons was a 24th round draft pick in the 2005 MLB amateur draft and came out of Vernon Junior College in Texas. He hasn't been listed in any of the Giants Top Prospects lists, and he has only played in the Arizona Rookie League and the South Atlantic League in addition to the California League (where he currently plays).

What can I tell you about Simmons? He has some athleticism, and has the ability to steal a base. In 2008, he stole 25 bases for Augusta. Last year, he stole 15 bases while doing another tour of duty for the Greenjackets, but he only got caught once. This year, he has been similarly effective, with seven stolen bases on eight tries.

Despite that solid baserunning ability however, Simmons hasn't showed much with the bat. This year he is hitting .227 in San Jose, and the same has been true throughout his four years in the minors. He really jumped onto the scene in 2006, posting a .360 wOBA in Rookie League, but for the next two years he didn't have a wOBA over .292 at any level (he bounced around from Augusta to San Jose). In 2009, he picked it up and posted a wOBA of .343, but considering that it was his third go-around in Augusta, those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

So, what kind of hopes can Giants fans have for a guy like Simmons? Not much, really. But then again, he was a 24th round draft pick, so it makes sense why you can't expect too much from the guy.

Evan Crawford, OF
Stats this season: .273 average, .355 OBP, .718 OPS, 22 R, 9 SB in 42 games in San Jose (Single-A).

Crawford was the Giants' ninth round pick in the 2009 first year player draft. For some reason, I have a lot of hope for this kid (he seems to have a good head on his shoulders). He played three seasons at Indiana University, and had a solid campaign in 2009, posting an .847 OPS and 27 stolen bases. Immediately after he was drafted, Crawford head to Arizona Rookie League, where he hit .273, scored 14 runs and stole nine bases in 16 games. When he was promoted Salem Keizer of the Northwest League, Crawford played even better, posting a .316 average and a wOBA of .381.

Now, it's tough to tell how good Crawford's Volcanoes campaign really was. While his wOBA was high, as was his OBP (.375), there were some concerning numbers. For starters, his BABIP was .412, which is extremely high and probably means he was extremely luck when it came to finding hits (which isn't sustainable, especially as you advance through the minor league system). Second, his BB/K ratio wasn't exactly impressive at 0.30. A high strikeout percentage (26.3 percent) most likely happened to be the culprit of his mediocre BB/K ratio, though he seems to be a player that strikes out a lot in general (he had a 22.7 percent strikeout rate in Arizona Rookie League).

This year, he began the year in Augusta and for the most part, it has been solid. He hasn't showed much power (.364 slugging), but that's been true since his college days (he hit only four home runs total at Indiana). Additionally, while he still shows a lot of speed (nine stolen bases) and he certainly can get on-base (.355 OBP), the strikeouts (37 in 165 at-bats, which is a 22.7 percent strikeout rate) still are a bit of a concern. To look at it on the bright side, at least Crawford is now getting better at drawing walks. This year, he has drawn 18 walks (9.8 percent walk percentage) and has a BB/K ratio of 0.49 (which is 19 points higher than his BB/K ratio in Salem-Keizer).

Crawford may be a year or two away from even sniffing the Giants roster. However, this kid certainly has under-the-radar talent, and considering his improvement in plate discipline this year with Greenjackets, I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to progress and surprise as a ballplayer as he moves up through the Giants farm system.

Bad Month or Bad Overall? A Look at the Giants' Offensive Numbers

2010-05-23T20:37:00.000-07:00

The San Francisco Giants are currently 22-21 after the Oakland A's completed a three-game sweep at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium (God I hate writing the whole name...I'll just call it the OAC from now on). Panic mode has officially reared its ugly head with Giants fans, and I hate to admit it, but I've hopped on that bandwagon somewhat as well.

However, as a baseball fan, I try to be objective. I look at the numbers and try to keep things in context. I understand Bengie Molina currently has an OBP of .361 and a 0.85 BB/K ratio. That being said, Molina has a career 0.43 BB/K ratio and OBP of .309, so to think he's going to maintain those levels over the full course of a season in my mind is unrealistic.

The same thinking goes with this entire Giants offense. I know. They are coming off two straight sweeps to two, average ballclubs (Arizona and Oakland). Injuries and ineffectiveness have hit this Giants roster hard, and there seems to be increasing pressure on general manager Brian Sabean to make a move, especially with guys like Pat Burrell available. (I'm sure Sabes is "working around the clock" on this; I can picture his reaction if you ask him if he's working on getting an offensive player.)

But how bad has the Giants offense been? Well...let's take a look at the more advanced numbers.

OPS: .722 (19th in MLB).
wOBA (weighted on base average): .319 (19th in MLB).
wRC (runs created based on wOBA): 179 (tied for 21st in MLB).
wRAA (runs above average based on wOBA): minus-9 (19th in MLB).
BABIP (batting average of balls put in play): .299 (tied for 19th in MLB).
ISO (Isolated Power): .136 (21st in MLB).

As you can see, the Giants during the first two months haven't been just below league average. They have had trouble scoring runs (like last year), which hasn't been helped by their relative lack of power (the ISO number I think is the particular killer) or their lineup choices (batting Aaron Rowand at leadoff for so long was a mistake, especially considering his minus-1.7 wRAA is third worst of Giants hitters with 50 or more plate appearances).

However, while the numbers after 43 games certainly isn't in the Giants hitters' favor, you have to look at the month of May specifically. Some interesting numbers pop up.

OPS: .670 (25th in MLB).
wOBA: .298 (25th in MLB).
wRC: 72 (27th in MLB).
wRAA: minus-18 (25th in MLB).
BABIP: .275 (26th in MLB).
ISO: .130 (20th in MLB).

The Giants have been tremendously worse in May, with the only category better than their overall season averages being the ISO, which actually isn't too bad (or at least for Giants standards). The wOBA, wRC and wRAA numbers are particularly disheartening, but I think Giants fans can take comfort in one stat:

The .275 BABIP.

Now, BABIP can mean a variety of things. The Giants could be unlucky (which most certainly has been the case considering their 19.1 percent line drive percentage in May is 12th best in the league) or they just have bumped into very good defensive teams (the Padres, Diamondbacks and Mets, three teams the Giants have played in May, all have solid UZR/150 numbers this year).

However, in all likelihood the BABIP is going to rise or at the very least, fluctuate (the Giants had a .317 BABIP in April) as the season progresses, which will in turn, affect the Giants' offensive numbers. I don't think the Giants are going to top the Majors in offense in a given month anytime soon, but at the same time, I don't think the Giants are going to have as bad a month offensively as they have had this May.

Granted, how is that BABIP going to change? Who knows. The Giants will get luckier, they will face "clunkier" defensive teams (the Dodgers and Rockies have negative UZR/150 numbers, with the Dodgers having the worst UZR/150 in the Majors at negative-15.4) and guys will turn it around and bust out of their respective slumps (crossing my fingers now for Pablo Sandoval). I think those are the best (if only) things Giants fans, management and players can hope for at this point.

Now, Giants fans have to keep things in perspective. The Giants are not a well-built team offensively. Mark Derosa has been a major disappointment (he has a team-worst .243 wOBA), and Molina and Rowand have been deceivingly tolerable (Molina's wOBA at .328 proves that he isn't much better from last season; Rowand's wRAA says it all). And, while Freddy Sanchez has just gotten back from the disabled list, I'm not optimistic about him living up to that $12 million contract if he has more performances like the one he had today (0-for-4, 2 SO).

The Giants have some good pieces though (Andres Torres, who has a .383 wOBA and Aubrey Huff and his .354 wOBA has been a surprise as well), and the offense can still be good enough to remain competitive in the NL West (especially considering their pitching, which has still remained solid...sans the middle relief).

After all, if you look at the division-leading Padres, they rank below the Giants in nearly every offensive category in May, but their BABIP still hovers at .300. When the Padres hit a bad stretch of luck (which they will), it is likely that they will free fall in the standings as well.

It has been a disappointing start to the season, especially when you factor in the poor starts Colorado and Los Angeles got off to. However, the Giants have an opportunity to stay in it, and I think the numbers above show that the Giants have suffered some bad luck and poor management decisions, which I don't think (or at least hope) will happen again. With manager Bruce Bochy mixing up the lineup (and in a good way too), I think there is potential for the Giants to improve those offensive categories a little bit come June.

Will the improvement offensively in the long run by the Giants hitters be enough to win a World Series or NL Pennant? Most likely not. Will it be enough to win the NL West or earn a playoff spot? Maybe. Will it be enough to stay competitive in the NL West?

When you got pitchers like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation...absolutely.

Five Available Players the Giants Should Pass On

2010-05-22T17:32:00.000-07:00

It's official. After today's 1-0 loss to the Oakland A's, the Giants should be in panic mode when it comes to upgrading the offense. Aaron Rowand isn't cutting it at leadoff (though this isn't exactly "surprising" news) and for whatever reason, Pablo Sandoval has suddenly transformed from budding-Vlad Guerrero to budding-Randall Simon. Add that with Bengie Molina starting to cool off and things don't look good for the Giants and their playoff aspirations.

That being said, despite the Giants desperate (and I mean, "Elizabeth Berkley needing an actress role" desperate) need for offense, they should pass on the following five players who are available and could come at low-cost, but are too much of a risk to acquire.

Number Five: Kaz Matsui, Infielder

Why Matsui is enticing

After hitting .141 and posting a wOBA of .167 to start off the year, the Houston Astros released Matsui on May 19th, deciding to go with Jeff Keppinger at second base for the remainder of the season.

While Matsui seems to be a better fit with the Colorado Rockies (who are in need of a second baseman due to Clint Barmes' slow start), Matsui could be of some use to the Giants. Edgar Renteria has struggled with injuries all year, and Freddy Sanchez's health is also in question after just coming off the disabled list. Matt Downs is a nice option and has performed well, but after falling back to earth recently, one has to wonder if he can contribute to the Giants over the course of a full season. Additionally, Juan Uribe, who also got off to a hot start, has cooled in the month of May (.242 average and .343 wOBA in May; compared to his .313 average and .358 wOBA in April).

Matsui may not be a regular starter, but he could be much needed insurance for a Giants infield that has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency so far this season.

Why Matsui is frightening

Matsui the past couple of years has really declined as a player, and it's hard to see why ESPN Magazine tagged him as the "Next" athlete in their 2004 "Next" issue.

Since 2008, Matsui's slugging numbers have dipped from .427 (in 2008) to .357 (2009) to .155 (this season). The same goes with his OBP (.354 to .302 to .197) and wOBA (.349 to .297 to .167) numbers. Granted, Matsui is not exactly young (34 years old), but it's surprising to see him take such a dive this past few years.

Add that with very questionable defense (he has had negative UZR numbers two out of the past three seasons), and Matsui proves to be a very risky option. Sure, he could be an upgrade over Renteria or Sanchez, but he could also be tremendously worse, which is very hard to stomach for Giants fans.

Why the Giants should pass

Matsui is too much of a risk and has been to much of an underachiever to take a flier on. His career wOBA is .314, and he pretty much has been living off his 2007 season in Colorado when he had a .341 wOBA and stole 32 bases. The Giants are not going to get that 2007 Matsui, or even the slightly decent 2008 version. If acquired, the Giants would get a declining infielder who won't be an upgrade over Sanchez, Renteria, Uribe, or even Downs.

Number Four: Jermaine Dye, Outfielder

Why Dye is enticing

Though he hasn't played since last year, Dye is still available and still apparently in game shape (or at least that's what he says). While last year he declined in a lot of offensive categories (his wOBA dropped from .376 in 2008 to .344 last year), he still hit 27 home runs. Considering the Giants are in dire need of a power threat (sorry...Molina in the cleanup spot for a third straight year isn't cutting it), Dye does fill in a need, and the Giants don't have to give up any prospects in return.

Why Dye is frightening

Do I really need to go through the list? Okay...I will.

He's 36 years old.
His UZR/150 has been in the minus-20 range three of the past four seasons (and when it wasn't, it was minus-18.9 in 2008).
He has suffered massive drop in offensive categories such as batting average (from .292 in 2008 to .250 in 2009), slugging (.541 to .453) and OPS (.885 to .793).
He was actually detrimental to his team last year (according to WAR values, he cost the White Sox $1.7 million dollars).
$1.5 million dollars isn't enough for Dye. (He's entering Latrell Sprewell territory at this point.)

Why the Giants should pass

Did you not read anything above? If you still want to sign him after reading that, then...well...I don't know what to tell you.

Number Three: Eric Byrnes, Outfielder

Why Byrnes is enticing

Well...he hustles. And he can hit bombs. Don't believe me? Check this out:

Dang. That was parked.

Why Byrnes is frightening

Well, he has had sub-.300 wOBA numbers the past three seasons, he tanked in his short stint with the Mariners this season and defensively and he isn't the Byrnes fans are accustomed to (he had a minus-8.1 UZR/150 this year with the Mariners and a minus-7.0 UZR/150 with the D'Backs in 2008).

Oh, and this is Major League baseball, not club softball.

Why the Giants should pass

Would you rather have John Bowker and Nate Schierholtz in left and right field? Or an injured Mark Derosa and Byrnes? Yeah....I think Giants fans know the answer to that one.

Number two: Carlos Lee, outfielder

Why Lee is enticing

Though he says he won't waive his no-trade clause, the clock seems to be ticking for Lee's tenure in Houston. While Lee does have a massive contract ($18.5 million per year), he does have a history of hitting for power and run production, something you can't really say out of any other players in the Giants lineup. Last year, Lee hit 26 home runs and drove in 102 RBI. Furthermore, Lee has a history of tremendous plate discipline. From 2006-2009, Lee's wOBA ranged from .355 to .396 and his BB/K ratio didn't dip below 0.76.

Those are the kinds of qualities the Giants could use in a cleanup hitter.

Why Lee is frightening

Not only has Lee gone through an awful season so far (.199 average, .250 wOBA), but he hasn't exactly won any awards for "Teammate of the Year" recently. On May 14th, Lee got in a spat with Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter, and Lee wasn't exactly gracious about it either. While Lee isn't a Barry Bonds, one has to wonder if getting a guy like Lee would be the best thing for a team that is so well-known for their clubhouse chemistry.

I mean, ask Seattle Mariners fans what it's like when you bring in a guy with "questionable character issues."

Why the Giants should pass

Lee is a big bopper, but overall, he's too expensive and is too much of a clubhouse risk for the Giants to acquire. Then again, Lee has to waive his no-trade clause in order for anything to be a possibility, but even if he does, Lee certainly isn't worth dealing for considering where he's at in his career (hint: on the decline).

Number one: Pat Burrell, outfielder

Why Burrell is enticing

Burrell is the hottest name right now on the market. Already, we have seen two Giants beat writers (Hank "I love Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy" Schulman of the Chronicle and Mychel Urban of CSN Bay Area) kibosh the rumors of the Giants having interest in Burrell, and one (Andrew Baggarly) say that the Giants could pursue him.

You can't blame the Giants having some interest. After all, Burrell won't cost the Giants anything, he is a Bay Area kid (he went to Bellarmine Prep in San Jose), he's got some nice chest hair, and he has a proven track record.

From 2005 to 2008, the lowest wOBA he posted was .374, and the lowest BB/K ratio he had in that time span was 0.62. Add that with an average of 31 home runs a year in those four seasons, and you can see why the Rays were willing to shell out some cash for him when he became a free agent after the 2008 season.

Why Burrell is frightening

The Burrell in Tampa Bay experiment really went horribly wrong for general manager Andrew Friedman and the Rays. Last year, Burrell's home run total dipped to 14 (his HR/FB ratio in 2009 was 9.8 percent; the lowest it was before that was in 2003 when it was 12.3 percent) and his wOBA plummeted to .304.

Burrell last year, for a lack of a better word, stunk. And, if you need more evidence of his mediocrity, check out his minus-9.6 wRAA (runs above average based on wOBA) and minus-0.5 WAR (which accumulated to negative-$2.3 dollars in value; Burrell was signed to a two-year, $16 million contract before 2009).

This year hasn't been much better. His HR/FB has actually gone down (to 7.4 percent) and his wOBA is even worse at .284. Furthermore, Burrell's strong plate discipline has been absent this year as well. He sports a BB/K ratio of 0.36 (the lowest of his career so far) and he has swung at 25.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (another career high).

Burrell just isn't the same player baseball fans saw from 2005-2008, and you can't blame Friedman and the Rays cutting ties with him so early in the season.

Why the Giants should pass

I would like to believe that Burrell is more comfortable in the National League than the American League East, and if he makes the transition, would kill like Brad Penny when Penny was traded from Boston to San Francisco late last year. He would make a great comeback story, and his Bay Area roots would resonate with the Giants faithful and media.

Yet, I just don't trust Burrell. His decline offensively the past two years has been eye-popping (especially the BB/K ratio and ISO drop), and he isn't good enough defensively (minus-44.6 career UZR in the outfield) to handle the dimensions of AT&T Park (not to mention make up for this offensive decline).

Burrell sounds good on paper, but Giants fans and management should be warned. He isn't worth the playing time he would take away from Andres Torres, John Bowker or Nate Schierholtz (Aaron Rowand would go unaffected because Bochy has a man-crush on Rowand, which explains why he still bats him leadoff though Rowand has an OBP under .300 and is 0-for-2 in stolen bases).

The Bay Bridge Series: A Worthwhile Interleague Rivalry That Needs to Continue

2010-05-20T23:03:00.000-07:00

(First off, before I start this post, what an awful game to watch today against the Diamondbacks. The Giants had it, lost it, had it again and then lost it again. Jeesh...it's going to be a long season for Giants fans.)

Starting Friday, the Giants will play their first Interleague series of the year against the Oakland A's at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium.

There should be no excuse for Bay Area Baseball fans to miss out on this one. Sure, the A's stadium stinks. Sure, the A's don't have the marquee names they once used to.

Nonetheless, this is a great rivalry, and should be further reason why the A's should stay in Northern California (preferably the Bay Area).

Last year, I went to my first Giants-A's game in Oakland. First off, you can't beat the ticket prices. I got a pair of tickets in the lower section for $26 bucks. $26! You can't beat that, even if Oakland's stadium isn't the greatest place in the Majors. Major League Baseball and Giants baseball is still baseball.

Secondly, there is a unique environment at a Giants-A's game. There is a special kind of environment that you just don't get when the Giants or A's play other teams. Last year, the stadium was half-full with Giants fans (and this was an A's home game mind you!) and after Nate Schierholtz hit a home run over the right field wall, you would have thought you were at AT&T Park by the roars of the crowd. Throughout the game fans alternated between "Let's go Giants" and "Let's go A's" chants, and exchanged playful trash talk, which happened to be delightful to eavesdrop on.

Early in the game, A's third baseman Chad Pennington made an error, bobbling a slow roller. A few rows in front of me, a Giants fan in a Barry Bonds jersey (a rather large one to be frank) stood up and looked to his right at two, younger Oakland fans. He cupped his hands together and said this:

"Walt Weiss would have made that play! You hear me? He is no Walt Weiss!"

Really? The one home run per year Walt Weiss? I gave the guy kudos for the retro reference, even if the two younger fans probably didn't know Weiss played for the A's.

The Giants won the game 6-3. However, I learned something more important after the Giants win: Bay Area fans need this rivalry. Sure, there is the Giants-Dodgers and nothing can top that, but the A's-Giants is a close second. You can't beat that half-and-half split at AT&T Park and Oakland-Alameda County Stadium. You can't beat the coverage in the San Francisco Chronicle or San Jose Mercury. You can't beat that inevitable trash talk at bars after games when guys are decked out in black and orange or green and yellow after games.

Because these two franchises are so close yet so different. Look at the way the Giants have run their organization the last decade and look at how the A's have run things. Look at the difference between Brian Sabean and Billy Beane. Look at the difference between Bruce Bochy and Bob Geren. Heck, look at the difference between Athletics Nation and the McCovey Chronicles, the two main fan blogs for each team.

These two franchises are meant to continue this rivalry. They are meant to continue this rivalry in such close proximity. It would be a shame if the A's not only left Oakland, but left Northern California altogether. Bay Area baseball would not die, but it would be a little less interesting because the rivalry would lessen, if not die altogether. I mean, you think anybody cares about the Toronto Blue Jays playing the Washington Nationals, even though the Nationals used to be the Montreal Expos? No, because the Nationals are not in Canada anymore. The Blue Jays don't have that great "Battle of Canada" rivalry anymore, and baseball has suffered in Canada because of it.

I do not hate the A's. I actually like watching them. I really like players like Kurt Suzuki and Daric Barton and I really respect Billy Beane as a general manager after reading "Moneyball." However, when they play the Giants, all bets our off. I not only want the Giants to win the series, but I want them to win as many as possible, so I can gloat to my fellow friends who happen to be A's fanatics. That luxury would not exist anymore if the A's were gone.

The A's can move to Fremont or San Jose. Or they can stay in Oakland. It doesn't matter in my mind. However, the "Bay Bridge Series" needs to stay in Northern California. It's a series of pride for baseball fans in Northern California, a series the Northern faithful can call their own in the midst of the more popular "Subway Series" and "Chicago Series" that seem to dominate all the headlines come Interleague time. As a matter of fact, it's rivalries like the "Bay Bridge Series" that make me continue to pine for Interleague baseball each and every year.

Let's hope the Giants can bounce back and take this series from the Athletics after a painful sweep by the Diamondbacks. With Zito, Cain and Sanchez going on the hill for the Giants, they certainly have a chance.

That being said, Giants fans should have that soft spot for the A's. We will be sorry if they are no longer in Northern California.

The Writing Is On the Wall for Eugenio Velez

2010-05-19T21:07:00.000-07:00

Two days after getting re-called to the Giants when Mark Derosa headed to the Disabled List, Eugenio Velez is heading back to Fresno after the Giants activated Freddy Sanchez for today's game against the Diamondbacks.

The move is both surprising and predictable. While Velez still has an option left for the Giants (which makes it easier for the Giants to send him up and down between Triple-A and the Majors), so did other guys like Ryan Rohlinger and Matt Downs. Some Giants fans figured with Velez's ability to play multiple positions, and the Giants' injury woes with Edgar Renteria and Derosa, Velez might be given a chance to redeem himself after a slow start to the 2010 season.

(Note: Here is an explanation of how Minor League options work on River Avenue Blues, a NY Yankees blog. Basically options work in years, and if you have an option year, you can be sent up and down as much as possible as long as you have that option year. There isn't a "set" number of options in a given year.)

That doesn't seem to be the case. After Velez got demoted, manager Bruce Bochy said this about Downs, who is currently hitting .269 with a home run and six RBI:

"We'll have Downsie take some ground balls at third," Bochy said. "He'll take some fly balls in the outfield. We'll move him around. The way he's swinging we'll use him as a right-handed pinch-hitter coming off the bench."

Two thoughts come to mind after hearing Bochy's quote:

1.) Bochy really likes to add "ey or ie" to guys' last names. (e.g. Whitey, Downsie, Rowsie...okay, I made the last one up.)

2.) Downs is the third guy Bochy has talked about moving to the outfield.

In the beginning of the year it was Travis Ishikawa. A few days ago it was Aubrey Huff. Now, it's Downs.

It makes you wonder: "Does Bochy even realize he still has Velez on the 40-man roster?"

My answer to that: yes, but he no longer has confidence in playing him anymore.

Guys with futures on Major League teams don't get called up and demoted again in less than two days. Guys with futures on the team don't regularly get demoted to Fresno after the first month of play (which has happened to Velez the past three seasons).

Thus, it's easy to determine Velez's future with the Giants: it is only a matter of time before he's playing for another Major or Minor League team.

It's tough for Velez. He hasn't exactly had it easy while being in San Francisco. In addition to Bochy's disenchantment with playing young players (which has affected Velez in addition to John Bowker), Velez simply has had a hard time finding a position in San Francisco.

Going into Spring Training in 2009, he was expected to be in the running for the second baseman job after Ray Durham was traded away to Milwaukee in 2008. Unfortunately, he never was up to the task offensively (career .306 wOBA) or defensively (minus-16.1 UZR/150 at second base for his career).

Velez provided the Giants some versatility when he began playing more regularly in the outfield in 2009. However, despite his above-average athleticism (he has a career 13.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), his lackluster instincts (he has a minus UZR in center and right) and big time blunders (I don't think I have to remind people about the Philadelphia game) seemed to bury any reputation that he can be a regular fixture in the Giants outfield.

And what has been the nail in the coffin for Velez's future in San Francisco? Two players: Andres Torres and Fred Lewis, who is now a Blue Jay.

Look at what Torres is doing for the Giants this year. Sure, he isn't young (32 years old to be exact), but he can hit (.397 wOBA going into today's game against Arizona), run (five stolen bases) and has tremendous defensive skills (he has a UZR/150 of 49.3 this year in the outfield).

As for Lewis? He has tore it up since moving to Toronto. A lot of fans claimed that Lewis wasn't needed because Velez was just as good an option in left field, if not better.

It's funny because the "Velez is better than Lewis" claim was a moot argument to begin with. Lewis is hitting .298 and has a wOBA of .349 entering today's game. Furthermore, look at what Scott from The Crazy Crabbers said in a post after Lewis was traded to Toronto:

"Let's do a quick comparison of some triple slash lines (AVG/OBP/SLG) to see where he comes down here:

Player A: .281/.339/.449
Player B: .228/.290/.365
Player C: .277/.355/.420
Player D: .265/.306/.401
Player E: .274/.343/.423
Player F: .284/.316/.415
Player G: .245/.292/.403

These are the career numbers of Fred Lewis and the other Giants outfielders. Would it surprise you if I told you that Lewis is player C and has arguably the second best triple slash line for his career.

Here are the identities of each:

Player A: Aaron Rowand
Player B: Andres Torres
Player C: Fred Lewis
Player D: Eugenio Velez
Player E: Mark DeRosa
Player F: Nate Schierholtz
Player G: John Bowker"

Take a long gander at Velez's career slash line: .265, .306 and .401. That's worse than Lewis in every category. And yet, people at the time of Lewis' departure claimed Velez was a better option.

They seem to look foolish now, don't they?

Overall, maybe it was never meant to work out for Velez in San Francisco. After all, he was a Rule 5 draft pick from the Toronto Blue Jays in 2005, and those kinds of players usually aren't expected to have great Major League careers.

Nonetheless, Giants fans got their hopes up about Velez during Spring Training before the 2008 season when Jon Miller pointed him out as a player to watch at a team banquet in Scottsdale. Giants fans got their hopes about Velez when he went on that tear in late July and early August, which parlayed him into being the Giants' leadoff hitter for the remainder of the year. Giants fans got their hopes about Velez because he had cool nicknames like "The Pharaoh" or "Genie" (because he kind of looked like one to be frank).

Well...after this latest demotion for Velez, I think it's safe to say that Giants fans may have gotten their hopes up for nothing.

The Giants Should Wait A Little Longer To Call Up Madison Bumgarner

2010-05-18T16:33:00.000-07:00

I really, really like Madison Bumgarner. Despite the rough Spring Training, I felt talent-wise, he was the best person to pitch in the fifth spot in the rotation over Todd Wellemeyer and Kevin Pucetas. Furthermore, I was impressed by his numbers last year in his short September callup. Was he throwing gas? Not really (he only averaged 89.2 MPH on his fastball last year in his callup), but he had 10 strikeouts in 10 IP, only walked three guys and posted an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.10. That's impressive in my book.

This year, Bumgarner started off the season miserably. He struggled in Spring Training and his first two starts were disastrous, with his fastball still hovering in the mid to high 80's (Bumgarner was known for his 90-plus stuff). However, look at what 22 Gigantes said today in a blog post about Bumgarner's return to form:

"Since April 14, "MadBum" has compiled the following statistics, through six starts:

35 IP / 1.54 ERA / 0.943 WHIP / 26 K / 11 BB"

Those are impressive numbers, especially when you look at Bumgarner's current line for the season (eight games started, 42 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 32 K, 13 BB; it's shuddering to think how bad those two starts were when you put it together).

What has made Bumgarner such a success in the Pacific Coast League after such an awful start? According to Frisco Fastball, Bumgarner has added a cutter to his arsenal. One of the big knocks on Bumgarner last year was that he primarily was a two-pitch pitcher, relying heavily on his fastball and slider. That was evident in his callup last season, as he threw his fastball 64.5 percent of the time and his slider 29.7 percent of the time (he also threw a changeup 5.9 percent of the time).

Having a cutter to the mix should make Bumgarner more valuable and effective as a starting pitcher. And, with his fastball velocity apparently back, Bumgarner seems to be even more ready to make the move from Fresno to San Francisco.

That being said, the Giants should wait to pull the trigger.

If you know my stance on Buster Posey, this may come as a surprise (since I believe that not only Posey should be up, but Bengie Molina or Eli Whiteside should be dealt in order to make room for him) to some Giants fans.

However, Bumgarner is in a different situation than Posey. Additionally, Bumgarner plays a different position from Posey as well.

The latter makes all the difference.

For starters, Bumgarner is only 20 years old. He is still fresh from high school and is still learning how to pitch at the professional level. Yes, he is doing well in Fresno now, but how will he adjust when he has bad nights? It's one thing to go on a roll like this when the going is good, but what happens when that BABIP rises? What happens when he isn't striking out the house? Does Bumgarner step up to the challenge or does he fall apart?

Bumgarner has time to learn this in Triple-A because he's so young. Posey on the other hand is 23 years old and has played college baseball and 35 games in Fresno prior to this season. Posey is more developed and MLB ready than the younger, fresher Bumgarner. Sure, Posey needs more catching experience, but how's he going to learn about the Giants pitching staff if he is in Fresno?

Hence, Bumgarner and Posey are in different boats, and shouldn't be compared to each other.

Secondly, I believe the Giants should hesitate to pull the trigger on Bumgarner for another reason: the fifth spot in the rotation.

Honestly, I don't believe he is ready to handle that spot in the rotation now. Look at the difference between Jonathan Sanchez this year and Sanchez last year. Sanchez is pitching fourth and looks immensely more comfortable going against opposing teams' three, four and five starters. Last year, he struggled holding the end of the rotation, occasionally going against opposing teams' aces.

Granted, Bumgarner isn't Sanchez, but you can't risk Bumgarner losing his confidence early. Sure, he could flourish and break out, and show that the Giants have another budding ace behind the four-headed monster of Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, Matt Cain, and Sanchez, but he could also blow up, go back to Fresno with shattered confidence and never be the same again.

As a Giants fan who understands how much the Giants have invested in Bumgarner, I just don't think it's worth it, especially considering he's not extremely needed right now. The Giants problem is not starting pitching. It's offense, and that's another reason why the Giants need Posey and can afford to keep Bumgarner in Fresno for the time being.

Now, Wellemeyer isn't gong to hold the fifth spot all year. I understand that. However, the Giants have options and should exhaust those options before they thrust Bumgarner into the rotation. Eric Hacker has had a great year, as evidenced by his 6-1 record, 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Joe Martinez spent some time in the fifth spot last year, and could use a second go-around as well. And as for Pucetas? Well, I don't think he has much to offer, but you gotta see what he can do at the Majors at some point, right?

It's easy for Giants fans right now to say "Call up Bumgarner! He's killing now, like Posey, so let's bring him up while he's hot!" In my opinion, the Giants don't need to be in a rush. They have plenty of options to fill Wellemeyer's eventual spot, and the fifth spot in the rotation is not going to make the difference in a playoff berth (the difference is whether or not the Giants offense can get some consistency).

At the earliest, the Giants should callup Bumgarner in August, which would allow him to continue to develop his newly found, and effective pitch repertoire.

Giants fans will be thankful Brian Sabean and his management team waited on Bumgarner when it is all said and done (though I think the opposite will be true with Posey).

Giants 2010 Draft Prospect Spotlight: Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS

2010-05-16T22:58:00.000-07:00

With less than a month remaining until the MLB Amateur Draft 2010, I figured it would be nice to take a look at who the Giants could be looking at taking in this year's MLB Draft.

The past few years, the Giants have really made a splash in terms of picks. In 2007, they selected Madison Bumgarner (10th overall), Tim Alderson (22nd overall) and Wendell Fairley (29th overall) in the first round. In 2008, the Giants selected Buster Posey fifth overall (and gave him the largest signing bonus in club history at $6.2 million). Last year, Zach Wheeler went to the Giants at sixth overall.

How are those guys doing? Well, Alderson is gone and Fairley isn't doing so hot (though rumor has it he was drafted in the first round simply because he wasn't going to cost a lot to sign in comparison to other first rounders), but for the most part, General Manager Brian Sabean has done well these past few drafts. Bumgarner and Posey are close to MLB-ready, and Wheeler has shown some promise in Augusta (though he has been a little inconsistent...but that's to be expected from a kid right out of high school).

So what about this year's draft? Who is Sabean and the Giants scouting department looking at? The Giants have a much lower draft pick than in years past (No. 24), so it won't be as easy for the Giants to nab a Posey or Bumgarner considering their draft position. However, draft position isn't everything, and it isn't impossible to think that the Giants can nab a diamond in the rough this year.

In the coming weeks, I'll take some time to look at prospects whom the Giants may select with the 24th pick this season. The first guy I'm going to look at is Austin Wilson, an outfielder from Harvard Westlake High School in Los Angeles. Wilson, according to the blog MLB Bonus Baby, an MLB draft blog, has the Giants taking Wilson in their latest mock draft. (If you haven't checked out MLB Bonus Baby, definitely do so. It's probably the best MLB Draft blog out there.)

Why Giants Fans Should Know About Wilson

Wilson is immensely talented and considering the Giants need for offense in their system, he fits the bill nicely. Sure, the Giants are stacked at Double-A with guys like Thomas Neal, Roger Kieschnick, Darren Ford, Nick Noonan, Conor Gillaspie, Brandon Crawford and Tyler LaTorre, but when you look beyond that, things get a little more dicey.

Brandon Belt, Juan Perez and Francisco Peguero look promising in San Jose, and Ehire Adrianza sure has talent (though it is yet to be seen at the plate), but other than that, there isn't a lot of offensive power or potential going on in the Giants' California League club. In the South Atlantic League, Sharlon Schoop and Luke Anders have been solid this year, but bigger names like Chris Dominguez, Hector Sanchez, Tommy Joseph, and Evan Crawford haven't been as spectacular as Giants fans hoped going into the 2010 season.

Wilson, an outfielder who has made a commitment to Stanford University, not only will get an opportunity to shine in the Giants system, but certainly could have an impact as early as his rookie season.

Much like Neal, Ford and even Fairley, the prep prospect from Los Angeles has a lot of tools and skills as a player. Wilson's plus qualities seem to be his arm and his power. Last year, in 23 games as a junior at Harvard-Westlake, he hit .543 with five home runs, 29 RBI and scored 33 runs. His impact as a junior was so immense that he was the subject of a profile piece on ESPN Rise in February.

Keith Law has also jumped on the Wilson bandwagon, calling Wilson "probably the best prospect" in attendance at the Southern California Invitational in February. Why would Law say that? Watch him hit and you can see the reason behind Law's vote of confidence.

Physically, Wilson is a specimen. Currently, he is listed at 6'4 200 pounds, and he plays in a very competitive baseball environment in Southern California. However, it is not just all brawn with this kid. Wilson apparently has great personality and is very coachable according to scouts. Additionally, he has a strong GPA at Harvard-Westlake, which happens to be a very competitive academic school, and he was accepted to Stanford. Even for athletes, that is not an easy feat to do.

According to his scouting report on MLB.com, Wilson draw comparisons to Michael Taylor, Vlad Guerrero and John Mayberry Jr. According to MLB Fantasy Prospects writer Lawrence Dushenski, Wilson seems to be comparable to Moises Alou (a former Giant).

Whatever player you want to compare him to, this is certain: Wilson certainly has the mold of a future MLB player.

Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Wilson

First off, players with lots of tools in the Wilson-mold are very hit or miss. For the most part, they take a lot of time to develop and, as we have seen from guys like Fairely, rarely live up to as advertised. Wilson, despite his athleticism and strength, suffers from the same problems a lot of "tools" prospects suffer from: lack of plate discipline and pitch recognition, and a lot of his skills are still in need of refinement.

The biggest concern though may simply be his draft status. A smart kid with educated parents, Wilson isn't a lock to sign even if he is drafted in the first round. After all, Wilson could be playing for a very sturdy baseball program in Stanford, and he could use the college coaching and the time to better refine his skills. Hence, considering Wilson's signing status is so uncertain, the Giants may pass on him, simply because they do not want to get burned by wasting a first round pick on a guy who is dead set on playing college baseball.

Verdict on Wilson

Personally, I really like what I see from Wilson. The guy is an incredible physical specimen and can seriously hit for power. Just watching him slam that home run at Wrigley with a wooden bat was a sight to be seen. Also, he seems to have a good, level head on his shoulders, which I think can go a long way.

Yes, he needs to polish up his skills. Yes, he is still far away from being MLB-ready, but the Giants have a good history of drafting guys with tools (Fred Lewis for example). If Wilson is serious in terms of progressing to the Major League level, then I would have no problem with Sabean and the Giants pulling the trigger on him if he is available at No. 24.

Aaron Rowand No Longer A Viable Leadoff Option for the Giants

2010-05-14T22:55:00.000-07:00

Aaron Rowand may have a good year and capitalize on that "Great every three years" cycle a lot of Giants fans have bought into. Baseball fans saw it in 2004 in Chicago (.388 wOBA) and in 2007 in Philadelphia (.382 wOBA). Maybe Giants fans will see something similar from Rowand in 2010.

He's off to a good, though not great start so far. While Rowand has hit four home runs this year in 95 plate appearances, his batting average dipped to .266 after tonight's 8-2 win over the Houston Astros and his OBP fell to .310.

Rowand may still have a breakout year for the Giants. That being said, I don't believe that "big" season will happen with him batting leadoff for this team.

First off, Rowand isn't and never was a leadoff hitter. The Giants panicked and gave him the spot because, after Spring Training ended, they had no other reasonable options at leadoff. As Giants fans, we could live with Rowand batting first simply because nobody else looked better in comparison. (Seriously, Edgar Renteria and his .307 OBP in 2009 was perhaps the second best option to bat leadoff on Opening Day).

However, this isn't Opening Day anymore. The Giants have just finished game 26 of the season. Is it the midway point? No, but it certainly has been long enough to tell what has been working and what hasn't this year for the Giants.

Rowand certainly fits in the latter category.

First off, leadoff hitters need to have one of two things in order to be effective:

1.) Tremendous speed or base stealing ability.
2.) A high propensity to draw walks or get on-base.

In terms of point number one, speed can make up for a hitter's poor plate discipline. Look at Willy Taveras, who has a career OBP of .320 and a career walk percentage of 5.1 percent. Why did he bat leadoff for every team he played for in his career until this season? Because Taveras stole over 30 bases from 2005-2008, and 25 bases in 2009 (and to put it in perspective, he had a .275 OBP for the Reds in 2009).

Rowand doesn't have that speed. Rowand has only 60 stolen bases in his career. Taveras had 68 stolen bases in 2008 ALONE.

So, if Rowand can't steal bases, he must be a good on-base guy, right? A "milk the pitcher and draw some walks" guy in the mold of Kosuke Fukudome?

Not exactly either.

Rowand has a career average walk percentage of 5.7 percent. This season, he has been below his career average, as evidenced by his 3.2 percent walk percentage so far in 2010. Now, while his strikeout rate is 17.8 percent, the first time it has been under 20 percent since 2007, his BB/K ratio is still far from impressive at 0.19. Rowand's BB/K ratios the past two years in San Francisco haven't been much better either, as it was 0.24 last year and 0.35 in 2008 (the league average is usually around 0.50).

Also, the big knock on Rowand has been his plate discipline, and this year he has showed more of the same. After swinging at 32.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone last season (seven points more than the league average), he has been even worse this year, swinging at 42.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone.

Therefore, Rowand does not fit either category in terms of being a successful leadoff hitter. I know manager Bruce Bochy likes Rowand, and wants Rowand to get comfortable at a spot in the lineup, but leadoff simply isn't it. The more Rowand bats leadoff for the Giants, the less chance they have of making the playoffs. I do not think any Giants fan can argue with that sentiment.

So who do the Giants bat at leadoff?

I suggest two scenarios.

1.) Andres Torres (the main one).
2.) Nate Schierholtz (the secondary one).

In terms of the first option, it makes the most sense. Torres, who has stepped up this year and proved that 2009 wasn't a fluke so far, fits both categories of a successful leadoff hitter. He has good speed (he has four stolen bases this year) and he has shown a strong ability to draw walks and get on base as well (he has a 14.8 percent walk percentage, a 1.00 BB/K ratio and a .398 OBP). Furthermore, unlike Rowand, Torres has proven to be patient in the batter's box. While Torres has cut down on his swings at the plate this year (42.8 percent swing percentage), he has swung at less pitches outside the strike zone (20.6 percent).

Torres not only deserves to be batting leadoff whenever he is in the lineup, but he deserves more playing time as well. While taking playing time away from Rowand will be a challenge, if unrealistic (simply because of his contract and clout with Bochy and Sabean), he certainly deserves to be playing more games in left field, especially if Mark Derosa's wrist doesn't fully recover this year.

However, while I agree that he deserves to be playing MORE, I do not think he should be the permanent left fielder for the remainder of the year. If anything, some kind of platoon needs to be worked out with John Bowker in left field. Bowker still has potential. His walk rate is the highest its been in his Major League career (9.2 percent) and his HR/FB rate (15.4 percent) shows that he has power potential. BowkerwOBA and 27.6 percent strikeout percentage don't help), but with Derosa hurt, this should be an opportunity for Giants management to give Bowker more at-bats.

The best scenario, in my mind, would be for some kind of 60-40 split (or at the very least, 70-30) between Torres and Bowker in terms of playing time in left field with Derosa out and likely heading to the DL. If they don't do it now, they might as well just send Bowker to Fresno because he isn't going to get any other opportunities considering how crowded this outfield is.

If Bowker does get the opportunity of playing every few days (and that's a big IF), then Schierholtz (who has earned the starting right field job after a great start) should bat leadoff for the Giants when Bowker is starting in left.

Schierholtz isn't a typical leadoff hitter. Unlike Rowand though, he has shown improvement this year in drawing walks and being more patient at the plate. His walk percentage is 7.4 percent this year and his BB/K ratio is 0.70 (it was 0.28 last year and 0.38 in 2008). Additionally, he has been more efficient at the plate, swinging at less pitches outside the strikezone (26 percent, a nine point drop from the previous season), while making better contact to boot (85.9 percent contact rate; an 8.2 percent improvement from 2009).

Surprisingly, Schierholtz has some speed as well. This year he has stolen three bases in four attempts. (He had only three stolen bases all of last year!) It wouldn't be surprising to see Schierholtz to steal 10-15 bases this year if given regular playing time. Is that Taveras base stealing ability? No, but it's efficient, and certainly better than what Rowand has to offer.

The Giants solution at leadoff? Drop Rowand in the lineup (six or seven would be a great fit), make Torres the leadoff when he's in the lineup, and when Bowker is replacing him in left field every few days or so, move Schierholtz up to the one spot.

It sounds easy enough, and there is a prime opportunity to instill this plan with Derosa going to be on the shelf.

The main question though is whether or not Bochy and Sabean will have the moxie to make the move. (Knowing Bochy and his history as Giants manager, my gut says no...unfortunately.)

"May"-Hem: One Frustrating Week for Giants Baseball Fans

2010-05-12T23:12:00.000-07:00

The Giants still have a chance to come out with a win from the Padres in this series. I'm trying to stay that optimistic. Jonathan Sanchez is on the hill, and for some reason, I have that feeling that Sanchez will deal and help the Giants avoid an 0-6 start to the season against the Friars. After all, he's pitched somewhat well in the past against the Padres.

However, this isn't about the series against the Padres solely. It goes beyond that. The Giants so far this week have been frustrating the living daylights out of us fans. Here are some reasons why:

The Giants' Ineptitude Against the Padres This Series

Check out the game graphs from yesterday and today's losses on Fangraphs.

I'm sorry. That sucks. It sucks because when you look at the graphs, you realize we just have gone downhill and haven't clawed back in the slightest this series against a team that we are better on paper against. (At home nonetheless!) It sucks to see the Padres doing the damage this series, and it's guys like Jerry Hairston Jr. and Yorvit "I can't hit against anybody but the Giants" Torrealba.

Ugh...I'm getting sick to my stomach. Looking at these graphs makes me feel like the Duke brothers at the end of "Trading Places."

Brian Sabean Saying "Triple-A" Doesn't Matter

I hate Sabean. I hated him before and I hate him even more after he made some asinine comments in an article by San Jose Mercury Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly in regard to the prospect of bringing up Buster Posey. Here's a "gem of wisdom" from the longest tenured general manager in Major League Baseball.

"Triple-A baseball isn't very good," Sabean said. "I'm going to tell you that right now. Especially from a pitching standpoint. Anybody who can pitch is in the big leagues."

Lunacy. Sabean makes absolute no sense and ends up sounding not only like an idiot, but a blowhard idiot to boot. (And I'm not the only one saying it's dumb either.)

Look...we get it Sabes. You don't want bring up Posey and mess up the arbitration process like you did with Tim Lincecum. We know you can't say that to the media. However, you have reasonable excuses. Say you're "Behind Bengie and Eli (or "Whitey" as Bruce Bochy likes to call him) for the time being." Say "Posey could use half a season working with Madison Bumgarner."

But to say "Triple-A baseball isn't very good?" Come on. You know you aren't going to win that argument, and you just make the Giants organization and Giants fans look foolish.

I wish I could write pieces like this about Sabean, but it's times like this that prove time and time again why Sabean is such an overrated (and over-employed) general manager.

Bengie Molina: "Mr. Outspoken."

I really like Bengie. I do. He's the best catcher we've had in a Giants uniform since Bob Brenly and he is a great clubhouse guy that has worked well with our pitching staff. Furthermore, it is very hard to find a decent hitting catcher these days, let alone a good one like Molina, so you have to feel, as a Giants fan, we've been pretty lucky these past three-plus years.

Yet, Molina seems to be wearing out his welcome with the Giants. First off, he hasn't made things easy with the Posey situation (apparently, he's "frustrated" with how it's being handled). Secondly, on his personal blog, Behind the Mask, he went on a bit of a tirade against ESPN, which poked fun at his speed (or lack thereof) on Sportscenter. Here's a little tidbit from his post today:

"Look, you can say I'm the slowest guy in baseball or in all of sports or in the entire world. I don't take issue with that because I AM the slowest guy. I have always been the slowest guy. I can't challenge that criticism. But ESPN's intention was not to criticize but to humiliate."

I'm sorry Bengie, but I just got to disagree with you on these two things. First off, I know you're ticked that you didn't get offered more money this off-season. I know you got screwed over by the Mets, and you deserve to be angry. But nobody forced you to sign this off-season with the Giants. Heck, even Giants management implored you to not sign with the Giants. You knew Posey was the catcher of the future and still, you signed anyway. You don't have any excuse or leeway to complain about this.

In terms of point two, it's ESPN. Everybody gets made fun of there. What else did you expect? Have you watched Sportscenter the past ten years? That's just the nature of how the show is. Furthermore, if you don't want anymore criticism (I saw the telecast, it's really not that bad) then don't attract any attention to yourself. Nobody would have remembered the slow-mo of you running home beyond today, but because you brought it up, it'll be talked for at least a few more. Let sleeping dogs lie Bengie. ESPN poking fun at you for something you know to be pretty obvious is nothing to cry "murder" over. It could have been worse.

Mark Derosa's Wrist Problems

Another reason for my dislike of Sabean. He commits $24 million this off-season to Mark Derosa and Freddy Sanchez. What happens? Sanchez begins the year on the Disabled List because of off-season knee surgery, and now, Derosa claims that his wrist surgery this off-season was a "total failure" in an article in the San Jose Mercury.

DeRosa said he "didn't feel great" when he started to hit before Giants camp opened, "but I just figured that was part of coming back from wrist surgery. And in spring training, you can kind of dance around it. You can feel good and get a couple of windblown doubles in the gap, and everybody thinks you're ready to go."

That's awesome. Not only did Sabean sign one guy with injury problems (simply because he needed to save face after trading away Tim Alderson), it appears that he signed two this off-season (three if you count Edgar Renteria the previous season). What makes this even better? Remember '51's boy Fred Lewis is doing serious damage in Toronto. Here's what he's doing with the Blue Jays:

1.) Batting leadoff (something Giants fans said "He couldn't do.")
2.) Hitting .296 with a .813 OPS, 10 doubles, 13 RBI, 14 R and 3 SB.
3.) Being clutch (wonder how the guys at Bleacher Report feel about this article now) and winning Blue Jays fans over (Bluebird Banter said that it would be a travesty if Lewis is taken out of the lineup in favor of a Edwin Encarnacion at third, Jose Bautista in the outfield, lineup when Encarnacion returns).

But I guess we just had to sign Derosa, right?

Molina, Whiteside or Posey: What Course Do the Giants Take?

2010-05-11T11:34:00.000-07:00

It was supposed to be the Buster Posey era in San Francisco in 2010. The highly-touted draft pick from Florida State that signed the largest draft bonus in club history was supposed to be taking his position behind the plate on Opening Day this year, working with arguably one of the best pitching staffs in the Major Leagues, and helping the Giants in their quest to make the playoffs for the first time since 2003.

Well, the pitching staff is still doing well (at least the starting pitching anyways), and the Giants are still in the hunt in the NL West (they enter a three game series against the first-place San Diego Padres today), but Posey is in Fresno, playing in ballparks all across the Pacific Coast League rather than the National League.

What happened?

You could contribute a lot of things really. Bengie Molina overestimating his value on the market (he turned down a two-year deal from the Mets because he wanted more money, only the Mets pulled the deal on him at the last minute and decided to go with Rod Barajas instead). Bruce Bochy's undying love for "veterans." Brian Sabean second-guessing himself.

Whatever the specific (or combination of) reason(s), the fact remains this: Molina and Eli Whiteside are in the Majors, and Posey is not and it's a shame.

Why is it a shame? Look at Posey's stats. He's proven so far in 2010 that he's too good for the PCL. In 30 games, Posey is hitting .345 with five home runs, 21 RBI and has an OPS of .994. Furthermore, it's not just his offense that has been impressive either. Posey has a caught stealing rate of 50 percent so far this year, and the Fresno Grizzlies pitching staff and team has flourished. The Grizzlies have the seventh-best team ERA in the PCL, and the Grizzlies are currently 20-11, the best record in the PCL.

Posey is ready for the Major Leagues. All he needs is the opportunity.

And that is the problem. There isn't one for him right now.

First off, Molina is doing well. He is hitting .333, has an OPS of .859 and a wOBA of .376. What has been most impressive about Molina has been his improved approach at the plate. After posting BB/K ratios of 0.28, 0.50 (actually pretty good for him) and 0.19 the last three years as a Giant, his BB/K ratio sits at 0.88 currently. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but it's a promising number, especially considering that Molina drawing a walk last year was about as rare as a good Tori Spelling show/movie/project post "90210".

What has been so key in Molina's approach? Swinging less and swinging less outside the strike zone. Last year, Molina swung at 59.5 percent of pitches and 43.9 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. This season? He has only swung 44.7 percent of the time and has only swung at 30.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone this year. The more patient approach has paid off, as he has made better contact at the plate (he has an 88.4 percent contact rate this year in comparison to an 81.4 percent contract rate last year) and has gotten on base more (.402 OBP).

Molina though, despite his solid start, isn't perfect. Bochy has inserted him back in the lineup in cleanup hole, but he may be less suited for that role this season. While he has hit more line drives this year (20.4 percent), his HR/FB ratio is dramatically down at 5.3 percent. The lowest it has been as a Giant was in 2008, when it was 6.8 percent. Granted, Molina could improve that ratio and hit more home runs (since he is still hitting the ball in the air over 50 percent of the time), but at his age, that seems less likely, and thus, he seems less qualified to be the Giants' number four hitter in 2010.

Molina isn't the only blockade for Posey, however. Whiteside surprisingly has gotten off to a good start as well, which gives Sabean and Bochy even more of an excuse to keep Posey in Fresno. Whiteside is hitting .333 with two home runs in 35 plate appearances and has an OPS of 1.061 and a wOBA of .453. Additionally, Whiteside has a great reputation working with the Giants pitching staff, especially Jonathan Sanchez, who has had gotten off to very solid start in 2010.

Unlike Molina though, Whiteside's other numbers are far less impressive, and he seems to be more of a fluke this season than anything. His BB/K ratio in 35 plate appearances is 0.29. While that is an improvement from his BB/K ratio last season (when it was 0.17), it is still far from league average (which is 0.51 this year). Sure, Whiteside should be commended for his plate approach (he has only swung at 18.1 percent of pitches outside the strikezone this season), but he simply doesn't draw enough walks (5.7 percent this year, and ZiPS projects that he'll end up with a walk rate of 4.5 percent) and doesn't make good enough contact at the plate (74.5 percent contact rate) to merit regular playing time.

So, the Giants have three solid catcher who are all performing well. What should they do?

I know it sounds crazy, but the Giants seriously should think about shopping Molina. Already, he seems to be restless in San Francisco after not getting a better deal this off-season, and he seems to be pulling a "Brett Favre" (e.g. threatening retirement) by remarking that he is not keen on splitting time with Posey as well. If he is putting up solid numbers still by June and July, he would be a very valuable asset to a team like Boston or Seattle, a team that seriously needs a catcher. That way, the Giants not only get to promote Posey and give him his deserved shot, but they could get something of value in return. Molina may not generate as much value as in years past, but he is still a solid commodity that could earn one or two lower-tier prospects in return (which would be refreshing to see considering its the Giants always GIVING AWAY prospects during this season).

As for Whiteside? Keep him on as long as he's doing well, and then either a.) have him backup Posey when/if Molina is gone or b.) cut ties with him altogether. Seriously, I know Whiteside is a great story, but like I said before, history shows that he isn't a Major League catcher (and many people are in line with this thought as well).

This is all theory of course, but knowing Sabean and his "thoughts" on Posey and Triple-A, I doubt all this will happen. It's more likely to see a sixth season of "The Wire" than Molina traded away and Whiteside released to make room for Posey.

Giants Baseball: Where Blocking and Jettisoning Promising Players Happens!

Matt Downs Another Wrench in Freddy Sanchez's Impending Return

2010-05-06T14:09:00.000-07:00

It will only be a matter of time before Freddy Sanchez returns to the Giants active roster. AZ Giants.com has been covering his rehab games, and for the most part, it seems Sanchez is slowly getting closer to being game ready.

Going into today's game against the Marlins, the Giants are 16-10 and tied with the San Diego Padres for first place in the National League West. However, there is one question lingering on the minds of Giants fans amidst this recent surge of early season success:

What will the Giants do in order to make space for Sanchez?

It's a question Giants fans dread more than Elisabeth Hasselbeck meeting Erin Andrews in person for an interview.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post that looked at the second base situation between Sanchez and Juan Uribe. Basically, I liked Uribe more at the position, and felt that Uribe's power potential is something the Giants need.

However, the second base position is not just between Uribe and Sanchez anymore. You can add another guy to the mix that will make Sanchez's return all the much tougher:

That guy is Matt Downs.

Now, Downs isn't necessarily an unknown name. While he struggled in an early-season callup last year, Downs came on strong this Spring Training, hitting .356 in 45 at-bats. Due to a crowded infield situation, he started the year in Fresno, though he really had nothing to prove in the Pacific Coast League (.300 average, .834 OPS and 14 home runs in 2009).

In Fresno this season, Downs played strong, despite competing for playing time at second base with Brock Bond (who is hitting .310 with a .405 OBP this season with the Grizzlies). In 35 at-bats, Downs hit .286 with a .876 OPS.

After Aaron Rowand went on the 15-Day disabled list, Downs got the callup in what was expected to be a short cup of coffee stint. However, he has made a strong case that he may deserve some more playing time in the Giants infield.

In 29 plate appearances with the Giants, Downs is hitting .417 with four doubles and one home run. He sports an OPS of 1.226 and a wOBA of .523.

Hence, it is easy to see why the Giants were able to part ways with Kevin Frandsen after Spring Training.

That being said, what is Downs' future with the Giants this season? Do the Giants keep him and send down John Bowker (though he has nothing to prove in Fresno) or designate Eugenio Velez for assignment? Do they send down Downs and bring him up later in the year should Edgar Renteria get injured again? (Which is a strong possibility by the way.) Do the Giants finally cut ties with Travis Ishikawa? (Who has been a tremendous disappointment offensively this year, much to my dismay.)

Whatever the Giants do, they certainly have an interesting talent in Downs.

In the minors, Downs pretty much has been a Kevin Frandsen but with power. At four levels in the minors, Downs has posted a BB/K ratio as high as 1.89 (in Rookie League) and as low as 0.40 (his first season in Triple-A). That's pretty solid, and it looks even better when you see that he hasn't had a history of striking out a lot in the minors too (his highest strikeout percentage was 13.7 percent in Fresno last year).

Now, that hasn't been the case for Downs in the Majors. Last year, in 60 plate appearances, Downs had a strikeout percentage of 24.5 percent. The same has rung true this season too, illustrated by his 20.8 percent strikeout rate.

However, while the strikeouts have risen in the Majors, the walks have as well. In 2009, Downs sported a walk percentage of 10 percent (the highest percentage he had was 8.7 percent in rookie ball). This year, Downs has a walk rate of 13.8 percent.

This has produced solid BB/K ratios for Downs (0.46 and 0.80 respectively) in the Majors, which makes him a valuable commodity for this Giants team.

If you compare him to Sanchez and Uribe on plate discipline alone, Downs looks enticing. Sanchez's career BB/K ratio is 0.43 (0.29 last year in a combined stint with Pittsburgh and San Francisco) and Uribe's is 0.30. Down's BB/K ratio at the Major League level so far is 0.56.

Now, in terms of defense, Sanchez has the reputation of being a great defensive second baseman. However, if you look at the numbers from last season, he might not be much better than Uribe or Downs.

While Sanchez posted a UZR of 3.3, his UZR/150 was only 5.0. Uribe posted a 3.3 UZR as well at second base, but his UZR/150 was 16.1.

As for Downs, he had the lowest UZR of the three at 1.1 last year. His UZR/150 though? 10.0.

Sanchez's return to the Giants lineup is a touchy issue. It makes some sense financially why he will be the Giants' starting second baseman when he returns off the DL. General Manager Brian Sabean traded Tim Alderson for him last season, and he signed Sanchez to a two-year $12 million deal this off-season. The Giants have a lot invested in him, and unfortunately, you can't bench guys like that.

That being said, does Sanchez offer much more at the position than what the Giants currently have? He doesn't have the offensive potential of Uribe, and he doesn't have the youth or plate patience of Downs. Sure he has a Gold Glove and a couple of All-Star games on his resume, but when you look at his defensive metrics, Sanchez isn't THAT impressive.

Overall, it's a tough decision for the Giants management. When Sanchez returns, somebody is going to lose badly on this Giants roster, be it Uribe, Downs, Bowker, Velez, Ishikawa, or even Sanchez himself.

Whatever happens, all you can hope as a Giants fan is that the Giants' chemistry isn't messed up when Sanchez returns to the starting lineup. Considering how promising this team looks and the opportunity they have (With the Rockies struggling with injuries and the Dodgers being down), you would hate to see it all screwed up because the Giants needed to play a guy because of his contract.

Is Waldis Joaquin Entering Alex Hinshaw Territory?

2010-05-05T15:27:00.000-07:00

So far, this year, it has been an up and down season for the Giants bullpen. Some guys have gotten off to good starts, but have imploded on some big moments (e.g. Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo). Some guys have been a shell of who they were last season (e.g. Brandon Medders and Jeremy Affeldt). And some guys...well...they have been pretty good (e.g. Dan Runzler and Guillermo Mota).

Overall, I deeply believe the Giants have the best bullpen in the National League West...though not statistically at the present moment. They are behind Colorado (second) and San Diego (third) in terms of team bullpen ERA in the Majors (Colorado has a 2.58 ERA; San Diego sports a 2.65 ERA), but the Giants are not that far behind considering how early it is in the season (the Giants are seventh and have a bullpen ERA of 3.20).

Lost in the shuffle though of the Romos, Wilsons and Affeldts in the bullpen however is Waldis Joaquin.

For those who don't know, Joaquin was recently optioned to Triple-A Fresno after Aaron Rowand returned off his stint on the 15-day disabled list.

It makes sense from a Giants management perspective. Wilson, Romo, Mota, Runzler, Affeldt and Medders are way ahead of Joaquin in terms of standing in the bullpen, and Joaquin hasn't really lived up to his potential either this season.

In 4.2 IP, Joaquin sports a 9.64 ERA, a 2.79 WHIP and has allowed six hits and seven walks. To make matters worse, Joaquin, a flamethrower who averaged 96.2 MPH last year and 94.4 MPH on his fastball this year, hasn't struck out many batters. After striking out 12 batters in 10 IP in a short callup in 2009, Joaquin has only managed to punch out two batters.

Those numbers have produced god awful K/9 and BB/K ratios (3.86 and 0.29, respectively) which makes most sabermetrics and baseball fans shudder.

And what makes things worse? His stats eerily look similar to another "hard-throwing pitcher with command-problems reliever" from last year: Alex Hinshaw.

After a solid 2008 season with the Giants where he appeared in 48 games and posted an ERA of 3.40 and a K/9 of 10.66, Hinshaw absolutely struggled in short action with the Giants bullpen in 2009. Hinshaw gave up 10 hits and allowed 8 runs and 7 walks in 6 IP.

With already a solid staff in the Giants' 2009 bullpen, it came as no surprise why Hinshaw spent the majority of the season in Fresno (he pitched 46 games for the Grizzlies).

Could the same happen to Joaquin in 2010?

It is possible. Hitters have found a tremendously easy ability to find a hit against Joaquin, as evidenced by his .350 BABIP this season. Hinshaw suffered through the same problem in his nine appearances in 2009. His BABIP was .349.

However, while they share similar strand rates (Joaquin has a 57.1 percent strand rate so far; Hinshaw had a 63.4 percent strand rate), there is something that Joaquin is better at doing than Hinshaw: inducing groundballs.

Hinshaw is not a groundball pitcher. In his two stints in San Francisco, Hinshaw posted GB/FB rates of 0.48 and 0.58. What makes this ratio even worse is that when hitters hit fly balls against Hinshaw, they have made them count. The past two seasons, Hinshaw's HR/FB rate has been 10 percent (2008) and 16.7 percent (2009).

This doesn't seem to be the problem with Joaquin. Last year, Joaquin posted a GB/FB ratio of 3.60. This year? That ratio had improved to 5.00. Granted, Joaquin has allowed more line drives this season than Hinshaw did in 2009 (25 percent to 17.4 percent), but hitters haven't made Joaquin pay too badly when it comes to fly balls this year (Joaquin hasn't given up a homer this year, and he only allowed one last year).

Thus, that is why I am more optimistic that Joaquin can bounce back after a short tenure with the Grizzlies than Hinshaw (and I don't necessarily hate Hinshaw either). Look at the game logs for 2010 for Joaquin and 2009 for Hinshaw. Joaquin looks much better than Hinshaw, and in the grand scheme of things, Joaquin wasn't all that terrible. What really sealed the deal (e.g. being demoted) for Joaquin was the April 16th opener against the Dodgers. Check out his pitch F/X for that game:

What did all that wildness produce? Four walks, two hits, two earned runs in two innings pitched. Yikes. That is about as good as Josh Hartnett's performance in the "Black Dahlia."

Granted, his performance against the Braves (1.2 IP, two walks, two hits, three runs allowed) was pretty bad too. But it was only two performances. Is Joaquin capable of having bad performances like the ones against Los Angeles and Atlanta? Sure, but he is also capable of having solid performances, like his debut against the Astros on April 6th (12 strikes thrown, 4 balls thrown, 0.2 IP, 1 strikeout).

Is Joaquin entering that "Promising for a bit, but now falling back to earth" phase that Hinshaw drudged through in 2009? Perhaps, but I don't believe Giants fans should throw in the towel and say "Joaquin is the next Merkin Valdez!" just yet.

I think Joaquin making the Opening Day roster was a premature decision by general manager Brian Sabean (he has only pitched 10 innings at the Triple-A level). With some more experience and tuning of his command in Fresno (he has only thrown 45.3 percent of his pitches for strikes this year) , I don't think it's out of the question to see Joaquin back up my August, ready to contribute to the Giants bullpen once again.

"Around the Candlestick": New Blog Additions, LALA Land, Dave Roberts, Lewis and Jays Update

2010-05-04T16:48:00.000-07:00

It's been a while since I have done one of these, so I figure it's time. Two quick points before I start this edition of "Around the Candlestick":

1.) Interested to see how this road trip will go (I am always nervous when we play the Marlins).

2.) Disappointing that the Cleveland Cavs might actually lose in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Celtics could have pulled out game one and they annihilated in game two, and that was in Cleveland. LeBron (who is my favorite NBA player) may just be one of those players who might be jinxed in terms of winning a title (e.g. John Stockton, Karl Malone, Baron Davis...okay not Baron).

New Additions to the Giants Blogroll

There are some new faces to the Blogroll here at Remember '51. Crazy Crabbers, Grizzlies-Baseball, 22 Gigantes, Keith's Sports Journal, Bay Area Sports Guy and Golden Gate Giants are all new arrivals to the blogroll since the last edition of Around the Candlestick. Must say, they are all impressive blogs. Definitely check them out if you're looking for more Giants news and commentary.

Dodgerhater in Los Angeles and at Dodger Stadium

The Dodgerhater (run by Dan Pera) recently was in LA and visited Chavez Ravine. It's safe to say that he didn't enjoy his trip very much. He provides a good little diary of a Dodger game he went to and how the Dodgers and their fans (whom I don't like even more after this...I mean, c'mon! How many times do you catch a game ball?) tested his patience every step of the way. If you aren't familiar with the Dodgerhater blog and his feelings about the Bums, well...let's just say there's about as much love between them as Tito Ortiz and Jenna Jameson.

Good stuff, as always, from the Dodgerhater blog.

Dave Roberts Diagnosed With Lymphoma

I know on this blog I can be hard on guys. I criticize management (Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy) and players (Eugenio Velez and Aaron Rowand) all the time. That being said, despite my avid biases of players and people within the Giants organization, I am human.

Roberts may not have turned out well as a Giant. He unfortunately was given too big of a contract and he was simply near the end of the road in his career to produce much. It simply proved to be an unfortunate match of Roberts and the Giants, and one in a long line of Sabean's "not so great moves" as general manager.

However, Roberts definitely deserves some thoughts and support as he goes through treatment of Hodgkin's lymphoma. Despite never really panning out on the field, Roberts was a class act off of it and he deserves nothing but positive hope right now from Giants nation.

Fred Lewis and Blue Jays Update

If you haven't checked out the Blue Jays blogroll on the Remember '51 page, definitely do so. It may not be the Giants, but the Jays blogs really are pretty cool to check out. My personal favorite is 1 Blue Jays Way, which was one of the first Blue Jays blogs I started to follow, pre-Fred Lewis trade/giveaway.

Speaking of Fred, how's he doing so far as a Jay? Well, not awesome, but he's starting to turn it around and he's getting consistent playing time, which is something you can't say he'd be getting this season in San Francisco.

Lewis' statline after 15 games: .232 batting average, .290 OBP, nine runs scored, five RBI, and three stolen bases. Lewis has struck out a lot (17 K's) and he hasn't backed it up with a lot of walks either (0.24 BB/K ratio), but the last few games, it seems as if he has really gotten comfortable at the plate. Already in today's game against the Indians, he has a hit, a walk and scored the Jays' first run in two at-bats.

It makes you, as a Giants fan, really wonder. The Jays are 14-13, and need every little bit to compete in the AL East. And yet, they hit Lewis leadoff (something Giants fans said he couldn't do) and manager Cito Gaston seems to be patient in terms of giving Lewis (and others like Travis Snider and Jose Bautista) a chance.

I know Jays fans may hate me saying this, but I would rather have Gaston managing ball games than Bochy. If Bochy was managing the Jays, Lewis and Snider would have been buried already for free agent Eric Byrnes. (Because...as we know...Byrnes is a "gamer" and a "veteran.")

Alex Gordon a Giant? A Good or Bad Idea?

2010-05-03T12:36:00.000-07:00

I'm very interested in the news about Alex Gordon getting sent down to Omaha this weekend. In many ways, it is a peculiar move by Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (who may be on par with Brian Sabean in terms of general managing ineffectiveness).

Gordon started the year on the disabled list and has only played in 12 games and had 38 plate appearances this season. However, while his batting average (.194) or wOBA (.299) aren't that impressive, Gordon does have an OBP of .342 and a BB/K ratio of 0.88.

What has been the problem for Gordon this year? Two things really.

1.) He hasn't gotten very lucky in terms of finding hits (.227 BABIP).
2.) The infield in Kansas City is extremely crowded. (Gordon is competing with Chris Getz, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo...yes, that's one DEEP infield baseball fans!)

In terms of point number two, in my opinion, Gordon is a better option than Getz, Betancourt and Bloomquist (and perhaps better than Aviles). However, that doesn't seem to be an opinion Moore shares, as evidenced by Gordon's demotion.

Hence, the debate amongst the baseball world is whether or not Moore is going to trade Gordon. Considering he's only 26 years old, Gordon still has some value, even if it isn't quite as high as it was when he was deemed the No. 2 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America before the 2007 season.

So, with Gordon maybe available, that begs Bay Area baseball fans to ask this question: should Sabean and the Giants pull a trade with Kansas City for the young third baseman? (If you don't think that's a possibility, you might be mistaken, as this is already a hot topic in the Giants blogosphere.)

Let's look at the positives and negatives of this "hypothetical" deal.

Positives

1.) Gordon's Plate Patience

Like I said before, Gordon is posting a BB/K ratio of 0.88. He has seven walks (which would tie him for fourth on this current Giants team) in 38 plate appearances (in comparison, Edgar Renteria, who also has seven walks, has earned those totals in 84 plate appearances).

Over his career, Gordon has shown a patient eye at the plate. Last season, despite dealing with injury most of the season, and only posting a .232 average and a .321 wOBA, he had a 0.49 BB/K ratio (which would have been sixth best on last year's Giants roster in term of players with 50 or more plate appearances). In 2008, his second full big-league season, he posted a 0.55 BB/K ratio.

The only season where he struggled in terms of plate patience was his first full rookie season in 2007, when he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.30. However, since that rookie year, Gordon has honed his approach, mainly by cutting down on swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. In 2007 and 2008, Gordon only swung at 24.1 and 24.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (the league average was 25.4 and 25.1 percent, respectively).

This season? He has been even better, as his O-Swing percentage stands at 19.8 percent. This season, nobody on the Giants roster with 20 or more plate appearances has an O-Swing percentage under 20 percent (Andres Torres has the best percentage at 20.9 percent). The only guy who had an O-Swing percentage under 20 percent last year (Fred Lewis, who had a 19.4 percent O-Swing percentage) is now a Toronto Blue Jay.

2.) Gordon is developing his power.

In 2008, Gordon posted his best offensive season. He hit .260 with a .351 OBP and hit 16 home runs and scored 72 runs. His wOBA was .344 and he had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) value of 2.3.

However, he only had a HR/FB rate of 8.9 percent in 2008.

In 2009, he had a much worse statistical season. His wOBA was .321 and he hit only six home runs in 189 plate appearances. However, his HR/FB rate dramatically improved to 12.0 percent in 2009, despite dealing with injury and ineffectiveness all season.

This season has been very similar. Despite dealing with injury and being flip-flopped in and out of the roster, Gordon has hit one home run, which puts his HR/FB ratio at 11.1 percent this season (he has hit nine fly balls and six line drives in comparison to eight groundballs).

Sure, the numbers don't look as good in 2009 or in 2010 as they did in 2008. But Gordon is developing power. All he needs is more at-bats.

Negatives

1.) Gordon strikes out a lot.

Despite a strong ability to draw a walk, Gordon unfortunately strikes out a good amount. From 2007 through 2010, his strikeout percentage has been 25.2 percent, 24.3 percent, 26.2 percent, and 25.8 percent. All those totals were higher than the league average each season.

Furthermore, Gordon isn't exactly strong in terms of making contact. From 2007 through 2010, his contact rate has ranged from 75.4 percent (this season) to 76.7 percent (last year). To put it in perspective, the league average for hitters in terms of contact percentage is a little over 80 percent generally.

Striking out isn't something that Giants management or fans seem to tolerate very well. Here is a post by jasomack, a member of the McCovey Chronicles blog, concerning the idea of the Giants getting Gordon:

"I’d love the Giants to try something like this. If he played to his career averages, the uptick in defense bump probably makes him comparable to Huff, and he has some real upside. But it’s just a dumb fantasy. Gordon has the attributes the Giants brass undervalues most: patience and youth. He also strikes out a lot. Those things got Fred Lewis deported."

Unfortunately, he makes a great point. Gordon, offensively at least, seems to be very similar to Lewis. I think it's safe to say that doesn't bode well.

2.) Gordon's questionable defense.

The big argument of moving Pablo to first is that his defense is mediocre, and there is evidence of that (depending on how much you believe in advanced defensive metrics). Last season, Sandoval posted a minus-4.8 UZR and a minus-7.1 UZR/150 ("minus" meaning he cost the team runs; "positive" UZR numbers mean that he saved the team runs). This year, he hasn't been much better, as evidenced by his minus-1.5 UZR and minus-22.7 UZR/150.

Unfortunately though, on paper, Gordon doesn't seem to be much better.

While he posted a solid UZR (6.9) in 137 games at third base in 2007, he struggled "Winona Ryder in Mr. Deeds" style in 2008. In 133 games at third, he posted a minus-4.0 UZR. In 2009, he improved that number a little bit (his UZR was only minus-1.7), but considering he played less games, the projection wasn't much better in 2009 (his UZR/150 was minus-5.3) than in 2008 (his UZR/150 was minus-4.7).

Therefore, the Giants are in a dilemma if they acquire Gordon: do they supplant Sandoval at first for a guy who can't compare offensively and may not be that much better defensively at third than Sandoval?

Doesn't sound enticing does it?

Verdict

Overall, there is a lot to like about Gordon, and because of his plate patience and youth, I'm inclined to go after him. However, the reality is, despite Moore being the Michael Bay of the baseball management world (e.g. all flash, no substance), he won't give up Gordon without getting a pretty penny on return, and I don't know how much the Giants can offer after they got hosed on Scott Barnes and Tim Alderson last year. I mean, it sounds good to say that "Oh let's give up John Bowker, Jesus Guzman and maybe a Wendell Fairley" for him, but in reality, general managers aren't usually that dumb. (And I emphasize usually.)

It's not completely impossible, but considering the Giants wants (power) and acquisition style (big-name veterans), it doesn't seem likely that Gordon will be sporting a black and orange uniform this season.

A Look at Zito, Cain and Sanchez's Performances Against the Rockies

2010-05-02T17:42:00.000-07:00

Today was a tough one for the Giants. Aaron Rowand graced Giants fans with his presence back at the top of the lineup, Jhoulys Chacin mowed the offense down and the Giants, once again, avoided the sweep for the third straight series.

It sucks that the Giants played three, top shelf National League teams (St. Louis, Philadelphia and Colorado) and came "Oh-So Close" to sweeping each one. Then again, you can't argue with six out of nine, especially against those caliber of teams.

While the Giants couldn't finish off the Rockies today, Giants fans have to be optimistic about their chances in the NL West. What made the Giants so successful this weekend? Well, I think it's safe to say that Giants fans can thank the starting rotation, specifically Barry Zito and Matt Cain.

If you break down Zito, Cain and Jonathan Sanchez's performances over the weekend, they all show some interesting things.

First, let's look at Zito's numbers on last Friday's start (information courtesy of Brooks Baseball.net and their Pitch F/X tool).

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %	Nibbleness	Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	85.96	87.6	6.37	10.20	33	19 / 57.58%	2 / 6.06%	6.22	0.437
CH (Changeup)	74.24	75.9	6.88	2.68	12	8 / 66.67%	1 / 8.33%	4.15	0.503
SL (Slider)	78.36	81.5	-3.92	1.81	20	14 / 70.00%	2 / 10.00%	8.17	0.476
CU (Curveball)	73.14	76.5	-5.34	-10.98	25	16 / 64.00%	4 / 16.00%	8.65	0.526
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	85.59	87.5	9.25	7.59	29	18 / 62.07%	1 / 3.45%	4.74	0.438
Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate.

From the information above, you can see that Zito was extremely effective with his breaking pitches, specifically his slider and curve ball. Last Friday's start was just another example of Zito's success this year: his fastball velocity is up early this year, which makes his curve and slider, even more effective.

Last year, and in 2008, when his fastball velocity waned in April, he got mashed, simply because the curve and slider were too close in terms of velocity to his fastball (Thus, it being easier for hitters to adjust). That hasn't been the case this year, and Zito arguably has been the Giants' best pitcher this April (it's either him or Tim Lincecum). Granted, his low BABIP (.209) is still a concern (how will his numbers look when his BABIP eventually rises?) but you can't argue with the results from the big lefty.

Cain also posted an impressive start yesterday, finally earning some run support, and also struck some guys out too boot (eight in eight innings pitched), en route to his first victory of the year.

What is most impressive about Cain's start though is how he bounced back despite rough second and third innings in terms of pitch count.

Inning-by-Inning Pitch Totals
Inning	Pitches in Inning	Strikes in Inning	Strike% in Inning	Cumulative Total Pitches
1	16	14	87.50	16
2	22	12	54.55	38
3	27	17	62.96	65
4	11	9	81.82	76
5	13	8	61.54	89
6	8	6	75.00	97
7	12	9	75.00	109
8	13	10	76.92	122

After the second and third, I didn't think Cain would go more than six (seven at the max). The pitch count was high at 65 after the third, and by the fourth, the Giants had already produced a decent impact in terms of run support to cover the Giants right-hander.

However, Cain buckled down and performed admirably. After throwing 49 pitches in the second and third inning combined, and only throwing 29 strikes (his strike percentage in the second and third combined was 59 percent), Cain buckled and threw 57 pitches over the next five innings (including 42 pitches for strikes). Additionally, Cain kept bringing the heat, as his fastball velocity still stayed in the 90-93 MPH range, even after he got past the 100 pitch mark.

Say what you want about Cain: he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, he puts too many ball in play, he doesn't get enough run support, etc. The kid is tough and has a lot of mental makeup, as evidenced by his excellent start against the Rockies.

Unfortunately, you can't say the same of Sanchez and his start today.

If you look at the first inning, Sanchez looked to be on his way to another unbelievable performance. He threw only eight pitches in the first inning, all of them for strikes. The second inning though, he started to show some warning signs. He threw 33 pitches in the two innings combined, 20 of the pitches for strikes (60.6 percent).

And then, in true, "Brian De Palma Post-Mission Impossible" fashion, Sanchez fell off a cliff in the fourth. He threw 32 pitches, and only 15 for strikes (46.88 percent). Though he only allowed one run that inning, he continued to struggle into the fifth, unable to regain the control he had shown in the first inning. It was safe to say, by the fifth, it was just a slippery slope for the Giants in general, especially considering the fact that Chacin was owning the Giants' hitters today like the Kardashian sisters owning athletic stars with their...ugh..."qualities".

Bottom line though for Sanchez? His problem today proved to be the problem he's had his whole career: consistency with his command.

Check out the strikezone plot for him in today's game.

Not exactly impressive, huh? A lot of white in that strike zone.

Then again, you have to expect games like this from Sanchez. He has incredible strikeout stuff, but his control is going to wane up and down. That's just the reality of who he is as a pitcher. The problem is, you wish these games happen against the Astros and Nationals, teams whom the Giants have a good shot against in terms of getting run support to back up "off" performances like this one today from Sanchez.

Unfortunately, it happens against the Rockies and against an impressive pitcher like Chacin. Oh well. You can't win 'em all, right?

What can we take away from the Giants' two through four pitchers and their performances this weekend? Zito continues to be efficient, Cain can bounce back and Sanchez needs to better composure from inning to inning if he wants to be more like Johan Santana and less like Oliver Perez.

Zito Wins, Twenty-Three and Some YouTube

2010-05-01T11:55:00.000-07:00

Don't have much time today to write an extensive piece (sorry...I'm human, not Woody Paige), so I just wanted to write a quick post about a few thoughts.

Zito Beats Rockies, Improves to 4-0, and is Slowly Gaining Back Fans (though he shouldn't have lost them in the first place).

Just imagine an alternate universe where Barry Zito did not get that seven-year, $126 million contact in 2007. Just imagine that he was only paid say...$80 million. Just imagine that Peter Magowan and Brian Sabean didn't panic because they thought Zito was going to command a TON on the open market. When you think about that, Zito is a pretty likable guy, in fact more than likable. He's funny, he's a solid clubhouse guy, he is consistent, he stays healthy. What more do you want in a pitcher? So he doesn't have a 90-plus fastball. That's why he has his curve (and change, which is working well now because his fastball is actually touching in the 85-88 MPH range now).

And yet, everybody has hated Zito for the past three years. Everybody says "Get Zito off our team!" though in reality, he hasn't really been the problem. The problem is Sabean. The problem is the offense. The problem is a beer that costs nine bucks at the Doggie Diner at AT&T Park (and a Bud Light mind you). Not Zito. I mean, he organized Guitar Hero contests in the locker room after Barry Bonds left. Did Russ Ortiz do that stuff? I didn't think so.

Let's show some Zito love, and let's do it while we can. You know he's not going to have that great of a month again this year (I point to the .209 BABIP; no way it's going to be that low by the end of the year).

Twenty-Three Years Old

Shoot. I turn twenty-three today, that weird stage where you're past the "Let's rock it!" days of twenty-one and the "Wow I'm getting older than I thought" days of twenty-five. In consolation, today is also Wes Anderson's 41st birthday. The bad part of that coincidence? I've never seen any Wes Anderson movies (though I do want to).

Tony Batista Does Something Other Than Strikeout

Yes, Tony Batista was terrible. A guy with a career BB/K ratio of 0.36 and a wOBA of .320 certainly won't be knocking on the Baseball Writers of America's door for a Hall of Fame nomination anytime soon. That being said, Batista happened to be good for some things:

1.) Dingers (221 to be exact!)
2.) Fun defense (if 2.6 RF/G at third is fun).
3.) Scaring small Japanese men (second only to Bob Sapp).

Don't get the third? See it for yourself.

Panda Progress? Sandoval's Improvement at the Plate from 2009 to 2010

2010-04-30T12:10:00.000-07:00

Say what you want about the Giants offense: they can't drive in runs, they don't have enough power, their players fantasy-wise are about as enticing as the idea of Mo'Nique doing a spread for Playboy magazine. (In actuality, I really like Mo'Nique as an actress; I just want to see her clothed...she's not my type body-wise.)

I understand as a Giants fan the sentiment. However, while you can say those things about the Giants' overall offense, you certainly can't say those things of one player:

Pablo Sandoval.

On paper, the progress Sandoval has made at the plate has been incredible.

First off, I know some people at first glance may not be too impressed with his overall numbers. While his batting average (.373), OPS (1.031) and wOBA (.448) are incredible, the obvious statistics don't jump at you. He has only three home runs and nine RBI (granted RBI are kind of hard to get when you have Edgar Renteria and Aaron Rowand batting ahead of you, but for now, let's use the stat), and he has gotten lucky with a .389 BABIP (which is not sustainable if you consider the league average is .296 currently).

If you look at the whole profile this year though, and especially look at where Sandoval was as a hitter at this time last year, the progress he has made is as obvious as a Goodfellas picture in an Italian restaurant.

Here are Sandoval's splits during the month of March/April the past two seasons.

2009: .307 average, one home run, six RBI, three BB, 12 SO, .350 OBP, .790 OPS, 0.25 BB/K , .341 wOBA, 1.94 GB/FB, 5.9 percent HR/FB, 10.4 wRC.

2010: .373 average, three home run, nine RBI, 10 BB, eight SO, .441 OBP, 1.031 OPS, 1.25 BB/K, .448 wOBA, 1.38 GB/FB, 11.5 percent HR/FB, 20.1 wRC.

Sit with those numbers for a second. They definitely put a wrench in all those naysayers' arguments who felt Sandoval going into last year was nothing more than a glorified Randall Simon.

As you can see, Sandoval has improved in every statistical category from this time last year. Three numbers jump out the most: the BB/K ratio, the GB/FB ratio and the HR/FB ratio.

In terms of the BB/K ratio, Sandoval has made an incredible adjustment at the plate in terms of patience. At this time in 2009, Sandoval was known for swinging at pitches at his head (and sometimes making contact with them).

That hasn't been the case anymore. His walk percentage has improved and sits at 10.8 percent going into today's game against Colorado (his walk percentage was only 3.8 percent last year).

Yet the strikeout percentage and BB/K ratio, despite the improvement in walks, is still extraordinary. A guy who has a BB/K ratio over 0.50 is a solid player. A guy who has it over one? Chances are that isn't sustainable in the post-Bonds era unless his name rhymes with "Cool Hose". Nonetheless, it is still noteworthy (if temporary) considering the kind of hitter Sandoval was when he first broke into the league in 2008 (when his BB/K ratio was projected in the 0.40-0.60 range because of his lack of ability to take a walk in the minors).

What has been the reason for the decreased strikeout percentage? Sandoval is swinging less this year, but is making better contact.

Here's the evidence: his O-swing percentage (swinging at pitches outside of the strikezone) is 39.2 percent (down from 41.8 percent last year) and his swing percentage is 51.8 percent (down from 58.2 percent last year). However, he had made better contact on pitches in and out of the strikezone (77.5 and 90.9 percent, respectively, totaling a 84.5 percent contact rate; in 2009, those percentages were 75.2, 87.7 and 82.4 percent, respectively).

A lot of Giants fans, including myself, said that if Sandoval wanted to be less like Jeff Francoeur and more like Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, Sandoval was going to have be more disciplined at the plate. He has done that since last year, and especially since June of last season when his BB/K ratio was over 0.80 every month except for July (when it was 0.29).

When you look at the GB/FB and HR/FB ratios, they aren't exactly impressive either at first glance if you compare him to Cabrera or Pujols. Yet Sandoval, who primarily is known for hitting balls on the ground, has certainly gotten better in terms of putting the ball in the air, and putting some power behind it.

If you examined his HR/FB ratios last year, he sported a 5.9 and 7.4 percent HR/FB ratio in the first two months of play (closer to Eugenio Velez to be frank). The problem? He just hit too many balls on the ground. His groundball rate was 53.2 percent and 53.1 percent the first two months of play, and his line drive rate was under 20 percent and his flyball rate was under 34 percent both months in 2009.

This year has been a slightly different story. While his line drive rate could be better (17.3 percent), his flyball rate is up (34.7) and even better, he is making those flyballs count as evidenced by his HR/FB ratio (11.5). And, if Sandoval can break out in June, August and September/October this season like he did last season in those categories, then Sandoval not only will be a legitimate All-Star, he will be an MVP candidate by the end of the year (an "Inglorious Basterds for Best Picture at the Academy Awards" longshot candidate, but candidate nonetheless; it's hard to compete with Pujols).

Sandoval is far from perfect. His O-swing percentage is still far too high (despite his ability to make contact outside the strike zone, swinging out of the strike zone just makes pitcher's jobs easier) and defensively he hasn't show much improvement in 2010. He has committed three errors this year and his UZR/150 currently stands at negative-22.7 at third base. While he still can improve, it probably would be in the Giants' best interest in the long-run if Sandoval moved to first.

(Though that is certainly hard to do with Aubrey Huff blocking him there...curses "veteran" status! Brian Sabean organizes this team like a Baltimore stevedore union...sorry for "The Wire" reference; it couldn't be helped.)

Despite those negatives, as a Giants fan, you have to be happy with where the "Panda" is at in terms of his career. He is still incredibly young (only 23 years old) and he has shown a strong ability to improve his hitting skills and approach from month to month. If he continues that progress, he'll make it easier for Giants fans to forget about Barry Bonds and the Rowand contact (not completely of course).

There still is a long way to go this season for Sandoval and the Giants. However, it will be important to pay attention to him as the season continues. With Huff most likely a guy that will underwhelm in the cleanup hole, and so many questions concerning this Giants lineup (How long will Nate Schierholtz carry this hot streak? Will John Bowker play? Can Freddy Sanchez be the "All-Star Sanchez" pre-trade?) Sandoval not only will be counted on to carry this team offensively, but even more so than last year.

Judging by this first of month of play, he certainly is capable of doing it.

Who the Heck is Eric Hacker of the Fresno Grizzlies?

2010-04-28T12:53:00.000-07:00

Thankfully for Giants fans, Todd Wellemeyer proved that he wasn't a complete failure last night as he pitched seven innings in the Giants' 6-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies (which is always a nice victory to have).

However, despite the solid performance against the defending NL Champs, there are still a lot of questions concerning Wellemeyer and the fifth spot in the rotation.

If you look at his numbers so far, they haven't been good. In his first four starts, Wellemeyer hasn't shown much control, as evidenced by his 14 walks in 21.1 innings pitched. He has an ERA currently of 6.33 and a FIP of 6.83. Also, the velocity simply hasn't been there on his pitches. He throws his fastball over 67 percent of the time, but it only has an average velocity of 89.4 MPH (the slowest of his career so far).

Granted, fastball velocity isn't everything. But when you're giving up more flyballs than groundballs (he has a 0.72 GB/FB ratio) and hitters are making a lot of contact against you (he has an 84.2 percent contact rate), then you're not doing a lot to prove that you're worth a spot in the rotation.

Is Wellemeyer capable of turning things around? He could, but I think it's safe to say it's only a matter of time before somebody replaces Wellemeyer in the starting rotation.

Now, who is that candidate?

So far, there have been two popular names: Madison Bumgarner and Kevin Pucetas.

In terms of the former, Bumgarner was the odds-on favorite to be the Giants' starting pitcher (I even went out on a limb and said he was the Giants' only option). Then Spring Training happened, he got shellacked and his velocity hovered under 90 MPH. By the end of Spring Training, Bumgarner's stock took a bigger hit than Halle Berry's after she did the movie "Catwoman."

Bumgarner has turned it around after a poor Spring Training and a poor first two starts with the Girzzlies (apparently, his velocity is back in the 90's again). Unfortunately, Bumgarner could use more time in the Pacific Coast League, and considering the fact he's only 20-years-old, there is no need to rush him.

The second option, Pucetas, like Wellemeyer, had a solid Spring. However, like Wellemeyer, that hasn't necessarily translated into a solid April in 2010. Despite a 1-1 record and a 3.98 ERA, Pucetas has a WHIP of 1.72 and he doesn't have the strikeout numbers to back it up (only 10 strikeouts in 20.1 IP). If anything, Giants fans are looking at another Joe Martinez/Ryan Sadowski with Pucetas. There is some potential that he could have a good couple of starts. Yet once Major League hitters have seen him a few times, he probably will get batted around, simply because his stuff isn't all that great.

Who do the Giants go with should Wellemeyer be an extreme detriment to the starting rotation?

How about Eric Hacker?

Chances are, Hacker's name is about as familiar with Giants fans as Bree Olson is with Christian activists (I would show you a picture of her, but I couldn't find anything tame).

Well, Giants fans should know about Hacker because he is the best pitcher currently in Fresno. In four starts, he is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and has 24 strikeouts in 21.2 IP.

It doesn't matter if you don't know his name or not. Those numbers are impressive.

However, is Hacker's a hot start a flash in the pan? Or is it an indicator of things to come?

It's tough to tell at this point. There just isn't enough information at the Major League level to determine whether or not he could be a surprise No. 5 starter for the Giants.

Despite being 27 years old, Hacker has only one stint in the Major Leagues: a three inning sample with the Pirates last year. In three games with the Bucs, he allowed four hits, two earned runs, two walks and struck out one. His fastball averaged 90.1 MPH and he threw a slider along with a curve ball (though 34.8 percent of his pitches were indeterminable, which may be a sign he has another pitch).

Hence, the numbers aren't great for Hacker. That being said, his minor league numbers are pretty interesting.

His control has seemed to be off and on throughout his minor league career. Formerly in the New York Yankees' system, Hacker posted solid K/BB ratios in 2007 in Single-A (3.00), 2008 in Advanced Single-A and Double-A (3.44 and 3.00, respectively) and in 2009 in Triple-A (3.00).

Unfortunately, the FIP hasn't really corresponded. While his FIP was solid in 2007 (3.54) and 2008 (2.90 and 2.87, respectively), that was far from the case in 2009 (5.26 in Triple-A), during his last stint with the Yankees organization

After he was traded to Pittsburgh for Romulo Sanchez, Hacker was sent to Pittsburgh's Triple-A organization and performed well. While his K/BB ratio wasn't spectacular (1.78), his FIP was solid at 3.85, and he was named International League Player of the Week during the week ending August 9th.

What can Giants fans expect from Hacker? Like I said, it's tough to tell, but he certainly is an interesting candidate to replace WellemeyerBABIP numbers over his career (it has only been under .310 twice: in 2007 in Single-A and in 2008 in Double-A), so it is possible Hacker could be a decent, end-of-the-rotation pitcher at the Major League level should he get lucky and have a good defense behind him.

At this point, Wellemeyer is the man in the fifth spot for now. As the season progresses though, don't be surprised if Hacker becomes a much more enticing option than Pucetas or Bumgarner, especially as he continues to pitch well in Fresno.

Trying to Understand John Bowker, "MLB-Version"

2010-04-27T13:23:00.000-07:00

I really, really like John Bowker. I admit that. I like him more than Nate Schierholtz (though nothing against Nate, it's like comparing Penelope Cruz and Salma Hayek; I just like Penelope and Bowker a little more), which is why I petitioned him for the starting right field position and supported manager Bruce Bochy's call on Opening Day.

Why do I like him? I'm not really sure. Maybe he's from Sacramento, and being a Sacramento-resident, I feel obligated to support my own. Maybe I like the power potential he showed when he burst on the scene in 2008.

However, despite my gravitation toward Bowker, I have to admit one thing: Bowker hasn't really impressed too much at the Major League level.

In 2008, Bowker put up solid numbers, hitting 10 home runs and driving in 43 RBI in 350 plate appearances with the Giants. His OBP (.300), OPS (.703) or wOBA (.307) weren't that impressive, but I think the 10 home runs gave some Giants fans hope that Bowker was on the cusp of being at least a solid, regularly-contributing player to the Giants roster in a couple of years.

One of the main beefs about Bowker at the time was his plate approach. In 2008 with the Giants, Bowker had a BB/K ratio of 0.26, which in all honesty is not very good. Thus, if Bowker was going to contribute at the next level, he needed to improve his eye at the plate and cut down the strikeouts or at the very least, up the walk numbers and ability to get on-base.

Surprisingly, in 2009 in Fresno, Bowker did that and more.

After never posting a BB/K ratio higher than 0.40 at any professional level prior to 2009, Bowker was incredible in Fresno. People talk about the home runs (21), the OPS (1.047) or the average (.342), but the most eye-popping statistic in my mind was Bowker's 1.16 BB/K ratio (an 86 point improvement from the previous season, which is equivalent to Robert Downey's career jump after 2005).

Everybody, including myself, was convinced. Bowker was set and ready for the Major League level.

However, he struggled in his callup in 2009, and looked far from comfortable in the batter's box for the Giants. In 73 plate appearances, Bowker hit .194, posted an OPS of .620 and sported a wOBA of .277. And, unlike 2008, he didn't add much power either. He had only six extra-base hits (including two home runs).

The worst part of it all for Bowker though happened to be his dip in his BB/K ratio. After putting up unbelievable numbers in 2009 in Fresno, he didn't seem to be any better from the 2008 version Giants fans saw in San Francisco. His BB/K ratio in 2009 with the Giants was 0.22 (compounded by a strikeout rate of 26.9 percent).

Then again though, us Bowker defenders tried not to fret too much. We pointed out to the small sample in the Major Leagues as reason to not completely jump ship on him. We pointed out that the large sample in Fresno was for real, and with Hensley Meulens (the Fresno hitting coach in 2009) taking over the Giants hitting coach position in 2010, Bowker was ready to break out.

Despite a solid Spring Training, Bowker continues to show more of the same.

In 45 plate appearances in 2010, Bowker is hitting .186 with a .525 OPS and a wOBA of .222. His BB/K ratio is almost laughable at 0.17 and his strikeout rate (27.9 percent) is almost six points higher than it was in 2008.

None of it makes sense. This was supposed to be Bowker's year. Everything was in place: the hitting coach, the starting gig, the "nothing to prove" factor in Fresno.

And yet, here we are again, with Bowker most likely heading down to Fresno once Freddy Sanchez returns off the Disabled List.

What is wrong with Bowker? What made him such a stud in 2009 in Triple-A? Why does he look like Albert Pujols in the Pacific Coast League, but in the Majors, he seems to swing at every breaking ball in the dirt?

At this point, I don't understand, and many Giants fans do not either. Yes, he is somewhat getting better. He swings at less pitches outside the strike zone (24.6 percent) in comparison to his first Major League stint in 2008 (when it was 32.3 percent). He has made better contact this year (76.7 percent) than last year (72.2) percent. He hasn't hit many flyballs (his FB percentage is 29.0 percent this year), but he makes those flyballs count (11.1 percent HR/FB ratio).

Bowker is getting there. He hasn't made the progress or had the luck we Giants fans hoped for this year, but Bowker is a better hitter now than he was in 2008. The numbers prove it.

However, with Bochy as manager, and average defensive skills, Bowker doesn't look like he has much time to prove to the Giants that he is the guy to be playing everyday for Orange and Black. Giants management and fans seem to be more in favor of other outfielders like Schierholtz and Torres, and in many ways, you can't blame them. Schierholtz is hitting well (.819 OPS, .370 wOBA, and 0.60 BB/K ratio) and Torres provides a ton of defensive value. Those are two things you can't necessarily say Bowker possesses at this moment.

As a Giants and Bowker fan, I hope he can gets his way out of this mess. I hope his BABIP (currently .233) rises and he can finally look better on paper for the Giants fans who constantly point to his average and other conventional stats (RBI!) as reasons why he is a bust.

Bowker is not a bust...yet. He just needs to catch some breaks.

Or at least that is what I'm telling myself now.

The Early Season Struggles of Thomas Neal in Richmond

2010-04-25T23:01:00.000-07:00

Richmond is a team loaded with talent. Just look at the roster (especially offensively) from top to bottom, and there will be a lot of names that will jump out at you. Darren Ford, Conor Gillaspie, Nick Noonan, Brandon Crawford, Roger Kieschnick, Thomas Neal, etc. Most of the players on this Flying Squirrles roster tore it up in the California League for the San Jose Giants, arguably the best team in Minor League Baseball in 2009.

Well, how's it going for these former California League studs?

At this point, the results haven't been too hot.

Darren Ford is putting up solid average numbers (.286 average, .723 OPS), but he is tied for the team lead in strikeouts (15) and hasn't been that efficient on the base paths (only four stolen bases on seven tries). Gillaspie is showing some power (three home runs; .738 OPS), but defensively he continues to prove that third base is a bad fit (three errors). Crawford got off to a hot start, but has cooled dramatically (he is hitting .222 with a .661 OPS). Noonan continues to show his age (e.g. that he still is far from ready from the Major League level) and Kieschnick is proving to be a strikeout machine (15) without the homers (zero) or walks (three) to back it up.

The most startling start, however? That honor belongs, unfortunately, to Neal.

Neal on paper looks awful. His batting average is .203 and while his OBP isn't too awful (.311), his slugging numbers have been less than thrilling (.359 slugging, .670 OPS).

To put things into perspective, Neal posted a slugging percentage of .579 and an OPS of 1.010 in 2009 in Advanced Single-A. He hasn't posted an OPS below .800 since his first season in rookie ball, where he posted a .664 OPS in Arizona.

What gives?

In all honesty, it is tough to tell at this point. Despite, the average looking bad, Neal's plate patience has been solid for the most part. If you compare his BB/K ratio (0.57) so far to guys like Ford (0.13), Kieschnick (0.20) and Crawford (0.40), Neal does not look so bad. One of the big compliments about Neal's offensive ability was his improved plate patience in San Jose last year (he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.66). The same seems to be true this year. He still is drawing a good amount of walks despite the lofty strikeout totals, which is something you can't necessarily say of guys like Kieschnick and Ford.

What has really killed Neal so far this season has been the obvious categories. His average looks awful, as does his RBI totals (only six), and considering Gillaspie has hit more home runs in comparison (three to two), which was far from the case last year in San Jose (Neal hit 22 home runs; Gillaspie hit four), it is easy to see why a lot of Giants fans may be starting to panic about Neal's potential (especially with John Bowker continuing to underwhelm at the Major League level).

In my opinion? I think the lack of big-time power numbers early this season shouldn't be too big of a concern. Neal is still accumulating bases (his 23 TB is third-most on the team), and he is still drawing a good amount of walks, so overall, there should be no reason for Giants fans to panic. He just hasn't had a lot of things fall for him so far, which is bound to change as the season progresses. In my mind, high-strikeout, low-walk guys like Ford or Kieschnick are a much bigger worry to me than Neal at this point.

So what should Giants fans think about Neal? He is still a Top-5 prospect in the Giants system, despite this slow start and disappointing Spring Training. I think fans had illusions that he would be a guaranteed call up this season when I think that was unfair. He is still a year away, minimum, from reaching the big-leagues. I have felt that about him since the end of last year, despite the eye-popping numbers he put up in the California League.

There are a lot of things to worry about on this Richmond team (Is Gillaspie and Crawford going to reach their potential? Can Kieschnick's power come back?), but just keep this in mind: Neal is fine and will be fine as the season progresses.